Climate change futures on the Severn Estuary:

the IMCORE project Rhoda Ballinger, Cardiff University

IMCORE Project“Innovative Management of Europe’s

Changing Coastal Resource”

Aims: • To promote a transnational, innovative

& sustainable approach to reducing the impacts of climate change on coastal resources

• To develop adaptation strategies for coastal sites across North West Europe

• To demonstrate the effectiveness of various approaches to climate change adaptation

www.imcore.euUKCIP’s Adaptation Wizard

The Severn Estuary Case StudyMain aim: • To enhance the capacity for climate change

adaptation in the Severn Estuary

The Severn Estuary Case StudySubsidiary aims:• To enhance the science base on climate change

for planning of the Severn Estuary• To explore mechanisms for enhancing science-

policy integration • To increase awareness of climate change impacts

and adaptation options • To create IMCORE guidelines for adaptation for

the Severn Estuary

Enhancing the science base

Enhancing the science base • Severn Estuary Climate

Change Research Advisory Group (SECCRAG)

• Development of citation database & associated research

• Support & contribution to the State of the Estuary Report

Trends – sea level

Chepstow

Medium Emissions Scenariowww.ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk

Whole estuary rise 30 – 40 cm by 2080

Trends - storminess • Some evidence of more

storms over last 2 decades BUT not above levels of the 1920s

• Little evidence of increase in intensity or frequency of storms over the UK in the future

• Risk to estuary is from higher sea levels plus an intense storm event

Very small increase in storm surge height (0.8mm/yr until 2050)

Medium Emissions Scenariowww.ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk

Trends – key message!

There is much uncertainty in predicting future climate

• Global Climate Computer Models are not 100% accurate

• Our knowledge of the climate is incomplete

• Climate varies naturally• Future greenhouse gas emissions

are difficult to predict

Exploring mechanisms for enhancing science-policy integration

Exploring mechanisms for enhancing science-policy integration

• evaluation of climate change science within planning & policy documents

• survey with planning community

Climate Change Policies & Measures

Several developed

Climate Change

Strategies

Majority have

mitigation & adaptation measures

Different climate change science

content in strategies

Increasing awareness of climate change & adaptation options

Increasing awareness of climate change & adaptation options

• RTPI conference (June 2010)

• Education pack & schools’ workshopsBeacons YoCCo project

• Easy-to-read summaries of Severn climate change science– Report cards– Website

• Report cards:– General climate change

implications– Sea level, storminess, wave

climate & storm surges– Rainfall events & projections

Developing guidelines for adaptation

Developing guidelines for adaptation • Informed by:

– planning desk study & survey with planning community

– Scenario workshops– Delphi survey

• Informing an adaptable and sustainable planning response for the Severn Estuary in the context of coastal climate change over the next 30 years

– Review of existing guidelines on climate change, SMP and flood risk for local authorities

Summary: Emerging Policy TrendsGoing Up

• Strong emergence of explicit climate change policies within emerging plans• focus remains on

mitigation• High numbers of flood

risk policies in both adopted and emerging plans

Going Down• ‘Dropping off’ of coastal–

related policies within emerging plans

• Few references to Shoreline Management Plans in existing plans -none in emerging plans

• Few refs to Severn Estuary Strategy in existing plans & none in emerging plans

Planners’ Critical Issues in addressing climate change adaptation

12

6

3

2

1

1

1

1

Development & Flood Risk

Nature Conservation

Renewable Energy Generation

Building Design

Cross-Border Working

Sustainability of Coastal Towns

Transport

Archaeology

Development & Flood Risk

“…Number one is flooding…huge issue…”; “…flooding is our big concern…”;

“…we have a small hamlet…really in danger…”;

“…so much of our urban development is in very vulnerable locations...”

Forthcoming events • Severn Estuary Futures

Scenario Workshops– Cardiff 15 October– Bristol 18 October

• YoCCo Beacons workshop with local schools– 22 October (Barry)

• Severn Estuary Climate Change Research Advisory Group (SECCRAG)

Thank youSEP IMCORE website:http://www.severnestuary.net/sep/partnership/imcore.html

Beacons Young People’s Climate Change Forum- The YoCCo Forum project:http://www.severnestuary.net/yocco/index.html

Contact: Dr Rhoda Ballinger BallingerRC@Cf.ac.uk