2009 annual report of the western water assessment · 2009 calendar year (january 1 2009 to...
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2009AnnualReportoftheWesternWaterAssessment
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TableofContents
WesternWaterAssessment ....................................................................................................3
MajorHighlightsfrom2009.....................................................................................................3“DealingwithDrought:AdaptingtoaChangingClimate”WorkshopSeries ............................. 3http://treeflow.info:AResourceforPaleohydrologicData....................................................... 4EcosystemManagement:NetworkExpansion...........................................................................5
ProjectSummaries ..................................................................................................................5DecisionSupportfortheColoradoRiverBasinandHeadwaters...............................................5EcologicalVulnerabilities,Impacts,andAdaptation ................................................................ 14EmergingInitiativesandAdaptationStrategiestoInformClimateServices.............................. 3CoreActivities ..........................................................................................................................26
LookingAhead ......................................................................................................................31
AppendixI.PersonnelandStakeholders ....................................................................................................32
AppendixII.Presentations .........................................................................................................................37
AppendixIII.Awards...................................................................................................................................46
AppendixIV.Publications...........................................................................................................................46
AppendixV.MediaCoverage .................................................................................................................... 48
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WesternWaterAssessment
Usingmultidisciplinaryteamsofexpertsinclimate,water,law,andeconomics,theWesternWaterAssessmentworkswithdecision‐makersacrosstheIntermountainWesttoproduceusefulinformationaboutnaturalclimatevariabilityandchange.IntheWest,manyoftheimpactsofclimatechangewillbedeliveredthroughchangesinthehydrologiccyclethathaveandwillcontinuetoaffectourwaterresources.Asaconsequence,sinceitsinception10yearsago,theWWAhasfocusedonbuildingrelationshipsandnetworkswithwater‐resourcedecision‐makers,andhassubsequentlyusedtheseinteractionstodeveloppracticalresearchprogramsandusefulinformationalproducts.ThesuccessesoftheWWAmodelofstakeholder‐drivenresearchprogramsaredemonstratedbytheprojectsummarieshighlightedinthisreport.
The mission of the WWA is to identify and characterize regional vulnerabilities to andimpacts of climate variability and change, and to develop information, products andprocessestoassistdecisionmakersthroughouttheIntermountainWest.
In2008,WWArevieweditsresearchscopethroughinteractionswithstakeholders,ouradvisoryboard,andfederalpartners.Asaresult,WWAformedthreefocusedresearchthemes.Beginningin2009,theWWArefocuseditsresearchanddecision‐supportproducts;allWWAprojectsfallwithinthreemajorthematiccategories:(1)DecisionSupportfortheColoradoRiverBasinandHeadwaters;(2)EcologicalVulnerabilities,Impacts,andAdaptation,and(3)EmergingInitiativesandAdaptationStrategiestoInformClimateServices.Althoughindividualprojectsarealignedwithinspecificthemesformanagementpurposes,thereissignificantoverlapbetweenandamongprojectswithinthesethemes.Thecoremanagementteamisresponsibleforidentifyingandcoordinatingthesecross‐cuttingprojects.
ActivitieswithineachthemefortheJuly12009–June302010yearwereselectedthroughaninternalcompetitionandareoutlinedintheStatementofWorksubmittedlastyeartoNOAA.ThisAnnualReportcoversallworkfundedbyWWAandactivitiesofourcoreresearchteamduringthe2009calendaryear(January12009toDecember312009).Assuch,manyoftheproposedactivitiesherearenotyetcompleteasseveralmonthsremaininthefundingperiod.
MajorHighlightsfrom2009
Asinthepast,2009wasanexcitingyearfortheWWAresearchteam.Ourprojectsandoutreacheffortswerewellreceivedbyourstakeholdercommunity,andseveralmajorendeavorsemergedasparticularlyimportantefforts.
“DealingwithDrought:AdaptingtoaChangingClimate”WorkshopSeries
InconjunctionwiththeColoradoWaterConservationBoard(CWCB),WWApresentedthe“DealingwithDrought–AdaptingtoaChangingClimate”workshopseriesduringOctober2009inthreelocationsaroundColorado:CastleRock,GlenwoodSprings,andDurango.TheseworkshopsbuiltonthemesandinformationfromboththeWWA‐CWCBClimateChangeinColoradoreport(2008)andtheOctober2008ColoradoGovernor’sConferenceonManagingDroughtandClimateRisk.TheWWA,CWCB,andthe
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NationalIntegratedDroughtInformationSystem(NIDIS),alongwiththeColoradoStateUniversityColoradoClimateCenter(CCC)andtheMountainStudiesInstitutesponsoredthisseriesofworkshops.The80participantsrepresenteddiversesectorsandinterestsaffectedbydroughtandclimate,includingwaterresourcemanagement,agriculture,land‐useplanning,forest&rangemanagement,watershedprotection,environmentalorganizations,andtourism&recreation.Collectively,theparticipants’decision‐makingaffectsnaturalresourcesineveryriverbasininColorado.
Theprimaryobjectivesoftheseworkshopsweretoimprovetheclimateliteracyoftheparticipants,provideinputintotheongoingupdateofthestateDroughtplan,documentparticipants’understandingofclimatechangeinColorado,andaddressconcernsandquestionsamongthisgroupofstakeholdersaboutclimatechange.Theworkshopobjectiveswereachievedthroughpre‐andpost‐workshopevaluations,instructionalpresentations,breakoutdiscussions,andthedistributionofclimateanddroughtinformationinprintedform.
ThedetailsofourobservationsandresultsoftheevaluationsarediscussedfurtherinawhitepaperavailableontheWWAwebsite(workshopreport).Thefullsetofpresentationsandmaterialsprovidedattheworkshopsareavailableathttp://wwa.colorado.edu/climate_change/drought09.html.
TreeFlow(http://treeflow.info):AResourceforPaleohydrologicData
Paleohydrologicdataandinformationfromtreeringsareincreasinglyrecognizedasavaluabletoolfordroughtplanningandwaterresourcesmanagement.Therecentsevereandprolongeddroughtandagrowingawarenessoftheregionalimpactsofglobalclimatechange,coupledwithanincreasedindemandforwaterthatfarexceedsdemandsduringthe1950sdrought,havemadewatermanagersinthewesternU.S.realizetheneedfornewtoolsfordroughtplanningandwatermanagement.Thedevelopmentofhigh‐qualitytree‐ringbasedreconstructionsofstreamflowforagrowingnumberofwesternrivershascoincidedwiththisrealization.Informationfromthepaleorecordcombinedwithfutureprojectionsmayyieldthemostlikelyrangeoffuturescenariosforplanningpurposes.Tomeetthegrowingdemandbyresourcemanagersforaclearinghouseofsuchinformation,WWA,incollaborationwithresearchersfromtheClimateAssessmentforthe
Southwest(CLIMAS),developedawebportaltoaccesspaleorecords.
Thenew,expandedTreeFlowwebresource(http://treeflow.info)wentliveforreviewinlateJune2009andwaspubliclyannouncedtostakeholdersinSeptember2009.Thetop‐levelsectionsofthesiteinclude:(1)basin‐basedaccesstopaleohydrologydataforover60gagesacrossthewesternUS;(2)backgroundinformationontree‐ringdataandhowthestreamflowreconstructionsaredeveloped;(3)descriptionsofseveralcurrent
applicationsofthedatatowatermanagement;(4)agendas,presentations,andreportsfrom13tree‐ringworkshopsfrom2006to2009;and(5)amulti‐pagefeature,ColoradoRiverStreamflow:APaleoPerspective.Thesitealsoincludesafullytext‐annotatedPowerPointpresentationdescribingthegenerationofpaleohydrologydataandtheiruseinwaterresourcemanagement(http://treeflow.info/docs/treeflow_reconstructions&applications_annotated.ppt).
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EcosystemManagement:NetworkExpansion
In2009,WWAinitiatedtheEcologicalVulnerabilities,Impacts,andAdaptationresearchtheme.Throughthreenewresearchprojectswithinthattheme,WWAgainedvisibilityandcredibilitywithecosystemstakeholders,expandingWWA’soverallstakeholdernetwork,andlaidthegroundworkforfuturecollaborativeresearchonclimate‐ecosystemvulnerabilities.
The“Forests,Climate,andChange”projectentailedsignificantoutreachtostakeholdersandscientiststhatallowedWWAtoassessitsappropriateroleinaidingdecision‐makersfacingtheclimate‐drivenmountainpinebeetle(MPB)epidemicinColoradoandsouthernWyoming.Projectaccomplishmentsin2009includedhostingascience‐stakeholdermeetingtofacilitateconnections,conveythestateofthescienceonMPBimpacts,andidentifyopportunitiesforco‐producingdecision‐supportinformation.KeyecosystemstakeholdersintheregionthatparticipatedinthemeetingincludedtheU.S.ForestService,BureauofLandManagement,BoulderCountyParksandOpenSpace,OurFutureSummit,andtheofficeofU.S.Sen.MarkUdall.
TwootherWWAprojectsengageddirectlywithfederalecosystemmanagementagenciestoaddressclimatevulnerabilitiesspecifictotheirresources.Fortheproject,“EffectsofMountainPineBeetleonWaterQualityinColorado”,WWAworkedwiththeNationalParkServicetoassesswaterqualityat200siteswithinandaroundRockyMountainNationalPark.Theseeffortsfocusedondetectingchangesinnutrientloadsandevidenceofpesticideuseinmountainstreams.For“ClimateChangeImpactsonPublicLandsintheUpperColoradoRiverBasin”,WWAworkedincollaborationwiththeBureauofLandManagementtoexamineclimatevulnerabilityandresilienceinpinyon‐juniperwoodlandsofsouthwesternColorado.Theresultsindicatethatsoiltypemaybeasignificantdriveroflandscaperesponsetodroughtinthatparticularregion.
ProjectSummaries
TheprojectsummariesinTable1,2&3provideabriefoverviewofspecificresearchprojectsfundedin2009.
DecisionSupportfortheColoradoRiverBasinandHeadwaters
Table1.
ProjectTitle: StochasticStreamflowSimulationatInterannualandInterdecadalTimeScalesandImplicationstoWaterResourcesManagementintheColoradoRiverBasin
PrimaryInvestigator(s): E.Zagona,R.Balaji
Contributors: K.Nowak,C.Bracken,C.Jerla,R.Callejo,J.Prairie
CoreFunding: WWA,USBR,CADSWESFUNDING2009:JAN–DEC
Summary: TheUSBureauofReclamationwishestobetterunderstandtheclimatedriverstostreamflowvariabilityasatoolforbetterwatermanagement.Thereisincreasingevidencethattheinterannual(year‐to‐year)variationsinthewesternUShydro‐climatearedrivenbylarge‐scaleclimatefeaturessuchasENSO,PDO,AMO,etc.andthatthecurrentrecorddryspellcouldbearesultofcoolerthannormaltropicalEasternPacificandwarmerthannormaltropicalWesternPacific(aLaNinapattern)andIndianOceans.RecentstudiessuggestthattheannualcycleinprecipitationisshiftingearlierinthewesternUS,perhapscausedbyglobalclimatechange.Thereisthepotentialforsubstantialreductioninstreamflowincomingdecadesduetoclimatechange,whichwillhaveasignificantimpactonthewaterresourcesinthebasinandalsoonthesocioeconomichealthofthewesternUS.Tomanagethewaterresourcesefficiently,realisticscenariosofstreamflowsatshort(interannual)andlong(interdecadal)timescalesarecrucial.Thisresearchwillimprovetechniquesforbothseasonalforecastingandlong‐term
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projectionsaswellasinvestigateadaptationstrategiesforreservoirmanagement.
ProposedWork: Theprojectwillaccomplishtheseviathefollowingtasks:
Developmethodsforprojectingstreamflowsatinterdecadaltimescalesbasedon(i)historicalrecord,(ii)paleodataand(iii)climatechangeprojectionsusingfrequencyanalysisandglobalclimatevariables.
ApplytheseprojectionstoevaluatetherobustnessofcurrentoperatingpoliciesasexpressedintheCRSSbasinwaterplanningmodel,includingthenewshortagepoliciesrecentlyagreedto,withrespecttohydrologicvariabilityreflectedinhistoricflows,thepaleorecord,andclimatechangeprojections.Explorewhatpolicyoptionsareavailabletomitigateimpactsofpotentialadverseflowscenarioswithintheinterimguidelinesthrough2026andwithnewpolicyalternativesthereafter.
Developasetofpredictorsforspringflowvolume/shapeinUpperBasinbyidentifyingrelationshipsbetweenseasonalstreamflowsandlarge‐scaleclimatevariables(globalseasurfacetemperatures,sealevelpressures,windsfeatures,etc.)usingnonparametricmulti‐modelregressiontechniques,previouslysuccessfullyappliedinotherbasins.
Developaprobabilisticmidtermoperationsmodelthatincorporatescurrentoperatingpolicies.ThiswillbedoneincollaborationwiththeReclamationColoradoRiverTechnicalModelingTeamandriversystemoperations.ThismodelwilleventuallybeusedaspartofReclamation’sbusinessprocessesforseasonalforecastswithstakeholders.
Themidtermoperationsmodelwillbeusedtodetermineskillsinthesystemoperatingvariablesandpotentialalternative(adaptive)policieswillbeidentifiedthatcanimprovesystemefficiency.Theproposedpolicieswillbetestedwiththehistorichydrology.
Progress/Results: InterannualScale
Theuseofnaturalflowforecastsintheprobabilisticmidtermmodelisalong‐termgoalfortheinterannualcomponentofthisproject.ThesevalueswilleventuallybeobtainedfromtheRiverForecastCenter.InanefforttolaysomegroundworkinthisareaC.BrackenperformedacomprehensiveanalysisofReclamationsandtheRFC’snaturalflows.ThisanalysisledtoameetingwiththeRFCafterwhichwehaveamuchbetterunderstandingofmagnitudeofsuchaneffortandwhatmustbedoneinthenearfuturetomoveforwardwiththePMM.
BrackenspenttimebecomingfamiliarwithusingRiverWareandcurrentRiverWaremodels(particularlythe24MonthStudy).Theseskillswereusedtowritethefirstsetofoperationalrules(andaccompanyingdocumentation)inthePMMfortheFontenelleReservoir.TheserulesweredevelopedincollaborationwithReclamationoperatorK.Grantz.Asimilarmethodologywillbeappliedtotheremaining24MonthStudyreservoirs.WorkiscurrentlyunderwayontheFlamingGorgeReservoir.
Inaddition,BrackenreversedtheruleorderintheExpanded24MonthStudymodel.Theoriginalruleordering(1,2,3,…)hadpersistedforlegacyreasons.Theupdatedordering(…,3,2,1)willfacilitatethedevelopmentofnewrulesetsinthePMM.
InterdecadalScale
WehavedevelopedamethodthatdirectlysimulatesdailydataatmultiplelocationsfromasingleannualflowvalueviaK‐NNresamplingofdailyflowproportionvectors.Theprocedureissimple,datadrivenandcapturesobservedstatisticsquitewell.Furthermore,thegenerateddailydataarecontinuousanddisplaylagcorrelationstructureconsistentwiththatoftheobserveddata.Inaddition,themethodiscompatiblewithanystreamflowgenerationtechnique(e.g.AR‐1,K‐NN,ISM,etc.)andisnotlimitedtoaspecifictimescale(resultswereverygoodformonthlyandseasonaldisaggregationinadditiontodaily).Presently,wehaveresubmittedthemanuscriptentitled“ANon‐parametricStochasticApproachforMultisiteDisaggregationofAnnualtoDailyStreamflow”toWaterResourcesResearchafterrespondingtoreviewercomments.
Intherealmofstochasticsimulation,wehavecontinuedworkingwiththewaveletframeworkofKwonetal.(2007)withapplicationtotheentireupperColoradoRiverBasinbydisaggregatingthesimulatedflowsusingtheaforementioneddisaggregationmethod.Wefindthatthisapproachcancapturethespectralpropertiesofdataatthemultiplesitesalongwiththedistributionalproperties(suchasmean,variance,ProbabilityDensityFunctionsetc.).Consequently,thedroughtandsurplusstatisticsareverywellcaptured.
Furthermore,wehaveusedsimilarwaveletmethodstoanalyzethedominantvariancepeaksfrompaleo‐reconstructedstreamflowdatainordertobetterunderstandlonger‐termvariability.Theseresultsshowthatthestrengthofpersistentmodesofvariabilitycanoscillatewithtime.Oneexampleisdecadal‐scalevariability,whichhasbeenquitestronginrecentyearsbutwassubduedintheearly1900’s.Assuch,wehavefurthermodifiedthemethodofKwonetal.(2007)tocapturethenonstationarityofvariancestrengthinthesimulatedtraces.
Asacomplimenttothewavelet‐basedanalysisandsimulation,wehavealsoconductedaPrincipalComponentAnalysis(PCA)ofthenaturalflowrecordforall29locationsintheColoradoRiverBasin.Thiswillaidinidentifyinglarge‐scaledriversofvariancethroughouttheBasin.Theleading2principalcomponents(PCs)explainnearly85%ofthetotalvariance.WehaveshownthatalllocationsarerelatedtoPC1similarly,whilePC2isdividedroughlyintotheupperandlowerbasins.Assuch,wehypothesizethatPC1islikelytiedtocontinentscalecirculation,whichaffectstheentirebasin,whilePC2maybelinkedtoaphenomenasuchasENSO,wherethe
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impactismoreregionalandisdependantontheclimaticmode.
Presentations: OnNovember19,2009,KenNowakattendedtheColoradoRiverForecastingService'sFallTechnicalMeetingatNOAA'sSaltLakeCityriverforecastcenterandgaveapresentationentitled,"WaterSupplyRiskontheColoradoRiver:CanManagementMitigate?"
OnOctober5,2009,KenNowakgaveapresentation,entitled"ResearchUpdate,"attheColoradoRiverHydrologyWorkGroupmeetingheldatCADSWESinBoulder,CO.
OnDecember2,2009,CameronBrackengaveapresentationattheSaltLakeCityRiverForecastCenterentitled“AMulti‐SiteSeasonalEnsembleStreamflowForecastingTechnique.”
OnOctober5,2009,CameronBrackengaveapresentationtotheColoradoRiverHydrologyWorkingGroupmeetingatCADSWESinBoulder,CO
Publications: Bracken,C.,B.Rajagopalan,andJ.Prairie,AMulti‐SiteSeasonalEnsembleStreamflowForecastingTechnique,WaterResour.Res.,doi:10.1029/2009WR007965,inpress.(Accepted2November2009)
Partners/Stakeholders USBR
ProjectTitle: HistoricalandPotentialFutureChangesinTemporalPrecipitationVariabilityintheColoradoRiverBasin
PrimaryInvestigator(s): G.Guentchev
Contributors: J.Eischeid,J.Barsugli,D.Raff,L.Brekke
CoreFunding: UCAR,CLIVAR,CPAPP,USBR,SNWA,WWAFUNDING2009:JAN–DEC
Summary: ThisprojectisfocusedonassessingthehistoricalcharacteristicsandthepotentialfuturechangesinprecipitationvariabilitythroughouttheColoradoRiverBasin.Threegriddeddatasetsderivedfromprecipitationobservationsareusedinthisanalysis:theMaureretal.(2002)dataset,theHamletandLettenmaier(2005)dataset,andthePRISMdataset(Dalyetal.1994,1997).Inaddition,theprojectionsofasetofabout30CMIP3GCMrunsareutilizedinthisproject.AsaninitialstepthehomogeneityoftheobservedgriddeddatasetswasevaluatedusingthemethodologyproposedbyWijngaardetal.(2003).Next,asetofvariabilitymeasureswaschosentorepresentthehistorical(1951‐1999)andprojectedfuturetemporalprecipitationvariability.Thesemeasureswereutilizedtoassessthedifferencesbetweenthemodelsimulatedandtheobservedprecipitationvariabilityforthehistoricalperiod.Thesedifferencesindicatehowskillfullythemodelsrepresenttheobservedprecipitationvariability.
ProposedWork: ThefinalstageofthisprojectistoevaluatethepotentialfutureprecipitationvariabilitychangesintheColoradoRiverBasinbasedontheA2,B1,andA1BprojectionsfromthesamesetofGCMruns.
Progress/Results: ThestatisticalsignificanceoftheModelminusObservedprecipitationvariabilitymeasures(assessedusinga“moving”blockbootstrappingapproach;Wilks1997)forthehistorical1951‐1999periodwascompletedandtheresultswerepresentedatapostersessionattheAGUFallmeetinginSanFranciscoandalsoattheColoradoRiverHydrologyGroupmeetingonOctober5th,2009atCADSWESBoulderCO.
Inaddition,themajorityoftheworkregardingthestatisticalsignificanceoftheFutureModelminusHistoricalModelprecipitationvariabilitydifferenceswascompletedduringthese6months.Threeperiodsofinterestareusedforthefuturechanges:2001‐2049,2026‐2074and2051‐2099.TwosetsofdownscaledGCMdatafor30projections(downscaledbyBrekkeetal.2007,andbyJonEischeid)and3SRESscenarios(A2,B1andA1b)areutilizedinthesefutureperiodcomparisons.
Presentations: Guentchev,G.,Barsugli,J.Eischeid,J.,Raff,D.,andBrekke,L.“HowwelldotheGCMsreplicatethehistoricalprecipitationvariabilityintheColoradoRiverBasin?”,December14th,2009,SanFrancisco,AGUFallmeeting,postersession.
Guetchenev,G.(October2009)“Statisticalsignificanceofthemodel‐observeddifferencesinprecipitationvariabilityforthehistorical1951‐1999period”,October5‐6,2009,ColoradoRiverHydrologyGroupmeeting,Boulder,CO.
Partners/Stakeholders USBR,SNWA
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ProjectTitle: IdentifyingLessonsfromtheMurray‐DarlingBasinPotentiallyApplicabletotheColoradoRiver
PrimaryInvestigator(s): D.Kenney
Contributors: R.Pulwarty
CoreFunding: WWA,NIDISFUNDING20009:JULY–DEC
Summary: AsclimaticandhydrologicinformationregardingtheColoradoRivercontinuestoimprove,itbecomesincreasinglyapparentthatthecurrentinstitutionalstructureinthebasinconstrainsdecision‐makersinhowtheyusethisnewinformationandhowtheycanadapttothechallengesofclimatevariabilityandchange.Inthespiritofidentifyingpotential“newinstitutionalpathways,”theMurray‐DarlingBasin(MDB)(Australia)experiencemayprovideinsightfultodecision‐makersintheColoradoBasin,asseveralfundamentalcomponentsoftheinstitutionalenvironmentintheMDBhavebeensuccessfullymodifiedovertime,mostrecentlydrivenbytheneedtoadapttoa“climateshift”andadesiretoimplementmoresustainablepatternsofwatermanagement.
ProposedWork: SeveralelementsoftheMDBinstitutionalenvironmentarepotentiallyrelevantasabasisforcomparisonandinsight,including:theuseofbasinwideplanningprocessesand/orriverbasincommissions;therelationshipbetweenStatesandthenational(federal)government(especiallyasitinvolvesdecisionsaboutinterstateallocation);thespecificationofwaterrights/entitlementsamongusers,sectors,andjurisdictions(includingindigenous/nativecommunities)atboththeinterstateandsub‐statescale;theuse(andlimits)ofmarketsforwaterreallocation;themechanismsusedtoensureadequateflowsforenvironmentalpurposes;theroleofthegovernmentissupporting/shapingtheroleoftheagriculturalsector(bothhistoricallyandlookingforward);andtherolesofkeyclimateinformationproviders.Inthisproject,theseelementsoftheMDBinstitutionwillbereviewedandcomparedtotheColoradoRiverBasin,withtheaimofidentifyingtransferrablelessons.
