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4/13/2012
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Demographics and what it means for you Population dynamics in rural Kansas
László J. Kulcsár Kansas State University
K-State Research and Extension Spring Action Conference
April 10, 2012, Salina, KS
On today’s menu
Basic demography and long term
population trends in KS
Aging in place
Immigration issues
A few words on what to do
Demography basics
Three ways how populations can change
◦ Fertility
◦ Mortality
◦ Migration
Three formal research areas
◦ Population size (growth, decline)
◦ Population composition (race, age, sex etc.)
◦ Population distribution (migration, urbanization)
The demographic landscape
“Demography is destiny”
◦ Demographic trends are complex and seldom change overnight
◦ Sorry, no easy fixes!
Kansas trends ◦ Slow population growth
◦ Urban expansion
◦ Some population diversity
◦ Spatially uneven immigration High in certain locations, nonexistent in others
◦ Aging
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The demographic landscape
These trends fit to the general changes occurring in the US (and even globally)
◦ There is really not much special about Kansas
Most of these trends are not new and could have been predicted decades ago
◦ The exception is immigration, which is policy-driven at the federal level and business-driven at the local level States also meddle into immigration, usually making things
much worse
Population of Kansas, 1900-2010
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Population growth (since last census, %)
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
KS
US
Population distribution in Kansas (2003 definitions)
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
rural
micro
metro
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Population distribution in Kansas (2003 definitions)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Rural
Metro
Micro
Percent population change (1900=100%)
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Metro
Micro
Rural
Long term population decline
Two-thirds of KS counties had their population peak in 1930 or before
One-third of KS counties had negative net migration in every decade since 1950
Only nine counties had population growth above the national average between 2000 and 2010
◦ 19 others grew some, the rest declined
Only three rural counties grew more than 1% since 2000 (Stevens, Dickinson, Gray)
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Projected % population change until
2030
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
metro micro rural
18 counties will see more
than 40% decline, two
(Jewel, Ness) will see more
than 50%.
The links to aging
Population decline occurs mostly because of
negative migration trends
Migration is age-selective
◦ Primary ages are 20-35 (and subsequently 0-5)
◦ Migration alone can cause aging in place
This is exacerbated by the effect of the national
age transition (the Baby Boom retirement)
Distribution of the Elderly: 2000 Percentage of Persons 85 Years and Older
0 %- 1.14%
1.15% - 1.81%
1.82% - 2.52%
2.53% - 3.52%
3.53% - 6.64%
North Dakota State Data Center
Median age
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
41
43
45
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Metro
Micro
Rural
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Kansas
Rice
Source: CensusScope
Seward
Rawlins
Population of Smith County
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2030
Kansas County Historical Dataset
Projecting aging [2000]
-200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Age structure, Smith County, 2000
female
male
Disclaimer: county-level
projections are risky and
inaccurate, so see this only as
a trend indication or a
theoretical exercise
Conservative assumptions on
fertility and mortality (keep
the 2000 level)
Migration assumption: the
1990-2000 trend will
continue, no “shock event”
Kansas Population Center
Projecting aging [2030]
-200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Age structure, Smith County, 2030
female
male
Disclaimer: county-level
projections are risky and
inaccurate, so see this only as
a trend indication or a
theoretical exercise
Conservative assumptions on
fertility and mortality (keep
the 2000 level)
Migration assumption: the
1990-2000 trend will
continue, no “shock event”
Kansas Population Center
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The vicious cycle
Population loss
Loss of consumers
Loss of businesses
Loss of revenues
Loss of services
International migration
International migration is connected to
globalization and uneven development patterns
It has three major dynamics:
◦ A response to push and pull factors
◦ Facilitated by social networks
◦ Influenced by policies and institutions
About 13% of the US population is foreign born
◦ This is ~40 million people (of which 17.5 million is
naturalized)
Number of immigrants, 1850-2010 (LPRs, thousands)
25982315
2812
5247
3688
8795
5736
4107
5281035
2515
3322
4493
7338
9095
10299
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1850
s
1860
s
1870
s
1880
s
1890
s
1900
s
1910
s
1920
s
1930
s
1940
s
1950
s
1960
s
1970
s
1980
s
1990
s
2000
s
Yearbook of Immigration Statistics, 2010
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Foreign born in Kansas
Foreign born population grew from 63,000 in 1990 to 165,000 by the late 2000s (2005-09 ACS)
56% of the KS foreign born are from Latin America, 28% from Asia, 9% from Europe
33% of the KS foreign born are citizens (43% at the national level) ◦ Recent Hispanic immigrants are less likely to be
citizens
4 to 5 thousand green cards are given to KS residents each year
FB population in KS is spatially concentrated
Percent foreign-born
3.8
1.4
3.6 2.0
6.2
9.8 10.8
12.2
2.5
7.9
22.5
25.2
28.0
5.0
11.1
20.7
28.4
32.6
6.5
12.9
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
Garden
City
Dodge City Liberal KS US
1980 1990 2000 2010
Immigrant integration
We cannot expect immigration (or
immigrants) to go away
◦ Emphasis should be on integration using policies,
incentives and common sense
Immigrant integration depends on both the
national and local contexts
◦ The national context provides the grand
discourse that shapes opinions and perspectives
◦ The local context provides the conditions that
determine the success of integration
Policy considerations
Immigration is driven by broad social and
economic currents that are mostly outside of
governmental control
Policy mistakes
◦ If the discourse on immigration is contaminated by
partisan political agendas then failure is guaranteed
◦ A policy largely based on law enforcement (border or
workplace) will never be successful because it misses
the underlying reasons why people move
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Illegal immigration
Illegal immigration is driven by the same forces
as legal immigration
◦ The invisible hand of supply and demand
What makes it illegal is the flawed policy regime
◦ Broken guest worker program
◦ Self-perpetuating border enforcement interests
◦ A public discourse contaminated by fear-mongering
which mixes up immigration with terrorism and
national security
So what does this mean for you?
*** BREAKING NEWS ***
These are just
demographic
trends…
What makes them a
problem is insufficient
community capacity!
*** BREAKING NEWS ***
What can be done?
Understand how demography works and what
is its impact on human resources
One size never fits all
◦ Communities are different and even if the challenges
are similar, the solutions may not be so
Only one silver bullet
◦ Build local capacity so that localities could come up
with solutions by themselves
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What can be done?
Pay attention to all factors
influencing population
trends, first of all
migration
Be realistic: time
cannot be turned
back
?
Conclusions
The demographic trends of Kansas are clear and we should not act surprised in 2020
◦ Remember: nothing changes overnight
Local demographic trends (including aging) are increasingly determined by migration patterns
Rational planning should address
◦ How the Baby Boom moves through the lifecourse
◦ The state and local health service needs of old Kansans
◦ The spatially selective growth of foreign born population
◦ How to provide opportunities for people to keep them from moving away
Local capacity is the key for most challenges
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