188437221 case 22 victoria chemicals plc a

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Exhibit 2 VICTORIA CHEMICALS (A) Frank Greystock's DCF Analysis of Merseyside Project (financial values in millions of British pounds) Assumptions Old Annual Output in tons 250000 Discount Rate 10.00% Out Gain/Original Output 7.00% Tax Rate 30.00% New Annual Output in tons 267500 Investment 12000000 2000000 Price Per ton 675 Depreciable Life 15 10 Inflation Rate 0 Salvage Value 0 0 Gross Margin 12.50% WIP Inventory/Cost of goods 3.00% Old Gross Margin 11.50% Months down 1.5 Earning Savings Prelim. Engineering cost 1-5years 1.25% Overhead/Investments 6-10years 0.75% 11-15years 0.00% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Year Now 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1. Estimate of Incremental Gross Profit New Output (tons) 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 Lost Output--Construction (33,438) New Sales (Millions) 157.99 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 New Gross Margin 13.8% 13.8% 13.8% 13.8% 13.8% 13.3% 13.3% 13.3% 13.3% 13.3% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% New Gross Profit 21.72 24.83 24.83 24.83 24.83 23.92 23.92 23.92 23.92 23.92 22.57 22.57 22.57 22.57 22.57 Old Output 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 Old Sales (Millions) 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 Old Gross Profit 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 Incremental Gross Profit 2.32 5.42 5.42 5.42 5.42 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52 3.16 3.16 3.16 3.16 3.16 2. Estimate of Incremental WIP inventory New WIP inventory 4.67 4.67 4.67 4.67 4.67 4.70 4.70 4.70 4.70 4.70 4.74 4.74 4.74 4.74 4.74 Old WIP inventory 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 Incremental WIP inventory 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 3. Estimate of Incremental Depreciation New Depreciation 1.60 1.39 1.20 1.04 0.90 0.78 0.68 0.59 0.51 0.44 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.57 More Depreciation 0.400 0.320 0.256 0.205 0.164 0.131 0.105 0.084 0.17 0.17 4. Overhead 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5. Prelim. Engineering Costs (Sunk Cost) 0.00 Pretax Incremental Profit 0.72 4.03 4.22 3.98 4.20 3.48 3.64 3.77 3.88 3.97 2.51 2.42 2.42 2.59 2.59 6. Cash Flow Adjustments Less Capital Expenditures 12.00 2.00 Add back Depreciation 1.60 1.39 1.20 1.44 1.22 1.04 0.88 0.75 0.64 0.55 0.66 0.74 0.74 0.57 0.57 Less Added WIP inventory -0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7. Free Cash Flow -12.00 1.91 4.21 4.16 2.23 4.16 3.50 3.43 3.39 3.35 3.33 2.45 2.44 2.44 2.39 2.39 NPV = 12.01 IRR = 25.79% Two way data table Price 12.01 500 $ 525 $ 550 $ 575 $ 600 $ 625 $ 650 $ 675 $ IRR 25000 (9.35) (9.27) (9.19) (9.11) (9.03) (8.95) (8.87) (8.79) 25.79% 50000 (7.76) (7.60) (7.44) (7.29) (7.13) (6.97) (6.81) (6.65) 25000 -7.20% 75000 (6.17) (5.94) (5.70) (5.46) (5.22) (4.98) (4.74) (4.51) 50000 -1.85% 100000 (4.58) (4.27) (3.95) (3.63) (3.31) (3.00) (2.68) (2.36) 75000 2.48% Units 125000 (3.00) (2.60) (2.20) (1.80) (1.41) (1.01) (0.61) (0.22) 100000 6.26% 150000 (1.41) (0.93) (0.45) 0.02 0.50 0.98 1.45 1.93 125000 9.67% 175000 0.18 0.74 1.29 1.85 2.40 2.96 3.52 4.07 150000 12.83% 200000 1.77 2.40 3.04 3.68 4.31 4.95 5.58 6.22 175000 15.81% 225000 3.36 4.07 4.79 5.50 6.22 6.93 7.65 8.36 200000 18.65% 250000 4.95 5.74 6.54 7.33 8.12 8.92 9.71 10.51 225000 21.37% 275000 6.54 7.41 8.28 9.16 10.03 10.90 11.78 12.65 250000 24.00% 275000 26.55%

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Page 1: 188437221 Case 22 Victoria Chemicals Plc A

Exhibit 2

VICTORIA CHEMICALS (A)

Frank Greystock's DCF Analysis of Merseyside Project

(financial values in millions of British pounds)

