2009 annual report of the western water assessment · 2009 calendar year (january 1 2009 to...

2009AnnualReportoftheWesternWaterAssessment

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TableofContents

WesternWaterAssessment ....................................................................................................3

MajorHighlightsfrom2009.....................................................................................................3“DealingwithDrought:AdaptingtoaChangingClimate”WorkshopSeries ............................. 3http://treeflow.info:AResourceforPaleohydrologicData....................................................... 4EcosystemManagement:NetworkExpansion...........................................................................5

ProjectSummaries ..................................................................................................................5DecisionSupportfortheColoradoRiverBasinandHeadwaters...............................................5EcologicalVulnerabilities,Impacts,andAdaptation ................................................................ 14EmergingInitiativesandAdaptationStrategiestoInformClimateServices.............................. 3CoreActivities ..........................................................................................................................26

LookingAhead ......................................................................................................................31

AppendixI.PersonnelandStakeholders ....................................................................................................32

AppendixII.Presentations .........................................................................................................................37

AppendixIII.Awards...................................................................................................................................46

AppendixIV.Publications...........................................................................................................................46

AppendixV.MediaCoverage .................................................................................................................... 48

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WesternWaterAssessment

Usingmultidisciplinaryteamsofexpertsinclimate,water,law,andeconomics,theWesternWaterAssessmentworkswithdecision‐makersacrosstheIntermountainWesttoproduceusefulinformationaboutnaturalclimatevariabilityandchange.IntheWest,manyoftheimpactsofclimatechangewillbedeliveredthroughchangesinthehydrologiccyclethathaveandwillcontinuetoaffectourwaterresources.Asaconsequence,sinceitsinception10yearsago,theWWAhasfocusedonbuildingrelationshipsandnetworkswithwater‐resourcedecision‐makers,andhassubsequentlyusedtheseinteractionstodeveloppracticalresearchprogramsandusefulinformationalproducts.ThesuccessesoftheWWAmodelofstakeholder‐drivenresearchprogramsaredemonstratedbytheprojectsummarieshighlightedinthisreport.

The mission of the WWA is to identify and characterize regional vulnerabilities to andimpacts of climate variability and change, and to develop information, products andprocessestoassistdecisionmakersthroughouttheIntermountainWest.

In2008,WWArevieweditsresearchscopethroughinteractionswithstakeholders,ouradvisoryboard,andfederalpartners.Asaresult,WWAformedthreefocusedresearchthemes.Beginningin2009,theWWArefocuseditsresearchanddecision‐supportproducts;allWWAprojectsfallwithinthreemajorthematiccategories:(1)DecisionSupportfortheColoradoRiverBasinandHeadwaters;(2)EcologicalVulnerabilities,Impacts,andAdaptation,and(3)EmergingInitiativesandAdaptationStrategiestoInformClimateServices.Althoughindividualprojectsarealignedwithinspecificthemesformanagementpurposes,thereissignificantoverlapbetweenandamongprojectswithinthesethemes.Thecoremanagementteamisresponsibleforidentifyingandcoordinatingthesecross‐cuttingprojects.

ActivitieswithineachthemefortheJuly12009–June302010yearwereselectedthroughaninternalcompetitionandareoutlinedintheStatementofWorksubmittedlastyeartoNOAA.ThisAnnualReportcoversallworkfundedbyWWAandactivitiesofourcoreresearchteamduringthe2009calendaryear(January12009toDecember312009).Assuch,manyoftheproposedactivitiesherearenotyetcompleteasseveralmonthsremaininthefundingperiod.

MajorHighlightsfrom2009

Asinthepast,2009wasanexcitingyearfortheWWAresearchteam.Ourprojectsandoutreacheffortswerewellreceivedbyourstakeholdercommunity,andseveralmajorendeavorsemergedasparticularlyimportantefforts.

“DealingwithDrought:AdaptingtoaChangingClimate”WorkshopSeries

InconjunctionwiththeColoradoWaterConservationBoard(CWCB),WWApresentedthe“DealingwithDrought–AdaptingtoaChangingClimate”workshopseriesduringOctober2009inthreelocationsaroundColorado:CastleRock,GlenwoodSprings,andDurango.TheseworkshopsbuiltonthemesandinformationfromboththeWWA‐CWCBClimateChangeinColoradoreport(2008)andtheOctober2008ColoradoGovernor’sConferenceonManagingDroughtandClimateRisk.TheWWA,CWCB,andthe

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NationalIntegratedDroughtInformationSystem(NIDIS),alongwiththeColoradoStateUniversityColoradoClimateCenter(CCC)andtheMountainStudiesInstitutesponsoredthisseriesofworkshops.The80participantsrepresenteddiversesectorsandinterestsaffectedbydroughtandclimate,includingwaterresourcemanagement,agriculture,land‐useplanning,forest&rangemanagement,watershedprotection,environmentalorganizations,andtourism&recreation.Collectively,theparticipants’decision‐makingaffectsnaturalresourcesineveryriverbasininColorado.

Theprimaryobjectivesoftheseworkshopsweretoimprovetheclimateliteracyoftheparticipants,provideinputintotheongoingupdateofthestateDroughtplan,documentparticipants’understandingofclimatechangeinColorado,andaddressconcernsandquestionsamongthisgroupofstakeholdersaboutclimatechange.Theworkshopobjectiveswereachievedthroughpre‐andpost‐workshopevaluations,instructionalpresentations,breakoutdiscussions,andthedistributionofclimateanddroughtinformationinprintedform.

ThedetailsofourobservationsandresultsoftheevaluationsarediscussedfurtherinawhitepaperavailableontheWWAwebsite(workshopreport).Thefullsetofpresentationsandmaterialsprovidedattheworkshopsareavailableathttp://wwa.colorado.edu/climate_change/drought09.html.

TreeFlow(http://treeflow.info):AResourceforPaleohydrologicData

Paleohydrologicdataandinformationfromtreeringsareincreasinglyrecognizedasavaluabletoolfordroughtplanningandwaterresourcesmanagement.Therecentsevereandprolongeddroughtandagrowingawarenessoftheregionalimpactsofglobalclimatechange,coupledwithanincreasedindemandforwaterthatfarexceedsdemandsduringthe1950sdrought,havemadewatermanagersinthewesternU.S.realizetheneedfornewtoolsfordroughtplanningandwatermanagement.Thedevelopmentofhigh‐qualitytree‐ringbasedreconstructionsofstreamflowforagrowingnumberofwesternrivershascoincidedwiththisrealization.Informationfromthepaleorecordcombinedwithfutureprojectionsmayyieldthemostlikelyrangeoffuturescenariosforplanningpurposes.Tomeetthegrowingdemandbyresourcemanagersforaclearinghouseofsuchinformation,WWA,incollaborationwithresearchersfromtheClimateAssessmentforthe

Southwest(CLIMAS),developedawebportaltoaccesspaleorecords.

Thenew,expandedTreeFlowwebresource(http://treeflow.info)wentliveforreviewinlateJune2009andwaspubliclyannouncedtostakeholdersinSeptember2009.Thetop‐levelsectionsofthesiteinclude:(1)basin‐basedaccesstopaleohydrologydataforover60gagesacrossthewesternUS;(2)backgroundinformationontree‐ringdataandhowthestreamflowreconstructionsaredeveloped;(3)descriptionsofseveralcurrent

applicationsofthedatatowatermanagement;(4)agendas,presentations,andreportsfrom13tree‐ringworkshopsfrom2006to2009;and(5)amulti‐pagefeature,ColoradoRiverStreamflow:APaleoPerspective.Thesitealsoincludesafullytext‐annotatedPowerPointpresentationdescribingthegenerationofpaleohydrologydataandtheiruseinwaterresourcemanagement(http://treeflow.info/docs/treeflow_reconstructions&applications_annotated.ppt).

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EcosystemManagement:NetworkExpansion

In2009,WWAinitiatedtheEcologicalVulnerabilities,Impacts,andAdaptationresearchtheme.Throughthreenewresearchprojectswithinthattheme,WWAgainedvisibilityandcredibilitywithecosystemstakeholders,expandingWWA’soverallstakeholdernetwork,andlaidthegroundworkforfuturecollaborativeresearchonclimate‐ecosystemvulnerabilities.

The“Forests,Climate,andChange”projectentailedsignificantoutreachtostakeholdersandscientiststhatallowedWWAtoassessitsappropriateroleinaidingdecision‐makersfacingtheclimate‐drivenmountainpinebeetle(MPB)epidemicinColoradoandsouthernWyoming.Projectaccomplishmentsin2009includedhostingascience‐stakeholdermeetingtofacilitateconnections,conveythestateofthescienceonMPBimpacts,andidentifyopportunitiesforco‐producingdecision‐supportinformation.KeyecosystemstakeholdersintheregionthatparticipatedinthemeetingincludedtheU.S.ForestService,BureauofLandManagement,BoulderCountyParksandOpenSpace,OurFutureSummit,andtheofficeofU.S.Sen.MarkUdall.

TwootherWWAprojectsengageddirectlywithfederalecosystemmanagementagenciestoaddressclimatevulnerabilitiesspecifictotheirresources.Fortheproject,“EffectsofMountainPineBeetleonWaterQualityinColorado”,WWAworkedwiththeNationalParkServicetoassesswaterqualityat200siteswithinandaroundRockyMountainNationalPark.Theseeffortsfocusedondetectingchangesinnutrientloadsandevidenceofpesticideuseinmountainstreams.For“ClimateChangeImpactsonPublicLandsintheUpperColoradoRiverBasin”,WWAworkedincollaborationwiththeBureauofLandManagementtoexamineclimatevulnerabilityandresilienceinpinyon‐juniperwoodlandsofsouthwesternColorado.Theresultsindicatethatsoiltypemaybeasignificantdriveroflandscaperesponsetodroughtinthatparticularregion.

ProjectSummaries

TheprojectsummariesinTable1,2&3provideabriefoverviewofspecificresearchprojectsfundedin2009.

DecisionSupportfortheColoradoRiverBasinandHeadwaters

Table1.

ProjectTitle: StochasticStreamflowSimulationatInterannualandInterdecadalTimeScalesandImplicationstoWaterResourcesManagementintheColoradoRiverBasin

PrimaryInvestigator(s): E.Zagona,R.Balaji

Contributors: K.Nowak,C.Bracken,C.Jerla,R.Callejo,J.Prairie

CoreFunding: WWA,USBR,CADSWESFUNDING2009:JAN–DEC

Summary: TheUSBureauofReclamationwishestobetterunderstandtheclimatedriverstostreamflowvariabilityasatoolforbetterwatermanagement.Thereisincreasingevidencethattheinterannual(year‐to‐year)variationsinthewesternUShydro‐climatearedrivenbylarge‐scaleclimatefeaturessuchasENSO,PDO,AMO,etc.andthatthecurrentrecorddryspellcouldbearesultofcoolerthannormaltropicalEasternPacificandwarmerthannormaltropicalWesternPacific(aLaNinapattern)andIndianOceans.RecentstudiessuggestthattheannualcycleinprecipitationisshiftingearlierinthewesternUS,perhapscausedbyglobalclimatechange.Thereisthepotentialforsubstantialreductioninstreamflowincomingdecadesduetoclimatechange,whichwillhaveasignificantimpactonthewaterresourcesinthebasinandalsoonthesocioeconomichealthofthewesternUS.Tomanagethewaterresourcesefficiently,realisticscenariosofstreamflowsatshort(interannual)andlong(interdecadal)timescalesarecrucial.Thisresearchwillimprovetechniquesforbothseasonalforecastingandlong‐term

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projectionsaswellasinvestigateadaptationstrategiesforreservoirmanagement.

ProposedWork: Theprojectwillaccomplishtheseviathefollowingtasks:

Developmethodsforprojectingstreamflowsatinterdecadaltimescalesbasedon(i)historicalrecord,(ii)paleodataand(iii)climatechangeprojectionsusingfrequencyanalysisandglobalclimatevariables.

ApplytheseprojectionstoevaluatetherobustnessofcurrentoperatingpoliciesasexpressedintheCRSSbasinwaterplanningmodel,includingthenewshortagepoliciesrecentlyagreedto,withrespecttohydrologicvariabilityreflectedinhistoricflows,thepaleorecord,andclimatechangeprojections.Explorewhatpolicyoptionsareavailabletomitigateimpactsofpotentialadverseflowscenarioswithintheinterimguidelinesthrough2026andwithnewpolicyalternativesthereafter.

Developasetofpredictorsforspringflowvolume/shapeinUpperBasinbyidentifyingrelationshipsbetweenseasonalstreamflowsandlarge‐scaleclimatevariables(globalseasurfacetemperatures,sealevelpressures,windsfeatures,etc.)usingnonparametricmulti‐modelregressiontechniques,previouslysuccessfullyappliedinotherbasins.

Developaprobabilisticmidtermoperationsmodelthatincorporatescurrentoperatingpolicies.ThiswillbedoneincollaborationwiththeReclamationColoradoRiverTechnicalModelingTeamandriversystemoperations.ThismodelwilleventuallybeusedaspartofReclamation’sbusinessprocessesforseasonalforecastswithstakeholders.

Themidtermoperationsmodelwillbeusedtodetermineskillsinthesystemoperatingvariablesandpotentialalternative(adaptive)policieswillbeidentifiedthatcanimprovesystemefficiency.Theproposedpolicieswillbetestedwiththehistorichydrology.

Progress/Results: InterannualScale

Theuseofnaturalflowforecastsintheprobabilisticmidtermmodelisalong‐termgoalfortheinterannualcomponentofthisproject.ThesevalueswilleventuallybeobtainedfromtheRiverForecastCenter.InanefforttolaysomegroundworkinthisareaC.BrackenperformedacomprehensiveanalysisofReclamationsandtheRFC’snaturalflows.ThisanalysisledtoameetingwiththeRFCafterwhichwehaveamuchbetterunderstandingofmagnitudeofsuchaneffortandwhatmustbedoneinthenearfuturetomoveforwardwiththePMM.

BrackenspenttimebecomingfamiliarwithusingRiverWareandcurrentRiverWaremodels(particularlythe24MonthStudy).Theseskillswereusedtowritethefirstsetofoperationalrules(andaccompanyingdocumentation)inthePMMfortheFontenelleReservoir.TheserulesweredevelopedincollaborationwithReclamationoperatorK.Grantz.Asimilarmethodologywillbeappliedtotheremaining24MonthStudyreservoirs.WorkiscurrentlyunderwayontheFlamingGorgeReservoir.

Inaddition,BrackenreversedtheruleorderintheExpanded24MonthStudymodel.Theoriginalruleordering(1,2,3,…)hadpersistedforlegacyreasons.Theupdatedordering(…,3,2,1)willfacilitatethedevelopmentofnewrulesetsinthePMM.

InterdecadalScale

WehavedevelopedamethodthatdirectlysimulatesdailydataatmultiplelocationsfromasingleannualflowvalueviaK‐NNresamplingofdailyflowproportionvectors.Theprocedureissimple,datadrivenandcapturesobservedstatisticsquitewell.Furthermore,thegenerateddailydataarecontinuousanddisplaylagcorrelationstructureconsistentwiththatoftheobserveddata.Inaddition,themethodiscompatiblewithanystreamflowgenerationtechnique(e.g.AR‐1,K‐NN,ISM,etc.)andisnotlimitedtoaspecifictimescale(resultswereverygoodformonthlyandseasonaldisaggregationinadditiontodaily).Presently,wehaveresubmittedthemanuscriptentitled“ANon‐parametricStochasticApproachforMultisiteDisaggregationofAnnualtoDailyStreamflow”toWaterResourcesResearchafterrespondingtoreviewercomments.

Intherealmofstochasticsimulation,wehavecontinuedworkingwiththewaveletframeworkofKwonetal.(2007)withapplicationtotheentireupperColoradoRiverBasinbydisaggregatingthesimulatedflowsusingtheaforementioneddisaggregationmethod.Wefindthatthisapproachcancapturethespectralpropertiesofdataatthemultiplesitesalongwiththedistributionalproperties(suchasmean,variance,ProbabilityDensityFunctionsetc.).Consequently,thedroughtandsurplusstatisticsareverywellcaptured.

Furthermore,wehaveusedsimilarwaveletmethodstoanalyzethedominantvariancepeaksfrompaleo‐reconstructedstreamflowdatainordertobetterunderstandlonger‐termvariability.Theseresultsshowthatthestrengthofpersistentmodesofvariabilitycanoscillatewithtime.Oneexampleisdecadal‐scalevariability,whichhasbeenquitestronginrecentyearsbutwassubduedintheearly1900’s.Assuch,wehavefurthermodifiedthemethodofKwonetal.(2007)tocapturethenonstationarityofvariancestrengthinthesimulatedtraces.

Asacomplimenttothewavelet‐basedanalysisandsimulation,wehavealsoconductedaPrincipalComponentAnalysis(PCA)ofthenaturalflowrecordforall29locationsintheColoradoRiverBasin.Thiswillaidinidentifyinglarge‐scaledriversofvariancethroughouttheBasin.Theleading2principalcomponents(PCs)explainnearly85%ofthetotalvariance.WehaveshownthatalllocationsarerelatedtoPC1similarly,whilePC2isdividedroughlyintotheupperandlowerbasins.Assuch,wehypothesizethatPC1islikelytiedtocontinentscalecirculation,whichaffectstheentirebasin,whilePC2maybelinkedtoaphenomenasuchasENSO,wherethe

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impactismoreregionalandisdependantontheclimaticmode.

Presentations: OnNovember19,2009,KenNowakattendedtheColoradoRiverForecastingService'sFallTechnicalMeetingatNOAA'sSaltLakeCityriverforecastcenterandgaveapresentationentitled,"WaterSupplyRiskontheColoradoRiver:CanManagementMitigate?"

OnOctober5,2009,KenNowakgaveapresentation,entitled"ResearchUpdate,"attheColoradoRiverHydrologyWorkGroupmeetingheldatCADSWESinBoulder,CO.

OnDecember2,2009,CameronBrackengaveapresentationattheSaltLakeCityRiverForecastCenterentitled“AMulti‐SiteSeasonalEnsembleStreamflowForecastingTechnique.”

OnOctober5,2009,CameronBrackengaveapresentationtotheColoradoRiverHydrologyWorkingGroupmeetingatCADSWESinBoulder,CO

Publications: Bracken,C.,B.Rajagopalan,andJ.Prairie,AMulti‐SiteSeasonalEnsembleStreamflowForecastingTechnique,WaterResour.Res.,doi:10.1029/2009WR007965,inpress.(Accepted2November2009)

Partners/Stakeholders USBR

ProjectTitle: HistoricalandPotentialFutureChangesinTemporalPrecipitationVariabilityintheColoradoRiverBasin

PrimaryInvestigator(s): G.Guentchev

Contributors: J.Eischeid,J.Barsugli,D.Raff,L.Brekke

CoreFunding: UCAR,CLIVAR,CPAPP,USBR,SNWA,WWAFUNDING2009:JAN–DEC

Summary: ThisprojectisfocusedonassessingthehistoricalcharacteristicsandthepotentialfuturechangesinprecipitationvariabilitythroughouttheColoradoRiverBasin.Threegriddeddatasetsderivedfromprecipitationobservationsareusedinthisanalysis:theMaureretal.(2002)dataset,theHamletandLettenmaier(2005)dataset,andthePRISMdataset(Dalyetal.1994,1997).Inaddition,theprojectionsofasetofabout30CMIP3GCMrunsareutilizedinthisproject.AsaninitialstepthehomogeneityoftheobservedgriddeddatasetswasevaluatedusingthemethodologyproposedbyWijngaardetal.(2003).Next,asetofvariabilitymeasureswaschosentorepresentthehistorical(1951‐1999)andprojectedfuturetemporalprecipitationvariability.Thesemeasureswereutilizedtoassessthedifferencesbetweenthemodelsimulatedandtheobservedprecipitationvariabilityforthehistoricalperiod.Thesedifferencesindicatehowskillfullythemodelsrepresenttheobservedprecipitationvariability.

ProposedWork: ThefinalstageofthisprojectistoevaluatethepotentialfutureprecipitationvariabilitychangesintheColoradoRiverBasinbasedontheA2,B1,andA1BprojectionsfromthesamesetofGCMruns.

Progress/Results: ThestatisticalsignificanceoftheModelminusObservedprecipitationvariabilitymeasures(assessedusinga“moving”blockbootstrappingapproach;Wilks1997)forthehistorical1951‐1999periodwascompletedandtheresultswerepresentedatapostersessionattheAGUFallmeetinginSanFranciscoandalsoattheColoradoRiverHydrologyGroupmeetingonOctober5th,2009atCADSWESBoulderCO.

Inaddition,themajorityoftheworkregardingthestatisticalsignificanceoftheFutureModelminusHistoricalModelprecipitationvariabilitydifferenceswascompletedduringthese6months.Threeperiodsofinterestareusedforthefuturechanges:2001‐2049,2026‐2074and2051‐2099.TwosetsofdownscaledGCMdatafor30projections(downscaledbyBrekkeetal.2007,andbyJonEischeid)and3SRESscenarios(A2,B1andA1b)areutilizedinthesefutureperiodcomparisons.

Presentations: Guentchev,G.,Barsugli,J.Eischeid,J.,Raff,D.,andBrekke,L.“HowwelldotheGCMsreplicatethehistoricalprecipitationvariabilityintheColoradoRiverBasin?”,December14th,2009,SanFrancisco,AGUFallmeeting,postersession.

Guetchenev,G.(October2009)“Statisticalsignificanceofthemodel‐observeddifferencesinprecipitationvariabilityforthehistorical1951‐1999period”,October5‐6,2009,ColoradoRiverHydrologyGroupmeeting,Boulder,CO.

Partners/Stakeholders USBR,SNWA

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ProjectTitle: IdentifyingLessonsfromtheMurray‐DarlingBasinPotentiallyApplicabletotheColoradoRiver

PrimaryInvestigator(s): D.Kenney

Contributors: R.Pulwarty

CoreFunding: WWA,NIDISFUNDING20009:JULY–DEC

Summary: AsclimaticandhydrologicinformationregardingtheColoradoRivercontinuestoimprove,itbecomesincreasinglyapparentthatthecurrentinstitutionalstructureinthebasinconstrainsdecision‐makersinhowtheyusethisnewinformationandhowtheycanadapttothechallengesofclimatevariabilityandchange.Inthespiritofidentifyingpotential“newinstitutionalpathways,”theMurray‐DarlingBasin(MDB)(Australia)experiencemayprovideinsightfultodecision‐makersintheColoradoBasin,asseveralfundamentalcomponentsoftheinstitutionalenvironmentintheMDBhavebeensuccessfullymodifiedovertime,mostrecentlydrivenbytheneedtoadapttoa“climateshift”andadesiretoimplementmoresustainablepatternsofwatermanagement.

ProposedWork: SeveralelementsoftheMDBinstitutionalenvironmentarepotentiallyrelevantasabasisforcomparisonandinsight,including:theuseofbasinwideplanningprocessesand/orriverbasincommissions;therelationshipbetweenStatesandthenational(federal)government(especiallyasitinvolvesdecisionsaboutinterstateallocation);thespecificationofwaterrights/entitlementsamongusers,sectors,andjurisdictions(includingindigenous/nativecommunities)atboththeinterstateandsub‐statescale;theuse(andlimits)ofmarketsforwaterreallocation;themechanismsusedtoensureadequateflowsforenvironmentalpurposes;theroleofthegovernmentissupporting/shapingtheroleoftheagriculturalsector(bothhistoricallyandlookingforward);andtherolesofkeyclimateinformationproviders.Inthisproject,theseelementsoftheMDBinstitutionwillbereviewedandcomparedtotheColoradoRiverBasin,withtheaimofidentifyingtransferrablelessons.

