adaptation and forest management in great lakes...

Stephen Handler USDA Forest Service and NIACS OSU Climate Change Webinar March 25, 2014

Adaptation and forest management

in Great Lakes forests:

custom-made, real-world examples

Acknowledgments

www.forestadaptation.org

Chris Swanston, Director cswanston@fs.fed.us

Leslie Brandt, Central Hardwoods and Urban Forests lbrandt@fs.fed.us

Patricia Butler, Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic prbutler@mtu.edu

Maria Janowiak, New England mjanowiak02@fs.fed.us

Danielle Shannon Data Analysis and Design dshannon@mtu.edu

Northern Institute of Applied

Climate Science

www.forestadaptation.org

Climate Change Response Framework

Website: www.forestadaptation.org

Central Hardwoods

Urban Forests

Northwoods

Central Appalachians

Mid-Atlantic

New England

Great Lakes Forests

Photos: Heather Keough, Hiawatha NF, Bradford Slaughter

Great Lakes Forests

Figure: http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/futures/current_conditions/biodiversity/

Climate and Great Lakes Forests

Figure: SeaWiFS Project, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, ORBIMAGE

Forest Ownership

Figure: http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/futures/current_conditions/biodiversity/

Forest Values

Management Complexity

Added Complexity

Climate Change Response Framework

Website: www.forestadaptation.org

Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability

Assessments

Drafts Available: http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/niacs/climate/draft_docs/

Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessments

Consider a range of future climates

Not considering changes in management, land use, or policy

Do not make recommendations

Central Hardwoods Assessment: www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/45430

Observed Temperature Change

Sources: www.climatewizard.org

Winter (Dec-Feb)

Summer (Jun-Aug)

Spring (Mar-May)

Fall (Sep-Nov)

Observed Precipitation Change

Sources: Saunders et al. 2012

Frequency of 3”+ rainstorms

Wisconsin Michigan

Projected Climate Change

Least Projected Change

Most Projected Change

PCM

Low emissions (B1) GFDL

High emissions (A1FI)

Projected Precipitation Change (in)

Sources: Stoner et al. 2012, Hayhoe et al. 2011.

Low High

Model Results – Tree Atlas 2070-2100 Low

2070-2100 High

Importance Value

Low

High

Legend

all_spp_current

fia_802

1.000000

1.000001 - 4.000000

4.000001 - 6.000000

6.000001 - 9.000000

9.000001 - 11.000000

11.000001 - 14.000000

14.000001 - 23.000000

Quaking Aspen

Source: www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/, Iverson et al.

Model Results – LANDIS

Sources: Duveneck et al. 2014, Handler et al. 2014

White Pine

Impacts on Forests

• CO2 fertilization

• Altered soil moisture

• Extreme weather events

• Less frozen ground

• Increased risk of fire

• Species range shifts

• Expanded pest and disease ranges

Interactions are likely, but hard to predict.

Sources: Handler et al. 2012, Handler et al. 2014

Putting it all Together

Forest Community Vulnerability

Source: Butler et al. In Prep

So how are we supposed to

deal with all this?

Adapt.

Adaptation = taking action to prepare for climate change.

Adaptation activities can build on sustainable management, conservation, and restoration of forests

Parry et al. 2007, SCBD 2009, Groves et al. 2010

Climate Change Response Framework

Website: www.forestadaptation.org

Forest Adaptation Resources (FAR):

Designed for a variety of land managers with various goals and objectives

Does not make recommendations

Menu of adaptation strategies & approaches for forest ecosystems

Source: www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/40543

Swanston and Janowiak 2012; www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/40543

1. DEFINE area of interest,

management objectives, etc.

2. ASSESS climate change

impacts and vulnerabilities.

3. EVALUATE management

objectives given climate impacts.

4. IDENTIFY and implement adaptation

approaches.

5. MONITOR and evaluate

effectiveness.

Adaptation Workbook

Putting Adaptation Into Practice

1) There is not a single “answer”

2) Critical to start with:

3) Flexibility is key

Manager’s Guide

Decision Tree E-Z Whiz-bang

Tool

a. The place b. Management goals/objectives

A Customized Approach

Encourage Change

Resist Change

Tolerate Change

Adaptation Strategies

Resist Change

1: Sustain fundamental ecological functions.

2: Existing biological stressors.

3: Protect from severe fire and wind.

4: Maintain or create refugia.

5: Species and structural diversity.

6: Ecosystem redundancy.

7: Landscape connectivity.

8: Genetic diversity.

9: Facilitate species transitions.

10: Plan for and respond to disturbance.

Adaptation Strategies

Resist Change

Tolerate Change

1: Sustain fundamental ecological functions.

2: Existing biological stressors.