Progress/Results: Researchtodatehasprimarilyfocusedontherelationshipbetweenthebasinplan(andrelatedelementsofAustralia’snewWaterAct)totheevolvingstructureofstate‐federalrelationsinthatcountry.ItisthiselementofAustralia’sreformsthatmayultimatelybemostsalienttotheColoradoRiver,asapersistentchallengeintheColoradoisthepromotionofrealbasin‐wideplanningandactionwithinaframeworkofstate‐centricwaterallocations/rights.Thisissuehasbeeninvestigatedthroughliterature,interviews(includingavisittoBoulderbyDanielConnellorganizedbypartnersatTheNatureConservancy),ongoingconsultationswiththeAssistantDirectoroftheMurray‐DarlingBasinAuthority,andbyattendanceatameetingatNorthernArizonaUniversityinJulyentitled:“WatershedManagementandPolicyDevelopment:LearningfromAustralia.”Ultimately,thegoalofthisprojectistousethesweepingreformsintheMurray‐DarlingBasinasamechanismforstimulatingandbroadeningdiscussionsabouttheprospectsforinstitutionalreformandclimatechangeadaptationintheColoradoRiverBasin.Thisisnowoccurring,asevidencedbythesuccessfuleffortsoftheWWAandtheNRLC(NaturalResourcesLawCenter)tosecurefundingfromtheWaltonFamilyFoundationtosupportaColoradoRiverGovernanceInitiative,whichisnowexaminingasuiteofpossibleinstitutionalreformsontheriver.TheMurray‐Darlingcaseisoneofthefeaturedreformoptionsunderconsideration.
Partners/Stakeholders NIDIS
ProjectTitle: ReconcilingColoradoRiverFlowProjections
PrimaryInvestigator(s): D.Cayan,T.Das,D.Lettenmaier,J.Overpeck,H.Hartmann,R.Webb,M.Hoerling,B.Udall
Contributors: J.Barsugli,J.Eischeid
CoreFunding: NOAACPOCross‐RISAFUNDING2009:JAN–DEC
Summary: Millyetal.(2008)arguethatstationarity,aconceptthatisattheheartofmostwaterresourcesoperationsandplanningmethods,“isdead”.Theimplicitassumptionassociatedwithstationarityisthatthepastisareasonablerepresentationofthefuture(atleastinastatisticalsense),andthereforerisksofunfavorableoutcomes(e.g.,inabilitytomeetdemandsforwater)canbeestimatedbymethodsthatresamplefrompastobservations,e.g.,ofclimateand/orstreamflow.VariationsofsuchapproacheshavebeenwidelyusedinwaterplanningstudiesfortheColoradoRiverbasin.Ontheotherhand,recentpapersbySeageretal.(2007),ChristensenandLettenmaier(2007),andMillyetal.(2005)(hereafterS2007;CL2007;andM2005,respectively)havesuggestedthatsubstantialchangesinrunoffmayoccuroverthenextcenturyintheColoradoRiverBasin.However,therangeofestimatedimpactsonColoradoRiverdischarge(allbasedonIPCC2007modelruns)islarge–fromalowat2050ofabout6%inCL2007,toover18%inS2007.Notsurprisingly,theregion’swatermanagersviewwithgreatconcernthepotentialforlargechangesintheflowoftheColoradoRiver.Ofevengreaterconcern,though,has
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beenthewiderangeofprojections–aslargeas45%inHoerlingandEischeid(2007)bymidcentury.to1901‐1970,interpolatedtoUSGSwaterresourcesregions.ResultsarereplottedfromM2005;takenfromBacklundetal(2008).
ProposedWork: Evaluatealternativedatasets;extendtocurrentyearandqualitycontrol.
Diagnosereasonsfordifferencesintemperaturesensitivitiesamongmodels.
Reconciliationofclimatescenarios.
EvaluateColoradoRiverdischargesensitivitiesfromNARCCAPruns.
Continueddiagnosisoftheroleofhighelevationfeedbackonprojectedfuturesensitivities.
PreliminaryanalysisofAR5GCMscenarios.
(Seeoriginalproposalforadditionaldetails.)
Progress/Results: Althoughseveralpapersdirectlyrelatedtothisworkhavebeenpublishedthisyear,thefinalstepsofworkonthisprojecthavenotyetbeencompleted.Completionisexpectedinthecomingsixmonthsandresultswillbereportedinsubsequentyears.
Deliverables: StakeholderMeeting
Technicalandstakeholderpapers
Publications: Barsugli,J.,K.Nowak,etal.(2009).Commenton‘WhenWillLakeMeadGoDry?’WaterResourcesResearch45(W09601).
Rajagopalan,B.,K.Nowak,J.Prairie,M.Hoerling,B.Harding,J.Barsugli,A.Ray,andB.Udall(2009),WatersupplyriskontheColoradoRiver:Canmanagementmitigate?,WaterResour.Res.,45,W08201,doi:10.1029/2008WR007652.
Partners/Stakeholders InadditiontheparticipatingRISAgroups,theprojectincludesrepresentativesfromOI/USBR&USGS,USDA/NRCS,NOAA/GFDL,SevenBasinStates,WGA,andNOAA/CPO/CDEPfundedARCs.StakeholdersincludeawatermanagersfromtheBureauofReclamation(Powell,Mead)andStategovernmentsofUtah,Wyoming,andColorado,urban/localwatersupplymanagers(Denver,SaltLakeCity,NorthernColoradoWaterConservancyDistrict),andecosystems/environmental/recreationalresourcemanagers(ForestService,EPA,NPS,USGS/BRD,NGOs).
ProjectTitle: ColoradoRiverinflowsbetweenLakesMeadandPowell:Past,PresentandFuture
PrimaryInvestigator(s): J.Barsugli
CoreFunding: WWAFUNDING2009:JULY–DEC
Summary: Itisestimatedthatover800,000acre‐feetayearofwaterflowsintotheColoradoRiverbetweenGlenCanyonDamandHooverDam.TheseflowsarenotnearlyaswellknownastheflowatLeesFerry.Forexample,inwritingourcritiqueofBarnettandPierce’s“WhenWillLakeMeadGoDry?”,wediscoveredthattheycompletelyignoredtheseinflowsintheirwaterbalancecalculations.Evenforthosewhoareawareoftheseflows,theirmagnitudecanbeindispute.Arefereeofourmanuscriptcalledintoquestionourestimate,citingpublicinformationavailableontheWeb.
Duetoincreasingdemandandpotentiallydecreasingheadwatersflows,theseflowscan“makeorbreak”thewaterbudgetoftheLowerColorado.IncontrasttotheColoradoHeadwaters,climatemodelsshowconsistentdryinginthisregion,sotheseflowsmaybeparticularlyvulnerabletoclimatechange.Othersareinterestedintheseflowsforanumberofreasons.TheCBRFC(GregSmith)hasindependentlyinvestigatedisworkingwithReclamationtoreconciletheirmodelingassumptionsonthisstretchoftheriver.TheUSGS(TedMelis)isalsointerestedinsharinginformationontheseflows.
ProposedWork: Iproposetocoordinateaworkshopthatfocusesonthewatersupplyaspectoftheseflowsandthatbringstogetherscientistsworkingonthisissuewiththegoalofreconcilingthedataandmodelingassumptionsusedtoestimatethehistoricflows,andtodiscussthepotentialforclimatechangeimpacts.Thegoaloftheworkshopistoleadtoapublicationthatsummarizesthestateofknowledgeontheseflowssothatthisinformation.Inadditiontocoordinating,Iwouldliketoresearchtherelationofhistoricalclimatevariabilitytotheobservedflows.Thisseemslikesomethingwecouldnaildownfairlyquickly–atleastthepresentstateofthedataandmodelingassumptions.
Progress/Results: Workonthisprojectwasdelayedduetoemerginghigh‐priorityactivitiesrequiringJ.Barsugli’sinvolvement.This
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projectwillproceedin2010underano‐costextensionandresultswillbereportedinsubsequentyears.
Partners/Stakeholders USBR
ProjectTitle: ImpactsofcoupledclimatechangeanddustdepositiononwaterresourcesintheColoradoRiverBasin
PrimaryInvestigator(s): T.Painter,J.Deems
CoreFunding: WWA,NSIDCFUNDING2009:JULY–DEC
Summary: RecentresultshaveshownthatdesertdustdepositiononmountainsnowpackintheColoradoRiverBasin(CRB)shortenssnowcoverdurationbyapproximatelyonemonththroughitsenhancementofabsorbedsolarradiation(Painteretal.,2007).FromanalysisofdustloadinginlakesedimentsinthemountainsoftheCRB(Neffetal.,2008;Reynoldsetal.,2009),weknowthatthesustaineddisturbanceofpreviouslystablelandsintheColoradoPlateauandGreatBasinthatbeganinthelatterhalfofthe1800shasledtoa5‐foldincreaseindustdepositionoverthatoftheprevious5000years.Basedonthisevidence,wehypothesizethattheacceleratedmeltassociatedwiththisdramaticincreaseindustdepositionhasaffectedthebasinhydrographandultimatelydecreasedyieldbyincreasingevapotranspirationanddecreasingsoilmoisture.Ourinitialmodelingindicatesthattheincreaseddustloading(representedbyamodifiedsnowalbedoparameterization)hasmarkedlymodifiedthehydrographanddecreasedannualwateryieldintheupperbasin(aboveLeeFerry,AZ)byanaverageof5%or0.8MAFsincesignificantdustdepositionbegan(Painteretal.,2009a),withatotallossofyieldof70MAFacross1915‐2003.SeveralstudieshaveshowndecreasingtrendsinpeaksnowaccumulationintheCRBoverthepastcentury(e.g.Hamletetal.,2005;Barnettetal.,2008),andprojectionsoffutureclimatescenariospointtodecreasesinstreamflowduetoatmosphericwarminganddecreasesinprecipitation(Christensenetal.,2004;2007).Climatewarminghasalsobeenprojectedtoincreasethefrequencyandseverityofdrought,toincreaseinterannualprecipitationvariability,andtoincreasethearealexpanseofdesertregions.TheseresponsesshouldincreasethefrequencyandmagnitudeofdustemissionfromdesertsinthesouthwestUSundercontinuedlevelsofsoildisturbance.Itislikelythattheimpactsofawarmingclimateonsnowaccumulation,snowmelt,andCRBwateryieldwillbestronglyenhancedbyincreaseddustemissionanddepositiononmountainsnowpacks.Bycontrast,modifiedlandmanagementpracticesindesertsystemsoftheColoradoPlateauandGreatBasinmayprovideameanstoincreasewateryieldormitigatelosses.
ProposedWork: WeproposetoexaminetherangeofchangestowateryieldintheupperCRBbycouplingpotentialclimatechangescenariosanddustdepositionscenarios.TheVariableInfiltrationCapacity(VIC)macroscalehydrologicmodelwillbeusedtosimulatethesnowcoverandmeltacrossthebasin,andthenaturalizedhydrographandannualCRBwateryieldatvariousgagesintheCRBculminatingatLeeFerry,AZ,forthehistoricperiodof1915‐2008,andforthreefuturetimeperiods:2010‐2039,2040‐2069,and2070‐2100.Inyear1,wewillassesshowPDLandEDLdustscenariosmodifythewaterbalanceandyieldrelativetotheADLacrossthehistoricalperiodof1915‐2008.Wewillalsointensivelystudytheperiod2000–2008asthiscoincideswiththeNASAEOSTerrasatelliterecordduringwhichwehavedatafromtheModerateResolutionImagingSpectroradiometerwithwhichtoinferradiativeforcinganddirectlyassessradiativeforcingsbydustrepresentedbyVIC.Inordertoperformthisassessment,wewillcomparethespatiallydistributedradiativeforcingsbydustinsnowfromVIC(intermediateproducts)withradiativeforcingsinsnowinferredfromtheMODISDustRadiativeForcinginSnow(MOD‐DRFS)model(Figure2),developedbyPIPainter(Painter,2009b).
Progress/Results: InitialVICmodelset‐upinprogress.CollaborationestablishedwithUWresearchersforensuringVICmodelversionanddrivingdatacoherencewithongoing“ReconcilingProjectionsofFutureColoradoRiverStreamFlow”project.
SubmissionofpapertoProceedingsoftheNationalAcademyofSciences.
CompleteinstallationoffullenergybalanceandradiationtoweratGrandMesa.Thisestablishesthe3rdtowerinthegrowingWesternEnergyBalanceoverSnow(WEBS)networkthatisoperatedbyPIPainterwithChrisLandry,CenterforSnowandAvalancheStudies(CSAS).
MyriadinvitedtalksincludingheadliningAnnualMeetingoftheColoradoRiverWaterConservancyDistrict,pressreleaseatNASASymposiumforEarthSystemScienceat20years,andpresentationofresultstoAnneCastle,AssistantSecretaryofInteriorforWaterandPower.
CompleteprocessingofenergybalanceandsnowmeltmodeldataforSenatorBeckStudyPlotandSwampAngelStudyPlot,SenatorBeckBasinStudyAreafor2004‐2009.Generalizedtoolsarenowestablishedforeasierprocessingofdatafor2010andbeyondandfortheGrandMesaStudyPlot.ProcessingofthesedataprovideconstraintsfortheVICmodelingdescribedintheproposedwork.
Presentations: Painter:GuyF.AtkinsonDistinguishedLectureSeries,DepartmentofGeologyandGeophysics,UniversityofUtah,WhereDesertsandMountainsCollide:theImplicationsofAcceleratedSnowmeltbyDesertDust,May2009.
Painter:NASAEarthSystemScienceat20yearsSymposium,WhereMountainsandDesertsCollide:Implications
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ofAcceleratedSnowmeltbyDisturbedDesertDust,NationalAcademyofSciences,Washington,DC,June2009.
Painter:WhenDesertsandMountainsCollide:TheImpactofDesertDustonSnowmeltHydrologyintheColoradoRiverBasin,JetPropulsionLaboratoryScienceVisitorandColloquiumProgram,Pasadena,CA,August2009.
Painter,Belnap:What’stheDirtySecretofDirtySnow?AnnualmeetingoftheColoradoRiverWaterConservancyDistrict,GrandJunction,CO,September2009.
Painter,Belnap,Udall:ImpactofDesertDustonSnowmeltResourcesintheColoradoRiverBasin,BriefingtoAnneCastle,AssistantSecretaryoftheInteriorforWaterandScience,andmanyothers.DepartmentofInterior,Washington,DC,October2009.
Painter:Briefingsofcongressionalstaffers,USHouseSubcommitteeonWaterandPower+USSenateSubcommitteeEnergyandWaterResources+SenatorMarkUdall(CO),ImpactofDesertDustonSnowmeltResourcesintheColoradoRiverBasin,WashingtonDC,October2009.
Painter:DirtyLittleSecretsoftheGreatestSnowonEarth,GreenMonthSustainabilityLectureSeriesatParkCity,sponsoredbySwanerandtheUniversityofUtahOfficeofSustainability,(withPeterMetcalfandJimSteenburgh),October2009.
DeemsandPainter:DesertDustImpactsonColoradoRiverBasinSnowpackandRunoffEmergingIssuesinClimateChange‐UNEPExpertWorkshop,NewDelhi,India,December2009
Deems:DustonSnow:EarlySnowmeltintheColoradoRiverBasin,AspenCenterforEnvironmentalStudies,NaturalistNightsLectureSeries,February2010
Painter:UniversityofUtahOfficeofSustainability,DirtyLittleSecretsoftheGreatestSnowonEarth(withJimSteenburgh),UniversityofUtah,February2010.
Painter:AltaEnvironmentalCenter,DirtyLittleSecretsoftheGreatestSnowonEarth(withJimSteenburgh),Alta,Utah,February2010.
Painter,etal.:WateryieldlossintheUpperColoradoRiverbasindrivenbydustradiativeforcinginsnow,FallMeetingAmericanGeophysicalUnion,SanFrancisco,CADecember2009.
Bryant,Painter:RadiativeforcingbydesertdustintheColoradoRiverBasinfrom2000to2009usingcoupledsatelliteandinsitumeasurements,FallMeetingAmericanGeophysicalUnion,SanFrancisco,CADecember2009.
Skiles,Painter,Barrett:Afive‐yearrecordofradiativeandhydrologicforcingbydesertdustintheColoradoRiverBasin,FallMeetingAmericanGeophysicalUnion,SanFrancisco,CADecember2009.
Publications: Painter,T.H.,J.S.Deems,J.Belnap,A.F.Hamlet,C.C.Landry,B.Udall.WateryieldlossintheUpperColoradoRiverbasindrivenbydustradiativeforcinginsnow,PNAS,inreview.
Partners/Stakeholders CWCB,ConservancyDistricts,USBR,USGS,CSAS
ProjectTitle: SeasonalForecasts
PrimaryInvestigator(s): K.Wolter
Contributors: NOAACPC
CoreFunding: WWAFUNDING2009:JAN–DEC
Summary: BuildingonadecadeofinvolvementwiththeWATFandwatermanagersfromvariousColoradowaterdistricts,Iwillcontinuethispartnershipthatentailsmonthlyupdatesofmyforecastwebpage(http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/SWcasts/).
ProposedWork: ThistranslatesintoamonthlysynthesisofrecentclimateconditionsonspatialscalesfromtheFrontRangeofColoradotoglobalENSO‐relatedfeatures,aswellastheexecutionandinterpretationofmyexperimentalclimateforecastproducts,culminatinginwidelydisseminated‘ExecutiveSummaries’.ThisinformationisalsoanimportantcomponentoftheWWAIntermountainWestClimateSummary(IWCS).
Progress/Results: Dependingondroughtconditions,Igivemonthly‐to‐seasonalbriefingstotheColoradoWaterAvailabilityTaskForceandotherstakeholdersonmyexperimentalclimateoutlooksaswellasonotherclimateforecastproducts.Thesebriefingsarebasedonmymonthlyupdatedwebpage(http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/SWcasts/)thatcoverstherecentandprojectedevolutionoftheENSOphenomenon,discussesthemostrecentClimatePredictionCenter(CPC)climateforecasts,andexaminesindetailmyownexperimentalforecastguidanceforthefullinteriorsouthwesternU.S.,withspecialemphasisonColorado.Thisincludessendingoutmy"executivesummary"tointerestedparties,mostlywatermanagers,andmediafolks.IhelpedtoedittheIWCSintermsofitsENSOassessmentsandforecastdiscussions(includingmyownexperimentalSWcasts).
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Onthenationalscale,myclimateforecastsareusedbywildfiremanagersinthewesternU.S.(10thannualfireassessmentworkshopinApril2009),andbyCPC,bothforseasonalclimateforecastsandinparticularfortheU.S.DroughtMonitorOutlook.MycontributionstoCPCinvolvemonthlyconferencecallsaheadoftheofficialforecastreleasedateinwhichIcontributemylatestexperimentalforecasts,andgivemygeneralassessmentoftheENSOsituation(thiscandifferfromtheofficialNOAAassessmentswhenmyMultivariateENSOIndex(http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/)departsfromNOAA’sNiño3.4SSTindex,butthiswasnotthecasein2009),andexpectedENSOimpactsintheU.S.IalsocontributetoCPC’smonthlyENSODiagnosticDiscussion(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/)bybriefingallinterestedpartiesonmymonthlyupdatedMEIaheadofCPC’sreleasedate.
RelatedtomyroleontheWATF,Ihavecontinuedtobeactiveonthe"DroughtPlanSubcommittee"fortheColoradoDroughtPlan,whichincludedameetinginDenverinDecember;also,aNIDISMeetingondroughtindices(SWSI)jointlywithCWCBinAugust(Boulder),inwhichIagreedtohelpwithevaluatingtheSWSIforColoradointhecontextoftheColoradoDroughtPlan.Thisworkwillbeperformedin2010,withsupportfromNIDIS.
Presentations: Wolter,ANewandImprovedMultivariateEnsoIndex(MEI),AmericanMeteorologicalSocietyMeeting,January14,2009
Wolter,SeasonalOutlookthroughMarch2009,ColoradoWaterAvailability&FloodTaskForce,January22,2009
Wolter,SeasonalOutlookthoughMay2009,ColoradoWaterAvailability&FloodTaskForce,February25,2009
Wolter,Letitsnow,LetitSnow,LetitSnow!,BixbyElementarySchool,March6,2009
Wolter,SeasonalOutlookthroughJune2009,ColoradoWaterAvailability&FloodTaskForce,March20,2009
Wolter,ExperimentalSeasonalClimateForecasts,BinationalDroughtScienceConference,March23,2009
Wolter,ThoughtsAbouttheNextThreetoFiveMonthsinNorthAmerica,withSpecialFocuson(South‐)EasternU.S.Videoconference,EasternSeasonalAssessmentWorkshop,NationalInteragencyFireCenter(NIFC),April14,2009
Wolter,ThoughtsAbouttheUpcomingSpring&SummerinNorthAmerica,withSpecialFocuson(South‐)WesternU.S.,NationalInteragencyFireCenterWorkshop,April14,2009
Wolter,"Natural"ClimateVariability,WesternRegionClimateChangeWorkshop,April15,2009
Wolter,SeasonalOutlookthroughSeptember2009,ColoradoWaterAvailability&FloodTaskForce,April22,2009
Wolter,SeasonalOutlookthroughSeptember2009,ColoradoWaterAvailability&FloodTaskForce,May27,2009
Wolter,SeasonalOutlookthroughOctober2009,ColoradoWaterAvailability&FloodTaskForce,June18,2009
Wolter,LongTermWeatherOutlook,ColoradoWaterAvailability&FloodTaskForce,July16,2009
Wolter,LongTermWeatherOutlook,ColoradoWaterAvailability&FloodTaskForce,August26,2009
Wolter,ClimateChangeinColorado:Present,Past,andFuture,BoulderAudubonSociety,September22,2009
Wolter,WhatDoesElNiñoMeanforDroughtinTexas?,NationalDroughtForum,October7,2009
Wolter,ElNiñoasa'Drought‐Buster'inTexas:HowReliableisit,orWhatCanweExpectthisWinter?AretheSeptemberRainsaSignofThingstoCome?,DroughtMonitorForum,October8,2009
Wolter,Panelist,SeasonalWeatherIndices,MDAEarthSatWeatherMeeting,October15,2009
Wolter,WhatcantheUpperColoradoBasinExpectthisWinter?,NOAANationalIntegratedDroughtInformationSystemWeeklyDroughtWebinars,November10,2009
Wolter,ReliabilityofENSOsignalinWesternU.S.inlastdecade,CaliforniaWaterResourcesWorkshop,November30,2009
Wolter,UpperColorado2009‐10:QuoVadis?,SevenStatesMeeting,December8,2009
Wolter,SnowStorms,ScienceDayLecture,October,2009
Wolter,WhatcanCaliforniaExpectThisWinter?,Winter2010OutlookWorkshop,November3,2009
Publications: 12monthlyexecutivesummaries,availableuponrequest
Partners/Stakeholders WATF,NOAACPC,CWCB,ColoradoWaterProviders
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ProjectTitle: TreeFlow:ADroughtPlanningResourceforWaterManagementintheWesternU.S.