Progress/Results: Researchtodatehasprimarilyfocusedontherelationshipbetweenthebasinplan(andrelatedelementsofAustralia’snewWaterAct)totheevolvingstructureofstate‐federalrelationsinthatcountry.ItisthiselementofAustralia’sreformsthatmayultimatelybemostsalienttotheColoradoRiver,asapersistentchallengeintheColoradoisthepromotionofrealbasin‐wideplanningandactionwithinaframeworkofstate‐centricwaterallocations/rights.Thisissuehasbeeninvestigatedthroughliterature,interviews(includingavisittoBoulderbyDanielConnellorganizedbypartnersatTheNatureConservancy),ongoingconsultationswiththeAssistantDirectoroftheMurray‐DarlingBasinAuthority,andbyattendanceatameetingatNorthernArizonaUniversityinJulyentitled:“WatershedManagementandPolicyDevelopment:LearningfromAustralia.”Ultimately,thegoalofthisprojectistousethesweepingreformsintheMurray‐DarlingBasinasamechanismforstimulatingandbroadeningdiscussionsabouttheprospectsforinstitutionalreformandclimatechangeadaptationintheColoradoRiverBasin.Thisisnowoccurring,asevidencedbythesuccessfuleffortsoftheWWAandtheNRLC(NaturalResourcesLawCenter)tosecurefundingfromtheWaltonFamilyFoundationtosupportaColoradoRiverGovernanceInitiative,whichisnowexaminingasuiteofpossibleinstitutionalreformsontheriver.TheMurray‐Darlingcaseisoneofthefeaturedreformoptionsunderconsideration.

Partners/Stakeholders NIDIS

ProjectTitle: ReconcilingColoradoRiverFlowProjections

PrimaryInvestigator(s): D.Cayan,T.Das,D.Lettenmaier,J.Overpeck,H.Hartmann,R.Webb,M.Hoerling,B.Udall

Contributors: J.Barsugli,J.Eischeid

CoreFunding: NOAACPOCross‐RISAFUNDING2009:JAN–DEC

Summary: Millyetal.(2008)arguethatstationarity,aconceptthatisattheheartofmostwaterresourcesoperationsandplanningmethods,“isdead”.Theimplicitassumptionassociatedwithstationarityisthatthepastisareasonablerepresentationofthefuture(atleastinastatisticalsense),andthereforerisksofunfavorableoutcomes(e.g.,inabilitytomeetdemandsforwater)canbeestimatedbymethodsthatresamplefrompastobservations,e.g.,ofclimateand/orstreamflow.VariationsofsuchapproacheshavebeenwidelyusedinwaterplanningstudiesfortheColoradoRiverbasin.Ontheotherhand,recentpapersbySeageretal.(2007),ChristensenandLettenmaier(2007),andMillyetal.(2005)(hereafterS2007;CL2007;andM2005,respectively)havesuggestedthatsubstantialchangesinrunoffmayoccuroverthenextcenturyintheColoradoRiverBasin.However,therangeofestimatedimpactsonColoradoRiverdischarge(allbasedonIPCC2007modelruns)islarge–fromalowat2050ofabout6%inCL2007,toover18%inS2007.Notsurprisingly,theregion’swatermanagersviewwithgreatconcernthepotentialforlargechangesintheflowoftheColoradoRiver.Ofevengreaterconcern,though,has

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beenthewiderangeofprojections–aslargeas45%inHoerlingandEischeid(2007)bymidcentury.to1901‐1970,interpolatedtoUSGSwaterresourcesregions.ResultsarereplottedfromM2005;takenfromBacklundetal(2008).

ProposedWork: Evaluatealternativedatasets;extendtocurrentyearandqualitycontrol.

Diagnosereasonsfordifferencesintemperaturesensitivitiesamongmodels.

Reconciliationofclimatescenarios.

EvaluateColoradoRiverdischargesensitivitiesfromNARCCAPruns.

Continueddiagnosisoftheroleofhighelevationfeedbackonprojectedfuturesensitivities.

PreliminaryanalysisofAR5GCMscenarios.

(Seeoriginalproposalforadditionaldetails.)

Progress/Results: Althoughseveralpapersdirectlyrelatedtothisworkhavebeenpublishedthisyear,thefinalstepsofworkonthisprojecthavenotyetbeencompleted.Completionisexpectedinthecomingsixmonthsandresultswillbereportedinsubsequentyears.

Deliverables: StakeholderMeeting

Technicalandstakeholderpapers

Publications: Barsugli,J.,K.Nowak,etal.(2009).Commenton‘WhenWillLakeMeadGoDry?’WaterResourcesResearch45(W09601).

Rajagopalan,B.,K.Nowak,J.Prairie,M.Hoerling,B.Harding,J.Barsugli,A.Ray,andB.Udall(2009),WatersupplyriskontheColoradoRiver:Canmanagementmitigate?,WaterResour.Res.,45,W08201,doi:10.1029/2008WR007652.

Partners/Stakeholders InadditiontheparticipatingRISAgroups,theprojectincludesrepresentativesfromOI/USBR&USGS,USDA/NRCS,NOAA/GFDL,SevenBasinStates,WGA,andNOAA/CPO/CDEPfundedARCs.StakeholdersincludeawatermanagersfromtheBureauofReclamation(Powell,Mead)andStategovernmentsofUtah,Wyoming,andColorado,urban/localwatersupplymanagers(Denver,SaltLakeCity,NorthernColoradoWaterConservancyDistrict),andecosystems/environmental/recreationalresourcemanagers(ForestService,EPA,NPS,USGS/BRD,NGOs).

ProjectTitle: ColoradoRiverinflowsbetweenLakesMeadandPowell:Past,PresentandFuture

PrimaryInvestigator(s): J.Barsugli

CoreFunding: WWAFUNDING2009:JULY–DEC

Summary: Itisestimatedthatover800,000acre‐feetayearofwaterflowsintotheColoradoRiverbetweenGlenCanyonDamandHooverDam.TheseflowsarenotnearlyaswellknownastheflowatLeesFerry.Forexample,inwritingourcritiqueofBarnettandPierce’s“WhenWillLakeMeadGoDry?”,wediscoveredthattheycompletelyignoredtheseinflowsintheirwaterbalancecalculations.Evenforthosewhoareawareoftheseflows,theirmagnitudecanbeindispute.Arefereeofourmanuscriptcalledintoquestionourestimate,citingpublicinformationavailableontheWeb.

Duetoincreasingdemandandpotentiallydecreasingheadwatersflows,theseflowscan“makeorbreak”thewaterbudgetoftheLowerColorado.IncontrasttotheColoradoHeadwaters,climatemodelsshowconsistentdryinginthisregion,sotheseflowsmaybeparticularlyvulnerabletoclimatechange.Othersareinterestedintheseflowsforanumberofreasons.TheCBRFC(GregSmith)hasindependentlyinvestigatedisworkingwithReclamationtoreconciletheirmodelingassumptionsonthisstretchoftheriver.TheUSGS(TedMelis)isalsointerestedinsharinginformationontheseflows.

ProposedWork: Iproposetocoordinateaworkshopthatfocusesonthewatersupplyaspectoftheseflowsandthatbringstogetherscientistsworkingonthisissuewiththegoalofreconcilingthedataandmodelingassumptionsusedtoestimatethehistoricflows,andtodiscussthepotentialforclimatechangeimpacts.Thegoaloftheworkshopistoleadtoapublicationthatsummarizesthestateofknowledgeontheseflowssothatthisinformation.Inadditiontocoordinating,Iwouldliketoresearchtherelationofhistoricalclimatevariabilitytotheobservedflows.Thisseemslikesomethingwecouldnaildownfairlyquickly–atleastthepresentstateofthedataandmodelingassumptions.

Progress/Results: Workonthisprojectwasdelayedduetoemerginghigh‐priorityactivitiesrequiringJ.Barsugli’sinvolvement.This

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projectwillproceedin2010underano‐costextensionandresultswillbereportedinsubsequentyears.

Partners/Stakeholders USBR

ProjectTitle: ImpactsofcoupledclimatechangeanddustdepositiononwaterresourcesintheColoradoRiverBasin

PrimaryInvestigator(s): T.Painter,J.Deems

CoreFunding: WWA,NSIDCFUNDING2009:JULY–DEC

Summary: RecentresultshaveshownthatdesertdustdepositiononmountainsnowpackintheColoradoRiverBasin(CRB)shortenssnowcoverdurationbyapproximatelyonemonththroughitsenhancementofabsorbedsolarradiation(Painteretal.,2007).FromanalysisofdustloadinginlakesedimentsinthemountainsoftheCRB(Neffetal.,2008;Reynoldsetal.,2009),weknowthatthesustaineddisturbanceofpreviouslystablelandsintheColoradoPlateauandGreatBasinthatbeganinthelatterhalfofthe1800shasledtoa5‐foldincreaseindustdepositionoverthatoftheprevious5000years.Basedonthisevidence,wehypothesizethattheacceleratedmeltassociatedwiththisdramaticincreaseindustdepositionhasaffectedthebasinhydrographandultimatelydecreasedyieldbyincreasingevapotranspirationanddecreasingsoilmoisture.Ourinitialmodelingindicatesthattheincreaseddustloading(representedbyamodifiedsnowalbedoparameterization)hasmarkedlymodifiedthehydrographanddecreasedannualwateryieldintheupperbasin(aboveLeeFerry,AZ)byanaverageof5%or0.8MAFsincesignificantdustdepositionbegan(Painteretal.,2009a),withatotallossofyieldof70MAFacross1915‐2003.SeveralstudieshaveshowndecreasingtrendsinpeaksnowaccumulationintheCRBoverthepastcentury(e.g.Hamletetal.,2005;Barnettetal.,2008),andprojectionsoffutureclimatescenariospointtodecreasesinstreamflowduetoatmosphericwarminganddecreasesinprecipitation(Christensenetal.,2004;2007).Climatewarminghasalsobeenprojectedtoincreasethefrequencyandseverityofdrought,toincreaseinterannualprecipitationvariability,andtoincreasethearealexpanseofdesertregions.TheseresponsesshouldincreasethefrequencyandmagnitudeofdustemissionfromdesertsinthesouthwestUSundercontinuedlevelsofsoildisturbance.Itislikelythattheimpactsofawarmingclimateonsnowaccumulation,snowmelt,andCRBwateryieldwillbestronglyenhancedbyincreaseddustemissionanddepositiononmountainsnowpacks.Bycontrast,modifiedlandmanagementpracticesindesertsystemsoftheColoradoPlateauandGreatBasinmayprovideameanstoincreasewateryieldormitigatelosses.

ProposedWork: WeproposetoexaminetherangeofchangestowateryieldintheupperCRBbycouplingpotentialclimatechangescenariosanddustdepositionscenarios.TheVariableInfiltrationCapacity(VIC)macroscalehydrologicmodelwillbeusedtosimulatethesnowcoverandmeltacrossthebasin,andthenaturalizedhydrographandannualCRBwateryieldatvariousgagesintheCRBculminatingatLeeFerry,AZ,forthehistoricperiodof1915‐2008,andforthreefuturetimeperiods:2010‐2039,2040‐2069,and2070‐2100.Inyear1,wewillassesshowPDLandEDLdustscenariosmodifythewaterbalanceandyieldrelativetotheADLacrossthehistoricalperiodof1915‐2008.Wewillalsointensivelystudytheperiod2000–2008asthiscoincideswiththeNASAEOSTerrasatelliterecordduringwhichwehavedatafromtheModerateResolutionImagingSpectroradiometerwithwhichtoinferradiativeforcinganddirectlyassessradiativeforcingsbydustrepresentedbyVIC.Inordertoperformthisassessment,wewillcomparethespatiallydistributedradiativeforcingsbydustinsnowfromVIC(intermediateproducts)withradiativeforcingsinsnowinferredfromtheMODISDustRadiativeForcinginSnow(MOD‐DRFS)model(Figure2),developedbyPIPainter(Painter,2009b).

Progress/Results: InitialVICmodelset‐upinprogress.CollaborationestablishedwithUWresearchersforensuringVICmodelversionanddrivingdatacoherencewithongoing“ReconcilingProjectionsofFutureColoradoRiverStreamFlow”project.

SubmissionofpapertoProceedingsoftheNationalAcademyofSciences.

CompleteinstallationoffullenergybalanceandradiationtoweratGrandMesa.Thisestablishesthe3rdtowerinthegrowingWesternEnergyBalanceoverSnow(WEBS)networkthatisoperatedbyPIPainterwithChrisLandry,CenterforSnowandAvalancheStudies(CSAS).

MyriadinvitedtalksincludingheadliningAnnualMeetingoftheColoradoRiverWaterConservancyDistrict,pressreleaseatNASASymposiumforEarthSystemScienceat20years,andpresentationofresultstoAnneCastle,AssistantSecretaryofInteriorforWaterandPower.

CompleteprocessingofenergybalanceandsnowmeltmodeldataforSenatorBeckStudyPlotandSwampAngelStudyPlot,SenatorBeckBasinStudyAreafor2004‐2009.Generalizedtoolsarenowestablishedforeasierprocessingofdatafor2010andbeyondandfortheGrandMesaStudyPlot.ProcessingofthesedataprovideconstraintsfortheVICmodelingdescribedintheproposedwork.

Presentations: Painter:GuyF.AtkinsonDistinguishedLectureSeries,DepartmentofGeologyandGeophysics,UniversityofUtah,WhereDesertsandMountainsCollide:theImplicationsofAcceleratedSnowmeltbyDesertDust,May2009.

Painter:NASAEarthSystemScienceat20yearsSymposium,WhereMountainsandDesertsCollide:Implications

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ofAcceleratedSnowmeltbyDisturbedDesertDust,NationalAcademyofSciences,Washington,DC,June2009.

Painter:WhenDesertsandMountainsCollide:TheImpactofDesertDustonSnowmeltHydrologyintheColoradoRiverBasin,JetPropulsionLaboratoryScienceVisitorandColloquiumProgram,Pasadena,CA,August2009.

Painter,Belnap:What’stheDirtySecretofDirtySnow?AnnualmeetingoftheColoradoRiverWaterConservancyDistrict,GrandJunction,CO,September2009.

Painter,Belnap,Udall:ImpactofDesertDustonSnowmeltResourcesintheColoradoRiverBasin,BriefingtoAnneCastle,AssistantSecretaryoftheInteriorforWaterandScience,andmanyothers.DepartmentofInterior,Washington,DC,October2009.

Painter:Briefingsofcongressionalstaffers,USHouseSubcommitteeonWaterandPower+USSenateSubcommitteeEnergyandWaterResources+SenatorMarkUdall(CO),ImpactofDesertDustonSnowmeltResourcesintheColoradoRiverBasin,WashingtonDC,October2009.

Painter:DirtyLittleSecretsoftheGreatestSnowonEarth,GreenMonthSustainabilityLectureSeriesatParkCity,sponsoredbySwanerandtheUniversityofUtahOfficeofSustainability,(withPeterMetcalfandJimSteenburgh),October2009.

DeemsandPainter:DesertDustImpactsonColoradoRiverBasinSnowpackandRunoffEmergingIssuesinClimateChange‐UNEPExpertWorkshop,NewDelhi,India,December2009

Deems:DustonSnow:EarlySnowmeltintheColoradoRiverBasin,AspenCenterforEnvironmentalStudies,NaturalistNightsLectureSeries,February2010

Painter:UniversityofUtahOfficeofSustainability,DirtyLittleSecretsoftheGreatestSnowonEarth(withJimSteenburgh),UniversityofUtah,February2010.

Painter:AltaEnvironmentalCenter,DirtyLittleSecretsoftheGreatestSnowonEarth(withJimSteenburgh),Alta,Utah,February2010.

Painter,etal.:WateryieldlossintheUpperColoradoRiverbasindrivenbydustradiativeforcinginsnow,FallMeetingAmericanGeophysicalUnion,SanFrancisco,CADecember2009.

Bryant,Painter:RadiativeforcingbydesertdustintheColoradoRiverBasinfrom2000to2009usingcoupledsatelliteandinsitumeasurements,FallMeetingAmericanGeophysicalUnion,SanFrancisco,CADecember2009.

Skiles,Painter,Barrett:Afive‐yearrecordofradiativeandhydrologicforcingbydesertdustintheColoradoRiverBasin,FallMeetingAmericanGeophysicalUnion,SanFrancisco,CADecember2009.

Publications: Painter,T.H.,J.S.Deems,J.Belnap,A.F.Hamlet,C.C.Landry,B.Udall.WateryieldlossintheUpperColoradoRiverbasindrivenbydustradiativeforcinginsnow,PNAS,inreview.

Partners/Stakeholders CWCB,ConservancyDistricts,USBR,USGS,CSAS

ProjectTitle: SeasonalForecasts

PrimaryInvestigator(s): K.Wolter

Contributors: NOAACPC

CoreFunding: WWAFUNDING2009:JAN–DEC

Summary: BuildingonadecadeofinvolvementwiththeWATFandwatermanagersfromvariousColoradowaterdistricts,Iwillcontinuethispartnershipthatentailsmonthlyupdatesofmyforecastwebpage(http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/SWcasts/).

ProposedWork: ThistranslatesintoamonthlysynthesisofrecentclimateconditionsonspatialscalesfromtheFrontRangeofColoradotoglobalENSO‐relatedfeatures,aswellastheexecutionandinterpretationofmyexperimentalclimateforecastproducts,culminatinginwidelydisseminated‘ExecutiveSummaries’.ThisinformationisalsoanimportantcomponentoftheWWAIntermountainWestClimateSummary(IWCS).

Progress/Results: Dependingondroughtconditions,Igivemonthly‐to‐seasonalbriefingstotheColoradoWaterAvailabilityTaskForceandotherstakeholdersonmyexperimentalclimateoutlooksaswellasonotherclimateforecastproducts.Thesebriefingsarebasedonmymonthlyupdatedwebpage(http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/SWcasts/)thatcoverstherecentandprojectedevolutionoftheENSOphenomenon,discussesthemostrecentClimatePredictionCenter(CPC)climateforecasts,andexaminesindetailmyownexperimentalforecastguidanceforthefullinteriorsouthwesternU.S.,withspecialemphasisonColorado.Thisincludessendingoutmy"executivesummary"tointerestedparties,mostlywatermanagers,andmediafolks.IhelpedtoedittheIWCSintermsofitsENSOassessmentsandforecastdiscussions(includingmyownexperimentalSWcasts).

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Onthenationalscale,myclimateforecastsareusedbywildfiremanagersinthewesternU.S.(10thannualfireassessmentworkshopinApril2009),andbyCPC,bothforseasonalclimateforecastsandinparticularfortheU.S.DroughtMonitorOutlook.MycontributionstoCPCinvolvemonthlyconferencecallsaheadoftheofficialforecastreleasedateinwhichIcontributemylatestexperimentalforecasts,andgivemygeneralassessmentoftheENSOsituation(thiscandifferfromtheofficialNOAAassessmentswhenmyMultivariateENSOIndex(http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/)departsfromNOAA’sNiño3.4SSTindex,butthiswasnotthecasein2009),andexpectedENSOimpactsintheU.S.IalsocontributetoCPC’smonthlyENSODiagnosticDiscussion(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/)bybriefingallinterestedpartiesonmymonthlyupdatedMEIaheadofCPC’sreleasedate.

RelatedtomyroleontheWATF,Ihavecontinuedtobeactiveonthe"DroughtPlanSubcommittee"fortheColoradoDroughtPlan,whichincludedameetinginDenverinDecember;also,aNIDISMeetingondroughtindices(SWSI)jointlywithCWCBinAugust(Boulder),inwhichIagreedtohelpwithevaluatingtheSWSIforColoradointhecontextoftheColoradoDroughtPlan.Thisworkwillbeperformedin2010,withsupportfromNIDIS.

Presentations: Wolter,ANewandImprovedMultivariateEnsoIndex(MEI),AmericanMeteorologicalSocietyMeeting,January14,2009

Wolter,SeasonalOutlookthroughMarch2009,ColoradoWaterAvailability&FloodTaskForce,January22,2009

Wolter,SeasonalOutlookthoughMay2009,ColoradoWaterAvailability&FloodTaskForce,February25,2009

Wolter,Letitsnow,LetitSnow,LetitSnow!,BixbyElementarySchool,March6,2009

Wolter,SeasonalOutlookthroughJune2009,ColoradoWaterAvailability&FloodTaskForce,March20,2009

Wolter,ExperimentalSeasonalClimateForecasts,BinationalDroughtScienceConference,March23,2009

Wolter,ThoughtsAbouttheNextThreetoFiveMonthsinNorthAmerica,withSpecialFocuson(South‐)EasternU.S.Videoconference,EasternSeasonalAssessmentWorkshop,NationalInteragencyFireCenter(NIFC),April14,2009

Wolter,ThoughtsAbouttheUpcomingSpring&SummerinNorthAmerica,withSpecialFocuson(South‐)WesternU.S.,NationalInteragencyFireCenterWorkshop,April14,2009

Wolter,"Natural"ClimateVariability,WesternRegionClimateChangeWorkshop,April15,2009

Wolter,SeasonalOutlookthroughSeptember2009,ColoradoWaterAvailability&FloodTaskForce,April22,2009

Wolter,SeasonalOutlookthroughSeptember2009,ColoradoWaterAvailability&FloodTaskForce,May27,2009

Wolter,SeasonalOutlookthroughOctober2009,ColoradoWaterAvailability&FloodTaskForce,June18,2009

Wolter,LongTermWeatherOutlook,ColoradoWaterAvailability&FloodTaskForce,July16,2009

Wolter,LongTermWeatherOutlook,ColoradoWaterAvailability&FloodTaskForce,August26,2009

Wolter,ClimateChangeinColorado:Present,Past,andFuture,BoulderAudubonSociety,September22,2009

Wolter,WhatDoesElNiñoMeanforDroughtinTexas?,NationalDroughtForum,October7,2009

Wolter,ElNiñoasa'Drought‐Buster'inTexas:HowReliableisit,orWhatCanweExpectthisWinter?AretheSeptemberRainsaSignofThingstoCome?,DroughtMonitorForum,October8,2009

Wolter,Panelist,SeasonalWeatherIndices,MDAEarthSatWeatherMeeting,October15,2009

Wolter,WhatcantheUpperColoradoBasinExpectthisWinter?,NOAANationalIntegratedDroughtInformationSystemWeeklyDroughtWebinars,November10,2009

Wolter,ReliabilityofENSOsignalinWesternU.S.inlastdecade,CaliforniaWaterResourcesWorkshop,November30,2009

Wolter,UpperColorado2009‐10:QuoVadis?,SevenStatesMeeting,December8,2009

Wolter,SnowStorms,ScienceDayLecture,October,2009

Wolter,WhatcanCaliforniaExpectThisWinter?,Winter2010OutlookWorkshop,November3,2009

Publications: 12monthlyexecutivesummaries,availableuponrequest

Partners/Stakeholders WATF,NOAACPC,CWCB,ColoradoWaterProviders

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ProjectTitle: TreeFlow:ADroughtPlanningResourceforWaterManagementintheWesternU.S.