3: Protect from severe fire and wind.

4: Maintain or create refugia.

5: Species and structural diversity.

6: Ecosystem redundancy.

7: Landscape connectivity.

8: Genetic diversity.

9: Facilitate species transitions.

10: Plan for and respond to disturbance.

Adaptation Strategies

Resist Change

Encourage Change

Tolerate Change

1: Sustain fundamental ecological functions.

2: Existing biological stressors.

3: Protect from severe fire and wind.

4: Maintain or create refugia.

5: Species and structural diversity.

6: Ecosystem redundancy.

7: Landscape connectivity.

8: Genetic diversity.

9: Facilitate species transitions.

10: Plan for and respond to disturbance.

Climate Change Response Framework

Website: www.forestadaptation.org

Real-world Examples

www.forestadaptation.org

Flexibility!

Real-world Examples

www.forestadaptation.org

North Shore Forest Restoration Project

FOREST

TYPE PROPOSED MANAGEMENT POSSIBLE ADAPTATION ACTIONS

Paper

Birch

Regenerate paper birch Choose wetter, north-facing sites

Prioritize healthier, younger sites

Underplant to increase

diversity (white pine,

white spruce, yellow

birch, cedar)

Increase % of white pine, decrease

% of white spruce

Plant additional spp (bur oak, red

oak, jack pine, red maple)

Real-world Examples

www.forestadaptation.org

Menominee Oak Wilt Restoration

FOREST TYPE

PROPOSED

MANAGEMENT POSSIBLE ADAPTATION ACTIONS

Northern

Hardwoods

Treat oak wilt pockets

(remove infected

trees & stumps, sever

roots)

Plant small % of southern species

(white, bur, chinkapin oak; shagbark

hickory)

Allow natural regeneration of red

oak, white pine

Real-world Examples

www.forestadaptation.org

Ottawa NF Aspen Management

FOREST TYPE

PROPOSED

MANAGEMENT POSSIBLE ADAPTATION ACTIONS

Aspen (40+

years)

Regenerate older

aspen stands

Many standard actions are “win-win”

opportunities

Retain red oak, white pine, elm, red

maple, cedar, hemlock

Maintain a diverse range of age

classes across the landscape

Real-world Examples

www.forestadaptation.org

Atlas Timberlands

FOREST TYPE

PROPOSED

MANAGEMENT POSSIBLE ADAPTATION ACTIONS

Northern

Hardwoods

Sustainable timber

harvest – frozen

ground conditions

in winter

Test new summer harvest practices

Planning and investment in summer

harvest infrastructure

Source: http://www.vlt.org/atlas-timberlands

Climate Change Response Framework

Website: www.forestadaptation.org

Final Thoughts

1. Learn more: www.forestadaptation.org

2. Get in touch with questions: sdhandler@fs.fed.us, (906) 483-6303

3. NIACS is here to help!

Contacts

www.forestadaptation.org

Chris Swanston, Director cswanston@fs.fed.us

Leslie Brandt, Central Hardwoods and Urban Forests lbrandt@fs.fed.us

Patricia Butler, Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic prbutler@mtu.edu

Maria Janowiak, New England mjanowiak02@fs.fed.us

Danielle Shannon Data Analysis and Design dshannon@mtu.edu

Stephen Handler, Northwoods sdhandler@fs.fed.us

Generally expected to decrease Little Change

Generally expected to increase

New Suitable Habitat (Tree Atlas)

Not sure (Disagreement among models)

Substantial Declines: Black spruce

Eastern redbud* Mountain maple*

Smaller declines:

Balsam fir Paper birch

Quaking aspen Rock elm*

White spruce Wild plum*

*Species only modeled by the Tree Atlas (DISTRIB) Note: model results only

Bigtooth aspen Chokecherry*

Eastern hophornbeam* Eastern white pine

Jack pine Northern red oak

Northern white-cedar Pin cherry* Red maple Red pine

Striped maple* Sugar maple

Swamp white oak* Tamarack*

Yellow birch

Substantial Increases: American beech Bitternut hickory

Black ash Black locust*

Black oak Black walnut* Black willow*

Eastern cottonwood* Hackberry*

Red mulberry* River birch+

Shagbark hickory* Silver maple* Slippery elm*

Smaller Increases: American elm*

American hornbeam* Boxelder*

Bur oak Butternut*

Eastern hemlock White ash White oak

Chinkapin oak* Eastern redcedar*

Flowering dogwood* Gray birch*

Honeylocust* Mockernut hickory*

Ohio buckeye* Osage-orange* Pignut hickory*

Pin oak* Post oak* Sassafras*

Scarlet oak* Shingle oak* Sweet birch* Sycamore*

Yellow-poplar*

(Atlas/LANDIS): American basswood (0/++)

Balsam poplar (--/0) Black cherry (++/0)

Green ash (-/+) Northern pin oak (0/++)

Climate Change Projections for Individual Tree Species

PCM B1 Scenario (Less Change)

Landscape: Northern Wisconsin/Western Upper Michigan

Source: Janowiak, M.K.; et al. 2014 (In press). Forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis for northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan: a report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station. www.forestadaptation.org.