PrimaryInvestigator(s): J.Lukas,C.Woodhouse
Contributors: S.Gray
CoreFunding: NOAACPOFUNDING2009:JAN—JUN
Summary: Paleohydrologicdataandinformationfromtreeringsareincreasinglyrecognizedasavaluabletoolfordroughtplanningandwaterresourcesmanagement.Therecentsevereandprolongeddroughtandagrowingawarenessoftheregionalimpactsofglobalclimatechange,coupledwithanincreasedindemandforwaterthatfarexceedsdemandsduringthe1950sdrought,havemadewatermanagersinthewesternU.S.realizetheneedfornewtoolsfordroughtplanningandwatermanagement.Thedevelopmentofhigh‐qualitytree‐ringbasedreconstructionsofstreamflowforagrowingnumberofwesternrivershascoincidedwiththisrealization.WithsupportfromNOAACPO,weareworkinghardtoengageresourcemanagersandfosterpartnershiptodeveloptree‐ringreconstructionsandapplicationsforregion‐specificwatermanagementanddroughtplanningneeds.Examplesoftheapplicationsofthereconstructionstowaterresourcemanagementnowabound(seebelow),butaprimetestimonytotheacceptanceofthereconstructionsasanimportantandusefulsourceofinformationistherecentlyapprovedColoradoRiverEnvironmentalImpactStatement,whichincludesmethodologiesforalternativehydrologicscenariosthatincorporatetree‐ringreconstructionsofColoradoRiverflow(BureauofReclamation2007).Whilethestreamflowreconstructionsarevaluableforthebroaderrangeofhydrologicvariabilitytheydocument,thepastrecordofstreamflowwillnotbeanexactanalogueforfutureflowsbecauseofglobalclimatechangeduetohumanactivities.Becauseofuncertaintiesinthemodelprojections,informationfromthepaleorecordcombinedwithfutureprojectionsmayyieldthemostlikelyrangeoffuturescenariosforplanningpurposes.
ProposedWork: Thegoalofthisprojectistoexpandtheusefulnessandvalueofstreamflowreconstructionsfordroughtplanningandwatermanagementtoabroaderrangeofwaterprovidersandresourcemanagers.Thisgoalwillbeaccomplishedusingatwo‐prongedapproachthatincludes1)anupdatedandcomprehensiveweb‐basedresourcefordata,applications,andanalysisthataddressesregionalneedsandinterests,andthatisdesignedtobeexpandabletoincludeadditionalregionsofinterestandreconstructionsthataregeneratedinthefuture,and2)thedevelopmentofaweb‐basedpaleotoolkittofacilitateapplicationsanduseofstreamflowreconstructions.
Themainobjectivesofthisstudyare:
TodevelopacentrallyorganizedwebpageresourcethatincorporatestheresourcesfrombothTreeFlowandtheworkshopwebpages,whilealsoaddressingregion‐specificwatermanagementneedsandinterests
Todevelopapaleotoolkitforanalyzinggagerecordsinthecontextofthecenturies‐longreconstructionsandtoassessfuturehydrologicscenariosbycombiningGCMresultswithpaleoflows.
Progress/Results: Thenew,expandedTreeFlowwebresource(http://treeflow.info)wentliveforreviewinlateJune2009andwaspubliclyannouncedtostakeholdersinSeptember2009.Thetop‐levelsectionsofthesiteinclude:(1)basin‐basedaccesstopaleohydrologydataforover60gagesacrossthewesternUS;(2)backgroundinformationontree‐ringdataandhowthestreamflowreconstructionsaredeveloped;(3)descriptionsofseveralcurrentapplicationsofthedatatowatermanagement;(4)agendas,presentations,andreportsfrom13tree‐ringworkshopsfrom2006‐2009;and(5)amulti‐pagefeature,ColoradoRiverStreamflow:APaleoPerspective.
ThenewTreeFlowsiteentailedthedevelopmentofcontentandcodeforabout100newHTMLpages,includingpagesforeachof60‐somepaleohydrologydatasetsacrossthewesternUS(http://treeflow.info/basin.html).ThenewTreeFlowsitealsoincludedthedevelopmentofafullytext‐annotatedPowerPointpresentationdescribingthegenerationofpaleohydrologydataandtheiruseinwaterresourcemanagement(http://treeflow.info/docs/treeflow_reconstructions&applications_annotated.ppt).Plannedfollowupwork(usingSARPfunding)in2010includesthefinalizingofthe“paleotoolkit”,andworkwithWyomingandUtahcollaboratorsonancillarypagesandresources.
Presentations: Lukas,J.“TreeFlow:Usingtree‐ringpaleohydrologyasaplanningtool.”WesternWatershedsandClimateChange‐WaterandAquaticSystemToolsWorkshop(USDAForestService).Boulder,CO,November18,2009.
Lukas,J.“Tree‐ringpaleohydrologiesandtheirapplicationtowatermanagementinColoradoandtheWest.”HydrologicSciencesandWaterResourcesEngineeringSeminar,UniversityofColorado,Boulder,CO,February4,2009.
Lukas,J.“WhattreeringstellusabouthydrologicvariabilityinColoradoandDenverWater’swatersheds.”DenverWaterPlanningForum,Denver,CO,January15,2009.
Publications: Lukas,J.(2009)."TreeFlow:AComprehensiveWebResourceforTree‐ringReconstructionsofStreamflow."IntermountainWestClimateSummary5(5).
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Partners/Stakeholders Regional,state,local,andprivatewaterprovidersandagencies,andotherwaterusers,suchasstakeholdersintheagricultureandhydropowersectors.
EcologicalVulnerabilities,Impacts,andAdaptation
Table2.
ProjectTitle: Forests,Climate,andChange
PrimaryInvestigator(s): E.Gordon,J.Lukas
Contributors: L.Dilling,S.vanDrunick,J.McCutchan,A.Ray
CoreFunding: WWAFUNDING2009:JULY–DEC
Summary: WeproposetobringWWA’slongstandingroleinsciencesynthesisandassessment,insupportofdecisionmakingandadaptation,tobearonvulnerabilitiesandimpactsarisingfromclimate‐relatedchangesinforestecosystems.Duringthefirstyear,wewillfocusontheongoingmountainpinebeetle(MPB)infestation,whichhasbeenlinkedtorecentclimatetrendsandiscausingsignificantandwidespreadchangesinforestecosystemsinColoradoandadjacentstates.Impactstowaterresourcesandtheriskofhigh‐severityfirearecitedasthemostseriousmanagementconcerns.ArecentletterfromtheColoradocongressionaldelegationtoseveralfederalagencies,requestingfundingandactiontodealwiththeinfestation,indicatestheveryhighstakeholdersalienceofMPB‐relatedrisksandvulnerabilities.
ProposedWork: Wehavegatheredinputforthisproposalfromseveralkeystakeholdersandscientists,includingMarcWaage,DenverWater;RickCables,USFS;ThereseGlowacki,BoulderCountyParks&OpenSpace;GarySeverson,NWCCOG,andTaniaSchoennagel,CUforestecologist.TheyagreedthatWWAcouldserveausefulroleasacoordinatorandproviderofinformationfordecisionsupportonforest‐changeissues,andtheirguidanceisreflectedintheproposedproductsandoutreachbelow.WeproposetosolicitinputfromabroadersetofstakeholdersinMPB‐affectedareastoidentifyinformationneedsfordecisionmaking.Wewillthendevelopsciencesynthesisproductstofillthebroadestneeds,andproposenewresearchtofillcriticalgaps.Concurrently,andinthelightofthesciencesynthesisproducts,wewillexaminecurrentplanningandmanagementresponsestotheMPBinfestation.GordonwillincorporatethisinformationintoabroaderdissertationexaminingwhetherresponsestomajorecologicalvulnerabilitiespresentinColorado,suchasfire,drought,andbeetleattacks,caninformstrategiesforsuccessfuladaptationtoclimatevulnerabilityandclimatechange.WewillalsoworkcloselywithAndreaRayregardingherproposedinteractionswithfederalresourcemanagerstoensurecoordinationofactivitiesandinformationthatwouldservetheinterestsofbothprojects.
Progress/Results: ThebulkofworkforthisprojecthasbeentoorientWWAandourselveswithongoingdiscussionsanddebatesoverdealingwiththemountainpinebeetleepidemicinColoradoandsouthernWyoming.DoingsohasmadeusknowntopersonsinvolvedintheissueandhashelpeduscarveoutafurtherroleforWWAinthearenaofforest‐climateinteractions.Todate,wehavemetindividuallywith:
RickCablesandPollyHays,USFSRegion2
MarcWaageandDonKennedy,DenverWater
TaniaSchoennagel,CU‐Boulder/INSTAAR
TonyCheng,ColoradoForestRestorationInstitute
ChuckRhoadesandLindaJoyce,USFSRockyMountainResearchStation
ThereseGlowackiandChadJulian,BoulderCountyParksandOpenSpace
PaigeLewisandMikeBabler,TheNatureConservancy
GarySeverson,NorthwestColoradoCouncilofGovernments
OnDecember7,2009,weorganizedabroadlyscopedmeetingentitled“MakingConnections:PineBeetles,Water,Climate,Fire,andtheFutureForest.”The40participantsrepresentedadiversesetofstakeholders(includingwatermanagers,landmanagers,andpolicymakers)andscientistsresearchingbeetle‐relatedissues.Weconductedthemeetingbyarranginginformalpanelsonwaterimpacts,thefire‐beetleconnection,climateandthefutureforest,andpolicyandpolitics.Themeetingprovidedparticipantswiththeopportunitytomeetandtalkwitheachother,andtoassessthecurrentstateofbothdecisionmakerconcernsandscientificresearch.Manyparticipantscommentedthattheyfoundthemeetingusefulandthatitwashelpfulinbridgingthestakeholder‐scientistdivide.Wenotedinparticularcontinueddebateoverscientists’andpolicymakers’
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assessmentsofthefireriskofbeetle‐killedforestsandtheresultingpolicyimplications.
Tofurtherscience‐stakeholderconnectionsrelatedtobarkbeetleissues,wesolicitedresponsesfrommeetingattendeestoasurveyaimedatunderstandingstakeholderconcernsandfuturescientificefforts.WeareusingtheresultsofthissurveytohelpbuildcontentfortheBarkBeetleInformationClearinghouse,aweb‐basedsourceforcontacts,scientificliterature,newspaperarticles,andothercontentwehopewillbeusefulforstakeholdersandothersconcernedaboutthebarkbeetleepidemic.
Ourproposeddeliverables(seebelow)includedtwosciencesynthesisreports,oneonwater‐relatedimpactsofbeetleinfestationsandoneonclimate‐relatedeffectsonbeetleinfestations.Duringthecourseoftheproject,wehavediscoveredthattheColoradoWaterInstitutehadengagedJohnStednick,aprofessoratColoradoStateUniversity,towriteareportonwaterimpacts.Weareawaitingfurtherinformationaboutthisreportbeforelookingforanadditionalrelevantopportunity,butGordonhasalreadyengagedpotentialco‐authorsandreviewersforapaperwhenwebetterunderstandhowitcanbeusefulwithoutbeingredundant.Lukasisbeginningtheprocessofcompilingexistingresearchtodevelopasynthesisreportonclimate‐beetleconnections.
Duringthecourseofourinvestigation,wealsodiscoveredthatresearchersacrossanumberofinstitutions,includingCU‐Boulder,CSU,NCAR,NOAA,andUSGSareallworkingonnewresearchrelatedtotheimpactsofbeetleinfestationsonwaterqualityandquantity.Wearecurrentlysolicitingfeedbackonaproposedwater‐beetlessciencesymposiumtobeheldinthespring.
Finally,aspartofearlyeffortstodefinehisPhDdissertationwork,Gordonispreparingapaperarguingforanempiricalapproachtodefiningsuccessorfailureinadaptation.ThispaperwouldcontendthattheongoingbarkbeetleinfestationinColoradoandelsewhereacrossNorthAmericamakesagoodcasestudyforunderstandinghowvariousregionshavesuccessfullyorunsuccessfullyadaptedtoamajorenvironmentalchange.ThepaperwasacceptedtotheICARUSworkshoponClimateVulnerabilityandAdaptation:TheoryandCasesinFebruary2010attheUniversityofIllinoisatUrbana‐Champaign.
Wewouldliketoemphasizethat,duetotheexploratoryandopen‐endednatureofthisproject,thescopeofourdeliverableshaschangedsomewhatwhencomparedtoouroriginalprojectproposal.
Presentations: Gordon,E.andLukas,J.IdentifyingPolicymakers’ScienceNeedsforClimateAdaptationinNationalForests.PosterPresentedatAmericanGeophysicalUnion,December17,2009.
Publications: Gordon,E.andDilling,L.AnEmpiricalApproachtoDefiningSuccessinAdaptation.AbstractacceptedtoICARUSWorkshoponClimateVulnerabilityandAdaptation:TheoryandCases,February11‐13,2010.
Partners/Stakeholders Forestandlandmanagers(USFS,BLM,NPS,CSFS);waterresourcemanagers(DenverWater,Northern,CRWCD,localwaterutilities);Coloradopublicofficialsatthefederal,state,county,andmunicipallevels;interagencyMPBtaskforcesandcooperatives
ProjectTitle: ClimateChangeImpactsonPublicLandsintheUpperColoradoRiverBasin
PrimaryInvestigator(s): J.Neff
Contributors: BLM
CoreFunding: WWA,NIDISFUNDING2009:JULY–DEC
Summary: TheFederalGovernmentisresponsibleforthemanagementofmuchofthelandinthewesternUnitedStates;inColoradoalone,theBureauofLandManagementandUSForestServiceadministerover35%oftheacreageofthestate.Theselandsencompassavastarrayofecosystemsthatrangefromdesertstoalpinetundraandincludeusesasdiverseaswildernessrecreationandresourceextraction.Alloftheseenvironments,whetherpristineorhighlydisturbed,willchangeastheresultofclimatechangeandthenatureandimpactsofthesechangesrepresentsoneofthemajoremergingchallengestolandmanagersinthecomingdecades.
Climateisaprimarydriverofecologicalprocessandecosystemstructure.InthewesternUS,droughtisamajorcauseofchangesinecologicalcommunitiesandecosystemfunction.Recentwork,includingthatsupportedbytheWWA,clearlyindicatesthepotentialforsevereandrepeatedregionaldroughtcycles(WoodhouseandLukas,2006).Recentregionalmulti‐yeardroughteventshaveresultedinmajorchangesinecosystemssuchastherecentwidespreadmortalityofpinyontreesintheFourCornersRegion(Breshearsetal.,2005)andthereisevidencethatariditymayincreaseinthefutureduetoclimatechange(Cooketal.,2004).Theimplicationsofthesepotentialchangesrangefrommanagementofforestsystemswithextensivedrought‐relatedmortalitytocostlyanddestructiveincreasesinthefrequencyandseverityofwildlandfire(c.f.Westerlingetal.,2006);eventsthathavebroadconsequencesforbothhuman(Butryetal.,2001)andbiogeochemicalsystems(WiedinmyerandNeff,2007).Thebasicandcriticalroleofclimateanddroughtecosystemdynamicsisclear,thebroaderissueofhowclimatechangecanandshouldinformdecision‐makingonfederallandsisfarlessso.
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Changesinclimatewillimpactlandmanagementdecision‐makingonmultiplelevels.Climatechangemaybecome(andarguablyalreadyhasbecome)acomponentofexistingfederallawssuchastheNationalEnvironmentalProtectionAct(NEPA),andtheEndangeredSpeciesAct(ESA).Newlegislationsuchasproposedcapandtradesystemsforcarboncouldalsoimpactmanagementofawiderangeofecosystemsthathaverelativelylargeratesofcarbonexchangewiththeatmosphere(forestsinparticular).Finally,climatechangewillimpactmanagersbecauseitwillalterthestateorfunctionofecosystems(whatdopinyonforestsbecomewhenthetreesdieduetodrought?)andbecausemanyfederalagencieshaveimplicitorexplicitplanningtimehorizonsthataremeasuredindecades(whatspeciesoftreesshouldbeplantedatasitefollowingalargewildlandfire?).Nearlyallthefederalagencieshavehadsomedirectiontoconsiderclimatechangeinplanningbutinmanyormostcases,limitedguidanceastohowtodoso.OfthemajorlandmanagementagenciesintheWesternUS(theUSFS,BLMandtheNationalParkService‐NPS),theBLMinparticularhashadrelativelylittleinstitutionalfocusonclimatechangeadaptationplanningandisthereforetheprimaryfocusofthisproposal.
ProposedWork: Inthisproject,weproposetoworkwiththeBLMinColorado,Utah,andatthenationalofficetoinitiatetheprocessofevaluatinghowclimatechangewillimpactpubliclands.Overthepasttwoyears,wehaveestablishedacloseworkingrelationshipwiththeSanJuanPublicLandsCenterinDurango,CO(ajointUSFSandBLMlandmanagementcenter)andincollaborationwithBLMstaffatthecenter,developedaninitialprojectpreparinganalysisofpotentialclimatechangestotheSWColoradoregionusingtheNorthAmericanRegionalClimateChangeAssessmentProgram(NARCCAP)simulations.WithNOAAandWWAsupport,weproposetoleverageourexistingworkevaluatingpotentialclimatechangeimpactstotheregiontosupportabroaderspatialevaluationoflandareasparticularlyvulnerabletopotentialclimatechanges.
Progress/Results: In2009,weinitiatedseveraleffortstomoveforwardonourproposedwork.IntheareaofrefiningandutilizingdownscaledGCMprojections,wearepartneringwithagroupofresearchersincludingImitiazRangwala(NOAApostdoc)andJoeBarsugli(CIRESANDWWA)toexamineNARCCAPsimulationsfortheFourCornersregion(asatestcaseforabroaderregionalevaluationofthedownscaledprojections).
WereceivedasupplementtoourBLMfundingforclimateimpactsworkintheFourCornersregionthatallowedustohireKarenCozzettoasanewpostdoctoralfellowworkingonthisproject.KarenwillbejointlysupportedbytheBLMandNOAAwesternwaterassessmentfor2010(CozzettoissupportedbyWWAratherthanFernandezaswasproposedintheoriginalbudget).Karenisleadingeffortstoaddressthedeliverablesproposedinouroriginalproposal:
Deliverables1and4:ReporttoBLMmanagersontheuseofexistingrangelandassessmentandmonitoringprotocolsforclimatechangeimpactsanalysisandwebsitehostedatCU(underthehttp://moab.colorado.edusitethatsummarizesongoingandpotentialclimateimpactstopubliclands.InconsultationwiththeBLM,wehaveinitiatedamonthlyconferencecalltodiscussclimatechangesciencesupportforlandmanagementdecisions.ThefirstconferencecallwillbeheldonJanuary27,2010andwillfocusondownscalinganddroughtimpactprojections.Thepurposeofthesecallsistoprovideavenueforscience/managementinteraction.AnumberofpeopleincludingBLMstateoffice,SanJuanPublicLandsOffice,CUBoulder,NOAAandUSGSpersonnelwillparticipateinthesecalls.WearepreparingabimonthlynewsletterfordistributiontoBLMandDept.ofInteriorstaffthatprovidesupdatesonprojectsandoverviewsofissuesrelatedtoclimatechangeassessmentsandimpactsanalysis.Thefirstnewsletterisavailableathttp://moab.colorado.edu/ClimateImpactsPublicLands/newsletter_2010_01.Thesenewsletterswillprovidearapidandrelativelyinformalmechanismforcommunicatingresearchprogresstomanagers.ThesenewsletterswillbehostedonanewwebsiteatCUBoulderthatwilladdressthedeliverablesunder#4below.Thiswebsiteiscurrentlyunderconstructionandwillbehostedathttp://moab.colorado.edu/ClimateImpactsPublicLands.
Deliverables2and3:Wearecurrentlycarryingouttheinitialmodelingeffortstoaddressourdeliverables2and3below.WeareusinganaridlandvadosezonehydrologymodeldevelopedbyEricTiltonatCUBouldertosimulatesoilwaterdynamicsandevaluatelikelyplantwaterstressduringdroughtconditions.WeareusingthemodelinitiallyfortwocasestudiesofpinyonjuniperecosystemsnearDurango,CO.Ourgoalistocarryoutsimulationsforarangeofcasestudycombinationsthatarerepresentativeofthecommonsoil,elevational,andvegetationcombinationsontheColoradoPlateau.Thisapproachallowsustofocusoureffortsonunderstandingthemechanisms,includingtheinteractionbetweenvegetationandsoiltype,thatcontrolecologicalresponsestodroughtinthisregion.Asimilartypeofeffortusingspatiallyresolvedmodelswouldincreasethecomplexityoftheanalysisandlikelydecreasethequalityofmechanisticunderstandingthatemergesfromtheanalysis.
Usingourmodelingapproachwearefocusingonthefollowingdynamicsinthenearterm.First,wearemodelingthewaterstressassociatedwithhistorical(observationalrecord)droughtsontheColoradoPlateau.Thisisdonebyusingclimaterecordstodriveourmodelfordifferentvegetation,soilandelevationalcombinations.Theresultingdatawillthenbeanalyzedtodeterminehowsoilconditions(e.g.depth/texture),vegetationcomposition(e.g.forest,shrubland,grassland),andelevation(e.g.evaporativepotential)moderateoramplifytheeffectsofregionaldroughts.Theseresultswillbeclassifiedintodifferentcategoriesbasedonthelandscapecharacterizationaboveandthetype(winter,summer)andduration(short,multiyear)ofdrought.Fromtheseclassifications,wewillgenerateamapsofcategoricalvariablesthatrepresentspotentiallandscapescalevulnerabilitytodroughtcycles.Thisanalysiswillbecomethecorepartofapublicationthatwewillprepareforapeerreviewedjournalinthesummerof2010.
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Ourfutureeffortswillfocusontestingourprojectedvulnerabilityagainstsatellite‐derivedmapsofvegetationgreennessduringthe~2000regionaldroughtandprojectionsofpotentialvulnerabilitytothetypeanddurationofdroughtperiodsprojectedbytheNARCCAPsimulations.IntheabsenceofreliableprecipitationdatafromtheNARCCAPsimulations,wewillfocusonincreaseinevapotranspirationassociatedwithrisingtemperaturesandcarryoutasensitivityanalysisthatfocusesonpotentialchangesinprecipitation.
Presentations: None.(NOTE:informalpresentationstoBLMpersonnelhavetakenplaceandashortworkshopisscheduledforlaterinFebruary2010)
Publications: Websitecontent:http://moab.colorado.edu/ClimateImpactsPublicLands/Welcome2.html
Partners/Stakeholders BLM
ProjectTitle: EffectsofMountainPineBeetleonWaterQualityinColorado
PrimaryInvestigator(s): J.McCutchan,S.vanDrunick
Contributors: E.Gordon,T.Detmer,J.Lukas
CoreFunding: WWAFUNDING2009:JULY–DEC
Summary: Arecentoutbreakofmountainpinebeetle(Dendroctonusponderosae)ischangingthestructureofmontanepineforestsinColorado.Lodgepolepineshavesufferedhighmortalityinmanywatersheds,andtheextentofaffectedwatershedsisgrowing.Thecurrentoutbreakisnotunprecedented;similaroutbreakshaveoccurredpreviouslyinColoradoandelsewhereinwesternNorthAmerica.However,theeffectsofthecurrentoutbreakwillbelong‐lasting(i.e.,decadestocenturies).Climatechangemayalterthedynamicequilibriumbetweenthemountainpinebeetle(MPB)andlodgepoleforestsinColorado.Forexample,iftheclimatebecomeswarmeranddrier,theconditionsthatsupportMPBoutbreaks–warmwintertemperaturesandlowsoilmoisture–maybecomedominant,andthedistributionoflodgepolepinemaybealtered.
TreemortalitycausedbyMPBisaffectingforestresourcesandtourismacrosswesternNorthAmerica;however,large‐scaleddieoffsovermostofawatershedalsochangethemagnitudeandtimingofhydrologicfluxes.Growingforestsinterceptsomeoftheprecipitationandnutrientswithinawatershed.Therefore,thelossofforestbiomassreducesevapotranspirationandincreasestheyieldofwaterandnutrients,althoughsuchchangeshavenotbeenwellquantifiedinColorado.ReducedevapotranspirationandgreaterwateryieldmayincreaseweatheringratesandparticulateexportinwatershedsaffectedbyMPB.Concentrationsofnutrientsandparticulatesaffectthedistributionandabundanceofaquaticorganisms,includingalgae,aquaticinvertebrates,andfish.Increasednutrientconcentrationsalsoaffectthegrowthofalgaeinlakesandreservoirsthatareusedaswatersupplies.Thus,changesintheexportofnutrientsandsedimentfromforeststostreamscancauseproblemsforwaterusers(e.g.,throughincreasedtreatmentcosts)andcanalterthefunctionofaquaticecosystems(e.g.,throughchangesinfoodwebstructure).Inareaswherepesticides(e.g.,carbamatesorpyrethroids)areappliedtocontrolMPBpopulations,runoffintostreamsmayresultinfurtherchangesinwaterquality.