PrimaryInvestigator(s): J.Lukas,C.Woodhouse

Contributors: S.Gray

CoreFunding: NOAACPOFUNDING2009:JAN—JUN

Summary: Paleohydrologicdataandinformationfromtreeringsareincreasinglyrecognizedasavaluabletoolfordroughtplanningandwaterresourcesmanagement.Therecentsevereandprolongeddroughtandagrowingawarenessoftheregionalimpactsofglobalclimatechange,coupledwithanincreasedindemandforwaterthatfarexceedsdemandsduringthe1950sdrought,havemadewatermanagersinthewesternU.S.realizetheneedfornewtoolsfordroughtplanningandwatermanagement.Thedevelopmentofhigh‐qualitytree‐ringbasedreconstructionsofstreamflowforagrowingnumberofwesternrivershascoincidedwiththisrealization.WithsupportfromNOAACPO,weareworkinghardtoengageresourcemanagersandfosterpartnershiptodeveloptree‐ringreconstructionsandapplicationsforregion‐specificwatermanagementanddroughtplanningneeds.Examplesoftheapplicationsofthereconstructionstowaterresourcemanagementnowabound(seebelow),butaprimetestimonytotheacceptanceofthereconstructionsasanimportantandusefulsourceofinformationistherecentlyapprovedColoradoRiverEnvironmentalImpactStatement,whichincludesmethodologiesforalternativehydrologicscenariosthatincorporatetree‐ringreconstructionsofColoradoRiverflow(BureauofReclamation2007).Whilethestreamflowreconstructionsarevaluableforthebroaderrangeofhydrologicvariabilitytheydocument,thepastrecordofstreamflowwillnotbeanexactanalogueforfutureflowsbecauseofglobalclimatechangeduetohumanactivities.Becauseofuncertaintiesinthemodelprojections,informationfromthepaleorecordcombinedwithfutureprojectionsmayyieldthemostlikelyrangeoffuturescenariosforplanningpurposes.

ProposedWork: Thegoalofthisprojectistoexpandtheusefulnessandvalueofstreamflowreconstructionsfordroughtplanningandwatermanagementtoabroaderrangeofwaterprovidersandresourcemanagers.Thisgoalwillbeaccomplishedusingatwo‐prongedapproachthatincludes1)anupdatedandcomprehensiveweb‐basedresourcefordata,applications,andanalysisthataddressesregionalneedsandinterests,andthatisdesignedtobeexpandabletoincludeadditionalregionsofinterestandreconstructionsthataregeneratedinthefuture,and2)thedevelopmentofaweb‐basedpaleotoolkittofacilitateapplicationsanduseofstreamflowreconstructions.

Themainobjectivesofthisstudyare:

TodevelopacentrallyorganizedwebpageresourcethatincorporatestheresourcesfrombothTreeFlowandtheworkshopwebpages,whilealsoaddressingregion‐specificwatermanagementneedsandinterests

Todevelopapaleotoolkitforanalyzinggagerecordsinthecontextofthecenturies‐longreconstructionsandtoassessfuturehydrologicscenariosbycombiningGCMresultswithpaleoflows.

Progress/Results: Thenew,expandedTreeFlowwebresource(http://treeflow.info)wentliveforreviewinlateJune2009andwaspubliclyannouncedtostakeholdersinSeptember2009.Thetop‐levelsectionsofthesiteinclude:(1)basin‐basedaccesstopaleohydrologydataforover60gagesacrossthewesternUS;(2)backgroundinformationontree‐ringdataandhowthestreamflowreconstructionsaredeveloped;(3)descriptionsofseveralcurrentapplicationsofthedatatowatermanagement;(4)agendas,presentations,andreportsfrom13tree‐ringworkshopsfrom2006‐2009;and(5)amulti‐pagefeature,ColoradoRiverStreamflow:APaleoPerspective.

ThenewTreeFlowsiteentailedthedevelopmentofcontentandcodeforabout100newHTMLpages,includingpagesforeachof60‐somepaleohydrologydatasetsacrossthewesternUS(http://treeflow.info/basin.html).ThenewTreeFlowsitealsoincludedthedevelopmentofafullytext‐annotatedPowerPointpresentationdescribingthegenerationofpaleohydrologydataandtheiruseinwaterresourcemanagement(http://treeflow.info/docs/treeflow_reconstructions&applications_annotated.ppt).Plannedfollowupwork(usingSARPfunding)in2010includesthefinalizingofthe“paleotoolkit”,andworkwithWyomingandUtahcollaboratorsonancillarypagesandresources.

Presentations: Lukas,J.“TreeFlow:Usingtree‐ringpaleohydrologyasaplanningtool.”WesternWatershedsandClimateChange‐WaterandAquaticSystemToolsWorkshop(USDAForestService).Boulder,CO,November18,2009.

Lukas,J.“Tree‐ringpaleohydrologiesandtheirapplicationtowatermanagementinColoradoandtheWest.”HydrologicSciencesandWaterResourcesEngineeringSeminar,UniversityofColorado,Boulder,CO,February4,2009.

Lukas,J.“WhattreeringstellusabouthydrologicvariabilityinColoradoandDenverWater’swatersheds.”DenverWaterPlanningForum,Denver,CO,January15,2009.

Publications: Lukas,J.(2009)."TreeFlow:AComprehensiveWebResourceforTree‐ringReconstructionsofStreamflow."IntermountainWestClimateSummary5(5).

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Partners/Stakeholders Regional,state,local,andprivatewaterprovidersandagencies,andotherwaterusers,suchasstakeholdersintheagricultureandhydropowersectors.

EcologicalVulnerabilities,Impacts,andAdaptation

Table2.

ProjectTitle: Forests,Climate,andChange

PrimaryInvestigator(s): E.Gordon,J.Lukas

Contributors: L.Dilling,S.vanDrunick,J.McCutchan,A.Ray

Summary: WeproposetobringWWA’slongstandingroleinsciencesynthesisandassessment,insupportofdecisionmakingandadaptation,tobearonvulnerabilitiesandimpactsarisingfromclimate‐relatedchangesinforestecosystems.Duringthefirstyear,wewillfocusontheongoingmountainpinebeetle(MPB)infestation,whichhasbeenlinkedtorecentclimatetrendsandiscausingsignificantandwidespreadchangesinforestecosystemsinColoradoandadjacentstates.Impactstowaterresourcesandtheriskofhigh‐severityfirearecitedasthemostseriousmanagementconcerns.ArecentletterfromtheColoradocongressionaldelegationtoseveralfederalagencies,requestingfundingandactiontodealwiththeinfestation,indicatestheveryhighstakeholdersalienceofMPB‐relatedrisksandvulnerabilities.

ProposedWork: Wehavegatheredinputforthisproposalfromseveralkeystakeholdersandscientists,includingMarcWaage,DenverWater;RickCables,USFS;ThereseGlowacki,BoulderCountyParks&OpenSpace;GarySeverson,NWCCOG,andTaniaSchoennagel,CUforestecologist.TheyagreedthatWWAcouldserveausefulroleasacoordinatorandproviderofinformationfordecisionsupportonforest‐changeissues,andtheirguidanceisreflectedintheproposedproductsandoutreachbelow.WeproposetosolicitinputfromabroadersetofstakeholdersinMPB‐affectedareastoidentifyinformationneedsfordecisionmaking.Wewillthendevelopsciencesynthesisproductstofillthebroadestneeds,andproposenewresearchtofillcriticalgaps.Concurrently,andinthelightofthesciencesynthesisproducts,wewillexaminecurrentplanningandmanagementresponsestotheMPBinfestation.GordonwillincorporatethisinformationintoabroaderdissertationexaminingwhetherresponsestomajorecologicalvulnerabilitiespresentinColorado,suchasfire,drought,andbeetleattacks,caninformstrategiesforsuccessfuladaptationtoclimatevulnerabilityandclimatechange.WewillalsoworkcloselywithAndreaRayregardingherproposedinteractionswithfederalresourcemanagerstoensurecoordinationofactivitiesandinformationthatwouldservetheinterestsofbothprojects.

Progress/Results: ThebulkofworkforthisprojecthasbeentoorientWWAandourselveswithongoingdiscussionsanddebatesoverdealingwiththemountainpinebeetleepidemicinColoradoandsouthernWyoming.DoingsohasmadeusknowntopersonsinvolvedintheissueandhashelpeduscarveoutafurtherroleforWWAinthearenaofforest‐climateinteractions.Todate,wehavemetindividuallywith:

RickCablesandPollyHays,USFSRegion2

MarcWaageandDonKennedy,DenverWater

TaniaSchoennagel,CU‐Boulder/INSTAAR

TonyCheng,ColoradoForestRestorationInstitute

ChuckRhoadesandLindaJoyce,USFSRockyMountainResearchStation

ThereseGlowackiandChadJulian,BoulderCountyParksandOpenSpace

PaigeLewisandMikeBabler,TheNatureConservancy

GarySeverson,NorthwestColoradoCouncilofGovernments

OnDecember7,2009,weorganizedabroadlyscopedmeetingentitled“MakingConnections:PineBeetles,Water,Climate,Fire,andtheFutureForest.”The40participantsrepresentedadiversesetofstakeholders(includingwatermanagers,landmanagers,andpolicymakers)andscientistsresearchingbeetle‐relatedissues.Weconductedthemeetingbyarranginginformalpanelsonwaterimpacts,thefire‐beetleconnection,climateandthefutureforest,andpolicyandpolitics.Themeetingprovidedparticipantswiththeopportunitytomeetandtalkwitheachother,andtoassessthecurrentstateofbothdecisionmakerconcernsandscientificresearch.Manyparticipantscommentedthattheyfoundthemeetingusefulandthatitwashelpfulinbridgingthestakeholder‐scientistdivide.Wenotedinparticularcontinueddebateoverscientists’andpolicymakers’

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assessmentsofthefireriskofbeetle‐killedforestsandtheresultingpolicyimplications.

Tofurtherscience‐stakeholderconnectionsrelatedtobarkbeetleissues,wesolicitedresponsesfrommeetingattendeestoasurveyaimedatunderstandingstakeholderconcernsandfuturescientificefforts.WeareusingtheresultsofthissurveytohelpbuildcontentfortheBarkBeetleInformationClearinghouse,aweb‐basedsourceforcontacts,scientificliterature,newspaperarticles,andothercontentwehopewillbeusefulforstakeholdersandothersconcernedaboutthebarkbeetleepidemic.

Ourproposeddeliverables(seebelow)includedtwosciencesynthesisreports,oneonwater‐relatedimpactsofbeetleinfestationsandoneonclimate‐relatedeffectsonbeetleinfestations.Duringthecourseoftheproject,wehavediscoveredthattheColoradoWaterInstitutehadengagedJohnStednick,aprofessoratColoradoStateUniversity,towriteareportonwaterimpacts.Weareawaitingfurtherinformationaboutthisreportbeforelookingforanadditionalrelevantopportunity,butGordonhasalreadyengagedpotentialco‐authorsandreviewersforapaperwhenwebetterunderstandhowitcanbeusefulwithoutbeingredundant.Lukasisbeginningtheprocessofcompilingexistingresearchtodevelopasynthesisreportonclimate‐beetleconnections.

Duringthecourseofourinvestigation,wealsodiscoveredthatresearchersacrossanumberofinstitutions,includingCU‐Boulder,CSU,NCAR,NOAA,andUSGSareallworkingonnewresearchrelatedtotheimpactsofbeetleinfestationsonwaterqualityandquantity.Wearecurrentlysolicitingfeedbackonaproposedwater‐beetlessciencesymposiumtobeheldinthespring.

Finally,aspartofearlyeffortstodefinehisPhDdissertationwork,Gordonispreparingapaperarguingforanempiricalapproachtodefiningsuccessorfailureinadaptation.ThispaperwouldcontendthattheongoingbarkbeetleinfestationinColoradoandelsewhereacrossNorthAmericamakesagoodcasestudyforunderstandinghowvariousregionshavesuccessfullyorunsuccessfullyadaptedtoamajorenvironmentalchange.ThepaperwasacceptedtotheICARUSworkshoponClimateVulnerabilityandAdaptation:TheoryandCasesinFebruary2010attheUniversityofIllinoisatUrbana‐Champaign.

Wewouldliketoemphasizethat,duetotheexploratoryandopen‐endednatureofthisproject,thescopeofourdeliverableshaschangedsomewhatwhencomparedtoouroriginalprojectproposal.

Presentations: Gordon,E.andLukas,J.IdentifyingPolicymakers’ScienceNeedsforClimateAdaptationinNationalForests.PosterPresentedatAmericanGeophysicalUnion,December17,2009.

Publications: Gordon,E.andDilling,L.AnEmpiricalApproachtoDefiningSuccessinAdaptation.AbstractacceptedtoICARUSWorkshoponClimateVulnerabilityandAdaptation:TheoryandCases,February11‐13,2010.

Partners/Stakeholders Forestandlandmanagers(USFS,BLM,NPS,CSFS);waterresourcemanagers(DenverWater,Northern,CRWCD,localwaterutilities);Coloradopublicofficialsatthefederal,state,county,andmunicipallevels;interagencyMPBtaskforcesandcooperatives

ProjectTitle: ClimateChangeImpactsonPublicLandsintheUpperColoradoRiverBasin

PrimaryInvestigator(s): J.Neff

Contributors: BLM

CoreFunding: WWA,NIDISFUNDING2009:JULY–DEC

Summary: TheFederalGovernmentisresponsibleforthemanagementofmuchofthelandinthewesternUnitedStates;inColoradoalone,theBureauofLandManagementandUSForestServiceadministerover35%oftheacreageofthestate.Theselandsencompassavastarrayofecosystemsthatrangefromdesertstoalpinetundraandincludeusesasdiverseaswildernessrecreationandresourceextraction.Alloftheseenvironments,whetherpristineorhighlydisturbed,willchangeastheresultofclimatechangeandthenatureandimpactsofthesechangesrepresentsoneofthemajoremergingchallengestolandmanagersinthecomingdecades.

Climateisaprimarydriverofecologicalprocessandecosystemstructure.InthewesternUS,droughtisamajorcauseofchangesinecologicalcommunitiesandecosystemfunction.Recentwork,includingthatsupportedbytheWWA,clearlyindicatesthepotentialforsevereandrepeatedregionaldroughtcycles(WoodhouseandLukas,2006).Recentregionalmulti‐yeardroughteventshaveresultedinmajorchangesinecosystemssuchastherecentwidespreadmortalityofpinyontreesintheFourCornersRegion(Breshearsetal.,2005)andthereisevidencethatariditymayincreaseinthefutureduetoclimatechange(Cooketal.,2004).Theimplicationsofthesepotentialchangesrangefrommanagementofforestsystemswithextensivedrought‐relatedmortalitytocostlyanddestructiveincreasesinthefrequencyandseverityofwildlandfire(c.f.Westerlingetal.,2006);eventsthathavebroadconsequencesforbothhuman(Butryetal.,2001)andbiogeochemicalsystems(WiedinmyerandNeff,2007).Thebasicandcriticalroleofclimateanddroughtecosystemdynamicsisclear,thebroaderissueofhowclimatechangecanandshouldinformdecision‐makingonfederallandsisfarlessso.

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Changesinclimatewillimpactlandmanagementdecision‐makingonmultiplelevels.Climatechangemaybecome(andarguablyalreadyhasbecome)acomponentofexistingfederallawssuchastheNationalEnvironmentalProtectionAct(NEPA),andtheEndangeredSpeciesAct(ESA).Newlegislationsuchasproposedcapandtradesystemsforcarboncouldalsoimpactmanagementofawiderangeofecosystemsthathaverelativelylargeratesofcarbonexchangewiththeatmosphere(forestsinparticular).Finally,climatechangewillimpactmanagersbecauseitwillalterthestateorfunctionofecosystems(whatdopinyonforestsbecomewhenthetreesdieduetodrought?)andbecausemanyfederalagencieshaveimplicitorexplicitplanningtimehorizonsthataremeasuredindecades(whatspeciesoftreesshouldbeplantedatasitefollowingalargewildlandfire?).Nearlyallthefederalagencieshavehadsomedirectiontoconsiderclimatechangeinplanningbutinmanyormostcases,limitedguidanceastohowtodoso.OfthemajorlandmanagementagenciesintheWesternUS(theUSFS,BLMandtheNationalParkService‐NPS),theBLMinparticularhashadrelativelylittleinstitutionalfocusonclimatechangeadaptationplanningandisthereforetheprimaryfocusofthisproposal.

ProposedWork: Inthisproject,weproposetoworkwiththeBLMinColorado,Utah,andatthenationalofficetoinitiatetheprocessofevaluatinghowclimatechangewillimpactpubliclands.Overthepasttwoyears,wehaveestablishedacloseworkingrelationshipwiththeSanJuanPublicLandsCenterinDurango,CO(ajointUSFSandBLMlandmanagementcenter)andincollaborationwithBLMstaffatthecenter,developedaninitialprojectpreparinganalysisofpotentialclimatechangestotheSWColoradoregionusingtheNorthAmericanRegionalClimateChangeAssessmentProgram(NARCCAP)simulations.WithNOAAandWWAsupport,weproposetoleverageourexistingworkevaluatingpotentialclimatechangeimpactstotheregiontosupportabroaderspatialevaluationoflandareasparticularlyvulnerabletopotentialclimatechanges.

Progress/Results: In2009,weinitiatedseveraleffortstomoveforwardonourproposedwork.IntheareaofrefiningandutilizingdownscaledGCMprojections,wearepartneringwithagroupofresearchersincludingImitiazRangwala(NOAApostdoc)andJoeBarsugli(CIRESANDWWA)toexamineNARCCAPsimulationsfortheFourCornersregion(asatestcaseforabroaderregionalevaluationofthedownscaledprojections).

WereceivedasupplementtoourBLMfundingforclimateimpactsworkintheFourCornersregionthatallowedustohireKarenCozzettoasanewpostdoctoralfellowworkingonthisproject.KarenwillbejointlysupportedbytheBLMandNOAAwesternwaterassessmentfor2010(CozzettoissupportedbyWWAratherthanFernandezaswasproposedintheoriginalbudget).Karenisleadingeffortstoaddressthedeliverablesproposedinouroriginalproposal:

Deliverables1and4:ReporttoBLMmanagersontheuseofexistingrangelandassessmentandmonitoringprotocolsforclimatechangeimpactsanalysisandwebsitehostedatCU(underthehttp://moab.colorado.edusitethatsummarizesongoingandpotentialclimateimpactstopubliclands.InconsultationwiththeBLM,wehaveinitiatedamonthlyconferencecalltodiscussclimatechangesciencesupportforlandmanagementdecisions.ThefirstconferencecallwillbeheldonJanuary27,2010andwillfocusondownscalinganddroughtimpactprojections.Thepurposeofthesecallsistoprovideavenueforscience/managementinteraction.AnumberofpeopleincludingBLMstateoffice,SanJuanPublicLandsOffice,CUBoulder,NOAAandUSGSpersonnelwillparticipateinthesecalls.WearepreparingabimonthlynewsletterfordistributiontoBLMandDept.ofInteriorstaffthatprovidesupdatesonprojectsandoverviewsofissuesrelatedtoclimatechangeassessmentsandimpactsanalysis.Thefirstnewsletterisavailableathttp://moab.colorado.edu/ClimateImpactsPublicLands/newsletter_2010_01.Thesenewsletterswillprovidearapidandrelativelyinformalmechanismforcommunicatingresearchprogresstomanagers.ThesenewsletterswillbehostedonanewwebsiteatCUBoulderthatwilladdressthedeliverablesunder#4below.Thiswebsiteiscurrentlyunderconstructionandwillbehostedathttp://moab.colorado.edu/ClimateImpactsPublicLands.

Deliverables2and3:Wearecurrentlycarryingouttheinitialmodelingeffortstoaddressourdeliverables2and3below.WeareusinganaridlandvadosezonehydrologymodeldevelopedbyEricTiltonatCUBouldertosimulatesoilwaterdynamicsandevaluatelikelyplantwaterstressduringdroughtconditions.WeareusingthemodelinitiallyfortwocasestudiesofpinyonjuniperecosystemsnearDurango,CO.Ourgoalistocarryoutsimulationsforarangeofcasestudycombinationsthatarerepresentativeofthecommonsoil,elevational,andvegetationcombinationsontheColoradoPlateau.Thisapproachallowsustofocusoureffortsonunderstandingthemechanisms,includingtheinteractionbetweenvegetationandsoiltype,thatcontrolecologicalresponsestodroughtinthisregion.Asimilartypeofeffortusingspatiallyresolvedmodelswouldincreasethecomplexityoftheanalysisandlikelydecreasethequalityofmechanisticunderstandingthatemergesfromtheanalysis.

Usingourmodelingapproachwearefocusingonthefollowingdynamicsinthenearterm.First,wearemodelingthewaterstressassociatedwithhistorical(observationalrecord)droughtsontheColoradoPlateau.Thisisdonebyusingclimaterecordstodriveourmodelfordifferentvegetation,soilandelevationalcombinations.Theresultingdatawillthenbeanalyzedtodeterminehowsoilconditions(e.g.depth/texture),vegetationcomposition(e.g.forest,shrubland,grassland),andelevation(e.g.evaporativepotential)moderateoramplifytheeffectsofregionaldroughts.Theseresultswillbeclassifiedintodifferentcategoriesbasedonthelandscapecharacterizationaboveandthetype(winter,summer)andduration(short,multiyear)ofdrought.Fromtheseclassifications,wewillgenerateamapsofcategoricalvariablesthatrepresentspotentiallandscapescalevulnerabilitytodroughtcycles.Thisanalysiswillbecomethecorepartofapublicationthatwewillprepareforapeerreviewedjournalinthesummerof2010.

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Ourfutureeffortswillfocusontestingourprojectedvulnerabilityagainstsatellite‐derivedmapsofvegetationgreennessduringthe~2000regionaldroughtandprojectionsofpotentialvulnerabilitytothetypeanddurationofdroughtperiodsprojectedbytheNARCCAPsimulations.IntheabsenceofreliableprecipitationdatafromtheNARCCAPsimulations,wewillfocusonincreaseinevapotranspirationassociatedwithrisingtemperaturesandcarryoutasensitivityanalysisthatfocusesonpotentialchangesinprecipitation.

Presentations: None.(NOTE:informalpresentationstoBLMpersonnelhavetakenplaceandashortworkshopisscheduledforlaterinFebruary2010)

Publications: Websitecontent:http://moab.colorado.edu/ClimateImpactsPublicLands/Welcome2.html

Partners/Stakeholders BLM

ProjectTitle: EffectsofMountainPineBeetleonWaterQualityinColorado

PrimaryInvestigator(s): J.McCutchan,S.vanDrunick

Contributors: E.Gordon,T.Detmer,J.Lukas

Summary: Arecentoutbreakofmountainpinebeetle(Dendroctonusponderosae)ischangingthestructureofmontanepineforestsinColorado.Lodgepolepineshavesufferedhighmortalityinmanywatersheds,andtheextentofaffectedwatershedsisgrowing.Thecurrentoutbreakisnotunprecedented;similaroutbreakshaveoccurredpreviouslyinColoradoandelsewhereinwesternNorthAmerica.However,theeffectsofthecurrentoutbreakwillbelong‐lasting(i.e.,decadestocenturies).Climatechangemayalterthedynamicequilibriumbetweenthemountainpinebeetle(MPB)andlodgepoleforestsinColorado.Forexample,iftheclimatebecomeswarmeranddrier,theconditionsthatsupportMPBoutbreaks–warmwintertemperaturesandlowsoilmoisture–maybecomedominant,andthedistributionoflodgepolepinemaybealtered.

TreemortalitycausedbyMPBisaffectingforestresourcesandtourismacrosswesternNorthAmerica;however,large‐scaleddieoffsovermostofawatershedalsochangethemagnitudeandtimingofhydrologicfluxes.Growingforestsinterceptsomeoftheprecipitationandnutrientswithinawatershed.Therefore,thelossofforestbiomassreducesevapotranspirationandincreasestheyieldofwaterandnutrients,althoughsuchchangeshavenotbeenwellquantifiedinColorado.ReducedevapotranspirationandgreaterwateryieldmayincreaseweatheringratesandparticulateexportinwatershedsaffectedbyMPB.Concentrationsofnutrientsandparticulatesaffectthedistributionandabundanceofaquaticorganisms,includingalgae,aquaticinvertebrates,andfish.Increasednutrientconcentrationsalsoaffectthegrowthofalgaeinlakesandreservoirsthatareusedaswatersupplies.Thus,changesintheexportofnutrientsandsedimentfromforeststostreamscancauseproblemsforwaterusers(e.g.,throughincreasedtreatmentcosts)andcanalterthefunctionofaquaticecosystems(e.g.,throughchangesinfoodwebstructure).Inareaswherepesticides(e.g.,carbamatesorpyrethroids)areappliedtocontrolMPBpopulations,runoffintostreamsmayresultinfurtherchangesinwaterquality.

