4/13/2012

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Demographics and what it means for you Population dynamics in rural Kansas

László J. Kulcsár Kansas State University

K-State Research and Extension Spring Action Conference

April 10, 2012, Salina, KS

On today’s menu

Basic demography and long term

population trends in KS

Aging in place

Immigration issues

A few words on what to do

Demography basics

Three ways how populations can change

◦ Fertility

◦ Mortality

◦ Migration

Three formal research areas

◦ Population size (growth, decline)

◦ Population composition (race, age, sex etc.)

◦ Population distribution (migration, urbanization)

The demographic landscape

“Demography is destiny”

◦ Demographic trends are complex and seldom change overnight

◦ Sorry, no easy fixes!

Kansas trends ◦ Slow population growth

◦ Urban expansion

◦ Some population diversity

◦ Spatially uneven immigration High in certain locations, nonexistent in others

◦ Aging

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The demographic landscape

These trends fit to the general changes occurring in the US (and even globally)

◦ There is really not much special about Kansas

Most of these trends are not new and could have been predicted decades ago

◦ The exception is immigration, which is policy-driven at the federal level and business-driven at the local level States also meddle into immigration, usually making things

much worse

Population of Kansas, 1900-2010

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Population growth (since last census, %)

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

KS

US

Population distribution in Kansas (2003 definitions)

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

rural

micro

metro

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Population distribution in Kansas (2003 definitions)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Rural

Metro

Micro

Percent population change (1900=100%)

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Metro

Micro

Rural

Long term population decline

Two-thirds of KS counties had their population peak in 1930 or before

One-third of KS counties had negative net migration in every decade since 1950

Only nine counties had population growth above the national average between 2000 and 2010

◦ 19 others grew some, the rest declined

Only three rural counties grew more than 1% since 2000 (Stevens, Dickinson, Gray)

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Projected % population change until

2030

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

metro micro rural

18 counties will see more

than 40% decline, two

(Jewel, Ness) will see more

than 50%.

The links to aging

Population decline occurs mostly because of

negative migration trends

Migration is age-selective

◦ Primary ages are 20-35 (and subsequently 0-5)

◦ Migration alone can cause aging in place

This is exacerbated by the effect of the national

age transition (the Baby Boom retirement)

Distribution of the Elderly: 2000 Percentage of Persons 85 Years and Older

0 %- 1.14%

1.15% - 1.81%

1.82% - 2.52%

2.53% - 3.52%

3.53% - 6.64%

North Dakota State Data Center

Median age

25

27

29

31

33

35

37

39

41

43

45

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Metro

Micro

Rural

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Kansas

Rice

Source: CensusScope

Seward

Rawlins

Population of Smith County

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2030

Kansas County Historical Dataset

Projecting aging [2000]

-200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Age structure, Smith County, 2000

female

male

Disclaimer: county-level

projections are risky and

inaccurate, so see this only as

a trend indication or a

theoretical exercise

Conservative assumptions on

fertility and mortality (keep

the 2000 level)

Migration assumption: the

1990-2000 trend will

continue, no “shock event”

Kansas Population Center

Projecting aging [2030]

-200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200

0-4

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

Age structure, Smith County, 2030

female

male

Disclaimer: county-level

projections are risky and

inaccurate, so see this only as

a trend indication or a

theoretical exercise

Conservative assumptions on

fertility and mortality (keep

the 2000 level)

Migration assumption: the

1990-2000 trend will

continue, no “shock event”

Kansas Population Center

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The vicious cycle

Population loss

Loss of consumers

Loss of businesses

Loss of revenues

Loss of services

International migration

International migration is connected to

globalization and uneven development patterns

It has three major dynamics:

◦ A response to push and pull factors

◦ Facilitated by social networks

◦ Influenced by policies and institutions

About 13% of the US population is foreign born

◦ This is ~40 million people (of which 17.5 million is

naturalized)

Number of immigrants, 1850-2010 (LPRs, thousands)

25982315

2812

5247

3688

8795

5736

4107

5281035

2515

3322

4493

7338

9095

10299

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1850

s

1860

s

1870

s

1880

s

1890

s

1900

s

1910

s

1920

s

1930

s

1940

s

1950

s

1960

s

1970

s

1980

s

1990

s

2000

s

Yearbook of Immigration Statistics, 2010

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Foreign born in Kansas

Foreign born population grew from 63,000 in 1990 to 165,000 by the late 2000s (2005-09 ACS)

56% of the KS foreign born are from Latin America, 28% from Asia, 9% from Europe

33% of the KS foreign born are citizens (43% at the national level) ◦ Recent Hispanic immigrants are less likely to be

citizens

4 to 5 thousand green cards are given to KS residents each year

FB population in KS is spatially concentrated

Percent foreign-born

3.8

1.4

3.6 2.0

6.2

9.8 10.8

12.2

2.5

7.9

22.5

25.2

28.0

5.0

11.1

20.7

28.4

32.6

6.5

12.9

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

Garden

City

Dodge City Liberal KS US

1980 1990 2000 2010

Immigrant integration

We cannot expect immigration (or

immigrants) to go away

◦ Emphasis should be on integration using policies,

incentives and common sense

Immigrant integration depends on both the

national and local contexts

◦ The national context provides the grand

discourse that shapes opinions and perspectives

◦ The local context provides the conditions that

determine the success of integration

Policy considerations

Immigration is driven by broad social and

economic currents that are mostly outside of

governmental control

Policy mistakes

◦ If the discourse on immigration is contaminated by

partisan political agendas then failure is guaranteed

◦ A policy largely based on law enforcement (border or

workplace) will never be successful because it misses

the underlying reasons why people move

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Illegal immigration

Illegal immigration is driven by the same forces

as legal immigration

◦ The invisible hand of supply and demand

What makes it illegal is the flawed policy regime

◦ Broken guest worker program

◦ Self-perpetuating border enforcement interests

◦ A public discourse contaminated by fear-mongering

which mixes up immigration with terrorism and

national security

So what does this mean for you?

*** BREAKING NEWS ***

These are just

demographic

trends…

What makes them a

problem is insufficient

community capacity!

*** BREAKING NEWS ***

What can be done?

Understand how demography works and what

is its impact on human resources

One size never fits all

◦ Communities are different and even if the challenges

are similar, the solutions may not be so

Only one silver bullet

◦ Build local capacity so that localities could come up

with solutions by themselves

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What can be done?

Pay attention to all factors

influencing population

trends, first of all

migration

Be realistic: time

cannot be turned

back

?

Conclusions

The demographic trends of Kansas are clear and we should not act surprised in 2020

◦ Remember: nothing changes overnight

Local demographic trends (including aging) are increasingly determined by migration patterns

Rational planning should address

◦ How the Baby Boom moves through the lifecourse

◦ The state and local health service needs of old Kansans

◦ The spatially selective growth of foreign born population

◦ How to provide opportunities for people to keep them from moving away

Local capacity is the key for most challenges