ProposedWork: Becausewaterchemistryinstreamsreflectsmultipleprocesses,includingpatternsofatmosphericdeposition,mineralweathering,nutrientuptake,andhumanperturbations,understandingtheeffectsofMPBonwaterchemistryisparticularlycomplicatedinwatershedswithsubstantialhumaninfluence.Weproposetocapturetwo“snapshots”ofwaterqualityacrossRockyMountainNationalPark,whichincludeswatershedsspanningthefullrangeofdamagebyMPBandalsoisfreeofmanyofthehumaninfluencesthatcouldconfoundananalysisoftheeffectsofMPBonwaterchemistry.Thesnapshotwillconsistofasetof~160watersamplescollectedonasingledate,duringthemiddleofthegrowingseason(midAugust).Asecondsnapshotwillbeconductedduringsnowmeltrunoff(~80samples;spring2010)onasubsetofthelocationssampledin2009.SamplesforpesticideanalysisalsowillbecollectedfromstreamsinareaswheretreesarebeingsprayedforMPB(e.g.,inholdingsinMoraineParkandWildBasin).Thesurveys,incombinationwithGISanalyses(e.g.,usingmapsoftreemortalityfromU.S.ForestServiceaerialsurveys)willprovideinformationonspatialandtemporalpatternsofwaterchemistryinwatershedsaffectedtovaryingdegreesbyMPB.
Progress/Results: WithhelpfromNationalParkServicepersonnelandvolunteers,wecollectedwatersamplesandfielddatafromover200locationsinandaroundRockyMountainNationalParkon18August2009.Thesamplinglocationsincludedwatershedsaffectedtovaryingdegreesbymountainpinebeetle;forexample,theupperCachelaPoudrewatershedisrelativelyunaffectedbypinebeetles,theNorthSt.Vrainwatershedismoderatelyaffected,andtheNorthInletwatershedhassufferedwidespreadtreemortalityduetomountainpinebeetle.
WatersampleshavebeenanalyzedforpH,specificconductance,anions(nitrate,nitrite,sulfate,chloride),cations(calcium,magnesium,sodium,potassium,ammonia),dissolvedorganiccarbon,dissolvedorganicN,particulateN,particulateC,totaldissolvedphosphorus,particulateP,andabsorbancespectra(UV,visible).Asetofphotoswas
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takenateachlocationandtheseimagesarenowbeinganalyzed(e.g.,forestimationofconiferhealthatthesamplinglocations).Relevantdatalayers(e.g.,elevation,vegetationcover,treemortality)forthesamplingareahavebeenassembledandGISanalysesareinprogress.Dataanalysisforthe2009samplingwillbecompletedinearlyspring.
Althoughdataanalysesforthe2009samplingarenotyetcomplete,preliminaryanalyseshaveshownthattheeffectsofmountainpinebeetleonnutrientchemistryinstreamsofRockyMountainNationalParkhavebeenmodestincomparisonwithsomeotherexamplesofforestdisturbance(e.g.,clearcutting).Mountainpinebeetlemaysignificantlyincreasenutrientconcentrationsinsomelakesandreservoirs,inthatthechangescouldresultinmeasurablechangesinphytoplanktongrowthorwaterclarity,butitdoesnotappearthatsuchchangeswillbedramatic(exceptpossiblyinthecaseofwidespreadfire).
Basedontheresultsofsamplingin2009andinformationonpesticideapplications(providedbytheNationalParkService),asubsetoftheinitialsamplinglocationswillbesampledrepeatedlyin2010.Asin2009,watersampleswillbeanalyzedforfractionsofnitrogen,phosphorus,andcarboninordertofurtherevaluatetheeffectsofmountainpinebeetleonexportofnutrientsinstreamwater.Thesesamplesalsowillbeanalyzedforcarbamates.Samplingmultipledatesateachlocationmaybenecessaryfordetectionofpesticidesinstreamwater(ifpresentabovedetectionlimits)sincetimingofthemovementofpesticidesisuncertain.Repeatedsamplingalsowillprovidebetterestimatesofnutrientloading(i.e.,toreservoirsusedaswatersupplies)thanispossiblewithasinglesamplingdate.
Presentations: None.(NOTE:Severalin2010)
Publications: None.(NOTE:Comingin2010)
Partners/Stakeholders NationalParkService(RockyMountainNationalPark),water‐managementagencies(e.g.,NorthernColoradoWaterConservancyDistrict),localmunicipalities,andwaterusers
EmergingInitiativesandAdaptationStrategiestoInformClimateServices(formerlyClimateAdaptationandtheAdaptation‐MitigationNexus)
Table3.
ProjectTitle: ADroughtImpactandVulnerabilityIndicatorSuite
PrimaryInvestigator(s): W.Travis,L.Dilling,R.Klein,K.Gangwer
Contributors: A.Ray
CoreFunding: WWAFUNDING2009:JULY–DEC
Summary: AkeyneedidentifiedbyNOAA’sscienceadvisoryboard(SocialScienceWorkingGroup,2009)isimprovedmeasuresofsocio‐economicimpactsandbetterindicatorsofsocietalvulnerabilitytoatmospherichazardssothatNOAAcanmeasureoutcomesofitsprogramsandtargetneeds.Whilewearegettinggoodatmeasuring,evenforecasting,thephysicalstateoftheweatherandclimate,weoperatewithonlythemostrudimentarymeasuresofsocialimpactsandvulnerabilities.But,astheNRCPanelonStrategiesandMethodsforClimate‐RelatedDecisionSupport(2009)justconcluded,decisionsupportrequiresdevelopmentofboththetoolsfordecision‐makingandtheinformationonwhichtoapplythosetools.Theyhighlighttheproblemofmeasuringhazardlossandvulnerability(pp.4‐3,4),andtheyrecognizethat“Researchisneededtodevelopindicatorsofadaptivecapacitythatcanaddressthediversityoftypesofdisruptiveevents;assesseffectsbyregion,sector,humanactivity,andtimescale;incorporateassessmentsofcopingcapacity(e.g.,emergencypreparednessandresponsesystems,insurancesystems,disasterreliefcapabilities);andconsiderdiversetypesofimpacts(e.g.,onlifeandhealth,economicsystems,businessorganizations,governments,andcommunities.”(p.4‐12).TheylaudtheRISAsforfocusingoninformationrelevanttoregionsandkeysectors.Thisprojectwouldadvancethesegoalsbydevelopingkeyindicatorsofdroughtandotherclimate‐relatedvulnerabilityintheWWAresearchareaatappropriatescales.Vulnerabilityassessmentrequiresbothphysicalandsocialdata,whichtogethercanrevealsensitivitiesandtrends,andindicatewhereclimate‐relatedresourcescouldbebesttargetedforreducingvulnerability.Wehavebasicclimatologicalandwaterresourcesmeasures(e.g.,snowpack,streamflow,reservoirstoragelevels,andwaterdeliveries).Andthoughsomeinstitutionswithprovendroughtvulnerabilitiessuchasmunicipalwaterutilitieshavedevelopedandroutinelyapplytheirownvulnerabilityandimpactindicators(e.g.,supply/demandratios),muchofwhatweknowaboutthesocietalimpactsofdroughtimpactscomesfromanecdotalandmediaaccounts.
ProposedWork: CanvasstheWWAteamtoassessmeasuresalreadyemployed,rejected,orattempted,andtobuildatargetlistofindicatorsbasedonpreviousworkandcontactwithstakeholders.Thendevelop,collectandrefineasuiteofquantitativeindicatorsthatrevealthetype,magnitude,andnetimpactsinkeysectors,especiallyurbanwater,
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agriculture,ecosystems,recreation,andthegeneraleconomy,forthegeographicareaservedbytheWWA.Startwithbroaderindicators,andextendthesemeasuresbackatleasttothe1976‐77drought(andbeforeifdataofadequatequalitycanbelocated),testthemwiththeWWAteamandselectedstakeholders.Ineachcasewemustevaluatequality,availability,andusefulness.
Progress/Results: DuringAugust‐December,2009,wedevelopedarosterofdroughtindicatorsandtestedseveralforColoradoandthethree‐state(Colorado‐Wyoming‐Utah)region.
Agricultural:
Cropyields(depression;butconfoundingfactors)
Plantedvs.harvestedacres(%abandoned)
Livestockinventories
Agincome
AgriculturalDisasterdeclarations
Cropinsurance
WaterSupplyandEcological:
Declaredwatershortagesindeliveries
Formalurbanwateruserestrictions(“FourthofJulyIndex”)
Otherdrought“emergency”and“disaster”declarations(e.g.,FEMAPresidentialDisasters;localemergencies‐‐‐e.g.,AtlantaandAustin)
Wildfireindices(#,area,costs)
GangwerattendedtheWWAclimateworkshopinGlenwoodSpringstobecomefamiliarwithWWApresentationsandusergroups,andwepresentedinitialresultsfortheaboveindicatorstotheWWAteamonDec.3forfeedback.Ourdatagathering,discussionswithagencies,andfeedbackfromtheWWAteamcausedustofocusontheagriculturalproductionandcropinsurancemeasures,andindicatorsofdeclaredsupplyshortages,andtoexploreuseofdroughtintensitymeasures(e.g.,PDSI)forimpactsnormalization.
Presentations: December3,2009,WWAteammeeting,“CanWeMeasureDroughtVulnerabilityOverTime?”BillTravisandKristinGangwer.
Forthcoming:April15,2010,AAGAnnualMeeting,“AssessingDroughtImpactsandVulnerabilityintheUSIntermountainWest.”KristinGangwerandBillTravis.
Publications: None.(NOTE:Comingin2010)
Partners/Stakeholders NIDIS;nationalclimateservice;state,regional,andlocalunitswhomanagedrought,planfuturewaterresources,andthinkaboutclimatechangeadaptation
ProjectTitle: EvaluatingtheUtilityofanUncertaintyFrameworkforRegionalClimateInformation
PrimaryInvestigator(s): K.Averyt
Contributors: R.Webb
CoreFunding: WWAFUNDING2009:JULY–DEC
Summary: Lackofknowledgeregardinguncertaintyassociatedwithclimatemodelsandprojectionscanhinderdecision‐makersfromimplementingclimateadaptationstrategies.Aformalizedscientificuncertaintyrubricmayproveavaluabletoolforthoseusingclimateinformationforregionaladaptationplanning.TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)usesstandarduncertaintyterminologytoconveydegreesofscientificuncertaintytointernationalpolicymakers;bothquantitative,probabilisticassessments(verylikely(>90%),likely(>66%),etc.)andmoresubjectiveconfidenceassessments(highconfidence,etc.)areusedbythedifferentIPCCWorkingGroups.Thisterminologyhasbecomeanintegralpartoftheinternationalsciencepolicyvernacular.TheUSGlobalClimateResearchProgramadoptedsimilarterminologyforitsScientificAssessmentProducts(SAP).However,thedifferentSAPdocumentsuseddifferentlikelihoodexpressions.Thelackofhomogeneitycomplicatesthecommunicationofscientificuncertaintyinsupportofregionaladaptationplanning,asregionalclimatesynthesescullstatementsfromdifferentsourcesincludingtheIPCCAssessmentReportsandUSGCRPSAPs.
Forexample,incraftingtheColoradoClimateReport,adocumentdevelopedbytheWesternWaterAssessment
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(WWA)tosupportadaptationplanningforwatermanagers,statementsincorporatinguncertaintylanguagewereculledfrommanyIPCCandSAPReports.AlthoughquotingIPCCandSAPstatementscontaininguncertaintyterminologyprovedusefultotheColoradoReportaudience,therewasnomechanismfortheWWAtoapply“likelihood”and“confidence”terminologiestothestate‐specificstudiesnotincludedininternationalandnationalassessments.DevelopingaregionaluncertaintyframeworkfortheColoradoReportwasnotpracticalgiventheshorttimelinefordevelopingthereportandthesmallteamofscientistsworkingontheproject(relativetotheIPCC).
ProposedWork: Weproposedevelopingaprocessforaddressinguncertaintyinregionalclimateissues.Thefirstpartofthiseffortwillbeanassessmentofhowuncertaintyiscurrentlybeinghandledonregionalscales.ThesecondpartwillbeanefforttoleveragethestakeholderrelationshipsdevelopedthroughtheCross‐RISAReconcilingColoradoRiverFlowsprojecttodevelopabest‐practicesframeworkforcommunicatingregionaluncertainty.Infutureyears,wehopetotestthisframeworkandevaluateitsutilitythroughRISApartners.
Wehopetobroachthefollowingresearchquestions:Isanuncertaintyindexnecessary?WouldanuncertaintyindexbasedontheIPCCandUSGCRPmodelstailoredtoregionalclimateissuesbevaluabletousers?Likelihoodorconfidence—whichismoreusefulforadaptation?Atwhatpointdoesauserdecidethataclimateprojectionactionable?Willoneframeworkworkforall?Orcanatypologyapproachbeusedtoguideuncertaintyissues?
Progress/Results: Forthisproject,IworkedwiththeNOAANear‐TermOpportunities(NTO)Teamtocompilethemajorinternational,federal,regional,state,andlocaldocumentsandinitiativesgearedtowardassessmentofclimate.Imaintainedawebsitewithlinkstothesedocumentsat:http://wwa.colorado.edu/assessments/assessments_lists.html.Isummarizedtheprocessusedtogenerateseveralofthereports,whichbecamepartofalargerreportbytheNTOTeam.Asadirectresultofevaluatingthemyriadapproachestoassessment,IbecameinterestedinthescientificcapacitytogenerateusablescienceandhaveapaperinpressinBAMSfocusedonthisissue.
Thisprojectrapidlybecameenvelopedinthefollow‐uptotheColoradoClimateReport,inthatwebegantoexploreconnectionsbetweenreducinguncertaintyandclimateliteracy.(SeeClimateRoadshowformoredetails).
Presentations: Averyt,K.B.,J.Lowrey,J.MartinandB.Udall(2009)AnUncertaintyFrameworkforRegionalClimateAssessments?ClimatePredictionApplicationsScienceWorkshop,Norman,Oklahoma.http://climate.ok.gov/cpasw/presentations.php
Averyt,K.B.(2009)WhytheScientificCultureImpedesProgressTowardClimateAdaptation.WaterintheWestPanel,AMS.
Publications: SummaryofAssessments(seehttp://wwa.colorado.edu/assessments/assessments_lists.html)
K.Averyt(InPress)AreWeSuccessfullyAdaptingSciencetoClimateChange?,BulletinoftheAmericanMeteorologicalSociety.
Partners/Stakeholders NOAA
ProjectTitle: Energy‐Water‐ClimateNexus:DevelopinganEnergy‐WaterDecisionSupportToolsfortheColoradoRiverBasin
PrimaryInvestigator(s): K.Averyt,R.Pulwarty,D.Kenney
Contributors: R.Wilkinson
CoreFunding: NOAACPO,WWA,NIDISFUNDING2009:JAN–DEC
Summary: Thereisagrowingrecognitionoftheinterconnectednessofenergydemandandwaterresources.Energydevelopmentrequireswater,andmovingandtreatingwaterconsumesenergy.Theseandrelatedconnectionscreatenovelchallengesinmanagementandofferopportunitiestocraftsolutionswithmultiple,cross‐sectorbenefits.
Energyproductionaccountsforroughly40%ofannualfreshwaterwithdrawalsinColorado,whiledomesticwithdrawalsareonly3%.Waterdemandisprojectedtoincreasesignificantlyascallsfor“energyindependence”arelikelytorevitalizewater‐intensiveprocessesneededforenergyproductionsuchascoalandmineral(e.g.uranium)mining,nuclearpower,coal‐firedpower,oilshaleextraction,amongothers.Farmingforbiofuels,hydropower,andotherrenewableenergytechnologiesalsoposechallenges.Forexample,waterconsumptionbydedicatedenergycropsforbiofuelproductioncanexceed265,000gallonsofwaterperMWhofpowergenerated(R.Wilkinson,pers.com.).Similarly,waterresourcesmanagementconsumessignificantquantitiesofenergybecausewaterisheavy,somovingituphillisenergyintensive.Energyisanintegralcomponentofseveralfacetsofwatermanagement,justaswaterisintegratedintotheenergysector.Thechangingenergyeconomyand
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watermanagementarefurthercomplicatedbyColorado’schangingclimateandpopulationgrowth.Thesewillaltersupplyanddemandpatterns,thuschallengingwatermanagementinmanywaysandoverwhelmingthefinancialcapabilityofenergyandwaterutilitiestopursueadaptationstrategies.
ProposedWork: Researchconnectingenergy,water,andclimateisremarkablyscarce,despitecallsfromresourcemanagersandpublicpolicyofficialsfordatathatwillinformplanning.Theteamofresearchersandprogramsorganizedinthisprojectarewellestablishedineachofthesethreesubstantiveareas(energy,waterandclimate),andadditionally,haveademonstratedrecordofexploringandcementingcross‐sectorandcross‐disciplinarylinkages.AmeetingofthosecurrentlyworkingontheseissueswillallowtheWWAteamto(1)examinethemanywaysinwhichthesesectorsinteract,highlightingdangersandopportunities;(2)developcollaborativeprogramsbuildinguponcurrentresearchandmodelingatNOAA,NREL,NCARandCUthroughdiscussionwithstakeholders,managers,andplanners;(3)identifypolicyandmanagementpathwaysthatoffersolutionsthatdomorethantransferproblemsamongsectors.Subsequently,asignificantstakeholderengagementinitiativewillbedeveloped.
Progress/Results: Thepastyearhasbeenasuccessfulnegotiationofbuildingnetworkcapacityandestablishinglegitimacyinthescienceoftheenergy‐water‐climatenexus.BuildinguponthemodeldevelopedatUniversityofCaliforniaSantaBarbara(seeKelleretal.,2010),wetestedthemodelinColoradoRiverBasin.Specifically,wecomparedthewaterconsumptionassociatedwithcurrentlyoperationalcoal‐firedpowerplantswithdatareportedfromtheenergysector.Wethencomparedwaterconsumptionassociatedwithbothcoal‐firedpowerplants(generating8000MW)andconcentratedsolarthermalplants(alsogenerating8000MW)slatedforconstructionthatwouldbedrawingwaterfromresourcesderivedfromtheColoradoRiver.TheresultssuggestthatCSPwouldconsumelesswaterthancoal‐firedplantsbecauseofthetypesoftechnologiesintendedtobeusedatspecificplants.However,throughthiswork,wehaveidentifiedothergroupswithsimilarwaterforenergymodels,andtheirdataarenotthesameasours.Inordertomoveforwardwiththiswork,weneedtoreconcilethedifferentmodelsanddevelopthebestpossiblelifecycleanalysisfordifferentenergyproducingtechnologies.Thishasemergedasapriority,aswecannotmoveforwardwiththisworkuntilthisoccurs.Tothisend,wewillbeholdingalargeworkshopin2010inanattempttocoordinateonthebestpracticesforevaluatingwaterforenergyanalysis.
Presentations: KAveryt:SolarThermal&Coal‐FiredPowerPlants:ConsequencesfortheWesternUSandColoradoRiverBasin,RenewableEnergyintheSouthwest:ConcentratedSolarandBeyond,Tucson,AZ(October2009)
Publications: None.(NOTE:Comingin2010)
Partners/Stakeholders NIDIS,NREL,CURASEI,UnionofConcernedScientists,ElectricPowerResearchInstitute
ProjectTitle: Energy‐Water‐ClimateNexusintheWesternUS
PrimaryInvestigator(s): D.Kenney,K.Averyt
Contributors: R.Pulwarty
CoreFunding: UniversityofColoradoEnergyInstitute;WWA
Summary: Thereisagrowingrecognitionoftheinterconnectednessofenergydemandandwaterresources.Energydevelopmentrequireswater,andmovingandtreatingwaterconsumesenergy.Theseandrelatedconnectionscreatenovelchallengesinmanagementandofferopportunitiestocraftsolutionswithmultiple,cross‐sectorbenefits.
ProposedWork: Weintendtoproduce(aseditors)abookofcontributedpapersthatreviewvariouselementsofwater‐energy‐climateconnectionsintheAmericanWest.Anoutlinehasnotyetbeendeveloped,butitwilllikelyfeatureamixofcasestudiesandthematicchapters,highlightingbothproblemsandopportunitiesassociatedwiththisnexus.Already,wehaveafirmcommitmenttopublish(availableuponrequest)fromEdwardElgarPublishing(amajorglobalacademicpublisherthatpublishedDoug’s“InSearchofSustainableWaterManagement”in2005)(http://www.e‐elgar.co.uk/index.lasso),andhavereceivedencouragementfromseveralpotentialcollaborators(e.g.,RobertWilkinsonofUCSB).Althoughabookisthetangibleproductofthiseffort,itstruevalueisastheskeletonuponwhichwewillbuildanetworkofleadingresearchersandpolicy‐makersactiveinthisfield.Similarly,thiselementoftheprojectshouldlenditselftoadditionalfundraisingactivitiesByhavingaready‐madepublishingoutletavailabletopotentialcontributors,wearehopingtojumpstartournetworkingefforts,andthus,buildastrongfoundationforthissubstantiveelementwithinWWA.Averyt’sColoradocasestudy(describedelsewhere)willbeonechapterinthiseffort;itislikelythatDougwillneedtoauthoranintroductionand/orconcludingchapteraswell,andperhapsevenafocusedsubstantivechapter(subjectTBD),basedonhowtheoutlinecomestogether.
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Progress/Results: Thelast6monthshavebeenextremelybusy.Themainactivitiesoverthepast6monthshaveinvolvednetworkbuilding.Thishastakenseveralforms.FirstwasattendanceinOctoberoftheconferenceinTucsonentitled:“WaterandLandforRenewableEnergyintheSouthwest”hostedbySouthwestHydrology,focusedlargelyonthechallengesofconcentratedsolar.ThiswasfollowedinNovemberbyparticipationinaninvitation‐onlyscopingmeetingoftheUnionofConcernedScientists(UCS)onthe“energy‐watercollision,”whichincludedadiscussionofthepotentialroleofUCSinwesternUSwater‐energyprojects.Alsoduringthistime,Iparticipated,asanAffiliateintheCURenewableandSustainableEnergyInstitute(RASEI),ineffortstobuildanetworkofwater‐energyresearchersinColorado,includingbothuniversity‐basedandfederallabprojects.Also,asateammemberoftheCarpeDiemproject(ofExloco),Ihavehelpedorganizeawater‐energymeetingthatwilloccursooninSanFrancisco.Morerecently,IhavemetwithofficialsattheWesternGovernors’AssociationaboutwaystointegratetheirnewworkonenergygenerationsitingandtransmissionwithothereffortsthroughouttheWest.Ineachoftheseefforts,IhavebeenabletointroducepartnerstoWWAresearchandresearchers.Usingthesenetworks,two“callforpapers”haverecentlybeendistributed(toroughly200individualsandgroups)regardingthebookproject.Proposalsarecurrentlybeingevaluated.