ProposedWork: Becausewaterchemistryinstreamsreflectsmultipleprocesses,includingpatternsofatmosphericdeposition,mineralweathering,nutrientuptake,andhumanperturbations,understandingtheeffectsofMPBonwaterchemistryisparticularlycomplicatedinwatershedswithsubstantialhumaninfluence.Weproposetocapturetwo“snapshots”ofwaterqualityacrossRockyMountainNationalPark,whichincludeswatershedsspanningthefullrangeofdamagebyMPBandalsoisfreeofmanyofthehumaninfluencesthatcouldconfoundananalysisoftheeffectsofMPBonwaterchemistry.Thesnapshotwillconsistofasetof~160watersamplescollectedonasingledate,duringthemiddleofthegrowingseason(midAugust).Asecondsnapshotwillbeconductedduringsnowmeltrunoff(~80samples;spring2010)onasubsetofthelocationssampledin2009.SamplesforpesticideanalysisalsowillbecollectedfromstreamsinareaswheretreesarebeingsprayedforMPB(e.g.,inholdingsinMoraineParkandWildBasin).Thesurveys,incombinationwithGISanalyses(e.g.,usingmapsoftreemortalityfromU.S.ForestServiceaerialsurveys)willprovideinformationonspatialandtemporalpatternsofwaterchemistryinwatershedsaffectedtovaryingdegreesbyMPB.

Progress/Results: WithhelpfromNationalParkServicepersonnelandvolunteers,wecollectedwatersamplesandfielddatafromover200locationsinandaroundRockyMountainNationalParkon18August2009.Thesamplinglocationsincludedwatershedsaffectedtovaryingdegreesbymountainpinebeetle;forexample,theupperCachelaPoudrewatershedisrelativelyunaffectedbypinebeetles,theNorthSt.Vrainwatershedismoderatelyaffected,andtheNorthInletwatershedhassufferedwidespreadtreemortalityduetomountainpinebeetle.

WatersampleshavebeenanalyzedforpH,specificconductance,anions(nitrate,nitrite,sulfate,chloride),cations(calcium,magnesium,sodium,potassium,ammonia),dissolvedorganiccarbon,dissolvedorganicN,particulateN,particulateC,totaldissolvedphosphorus,particulateP,andabsorbancespectra(UV,visible).Asetofphotoswas

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takenateachlocationandtheseimagesarenowbeinganalyzed(e.g.,forestimationofconiferhealthatthesamplinglocations).Relevantdatalayers(e.g.,elevation,vegetationcover,treemortality)forthesamplingareahavebeenassembledandGISanalysesareinprogress.Dataanalysisforthe2009samplingwillbecompletedinearlyspring.

Althoughdataanalysesforthe2009samplingarenotyetcomplete,preliminaryanalyseshaveshownthattheeffectsofmountainpinebeetleonnutrientchemistryinstreamsofRockyMountainNationalParkhavebeenmodestincomparisonwithsomeotherexamplesofforestdisturbance(e.g.,clearcutting).Mountainpinebeetlemaysignificantlyincreasenutrientconcentrationsinsomelakesandreservoirs,inthatthechangescouldresultinmeasurablechangesinphytoplanktongrowthorwaterclarity,butitdoesnotappearthatsuchchangeswillbedramatic(exceptpossiblyinthecaseofwidespreadfire).

Basedontheresultsofsamplingin2009andinformationonpesticideapplications(providedbytheNationalParkService),asubsetoftheinitialsamplinglocationswillbesampledrepeatedlyin2010.Asin2009,watersampleswillbeanalyzedforfractionsofnitrogen,phosphorus,andcarboninordertofurtherevaluatetheeffectsofmountainpinebeetleonexportofnutrientsinstreamwater.Thesesamplesalsowillbeanalyzedforcarbamates.Samplingmultipledatesateachlocationmaybenecessaryfordetectionofpesticidesinstreamwater(ifpresentabovedetectionlimits)sincetimingofthemovementofpesticidesisuncertain.Repeatedsamplingalsowillprovidebetterestimatesofnutrientloading(i.e.,toreservoirsusedaswatersupplies)thanispossiblewithasinglesamplingdate.

Presentations: None.(NOTE:Severalin2010)

Publications: None.(NOTE:Comingin2010)

Partners/Stakeholders NationalParkService(RockyMountainNationalPark),water‐managementagencies(e.g.,NorthernColoradoWaterConservancyDistrict),localmunicipalities,andwaterusers

EmergingInitiativesandAdaptationStrategiestoInformClimateServices(formerlyClimateAdaptationandtheAdaptation‐MitigationNexus)

Table3.

ProjectTitle: ADroughtImpactandVulnerabilityIndicatorSuite

PrimaryInvestigator(s): W.Travis,L.Dilling,R.Klein,K.Gangwer

Contributors: A.Ray

Summary: AkeyneedidentifiedbyNOAA’sscienceadvisoryboard(SocialScienceWorkingGroup,2009)isimprovedmeasuresofsocio‐economicimpactsandbetterindicatorsofsocietalvulnerabilitytoatmospherichazardssothatNOAAcanmeasureoutcomesofitsprogramsandtargetneeds.Whilewearegettinggoodatmeasuring,evenforecasting,thephysicalstateoftheweatherandclimate,weoperatewithonlythemostrudimentarymeasuresofsocialimpactsandvulnerabilities.But,astheNRCPanelonStrategiesandMethodsforClimate‐RelatedDecisionSupport(2009)justconcluded,decisionsupportrequiresdevelopmentofboththetoolsfordecision‐makingandtheinformationonwhichtoapplythosetools.Theyhighlighttheproblemofmeasuringhazardlossandvulnerability(pp.4‐3,4),andtheyrecognizethat“Researchisneededtodevelopindicatorsofadaptivecapacitythatcanaddressthediversityoftypesofdisruptiveevents;assesseffectsbyregion,sector,humanactivity,andtimescale;incorporateassessmentsofcopingcapacity(e.g.,emergencypreparednessandresponsesystems,insurancesystems,disasterreliefcapabilities);andconsiderdiversetypesofimpacts(e.g.,onlifeandhealth,economicsystems,businessorganizations,governments,andcommunities.”(p.4‐12).TheylaudtheRISAsforfocusingoninformationrelevanttoregionsandkeysectors.Thisprojectwouldadvancethesegoalsbydevelopingkeyindicatorsofdroughtandotherclimate‐relatedvulnerabilityintheWWAresearchareaatappropriatescales.Vulnerabilityassessmentrequiresbothphysicalandsocialdata,whichtogethercanrevealsensitivitiesandtrends,andindicatewhereclimate‐relatedresourcescouldbebesttargetedforreducingvulnerability.Wehavebasicclimatologicalandwaterresourcesmeasures(e.g.,snowpack,streamflow,reservoirstoragelevels,andwaterdeliveries).Andthoughsomeinstitutionswithprovendroughtvulnerabilitiessuchasmunicipalwaterutilitieshavedevelopedandroutinelyapplytheirownvulnerabilityandimpactindicators(e.g.,supply/demandratios),muchofwhatweknowaboutthesocietalimpactsofdroughtimpactscomesfromanecdotalandmediaaccounts.

ProposedWork: CanvasstheWWAteamtoassessmeasuresalreadyemployed,rejected,orattempted,andtobuildatargetlistofindicatorsbasedonpreviousworkandcontactwithstakeholders.Thendevelop,collectandrefineasuiteofquantitativeindicatorsthatrevealthetype,magnitude,andnetimpactsinkeysectors,especiallyurbanwater,

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agriculture,ecosystems,recreation,andthegeneraleconomy,forthegeographicareaservedbytheWWA.Startwithbroaderindicators,andextendthesemeasuresbackatleasttothe1976‐77drought(andbeforeifdataofadequatequalitycanbelocated),testthemwiththeWWAteamandselectedstakeholders.Ineachcasewemustevaluatequality,availability,andusefulness.

Progress/Results: DuringAugust‐December,2009,wedevelopedarosterofdroughtindicatorsandtestedseveralforColoradoandthethree‐state(Colorado‐Wyoming‐Utah)region.

Agricultural:

Cropyields(depression;butconfoundingfactors)

Plantedvs.harvestedacres(%abandoned)

Livestockinventories

Agincome

AgriculturalDisasterdeclarations

Cropinsurance

WaterSupplyandEcological:

Declaredwatershortagesindeliveries

Formalurbanwateruserestrictions(“FourthofJulyIndex”)

Otherdrought“emergency”and“disaster”declarations(e.g.,FEMAPresidentialDisasters;localemergencies‐‐‐e.g.,AtlantaandAustin)

Wildfireindices(#,area,costs)

GangwerattendedtheWWAclimateworkshopinGlenwoodSpringstobecomefamiliarwithWWApresentationsandusergroups,andwepresentedinitialresultsfortheaboveindicatorstotheWWAteamonDec.3forfeedback.Ourdatagathering,discussionswithagencies,andfeedbackfromtheWWAteamcausedustofocusontheagriculturalproductionandcropinsurancemeasures,andindicatorsofdeclaredsupplyshortages,andtoexploreuseofdroughtintensitymeasures(e.g.,PDSI)forimpactsnormalization.

Presentations: December3,2009,WWAteammeeting,“CanWeMeasureDroughtVulnerabilityOverTime?”BillTravisandKristinGangwer.

Forthcoming:April15,2010,AAGAnnualMeeting,“AssessingDroughtImpactsandVulnerabilityintheUSIntermountainWest.”KristinGangwerandBillTravis.

Partners/Stakeholders NIDIS;nationalclimateservice;state,regional,andlocalunitswhomanagedrought,planfuturewaterresources,andthinkaboutclimatechangeadaptation

ProjectTitle: EvaluatingtheUtilityofanUncertaintyFrameworkforRegionalClimateInformation

PrimaryInvestigator(s): K.Averyt

Contributors: R.Webb

Summary: Lackofknowledgeregardinguncertaintyassociatedwithclimatemodelsandprojectionscanhinderdecision‐makersfromimplementingclimateadaptationstrategies.Aformalizedscientificuncertaintyrubricmayproveavaluabletoolforthoseusingclimateinformationforregionaladaptationplanning.TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)usesstandarduncertaintyterminologytoconveydegreesofscientificuncertaintytointernationalpolicymakers;bothquantitative,probabilisticassessments(verylikely(>90%),likely(>66%),etc.)andmoresubjectiveconfidenceassessments(highconfidence,etc.)areusedbythedifferentIPCCWorkingGroups.Thisterminologyhasbecomeanintegralpartoftheinternationalsciencepolicyvernacular.TheUSGlobalClimateResearchProgramadoptedsimilarterminologyforitsScientificAssessmentProducts(SAP).However,thedifferentSAPdocumentsuseddifferentlikelihoodexpressions.Thelackofhomogeneitycomplicatesthecommunicationofscientificuncertaintyinsupportofregionaladaptationplanning,asregionalclimatesynthesescullstatementsfromdifferentsourcesincludingtheIPCCAssessmentReportsandUSGCRPSAPs.

Forexample,incraftingtheColoradoClimateReport,adocumentdevelopedbytheWesternWaterAssessment

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(WWA)tosupportadaptationplanningforwatermanagers,statementsincorporatinguncertaintylanguagewereculledfrommanyIPCCandSAPReports.AlthoughquotingIPCCandSAPstatementscontaininguncertaintyterminologyprovedusefultotheColoradoReportaudience,therewasnomechanismfortheWWAtoapply“likelihood”and“confidence”terminologiestothestate‐specificstudiesnotincludedininternationalandnationalassessments.DevelopingaregionaluncertaintyframeworkfortheColoradoReportwasnotpracticalgiventheshorttimelinefordevelopingthereportandthesmallteamofscientistsworkingontheproject(relativetotheIPCC).

ProposedWork: Weproposedevelopingaprocessforaddressinguncertaintyinregionalclimateissues.Thefirstpartofthiseffortwillbeanassessmentofhowuncertaintyiscurrentlybeinghandledonregionalscales.ThesecondpartwillbeanefforttoleveragethestakeholderrelationshipsdevelopedthroughtheCross‐RISAReconcilingColoradoRiverFlowsprojecttodevelopabest‐practicesframeworkforcommunicatingregionaluncertainty.Infutureyears,wehopetotestthisframeworkandevaluateitsutilitythroughRISApartners.

Wehopetobroachthefollowingresearchquestions:Isanuncertaintyindexnecessary?WouldanuncertaintyindexbasedontheIPCCandUSGCRPmodelstailoredtoregionalclimateissuesbevaluabletousers?Likelihoodorconfidence—whichismoreusefulforadaptation?Atwhatpointdoesauserdecidethataclimateprojectionactionable?Willoneframeworkworkforall?Orcanatypologyapproachbeusedtoguideuncertaintyissues?

Progress/Results: Forthisproject,IworkedwiththeNOAANear‐TermOpportunities(NTO)Teamtocompilethemajorinternational,federal,regional,state,andlocaldocumentsandinitiativesgearedtowardassessmentofclimate.Imaintainedawebsitewithlinkstothesedocumentsat:http://wwa.colorado.edu/assessments/assessments_lists.html.Isummarizedtheprocessusedtogenerateseveralofthereports,whichbecamepartofalargerreportbytheNTOTeam.Asadirectresultofevaluatingthemyriadapproachestoassessment,IbecameinterestedinthescientificcapacitytogenerateusablescienceandhaveapaperinpressinBAMSfocusedonthisissue.

Thisprojectrapidlybecameenvelopedinthefollow‐uptotheColoradoClimateReport,inthatwebegantoexploreconnectionsbetweenreducinguncertaintyandclimateliteracy.(SeeClimateRoadshowformoredetails).

Presentations: Averyt,K.B.,J.Lowrey,J.MartinandB.Udall(2009)AnUncertaintyFrameworkforRegionalClimateAssessments?ClimatePredictionApplicationsScienceWorkshop,Norman,Oklahoma.http://climate.ok.gov/cpasw/presentations.php

Averyt,K.B.(2009)WhytheScientificCultureImpedesProgressTowardClimateAdaptation.WaterintheWestPanel,AMS.

Publications: SummaryofAssessments(seehttp://wwa.colorado.edu/assessments/assessments_lists.html)

K.Averyt(InPress)AreWeSuccessfullyAdaptingSciencetoClimateChange?,BulletinoftheAmericanMeteorologicalSociety.

Partners/Stakeholders NOAA

ProjectTitle: Energy‐Water‐ClimateNexus:DevelopinganEnergy‐WaterDecisionSupportToolsfortheColoradoRiverBasin

PrimaryInvestigator(s): K.Averyt,R.Pulwarty,D.Kenney

Contributors: R.Wilkinson

CoreFunding: NOAACPO,WWA,NIDISFUNDING2009:JAN–DEC

Summary: Thereisagrowingrecognitionoftheinterconnectednessofenergydemandandwaterresources.Energydevelopmentrequireswater,andmovingandtreatingwaterconsumesenergy.Theseandrelatedconnectionscreatenovelchallengesinmanagementandofferopportunitiestocraftsolutionswithmultiple,cross‐sectorbenefits.

Energyproductionaccountsforroughly40%ofannualfreshwaterwithdrawalsinColorado,whiledomesticwithdrawalsareonly3%.Waterdemandisprojectedtoincreasesignificantlyascallsfor“energyindependence”arelikelytorevitalizewater‐intensiveprocessesneededforenergyproductionsuchascoalandmineral(e.g.uranium)mining,nuclearpower,coal‐firedpower,oilshaleextraction,amongothers.Farmingforbiofuels,hydropower,andotherrenewableenergytechnologiesalsoposechallenges.Forexample,waterconsumptionbydedicatedenergycropsforbiofuelproductioncanexceed265,000gallonsofwaterperMWhofpowergenerated(R.Wilkinson,pers.com.).Similarly,waterresourcesmanagementconsumessignificantquantitiesofenergybecausewaterisheavy,somovingituphillisenergyintensive.Energyisanintegralcomponentofseveralfacetsofwatermanagement,justaswaterisintegratedintotheenergysector.Thechangingenergyeconomyand

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watermanagementarefurthercomplicatedbyColorado’schangingclimateandpopulationgrowth.Thesewillaltersupplyanddemandpatterns,thuschallengingwatermanagementinmanywaysandoverwhelmingthefinancialcapabilityofenergyandwaterutilitiestopursueadaptationstrategies.

ProposedWork: Researchconnectingenergy,water,andclimateisremarkablyscarce,despitecallsfromresourcemanagersandpublicpolicyofficialsfordatathatwillinformplanning.Theteamofresearchersandprogramsorganizedinthisprojectarewellestablishedineachofthesethreesubstantiveareas(energy,waterandclimate),andadditionally,haveademonstratedrecordofexploringandcementingcross‐sectorandcross‐disciplinarylinkages.AmeetingofthosecurrentlyworkingontheseissueswillallowtheWWAteamto(1)examinethemanywaysinwhichthesesectorsinteract,highlightingdangersandopportunities;(2)developcollaborativeprogramsbuildinguponcurrentresearchandmodelingatNOAA,NREL,NCARandCUthroughdiscussionwithstakeholders,managers,andplanners;(3)identifypolicyandmanagementpathwaysthatoffersolutionsthatdomorethantransferproblemsamongsectors.Subsequently,asignificantstakeholderengagementinitiativewillbedeveloped.

Progress/Results: Thepastyearhasbeenasuccessfulnegotiationofbuildingnetworkcapacityandestablishinglegitimacyinthescienceoftheenergy‐water‐climatenexus.BuildinguponthemodeldevelopedatUniversityofCaliforniaSantaBarbara(seeKelleretal.,2010),wetestedthemodelinColoradoRiverBasin.Specifically,wecomparedthewaterconsumptionassociatedwithcurrentlyoperationalcoal‐firedpowerplantswithdatareportedfromtheenergysector.Wethencomparedwaterconsumptionassociatedwithbothcoal‐firedpowerplants(generating8000MW)andconcentratedsolarthermalplants(alsogenerating8000MW)slatedforconstructionthatwouldbedrawingwaterfromresourcesderivedfromtheColoradoRiver.TheresultssuggestthatCSPwouldconsumelesswaterthancoal‐firedplantsbecauseofthetypesoftechnologiesintendedtobeusedatspecificplants.However,throughthiswork,wehaveidentifiedothergroupswithsimilarwaterforenergymodels,andtheirdataarenotthesameasours.Inordertomoveforwardwiththiswork,weneedtoreconcilethedifferentmodelsanddevelopthebestpossiblelifecycleanalysisfordifferentenergyproducingtechnologies.Thishasemergedasapriority,aswecannotmoveforwardwiththisworkuntilthisoccurs.Tothisend,wewillbeholdingalargeworkshopin2010inanattempttocoordinateonthebestpracticesforevaluatingwaterforenergyanalysis.

Presentations: KAveryt:SolarThermal&Coal‐FiredPowerPlants:ConsequencesfortheWesternUSandColoradoRiverBasin,RenewableEnergyintheSouthwest:ConcentratedSolarandBeyond,Tucson,AZ(October2009)

Partners/Stakeholders NIDIS,NREL,CURASEI,UnionofConcernedScientists,ElectricPowerResearchInstitute

ProjectTitle: Energy‐Water‐ClimateNexusintheWesternUS

PrimaryInvestigator(s): D.Kenney,K.Averyt

Contributors: R.Pulwarty

CoreFunding: UniversityofColoradoEnergyInstitute;WWA

Summary: Thereisagrowingrecognitionoftheinterconnectednessofenergydemandandwaterresources.Energydevelopmentrequireswater,andmovingandtreatingwaterconsumesenergy.Theseandrelatedconnectionscreatenovelchallengesinmanagementandofferopportunitiestocraftsolutionswithmultiple,cross‐sectorbenefits.

ProposedWork: Weintendtoproduce(aseditors)abookofcontributedpapersthatreviewvariouselementsofwater‐energy‐climateconnectionsintheAmericanWest.Anoutlinehasnotyetbeendeveloped,butitwilllikelyfeatureamixofcasestudiesandthematicchapters,highlightingbothproblemsandopportunitiesassociatedwiththisnexus.Already,wehaveafirmcommitmenttopublish(availableuponrequest)fromEdwardElgarPublishing(amajorglobalacademicpublisherthatpublishedDoug’s“InSearchofSustainableWaterManagement”in2005)(http://www.e‐elgar.co.uk/index.lasso),andhavereceivedencouragementfromseveralpotentialcollaborators(e.g.,RobertWilkinsonofUCSB).Althoughabookisthetangibleproductofthiseffort,itstruevalueisastheskeletonuponwhichwewillbuildanetworkofleadingresearchersandpolicy‐makersactiveinthisfield.Similarly,thiselementoftheprojectshouldlenditselftoadditionalfundraisingactivitiesByhavingaready‐madepublishingoutletavailabletopotentialcontributors,wearehopingtojumpstartournetworkingefforts,andthus,buildastrongfoundationforthissubstantiveelementwithinWWA.Averyt’sColoradocasestudy(describedelsewhere)willbeonechapterinthiseffort;itislikelythatDougwillneedtoauthoranintroductionand/orconcludingchapteraswell,andperhapsevenafocusedsubstantivechapter(subjectTBD),basedonhowtheoutlinecomestogether.

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Progress/Results: Thelast6monthshavebeenextremelybusy.Themainactivitiesoverthepast6monthshaveinvolvednetworkbuilding.Thishastakenseveralforms.FirstwasattendanceinOctoberoftheconferenceinTucsonentitled:“WaterandLandforRenewableEnergyintheSouthwest”hostedbySouthwestHydrology,focusedlargelyonthechallengesofconcentratedsolar.ThiswasfollowedinNovemberbyparticipationinaninvitation‐onlyscopingmeetingoftheUnionofConcernedScientists(UCS)onthe“energy‐watercollision,”whichincludedadiscussionofthepotentialroleofUCSinwesternUSwater‐energyprojects.Alsoduringthistime,Iparticipated,asanAffiliateintheCURenewableandSustainableEnergyInstitute(RASEI),ineffortstobuildanetworkofwater‐energyresearchersinColorado,includingbothuniversity‐basedandfederallabprojects.Also,asateammemberoftheCarpeDiemproject(ofExloco),Ihavehelpedorganizeawater‐energymeetingthatwilloccursooninSanFrancisco.Morerecently,IhavemetwithofficialsattheWesternGovernors’AssociationaboutwaystointegratetheirnewworkonenergygenerationsitingandtransmissionwithothereffortsthroughouttheWest.Ineachoftheseefforts,IhavebeenabletointroducepartnerstoWWAresearchandresearchers.Usingthesenetworks,two“callforpapers”haverecentlybeendistributed(toroughly200individualsandgroups)regardingthebookproject.Proposalsarecurrentlybeingevaluated.

