2010 work plan steering committee january 29, 2010

2010 Work Plan

Steering CommitteeJanuary 29, 2010

January 29, 2010 2

Major Tasks

• Benchmark Models• Review Adequacy Methodology• Assess Power Supply Adequacy• Share Information • Key Issues• Key Decisions

January 29, 2010 3

Benchmark Models• Verify Data

– Resources (thermal, hydro, renewable, conservation, non-firm)

– Loads (annual, monthly, hourly)– Out-of-region Firm Contracts

• Validate Models

January 29, 2010 4

Review Adequacy Methodology(Proposed Contract with PSRI)

• Survey use of probabilistic adequacy assessments in the US and in other countries

• Develop options for the NW power supply (including status quo - LOLP as currently defined)

• If appropriate, revise adequacy methodology

• Translate probabilistic adequacy measure(s) into deterministic metrics with associated minimum thresholds

January 29, 2010 5

Assess Power Supply Adequacy(Targeted to be Completed by June)

1. Update Resource and Load Data

2. Calculate Adequacy Measures

• Annual Load/Resource Balance

• January and July Sustained-Peak Reserve Margin

3. Check Measures against Thresholds 3 and 5 Years Out (2013 and 2015)

4. Take Appropriate Actions depending on Results

January 29, 2010 6

Share Information• Publish annual adequacy assessment• Compare results with other regional reports• Work with regional utilities to incorporate

adequacy assessments into their resource planning efforts

• Work with WECC and NERC to ensure that NW adequacy is properly treated in West-wide or nation-wide assessments

January 29, 2010 7

Key Issues• Develop synthetic temperature-correlated wind data

• Define annual-energy and hourly-capacity wind factors

• Identify reserve requirements (including within-hour) and how to treat them for adequacy assessments

• Refine methods for assessing hydro sustained-peak capability

• Reassess the definition for the sustained peak period

• Explore how adequacy measures can be incorporated into long-term utility resource planning methods

January 29, 2010 8

Key Decisions

• Status of the Adequacy Forum

• Level of utility guidance from the Forum

• Definition and use of an “economic” adequacy measure