Deliverables: Progresstowardsdevelopmentofenergy‐waterbook,includingdetailedoutlineandidentificationofauthorsandcontributors
Presentations: None.(NOTE:Severalin2010)
Publications: None.(NOTE:BookChapterpreparationin2010)
Partners/Stakeholders UniversityofColoradoRASEI,NREL
ProjectTitle: JointFrontRangeClimateChangeVulnerabilityStudy
PrimaryInvestigator(s): D.Yates,B.Udall,J.Barsugli
Contributors: K.Averyt,A.Ray
CoreFunding: AmericanWaterWorksAssociationResearchFoundationFUNDING2009:JAN–DEC
Summary: ThisprojectinvolvesseveralFrontRangewaterprovidersworkingtogethertostudythepotentialimpactsofclimatechangeonwaterresourcesinColorado.TheteamwilluseavarietyofdownscaledGCMprojectionsintwodifferenthydrologymodelstoidentifystreamflowchangesin2040and2070.WWAisservingonaninternaladvisorycommitteetoprovideguidanceonchoosingGCMsandemissionsscenariosalongwithclimatevariablesanddatasetstoputintothehydrologymodels.Inaddition,WWAorganizedaneducationworkshopforthewaterprovidersthatcoveredthefundamentalsanddifferencesofGCMs,emissionsscenarios,downscalingtechniques,andhydrologymodeling.Oncefuturestreamflowsareobtained,WWAwillprovideguidanceonplanningforandcommunicationofresults.
ProposedWork: Aftermodelsarecompletedandcalibrated,theconsultantswillusedownscaledclimatechangeprojectionstocreateaseriesoffuturestreamflowsforseveralpointsineachbasin.Thewaterproviderswillusethesestreamflowprojectionstoassesthepotentialvulnerabilityoftheirwatersuppliestoclimatechange.WWAwillcontinuetosupportthisstudywithclimateeducationandguidanceabouttranslatingcomplexclimateinformationtogoverningboardsandcommunities.
Progress/Results: Thestudynearscompletion(March2010).TheFinalDrafthadcompletedreview,andrevisionsarebeingmade.J.BarsugliparticipatedinmostoftheFrontRangegroup’smonthlymeetings,providedadditionalechnicalguidancethroughinformalcontactwithL.KaatzofDenver,extensivelyreviewedanearlydraftandsubmittedcommentsonthefinaldraft.Inaddition,interactionwithL.KaatzontheWUCAwhitepaperonclimatemodels(above)alsohelpedtoinformtheuseofclimatemodelinformationforthisproject,
Presentations: Twopresentations(above)totheJFRCCVS.PresentationontheFRCCVSbyLaurnaKaatzatAGU.
Publications: FinalReportinRevision(March2010)
ProjectTitle: ColoradoClimateRoadshow:DevelopingaFrameworkforIdentifyingImpactsandVulnerabilitiestoClimateinSupportofAdaptation
PrimaryInvestigator(s): K.Averyt,J.Lukas,C.Alvord,J.Barsugli,N.Doesken
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Contributors: M.Shafer,C.McNuttFUNDING2009:JULY–DEC
CoreFunding: CWCB,WWA
Summary: In2008,WWAresearchersledamajorresearchinitiativeinColoradofocusedonthephysicalaspectsofclimatechangeandvariabilityinthestate.Theresultingpublication(ClimateChangeinColorado)waswellreceivedandhasprovenalandmarkdocumentfordecision‐makersacrossthestate.Inresponse,WWAhasbeenworkingtheCWCBtodevelopa“ColoradoClimateReportRoadshow.”Further,theinitialworkonthereporthassetthestageforasecondphasetothisendeavorthatwillfocusonthevulnerabilitiestotheimpactsofclimatechange.
ProposedWork: TheColoradoClimateRoadshowwillbecomprisedofseveralmodularactivities.Thesewillincludethefollowinggeneralcomponents:“Climate101”,“ClimateinColorado”,and“HowamIVulnerable?”TheClimate101modulewillbebasedontheNOAA‐fundedClimate101WorkshopsdevelopedandimplementedinOklahomabySCCIP.BarsugliandDoeskenwillbeworkingwithSCCIPtotailortheworkshoptoColorado’suniqueaudience.TheClimateinColoradosectionwillbeapresentationontheresultsoftheColoradoClimateReport.Thiscomponentisintendedtomakeglobalclimatechangeamoresalientconcept.Lastly,wehopetoworkwithstakeholderstoaddressthequestion“WhydoesClimateMattertoMe?”Thissectionwillfocusondroughtinthestate,andisintendedtoenabledialoguesacrossmanycommunities.Thiscomponentwillserveasascopingmechanismforphase2oftheColoradoClimateReportbybringingintofocusthedifferentvulnerabilitiesofdifferentsectorsindiverseregionsofColorado.Therewillbeanevaluationcomponenttothiswork.Inaddition,weintendtotransferthelessonslearnedheretoUtah,andtherebyperpetuatethelessonslearnedbyimprovingtheRoadshowmodel.
Progress/Results: Afterinitialtesting,werealizedthattheOklahomaClimate101modulewouldnotbesufficientfortheneedsofthoseinColorado.Consequently,were‐visitedourapproachandre‐developedmuchofthematerialnecessaryfortheworkshop,althoughwedidconsultourcolleaguesatSCCIPandatCLIMASforinputintoourevaluationtoolandpowerpointcontent.
TheWesternWaterAssessment(WWA),inconjunctionwiththeColoradoWaterConservationBoard(CWCB),presentedthe“DealingwithDrought–AdaptingtoaChangingClimate”workshopseriesduringOctober2009inthreelocationsaroundColorado:CastleRock,GlenwoodSprings,andDurango.TheseworkshopsbuiltonthemesandinformationfromboththeClimateChangeinColoradoReportandtheOctober2008ColoradoGovernor’sConferenceonManagingDroughtandClimateRisk.TheWWA,CWCB,andtheNationalIntegratedDroughtInformationSystem(NIDIS),alongwiththeColoradoStateUniversityColoradoClimateCenter(CCC)andtheMountainStudiesInstitutesponsoredthisseriesofworkshops.The80participantsrepresenteddiversesectorsandinterestsaffectedbydroughtandclimate,includingwaterresourcemanagement,agriculture,land‐useplanning,forest&rangemanagement,watershedprotection,environmentalorganizations,andtourism&recreation.Collectively,theparticipants’decision‐makingaffectsnaturalresourcesineveryriverbasininColorado.
Theprimaryobjectivesoftheseworkshopsweretoimprovetheclimateliteracyoftheparticipants,provideinputintotheongoingupdateofthestateDroughtplan,documentparticipants’understandingofclimatechangeinColorado,andaddressconcernsandquestionsamongthisgroupofstakeholdersaboutclimatechange.Theworkshopobjectiveswereachievedthroughpre‐andpost‐workshopevaluations,instructionalpresentations,breakoutdiscussions,andthedistributionofclimateanddroughtinformationinprintedform.Analysisoftheworkshopevaluationsandnotesfrombreakoutsessionsanddiscussionsyieldedthefollowinginformation:
ParticipantsexpressedanunderstandingthatclimateischangingandwillaffectColoradointhepre‐workshopsurveysandindiscussionsduringtheworkshop;however,theyareunclearabouttheroleclimateinformationplaysindecision‐making.Inallthreeworkshops,theparticipants,asagroup,wereabletoreplicatethediverselistofclimatechangeimpactsthatscientistshavealsoidentifiedaspossibilities.However,mostparticipantsindicatedthattheydidnotknowwheretofindclimateinformation,theydidnotknowwhatinformationtheyneeded,ortheydidnotknowhowtouseit.
Thesuiteofresponsestopre‐workshopevaluationquestionsindicatesalackofunderstandingofatleastsomeofthefundamentalsofclimate.Itisworthfurtherworktodeterminewhetherincompleteunderstandingofthefundamentalsofclimateinhibitsactionbythedecision‐makersattendingtheworkshops.
Comparisonofthepre‐andpost‐workshopevaluationresponsessuggestthattheparticipantsvalueclimateinformationspecifictoColoradobutdonotknowwheretofindtheseresources.Inthepre‐workshopevaluation,thosewhoindicatedthattheyuseclimateinformationindecision‐makingprimarilyaccessthatinformationfromfederalorstate‐supportedsources.Afollow‐upquestiononspecificsourcesfoundthatonlytheNationalWeatherServiceandtheNOAAClimatePredictionCenterresourceswereconsultedregularlybyamajorityofparticipants.
Theclimateliteracyofparticipantsimprovedaftertheworkshop.Perhapsrelatedtotheimprovementintheclimateliteracyscores,85%ofparticipantsindicatedinthepost‐workshopevaluationthattheywouldbe“somewhatmorelikely”or“morelikely”touseclimateinformationtoinformresourcemanagementandplanningafterhavingparticipatedintheworkshop;15%saidtheywouldnotchangetheiruseofclimate
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informationcomparedwithbeforethemeeting.
ThegreatestincreaseinperceivedutilityofclimateinformationforplanningpurposeswasforENSOinformationandprecipitationforecasts.Althoughsomeparticipantsindicatedthattheywouldbemorelikelytousereservoirstorageandinflowinformationaftertheworkshop,thepost‐workshopincreaseinparticipants’attitudesabouttheusefulnessoftheseclimateindicatorswaslessthanwhatwasindicatedforotherobservationsandforecasts.
Whenaskedtoidentifymajorchallengesposedbyclimatechange,participantsmostfrequentlyidentifiedthoseissuesthatwillrequirecross‐sectorcollaborationandplanning.Thechallengespresentedbydroughtidentifiedbyworkshopparticipantsalsotendedinvolvecross‐sectorissues,andsuccessfuladaptationeffortsdevelopedduringthe2000sdroughttendedtoinvolveenhancedtrans‐boundarycommunication.Cooperationacrosssectorswasidentifiedasbothapositiveoutcomeofthe2000’sdrought,butwasalsohighlightedasahurdletoproperlydealingwithchallenges.Ingeneral,positiveexamplestendedtoinvolvelocalcollaboration,whilehurdlestendedtoinvolvedifficultiesatthestateandfederallevels.
Aftertheworkshop,59%ofparticipantsbelievedthattheydidnothavealltheclimateinformationnecessarytomakeawell‐informedplanningdecision.Evenso,therewasanincreasedlikelihoodthatparticipantswilluseclimateinformationindecision‐making,(85%aftertheworkshopsvs.65%before).Giventhatparticipantsfoundmanyofthetools,products,andinformationresourcespresentedduringtheworkshopuseful,itislikelythattheywillbeusingtheseparticularresourcesinthefuture.
Presentations: Workshoppresentations:http://wwa.colorado.edu/climate_change/drought09.html
Averyt,K.,C.Alvord,LAJoyce,JLukas,JJBarsugli,GOwen,andBUdall(2009),DevelopingandEvaluatingWorkshopFrameworkstoImproveClimateLiteracy,EosTrans.AGU,90(52),FallMeet.Suppl.,AbstractU13D‐07
Publications: Averyt,K.,Lukas,J.,Alvord,C.,Barsugli,J.,andDoesken,N.(2009)."The‘DealingwithDrought:AdaptingtoaChangingClimate’Workshops:AReportfortheColoradoWaterConservationBoard."(http://wwa.colorado.edu/current_projects/pdfdocs/deal_drought_wrkshp_report_FINAL.pdf)
Partners/Stakeholders NIDIS
ProjectTitle: StateDroughtPlanningintheWesternU.S.A:Multi‐RISA–Agency–NIDISCollaboration
PrimaryInvestigator(s): A.Steinemann
Contributors: B.Udall,G.M.Garfin,D.Cayan,E.Miles,D.White,M.Finucane
CoreFunding: NOAACPOFUNDING2009:JULY–DEC
Summary: TheRISAprogramsupportseffortsto“improvethelinkbetweenclimatesciencesandsociety”and“provideinformationthatdecisionmakerscanusetocopewithdrought”(NOAA,2009).NIDISisdesignedto“serveasanearlywarningsystemfordrought…providingthoseaffectedwiththebestavailableinformationandtoolstoassessthepotentialimpactsofdrought,andtobetterprepareforandmitigatetheeffectsofdrought”(NIDIS,2007).
Thesegoals,whilemutuallyreinforcing,leadtothequestion:Howcandroughtinformationbeprovidedtodecision‐makers,mosteffectively,inordertoreducedroughteffects?Morespecifically,howcanwemakethelinkbetweendroughtinformation(suchasclimateandhydrologicdataandforecasts)anddroughtaction(suchasresponsesandadaptations)?Apromisingandconcretewayisthroughstatedroughtplans. Droughtplansareviewedasaprimarydefenseagainstdrought.Theideaisthatearlywarning,andtimelyaction,canhelptoreducedroughtimpactsandvulnerability.Droughtplanstypicallyspecifythelinksbetweendroughtinformation(operationalizedasindicatorsandtriggers)andcorrespondingactions.
Whilenearlyallstateshavedroughtplansorprograms,theyvarywidelyintheircontentandperceivedeffectiveness—andintheiruseofdroughtinformation.Further,despitewidespreadrelianceonplanstomanagedrought,littlepriorworkhasevaluatedtheseplans,theirdevelopment,andhowearlywarningsystemscouldbeusedtoreducedroughthazards.
Recentwork(e.g.,Steinemann,2006;Steinemannetal.2005)hasidentifiedaneedforimproveddroughtinformationforstatedroughtpreparednessandresponse.Inparticular,asurveyofstatedroughtmanagersinallWesternGovernors’Associationstates(Fontaineetal.,2009)foundthatmoststateslack—butwant—“betterdata”(e.g.,morespecific,reliable,andconsolidated)and“betterguidance”for(a)assessingandpredictingdrought;(b)developingandevaluatingindicatorsandtriggers;(c)monitoringdroughtconditionswithintheirstate,andregionally;(d)justifyingdroughtactions,bothshorttermresponsesandlongertermadaptations;and(e)evaluatingdroughtplans,anddroughtinformationusedbythoseplans.Notably,thesestatedroughtmanagersalsoexpressedinterestandwillingnesstoparticipateinfollow‐updiscussionsandcollaborations—and
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eachwillbeinvolvedinthisproposedproject.
Toaddresstheseopportunitiesandneeds,ourprojectwillinvestigate,evaluate,andseektoimprovetheintegrationandvalueofdroughtinformationforreducingdroughthazardsthroughstatedroughtplanninganddecision‐making.Forinstance,droughtinformation(fromRISAsandpartners)canbelinkedtodroughtindicatorsandtriggers,whichcanthenbelinkedtodroughtactions.
Ouractivities(detailedbelow)willincludecollaborationsamongtheRISAs,NIDIS,NDMC,WRCC,otherpartners,andstatewatermanagersintheWGA,throughseveralfora,includingworkshops,focusgroups,andindividualinteractions.
(1)Howcanclimateinformation,suchasthatprovidedbyRISAs,beintegratedintodroughtplansandstatedroughtdecision‐making?Whatarethepotentialandvaluableapplicationsofthatinformation,andhowwouldthatvaluebeassessed?
(2)Howcanearlywarningsystems,suchasthatbeingdevelopedbyNIDIS,helptoreducedroughtimpactsandvulnerability?Whatdroughtinformationwillprovidetheneededbasistotakeactions,bothshorter‐termresponsesandlonger‐termadaptations?
(3)Howcanstatedroughtplansandplanningactivitiestakeadvantageofclimateandotherdroughtinformation?Forinstance,howcandroughtinformation(e.g.,nowcastsandforecasts)betranslatedintodroughtindicatorsandtriggers?Moregenerally,howcandroughtplans,andtheinformationtheyuse,beevaluatedandimproved?
ProposedWork: OurworkwillbringtogetherthewesternRISAs,agencypartners(includingNIDIS,NDMC,andWRCC),andWGAstatedroughtdecision‐makers,aswellasotheragenciesandstakeholdersidentifiedbythecoregroup.Wewillconductgroupmeetingsandaworkshop(throughteleconferencesandweb‐basedtechniques)tounderstanduserneedsfordroughtdecision‐makingandthepotentialofclimateanddroughtinformation.Whilethespecifictimingandtypesofmeetingsmayevolve,weexpecttoholdearlygroupmeetingswiththeRISAs,partners,andwatermanagers;conductindividualinterviewswitheachstatedroughtmanagerintheWGAstates;thenconvenetheRISAs,partners,watermanagers,andotheridentifiedstakeholdersforaDroughtWorkshop.Togainadeeperunderstandingofdroughtissuesandstakeholderneedsineachstate,beforetheworkshop,thePIwillintervieweachoftheWGAstatedroughtmanagers,usingasurveyinstrument(withinputfromRISAsandpartners),toexplorethefollowingdimensions,amongothers,whichwillalsobeexploredinourworkshops:
*Useofdroughtinformation:Towhatextentdostatesincorporatedroughtinformation,suchasthatdevelopedbytheRISAsandpartners,intotheirdroughtplansandprograms?Whatinformationdotheyuse,andfindmostuseful?Dotheyincorporateclimatechangeandclimatevariabilityintodecision‐making?Whattypesofinformationwouldbeneededandusefulformakingdroughtdecisions?
*Valueofinformation:Howdostatesevaluatetheimportanceofdroughtinformationtohelpprepareforandadapttodrought?Whatarethemetricsofvalue?Whatistheroleofuncertainty?Whattypesofinformationareneededforearlywarning,orforlonger‐termadaptations?Whataretherelativerisksoffalseassurance(forecastofnodrought,butdroughtdevelops)orfalsealarm(forecastofdrought,butnodroughtdevelops)?
*Indicatorsandtriggers:Whichonesarecurrentlyused?Howweretheydeveloped?Whataretheirtemporalscales,spatialscales,andsectoralemphases?Aretheylinkedwithdroughtmanagementgoals?Howcantheyprovideearlywarning?Aretheyevaluated;howdostatesknowiftheywork?
*Responsesandadaptations:Whataretheactionsinthedroughtplan,andhowaretheylinkedwithdroughtinformation?Haveclimateadaptationplansbeenusefulfordroughtadaptation?Whatarethetradeoffsbetweenshort‐termadjustmentsandlong‐termadaptation?Doshort‐termresponsespromoteorimpairtheabilitytoreducelong‐termvulnerability?
*Interstateandintrastatedroughtplanning:Dostatescoordinatewithotherstatesonregionaldroughtplanningactivities?Whatisthepotentialorneedforaninterstateorbasin‐widedroughtplan?Withineachstate,howdoregionalandlocaldroughtplansmeshwithstate‐leveldroughtplans?
*Underservedpopulations:Dostatedroughtplanningactivitiesprovidespecificinteractionswithunderservedgroups,suchastribes?Whataboutareaswithoutequalaccesstoclimateandotherinformation?
*Effectiveness:Howdostatesknowifdroughtinformationandplansareeffective,andwhatarethemetricsof“effectiveness”?Whatconstitutes“preparedness”?
*Lessons:Whatbroaderlessonshavebeenlearned?Whatcaneachstatesharewithotherstates?What’sneeded?
Progress/Results: Workonthisprojecthasbeendelayed.Becausefundingwasallocatedalready,thisprojectwillfallinasa“nocostextension”andresultswillbereportedinsubsequentyears.
Partners/Stakeholders NationalDroughtMitigationCenter,WesternRegionalClimaticCenter,NIDIS
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CoreActivities
TheCoreManagementTeamisalsoresponsibleformaintainingandfulfillingobligationsrelatingtooutreachandeducation,andpromotingcommunicationamongtheRISAsandwithotherfederalpartners.During2009,theWWAcontinueditslong‐standingreputationwithstakeholdersanddecision‐makersasatrustedsourceofclimateinformation.Collectively,WWAresearchersgaveover100publictalksandseminars(AppendixII);werecited,quotedorinterviewedbythemediaover50times(AppendixV);andservedasmembersofmanycommitteesandorganizations(Table4).Inaddition,inourcontinuingeffortstoexpandclimateliteracy,WWAsponsoredseveralworkshopsacrosstheIntermountainWest(Table5).Therearealsoseveralprojectsthatwithinthepurviewofcoremanagementactivities–allofwhicharefocusedonenhancingoutreach,communicationandeducation(Table6).
Table4.2009Organizations,CommitteesandCoordinationActivitieswithWWAMembers
• AmericanBarAssociation,PublicLandsandLandUseCommittee,SectiononNaturalResources,EnergyandEnvironmentalLaw
• AmericanMeteorologicalSociety,ClimateChange&VariabilityCommittee
• AmericanWaterResourcesAssociation
• AssociationofMetropolitanWaterAgencies(AMWA)
• CarpeDiemProject
• CenterforResearchConservation(CRC)• ClimateChangeandWaterWorkingGroup(CCAWG)
• ColoradoDivisionofWildlifeClimateChangeAdvisoryBoard
• ColoradoScientificSociety
• CoordinatedResearchConsortiumfortheColoradoRiverDelta
• DividingtheWatersProject
• EcologicalSocietyofAmerica
• FrontiersinEcologyandEnvironment
• GreaterYellowstoneCoalition• IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)
• JointFrontRangeClimateChangeVulnerabilityStudy
• NationalIntegratedDroughtInformationSystemImplementationTeam
• NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration,Near‐TermObjectivesTeam:ClimateAssessments
• TheNatureConservancy• UnionofConcernedScientists,EnergyandWaterinaWarmingWorldProgram
• UniversityofColorado,RenewableandSustainableEnergyInstitute
• USGlobalChangeResearchProgram(USGCRP)
• WaterAvailabilityTaskForce(WATF)
• WaterResearchFoundation(WRF)
• WaterUtilitiesClimateAlliance(WUCA)
• WesternSnowConference
• WesternStatesWaterCouncil(WSWC)
• WesternGovernors’Association(WGA)
Table5.2009WWA‐SponsoredWorkshops
Title Date Location Details
NIDISClimate,DroughtandEarlyWarningonWesternNativeLands
June9–11,2009GrandTetonNationalPark,WY
http://wwa.colorado.edu/Proposals/2010/Docs/NIDIS_Jackson_Hole_Report_Mar2010.pdf
DealingwithDrought:AdaptingtoaChangingClimate
October13,2009 CastleRock,COhttp://wwa.colorado.edu/climate_change/drought09.html
DealingwithDrought:AdaptingtoaChangingClimate
October16,2009GlenwoodSprings,CO
http://wwa.colorado.edu/climate_change/drought09.html
DealingwithDrought:AdaptingtoaChangingClimate
October22,2009 Durango,COhttp://wwa.colorado.edu/climate_change/drought09.html
USForestServiceWesternWatershedsandClimateChange:WaterandAquaticSystemToolsWorkshop
November17–19,2009 Boulder,COhttp://www.fs.fed.us/rmrs/climate‐change/water‐watersheds/
MakingConnections:PineBeetles,Water,Climate,Fire,andtheFutureForest
December7,2009 Boulder,COhttp://wwa.colorado.edu/ecology/beetle/other.html
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Table6.CoreActivities
ProjectTitle: WWAWebsiteReorganization
PrimaryInvestigator(s): J.Lukas,K.Averyt
Contributors: B.Udall,A.Ray,C.Alvord
CoreFunding: WWA
Summary: ThisprojectwasamajorundertakingbyWWAtoreorganizeitswebsite,andmaketheportalmoreuser‐friendly.Webdevelopmentisaprimaryresearchandoutreachtoolthatcanserveasaclearinghouseofinformation,educationresource,facilitateprojectcollaboration,andfosterpartnershipforawiderangeofusergroups.
ProposedWork: WWAworkedcloselywithaconsultanttoredesignthehomepage,subpages,andhtmlprogrammingneeds.Thenewwebpagecontentandpresentationiscenteredontopicheadingstoappealtoawiderangeofusergroupsandcorrespondingknowledgebase.Topicheadingsinclude:“ColoradoRiver”,“FrontRange”,“WesternHydrology”,“WaterManagementandDrought”,“ClimateVariabilityandChange”,and“ForecastsandOutlooks.”ThenewwebsitewentliveinAugust2008.However,wenowneedtorefinecontenttoreflectournewresearchfoci.
Progress/Results: In2009,inadditiontoroutineupdatingandmaintenance,severalkeyenhancementsweremadetotheWWAwebsite,includingthedevelopmentofdatabasesofWWApublications(http://wwa.colorado.edu/about_us/DBPubs.html)andpresentations(http://wwa.colorado.edu/about_us/present.html)since1999.Workwillcontinuein2010todevelopmorecontenttosupportthenewresearchfoci.The“Tools&Products”sectiondescribedbelowisclosetocompletion.