Deliverables: Progresstowardsdevelopmentofenergy‐waterbook,includingdetailedoutlineandidentificationofauthorsandcontributors

Presentations: None.(NOTE:Severalin2010)

Publications: None.(NOTE:BookChapterpreparationin2010)

Partners/Stakeholders UniversityofColoradoRASEI,NREL

ProjectTitle: JointFrontRangeClimateChangeVulnerabilityStudy

PrimaryInvestigator(s): D.Yates,B.Udall,J.Barsugli

Contributors: K.Averyt,A.Ray

CoreFunding: AmericanWaterWorksAssociationResearchFoundationFUNDING2009:JAN–DEC

Summary: ThisprojectinvolvesseveralFrontRangewaterprovidersworkingtogethertostudythepotentialimpactsofclimatechangeonwaterresourcesinColorado.TheteamwilluseavarietyofdownscaledGCMprojectionsintwodifferenthydrologymodelstoidentifystreamflowchangesin2040and2070.WWAisservingonaninternaladvisorycommitteetoprovideguidanceonchoosingGCMsandemissionsscenariosalongwithclimatevariablesanddatasetstoputintothehydrologymodels.Inaddition,WWAorganizedaneducationworkshopforthewaterprovidersthatcoveredthefundamentalsanddifferencesofGCMs,emissionsscenarios,downscalingtechniques,andhydrologymodeling.Oncefuturestreamflowsareobtained,WWAwillprovideguidanceonplanningforandcommunicationofresults.

ProposedWork: Aftermodelsarecompletedandcalibrated,theconsultantswillusedownscaledclimatechangeprojectionstocreateaseriesoffuturestreamflowsforseveralpointsineachbasin.Thewaterproviderswillusethesestreamflowprojectionstoassesthepotentialvulnerabilityoftheirwatersuppliestoclimatechange.WWAwillcontinuetosupportthisstudywithclimateeducationandguidanceabouttranslatingcomplexclimateinformationtogoverningboardsandcommunities.

Progress/Results: Thestudynearscompletion(March2010).TheFinalDrafthadcompletedreview,andrevisionsarebeingmade.J.BarsugliparticipatedinmostoftheFrontRangegroup’smonthlymeetings,providedadditionalechnicalguidancethroughinformalcontactwithL.KaatzofDenver,extensivelyreviewedanearlydraftandsubmittedcommentsonthefinaldraft.Inaddition,interactionwithL.KaatzontheWUCAwhitepaperonclimatemodels(above)alsohelpedtoinformtheuseofclimatemodelinformationforthisproject,

Presentations: Twopresentations(above)totheJFRCCVS.PresentationontheFRCCVSbyLaurnaKaatzatAGU.

Publications: FinalReportinRevision(March2010)

ProjectTitle: ColoradoClimateRoadshow:DevelopingaFrameworkforIdentifyingImpactsandVulnerabilitiestoClimateinSupportofAdaptation

PrimaryInvestigator(s): K.Averyt,J.Lukas,C.Alvord,J.Barsugli,N.Doesken

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Contributors: M.Shafer,C.McNuttFUNDING2009:JULY–DEC

CoreFunding: CWCB,WWA

Summary: In2008,WWAresearchersledamajorresearchinitiativeinColoradofocusedonthephysicalaspectsofclimatechangeandvariabilityinthestate.Theresultingpublication(ClimateChangeinColorado)waswellreceivedandhasprovenalandmarkdocumentfordecision‐makersacrossthestate.Inresponse,WWAhasbeenworkingtheCWCBtodevelopa“ColoradoClimateReportRoadshow.”Further,theinitialworkonthereporthassetthestageforasecondphasetothisendeavorthatwillfocusonthevulnerabilitiestotheimpactsofclimatechange.

ProposedWork: TheColoradoClimateRoadshowwillbecomprisedofseveralmodularactivities.Thesewillincludethefollowinggeneralcomponents:“Climate101”,“ClimateinColorado”,and“HowamIVulnerable?”TheClimate101modulewillbebasedontheNOAA‐fundedClimate101WorkshopsdevelopedandimplementedinOklahomabySCCIP.BarsugliandDoeskenwillbeworkingwithSCCIPtotailortheworkshoptoColorado’suniqueaudience.TheClimateinColoradosectionwillbeapresentationontheresultsoftheColoradoClimateReport.Thiscomponentisintendedtomakeglobalclimatechangeamoresalientconcept.Lastly,wehopetoworkwithstakeholderstoaddressthequestion“WhydoesClimateMattertoMe?”Thissectionwillfocusondroughtinthestate,andisintendedtoenabledialoguesacrossmanycommunities.Thiscomponentwillserveasascopingmechanismforphase2oftheColoradoClimateReportbybringingintofocusthedifferentvulnerabilitiesofdifferentsectorsindiverseregionsofColorado.Therewillbeanevaluationcomponenttothiswork.Inaddition,weintendtotransferthelessonslearnedheretoUtah,andtherebyperpetuatethelessonslearnedbyimprovingtheRoadshowmodel.

Progress/Results: Afterinitialtesting,werealizedthattheOklahomaClimate101modulewouldnotbesufficientfortheneedsofthoseinColorado.Consequently,were‐visitedourapproachandre‐developedmuchofthematerialnecessaryfortheworkshop,althoughwedidconsultourcolleaguesatSCCIPandatCLIMASforinputintoourevaluationtoolandpowerpointcontent.

TheWesternWaterAssessment(WWA),inconjunctionwiththeColoradoWaterConservationBoard(CWCB),presentedthe“DealingwithDrought–AdaptingtoaChangingClimate”workshopseriesduringOctober2009inthreelocationsaroundColorado:CastleRock,GlenwoodSprings,andDurango.TheseworkshopsbuiltonthemesandinformationfromboththeClimateChangeinColoradoReportandtheOctober2008ColoradoGovernor’sConferenceonManagingDroughtandClimateRisk.TheWWA,CWCB,andtheNationalIntegratedDroughtInformationSystem(NIDIS),alongwiththeColoradoStateUniversityColoradoClimateCenter(CCC)andtheMountainStudiesInstitutesponsoredthisseriesofworkshops.The80participantsrepresenteddiversesectorsandinterestsaffectedbydroughtandclimate,includingwaterresourcemanagement,agriculture,land‐useplanning,forest&rangemanagement,watershedprotection,environmentalorganizations,andtourism&recreation.Collectively,theparticipants’decision‐makingaffectsnaturalresourcesineveryriverbasininColorado.

Theprimaryobjectivesoftheseworkshopsweretoimprovetheclimateliteracyoftheparticipants,provideinputintotheongoingupdateofthestateDroughtplan,documentparticipants’understandingofclimatechangeinColorado,andaddressconcernsandquestionsamongthisgroupofstakeholdersaboutclimatechange.Theworkshopobjectiveswereachievedthroughpre‐andpost‐workshopevaluations,instructionalpresentations,breakoutdiscussions,andthedistributionofclimateanddroughtinformationinprintedform.Analysisoftheworkshopevaluationsandnotesfrombreakoutsessionsanddiscussionsyieldedthefollowinginformation:

ParticipantsexpressedanunderstandingthatclimateischangingandwillaffectColoradointhepre‐workshopsurveysandindiscussionsduringtheworkshop;however,theyareunclearabouttheroleclimateinformationplaysindecision‐making.Inallthreeworkshops,theparticipants,asagroup,wereabletoreplicatethediverselistofclimatechangeimpactsthatscientistshavealsoidentifiedaspossibilities.However,mostparticipantsindicatedthattheydidnotknowwheretofindclimateinformation,theydidnotknowwhatinformationtheyneeded,ortheydidnotknowhowtouseit.

Thesuiteofresponsestopre‐workshopevaluationquestionsindicatesalackofunderstandingofatleastsomeofthefundamentalsofclimate.Itisworthfurtherworktodeterminewhetherincompleteunderstandingofthefundamentalsofclimateinhibitsactionbythedecision‐makersattendingtheworkshops.

Comparisonofthepre‐andpost‐workshopevaluationresponsessuggestthattheparticipantsvalueclimateinformationspecifictoColoradobutdonotknowwheretofindtheseresources.Inthepre‐workshopevaluation,thosewhoindicatedthattheyuseclimateinformationindecision‐makingprimarilyaccessthatinformationfromfederalorstate‐supportedsources.Afollow‐upquestiononspecificsourcesfoundthatonlytheNationalWeatherServiceandtheNOAAClimatePredictionCenterresourceswereconsultedregularlybyamajorityofparticipants.

Theclimateliteracyofparticipantsimprovedaftertheworkshop.Perhapsrelatedtotheimprovementintheclimateliteracyscores,85%ofparticipantsindicatedinthepost‐workshopevaluationthattheywouldbe“somewhatmorelikely”or“morelikely”touseclimateinformationtoinformresourcemanagementandplanningafterhavingparticipatedintheworkshop;15%saidtheywouldnotchangetheiruseofclimate

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informationcomparedwithbeforethemeeting.

ThegreatestincreaseinperceivedutilityofclimateinformationforplanningpurposeswasforENSOinformationandprecipitationforecasts.Althoughsomeparticipantsindicatedthattheywouldbemorelikelytousereservoirstorageandinflowinformationaftertheworkshop,thepost‐workshopincreaseinparticipants’attitudesabouttheusefulnessoftheseclimateindicatorswaslessthanwhatwasindicatedforotherobservationsandforecasts.

Whenaskedtoidentifymajorchallengesposedbyclimatechange,participantsmostfrequentlyidentifiedthoseissuesthatwillrequirecross‐sectorcollaborationandplanning.Thechallengespresentedbydroughtidentifiedbyworkshopparticipantsalsotendedinvolvecross‐sectorissues,andsuccessfuladaptationeffortsdevelopedduringthe2000sdroughttendedtoinvolveenhancedtrans‐boundarycommunication.Cooperationacrosssectorswasidentifiedasbothapositiveoutcomeofthe2000’sdrought,butwasalsohighlightedasahurdletoproperlydealingwithchallenges.Ingeneral,positiveexamplestendedtoinvolvelocalcollaboration,whilehurdlestendedtoinvolvedifficultiesatthestateandfederallevels.

Aftertheworkshop,59%ofparticipantsbelievedthattheydidnothavealltheclimateinformationnecessarytomakeawell‐informedplanningdecision.Evenso,therewasanincreasedlikelihoodthatparticipantswilluseclimateinformationindecision‐making,(85%aftertheworkshopsvs.65%before).Giventhatparticipantsfoundmanyofthetools,products,andinformationresourcespresentedduringtheworkshopuseful,itislikelythattheywillbeusingtheseparticularresourcesinthefuture.

Presentations: Workshoppresentations:http://wwa.colorado.edu/climate_change/drought09.html

Averyt,K.,C.Alvord,LAJoyce,JLukas,JJBarsugli,GOwen,andBUdall(2009),DevelopingandEvaluatingWorkshopFrameworkstoImproveClimateLiteracy,EosTrans.AGU,90(52),FallMeet.Suppl.,AbstractU13D‐07

Publications: Averyt,K.,Lukas,J.,Alvord,C.,Barsugli,J.,andDoesken,N.(2009)."The‘DealingwithDrought:AdaptingtoaChangingClimate’Workshops:AReportfortheColoradoWaterConservationBoard."(http://wwa.colorado.edu/current_projects/pdfdocs/deal_drought_wrkshp_report_FINAL.pdf)

Partners/Stakeholders NIDIS

ProjectTitle: StateDroughtPlanningintheWesternU.S.A:Multi‐RISA–Agency–NIDISCollaboration

PrimaryInvestigator(s): A.Steinemann

Contributors: B.Udall,G.M.Garfin,D.Cayan,E.Miles,D.White,M.Finucane

CoreFunding: NOAACPOFUNDING2009:JULY–DEC

Summary: TheRISAprogramsupportseffortsto“improvethelinkbetweenclimatesciencesandsociety”and“provideinformationthatdecisionmakerscanusetocopewithdrought”(NOAA,2009).NIDISisdesignedto“serveasanearlywarningsystemfordrought…providingthoseaffectedwiththebestavailableinformationandtoolstoassessthepotentialimpactsofdrought,andtobetterprepareforandmitigatetheeffectsofdrought”(NIDIS,2007).

Thesegoals,whilemutuallyreinforcing,leadtothequestion:Howcandroughtinformationbeprovidedtodecision‐makers,mosteffectively,inordertoreducedroughteffects?Morespecifically,howcanwemakethelinkbetweendroughtinformation(suchasclimateandhydrologicdataandforecasts)anddroughtaction(suchasresponsesandadaptations)?Apromisingandconcretewayisthroughstatedroughtplans. Droughtplansareviewedasaprimarydefenseagainstdrought.Theideaisthatearlywarning,andtimelyaction,canhelptoreducedroughtimpactsandvulnerability.Droughtplanstypicallyspecifythelinksbetweendroughtinformation(operationalizedasindicatorsandtriggers)andcorrespondingactions.

Whilenearlyallstateshavedroughtplansorprograms,theyvarywidelyintheircontentandperceivedeffectiveness—andintheiruseofdroughtinformation.Further,despitewidespreadrelianceonplanstomanagedrought,littlepriorworkhasevaluatedtheseplans,theirdevelopment,andhowearlywarningsystemscouldbeusedtoreducedroughthazards.

Recentwork(e.g.,Steinemann,2006;Steinemannetal.2005)hasidentifiedaneedforimproveddroughtinformationforstatedroughtpreparednessandresponse.Inparticular,asurveyofstatedroughtmanagersinallWesternGovernors’Associationstates(Fontaineetal.,2009)foundthatmoststateslack—butwant—“betterdata”(e.g.,morespecific,reliable,andconsolidated)and“betterguidance”for(a)assessingandpredictingdrought;(b)developingandevaluatingindicatorsandtriggers;(c)monitoringdroughtconditionswithintheirstate,andregionally;(d)justifyingdroughtactions,bothshorttermresponsesandlongertermadaptations;and(e)evaluatingdroughtplans,anddroughtinformationusedbythoseplans.Notably,thesestatedroughtmanagersalsoexpressedinterestandwillingnesstoparticipateinfollow‐updiscussionsandcollaborations—and

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eachwillbeinvolvedinthisproposedproject.

Toaddresstheseopportunitiesandneeds,ourprojectwillinvestigate,evaluate,andseektoimprovetheintegrationandvalueofdroughtinformationforreducingdroughthazardsthroughstatedroughtplanninganddecision‐making.Forinstance,droughtinformation(fromRISAsandpartners)canbelinkedtodroughtindicatorsandtriggers,whichcanthenbelinkedtodroughtactions.

Ouractivities(detailedbelow)willincludecollaborationsamongtheRISAs,NIDIS,NDMC,WRCC,otherpartners,andstatewatermanagersintheWGA,throughseveralfora,includingworkshops,focusgroups,andindividualinteractions.

(1)Howcanclimateinformation,suchasthatprovidedbyRISAs,beintegratedintodroughtplansandstatedroughtdecision‐making?Whatarethepotentialandvaluableapplicationsofthatinformation,andhowwouldthatvaluebeassessed?

(2)Howcanearlywarningsystems,suchasthatbeingdevelopedbyNIDIS,helptoreducedroughtimpactsandvulnerability?Whatdroughtinformationwillprovidetheneededbasistotakeactions,bothshorter‐termresponsesandlonger‐termadaptations?

(3)Howcanstatedroughtplansandplanningactivitiestakeadvantageofclimateandotherdroughtinformation?Forinstance,howcandroughtinformation(e.g.,nowcastsandforecasts)betranslatedintodroughtindicatorsandtriggers?Moregenerally,howcandroughtplans,andtheinformationtheyuse,beevaluatedandimproved?

ProposedWork: OurworkwillbringtogetherthewesternRISAs,agencypartners(includingNIDIS,NDMC,andWRCC),andWGAstatedroughtdecision‐makers,aswellasotheragenciesandstakeholdersidentifiedbythecoregroup.Wewillconductgroupmeetingsandaworkshop(throughteleconferencesandweb‐basedtechniques)tounderstanduserneedsfordroughtdecision‐makingandthepotentialofclimateanddroughtinformation.Whilethespecifictimingandtypesofmeetingsmayevolve,weexpecttoholdearlygroupmeetingswiththeRISAs,partners,andwatermanagers;conductindividualinterviewswitheachstatedroughtmanagerintheWGAstates;thenconvenetheRISAs,partners,watermanagers,andotheridentifiedstakeholdersforaDroughtWorkshop.Togainadeeperunderstandingofdroughtissuesandstakeholderneedsineachstate,beforetheworkshop,thePIwillintervieweachoftheWGAstatedroughtmanagers,usingasurveyinstrument(withinputfromRISAsandpartners),toexplorethefollowingdimensions,amongothers,whichwillalsobeexploredinourworkshops:

*Useofdroughtinformation:Towhatextentdostatesincorporatedroughtinformation,suchasthatdevelopedbytheRISAsandpartners,intotheirdroughtplansandprograms?Whatinformationdotheyuse,andfindmostuseful?Dotheyincorporateclimatechangeandclimatevariabilityintodecision‐making?Whattypesofinformationwouldbeneededandusefulformakingdroughtdecisions?

*Valueofinformation:Howdostatesevaluatetheimportanceofdroughtinformationtohelpprepareforandadapttodrought?Whatarethemetricsofvalue?Whatistheroleofuncertainty?Whattypesofinformationareneededforearlywarning,orforlonger‐termadaptations?Whataretherelativerisksoffalseassurance(forecastofnodrought,butdroughtdevelops)orfalsealarm(forecastofdrought,butnodroughtdevelops)?

*Indicatorsandtriggers:Whichonesarecurrentlyused?Howweretheydeveloped?Whataretheirtemporalscales,spatialscales,andsectoralemphases?Aretheylinkedwithdroughtmanagementgoals?Howcantheyprovideearlywarning?Aretheyevaluated;howdostatesknowiftheywork?

*Responsesandadaptations:Whataretheactionsinthedroughtplan,andhowaretheylinkedwithdroughtinformation?Haveclimateadaptationplansbeenusefulfordroughtadaptation?Whatarethetradeoffsbetweenshort‐termadjustmentsandlong‐termadaptation?Doshort‐termresponsespromoteorimpairtheabilitytoreducelong‐termvulnerability?

*Interstateandintrastatedroughtplanning:Dostatescoordinatewithotherstatesonregionaldroughtplanningactivities?Whatisthepotentialorneedforaninterstateorbasin‐widedroughtplan?Withineachstate,howdoregionalandlocaldroughtplansmeshwithstate‐leveldroughtplans?

*Underservedpopulations:Dostatedroughtplanningactivitiesprovidespecificinteractionswithunderservedgroups,suchastribes?Whataboutareaswithoutequalaccesstoclimateandotherinformation?

*Effectiveness:Howdostatesknowifdroughtinformationandplansareeffective,andwhatarethemetricsof“effectiveness”?Whatconstitutes“preparedness”?

*Lessons:Whatbroaderlessonshavebeenlearned?Whatcaneachstatesharewithotherstates?What’sneeded?

Progress/Results: Workonthisprojecthasbeendelayed.Becausefundingwasallocatedalready,thisprojectwillfallinasa“nocostextension”andresultswillbereportedinsubsequentyears.

Partners/Stakeholders NationalDroughtMitigationCenter,WesternRegionalClimaticCenter,NIDIS

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CoreActivities

TheCoreManagementTeamisalsoresponsibleformaintainingandfulfillingobligationsrelatingtooutreachandeducation,andpromotingcommunicationamongtheRISAsandwithotherfederalpartners.During2009,theWWAcontinueditslong‐standingreputationwithstakeholdersanddecision‐makersasatrustedsourceofclimateinformation.Collectively,WWAresearchersgaveover100publictalksandseminars(AppendixII);werecited,quotedorinterviewedbythemediaover50times(AppendixV);andservedasmembersofmanycommitteesandorganizations(Table4).Inaddition,inourcontinuingeffortstoexpandclimateliteracy,WWAsponsoredseveralworkshopsacrosstheIntermountainWest(Table5).Therearealsoseveralprojectsthatwithinthepurviewofcoremanagementactivities–allofwhicharefocusedonenhancingoutreach,communicationandeducation(Table6).

Table4.2009Organizations,CommitteesandCoordinationActivitieswithWWAMembers

• AmericanBarAssociation,PublicLandsandLandUseCommittee,SectiononNaturalResources,EnergyandEnvironmentalLaw

• AmericanMeteorologicalSociety,ClimateChange&VariabilityCommittee

• AmericanWaterResourcesAssociation

• AssociationofMetropolitanWaterAgencies(AMWA)

• CarpeDiemProject

• CenterforResearchConservation(CRC)• ClimateChangeandWaterWorkingGroup(CCAWG)

• ColoradoDivisionofWildlifeClimateChangeAdvisoryBoard

• ColoradoScientificSociety

• CoordinatedResearchConsortiumfortheColoradoRiverDelta

• DividingtheWatersProject

• EcologicalSocietyofAmerica

• FrontiersinEcologyandEnvironment

• GreaterYellowstoneCoalition• IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)

• JointFrontRangeClimateChangeVulnerabilityStudy

• NationalIntegratedDroughtInformationSystemImplementationTeam

• NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration,Near‐TermObjectivesTeam:ClimateAssessments

• TheNatureConservancy• UnionofConcernedScientists,EnergyandWaterinaWarmingWorldProgram

• UniversityofColorado,RenewableandSustainableEnergyInstitute

• USGlobalChangeResearchProgram(USGCRP)

• WaterAvailabilityTaskForce(WATF)

• WaterResearchFoundation(WRF)

• WaterUtilitiesClimateAlliance(WUCA)

• WesternSnowConference

• WesternStatesWaterCouncil(WSWC)

• WesternGovernors’Association(WGA)

Table5.2009WWA‐SponsoredWorkshops

Title Date Location Details

NIDISClimate,DroughtandEarlyWarningonWesternNativeLands

June9–11,2009GrandTetonNationalPark,WY

http://wwa.colorado.edu/Proposals/2010/Docs/NIDIS_Jackson_Hole_Report_Mar2010.pdf

DealingwithDrought:AdaptingtoaChangingClimate

October13,2009 CastleRock,COhttp://wwa.colorado.edu/climate_change/drought09.html

October16,2009GlenwoodSprings,CO

http://wwa.colorado.edu/climate_change/drought09.html

October22,2009 Durango,COhttp://wwa.colorado.edu/climate_change/drought09.html

USForestServiceWesternWatershedsandClimateChange:WaterandAquaticSystemToolsWorkshop

November17–19,2009 Boulder,COhttp://www.fs.fed.us/rmrs/climate‐change/water‐watersheds/

MakingConnections:PineBeetles,Water,Climate,Fire,andtheFutureForest

December7,2009 Boulder,COhttp://wwa.colorado.edu/ecology/beetle/other.html

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Table6.CoreActivities

ProjectTitle: WWAWebsiteReorganization

PrimaryInvestigator(s): J.Lukas,K.Averyt

Contributors: B.Udall,A.Ray,C.Alvord

CoreFunding: WWA

Summary: ThisprojectwasamajorundertakingbyWWAtoreorganizeitswebsite,andmaketheportalmoreuser‐friendly.Webdevelopmentisaprimaryresearchandoutreachtoolthatcanserveasaclearinghouseofinformation,educationresource,facilitateprojectcollaboration,andfosterpartnershipforawiderangeofusergroups.

ProposedWork: WWAworkedcloselywithaconsultanttoredesignthehomepage,subpages,andhtmlprogrammingneeds.Thenewwebpagecontentandpresentationiscenteredontopicheadingstoappealtoawiderangeofusergroupsandcorrespondingknowledgebase.Topicheadingsinclude:“ColoradoRiver”,“FrontRange”,“WesternHydrology”,“WaterManagementandDrought”,“ClimateVariabilityandChange”,and“ForecastsandOutlooks.”ThenewwebsitewentliveinAugust2008.However,wenowneedtorefinecontenttoreflectournewresearchfoci.

Progress/Results: In2009,inadditiontoroutineupdatingandmaintenance,severalkeyenhancementsweremadetotheWWAwebsite,includingthedevelopmentofdatabasesofWWApublications(http://wwa.colorado.edu/about_us/DBPubs.html)andpresentations(http://wwa.colorado.edu/about_us/present.html)since1999.Workwillcontinuein2010todevelopmorecontenttosupportthenewresearchfoci.The“Tools&Products”sectiondescribedbelowisclosetocompletion.

