5 mobile trends (2009)
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Claude Florin
Mobile Monday Switzerland #4 : Big Trends in Mobile in 2009
Mobile trends
2. Personalization and user analytics become a priority
3. Cloud computing will impact service infrastructure
4. Device innovation and fragmentation will increase
5. MNOs will consolidate or specialize towards services
1. User experience will drive business
User experience will drive business
MNOs
Semiconductor
Enterprise Infrastructure
Device
MNO infrastructure
Global Venture Capital Mobile Financing
Application as % of TotalConsumer Application as % of Total
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2005
$5.4B
2006
$6.4B
2007
$5.1B
2008
$3.6BDol
lars
Inve
sted
12.1% 17.9% 16.3% 23.0%
2.6% 3.6% 7.9% 13.7%
VC investment in applications will increase
Government applicationEnterprise application
Consumer application
Sources: Rutberg & Co. Wireless Industry Newsletter, Dec ’08; Bain capital venture
Mobile trends
2. Personalization and user analytics become a priority
3. Cloud computing will impact service infrastructure
4. Device innovation and fragmentation will increase
5. MNOs will consolidate or specialize towards services
1. User experience will drive business
Personalization and user analyticsAdvertising revenue trends
0
1000
2000
3000
2010
On-line advertisingAdvertisingTelecoms
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Revenue EBITDA
Telecom Retail DevicesContent Advertising
EMEA Revenues WW Telecom + Revenue
Source : ADL / Exane + STL, Datamonitor, Zenith Opmedia; Advertiser Perceptions (executives survey) 2008.
B$ 6 months budget Change
Online 68%
Mobile 51%Cable TV 27%Magazines 18%Outdoor 17%Broadcast TV 16%Radio 16%
Local newspapers
11%
National newspapers
9%
Advertising spending
Opening to applications
Abstraction of user identity data
Real-time access to user subscriber data bases
Applicationrequests
Access control
Abstraction
Identity broker
HSSMS
Exchange Location
PresenceNetwork
Externalsources
HLR LDAP CRM
RDBMSXDMS
Personalization and user analyticsExposing user data securely
Mobile trends
2. Personalization and user analytics become a priority
3. Cloud computing will impact service infrastructure
4. Device innovation and fragmentation will increase
5. MNOs will consolidate or specialize towards services
1. User experience will drive business
Cloud computing service infrastructure Web 2.0 is a state of mind and a new business models
Why pay?... …when you can get services for free… …that are better
Storage
Directory assistance
Telephony
~$100
$1 per use
~$50 per month
Unlimited free storage for email, contacts & calendar Intuitive user interface
Search by category, fully automated, free text messages
Free PC-to-PC voice & video calls
hard drive
Softwareand collaboration
Users collaborate, develop documents and presentations on the web
~$300
Mobile trends
2. Personalization and user analytics become a priority
3. Cloud computing will impact service infrastructure
4. Device innovation and fragmentation will increase
5. MNOs will consolidate or specialize towards services
1. User experience will drive business
Device software fragmentation
Tools and platforms
for content, UI, services
Handset software
stack, AEE0.1-2$/unit
Content delivery : browse, buy, create, share,
services~5%
User generated content : messages, photos, videos,
preferences
OEM SW revenue Usage service revenue
Embe
dded
SW
Net
wor
k /
IR S
WWar
Mon
etiza
tion
ID
Source : Vision mobile ttp://www.visionmobile.com/rsc/researchreports/mobile-megatrends-2008-(visionmobile).pdf
Mobile trends
2. Personalization and user analytics become a priority
3. Cloud computing will impact service infrastructure
4. Device innovation and fragmentation will increase
5. MNOs will consolidate or specialize towards services
1. User experience will drive business
MNOs will consolidate or specialize
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
Ente
rtainm
ent
IT se
rvice
s3r
d Par
tyCo
nnec
tivity
Adve
rtisin
g
Exte
rnal
partn
ers
Inte
rnal
reso
urce
s
Partnership innovation3rd party enablers innovationIndustry model innovation
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
DTAG FT
Telef
onica
Voda
fone TI BT KPN
Swiss
com
Mobile Fixed
Source : Economist Intelligence unit N=173
Consolidating from 7 to 4 operators/country in EMEA
Source : ADL/Exane, 2008
Consolidating into traffic pipes or specializing in service
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