ProjectTitle: BestPracticesforIdentifyingQualityObservationalDatasets
PrimaryInvestigator(s): N.Doesken,R.Gillies,K.Wolter
Contributors: K.Averyt
CoreFunding: CWCB,WWAFUNDING2009:JAN–DEC
Summary: TheColoradoandUtahstateclimatologistshavedevelopeduniquewebsitesthatusethebestavailabledatatoshowobservedclimatetrends.Thedataareavailableforpublicaccessandmapsandmenusmakeiteasytofindandselectdataforanalysisandgraphing.Datagraphicscanonlybeviewedaftersiteusersarefirstpresentedwithfullaccuratedescriptionsofthehistoryofeachstationincludingstationmovesandobservationalchangesthroughhistorythatcouldaffecttheobservedtrends.
ProposedWork: ThegroupwilldevelopapublicationoffindingsandrecommendationsonbestpracticesfordevelopingandinterpretinghistoricrecordsandtimeseriesanditwillbesubmittedtotheAmericanAssociationofStateClimatologistsonlineJournalofServiceClimatology.ThispaperwillalsodocumentourselectionprocessofthebeststationrecordsinColoradoandUtahinordertofacilitatesimilaranalysesinneighboringstates.
Wewillattempttoextendthistypeofanalysisandproductstoneighboringstates.IfwesucceedinenlargingthescopeofthisprojectbeyondColorado,theWesternRegionalClimateCenterwouldbealogicalnextwebhostforWesternU.S.productsofthistype.ThisfeedsdirectlyintosupportofaNationalClimateService.
Progress/Results: TheColoradoClimateTrendswebsitewaslaunchedduringthefallof2009aftermorethantwoyearsofplanning,preparation,dataanalysisandmetadataassessment.Sofar,feedbackhasbeenpositiveandhasmostlycomefromwatermanagersinColoradowhohaveperusedthesite.Theuniquefeatureofthissiteisitsfocusonmetadata.Usersoftimeseriesdatausuallycaneasilyviewnarrativedescriptionsofstationchangesovertimeandthenseewhat,ifany,impactthosechangeshavehadontimeseriescontinuity.Graphingtoolstoaccompanythesitehavenotyetbeenactivated.Manyofthetimeseries,evenforthebestselectedstations,stillhavesomemissingdatawhichhadthepotentialforfoulinggraphingproducts.OverallfindingsbasedonColoradodataarethattherearenopuretimeserieswithhomogeneousdatafortheentireperiodofrecordgoingback80to120years.Thereareveryfewstationwithidealdatafortimeseriesanalysiseveninthepast40‐50years.Stationmoves,timeofobservationchangesandchangesofinstrumentation(movingfromthetraditionalliquidinglassthermometersincottonregionshelterstoelectronicinstrumentationinplasticradiationshieldsallhavethepotentialforintroducingdiscontinuitiestolongtermdatarecords.Recentcoolweatherduringthelastfewwintersandduringthesummerof2009allhaveprovidedanoticeabledampingtopreviouslyobservedstrongupwardtrendsintemperature.SimilarworkhasnotyetbeencompletedinUtahbutwill
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hopefullybecompletedin2010.Amanuscriptisbeingoutlinedthatwilldescribetheprocessesthathavebeenusedandtheresultsthathavebeenfound.
Presentations: NolanDoeskengaveapresentationatColoradoWaterCongress,January2010meetinginDenverdescribingandshowcasingtheColoradoClimateTrendswebsite.PresentationsattheClimateRoadshow,ajointCWCB,WWA,ColoradoClimateCenterendeavorreferencedclimatetrendsandtheClimateTrendswebsite.BriefreferencestotheColoradoClimateTrendswebsitewereincludedinseveralotherpresentationsduringthepastyearincludingtheSouthPlatteWaterForumandtheArkansasRiverBasinWaterForum
Publications: AshortarticleintheColoradoWaterInstitutenewsletterwaspublisheddescribingtheColoradoClimateTrendswebsiteduringthefallof2009
Partners/Stakeholders NOAA
ProjectTitle: IntermountainWestClimateSummary
PrimaryInvestigator(s): J.Lukas,C.Alvord,K.Averyt,A.Ray,K.Wolter
Contributors: G.Bates,E.Gordon,R.Balaji,J.Barsugli,B.Udall,C.Alvord
CoreFunding: WWAFUNDING2009:JAN–DEC
Summary: TheIntermountainWestClimateSummary(IWCS)providesthelatestclimateinformationinasimplecompactdocumentaimedatmanagers,planners,andpolicymakerswithwater‐relatedinterests.Byimprovingawarenessandunderstandingaboutforecastsaswellasclimatephenomenon,theclimatesummaryhelpsWWAfacilitateadialogamongpotentialusers,researchersandoperationalprovidersofclimateinformationwiththeultimategoalofprovidingenhancedclimateservices.BeginninginMarch2009,theIWCSisreleasedfivetimesperyearandispostedontheWWAwebsite:http://wwa.colorado.edu/IWCS/index.html(IWCSe‐mail:[email protected]).
TheIWCSprovidesavaluableservicebyinterpretingandtranslatingclimateinformationandforecastsaswellasincludingtwotypesofsummaryarticles.ThefirstisaFeatureArticle,whichsummarizescurrentclimateandwater‐relatedresearchandaFocusPage,whichdescribesaclimateservice.
ProposedWork: Implementchangestoscheduleandorganizationbasedon2008userevaluation:
‐MakeIWCSentirelywebbased
‐Decreasefrequencyfrom8timesperyearto5timesperyear.
‐Eliminateredundantpages(statewateravailability)andcombineothers(temperature,precipitation,droughtmonitor,StandardizedPrecipitationIndex)tocreatesingle“recentconditions”page
WorkwithKellyRedmondandtheWesternRegionalClimateCentertosubmitTRACSproposaltotheClimateProgramOfficeandtransferthebulkoftheIWCStotheWRCC.WWAwillcontinuetowriteFeaturearticlesandFocuspages,andincludeWWAresearchhighlightstocreateaquarterlyWWAnewsletter.
Progress/Results: Thenewweb‐basedHTMLformatoftheIWCSwasunveiledwiththeMarch2009issue,withastreamlinedandmore‐userfriendlycontentandorganizationasoutlinedabove.Subsequentissuesin2009(April,May,July,October)continuedthisformat,anduserfeedbackregardingthechangehasbeenuniformlypositive.ProductionoftheIWCSnowtakesfarlessWWAstafftimeperissue,withlittle,ifany,lossofoveralleffectivenessinconveyingtimelyandsalientclimateinformation.TheFeatureArticlesandFocusPagescontinuetoaccompanyeachissue,andremaininPDFformatforeaseofprintingandsharing.NearlyallofthesearticlesarewrittenexpresslyfortheIWCS.
Presentations: Lowrey,J.EvaluationoftheIntermountainWestClimateSummary:LessonsforCommunicatingClimateInformation.ClimatePredictionApplicationsScienceWorkshop(CPASW)2009,Norman,OK,March24,2009.
Publications: IssuesoftheIWCScanbefoundhere:http://wwa.colorado.edu/IWCS/index.html
Partners/Stakeholders M.L’Heureux(NOAACPC),G.Garfin(CLIMAS),J.Smith(Stratus)
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ProjectTitle: ClimateTrainingofFederalScientists
PrimaryInvestigator(s): B.Udall,R.Webb,C.Hennig,L.Brekke
Contributors: K.Averyt
CoreFunding: NOAA,USBRFUNDING2009:JULY–DEC
Summary: Theemergingrealityofclimatechangepresentsanadditionalarrayofcomplex,newconsiderationsthattheWesternwatercommunitymustnowintegrateintotheiranalysis,planning,anddecision‐makingprocesses.Climatechangescientistsarerapidlydevelopingnew,usefulknowledge.TheobstacletouseisthelackofaneffectivevenuefortheresearchcommunitytotransferthenewknowledgeandcapabilitiestotheWesternwatercommunity;andprovidetrainingontheassociatedlimitations,uncertainties,andcorrectutilizationofthenewknowledgeandcapabilitiesastheyemerge.Thisneedhasbeenconsistentlyidentifiedasahighpriorityinmanyrecentvenuesincluding:
February2008ClimateChangeandWesternWaterGroup(CCAWWG)workshopwithReclamationwaterandenvironmentalcompliancepractitionersandmanagers
March2008U.S.ClimateChangeScienceProgram(CCSP)workshopwithWesternstatesandmunicipalities
November2007WesternStatesWaterCouncilconference:“WaterPoliciesandPlanningintheWest:EnsuringaSustainableFuture”
FindingfromSeptember2007NRCReport,“EvaluatingProgressoftheU.S.ClimateChangeScienceProgram:MethodsandPreliminaryResults”:
“Discoveryscienceandunderstandingofclimatesystemsareproceedingwell,buttheuseofthatknowledgetosupportdecisionmakingandtomanagerisksandopportunitiesofclimatechangeisproceedingslowly”
FindingfromAugust2007GAOReport:GAO‐07‐863:
“Resourcemanagershavelimitedguidancefromtheiragenciesaboutwhetherorhowtoaddressclimatechangeinmanagementactionsandplanningefforts”
ProposedWork: SponsoringfederalagencieswillworkwiththeRISAProgramuniversitiestodevelopatrainingprogramscopetargetedatensuringrelevant,practicalintegrationofbestavailableclimatechangeinformationintothetechnicalstudiesthatsupportfederalwaterresourcedecision‐makingintheWest.Engagementwithnon‐federal,westernwatermanagementinterests(e.g.state,municipal,irrigatedagriculture)willbeintegratedintothedevelopmentofthetrainingprogramsothatcommonneedsareeffectivelydesignedintothetrainingprogram.ThiswillpositionthetrainingprogramtoberobustandusefultotheWesternwatercommunityofpracticefromtheonset.Providestructured,technicaltrainingtoWesternwaterpractitioners,planners,technicalspecialistsand/ordecision‐makers(akaWesternwatercommunity)throughtheuniversity‐basedRegionalIntegratedSciencesandAssessments(RISA)program.TheRISAcentersprovideaccesstointernationallyrecognizedtechnicalexpertsinclimatechangescience.
Progress/Results: Allpartiesagreedtodelayworkonthisprojectuntiltheregionalclimateservicesinitiativeswithintheparticipatingfederalentitiesemerged.Thisprojectwillfallinasa“nocostextension”andresultswillbereportedinsubsequentyears.
Partners/Stakeholders USBR,NOAA
ProjectTitle: InformingtheResponsibleUseofClimateModels&ProjectionsbyStakeholders
PrimaryInvestigator(s): J.Barsugli
Contributors: G.Guentchev,I.Rangwala,L.Brekke,L.Mearns
CoreFunding: WWAFUNDING2009:JULY–DEC
Summary: Thepurposeofthisprojectistoconnectstakeholderswithclimatechangeprojectiondatainamannerthatleadstoimpactsandvulnerabilityassessmentsthataccuratelyreflectthestateofscientificunderstandingoftheclimate.
Twotrendsareabouttocollide:First,stakeholders(includingFederalagencieswithlandandwatermanagementresponsibilitiestomunicipalandregionalwaterproviders)areclamoringforclimatechangeinformationtoinformimpactsassessments.Inmanycasesthistranslatesintoarequestfordownscaledclimateprojectionsand
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guidanceonhowtousethedata.Second,manynewdatasetsofdownscaledclimateprojectionshaverecentlycomeonline,suchasReclamation’sstatisticallydownscaledclimateprojectionarchive(http://gdo‐dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip3_projections/),orareabouttocomeonline,suchasthelargeandcomplexNARCCAP(NorthAmericanRegionalClimateChangeAssessmentProgramwww.narccap.ucar.edu)archiveofdynamicallydownscaledprojections.Withoutsomeguidance,thereisthepotentialthatthisavalancheofinformationmayleadtoaconfusingarrayofassessments.
Foronestakeholderperspective,considerthecongressionaltestimonyofDavidBeharoftheWaterUtilitiesClimateAlliance(Behar,2009):
“I’veseenfrommyownpersonalexperiencebothattheSFPUCandasaboardmemberatMMWDhowdifficultitcanbetoaccesssoundclimateinformation.Evenasophisticatedwateragencyhasdifficultyfindinganswerstothemostbasicquestionsandaccessingdatacompatiblewiththeirsystemsmodels.Universityresearchersarebusyteachingandpublishing,agencystaffinWashingtonD.C.areunknowntous,andthosewhowecall“users”ofclimateinformationareoftenlefttoscramblehaphazardlytocollecttidbitsofinformationfromamultiplicityofsourcesasweseektocreateresilientcommunitiesreadytoadapttotheeffectsofclimatechange.”
Beharseesthegoalofproviding“accessiblescience”ascentraltoaNationalClimateService,andcommendstheRISAsforbeinga“notabledemonstrationmodel.”Intheseterms,themissionoftheproposedclearinghouseistoprovide“accessiblescience”tostakeholdersinourregionregardingdownscaledclimateprojections.SincetheNCShasnotyetbeendefined,letaloneimplemented,itisstillessentialthattheRISAsengageinthisactivity.Wehaveproposedacross‐RISAcomponentsothattheWWAeffortcanlearnfromthoseRISAswhohaveparticipatedinimpactsassessments,andsothatcommon“lessonslearned”canbecommunicatedtoNOAAregardingtheseefforts.
Progress/Results:
Inretrospect,thesuccessthispastyearhasbeeninthecommunicationoftheuseandinterpretationofclimatechangeinformationtovariousstakeholders.MuchofmyworkalongtheselineswassupportedbythecollaborationbetweenWesternWaterandNOAA/ESRL/PSD,particularlywithregardtoFederalPartnerssuchastheUSFWS,USFS,andNWS.WorkwithReclamationhasincludedparticipationintheCCAWWG,aswellastheReclamationScienceandTechnologyHydrologyWorkingGroup.
Thesecondsuccesshadbeenworkonevaluationofdatasetsusedinclimatechange.WorkingwithLeviBrekkeandDavidRaffofReclamationandwithLindaMearnsfromNCAR,wearedevelopingaproposaltorunNARCCAP‐basedprojectionsthroughcalibratedhydrologymodelingforcomparisontothe“simple”downscalingthatispresentlyusedbyReclamation.Theintentionistotaketheseresultsthroughtheevaluationofsystemperformancemetricstojudgewhetherdownscalingmethodmakesadifferenceindecisionrelevantmetrics.ThedelayinthereleaseoftheNARCCAPdatahashamperedthisstudy,butitwillbepursuedinthecomingmonths.
Presentations: Manyoftheseareworkshopswherethegoalwastoinformtheintegrationofclimatechangeprojectionswithresourcemanagement.
Barsugli,J.(2009).ClimateChangeandAgriculture.SouthwestMarketingNetwork(SustainableAgriculture),Durango,CO.
Barsugli,J.(2009).BringingClimateChangeHome:WhatProjectionsSayforColorado’sWaterResources.(TrainingforhighSchoolScienceTeachers),Boulder,CO
Barsugli,J.(2009).ClimateChangeattheRegionalLevel.USFWSMountainPrairieRegionEcologicalServices2009ProjectLeadersMeeting,Denver,CO.
Barsugli,J.(2009).WhitepaperonImprovementstoClimateModelstoProvideUsefulInformationtoWaterManagers..FrontRangeWaterProvidersDenver,CO.
Barsugli,J.(2009).WhitepaperonImprovementstoClimateModelstoProvideUsefulInformationtoWaterManagers.AspenGlobalChangeInstitute,Aspen,CO.
Barsugli,J.(2009).ClimateModelsandScenariosofClimateChangeintheWesternUnitedStates.USFSWesternWatershedsandClimateChangeWorkingGroup,Boulder,CO.
Barsugli,J.(2009).GunnisonRiverClimateHistoryandChange.TNCGunnisonClimateAdaptationWorkshop,Gunnison,CO.
Barsugli,J.(2009).What’sneededfromclimatemodelingtoadvanceactionablescienceforwaterutilities?.AmericanGeophysicalUnion,SanFrancisco,CO.
Publications: Barsugli,J.,J.Joseph,etal.(2009)."OptionsforImprovingClimateModelingtoAssistWaterUtilityPlanningforClimateChange[WhitePaper]."WaterUtilityClimateAlliance:146.
Partners/Stakeholders Reclamation,CWCB,FrontRangeWaterProviders,ESRL/PSD,BLM,USFWS,USFS,TheNatureConservancy
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LookingAhead
Lastyear,theWesternWaterAssessmentunderwentasignificantreorganizationintendedtobroadenthescopeofourresearchandbuildonthestrengthsofresearchersintheIntermountainWestcommunity.WecreatedanAdvisoryBoardofkeystakeholders(Table7)withtheintentiontheywouldbetterinformingusoftheefficacyoftheprojectsoutlinedaboveintheregionalcommunity.OurfirstAdvisoryBoardMeetingwasheldinApril2010,andtheinputreceivedfromthatmeetingwillbereflectedintheFY2011WWAStatementofWork.
Table7.AdvisoryBoardMembers
TimothyBrick Chairman,MetropolitanWaterDistrict,SouthernCalifornia
CurtisBrown Director,ResearchandDevelopment,ReclamationScienceandTechnology
TerranceFulp DeputyRegionalDirectoroftheBureauofReclamation’sLowerColoradoRegion
JenniferGimbel Director,ColoradoWaterConservationBoard
MelindaKassen Director,WesternWaterProject,TroutUnlimited
EricKuhn GeneralManager,ColoradoRiverWaterConservationDistrict
ChuckKutscher PrincipalEngineer,NationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory,DepartmentofEnergy
PatriciaMulroy GeneralManager,SouthernNevadaWaterAuthority
WilliamNeff Director,PhysicalScienceDivision,NOAAEarthSystemResearchLaboratory
MichelleSchmidt HydrologistinCharge,NOAAColoradoBasinRiverForecastCenter
JimVerdin DeputyDirector,NationalIntegratedDroughtInformationSystem(NIDIS),USGS
MarcWaage Manager,WaterResourcesPlanningDivision,DenverWater
RobertWigington WesternWaterPolicyCounsel,TheNatureConservancy
TheWWAAdvisoryboardwascreatedtohelpusdirectourresourcesinthemostresponsivemannerpossibletoourstakeholdersandtoNOAA.TheAdvisoryBoardhas,andwillcontinuetoprovideinputintoourresearchthemesandproposedprojects,andwillprovidesimilarinputintoourentireprogram.