ProjectTitle: BestPracticesforIdentifyingQualityObservationalDatasets

PrimaryInvestigator(s): N.Doesken,R.Gillies,K.Wolter

Contributors: K.Averyt

CoreFunding: CWCB,WWAFUNDING2009:JAN–DEC

Summary: TheColoradoandUtahstateclimatologistshavedevelopeduniquewebsitesthatusethebestavailabledatatoshowobservedclimatetrends.Thedataareavailableforpublicaccessandmapsandmenusmakeiteasytofindandselectdataforanalysisandgraphing.Datagraphicscanonlybeviewedaftersiteusersarefirstpresentedwithfullaccuratedescriptionsofthehistoryofeachstationincludingstationmovesandobservationalchangesthroughhistorythatcouldaffecttheobservedtrends.

ProposedWork: ThegroupwilldevelopapublicationoffindingsandrecommendationsonbestpracticesfordevelopingandinterpretinghistoricrecordsandtimeseriesanditwillbesubmittedtotheAmericanAssociationofStateClimatologistsonlineJournalofServiceClimatology.ThispaperwillalsodocumentourselectionprocessofthebeststationrecordsinColoradoandUtahinordertofacilitatesimilaranalysesinneighboringstates.

Wewillattempttoextendthistypeofanalysisandproductstoneighboringstates.IfwesucceedinenlargingthescopeofthisprojectbeyondColorado,theWesternRegionalClimateCenterwouldbealogicalnextwebhostforWesternU.S.productsofthistype.ThisfeedsdirectlyintosupportofaNationalClimateService.

Progress/Results: TheColoradoClimateTrendswebsitewaslaunchedduringthefallof2009aftermorethantwoyearsofplanning,preparation,dataanalysisandmetadataassessment.Sofar,feedbackhasbeenpositiveandhasmostlycomefromwatermanagersinColoradowhohaveperusedthesite.Theuniquefeatureofthissiteisitsfocusonmetadata.Usersoftimeseriesdatausuallycaneasilyviewnarrativedescriptionsofstationchangesovertimeandthenseewhat,ifany,impactthosechangeshavehadontimeseriescontinuity.Graphingtoolstoaccompanythesitehavenotyetbeenactivated.Manyofthetimeseries,evenforthebestselectedstations,stillhavesomemissingdatawhichhadthepotentialforfoulinggraphingproducts.OverallfindingsbasedonColoradodataarethattherearenopuretimeserieswithhomogeneousdatafortheentireperiodofrecordgoingback80to120years.Thereareveryfewstationwithidealdatafortimeseriesanalysiseveninthepast40‐50years.Stationmoves,timeofobservationchangesandchangesofinstrumentation(movingfromthetraditionalliquidinglassthermometersincottonregionshelterstoelectronicinstrumentationinplasticradiationshieldsallhavethepotentialforintroducingdiscontinuitiestolongtermdatarecords.Recentcoolweatherduringthelastfewwintersandduringthesummerof2009allhaveprovidedanoticeabledampingtopreviouslyobservedstrongupwardtrendsintemperature.SimilarworkhasnotyetbeencompletedinUtahbutwill

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hopefullybecompletedin2010.Amanuscriptisbeingoutlinedthatwilldescribetheprocessesthathavebeenusedandtheresultsthathavebeenfound.

Presentations: NolanDoeskengaveapresentationatColoradoWaterCongress,January2010meetinginDenverdescribingandshowcasingtheColoradoClimateTrendswebsite.PresentationsattheClimateRoadshow,ajointCWCB,WWA,ColoradoClimateCenterendeavorreferencedclimatetrendsandtheClimateTrendswebsite.BriefreferencestotheColoradoClimateTrendswebsitewereincludedinseveralotherpresentationsduringthepastyearincludingtheSouthPlatteWaterForumandtheArkansasRiverBasinWaterForum

Publications: AshortarticleintheColoradoWaterInstitutenewsletterwaspublisheddescribingtheColoradoClimateTrendswebsiteduringthefallof2009

Partners/Stakeholders NOAA

ProjectTitle: IntermountainWestClimateSummary

PrimaryInvestigator(s): J.Lukas,C.Alvord,K.Averyt,A.Ray,K.Wolter

Contributors: G.Bates,E.Gordon,R.Balaji,J.Barsugli,B.Udall,C.Alvord

CoreFunding: WWAFUNDING2009:JAN–DEC

Summary: TheIntermountainWestClimateSummary(IWCS)providesthelatestclimateinformationinasimplecompactdocumentaimedatmanagers,planners,andpolicymakerswithwater‐relatedinterests.Byimprovingawarenessandunderstandingaboutforecastsaswellasclimatephenomenon,theclimatesummaryhelpsWWAfacilitateadialogamongpotentialusers,researchersandoperationalprovidersofclimateinformationwiththeultimategoalofprovidingenhancedclimateservices.BeginninginMarch2009,theIWCSisreleasedfivetimesperyearandispostedontheWWAwebsite:http://wwa.colorado.edu/IWCS/index.html(IWCSe‐mail:wwasummary@wwa.colorado.edu).

TheIWCSprovidesavaluableservicebyinterpretingandtranslatingclimateinformationandforecastsaswellasincludingtwotypesofsummaryarticles.ThefirstisaFeatureArticle,whichsummarizescurrentclimateandwater‐relatedresearchandaFocusPage,whichdescribesaclimateservice.

ProposedWork: Implementchangestoscheduleandorganizationbasedon2008userevaluation:

‐MakeIWCSentirelywebbased

‐Decreasefrequencyfrom8timesperyearto5timesperyear.

‐Eliminateredundantpages(statewateravailability)andcombineothers(temperature,precipitation,droughtmonitor,StandardizedPrecipitationIndex)tocreatesingle“recentconditions”page

WorkwithKellyRedmondandtheWesternRegionalClimateCentertosubmitTRACSproposaltotheClimateProgramOfficeandtransferthebulkoftheIWCStotheWRCC.WWAwillcontinuetowriteFeaturearticlesandFocuspages,andincludeWWAresearchhighlightstocreateaquarterlyWWAnewsletter.

Progress/Results: Thenewweb‐basedHTMLformatoftheIWCSwasunveiledwiththeMarch2009issue,withastreamlinedandmore‐userfriendlycontentandorganizationasoutlinedabove.Subsequentissuesin2009(April,May,July,October)continuedthisformat,anduserfeedbackregardingthechangehasbeenuniformlypositive.ProductionoftheIWCSnowtakesfarlessWWAstafftimeperissue,withlittle,ifany,lossofoveralleffectivenessinconveyingtimelyandsalientclimateinformation.TheFeatureArticlesandFocusPagescontinuetoaccompanyeachissue,andremaininPDFformatforeaseofprintingandsharing.NearlyallofthesearticlesarewrittenexpresslyfortheIWCS.

Presentations: Lowrey,J.EvaluationoftheIntermountainWestClimateSummary:LessonsforCommunicatingClimateInformation.ClimatePredictionApplicationsScienceWorkshop(CPASW)2009,Norman,OK,March24,2009.

Publications: IssuesoftheIWCScanbefoundhere:http://wwa.colorado.edu/IWCS/index.html

Partners/Stakeholders M.L’Heureux(NOAACPC),G.Garfin(CLIMAS),J.Smith(Stratus)

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ProjectTitle: ClimateTrainingofFederalScientists

PrimaryInvestigator(s): B.Udall,R.Webb,C.Hennig,L.Brekke

Contributors: K.Averyt

CoreFunding: NOAA,USBRFUNDING2009:JULY–DEC

Summary: Theemergingrealityofclimatechangepresentsanadditionalarrayofcomplex,newconsiderationsthattheWesternwatercommunitymustnowintegrateintotheiranalysis,planning,anddecision‐makingprocesses.Climatechangescientistsarerapidlydevelopingnew,usefulknowledge.TheobstacletouseisthelackofaneffectivevenuefortheresearchcommunitytotransferthenewknowledgeandcapabilitiestotheWesternwatercommunity;andprovidetrainingontheassociatedlimitations,uncertainties,andcorrectutilizationofthenewknowledgeandcapabilitiesastheyemerge.Thisneedhasbeenconsistentlyidentifiedasahighpriorityinmanyrecentvenuesincluding:

February2008ClimateChangeandWesternWaterGroup(CCAWWG)workshopwithReclamationwaterandenvironmentalcompliancepractitionersandmanagers

March2008U.S.ClimateChangeScienceProgram(CCSP)workshopwithWesternstatesandmunicipalities

November2007WesternStatesWaterCouncilconference:“WaterPoliciesandPlanningintheWest:EnsuringaSustainableFuture”

FindingfromSeptember2007NRCReport,“EvaluatingProgressoftheU.S.ClimateChangeScienceProgram:MethodsandPreliminaryResults”:

“Discoveryscienceandunderstandingofclimatesystemsareproceedingwell,buttheuseofthatknowledgetosupportdecisionmakingandtomanagerisksandopportunitiesofclimatechangeisproceedingslowly”

FindingfromAugust2007GAOReport:GAO‐07‐863:

“Resourcemanagershavelimitedguidancefromtheiragenciesaboutwhetherorhowtoaddressclimatechangeinmanagementactionsandplanningefforts”

ProposedWork: SponsoringfederalagencieswillworkwiththeRISAProgramuniversitiestodevelopatrainingprogramscopetargetedatensuringrelevant,practicalintegrationofbestavailableclimatechangeinformationintothetechnicalstudiesthatsupportfederalwaterresourcedecision‐makingintheWest.Engagementwithnon‐federal,westernwatermanagementinterests(e.g.state,municipal,irrigatedagriculture)willbeintegratedintothedevelopmentofthetrainingprogramsothatcommonneedsareeffectivelydesignedintothetrainingprogram.ThiswillpositionthetrainingprogramtoberobustandusefultotheWesternwatercommunityofpracticefromtheonset.Providestructured,technicaltrainingtoWesternwaterpractitioners,planners,technicalspecialistsand/ordecision‐makers(akaWesternwatercommunity)throughtheuniversity‐basedRegionalIntegratedSciencesandAssessments(RISA)program.TheRISAcentersprovideaccesstointernationallyrecognizedtechnicalexpertsinclimatechangescience.

Progress/Results: Allpartiesagreedtodelayworkonthisprojectuntiltheregionalclimateservicesinitiativeswithintheparticipatingfederalentitiesemerged.Thisprojectwillfallinasa“nocostextension”andresultswillbereportedinsubsequentyears.

Partners/Stakeholders USBR,NOAA

ProjectTitle: InformingtheResponsibleUseofClimateModels&ProjectionsbyStakeholders

PrimaryInvestigator(s): J.Barsugli

Contributors: G.Guentchev,I.Rangwala,L.Brekke,L.Mearns

Summary: Thepurposeofthisprojectistoconnectstakeholderswithclimatechangeprojectiondatainamannerthatleadstoimpactsandvulnerabilityassessmentsthataccuratelyreflectthestateofscientificunderstandingoftheclimate.

Twotrendsareabouttocollide:First,stakeholders(includingFederalagencieswithlandandwatermanagementresponsibilitiestomunicipalandregionalwaterproviders)areclamoringforclimatechangeinformationtoinformimpactsassessments.Inmanycasesthistranslatesintoarequestfordownscaledclimateprojectionsand

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guidanceonhowtousethedata.Second,manynewdatasetsofdownscaledclimateprojectionshaverecentlycomeonline,suchasReclamation’sstatisticallydownscaledclimateprojectionarchive(http://gdo‐dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip3_projections/),orareabouttocomeonline,suchasthelargeandcomplexNARCCAP(NorthAmericanRegionalClimateChangeAssessmentProgramwww.narccap.ucar.edu)archiveofdynamicallydownscaledprojections.Withoutsomeguidance,thereisthepotentialthatthisavalancheofinformationmayleadtoaconfusingarrayofassessments.

Foronestakeholderperspective,considerthecongressionaltestimonyofDavidBeharoftheWaterUtilitiesClimateAlliance(Behar,2009):

“I’veseenfrommyownpersonalexperiencebothattheSFPUCandasaboardmemberatMMWDhowdifficultitcanbetoaccesssoundclimateinformation.Evenasophisticatedwateragencyhasdifficultyfindinganswerstothemostbasicquestionsandaccessingdatacompatiblewiththeirsystemsmodels.Universityresearchersarebusyteachingandpublishing,agencystaffinWashingtonD.C.areunknowntous,andthosewhowecall“users”ofclimateinformationareoftenlefttoscramblehaphazardlytocollecttidbitsofinformationfromamultiplicityofsourcesasweseektocreateresilientcommunitiesreadytoadapttotheeffectsofclimatechange.”

Beharseesthegoalofproviding“accessiblescience”ascentraltoaNationalClimateService,andcommendstheRISAsforbeinga“notabledemonstrationmodel.”Intheseterms,themissionoftheproposedclearinghouseistoprovide“accessiblescience”tostakeholdersinourregionregardingdownscaledclimateprojections.SincetheNCShasnotyetbeendefined,letaloneimplemented,itisstillessentialthattheRISAsengageinthisactivity.Wehaveproposedacross‐RISAcomponentsothattheWWAeffortcanlearnfromthoseRISAswhohaveparticipatedinimpactsassessments,andsothatcommon“lessonslearned”canbecommunicatedtoNOAAregardingtheseefforts.

Progress/Results:

Inretrospect,thesuccessthispastyearhasbeeninthecommunicationoftheuseandinterpretationofclimatechangeinformationtovariousstakeholders.MuchofmyworkalongtheselineswassupportedbythecollaborationbetweenWesternWaterandNOAA/ESRL/PSD,particularlywithregardtoFederalPartnerssuchastheUSFWS,USFS,andNWS.WorkwithReclamationhasincludedparticipationintheCCAWWG,aswellastheReclamationScienceandTechnologyHydrologyWorkingGroup.

Thesecondsuccesshadbeenworkonevaluationofdatasetsusedinclimatechange.WorkingwithLeviBrekkeandDavidRaffofReclamationandwithLindaMearnsfromNCAR,wearedevelopingaproposaltorunNARCCAP‐basedprojectionsthroughcalibratedhydrologymodelingforcomparisontothe“simple”downscalingthatispresentlyusedbyReclamation.Theintentionistotaketheseresultsthroughtheevaluationofsystemperformancemetricstojudgewhetherdownscalingmethodmakesadifferenceindecisionrelevantmetrics.ThedelayinthereleaseoftheNARCCAPdatahashamperedthisstudy,butitwillbepursuedinthecomingmonths.

Presentations: Manyoftheseareworkshopswherethegoalwastoinformtheintegrationofclimatechangeprojectionswithresourcemanagement.

Barsugli,J.(2009).ClimateChangeandAgriculture.SouthwestMarketingNetwork(SustainableAgriculture),Durango,CO.

Barsugli,J.(2009).BringingClimateChangeHome:WhatProjectionsSayforColorado’sWaterResources.(TrainingforhighSchoolScienceTeachers),Boulder,CO

Barsugli,J.(2009).ClimateChangeattheRegionalLevel.USFWSMountainPrairieRegionEcologicalServices2009ProjectLeadersMeeting,Denver,CO.

Barsugli,J.(2009).WhitepaperonImprovementstoClimateModelstoProvideUsefulInformationtoWaterManagers..FrontRangeWaterProvidersDenver,CO.

Barsugli,J.(2009).WhitepaperonImprovementstoClimateModelstoProvideUsefulInformationtoWaterManagers.AspenGlobalChangeInstitute,Aspen,CO.

Barsugli,J.(2009).ClimateModelsandScenariosofClimateChangeintheWesternUnitedStates.USFSWesternWatershedsandClimateChangeWorkingGroup,Boulder,CO.

Barsugli,J.(2009).GunnisonRiverClimateHistoryandChange.TNCGunnisonClimateAdaptationWorkshop,Gunnison,CO.

Barsugli,J.(2009).What’sneededfromclimatemodelingtoadvanceactionablescienceforwaterutilities?.AmericanGeophysicalUnion,SanFrancisco,CO.

Publications: Barsugli,J.,J.Joseph,etal.(2009)."OptionsforImprovingClimateModelingtoAssistWaterUtilityPlanningforClimateChange[WhitePaper]."WaterUtilityClimateAlliance:146.

Partners/Stakeholders Reclamation,CWCB,FrontRangeWaterProviders,ESRL/PSD,BLM,USFWS,USFS,TheNatureConservancy

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LookingAhead

Lastyear,theWesternWaterAssessmentunderwentasignificantreorganizationintendedtobroadenthescopeofourresearchandbuildonthestrengthsofresearchersintheIntermountainWestcommunity.WecreatedanAdvisoryBoardofkeystakeholders(Table7)withtheintentiontheywouldbetterinformingusoftheefficacyoftheprojectsoutlinedaboveintheregionalcommunity.OurfirstAdvisoryBoardMeetingwasheldinApril2010,andtheinputreceivedfromthatmeetingwillbereflectedintheFY2011WWAStatementofWork.

Table7.AdvisoryBoardMembers

TimothyBrick Chairman,MetropolitanWaterDistrict,SouthernCalifornia

CurtisBrown Director,ResearchandDevelopment,ReclamationScienceandTechnology

TerranceFulp DeputyRegionalDirectoroftheBureauofReclamation’sLowerColoradoRegion

JenniferGimbel Director,ColoradoWaterConservationBoard

MelindaKassen Director,WesternWaterProject,TroutUnlimited

EricKuhn GeneralManager,ColoradoRiverWaterConservationDistrict

ChuckKutscher PrincipalEngineer,NationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory,DepartmentofEnergy

PatriciaMulroy GeneralManager,SouthernNevadaWaterAuthority

WilliamNeff Director,PhysicalScienceDivision,NOAAEarthSystemResearchLaboratory

MichelleSchmidt HydrologistinCharge,NOAAColoradoBasinRiverForecastCenter

JimVerdin DeputyDirector,NationalIntegratedDroughtInformationSystem(NIDIS),USGS

MarcWaage Manager,WaterResourcesPlanningDivision,DenverWater

RobertWigington WesternWaterPolicyCounsel,TheNatureConservancy

TheWWAAdvisoryboardwascreatedtohelpusdirectourresourcesinthemostresponsivemannerpossibletoourstakeholdersandtoNOAA.TheAdvisoryBoardhas,andwillcontinuetoprovideinputintoourresearchthemesandproposedprojects,andwillprovidesimilarinputintoourentireprogram.

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AppendixI.PersonnelandStakeholders

TableA‐1.WWAPersonnel

TeamMember Title Expertise

Alexander,Michael Scientist,NOAAESRLPhysicalSciencesDivision ClimateExtremesAlvord,Christina ResearchAssociate,WesternWaterAssessment TribalRelations,Outreach

Averyt,Kristen DeputyDirector,WesternWaterAssessmentClimatology,AssessmentProcesses

Barsugli,Joseph ResearchAssociate,CIRES,Univ.ofColorado ClimateDynamics

Bates,Gary ResearchAssociate,CIRES,Univ.ofColorado ClimateModeling

Burke,Indy Director,HaubSchool&RuckelshausInstitute,Univ.ofWyoming Ecology,RenewableResources

Cozzetto,KarenPost‐doctoralResearchAssociate,DepartmentofEnvironmentalStudies,UniversityofColorado

Hydroclimatology,surfacewaterhydrologyandecology

Deems,Jeff ResearchAssociate,CIRES,Univ.ofColorado ClimateandSnowModeling

Doesken,Nolan

ColoradoStateClimatologist,CSU Climatology

Dilling,Lisa AssistantProfessor,EnvironmentalStudies,Univ.ofColorado ClimateInfo.andDecision‐Making

Eischeid,Jon ResearchAssociate,CIRES,Univ.ofColorado ClimateModeling

Getches,David Dean,Univ.ofColoradoLawSchool NaturalResourcesLaw

Gillies,Robert UtahStateClimatologist,UtahStateUniv. Climatology

Goemans,Chris AssistantProfessor,AgriculturalandResourceEconomics,CSU WaterResourceEconomics

Gordon,Eric ProgramManager(beginningJuly12010),WesternWaterAssessment ClimateAdaptation

Gray,Stephen WyomingStateClimatologist,Univ.ofWyoming ClimatologyandPaleoclimatology

Guentchev,GalinaPost‐doctoralResearchAssociate,UniversityCorporationforAtmosphericResearch(UCAR),CLIVAR,PostdocsApplyClimateExpertise

ClimateModeling

Hoerling,Martin Scientist,NOAAESRLPhysicalSciencesDivision ClimateVariability,Hydrology

Jackson,Steve Professor,Botany,Univ.ofWyoming Ecology

Kenney,Douglas Director,WesternWaterPolicyProgram,NRLC,Univ.ofColorado WesternWaterPolicyandLaw

Klein,Roberta ManagingDirectorofCSTPR,Univ.ofColorado EnvironmentalPolicy

Lukas,Jeffrey SeniorResearchAssociate,WesternWaterAssessment Paleohydrology,ForestEcology

Mahoney,KellyPost‐doctoralResearchAssociate,UniversityCorporationforAtmosphericResearch(UCAR),CLIVAR,PostdocsApplyClimateExpertise

Extremeprecipitation,numericalmodeling,warmseasonconvection

McAfee,StephanieNationalResearchCouncilAssociate,PhysicalSciencesDivision(PSD),EarthSystemsResearchLaboratory(ESRL),NOAA

Climate&Biogeochemistry

McCutchan,James DeputyDirector,CenterforLimnology,CIRES,Univ.ofColorado Limnology

Neff,JasonAssociateProfessor,GeologicalSciences&EnvironmentalStudies,Univ.ofColorado

Biogeochemistry

Neff,William Director,PSD,NOAAESRL AtmosphericPhysics

Nowak,Kenneth PhDCandidate,CADSWES,Univ.ofColorado Hydrology

Painter,Thomas AssistantProfessor,Geography,Univ.ofUtah Hydrology

Rajagopolan,Balaji AssociateProfessor,CivilEngineering,Univ.ofColorado Hydrology

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TeamMember Title Expertise

Rangwala,ImtiazPost‐doctoralResearchAssociate,UniversityCorporationforAtmosphericResearch(UCAR),CLIVAR,PostdocsApplyClimateExpertise

HighElevationClimatology

Ray,AndreaScientist,ClimateAnalysisBranch,NOAAESRLPhysicalSciencesDivision

Climate‐SocietyInteractions,WaterManagement

Squillace,Mark Director,NRLC,Univ.ofColorado NaturalResourcesLaw

Steffen,Konrad Director,CIRES,Univ.ofColorado Climatology

Travis,William AssociateProfessor,Geography;Director,CSTPR,Univ.ofColoradoNaturalhazards;climateimpactsandadaptation

Udall,Bradley Director,WesternWaterAssessment ColoradoRiver,Hydrology,Policy

vanDrunick,Suzanne AssistantDirectorforScience,CIRES,Univ.ofColorado HydrologyandEcology

Webb,RobertS Chief,ClimateAnalysisBranch,NOAAESRLPhysicalSciencesDivision Paleoclimatology

Wolter,Klaus ResearchAssociate,CIRES,Univ.ofColorado Climatology

TableA‐2.WWAStakeholdersandPartners

FEDERAL

Organization MajorContact(s)

BureauofLandManagement EdwardRumbold(CO),RoddHardy(UT),ScottArcher(CO)JeffKitchens(CO)

BureauofReclamation CurtBrown,ChuckHennig,TerryFulp,LeviBrekke,JamesPrairie,CarlyJerla,DavidRaff,AvraMorgan

EnvironmentalProtectionAgency LauraFarris(Region8)

NationalParkService BrentFrakes(RockyMountainNetwork),DaveSharrow(ZionNP),JudyVisty(RockyMountainNP),LeighWelling(ClimateChangeCoordinator)

NationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory ChuckKutscher,RobinNewmark,LarryFlowers

NaturalResourcesConservationService RandyJulander(UT),MikeGillespie(CO),LeeHackleman(WY);JanCurtis(NationalWaterandClimateCenter)

NationalIntegratedDroughtInformationSystem(NIDIS) RogerPulwarty,JamesVerdin,ChadMcNutt,LisaDarby,MikeBrewer

NOAAClimateServicesDivision AhshaTribble,DianaPerfect

NOAAESRLCommunicationsandOutreach CarolKnight,Anatta,KatyHuman

NOAANationalDroughtMitigationCenter MikeHayes

NWSBillings,MTWFO DonaldMoore

NWSBoulder,COWFO LarryMooney,MikeBaker,TresteHuse

NWSCentralRegionHQ DougKluck

NWSCheyenne,WYWFO JohnEise,MelissaGoering

NWSClimatePredictionCenter WayneHiggins,MichelleL’Heureux,EdO’Lenic,JonGottschalck,MikeHalpert

NWSColoradoBasinRiverForecastCenter KevinWerner,MichelleSchmidt

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NWSGrandJunction,COWFO JoeRamey,JohnKyle

NWSHastings,NEWFO MichaelLewis

NWSMissoula,MTWFO RobertNester

NWSMissouriBasinRiverForecastCenter GreggSchalk,JohnLague,TomGurss

NWSNorthPlatte,NEWFO BrianHirsch,ChristopherButtler

NWSPocatello,IDWFO MikeHuston

NWSRiverton,WYWFO ArthurMeunier,BrettMcDonald,JamesFahey

NWSSaltLakeCity,UTWFO BrianMcInerney

NWSSouthernRegionHQ VictorMurphy

NWSWesternRegionHQ AndreaBair,JeffZimmerman

U.S.ArmyCorpsofEngineers ThomasJohnson

U.S.FishandWildlifeService DavidCampbell,GeorgeSmith,TomCzapla

U.S.ForestService LindaJoyce,ChuckRhoades(RMRS),PollyHays(Region2),RickHopson

U.S.GeologicalSurvey MichaelDettinger,DanCayan,JayCederberg,JayneBelnap,WarrenDay,JennyBriggs

USDAAgriculturalResearchService JeanneSchneider

Organization MajorContact

CaliforniaDept.ofWaterResources JeanineJones

ColoradoWaterConservationBoard JenniferGimbel,VevaDeheza,TarynHutchins‐Cabibi,BenWade

ColoradoDivisionofWaterResources/StateEngineer’sOffice AlanMartellaro,DonWest

ColoradoRiverCommissionofNevada NicoleEverett

ColoradoStateLegislature GaryLindstrom

ColoradoDepartmentofPublicHealthandtheEnvironment GinnyBrannon

ColoradoDivisionofWildlife TomSchreiner

NewMexicoInterstateStreamCommission MarkMurphy

NewMexicoStateEngineer’sOffice JohnLongworth

UtahDepartmentofNaturalResources KevinValcare,MatthewLindon

UtahDivisionofForestry ScottZeidler

UtahDivisionofWaterResources CraigMiller

UtahGovernor’sOffice JulieBreckenridge,LisCohen

WyomingAttorneyGeneral’sOffice JaneCaton

WyomingStateEngineer’sOffice BeckyMathisen,RandyTullis,JohnShields,MattHoobler

WyomingWaterDevelopmentCommission BruceBrinkman,BarryLawrence,L.MikeBesson

AuroraWater,CO D.AlfredoRodriguez,KevinReidy,Amy

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Klabunde,MikeMcHugh

BoulderCountyParksandOpenSpace ChadJulian,ThereseGlowacki

CentennialWaterandSanitationDistrict,CO JohnHendrick,RickMcLoud

CheyenneBoardofPublicUtilities,WY ClintBassett,HermanNoe,TimothyWilson

CityofBoulder,CO CarolEllinghouse

CityofFortCollins,CO DennisBode,DonnieDustin

CityofLafayette,CO DouglasShort,PeterJohnson

CityofLouisville,CO DanMathes,TomPhare

CityofThornton,CO EmilyHunt,MarkKoleber,GregJohnson

CityofWestminster,CO MikeHappe,JoshNims,StuFeinglas

ColoradoRiverWaterConservationDistrict,CO EricKuhn,DaveKanzer

ColoradoSpringsUtilities BrettGracely,KevinLusk,LeonBasdekas

ColoradoWaterwiseCouncil PaulLander

DenverWater MarkWaage,RobertSteger,LaurnaKaatz,DonKennedy

MetropolitanWaterDistrictofSouthernCA JanMatusak,PeterJacobsen

MojaveValleyIrrigationandDrainageDist.,AZ DonaldCurrie

NorthernColoradoWaterConservancyDistrict,CO AndyPineda,EstherVincent

ProvoRiverWaterUsersAssoc. JeffBudge

PuebloWaterBoard,CO AlanHamel

RoaringForkConservancy,CO SharonClarke

S.AdamsCountyWaterandSanitationDist. GregFabisiak

SaltLakeCityPublicUtilities LarryAlserada

SouthernNevadaWaterAuthority PatriciaMulroy

TaosPueblo GilbertSuazo

UpperGunnisonRiverWaterConservancyDistrict,CO RalphGrover

UtahWaterUsersAssociation CarleyBurton

WeberBasinWater,UT MarkAnderson

WesternAreaPowerAuthority ClaytonPalmer

UNIVERSITY

ClimateAssessmentfortheSouthwest(CLIMAS),UniversityofArizona

DanFerguson,JonathanOverpeck,GreggGarfin,GigiOwen,ZackGuido

Univ.ofWashington DennisLettenmaier,LaraWhitleyBinder

ColoradoClimateCenter,ColoradoStateUniversity NolanDoesken

ColoradoForestRestorationInstitute,ColoradoStateUniversity TonyCheng,JessicaClement

ColoradoWaterInstitute,ColoradoStateUniversity ReaganWaskom

ColoradoStateUniversity JasonSibold,JessicaClement,DanSmith,JoseSalas,MoniqueRocca

DesertResearchInstitute;WesternRegionalClimateCenter KellyRedmond

KansasStateUniversity MaryKnapp

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NationalCenterforAtmosphericResearch DavidYates,KathyMiller,LindaMearns

SoutheastClimateConsortium;FloridaState DavidZierdan

UniversityofNevada ThomasPiechota

UniversityofNebraska;HighPlainsRegionalClimateCenter KenHubbard,KennethDewey

UniversityofNewMexico AmyEllwein

UniversityofUtah PhilDennison,JohnMatsen

UniversityofWyoming IndyBurke,JaquelineShinker,DianaHulme

UtahStateClimatologist;UtahStateUniversity RobertGillies

WeberStateUniversity DanBedford

WesternStateCollege GeorgeSibley

WyomingStateClimatologist;UniversityofWyoming StephenGray

OTHER/NonProfit

AmericanWaterWorksAssociationResearchFoundation RobRenner

ArapahoeBasinSkiArea TimFinnigan

Bloomberg(media) JohnLippert

CarpeDiem(EXLOCO) KimeryWiltshire

CarverSchwarzMcNab&Bailey,LLC DaveBailey

ClimateScienceForum MichaelFortune

ColoradoFoundationforWaterEducation KristinMaharg

ColoradoWaterCongress DougKemper

ConservationInternational HannahCampbell

EnvironmentalDefense JenniferPitt

ForestHealthTaskForce(SummitCounty,CO) HowardHallman

FoxNews RickReichmuth

GunnisonEnergyCorp. JasonHoeler

HighCountryCitizen’sAlliance SteveGlazer

IndigenousWatersNetwork GaryCollins

LivingRivers/ColoradoRiverKeepers JohnWeisheit

MountainStudiesInstitute KorenNydick

MWHGlobal GeraldGibbens

NationalPublicRadio‐Denver JeffBrady

OmahaWorldHerald NancyGardner

Pacificorp DarceGuyman

ResourceMedia TheoStein

RockyMountainClimateOrganization TomEasley,StephenSaunders

RegionalTransportationDistrict(RTD)‐Denver MichaelCarlson

SierraClub BarbaraWilliams

SustainableTucson MadelineKiser

TetraTech JohnEdrich

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TheNatureConservancy RobertWigington

TroutUnlimited MelindaKassen

VailResorts LukeCartin

WalshEnvironmental MargitHentschel

WaterUtilityClimateAlliance DavidBehar(SanFranciscoPublicUtilitiesCommission),PaulFleming(SeattlePublicUtilities),BrandonGoshen(MetropolitanWaterDistrict),AngelaLicata(NewYorkCityDept.ofEnvironmentalProtection)

WesternGovernors’Association MadelineWest,RichHalvey,TomIseman

WesternResourceAdvocates BartMiller,StacyTellinghausen

WesternStatesWaterCouncil TonyWillardson,CraigBell

AppendixII.Presentations

January11,2009KWolterInternationalWeatherandClimateEventsof2008AmericanMeteorologicalSocietyMeeting,Atlanta,GA

January13,2009KAverytPanelist,WaterintheWestAmericanMeteorologicalSociety,Phoenix,AZ

January14,2009KWolterANewandImprovedMultivariateEnsoIndex(MEI)AmericanMeteorologicalSocietyMeeting,Phoenix,AZ

January15,2009JLukasWhatTreeRingstellusAboutHydrologicVariabilityinColoradoandDenverWater’sWatershedsDenverWaterPlanningForum,Denver,CO

January21,2009KAverytWaterintheWestUniversityofColoradoatBoulder,Boulder,CO

January22,2009KWolterSeasonalOutlookthroughMarch2009ColoradoWaterAvailability&FloodTaskForce,Denver,CO

January27,2009BUdallClimateChangeandWater:AdaptationChallengesNationalResearchCouncilPanel:America’sClimateChoices:AdaptingtotheImpactsofClimateChange,Washington,D.C.

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January28,2009JDeemsDesertDustImpactsonColoradoRiverBasinSnowpackandRunoffEmergingIssuesinClimateChange‐UNEPExpertWorkshop,NewDelhi,India

January28,2009BUdallClimateChangeinColoradoPresentationtoColoradoWaterConservationBoard,Denver,CO

February4,2009JLukasTree‐ringPaleohydrologiesandtheirApplicationtoWaterManagementinColoradoandtheWestHydrologicSciencesandWaterResourcesEngineeringSeminar,UniversityofColorado,Boulder,CO

February9,2009BUdallRiskofColoradoRiverReservoirDryingandImplicationsforRiverManagementinthe21stCentury,Boulder,CO

February11,2009BUdallClimateChangeandthelinkagetoWaterResources:WhatEveryoneShouldKnowEPARegion8Meeting,Denver,CO

February18,2009JBarsugliPanelistCO‐LABSPanelonClimateChangeandWater,Denver,CO

February20,2009KAverytClimateChangeinColoradoAgricultureGroup,Greeley,CO

February24,2009JBarsugliClimateChange101Utah’sWaterSupplyConference,SaltLakeCity,UT

February25,2009KWolterSeasonalOutlookthoughMay2009ColoradoWaterAvailability&FloodTaskForce,Denver,CO

March6,2009KWolterLetitsnow,LetitSnow,LetitSnow!BixbyElementarySchool,Boulder,CO

March10,2009BUdallClimateChangeandWater:AdaptationChallengesWasatchSustainabilitySummit,SaltLakeCity,UT

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March17,2009BUdallClimateChangeandtheRelationshiptoWaterResourcesJohnsonFoundationConferenceonWater,Racine,WI

March20,2009KWolterSeasonalOutlookthroughJune2009ColoradoWaterAvailability&FloodTaskForce,Denver,CO

March23,2009KWolterExperimentalSeasonalClimateForecastsBinationalDroughtScienceConference,SanDiego,CA

March24,2009JBarsugliColoradoRiver:OutofWaterorOutofContextClimatePredictionApplicationsScienceWorkshop,Norman,OK

March25,2009KAverytAnUncertaintyFrameworkforRegionalClimateAssessments?ClimatePredictionApplicationsScienceWorkshop,Norman,OK

March25,2009KNowakNonparametricDailyDisaggregationofAnnualStreamflowValuesColoradoStateUniversityHydrologyDays,FortCollins,CO

March25,2009BUdallClimateChangeinColorado,ASynthesistoSupportWaterResourcesManagementandAdaptationJointAgricultureCommittee,Denver,CO

March25,2009BUdallClimateChangeinColoradoJointAgricultureCommittee,ColoradoLegislature,Denver,CO

March27,2009BUdallResolvingProjectionsfortheColoradoRiverBasinBorderGovernors'BinationalDroughtConference,SanDiego,CA

April3,2009KNowakWaterSupplyRiskontheColoradoRiver:CanManagementMitigate?UniversityofColoradoHydrologicScienceSymposium,Boulder,CO

April3,2009BUdallClimateChange,WaterandTheWestSouthwesternWaterConservationDistrict,Durango,CO

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April3,2009BUdallClimateChange,WaterandTheWestSouthwesternWaterConservationDistrict,Durango,CO

April7,2009BUdallWaterResourcesandDroughtUSClimateChangeScienceProgramWorkshoponEnhancingUSContributionstoWorkingGroup2oftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeAR5,WashingtonD.C

April10,2009JBarsugliClimateChangeandAgricultureSouthwestMarketingNetwork,Durango,CO

April12,2009NDoeskenColoradoClimateTrendsWebsiteArkansasRiverBasinWaterForum,Longmont,CO

April14,2009JBarsugliClimateModels:InterpretationandUseNationalWeatherServiceClimateChangeTraining,Boulder,CO

April14,2009KWolterThoughtsAbouttheNextThreetoFiveMonthsinNorthAmerica,withSpecialFocuson(South‐)EasternU.S.VideoconferenceEasternSeasonalAssessmentWorkshop,NationalInteragencyFireCenter(NIFC),Shepherdstown,WV

April15,2009KWolterThoughtsAbouttheUpcomingSpring&SummerinNorthAmerica,withSpecialFocuson(South‐)WesternU.S.NationalInteragencyFireCenterWorkshop,Boulder,CO

April15,2009KWolter"Natural"ClimateVariabilityWesternRegionClimateChangeWorkshop,Boulder,CO

April15,2009BUdallTheWesternWaterAssessment:ConnectingClimateSciencewithDecisionMakingintheRockyMountainWestNationalWeatherServiceWesternRegionClimateChangeWorkshop,Boulder,CO

April21,2009BUdallResolvingProjectionsfortheColoradoRiverBasinProjectUpdateMeeting,Boulder,CO

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April22,2009KWolterSeasonalOutlookthroughSeptember2009ColoradoWaterAvailability&FloodTaskForce,Denver,CO

April28,2009KNowakWaterSupplyRiskontheColoradoRiver:CanManagementMitigate?SouthernNevadaWaterAuthority‐LasVegasWashCoordinationCommitteeMeeting,LasVegas,NV

May2,2009TPainterWhereDesertsandMountainsCollide:theImplicationsofAcceleratedSnowmeltbyDesertDustGuyF.AtkinsonDistinguishedLectureSeries,DepartmentofGeologyandGeophysics,UniversityofUtah,SaltLakeCity,UT

May5,2009BUdallClimateChangeAdaptationandWaterResourcesUniersityCorporationforAtmosphericResearchOfficeofGovernmentAffairsHouseBriefing,Washington,D.C.

May14,2009JBarsugliClimateChangeattheRegionalLevelUSGeologicalSurveyScienceCenter,FortCollins,CO.

May27,2009KWolterSeasonalOutlookthroughSeptember2009ColoradoWaterAvailability&FloodTaskForce,Denver,CO

June2,2009KNowakUsingWaveletsforSpectralAnalysisofStreamflowDataintheColoradoRiverBasinColoradoRiverHydrologyWorkingGroup,Boulder,CO

June15,2009TPainterWhereMountainsandDesertsCollide:ImplicationsofAcceleratedSnowmeltbyDisturbedDesertDustNASAEarthSystemScienceat20yearsSymposium,Washington,D.C.

June18,2009KWolterSeasonalOutlookthroughOctober2009ColoradoWaterAvailability&FloodTaskForce,Denver,CO

July14,2009BUdallTheRegionalIntegratedSciencesAssessmentPerspectiveonClimateServicesClimateWorkingGroupMeeting,Broomfield,CO

July16,2009KWolterLongTermWeatherOutlookColoradoWaterAvailability&FloodTaskForce,Denver,CO

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July27,2009JBarsugliBringingClimateChangeHome:WhatProjectionsSayforColorado’sWaterResourcesTrainingforHighSchoolScienceTeachers,Boulder,CO

July29,2009BUdallAProposedFrameworkforCollaborativeColoradoRiverDecisionMakingSupportedbySocialandPhysicalSciencePresentationtoMikeConnor,CommissionerBureauofUSBureauofReclamation,AssistantDepartmentofInteriorSecretaryAnneCastle,Washington,D.C.

August10,2009JBarsugliSummaryofRecentPapersontheColoradoRiverTeleconference,FrontRangeWaterProviders,Teleconference

August14,2009TPainterWhenDesertsandMountainsCollide:TheImpactofDesertDustonSnowmeltHydrologyintheColoradoRiverBasinJetPropulsionLaboratoryScienceVisitorandColloquiumProgram,Pasadena,CA

August19,2009DKenneyTheLastDrop:ColoradoRiverDroughtandClimateChangeTheNationalCenterforAtmosphericReserachJournalismFellows,Boulder,CO

August20,2009JBarsugliTheCertainUncertainFutureoftheColoradoRiver,Panelistfor“IntegratingClimateChangeandWaterPlanning"ColoradoWaterCongressSummerConference,SteamboatSprings,CO

August25,2009JBarsugliClimateChangeattheRegionalLevelUSFishandWildlifeServiceMountainPrairieRegionEcologicalServices2009ProjectLeadersMeeting,Denver,CO

August26,2009KWolterLongTermWeatherOutlookColoradoWaterAvailability&FloodTaskForce,Denver,CO

September9,2009BUdallResolvingProjectionsfortheColoradoRiverBasinColoradoRiverBoardofCalifornia,Ontario,CA

September15,2009JBarsugliWhitepaperonImprovementstoClimateModelstoProvideUsefulInformationtoWaterManagersFrontRangeWaterProviders,Boulder,CO

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September16,2009KAverytInvitedPanelist&PresenterClimateServicesforWaterManagers,Webinar

September18,2009TPainterWhat’stheDirtySecretofDirtySnowColoradoRiverWaterConservancyDistrictAnnualMeeting,GrandJunction,CO

September21,2009JBarsugliWhitepaperonImprovementstoClimateModelstoProvideUsefulInformationtoWaterManagersAspenGlobalChangeInstitute,Aspen,CO

September22,2009KWolterClimateChangeinColorado:Present,Past,andFutureBoulderAudubonSociety,Boulder,CO

September29,2009BUdallGlobalClimateChangeImpactsintheU.S.:WaterResourcesFindingsGlobalChangeImpactsintheUnitedStatesWebinar,Webinar

October2,2009BUdallGlobalBiogeochemicalCycles:Humanity’s21stCenturyIQTestUniversityofColoradoCenterfortheAmericanWestBoardRetreat,EstesPark,CO

October5,2009GGuentchevStatisticalSignificanceoftheModel‐ObservedDifferencesinPrecipitationVariabilityfortheHistorical1951‐1999PeriodColoradoRiverHydrologyGroupmeeting,Boulder,CO

October7,2009KWolterWhatDoesElNiñoMeanforDroughtinTexas?NationalDroughtForum,Austin,TX

October8,2009JBarsugliClimateinColoradoAmericanPlanningAssociation,EstesPark,CO

October8,2009KWolterElNiñoasa'Drought‐Buster'inTexas:HowReliableisit,orWhatCanweExpectthisWinter?AretheSeptemberRainsaSignofThingstoCome?DroughtMonitorForum,Austin,TX

October14,2009BUdallClimateChangeAdaptation:WaterSectorWishes,Wants,ConstraintsandCravingsUniversityCorporationofAtmosphericResearchForum,Boulder,CO

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October15,2009KWolterPanelist,SeasonalWeatherIndicesMDAEarthSatWeatherMeeting,LasVegas,NV

October20,2009BUdallWaterSectorNeedsandWantsfromClimateModelsAspenGlobalChangeInstitute,Aspen,CO

October22,2009KAverytSolarThermal&Coal‐FiredPowerPlants:ConsequencesfortheWesternUSandColoradoRiverBasinRenewableEnergyintheSouthwest:ConcentratedSolarandBeyond,Tucson,AZ

October22,2009TPainterDirtyLittleSecretsoftheGreatestSnowonEarthGreenMonthSustainabilityLectureSeriesatParkCity,sponsoredbySwanerandtheUniversityofUtahOfficeofSustainability,(withPeterMetcalfandJimSteenburgh),SaltLakeCity,UT

October27,2009DKenneyInterstateWaterAllocationintheUnitedStates:Part2‐‐TheColoradoRiverPresentationtotheGeneralInstituteforWaterPlanning(GIWP),People’sRepublicofChina,Beijing,China

November2,2009BUdallBoardofDirectors'RetreatMetropolitanWaterDistrictofSouthernCalifornia2060,LosAngeles,CA

November3,2009KWolterWhatcanCaliforniaExpectThisWinter?Winter2010OutlookWorkshop,SanDiego,CA

November10,2009KWolterWhatcantheUpperColoradoBasinExpectthisWinter?NOAANationalIntegratedDroughtInformationSystemWeeklyDroughtWebinars,Boulder,CO

November17,2009JBarsugliClimateModelsandScenariosofClimateChangeintheWesternUnitedStatesUSForestServiceWesternWatershedsandClimateChangeWorkingGroup,Boulder,CO.

November18,2009JLukasTreeFlow:UsingTree‐ringPaleohydrologyasaPlanningToolWesternWatershedsandClimateChange‐WaterandAquaticSystemToolsWorkshop(USDAForestService),Boulder,CO,

November30,2009KWolterReliabilityofENSOsignalinWesternU.S.inlastdecadeCaliforniaWaterResourcesWorkshop,SanDiego,CA

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December8,2009JBarsugliGunnisonRiverClimateHistoryandChangeTheNatureConservancyGunnisonClimateAdaptationWorkshop,,Gunnison,CO

December8,2009KWolterUpperColorado2009‐10:QuoVadis?SevenStatesMeeting,LasVegas,NV

December8,2009BUdallWesternWaterChallengesinthe21stCenturyUrbanLandInstituteAnnualMeeting,LasVegas,NV

December14,2009KAverytDevelopingandEvaluatingWorkshopFrameworkstoImproveClimateLiteracyAmericanGeophysicalUnionFallMeeting,SanFrancisco,CA

December15,2009TPainterAFive‐yearRecordofRadiativeandHydrologicForcingbyDesertDustintheColoradoRiverBasinAmericanGeophysicalUnionFallMeeting,SanFrancisco,CA

December15,2009BUdallWaterResourceFindingsfromGlobalChangeImpactsintheUnitedStatesAmericanGeophysicalUnionFallMeeting,SanFrancisco,CA

December15,2009TPainterWaterYieldLossintheUpperColoradoRiverBasinDrivenbyDustRadiativeForcinginSnowAmericanGeophysicalUnionFallMeeting,SanFrancisco,CA

December16,2009JBarsugliWhat’sNeededfromClimateModelingtoAdvanceActionableScienceforWaterUtilities?AmericanGeophysicalUnionFallMeeting,SanFrancisco,CA

December16,2009TPainterRadiativeForcingbyDesertDustintheColoradoRiverBasinfrom2000to2009UsingCoupledSatelliteandinsituMeasurementsAmericanGeophysicalUnionFallMeeting,SanFrancisco,CA

December17,2009EGordonIdentifyingDecision‐Makers'ScienceNeedsforAdaptationforClimate‐RelatedImpactsonForestEcosystemServicesAmericanGeophysicalUnionFallMeeting,SanFrancisco,CA

December17,2009BUdallTheNeedforBetterScienceintheColoradoRiverBasintoSupportDecisionMakingPresentationtoDepartmentofInteriorSecretarySalazar,AssistantSecretaryAnneCastleandChairmanRaulGrijalva,Washington,D.C.