Generally expected to decrease Little Change

Generally expected to increase

New Suitable Habitat (Tree Atlas)

Not sure (Disagreement among models)

Substantial Declines: Balsam fir

Black spruce Butternut*

Chokecherry* Mountain maple*

Paper birch Pin cherry*

Quaking aspen White spruce Yellow birch

Smaller declines: Black ash

Eastern white pine Jack pine

Northern white-cedar Striped maple*

Sugar maple Tamarack*

*Species only modeled by the Tree Atlas (DISTRIB) Note: model results only

Green ash Northern red oak

Red pine

Substantial Increases: American elm*

American hornbeam* Bitternut hickory

Black locust* Black oak

Black walnut* Black willow*

Boxelder* Eastern cottonwood*

Eastern redbud* Hackberry*

Red mulberry* River birch*

Shagbark hickory* Silver maple* Slippery elm*

White oak Wild plum*

Smaller Increases:

American basswood American beech

Black cherry Bur oak

Eastern hophornbeam* Peachleaf willow* Swamp white oak*

White ash

Black hickory* Blackgum*

Blackjack oak* Chestnut oak* Chinkapin oak*

Common persimmon* Eastern redcedar*

Flowering dogwood* Gray birch*

Honeylocust* Mockernut hickory* Northern catalpa*

Ohio buckeye* Osage-orange* Pignut hickory*

Pin oak* Post oak* Sassafras*

Scarlet oak* Shellbark hickory*

Shingle oak* Sugarberry* Sweet birch* Sweeygum* Sycamore*

Yellow-poplar*

(Atlas/LANDIS): Balsam poplar (0/--) Bigtooth aspen (0/--)

Eastern hemlock (0/--) Northern pin oak (0/++)

Red maple (-/+)

Climate Change Projections for Individual Tree Species

GFDL A1FI Scenario (Greater Change)

Landscape: Northern Wisconsin/Western Upper Michigan

Source: Janowiak, M.K.; et al. 2014 (In press). Forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis for northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan: a report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station. www.forestadaptation.org.

Global Surface Temp

Sources: www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/01/global-temperature-2013

Global Surface Temp

Sources: www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/01/global-temperature-2013

Global Surface Temp

Sources: http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=47

Global Surface Temp

Sources: http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=47

http://www.brighton73.freeserve.co.uk/gw/paleo/400000yrfig.htm; see also: Hansen et al. 1990, Petit et al. 1999, Shackleton 2000, Ruddiman 2006, Shakun et al. 2012

Change happens.

IPCC 2007

The average global surface temperature has risen 1.4 ºF over the past 100 years

Change happens.

www.heavy.com

How it usually works

www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/national/polar-vortex/

Weak and wobbly jetstream

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/

Michigan: 6.2 degrees

below avg. for February

Alaska: 14.8 degrees

above avg. for January

The big picture

www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/2

Last Spring Frost

Sources: http://ccr.aos.wisc.edu/resources/data_scripts/LCC_MI/

Low High

Nights below 0 ºF

Sources: http://ccr.aos.wisc.edu/resources/data_scripts/LCC_MI/

Low High

Snowpack more than 10in.

Sources: http://ccr.aos.wisc.edu/resources/data_scripts/LCC_MI/

Low High

CO2 Fertilization

Sources: Ainsworth and Long 2005, 2007; Jones et al. 2005; Norby et al. 2005

Increased photosynthesis

Increase in water use efficiency

Greater biomass (trees: 28%)

Ainsworth and Long 2005, Jones et al. 2005, Norby et al. 2005, Ainsworth and Rogers 2007

Altered Soil Moisture

Water loss from soils (evaporation)

Greater uncertainty about future precipitation, but great risk of summer moisture stress

Water loss from trees (transpiration)

Groundwater recharge

Runoff

Precipitation

Changes in Species Distributions

Sugar Maple

Source: Louis Iverson et al. (US Forest Service)

2070-2100 Low

2070-2100 High

Current Distribution Importance

Value

Low

High

Legend

all_spp_current

fia_802

1.000000

1.000001 - 4.000000

4.000001 - 6.000000

6.000001 - 9.000000

9.000001 - 11.000000

11.000001 - 14.000000

14.000001 - 23.000000