2010 work plan steering committee january 29, 2010
TRANSCRIPT
2010 Work Plan
Steering CommitteeJanuary 29, 2010
January 29, 2010 2
Major Tasks
• Benchmark Models• Review Adequacy Methodology• Assess Power Supply Adequacy• Share Information • Key Issues• Key Decisions
January 29, 2010 3
Benchmark Models• Verify Data
– Resources (thermal, hydro, renewable, conservation, non-firm)
– Loads (annual, monthly, hourly)– Out-of-region Firm Contracts
• Validate Models
January 29, 2010 4
Review Adequacy Methodology(Proposed Contract with PSRI)
• Survey use of probabilistic adequacy assessments in the US and in other countries
• Develop options for the NW power supply (including status quo - LOLP as currently defined)
• If appropriate, revise adequacy methodology
• Translate probabilistic adequacy measure(s) into deterministic metrics with associated minimum thresholds
January 29, 2010 5
Assess Power Supply Adequacy(Targeted to be Completed by June)
1. Update Resource and Load Data
2. Calculate Adequacy Measures
• Annual Load/Resource Balance
• January and July Sustained-Peak Reserve Margin
3. Check Measures against Thresholds 3 and 5 Years Out (2013 and 2015)
4. Take Appropriate Actions depending on Results
January 29, 2010 6
Share Information• Publish annual adequacy assessment• Compare results with other regional reports• Work with regional utilities to incorporate
adequacy assessments into their resource planning efforts
• Work with WECC and NERC to ensure that NW adequacy is properly treated in West-wide or nation-wide assessments
January 29, 2010 7
Key Issues• Develop synthetic temperature-correlated wind data
• Define annual-energy and hourly-capacity wind factors
• Identify reserve requirements (including within-hour) and how to treat them for adequacy assessments
• Refine methods for assessing hydro sustained-peak capability
• Reassess the definition for the sustained peak period
• Explore how adequacy measures can be incorporated into long-term utility resource planning methods
January 29, 2010 8
Key Decisions
• Status of the Adequacy Forum
• Level of utility guidance from the Forum
• Definition and use of an “economic” adequacy measure