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October,2009NDoeskenColoradoClimateTrendsWebsiteSouthPlatteRiverForum,Longmont,CO

October,2009KWolterSnowStormsScienceDayLecture,Boulder,CO

October,2009TPainterImpactofDesertDustonSnowmeltResourcesintheColoradoRiverBasinBriefingtoDepartmentofInteriorAssistantSecretaryAnneCastle,Washington,D.C.

October,2009TPainterImpactofDesertDustonSnowmeltResourcesintheColoradoRiverBasinBriefingsofCongressionalStaffers,USHouseSubcommitteeonWaterandPower,USSenateSubcommitteeEnergyandWaterResources,ColoradoSenatorMarkUdall,Washington,D.C.

September290,2009BUdallWater,ClimateChangeandSustainabilityAssociationofStateDrinkingWaterAdministrators,Denver,CO

AppendixIII.MajorAwards

2009DepartmentofInteriorPartnersinConservationAward,AppendixU

2009Governor’sAwardforScience,Finalist,ClimateChangeinColoradoReport

AppendixIV.Publications

Alvord,C.(2009).TheWaterYear2009inReview.IntermountainWestClimateSummary5(6).

Averyt,K.(2009).ContinuingPathsandNewDirectionsfortheWesternWaterAssessment.IntermountainWestClimateSummary5(5).

Averyt,K.,Lukas,J.,Alvord,C.,Barsugli,J.,andDoesken,N.(2009).The“DealingwithDrought:AdaptingtoaChangingClimate”Workshops.ReporttotheColoradoWaterConservationBoard.

Averyt,K.,McNutt,C.,andPulwarty,R.(2009).ResearchDirectionsinSupportoftheFifthIPCCReport:AReporttotheUSGCRP.ReporttotheU.S.GlobalChangeResearchProgram.

Averyt,K.,Alvord,C.,Joyce,L.,Lukas,J.,Barsugli,J.,Owen,G.,andUdall,B.(2009).DevelopingandEvaluatingWorkshopFrameworkstoImproveClimateLiteracyAmericanGeophysicalUnionFallMeetingAbstract,U13D‐07.

Barsugli,J.,Anderson,C.,Smith,J.,andVogel,J.(2009).What'sNeededfromClimateModelingtoAdvanceActionableScienceforWaterUtilities?AmericanGeophysicalUnionFallMeetingAbstract,H331‐08.

Barsugli,J.Nowak,K.,Rajagopalan,B.,Prairie,J.,andHarding,B.(2009).Commenton“WhenWillLakeMeadgoDry?”byT.P.BarnettandD.W.Pierce.WaterResourcesResearch.,45,W09601,doi:10.1029/2008WR007627.

Barsugli,J.,AndersonC.,Smith,J.,andVogel,J.(2009).OptionsforImprovingClimateModelingtoAssistWaterUtilityPlanningforClimateChange.WhitePaperpreparedfortheWaterUtilityClimateAlliance.

AnnualReport

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Deems,J.,Lundquist,J.,andLoheide,S.(2009).ClimateChangeImpactsonSnowmeltHydrologyinSmallSierraNevadaBasinsforEcologicalApplications.AmericanGeophysicalUnionFallMeetingAbstract,H33E‐0935.

Flanner,M.,Zender,C.,Hess,P.,Mahowald,N.,Painter,T.,Ramanathan,V.,andRasch,P.(2009).SpringtimeWarmingandReducedSnowCoverfromCarbonaceousParticles.AtmosphericChemistryandPhysics9:2481‐2497.

Gangopadhyay,S.,Harding,B.,Rajagopalan,B.,Lukas,J.,andFulp,T.(2009).ANon‐ParametricApproachforPaleohydrologicReconstructionofAnnualStreamflowEnsembles.WaterResourcesResearch45,W06417.

Gordon,E.,andLukas,J.(2009).IdentifyingDecision‐Makers'ScienceNeedsforAdaptationforClimate‐RelatedImpactsonForestEcosystemServices.AmericanGeophysicalUnionFallMeetingAbstract,NH41A‐1233.

Guentchev,G.,Barsugli,J.,Eischeid,J.,Raff,D.,andBrekke,L.(2009).HowWelldotheGCMsReplicatetheHistoricalPrecipitationVariabilityintheColoradoRiverBasin?AmericanGeophysicalUnionFallMeetingAbstract,U13B‐0558.

Hoerling,M.,Lettenmaier,D.,Cayan,D.,andUdall,B.(2009).ReconcilingFutureColoradoRiverFlows.SouthwestHydrology8(3).

Jerla,C.,andPrairie,J.(2009).ColoradoRiverInterimGuidelinesforLowerBasinShortagesandtheCoordinatedOperationsforLakePowellandLakeMead&EffortsAddressingClimateChangeandVariability.IntermountainWestClimateSummary5(1).

Kenney,D.,Klein,R.,andGoemans,C.(2009).PreliminaryFindingsfromWesternWaterAssessment’s“WaterRightsandClimateChange”Project.IntermountainWestClimateSummary5(2).

Kenney,D.(2009).TheColoradoRiver:WhatProspectfor‘ARiverNoMore’.InF.MolleandP.Wester,eds.,RiverBasins:Trajectories,Societies,Environments:ComprehensiveAssessmentofWaterManagementinAgriculture.,CABInternational:WallingfordEngland:123‐146.

Leary,N.,Averyt,K.,Hewitson,B.,andMarengo,J.(2009).CrossingThresholdsinRegionalClimateResearch:SynthesisoftheIPCCExpertMeetingonRegionalImpacts,Adaptation,Vulnerability,andMitigation.ClimateResearch40:121‐131,doi:10.3354/cr00832.

Lowrey,J.Ray,A.,andWebb,R.(2009).FactorsInfluencingtheUseofClimateInformationbyColoradoMunicipalWaterManagers.ClimateResearch40:103‐119.

Lowrey,J.andM.L'Heureux(2009).NewENSOAlertSystemfromNOAAClimatePredictionCenter.IntermountainWestClimateSummary5(5).

Lukas,J.(2009).TreeFlow:AComprehensiveWebResourceforTree‐ringReconstructionsofStreamflow.IntermountainWestClimateSummary5(5).

Malmberg,J.(2009).TheNationalCenterforAtmosphericResearch’sMarshallField:WinterWeatherPrecipitationResearch.IntermountainWestClimateSummary5(1).

Malmberg,J.(2009).TheClimatePredictionCenter’sU.S.TemperatureandPrecipitationTrendMaps.IntermountainWestClimateSummary5(2).

Malmberg,J.(2009).TheColoradoAvalancheInformationCenter.IntermountainWestClimateSummary5(3).

McAfee,S.andJ.Russell(2009).SimulatedTopographyinWesternNorthAmericaImpactsHemisphericCirculationPatternsandRegionalPrecipitationinIPCCAR4CoupledModels.AmericanGeophysicalUnionFallMeetingAbstract,GC233A‐0712.

Miller,J.,Rangwala,I.,Chen,Y.,andRussell,G.(2009).ClimateChangeandtheWaterVaporFeedbackatHighAltitudesandLatitudes.AmericanGeophysicalUnionFallMeetingAbstract,B33A‐0364.

Nowak,K.,Rajagopalan,B.,andPrairie,J.,(InPress).ANon‐parametricStochasticApproachforMultisiteDisaggregationofAnnualtoDailyStreamflow:WaterResourcesResearch.

Overpeck,J.,Anderson,C.,Cayan,D.,Dettinger,M.,Dow,K.,Hartmann,H.,Jones,J.,Miles,E.,Mote,P.,Shafer,M.,Udall,B.,andWhite,D.(2009).ClimateServices:theRISAExperience.

Painter,T.,Deems,J.,Belnap,J.,Hamlet,A.,Landry,C.,andUdall,B.(Inreview).ResponseofColoradoRiverRunofftoDustRadiativeForcingandSnow.ProceedingsoftheNationalAcademyofSciences.

AnnualReport

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Painter,T.,Deems,J.,Belnap,J.,Hamlet,A.,Landry,C.,andUdall,B.(2009).WaterYieldLossintheUpperColoradoRiverBasinDrivenbyDustRadiativeForcinginSnow.AmericanGeophysicalUnionFallMeetingAbstract,H11E‐0881.

Rajagopalan,B.,Nowak,K.,Prairie,J.,Hoerling,M.,Harding,B.,Barsugli,J.,Ray,A.,andUdall,B.(2009).WaterSupplyRiskontheColoradoRiver:CanManagementMitigate?WaterResourcesResearch45,W08201,doi:10.1029/2008WR00765.

Rangwala,I.andJ.Miller(2009).20thCenturyTrendsintheMaximumandMinimumTemperaturesinColorado'sSanJuanMountains.AmericanGeophysicalUnionFallMeetingAbstract,B33A‐0363.

Ray,A.(2009).WaterResourcesDecision‐MakersandtheirneedsforDecadalClimatePrediction.IntermountainWestClimateSummary5(3).

Rice,J.,Woodhouse,C.,andLukas,J.(2009).Scienceanddecision‐making:Watermanagementandtree‐ringdatainthewesternUnitedStates.JournaloftheAmericanWaterResourcesAssociation45(5):1248‐1259.

Schaepman,M.,Ustin,S.,Plaza,A.,Painter,T.,Verrelest,J.andLiang,S.(Inpress).EarthSystemScienceRelatedImagingSpectroscopy–Anassessment.RemoteSensingofEnvironment.

Shreve,C.,Okin,G.,andPainter,T.(Inpress).IndicesforEstimatingFractionalSnowCoverintheWesternTibetanPlateau.JournalofGlaciology,55(192):737‐745.

Udall,B.andAveryt,K.(2009).ACriticalNeed:ANationalInteragencyWaterPlan.SouthwestHydrology8(1):18‐19.

Udall,B.(2009).WaterintheRockies:ATwenty‐FirstCenturyZero‐sumGame.InB.Conover,ed.,HowtheWestwasWarmed,FulcrumPublishing.

Udall,B.andR.Pulwarty(2009).USGlobalClimateChangeImpactsReport,WaterSector.AmericanGeophysicalUnionFallMeeting,AbstractGC23B‐05.

UnifiedSynthesisProductTeam,(2009).GlobalClimateChangeImpactsintheUnitedStates.U.SClimateChangeScienceProgram,[B.Udall:LeadAuthor,WaterSectorChapter].

Wang,S.,Gillies,R.,Jin,J.,andHipps,L.(2009).RecentRainfallCycleintheIntermountainRegionasaQuadratureAmplitudeModulationfromthePacificDecadalOscillation.GeophysicalResearchLetters.36:L02705,doi:10.1029/2008GL036329.

Wang,S.,Gillies,R.,Takle,E.,andGutowskiJr.,W.(2009).EvaluationofPrecipitationintheIntermountainRegionasSimulatedbytheNARCCAPRegionalClimateModels.GeophysicalResearchLetters.36:L11704,doi:10.1029/2009GL037930.

Webb,R.,Pulwarty,R.,Davidson,M.,Shea,E.,Nierenberg,C.,andDole,R.(2009).ExperimentalClimateInformationServicesinSupportofRiskManagement.AmericanGeophysicalUnionFallMeetingAbstract,U13D‐05.

AppendixV.MediaCoverage

February24,2009ClimatechangecouldcreateUtahwaterchallenges,DailyHeraldhttp://heraldextra.com/news/state‐and‐regional/article_ccc70c71‐15c4‐519b‐8f33‐1fa2fc0dc4bd.htmlJoeBarsugli

February26,2009LasVegasRunningoutofWaterMeansDimmingLosAngelesLights,Bloomberg.comhttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a_b86mnWn9.w&refer=homeBradUdall

April20,2009Study:ShortageslikelyonColoradoRiverby2050,SanFranciscoChronicle

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http://www.sfgate.com/cgi‐bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2009/04/20/state/n145427D24.DTLBradUdall,JoeBarsugli

April21,2009Study:ShortagelikelyonColoradoRiverby2050,USATodayhttp://www.usatoday.com/weather/drought/2009‐04‐21‐colorado‐river‐shortages_N.htmBradUdall

April23,2009DustStormsEscalate,PromptingEnvironmentalFears:IncreaseinDirtAffectsEcosystemsinWesternStates,WashingtonPosthttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp‐dyn/content/article/2009/04/22/AR2009042203685.htmlTomPainter,JeffDeems

May1,2009ColoradoWaterCongress2009SummerConference,http://www.cowatercongress.org/SummerConference/speakersbios.aspxJoeBarsugli

May1,2009PeakOilPioneers,ASPO‐USAhttp://www.aspo‐usa.com/peak_oil_pioneers.cfmBradUdall

May7,2009FourCornersSummitonSustainableCities,ArizonaTechnologyCouncilhttp://www.aztechcouncil.org/cwt/External/WCPages/WCEvents/EventDetail.aspx?EventID=510BradUdall

May14,2009ClimateChange,WaterShortagesConspiretoCreate21stCenturyDustBowl,NewYorkTimeshttp://www.nytimes.com/gwire/2009/05/14/14greenwire‐climate‐change‐water‐shortages‐conspire‐to‐cre‐12208.html?pagewanted=allTomPainter,JeffDeems

May24,2009ColoradoDustStormsSpeedSnowmelt,LosAngelesTimeshttp://articles.latimes.com/2009/may/24/nation/na‐pink‐snow24TomPainter,JeffDeems

Spring2009WesternWaterPolicyProgram,Baselines:NewsletteroftheNaturalResourceLawCenter,UniversityofColoardohttp://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&ct=res&cd=2&ved=0CBAQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.colorado.edu%2Flaw%2Fcenters%2Fnrlc%2Flibrary%2FPublications%2FBaselineNewsletters%2F2009_Spring_NRLC_newsletter.pdf&ei=ALbhS8XkJpL‐MXl_a4D&usg=AFQjCNFWkwKWRYhJYVarBICnxBqD31afNQ&sig2=9pQpV‐D5tdvxbE8GrqqvhgDougKenney

May26,2009CIRESResearchersRecognizedforRoleinHistoricColoradoRiverShortageAgreement,CIRES,UniversityofColoradoNewsRoomhttp://cires.colorado.edu/news/press/2009/riverAgreement.htmlEdieZagona,BalajiRajagopalan,BradUdall

May30,2009HeatingupintheWest,AnchorageDailyNewshttp://www.adn.com/2008/04/01/361185/march‐31‐alaska‐ranger‐hearing.htmlBradUdall

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June1,2009PressReleaseNo.820,WorldMeteorologicalOrganizationhttp://www.wmo.ch/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/pr_820_en.htmlBalajiRajagopalan

June1,2009TheNorbertGerbier‐MIMMInternationalAwardCeremony,IndianInstituteofTropicalMeteorologyhttp://www.tropmet.res.in/static_page.php?page_id=107BalajiRajagopalan

June1,2009WaterBlitz,RockyMountainNationalParkContinentalDivideResearchLearningCenterhttp://www.nps.gov/romo/parkmgmt/upload/water‐blitz.pdfJamesMcCutchan,SuzanneVanDrunnick

June23,2009GlobalNewsDigest,Water21http://www.iwapublishing.com/template.cfm?name=gndjun2309BradUdall

July1,2009ManagementandwatersupplyontheColoradoRiver,UCARMagazinehttp://www2.ucar.edu/magazine/findings/management‐and‐water‐supply‐colorado‐riverBalaji,Rajagopalan,KenNowak,JoeBarsugli,BradUdall

July1,2009WesternWaterSuppliesThretentedbyClimateChange,Geology.comhttp://geology.com/press‐release/colorado‐river‐water‐supply/EdieZagona,BalajiRajagopalan,BradUdall

Summer2009MySphere:Howpeoplework,research,andrelaxatCIRES,CIRES,UniversityofColoradoNewsRoomhttp://cires.colorado.edu/science/spheres/water09/mySphere.htmlBradUdall

July20,2009FutureofWesternWaterSupplyThreatenedbyClimateChange,NASAEarthObservatoryhttp://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/view.php?id=39567Balaji,Rajagopalan,KenNowak,JoeBarsugli,BradUdall

July20,2009FutureofWesternWaterSupplyThreatenedbyClimateChange,SaysNewCU‐BoulderStudy,UniversityofColoradoOfficeofNewsServiceshttp://www.colorado.edu/news/r/f0f273435508fe6525e5e4903baa539b.htmlBalaji,Rajagopalan,KenNowak,JoeBarsugli,BradUdall

July21,2009ColoradoRiverReservoirsCouldBottomOut,TerraDailyhttp://www.terradaily.com/reports/Colorado_River_Reservoirs_Could_Bottom_Out_999.htmlEdieZagona,BalajiRajagopalan,BradUdall

July21,2009WaterSupplyRiskontheColoradoRiver:CanManagementMitigate?,ScienceDailyhttp://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/07/090720163555.htmBalaji,Rajagopalan,KenNowak,JoeBarsugli,BradUdall

July22,2009CUStudywarnsofScarceWater,DenverPost

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http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_12887585Balaji,Rajagopalan,KenNowak,JoeBarsugli,BradUdall

Fall2009WaterSupplyRiskontheColoradoRiver:CanManagementMitigate?,PublicRadioStationsinCO(KGNU,KCFRandKUNC)andNevada(KNPR)BalajiRajagopalan,KenNowak,JoeBarsugli,BradUdall

July22,2009EnergyandGlobalWarmingNewsforJuly22:WarmingColoradoRiverSystemFacesupto50%ChangeofFullyDepletingallReservoirStorageby2050,ClimateProgresshttp://climateprogress.org/2009/07/22/energy‐and‐global‐warming‐news‐colorado‐river‐reservoirs‐nissan‐investing‐billions‐retool‐tennessee‐factory‐electric‐hybrid‐cars/Balaji,Rajagopalan,KenNowak,JoeBarsugli,BradUdall

July22,2009StudyConcludesColoradoRiverReservoirsCouldBottomOutfromWarming,WaterManagementBusiness‐as‐Usual,GreenCarCongresshttp://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/07/study‐concludes‐colorado‐river‐reservoirs‐could‐bottom‐out‐from‐warming‐water‐management‐businessasu.htmlBalajiRajagopalan,KenNowak

July22,2009Study:ColoradoRiverWaterSuuplySafeThrough2026,LasVegasSunhttp://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2009/jul/22/study‐colorado‐river‐water‐supply‐safe‐through‐202/BalajiRajagopalan,KenNowak

July23,2009ColoradoRiverReservoirsRunningDry,TheDailyGreenhttp://www.thedailygreen.com/environmental‐news/latest/colorado‐river‐47021303Balaji,Rajagopalan,KenNowak,JoeBarsugli,BradUdall

July24,2009ThreatstoColoradoRiverWaterSupply,ClimateWatchhttp://blogs.kqed.org/climatewatch/2009/07/24/colorado‐river‐water‐supply‐threatened‐after‐2026‐study‐says/Balaji,Rajagopalan,KenNowak,JoeBarsugli,BradUdall

July28,2009ColoradoRiverRunningonEmptyby2050,GuardianEnvironmentNetworkhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jul/28/network‐usaBalajiRajagopalan,KenNowak

August11,2009Blitz'totestwaterathundredsoflocationsinRockyMountainNationalPark,RockyMountainNewshttp://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/aug/11/blitz‐test‐water‐hundreds‐locations‐rocky‐mountain/JamesMcCutchan,SuzanneVanDrunnick

August19,2009WaterBlitzTestingatRockyMountainNationalPark,YouTubehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sMOJlaPcDgJamesMcCutchan,SuzanneVanDrunnick

August20,2009Hundreds'blitz'RockyMountainNationalParktocollectwater,ColoradoDailyhttp://www.coloradodaily.com/cu‐boulder/ci_13165255#axzz0myc7Go00JamesMcCutchan,SuzanneVanDrunnick

AnnualReport

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August26,2009Water‐useSaga:TheReturnofGlenCanyon,ChristianScienceMonitorhttp://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&ct=res&cd=29&ved=0CCoQFjAIOBQ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.glencanyon.org%2Fpress%2FPDF%2F20090826‐CSM.pdf&ei=r7HhS6eMIYraNoO_uKMD&usg=AFQjCNFSO66Ean‐OnWKDdQ2jrtRhJ_hwpg&sig2=vMggMV11Y0bWTBMnKpjoZgBalajiRajagopalan

September21,2009FirstsnowatCopper‐whatwillthewinterbring?,CopperSummitCountyCitizensVoicehttp://coppercoloradocondos.com/2009/09/21/first‐snow‐at‐copper‐what‐will‐the‐winter‐bring/KlausWolter

September22,2009SnowblanketsSummitCountyPeaks,SummitDailyNewsKlausWolter

Fall2009WesternWaterOutlook:Grim,ESRLQuarterlyhttp://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&ct=res&cd=1&ved=0CBQQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.esrl.noaa.gov%2Fnews%2Fquarterly%2Ffall2009%2F&ei=Cw7jS83iLY_WNurJ‐a8D&usg=AFQjCNGvFjLTSy042aYQAdj_e5apDUwTSg&sig2=lWIaBFywxdzHNfD9LwVskgBalaji,Rajagopalan,KenNowak,JoeBarsugli,BradUdall

September23,2009Forecasters:EarlyColo.Snownopredictor,UPI.comhttp://www.upi.com/Top_News/2009/09/23/Forecasters‐Early‐Colo‐snow‐no‐predictor/UPI‐30101253727347/KlausWolter

October5,2009ElNinoCouldAffectColorado'sWeatherThisWinter,UniversityofColoradoNewsCenterhttp://www.colorado.edu/news/broadcast/KlausWolter

October6,2009informingWaterResourceDecisionMakersforClimateChangeAdaptationPolicy,NOAAHydrometeorologyTestbedhttp://hmt.noaa.gov/news/2008/BradUdall

October15,2009Winterforecast:WarmerWest,North'coolerSouth,AssoicatedPresshttp://www.physorg.com/news174838595.htmlKlausWolter

October28,2009StormPredictions‐shortadlong,ColoradoSpringsGazettehttp://outthere.freedomblogging.com/category/snow/KlausWolter

November1,2009SnowBusiness,5280http://www.5280.com/issues/2009/0911/feature.php?pageID=1970KlausWolter

November4,2009StrengtheningElNinoTriggersCautiousOptimistforaWetterWinter,ThePress‐Enterprisehttp://www.pe.com/localnews/environment/stories/PE_News_Local_S_wateryear04.4bcfa45.htmlKlausWolter

AnnualReport

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November5,2009WhenWillLakeMeadGoDry?,ClimateWatchhttp://blogs.kqed.org/climatewatch/tag/lake‐mead/Balaji,Rajagopalan,KenNowak,JoeBarsugli,BradUdall

December1,2009CUPeople‐December2009,Coloradanhttp://www.coloradanmagazine.org/2009/12/01/cu‐people‐december‐2009/BradUdall

December10,2009SurveyrevealsdetailsofclimateactionintheWest,LincolnInstituteofLandPolicyPressReleasehttp://atlincolnhouse.typepad.com/pressroom/2009/12/index.htmlBradUdall

December27,2009Tighter,CostlierWaterShiftingFocustoCurbingDemand,ArizonaRepublicBradUdall

2009 annual report of the western water assessment · 2009 calendar year (january 1 2009 to...

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not yet endorsed as a correct record - nhsggc

kanga, z 2014, ‘not music yet: graphic notation as a

publishedsee wilkinson and agee dissenting op. at 6. yet, as...

psi chi/ psa october 21, 2009. emails no one should have...