2012 02 the state of the severn report dr. rhoda ballinger, cardiff university

The State of the Severn Estuary Reporting

Rhoda Ballinger & Rachel Gregory

Format of talk

• Need for Severn Estuary reporting

• State of the Severn Report

• Current report card series

• Way forward

NEED FOR SEVERN ESTUARY REPORTING

Context

• Common practice elsewhere

– Collating and interpreting baseline data

– Identifying trends

– Informing future decisions

– Raising awareness & understanding in local communities

Context contd.

• Europe & ICZM

– Projects – sustainability

– Climate change implications

• Need for Severn Estuary reporting

– Severn Estuary Strategy

– SEP Business Plan priority

– INTERREG IV IMCORE / DELTANET

STATE OF THE SEVERN ESTUARY REPORT

2011 report aims• To provide:

– An overview of the ‘State of the Severn Estuary’

– A basis for future reporting

• To inform a wide-ranging audience, including Estuary users and local people about the Estuary

• Based on best available & most up-to-date data (2010)

Report contents & approach

Related website development

• Digital publication– Virtual book– http://viewer.zmags.com/pu

blication/ad5b93bd#/ad5b93bd/1

• Estuary maps– http://www.severnestuary.ne

t/sep/estuary/maps.html

Updating estuary web pages

Feedback on report

• IMCORE Autumn 2011 workshop

• Supported state of the Severn reporting• simple Severn specific graphics & information

• importance of explaining ‘Why does it matter’ under each theme

• Recommendations included development of:

– Existing & additional themes

– Reporting process:• Indicator identification

• Engagement with local user groups

REPORT CARD SERIES

Aims

• To provide a concise & user-friendly snapshot of the State of the Estuary

• To update key trends from the State of the Estuary Report

• To expand on topics covered in:– 2011 State of the Estuary Report

– IMCORE Climate Change Report card series

• DELTANET project– sharing best practice

– raising estuary awareness

Support for card development

• Environment Agency

– Rhys Morgan

• CUROP Cardiff University Student Placement

– Rachel Gregory

• DELTANET project

Key themes for 2011 cards

• Population & development

• Port traffic

• Maintenance dredging

• Sea defence & shoreline management

• Bathing water quality

• The water environment– River flows

– Weather, sea conditions & climate change

Area covered & reporting period

• Area covered by report card series– SAME area as for State of Severn

Estuary Report– Severn Estuary Partnership area– Severn Estuary & Inner Bristol

Channel

• Reporting period– Wherever possible 2011 data used– Comparison with:

• 2010 from State of Severn Estuary Report

• 2000 for selected topics

REPORT CARD EXAMPLETHE WATER ENVIRONMENT

The Water EnvironmentConsists of a total of 4 report cards covering a variety of topics

Freshwater Flows

0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00

Severn

Wye

Usk

Taff

Rhymn…

Parrett

Ely

Ebbw

Mean Flow POR (m3/s) Mean Flow 2011 (m3/s)

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

Rai

nfa

ll (m

m)

Year

Rainfall measured at Bute Park, Cardiff

Uncertainty Natural VariabilityModelling Uncertainty Future Emissions

The North Atlantic Oscillation

The North Atlantic Oscillation has a strong influence over the winter weather in the Northern Hemisphere. If it is in the positive phase, the UK tends to have warm, wet winters, and if it is in the negative phase, winters tend to be colder and drier.

Sea Level & Wave Heights Sea level has increased at approximately 2.4mm/yr over the past 15 years

However, maximum sea levels appear to be decreasing, while minimum sea levels appear to be increasing

Wave height has increased over the past 25 years, which is likely to be linked to the positive state of the NAO. This drives stronger westerly winds leading to bigger waves.

Storminess, Wind Speed & Wind Direction There are a number of conflicting predictions as to the effects of climate change on storminess.

Wind direction can effect the direction of wave attack on the shoreline, and therefore significantly increase erosion. This was illustrated at Penarth in 1997/98.

Wind speed has decreased by approximately 12.5 % over the past 25 years.

This may be related to the NAO, although climate change and urban development have also been suggested as possible causes.

WAY FORWARD

• Draft selection for your feedback– style & format– types of information– Topics

• Launch of 2011 cards• Additional cards to be

developed – consider:– Topics /indicators– Data availability – Links to other data

collation/collection– DELTANET priorities– Cost/time considerations

Further considerations• Website

– Provision of even simpler ‘headlines’ on topics– Inclusion of sections on how & where information can be used –

• Engagement – signposting & targeting key stakeholders

• Senior Management/ Elected Councillors / Local user groups

• Resourcing

THANK YOUDIOLCH YN FAWR BallingerRC@Cardiff.ac.uk

WEBSITE: http://www.severnestuary.net/sep/publications/soser.html