188437221 case 22 victoria chemicals plc a
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Exhibit 2
VICTORIA CHEMICALS (A)
Frank Greystock's DCF Analysis of Merseyside Project
(financial values in millions of British pounds)
Assumptions
Old Annual Output in tons 250000 Discount Rate 10.00%
Out Gain/Original Output 7.00% Tax Rate 30.00%
New Annual Output in tons 267500 Investment 12000000 2000000
Price Per ton 675 Depreciable Life 15 10
Inflation Rate 0 Salvage Value 0 0
Gross Margin 12.50% WIP Inventory/Cost of goods 3.00%
Old Gross Margin 11.50% Months down 1.5
Earning Savings Prelim. Engineering cost
1-5years 1.25% Overhead/Investments
6-10years 0.75%
11-15years 0.00%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Year Now 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
1. Estimate of Incremental Gross Profit
New Output (tons) 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500
Lost Output--Construction (33,438)
New Sales (Millions) 157.99 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56
New Gross Margin 13.8% 13.8% 13.8% 13.8% 13.8% 13.3% 13.3% 13.3% 13.3% 13.3% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5%
New Gross Profit 21.72 24.83 24.83 24.83 24.83 23.92 23.92 23.92 23.92 23.92 22.57 22.57 22.57 22.57 22.57
Old Output 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000
Old Sales (Millions) 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75
Old Gross Profit 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41
Incremental Gross Profit 2.32 5.42 5.42 5.42 5.42 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52 3.16 3.16 3.16 3.16 3.16
2. Estimate of Incremental WIP inventory
New WIP inventory 4.67 4.67 4.67 4.67 4.67 4.70 4.70 4.70 4.70 4.70 4.74 4.74 4.74 4.74 4.74
Old WIP inventory 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48
Incremental WIP inventory 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26
3. Estimate of Incremental Depreciation
New Depreciation 1.60 1.39 1.20 1.04 0.90 0.78 0.68 0.59 0.51 0.44 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.57
More Depreciation 0.400 0.320 0.256 0.205 0.164 0.131 0.105 0.084 0.17 0.17
4. Overhead 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
5. Prelim. Engineering Costs (Sunk Cost) 0.00
Pretax Incremental Profit 0.72 4.03 4.22 3.98 4.20 3.48 3.64 3.77 3.88 3.97 2.51 2.42 2.42 2.59 2.59
6. Cash Flow Adjustments
Less Capital Expenditures 12.00 2.00
Add back Depreciation 1.60 1.39 1.20 1.44 1.22 1.04 0.88 0.75 0.64 0.55 0.66 0.74 0.74 0.57 0.57
Less Added WIP inventory -0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
7. Free Cash Flow -12.00 1.91 4.21 4.16 2.23 4.16 3.50 3.43 3.39 3.35 3.33 2.45 2.44 2.44 2.39 2.39
NPV = 12.01
IRR = 25.79% Two way data table
Price
12.01 500$ 525$ 550$ 575$ 600$ 625$ 650$ 675$
IRR 25000 (9.35) (9.27) (9.19) (9.11) (9.03) (8.95) (8.87) (8.79)
25.79% 50000 (7.76) (7.60) (7.44) (7.29) (7.13) (6.97) (6.81) (6.65)
25000 -7.20% 75000 (6.17) (5.94) (5.70) (5.46) (5.22) (4.98) (4.74) (4.51)
50000 -1.85% 100000 (4.58) (4.27) (3.95) (3.63) (3.31) (3.00) (2.68) (2.36)
75000 2.48% Units 125000 (3.00) (2.60) (2.20) (1.80) (1.41) (1.01) (0.61) (0.22)
100000 6.26% 150000 (1.41) (0.93) (0.45) 0.02 0.50 0.98 1.45 1.93
125000 9.67% 175000 0.18 0.74 1.29 1.85 2.40 2.96 3.52 4.07
150000 12.83% 200000 1.77 2.40 3.04 3.68 4.31 4.95 5.58 6.22
175000 15.81% 225000 3.36 4.07 4.79 5.50 6.22 6.93 7.65 8.36
200000 18.65% 250000 4.95 5.74 6.54 7.33 8.12 8.92 9.71 10.51
225000 21.37% 275000 6.54 7.41 8.28 9.16 10.03 10.90 11.78 12.65
250000 24.00%
275000 26.55%
Exhibit 2
VICTORIA CHEMICALS (A)
Frank Greystock's DCF Analysis of Merseyside Project
(financial values in millions of British pounds)
Assumptions
New Annual Output
Annual Output (metric tons) 250,000 Discount rate 10.0%
Output Gain/Original Output 7.0% Tax Rate 30%
Price/ton (pounds sterling) 675 Investment Outlay (mill.) 12.0
Inflation Rate (prices and costs) 0.0% Depreciable Life (years) 15
Gross Margin (ex. Deprec.) 12.50% Salvage Value 0
Old Gross Margin 11.5% WIP Inventory/Cost of Goods 3.0%
Energy Savings/Sales Yr. 1-5 1.25% Months Downtime, Construction 1.5
Yr. 6-10 0.75% Preliminary Engineering Costs 0.5
Yr. 11-15 0.0% Overhead/Investment 3.5%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Year Now 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
1. Estimate of Incremental Gross Profit
New Output (tons) 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500
Lost Output--Construction (33,438)
New Sales (Millions) 157.99 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56
New Gross Margin 13.8% 13.8% 13.8% 13.8% 13.8% 13.3% 13.3% 13.3% 13.3% 13.3% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5%
New Gross Profit 21.72 24.83 24.83 24.83 24.83 23.92 23.92 23.92 23.92 23.92 22.57 22.57 22.57 22.57 22.57
Old Output 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000
Old Sales 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75
Old Gross Profit 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41
Incremental Gross Profit 2.32 5.42 5.42 5.42 5.42 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52 3.16 3.16 3.16 3.16 3.16
2. Estimate of Incremental WIP inventory
New WIP inventory 4.67 4.67 4.67 4.67 4.67 4.70 4.70 4.70 4.70 4.70 4.74 4.74 4.74 4.74 4.74
Old WIP inventory 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48
Incremental WIP inventory 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26
3. Estimate of Incremental Depreciation
New Depreciation 1.60 1.39 1.20 1.04 0.90 0.78 0.68 0.59 0.51 0.44 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.57
4. Overhead 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42
5. Prelim. Engineering Costs 0.50
Pretax Incremental Profit -0.20 3.61 3.80 3.96 4.10 3.32 3.42 3.51 3.59 3.66 2.17 2.17 2.17 2.17 2.17
6. Cash Flow Adjustments
Less Capital Expenditures-12.00
Add back Depreciation 1.60 1.39 1.20 1.04 0.90 0.78 0.68 0.59 0.51 0.44 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.57
Less Added WIP inventory -0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
7. Free Cash Flow -12.00 1.27 3.92 3.86 3.81 3.77 3.08 3.07 3.05 3.02 3.00 2.05 2.09 2.09 2.09 2.09
NPV = 10.45
IRR = 24.04%
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