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AppendixI.PersonnelandStakeholders
TableA‐1.WWAPersonnel
TeamMember Title Expertise
Alexander,Michael Scientist,NOAAESRLPhysicalSciencesDivision ClimateExtremesAlvord,Christina ResearchAssociate,WesternWaterAssessment TribalRelations,Outreach
Averyt,Kristen DeputyDirector,WesternWaterAssessmentClimatology,AssessmentProcesses
Barsugli,Joseph ResearchAssociate,CIRES,Univ.ofColorado ClimateDynamics
Bates,Gary ResearchAssociate,CIRES,Univ.ofColorado ClimateModeling
Burke,Indy Director,HaubSchool&RuckelshausInstitute,Univ.ofWyoming Ecology,RenewableResources
Cozzetto,KarenPost‐doctoralResearchAssociate,DepartmentofEnvironmentalStudies,UniversityofColorado
Hydroclimatology,surfacewaterhydrologyandecology
Deems,Jeff ResearchAssociate,CIRES,Univ.ofColorado ClimateandSnowModeling
Doesken,Nolan
ColoradoStateClimatologist,CSU Climatology
Dilling,Lisa AssistantProfessor,EnvironmentalStudies,Univ.ofColorado ClimateInfo.andDecision‐Making
Eischeid,Jon ResearchAssociate,CIRES,Univ.ofColorado ClimateModeling
Getches,David Dean,Univ.ofColoradoLawSchool NaturalResourcesLaw
Gillies,Robert UtahStateClimatologist,UtahStateUniv. Climatology
Goemans,Chris AssistantProfessor,AgriculturalandResourceEconomics,CSU WaterResourceEconomics
Gordon,Eric ProgramManager(beginningJuly12010),WesternWaterAssessment ClimateAdaptation
Gray,Stephen WyomingStateClimatologist,Univ.ofWyoming ClimatologyandPaleoclimatology
Guentchev,GalinaPost‐doctoralResearchAssociate,UniversityCorporationforAtmosphericResearch(UCAR),CLIVAR,PostdocsApplyClimateExpertise
ClimateModeling
Hoerling,Martin Scientist,NOAAESRLPhysicalSciencesDivision ClimateVariability,Hydrology
Jackson,Steve Professor,Botany,Univ.ofWyoming Ecology
Kenney,Douglas Director,WesternWaterPolicyProgram,NRLC,Univ.ofColorado WesternWaterPolicyandLaw
Klein,Roberta ManagingDirectorofCSTPR,Univ.ofColorado EnvironmentalPolicy
Lukas,Jeffrey SeniorResearchAssociate,WesternWaterAssessment Paleohydrology,ForestEcology
Mahoney,KellyPost‐doctoralResearchAssociate,UniversityCorporationforAtmosphericResearch(UCAR),CLIVAR,PostdocsApplyClimateExpertise
Extremeprecipitation,numericalmodeling,warmseasonconvection
McAfee,StephanieNationalResearchCouncilAssociate,PhysicalSciencesDivision(PSD),EarthSystemsResearchLaboratory(ESRL),NOAA
Climate&Biogeochemistry
McCutchan,James DeputyDirector,CenterforLimnology,CIRES,Univ.ofColorado Limnology
Neff,JasonAssociateProfessor,GeologicalSciences&EnvironmentalStudies,Univ.ofColorado
Biogeochemistry
Neff,William Director,PSD,NOAAESRL AtmosphericPhysics
Nowak,Kenneth PhDCandidate,CADSWES,Univ.ofColorado Hydrology
Painter,Thomas AssistantProfessor,Geography,Univ.ofUtah Hydrology
Rajagopolan,Balaji AssociateProfessor,CivilEngineering,Univ.ofColorado Hydrology
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TeamMember Title Expertise
Rangwala,ImtiazPost‐doctoralResearchAssociate,UniversityCorporationforAtmosphericResearch(UCAR),CLIVAR,PostdocsApplyClimateExpertise
HighElevationClimatology
Ray,AndreaScientist,ClimateAnalysisBranch,NOAAESRLPhysicalSciencesDivision
Climate‐SocietyInteractions,WaterManagement
Squillace,Mark Director,NRLC,Univ.ofColorado NaturalResourcesLaw
Steffen,Konrad Director,CIRES,Univ.ofColorado Climatology
Travis,William AssociateProfessor,Geography;Director,CSTPR,Univ.ofColoradoNaturalhazards;climateimpactsandadaptation
Udall,Bradley Director,WesternWaterAssessment ColoradoRiver,Hydrology,Policy
vanDrunick,Suzanne AssistantDirectorforScience,CIRES,Univ.ofColorado HydrologyandEcology
Webb,RobertS Chief,ClimateAnalysisBranch,NOAAESRLPhysicalSciencesDivision Paleoclimatology
Wolter,Klaus ResearchAssociate,CIRES,Univ.ofColorado Climatology
TableA‐2.WWAStakeholdersandPartners
FEDERAL
Organization MajorContact(s)
BureauofLandManagement EdwardRumbold(CO),RoddHardy(UT),ScottArcher(CO)JeffKitchens(CO)
BureauofReclamation CurtBrown,ChuckHennig,TerryFulp,LeviBrekke,JamesPrairie,CarlyJerla,DavidRaff,AvraMorgan
EnvironmentalProtectionAgency LauraFarris(Region8)
NationalParkService BrentFrakes(RockyMountainNetwork),DaveSharrow(ZionNP),JudyVisty(RockyMountainNP),LeighWelling(ClimateChangeCoordinator)
NationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory ChuckKutscher,RobinNewmark,LarryFlowers
NaturalResourcesConservationService RandyJulander(UT),MikeGillespie(CO),LeeHackleman(WY);JanCurtis(NationalWaterandClimateCenter)
NationalIntegratedDroughtInformationSystem(NIDIS) RogerPulwarty,JamesVerdin,ChadMcNutt,LisaDarby,MikeBrewer
NOAAClimateServicesDivision AhshaTribble,DianaPerfect
NOAAESRLCommunicationsandOutreach CarolKnight,Anatta,KatyHuman
NOAANationalDroughtMitigationCenter MikeHayes
NWSBillings,MTWFO DonaldMoore
NWSBoulder,COWFO LarryMooney,MikeBaker,TresteHuse
NWSCentralRegionHQ DougKluck
NWSCheyenne,WYWFO JohnEise,MelissaGoering
NWSClimatePredictionCenter WayneHiggins,MichelleL’Heureux,EdO’Lenic,JonGottschalck,MikeHalpert
NWSColoradoBasinRiverForecastCenter KevinWerner,MichelleSchmidt
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NWSGrandJunction,COWFO JoeRamey,JohnKyle
NWSHastings,NEWFO MichaelLewis
NWSMissoula,MTWFO RobertNester
NWSMissouriBasinRiverForecastCenter GreggSchalk,JohnLague,TomGurss
NWSNorthPlatte,NEWFO BrianHirsch,ChristopherButtler
NWSPocatello,IDWFO MikeHuston
NWSRiverton,WYWFO ArthurMeunier,BrettMcDonald,JamesFahey
NWSSaltLakeCity,UTWFO BrianMcInerney
NWSSouthernRegionHQ VictorMurphy
NWSWesternRegionHQ AndreaBair,JeffZimmerman
U.S.ArmyCorpsofEngineers ThomasJohnson
U.S.FishandWildlifeService DavidCampbell,GeorgeSmith,TomCzapla
U.S.ForestService LindaJoyce,ChuckRhoades(RMRS),PollyHays(Region2),RickHopson
U.S.GeologicalSurvey MichaelDettinger,DanCayan,JayCederberg,JayneBelnap,WarrenDay,JennyBriggs
USDAAgriculturalResearchService JeanneSchneider
STATE
Organization MajorContact
CaliforniaDept.ofWaterResources JeanineJones
ColoradoWaterConservationBoard JenniferGimbel,VevaDeheza,TarynHutchins‐Cabibi,BenWade
ColoradoDivisionofWaterResources/StateEngineer’sOffice AlanMartellaro,DonWest
ColoradoRiverCommissionofNevada NicoleEverett
ColoradoStateLegislature GaryLindstrom
ColoradoDepartmentofPublicHealthandtheEnvironment GinnyBrannon
ColoradoDivisionofWildlife TomSchreiner
NewMexicoInterstateStreamCommission MarkMurphy
NewMexicoStateEngineer’sOffice JohnLongworth
UtahDepartmentofNaturalResources KevinValcare,MatthewLindon
UtahDivisionofForestry ScottZeidler
UtahDivisionofWaterResources CraigMiller
UtahGovernor’sOffice JulieBreckenridge,LisCohen
WyomingAttorneyGeneral’sOffice JaneCaton
WyomingStateEngineer’sOffice BeckyMathisen,RandyTullis,JohnShields,MattHoobler
WyomingWaterDevelopmentCommission BruceBrinkman,BarryLawrence,L.MikeBesson
LOCAL
Organization MajorContact
AuroraWater,CO D.AlfredoRodriguez,KevinReidy,Amy
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Klabunde,MikeMcHugh
BoulderCountyParksandOpenSpace ChadJulian,ThereseGlowacki
CentennialWaterandSanitationDistrict,CO JohnHendrick,RickMcLoud
CheyenneBoardofPublicUtilities,WY ClintBassett,HermanNoe,TimothyWilson
CityofBoulder,CO CarolEllinghouse
CityofFortCollins,CO DennisBode,DonnieDustin
CityofLafayette,CO DouglasShort,PeterJohnson
CityofLouisville,CO DanMathes,TomPhare
CityofThornton,CO EmilyHunt,MarkKoleber,GregJohnson
CityofWestminster,CO MikeHappe,JoshNims,StuFeinglas
ColoradoRiverWaterConservationDistrict,CO EricKuhn,DaveKanzer
ColoradoSpringsUtilities BrettGracely,KevinLusk,LeonBasdekas
ColoradoWaterwiseCouncil PaulLander
DenverWater MarkWaage,RobertSteger,LaurnaKaatz,DonKennedy
MetropolitanWaterDistrictofSouthernCA JanMatusak,PeterJacobsen
MojaveValleyIrrigationandDrainageDist.,AZ DonaldCurrie
NorthernColoradoWaterConservancyDistrict,CO AndyPineda,EstherVincent
ProvoRiverWaterUsersAssoc. JeffBudge
PuebloWaterBoard,CO AlanHamel
RoaringForkConservancy,CO SharonClarke
S.AdamsCountyWaterandSanitationDist. GregFabisiak
SaltLakeCityPublicUtilities LarryAlserada
SouthernNevadaWaterAuthority PatriciaMulroy
TaosPueblo GilbertSuazo
UpperGunnisonRiverWaterConservancyDistrict,CO RalphGrover
UtahWaterUsersAssociation CarleyBurton
WeberBasinWater,UT MarkAnderson
WesternAreaPowerAuthority ClaytonPalmer
UNIVERSITY
Organization MajorContact
ClimateAssessmentfortheSouthwest(CLIMAS),UniversityofArizona
DanFerguson,JonathanOverpeck,GreggGarfin,GigiOwen,ZackGuido
Univ.ofWashington DennisLettenmaier,LaraWhitleyBinder
ColoradoClimateCenter,ColoradoStateUniversity NolanDoesken
ColoradoForestRestorationInstitute,ColoradoStateUniversity TonyCheng,JessicaClement
ColoradoWaterInstitute,ColoradoStateUniversity ReaganWaskom
ColoradoStateUniversity JasonSibold,JessicaClement,DanSmith,JoseSalas,MoniqueRocca
DesertResearchInstitute;WesternRegionalClimateCenter KellyRedmond
KansasStateUniversity MaryKnapp
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NationalCenterforAtmosphericResearch DavidYates,KathyMiller,LindaMearns
SoutheastClimateConsortium;FloridaState DavidZierdan
UniversityofNevada ThomasPiechota
UniversityofNebraska;HighPlainsRegionalClimateCenter KenHubbard,KennethDewey
UniversityofNewMexico AmyEllwein
UniversityofUtah PhilDennison,JohnMatsen
UniversityofWyoming IndyBurke,JaquelineShinker,DianaHulme
UtahStateClimatologist;UtahStateUniversity RobertGillies
WeberStateUniversity DanBedford
WesternStateCollege GeorgeSibley
WyomingStateClimatologist;UniversityofWyoming StephenGray
OTHER/NonProfit
Organization MajorContact
AmericanWaterWorksAssociationResearchFoundation RobRenner
ArapahoeBasinSkiArea TimFinnigan
Bloomberg(media) JohnLippert
CarpeDiem(EXLOCO) KimeryWiltshire
CarverSchwarzMcNab&Bailey,LLC DaveBailey
ClimateScienceForum MichaelFortune
ColoradoFoundationforWaterEducation KristinMaharg
ColoradoWaterCongress DougKemper
ConservationInternational HannahCampbell
EnvironmentalDefense JenniferPitt
ForestHealthTaskForce(SummitCounty,CO) HowardHallman
FoxNews RickReichmuth
GunnisonEnergyCorp. JasonHoeler
HighCountryCitizen’sAlliance SteveGlazer
IndigenousWatersNetwork GaryCollins
LivingRivers/ColoradoRiverKeepers JohnWeisheit
MountainStudiesInstitute KorenNydick
MWHGlobal GeraldGibbens
NationalPublicRadio‐Denver JeffBrady
OmahaWorldHerald NancyGardner
Pacificorp DarceGuyman
ResourceMedia TheoStein
RockyMountainClimateOrganization TomEasley,StephenSaunders
RegionalTransportationDistrict(RTD)‐Denver MichaelCarlson
SierraClub BarbaraWilliams
SustainableTucson MadelineKiser
TetraTech JohnEdrich
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TheNatureConservancy RobertWigington
TroutUnlimited MelindaKassen
VailResorts LukeCartin
WalshEnvironmental MargitHentschel
WaterUtilityClimateAlliance DavidBehar(SanFranciscoPublicUtilitiesCommission),PaulFleming(SeattlePublicUtilities),BrandonGoshen(MetropolitanWaterDistrict),AngelaLicata(NewYorkCityDept.ofEnvironmentalProtection)
WesternGovernors’Association MadelineWest,RichHalvey,TomIseman
WesternResourceAdvocates BartMiller,StacyTellinghausen
WesternStatesWaterCouncil TonyWillardson,CraigBell
AppendixII.Presentations
January11,2009KWolterInternationalWeatherandClimateEventsof2008AmericanMeteorologicalSocietyMeeting,Atlanta,GA
January13,2009KAverytPanelist,WaterintheWestAmericanMeteorologicalSociety,Phoenix,AZ
January14,2009KWolterANewandImprovedMultivariateEnsoIndex(MEI)AmericanMeteorologicalSocietyMeeting,Phoenix,AZ
January15,2009JLukasWhatTreeRingstellusAboutHydrologicVariabilityinColoradoandDenverWater’sWatershedsDenverWaterPlanningForum,Denver,CO
January21,2009KAverytWaterintheWestUniversityofColoradoatBoulder,Boulder,CO
January22,2009KWolterSeasonalOutlookthroughMarch2009ColoradoWaterAvailability&FloodTaskForce,Denver,CO
January27,2009BUdallClimateChangeandWater:AdaptationChallengesNationalResearchCouncilPanel:America’sClimateChoices:AdaptingtotheImpactsofClimateChange,Washington,D.C.
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January28,2009JDeemsDesertDustImpactsonColoradoRiverBasinSnowpackandRunoffEmergingIssuesinClimateChange‐UNEPExpertWorkshop,NewDelhi,India
January28,2009BUdallClimateChangeinColoradoPresentationtoColoradoWaterConservationBoard,Denver,CO
February4,2009JLukasTree‐ringPaleohydrologiesandtheirApplicationtoWaterManagementinColoradoandtheWestHydrologicSciencesandWaterResourcesEngineeringSeminar,UniversityofColorado,Boulder,CO
February9,2009BUdallRiskofColoradoRiverReservoirDryingandImplicationsforRiverManagementinthe21stCentury,Boulder,CO
February11,2009BUdallClimateChangeandthelinkagetoWaterResources:WhatEveryoneShouldKnowEPARegion8Meeting,Denver,CO
February18,2009JBarsugliPanelistCO‐LABSPanelonClimateChangeandWater,Denver,CO
February20,2009KAverytClimateChangeinColoradoAgricultureGroup,Greeley,CO
February24,2009JBarsugliClimateChange101Utah’sWaterSupplyConference,SaltLakeCity,UT
February25,2009KWolterSeasonalOutlookthoughMay2009ColoradoWaterAvailability&FloodTaskForce,Denver,CO
March6,2009KWolterLetitsnow,LetitSnow,LetitSnow!BixbyElementarySchool,Boulder,CO
March10,2009BUdallClimateChangeandWater:AdaptationChallengesWasatchSustainabilitySummit,SaltLakeCity,UT
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March17,2009BUdallClimateChangeandtheRelationshiptoWaterResourcesJohnsonFoundationConferenceonWater,Racine,WI
March20,2009KWolterSeasonalOutlookthroughJune2009ColoradoWaterAvailability&FloodTaskForce,Denver,CO
March23,2009KWolterExperimentalSeasonalClimateForecastsBinationalDroughtScienceConference,SanDiego,CA
March24,2009JBarsugliColoradoRiver:OutofWaterorOutofContextClimatePredictionApplicationsScienceWorkshop,Norman,OK
March25,2009KAverytAnUncertaintyFrameworkforRegionalClimateAssessments?ClimatePredictionApplicationsScienceWorkshop,Norman,OK
March25,2009KNowakNonparametricDailyDisaggregationofAnnualStreamflowValuesColoradoStateUniversityHydrologyDays,FortCollins,CO
March25,2009BUdallClimateChangeinColorado,ASynthesistoSupportWaterResourcesManagementandAdaptationJointAgricultureCommittee,Denver,CO
March25,2009BUdallClimateChangeinColoradoJointAgricultureCommittee,ColoradoLegislature,Denver,CO
March27,2009BUdallResolvingProjectionsfortheColoradoRiverBasinBorderGovernors'BinationalDroughtConference,SanDiego,CA
April3,2009KNowakWaterSupplyRiskontheColoradoRiver:CanManagementMitigate?UniversityofColoradoHydrologicScienceSymposium,Boulder,CO
April3,2009BUdallClimateChange,WaterandTheWestSouthwesternWaterConservationDistrict,Durango,CO
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April3,2009BUdallClimateChange,WaterandTheWestSouthwesternWaterConservationDistrict,Durango,CO
April7,2009BUdallWaterResourcesandDroughtUSClimateChangeScienceProgramWorkshoponEnhancingUSContributionstoWorkingGroup2oftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeAR5,WashingtonD.C
April10,2009JBarsugliClimateChangeandAgricultureSouthwestMarketingNetwork,Durango,CO
April12,2009NDoeskenColoradoClimateTrendsWebsiteArkansasRiverBasinWaterForum,Longmont,CO
April14,2009JBarsugliClimateModels:InterpretationandUseNationalWeatherServiceClimateChangeTraining,Boulder,CO
April14,2009KWolterThoughtsAbouttheNextThreetoFiveMonthsinNorthAmerica,withSpecialFocuson(South‐)EasternU.S.VideoconferenceEasternSeasonalAssessmentWorkshop,NationalInteragencyFireCenter(NIFC),Shepherdstown,WV
April15,2009KWolterThoughtsAbouttheUpcomingSpring&SummerinNorthAmerica,withSpecialFocuson(South‐)WesternU.S.NationalInteragencyFireCenterWorkshop,Boulder,CO
April15,2009KWolter"Natural"ClimateVariabilityWesternRegionClimateChangeWorkshop,Boulder,CO
April15,2009BUdallTheWesternWaterAssessment:ConnectingClimateSciencewithDecisionMakingintheRockyMountainWestNationalWeatherServiceWesternRegionClimateChangeWorkshop,Boulder,CO
April15,2009BUdallTheWesternWaterAssessment:ConnectingClimateSciencewithDecisionMakingintheRockyMountainWestNationalWeatherServiceWesternRegionClimateChangeWorkshop,Boulder,CO
April21,2009BUdallResolvingProjectionsfortheColoradoRiverBasinProjectUpdateMeeting,Boulder,CO
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April22,2009KWolterSeasonalOutlookthroughSeptember2009ColoradoWaterAvailability&FloodTaskForce,Denver,CO
April28,2009KNowakWaterSupplyRiskontheColoradoRiver:CanManagementMitigate?SouthernNevadaWaterAuthority‐LasVegasWashCoordinationCommitteeMeeting,LasVegas,NV
May2,2009TPainterWhereDesertsandMountainsCollide:theImplicationsofAcceleratedSnowmeltbyDesertDustGuyF.AtkinsonDistinguishedLectureSeries,DepartmentofGeologyandGeophysics,UniversityofUtah,SaltLakeCity,UT
May5,2009BUdallClimateChangeAdaptationandWaterResourcesUniersityCorporationforAtmosphericResearchOfficeofGovernmentAffairsHouseBriefing,Washington,D.C.
May14,2009JBarsugliClimateChangeattheRegionalLevelUSGeologicalSurveyScienceCenter,FortCollins,CO.
May27,2009KWolterSeasonalOutlookthroughSeptember2009ColoradoWaterAvailability&FloodTaskForce,Denver,CO
June2,2009KNowakUsingWaveletsforSpectralAnalysisofStreamflowDataintheColoradoRiverBasinColoradoRiverHydrologyWorkingGroup,Boulder,CO
June15,2009TPainterWhereMountainsandDesertsCollide:ImplicationsofAcceleratedSnowmeltbyDisturbedDesertDustNASAEarthSystemScienceat20yearsSymposium,Washington,D.C.
June18,2009KWolterSeasonalOutlookthroughOctober2009ColoradoWaterAvailability&FloodTaskForce,Denver,CO
July14,2009BUdallTheRegionalIntegratedSciencesAssessmentPerspectiveonClimateServicesClimateWorkingGroupMeeting,Broomfield,CO
July16,2009KWolterLongTermWeatherOutlookColoradoWaterAvailability&FloodTaskForce,Denver,CO
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July27,2009JBarsugliBringingClimateChangeHome:WhatProjectionsSayforColorado’sWaterResourcesTrainingforHighSchoolScienceTeachers,Boulder,CO
July29,2009BUdallAProposedFrameworkforCollaborativeColoradoRiverDecisionMakingSupportedbySocialandPhysicalSciencePresentationtoMikeConnor,CommissionerBureauofUSBureauofReclamation,AssistantDepartmentofInteriorSecretaryAnneCastle,Washington,D.C.
August10,2009JBarsugliSummaryofRecentPapersontheColoradoRiverTeleconference,FrontRangeWaterProviders,Teleconference
August14,2009TPainterWhenDesertsandMountainsCollide:TheImpactofDesertDustonSnowmeltHydrologyintheColoradoRiverBasinJetPropulsionLaboratoryScienceVisitorandColloquiumProgram,Pasadena,CA
August19,2009DKenneyTheLastDrop:ColoradoRiverDroughtandClimateChangeTheNationalCenterforAtmosphericReserachJournalismFellows,Boulder,CO
August20,2009JBarsugliTheCertainUncertainFutureoftheColoradoRiver,Panelistfor“IntegratingClimateChangeandWaterPlanning"ColoradoWaterCongressSummerConference,SteamboatSprings,CO
August25,2009JBarsugliClimateChangeattheRegionalLevelUSFishandWildlifeServiceMountainPrairieRegionEcologicalServices2009ProjectLeadersMeeting,Denver,CO
August26,2009KWolterLongTermWeatherOutlookColoradoWaterAvailability&FloodTaskForce,Denver,CO
September9,2009BUdallResolvingProjectionsfortheColoradoRiverBasinColoradoRiverBoardofCalifornia,Ontario,CA
September15,2009JBarsugliWhitepaperonImprovementstoClimateModelstoProvideUsefulInformationtoWaterManagersFrontRangeWaterProviders,Boulder,CO
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September16,2009KAverytInvitedPanelist&PresenterClimateServicesforWaterManagers,Webinar
September18,2009TPainterWhat’stheDirtySecretofDirtySnowColoradoRiverWaterConservancyDistrictAnnualMeeting,GrandJunction,CO
September21,2009JBarsugliWhitepaperonImprovementstoClimateModelstoProvideUsefulInformationtoWaterManagersAspenGlobalChangeInstitute,Aspen,CO
September22,2009KWolterClimateChangeinColorado:Present,Past,andFutureBoulderAudubonSociety,Boulder,CO
September29,2009BUdallGlobalClimateChangeImpactsintheU.S.:WaterResourcesFindingsGlobalChangeImpactsintheUnitedStatesWebinar,Webinar
October2,2009BUdallGlobalBiogeochemicalCycles:Humanity’s21stCenturyIQTestUniversityofColoradoCenterfortheAmericanWestBoardRetreat,EstesPark,CO
October5,2009GGuentchevStatisticalSignificanceoftheModel‐ObservedDifferencesinPrecipitationVariabilityfortheHistorical1951‐1999PeriodColoradoRiverHydrologyGroupmeeting,Boulder,CO
October7,2009KWolterWhatDoesElNiñoMeanforDroughtinTexas?NationalDroughtForum,Austin,TX
October8,2009JBarsugliClimateinColoradoAmericanPlanningAssociation,EstesPark,CO
October8,2009KWolterElNiñoasa'Drought‐Buster'inTexas:HowReliableisit,orWhatCanweExpectthisWinter?AretheSeptemberRainsaSignofThingstoCome?DroughtMonitorForum,Austin,TX
October14,2009BUdallClimateChangeAdaptation:WaterSectorWishes,Wants,ConstraintsandCravingsUniversityCorporationofAtmosphericResearchForum,Boulder,CO
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October15,2009KWolterPanelist,SeasonalWeatherIndicesMDAEarthSatWeatherMeeting,LasVegas,NV
October20,2009BUdallWaterSectorNeedsandWantsfromClimateModelsAspenGlobalChangeInstitute,Aspen,CO
October22,2009KAverytSolarThermal&Coal‐FiredPowerPlants:ConsequencesfortheWesternUSandColoradoRiverBasinRenewableEnergyintheSouthwest:ConcentratedSolarandBeyond,Tucson,AZ
October22,2009TPainterDirtyLittleSecretsoftheGreatestSnowonEarthGreenMonthSustainabilityLectureSeriesatParkCity,sponsoredbySwanerandtheUniversityofUtahOfficeofSustainability,(withPeterMetcalfandJimSteenburgh),SaltLakeCity,UT
October27,2009DKenneyInterstateWaterAllocationintheUnitedStates:Part2‐‐TheColoradoRiverPresentationtotheGeneralInstituteforWaterPlanning(GIWP),People’sRepublicofChina,Beijing,China
November2,2009BUdallBoardofDirectors'RetreatMetropolitanWaterDistrictofSouthernCalifornia2060,LosAngeles,CA
November3,2009KWolterWhatcanCaliforniaExpectThisWinter?Winter2010OutlookWorkshop,SanDiego,CA
November10,2009KWolterWhatcantheUpperColoradoBasinExpectthisWinter?NOAANationalIntegratedDroughtInformationSystemWeeklyDroughtWebinars,Boulder,CO
November17,2009JBarsugliClimateModelsandScenariosofClimateChangeintheWesternUnitedStatesUSForestServiceWesternWatershedsandClimateChangeWorkingGroup,Boulder,CO.
November18,2009JLukasTreeFlow:UsingTree‐ringPaleohydrologyasaPlanningToolWesternWatershedsandClimateChange‐WaterandAquaticSystemToolsWorkshop(USDAForestService),Boulder,CO,
November30,2009KWolterReliabilityofENSOsignalinWesternU.S.inlastdecadeCaliforniaWaterResourcesWorkshop,SanDiego,CA
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December8,2009JBarsugliGunnisonRiverClimateHistoryandChangeTheNatureConservancyGunnisonClimateAdaptationWorkshop,,Gunnison,CO
December8,2009KWolterUpperColorado2009‐10:QuoVadis?SevenStatesMeeting,LasVegas,NV
December8,2009BUdallWesternWaterChallengesinthe21stCenturyUrbanLandInstituteAnnualMeeting,LasVegas,NV
December14,2009KAverytDevelopingandEvaluatingWorkshopFrameworkstoImproveClimateLiteracyAmericanGeophysicalUnionFallMeeting,SanFrancisco,CA
December15,2009TPainterAFive‐yearRecordofRadiativeandHydrologicForcingbyDesertDustintheColoradoRiverBasinAmericanGeophysicalUnionFallMeeting,SanFrancisco,CA
December15,2009BUdallWaterResourceFindingsfromGlobalChangeImpactsintheUnitedStatesAmericanGeophysicalUnionFallMeeting,SanFrancisco,CA
December15,2009TPainterWaterYieldLossintheUpperColoradoRiverBasinDrivenbyDustRadiativeForcinginSnowAmericanGeophysicalUnionFallMeeting,SanFrancisco,CA
December16,2009JBarsugliWhat’sNeededfromClimateModelingtoAdvanceActionableScienceforWaterUtilities?AmericanGeophysicalUnionFallMeeting,SanFrancisco,CA
December16,2009TPainterRadiativeForcingbyDesertDustintheColoradoRiverBasinfrom2000to2009UsingCoupledSatelliteandinsituMeasurementsAmericanGeophysicalUnionFallMeeting,SanFrancisco,CA
December17,2009EGordonIdentifyingDecision‐Makers'ScienceNeedsforAdaptationforClimate‐RelatedImpactsonForestEcosystemServicesAmericanGeophysicalUnionFallMeeting,SanFrancisco,CA
December17,2009BUdallTheNeedforBetterScienceintheColoradoRiverBasintoSupportDecisionMakingPresentationtoDepartmentofInteriorSecretarySalazar,AssistantSecretaryAnneCastleandChairmanRaulGrijalva,Washington,D.C.
