aacrao 2011

Higher Education at a Crossroads:

The Five Worrisome Trends

Is the Higher Education Bubble About to Burst?

Housing: Easy access to credit, fueled demand (multiple offers), fueled prices (competing bids), fueled trading up and flipping…

Higher Education: Easy access to credit for students, fueled demand for higher-priced colleges, fueled application and enrollment growth (especially at for-profits), fueled colleges to borrow more to meet student “needs”

The end of the climbing wall era?

Worry #1

The jobless recovery and what it means for families

Worry #2

The end of the records: applications and enrollment

Applications to College

In 2009, about 75% of colleges reported receiving more applications than in the previous year. Only 18% of institutions reported application decreases.

74% of Fall 2008 freshmen applied to three or more colleges, an increase of 13 percentage points over the last 18 years. The percentage of students who submitted seven or more applications also increased, reaching 22% in Fall 2008.

SOURCE: National Association for College Admission Counseling

Increases in Undergraduate Enrollment, 1998-2008

Projected Change in Number of High School Graduates 2011-2021

Worry #3

Unsustainable tuition rates and student debt

Tuition & Fees

SOURCE: The College Board

Tuition & Fees Compared to State Appropriations

SOURCE: The College Board

Tuition Discounting

Percentage growth since 1990-91 in average price for tuition, fees, room, and board, adjusted for inflation:

Distribution of Debt, 2007-8

Total Debt for Graduate Degree Recipients, 2007-8

Worry #4

The for-profit bubble

Undergraduate Enrollment by Type of College, 1998-2008

3-year default rates are 5 times as high as 2-year rates at some colleges

Worry #5

Families unwilling to pay big bucks just for the credential

Academically Adrift?

Price-sensitive students and families Asking: What are we paying for? Want quality and job placement. Defining and paying for the core experience.

.

Academically Adrift?

Limited or no learning by a majority of students45% of students made no gains on the Collegiate Learning Assessment during their first two years in college 36% made no gains over the entire four years

How much faculty demand matters Students who were assigned more books and more papers

to write learned moreThose who spent more hours studying alone learned more

Field of study matters Humanities, social sciences, hard sciences, and math did

relatively well. Students majoring in business, education, and social work

did not.

Increasingly, Faculty Members Are Part-Time and Nontenured

We’re Both in the Information Delivery Business

Audrey Williams June: Academic workplace issues

Eric Hoover: Admissions | Head Count blog

Josh Fischman: Faculty and Technology

Jennifer Ruark: Features and Chronicle Review

Scott Carlson: Facilities and Architecture

Goldie Blumenstyk: College finance | For-profits| Technology transfer

Jeff Young: Technology | Teaching

David Glenn: Teaching | Curriculum | Assessment

What Are the Signs?

“Newspapers had a decade to transform themselves before being overtaken by the digital future. They had a lot of advantages: brand names, highly skilled staff members, money in the bank. They were the best in the world at what they did — and yet, it wasn't enough. The difficulties of change and the temptations to hang on and hope for the best were too strong.”

-Kevin CaryThe Chronicle, April 3, 2009

Contact

Jeffrey J. Selingojeff.selingo@chronicle.com

Twitter: @jselingo