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October,2009NDoeskenColoradoClimateTrendsWebsiteSouthPlatteRiverForum,Longmont,CO
October,2009KWolterSnowStormsScienceDayLecture,Boulder,CO
October,2009TPainterImpactofDesertDustonSnowmeltResourcesintheColoradoRiverBasinBriefingtoDepartmentofInteriorAssistantSecretaryAnneCastle,Washington,D.C.
October,2009TPainterImpactofDesertDustonSnowmeltResourcesintheColoradoRiverBasinBriefingsofCongressionalStaffers,USHouseSubcommitteeonWaterandPower,USSenateSubcommitteeEnergyandWaterResources,ColoradoSenatorMarkUdall,Washington,D.C.
September290,2009BUdallWater,ClimateChangeandSustainabilityAssociationofStateDrinkingWaterAdministrators,Denver,CO
AppendixIII.MajorAwards
2009DepartmentofInteriorPartnersinConservationAward,AppendixU
2009Governor’sAwardforScience,Finalist,ClimateChangeinColoradoReport
AppendixIV.Publications
Alvord,C.(2009).TheWaterYear2009inReview.IntermountainWestClimateSummary5(6).
Averyt,K.(2009).ContinuingPathsandNewDirectionsfortheWesternWaterAssessment.IntermountainWestClimateSummary5(5).
Averyt,K.,Lukas,J.,Alvord,C.,Barsugli,J.,andDoesken,N.(2009).The“DealingwithDrought:AdaptingtoaChangingClimate”Workshops.ReporttotheColoradoWaterConservationBoard.
Averyt,K.,McNutt,C.,andPulwarty,R.(2009).ResearchDirectionsinSupportoftheFifthIPCCReport:AReporttotheUSGCRP.ReporttotheU.S.GlobalChangeResearchProgram.
Averyt,K.,Alvord,C.,Joyce,L.,Lukas,J.,Barsugli,J.,Owen,G.,andUdall,B.(2009).DevelopingandEvaluatingWorkshopFrameworkstoImproveClimateLiteracyAmericanGeophysicalUnionFallMeetingAbstract,U13D‐07.
Barsugli,J.,Anderson,C.,Smith,J.,andVogel,J.(2009).What'sNeededfromClimateModelingtoAdvanceActionableScienceforWaterUtilities?AmericanGeophysicalUnionFallMeetingAbstract,H331‐08.
Barsugli,J.Nowak,K.,Rajagopalan,B.,Prairie,J.,andHarding,B.(2009).Commenton“WhenWillLakeMeadgoDry?”byT.P.BarnettandD.W.Pierce.WaterResourcesResearch.,45,W09601,doi:10.1029/2008WR007627.
Barsugli,J.,AndersonC.,Smith,J.,andVogel,J.(2009).OptionsforImprovingClimateModelingtoAssistWaterUtilityPlanningforClimateChange.WhitePaperpreparedfortheWaterUtilityClimateAlliance.
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Deems,J.,Lundquist,J.,andLoheide,S.(2009).ClimateChangeImpactsonSnowmeltHydrologyinSmallSierraNevadaBasinsforEcologicalApplications.AmericanGeophysicalUnionFallMeetingAbstract,H33E‐0935.
Flanner,M.,Zender,C.,Hess,P.,Mahowald,N.,Painter,T.,Ramanathan,V.,andRasch,P.(2009).SpringtimeWarmingandReducedSnowCoverfromCarbonaceousParticles.AtmosphericChemistryandPhysics9:2481‐2497.
Gangopadhyay,S.,Harding,B.,Rajagopalan,B.,Lukas,J.,andFulp,T.(2009).ANon‐ParametricApproachforPaleohydrologicReconstructionofAnnualStreamflowEnsembles.WaterResourcesResearch45,W06417.
Gordon,E.,andLukas,J.(2009).IdentifyingDecision‐Makers'ScienceNeedsforAdaptationforClimate‐RelatedImpactsonForestEcosystemServices.AmericanGeophysicalUnionFallMeetingAbstract,NH41A‐1233.
Guentchev,G.,Barsugli,J.,Eischeid,J.,Raff,D.,andBrekke,L.(2009).HowWelldotheGCMsReplicatetheHistoricalPrecipitationVariabilityintheColoradoRiverBasin?AmericanGeophysicalUnionFallMeetingAbstract,U13B‐0558.
Hoerling,M.,Lettenmaier,D.,Cayan,D.,andUdall,B.(2009).ReconcilingFutureColoradoRiverFlows.SouthwestHydrology8(3).
Jerla,C.,andPrairie,J.(2009).ColoradoRiverInterimGuidelinesforLowerBasinShortagesandtheCoordinatedOperationsforLakePowellandLakeMead&EffortsAddressingClimateChangeandVariability.IntermountainWestClimateSummary5(1).
Kenney,D.,Klein,R.,andGoemans,C.(2009).PreliminaryFindingsfromWesternWaterAssessment’s“WaterRightsandClimateChange”Project.IntermountainWestClimateSummary5(2).
Kenney,D.(2009).TheColoradoRiver:WhatProspectfor‘ARiverNoMore’.InF.MolleandP.Wester,eds.,RiverBasins:Trajectories,Societies,Environments:ComprehensiveAssessmentofWaterManagementinAgriculture.,CABInternational:WallingfordEngland:123‐146.
Leary,N.,Averyt,K.,Hewitson,B.,andMarengo,J.(2009).CrossingThresholdsinRegionalClimateResearch:SynthesisoftheIPCCExpertMeetingonRegionalImpacts,Adaptation,Vulnerability,andMitigation.ClimateResearch40:121‐131,doi:10.3354/cr00832.
Lowrey,J.Ray,A.,andWebb,R.(2009).FactorsInfluencingtheUseofClimateInformationbyColoradoMunicipalWaterManagers.ClimateResearch40:103‐119.
Lowrey,J.andM.L'Heureux(2009).NewENSOAlertSystemfromNOAAClimatePredictionCenter.IntermountainWestClimateSummary5(5).
Lukas,J.(2009).TreeFlow:AComprehensiveWebResourceforTree‐ringReconstructionsofStreamflow.IntermountainWestClimateSummary5(5).
Malmberg,J.(2009).TheNationalCenterforAtmosphericResearch’sMarshallField:WinterWeatherPrecipitationResearch.IntermountainWestClimateSummary5(1).
Malmberg,J.(2009).TheClimatePredictionCenter’sU.S.TemperatureandPrecipitationTrendMaps.IntermountainWestClimateSummary5(2).
Malmberg,J.(2009).TheColoradoAvalancheInformationCenter.IntermountainWestClimateSummary5(3).
McAfee,S.andJ.Russell(2009).SimulatedTopographyinWesternNorthAmericaImpactsHemisphericCirculationPatternsandRegionalPrecipitationinIPCCAR4CoupledModels.AmericanGeophysicalUnionFallMeetingAbstract,GC233A‐0712.
Miller,J.,Rangwala,I.,Chen,Y.,andRussell,G.(2009).ClimateChangeandtheWaterVaporFeedbackatHighAltitudesandLatitudes.AmericanGeophysicalUnionFallMeetingAbstract,B33A‐0364.
Nowak,K.,Rajagopalan,B.,andPrairie,J.,(InPress).ANon‐parametricStochasticApproachforMultisiteDisaggregationofAnnualtoDailyStreamflow:WaterResourcesResearch.
Overpeck,J.,Anderson,C.,Cayan,D.,Dettinger,M.,Dow,K.,Hartmann,H.,Jones,J.,Miles,E.,Mote,P.,Shafer,M.,Udall,B.,andWhite,D.(2009).ClimateServices:theRISAExperience.
Painter,T.,Deems,J.,Belnap,J.,Hamlet,A.,Landry,C.,andUdall,B.(Inreview).ResponseofColoradoRiverRunofftoDustRadiativeForcingandSnow.ProceedingsoftheNationalAcademyofSciences.
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Painter,T.,Deems,J.,Belnap,J.,Hamlet,A.,Landry,C.,andUdall,B.(2009).WaterYieldLossintheUpperColoradoRiverBasinDrivenbyDustRadiativeForcinginSnow.AmericanGeophysicalUnionFallMeetingAbstract,H11E‐0881.
Rajagopalan,B.,Nowak,K.,Prairie,J.,Hoerling,M.,Harding,B.,Barsugli,J.,Ray,A.,andUdall,B.(2009).WaterSupplyRiskontheColoradoRiver:CanManagementMitigate?WaterResourcesResearch45,W08201,doi:10.1029/2008WR00765.
Rangwala,I.andJ.Miller(2009).20thCenturyTrendsintheMaximumandMinimumTemperaturesinColorado'sSanJuanMountains.AmericanGeophysicalUnionFallMeetingAbstract,B33A‐0363.
Ray,A.(2009).WaterResourcesDecision‐MakersandtheirneedsforDecadalClimatePrediction.IntermountainWestClimateSummary5(3).
Rice,J.,Woodhouse,C.,andLukas,J.(2009).Scienceanddecision‐making:Watermanagementandtree‐ringdatainthewesternUnitedStates.JournaloftheAmericanWaterResourcesAssociation45(5):1248‐1259.
Schaepman,M.,Ustin,S.,Plaza,A.,Painter,T.,Verrelest,J.andLiang,S.(Inpress).EarthSystemScienceRelatedImagingSpectroscopy–Anassessment.RemoteSensingofEnvironment.
Shreve,C.,Okin,G.,andPainter,T.(Inpress).IndicesforEstimatingFractionalSnowCoverintheWesternTibetanPlateau.JournalofGlaciology,55(192):737‐745.
Udall,B.andAveryt,K.(2009).ACriticalNeed:ANationalInteragencyWaterPlan.SouthwestHydrology8(1):18‐19.
Udall,B.(2009).WaterintheRockies:ATwenty‐FirstCenturyZero‐sumGame.InB.Conover,ed.,HowtheWestwasWarmed,FulcrumPublishing.
Udall,B.andR.Pulwarty(2009).USGlobalClimateChangeImpactsReport,WaterSector.AmericanGeophysicalUnionFallMeeting,AbstractGC23B‐05.
UnifiedSynthesisProductTeam,(2009).GlobalClimateChangeImpactsintheUnitedStates.U.SClimateChangeScienceProgram,[B.Udall:LeadAuthor,WaterSectorChapter].
Wang,S.,Gillies,R.,Jin,J.,andHipps,L.(2009).RecentRainfallCycleintheIntermountainRegionasaQuadratureAmplitudeModulationfromthePacificDecadalOscillation.GeophysicalResearchLetters.36:L02705,doi:10.1029/2008GL036329.
Wang,S.,Gillies,R.,Takle,E.,andGutowskiJr.,W.(2009).EvaluationofPrecipitationintheIntermountainRegionasSimulatedbytheNARCCAPRegionalClimateModels.GeophysicalResearchLetters.36:L11704,doi:10.1029/2009GL037930.
Webb,R.,Pulwarty,R.,Davidson,M.,Shea,E.,Nierenberg,C.,andDole,R.(2009).ExperimentalClimateInformationServicesinSupportofRiskManagement.AmericanGeophysicalUnionFallMeetingAbstract,U13D‐05.
AppendixV.MediaCoverage
February24,2009ClimatechangecouldcreateUtahwaterchallenges,DailyHeraldhttp://heraldextra.com/news/state‐and‐regional/article_ccc70c71‐15c4‐519b‐8f33‐1fa2fc0dc4bd.htmlJoeBarsugli
February26,2009LasVegasRunningoutofWaterMeansDimmingLosAngelesLights,Bloomberg.comhttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a_b86mnWn9.w&refer=homeBradUdall
April20,2009Study:ShortageslikelyonColoradoRiverby2050,SanFranciscoChronicle
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http://www.sfgate.com/cgi‐bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2009/04/20/state/n145427D24.DTLBradUdall,JoeBarsugli
April21,2009Study:ShortagelikelyonColoradoRiverby2050,USATodayhttp://www.usatoday.com/weather/drought/2009‐04‐21‐colorado‐river‐shortages_N.htmBradUdall
April23,2009DustStormsEscalate,PromptingEnvironmentalFears:IncreaseinDirtAffectsEcosystemsinWesternStates,WashingtonPosthttp://www.washingtonpost.com/wp‐dyn/content/article/2009/04/22/AR2009042203685.htmlTomPainter,JeffDeems
May1,2009ColoradoWaterCongress2009SummerConference,http://www.cowatercongress.org/SummerConference/speakersbios.aspxJoeBarsugli
May1,2009PeakOilPioneers,ASPO‐USAhttp://www.aspo‐usa.com/peak_oil_pioneers.cfmBradUdall
May7,2009FourCornersSummitonSustainableCities,ArizonaTechnologyCouncilhttp://www.aztechcouncil.org/cwt/External/WCPages/WCEvents/EventDetail.aspx?EventID=510BradUdall
May14,2009ClimateChange,WaterShortagesConspiretoCreate21stCenturyDustBowl,NewYorkTimeshttp://www.nytimes.com/gwire/2009/05/14/14greenwire‐climate‐change‐water‐shortages‐conspire‐to‐cre‐12208.html?pagewanted=allTomPainter,JeffDeems
May24,2009ColoradoDustStormsSpeedSnowmelt,LosAngelesTimeshttp://articles.latimes.com/2009/may/24/nation/na‐pink‐snow24TomPainter,JeffDeems
Spring2009WesternWaterPolicyProgram,Baselines:NewsletteroftheNaturalResourceLawCenter,UniversityofColoardohttp://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&ct=res&cd=2&ved=0CBAQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.colorado.edu%2Flaw%2Fcenters%2Fnrlc%2Flibrary%2FPublications%2FBaselineNewsletters%2F2009_Spring_NRLC_newsletter.pdf&ei=ALbhS8XkJpL‐MXl_a4D&usg=AFQjCNFWkwKWRYhJYVarBICnxBqD31afNQ&sig2=9pQpV‐D5tdvxbE8GrqqvhgDougKenney
May26,2009CIRESResearchersRecognizedforRoleinHistoricColoradoRiverShortageAgreement,CIRES,UniversityofColoradoNewsRoomhttp://cires.colorado.edu/news/press/2009/riverAgreement.htmlEdieZagona,BalajiRajagopalan,BradUdall
May30,2009HeatingupintheWest,AnchorageDailyNewshttp://www.adn.com/2008/04/01/361185/march‐31‐alaska‐ranger‐hearing.htmlBradUdall
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June1,2009PressReleaseNo.820,WorldMeteorologicalOrganizationhttp://www.wmo.ch/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/pr_820_en.htmlBalajiRajagopalan
June1,2009TheNorbertGerbier‐MIMMInternationalAwardCeremony,IndianInstituteofTropicalMeteorologyhttp://www.tropmet.res.in/static_page.php?page_id=107BalajiRajagopalan
June1,2009WaterBlitz,RockyMountainNationalParkContinentalDivideResearchLearningCenterhttp://www.nps.gov/romo/parkmgmt/upload/water‐blitz.pdfJamesMcCutchan,SuzanneVanDrunnick
June23,2009GlobalNewsDigest,Water21http://www.iwapublishing.com/template.cfm?name=gndjun2309BradUdall
July1,2009ManagementandwatersupplyontheColoradoRiver,UCARMagazinehttp://www2.ucar.edu/magazine/findings/management‐and‐water‐supply‐colorado‐riverBalaji,Rajagopalan,KenNowak,JoeBarsugli,BradUdall
July1,2009WesternWaterSuppliesThretentedbyClimateChange,Geology.comhttp://geology.com/press‐release/colorado‐river‐water‐supply/EdieZagona,BalajiRajagopalan,BradUdall
Summer2009MySphere:Howpeoplework,research,andrelaxatCIRES,CIRES,UniversityofColoradoNewsRoomhttp://cires.colorado.edu/science/spheres/water09/mySphere.htmlBradUdall
July20,2009FutureofWesternWaterSupplyThreatenedbyClimateChange,NASAEarthObservatoryhttp://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/view.php?id=39567Balaji,Rajagopalan,KenNowak,JoeBarsugli,BradUdall
July20,2009FutureofWesternWaterSupplyThreatenedbyClimateChange,SaysNewCU‐BoulderStudy,UniversityofColoradoOfficeofNewsServiceshttp://www.colorado.edu/news/r/f0f273435508fe6525e5e4903baa539b.htmlBalaji,Rajagopalan,KenNowak,JoeBarsugli,BradUdall
July21,2009ColoradoRiverReservoirsCouldBottomOut,TerraDailyhttp://www.terradaily.com/reports/Colorado_River_Reservoirs_Could_Bottom_Out_999.htmlEdieZagona,BalajiRajagopalan,BradUdall
July21,2009WaterSupplyRiskontheColoradoRiver:CanManagementMitigate?,ScienceDailyhttp://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/07/090720163555.htmBalaji,Rajagopalan,KenNowak,JoeBarsugli,BradUdall
July22,2009CUStudywarnsofScarceWater,DenverPost
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http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_12887585Balaji,Rajagopalan,KenNowak,JoeBarsugli,BradUdall
Fall2009WaterSupplyRiskontheColoradoRiver:CanManagementMitigate?,PublicRadioStationsinCO(KGNU,KCFRandKUNC)andNevada(KNPR)BalajiRajagopalan,KenNowak,JoeBarsugli,BradUdall
July22,2009EnergyandGlobalWarmingNewsforJuly22:WarmingColoradoRiverSystemFacesupto50%ChangeofFullyDepletingallReservoirStorageby2050,ClimateProgresshttp://climateprogress.org/2009/07/22/energy‐and‐global‐warming‐news‐colorado‐river‐reservoirs‐nissan‐investing‐billions‐retool‐tennessee‐factory‐electric‐hybrid‐cars/Balaji,Rajagopalan,KenNowak,JoeBarsugli,BradUdall
July22,2009StudyConcludesColoradoRiverReservoirsCouldBottomOutfromWarming,WaterManagementBusiness‐as‐Usual,GreenCarCongresshttp://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/07/study‐concludes‐colorado‐river‐reservoirs‐could‐bottom‐out‐from‐warming‐water‐management‐businessasu.htmlBalajiRajagopalan,KenNowak
July22,2009Study:ColoradoRiverWaterSuuplySafeThrough2026,LasVegasSunhttp://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2009/jul/22/study‐colorado‐river‐water‐supply‐safe‐through‐202/BalajiRajagopalan,KenNowak
July23,2009ColoradoRiverReservoirsRunningDry,TheDailyGreenhttp://www.thedailygreen.com/environmental‐news/latest/colorado‐river‐47021303Balaji,Rajagopalan,KenNowak,JoeBarsugli,BradUdall
July24,2009ThreatstoColoradoRiverWaterSupply,ClimateWatchhttp://blogs.kqed.org/climatewatch/2009/07/24/colorado‐river‐water‐supply‐threatened‐after‐2026‐study‐says/Balaji,Rajagopalan,KenNowak,JoeBarsugli,BradUdall
July28,2009ColoradoRiverRunningonEmptyby2050,GuardianEnvironmentNetworkhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jul/28/network‐usaBalajiRajagopalan,KenNowak
August11,2009Blitz'totestwaterathundredsoflocationsinRockyMountainNationalPark,RockyMountainNewshttp://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/aug/11/blitz‐test‐water‐hundreds‐locations‐rocky‐mountain/JamesMcCutchan,SuzanneVanDrunnick
August19,2009WaterBlitzTestingatRockyMountainNationalPark,YouTubehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sMOJlaPcDgJamesMcCutchan,SuzanneVanDrunnick
August20,2009Hundreds'blitz'RockyMountainNationalParktocollectwater,ColoradoDailyhttp://www.coloradodaily.com/cu‐boulder/ci_13165255#axzz0myc7Go00JamesMcCutchan,SuzanneVanDrunnick
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August26,2009Water‐useSaga:TheReturnofGlenCanyon,ChristianScienceMonitorhttp://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&ct=res&cd=29&ved=0CCoQFjAIOBQ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.glencanyon.org%2Fpress%2FPDF%2F20090826‐CSM.pdf&ei=r7HhS6eMIYraNoO_uKMD&usg=AFQjCNFSO66Ean‐OnWKDdQ2jrtRhJ_hwpg&sig2=vMggMV11Y0bWTBMnKpjoZgBalajiRajagopalan
September21,2009FirstsnowatCopper‐whatwillthewinterbring?,CopperSummitCountyCitizensVoicehttp://coppercoloradocondos.com/2009/09/21/first‐snow‐at‐copper‐what‐will‐the‐winter‐bring/KlausWolter
September22,2009SnowblanketsSummitCountyPeaks,SummitDailyNewsKlausWolter
Fall2009WesternWaterOutlook:Grim,ESRLQuarterlyhttp://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&ct=res&cd=1&ved=0CBQQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.esrl.noaa.gov%2Fnews%2Fquarterly%2Ffall2009%2F&ei=Cw7jS83iLY_WNurJ‐a8D&usg=AFQjCNGvFjLTSy042aYQAdj_e5apDUwTSg&sig2=lWIaBFywxdzHNfD9LwVskgBalaji,Rajagopalan,KenNowak,JoeBarsugli,BradUdall
September23,2009Forecasters:EarlyColo.Snownopredictor,UPI.comhttp://www.upi.com/Top_News/2009/09/23/Forecasters‐Early‐Colo‐snow‐no‐predictor/UPI‐30101253727347/KlausWolter
October5,2009ElNinoCouldAffectColorado'sWeatherThisWinter,UniversityofColoradoNewsCenterhttp://www.colorado.edu/news/broadcast/KlausWolter
October6,2009informingWaterResourceDecisionMakersforClimateChangeAdaptationPolicy,NOAAHydrometeorologyTestbedhttp://hmt.noaa.gov/news/2008/BradUdall
October15,2009Winterforecast:WarmerWest,North'coolerSouth,AssoicatedPresshttp://www.physorg.com/news174838595.htmlKlausWolter
October28,2009StormPredictions‐shortadlong,ColoradoSpringsGazettehttp://outthere.freedomblogging.com/category/snow/KlausWolter
November1,2009SnowBusiness,5280http://www.5280.com/issues/2009/0911/feature.php?pageID=1970KlausWolter
November4,2009StrengtheningElNinoTriggersCautiousOptimistforaWetterWinter,ThePress‐Enterprisehttp://www.pe.com/localnews/environment/stories/PE_News_Local_S_wateryear04.4bcfa45.htmlKlausWolter
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November5,2009WhenWillLakeMeadGoDry?,ClimateWatchhttp://blogs.kqed.org/climatewatch/tag/lake‐mead/Balaji,Rajagopalan,KenNowak,JoeBarsugli,BradUdall
December1,2009CUPeople‐December2009,Coloradanhttp://www.coloradanmagazine.org/2009/12/01/cu‐people‐december‐2009/BradUdall
December10,2009SurveyrevealsdetailsofclimateactionintheWest,LincolnInstituteofLandPolicyPressReleasehttp://atlincolnhouse.typepad.com/pressroom/2009/12/index.htmlBradUdall
December27,2009Tighter,CostlierWaterShiftingFocustoCurbingDemand,ArizonaRepublicBradUdall