Assumptions

Old Annual Output in tons 250000 Discount Rate 10.00%

Out Gain/Original Output 7.00% Tax Rate 30.00%

New Annual Output in tons 267500 Investment 12000000 2000000

Price Per ton 675 Depreciable Life 15 10

Inflation Rate 0 Salvage Value 0 0

Gross Margin 12.50% WIP Inventory/Cost of goods 3.00%

Old Gross Margin 11.50% Months down 1.5

Earning Savings Prelim. Engineering cost

1-5years 1.25% Overhead/Investments

6-10years 0.75%

11-15years 0.00%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Year Now 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

1. Estimate of Incremental Gross Profit

New Output (tons) 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500

Lost Output--Construction (33,438)

New Sales (Millions) 157.99 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56

New Gross Margin 13.8% 13.8% 13.8% 13.8% 13.8% 13.3% 13.3% 13.3% 13.3% 13.3% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5%

New Gross Profit 21.72 24.83 24.83 24.83 24.83 23.92 23.92 23.92 23.92 23.92 22.57 22.57 22.57 22.57 22.57

Old Output 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000

Old Sales (Millions) 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75

Old Gross Profit 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41

Incremental Gross Profit 2.32 5.42 5.42 5.42 5.42 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52 3.16 3.16 3.16 3.16 3.16

2. Estimate of Incremental WIP inventory

New WIP inventory 4.67 4.67 4.67 4.67 4.67 4.70 4.70 4.70 4.70 4.70 4.74 4.74 4.74 4.74 4.74

Old WIP inventory 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48

Incremental WIP inventory 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26

3. Estimate of Incremental Depreciation

New Depreciation 1.60 1.39 1.20 1.04 0.90 0.78 0.68 0.59 0.51 0.44 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.57

More Depreciation 0.400 0.320 0.256 0.205 0.164 0.131 0.105 0.084 0.17 0.17

4. Overhead 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

5. Prelim. Engineering Costs (Sunk Cost) 0.00

Pretax Incremental Profit 0.72 4.03 4.22 3.98 4.20 3.48 3.64 3.77 3.88 3.97 2.51 2.42 2.42 2.59 2.59

6. Cash Flow Adjustments

Less Capital Expenditures 12.00 2.00

Add back Depreciation 1.60 1.39 1.20 1.44 1.22 1.04 0.88 0.75 0.64 0.55 0.66 0.74 0.74 0.57 0.57

Less Added WIP inventory -0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

7. Free Cash Flow -12.00 1.91 4.21 4.16 2.23 4.16 3.50 3.43 3.39 3.35 3.33 2.45 2.44 2.44 2.39 2.39

NPV = 12.01

IRR = 25.79% Two way data table

Price

12.01 500$ 525$ 550$ 575$ 600$ 625$ 650$ 675$

IRR 25000 (9.35) (9.27) (9.19) (9.11) (9.03) (8.95) (8.87) (8.79)

25.79% 50000 (7.76) (7.60) (7.44) (7.29) (7.13) (6.97) (6.81) (6.65)

25000 -7.20% 75000 (6.17) (5.94) (5.70) (5.46) (5.22) (4.98) (4.74) (4.51)

50000 -1.85% 100000 (4.58) (4.27) (3.95) (3.63) (3.31) (3.00) (2.68) (2.36)

75000 2.48% Units 125000 (3.00) (2.60) (2.20) (1.80) (1.41) (1.01) (0.61) (0.22)

100000 6.26% 150000 (1.41) (0.93) (0.45) 0.02 0.50 0.98 1.45 1.93

125000 9.67% 175000 0.18 0.74 1.29 1.85 2.40 2.96 3.52 4.07

150000 12.83% 200000 1.77 2.40 3.04 3.68 4.31 4.95 5.58 6.22

175000 15.81% 225000 3.36 4.07 4.79 5.50 6.22 6.93 7.65 8.36

200000 18.65% 250000 4.95 5.74 6.54 7.33 8.12 8.92 9.71 10.51

225000 21.37% 275000 6.54 7.41 8.28 9.16 10.03 10.90 11.78 12.65

250000 24.00%

275000 26.55%

Page 2: 188437221 Case 22 Victoria Chemicals Plc A

Exhibit 2

VICTORIA CHEMICALS (A)

Frank Greystock's DCF Analysis of Merseyside Project

(financial values in millions of British pounds)

Assumptions

New Annual Output

Annual Output (metric tons) 250,000 Discount rate 10.0%

Output Gain/Original Output 7.0% Tax Rate 30%

Price/ton (pounds sterling) 675 Investment Outlay (mill.) 12.0

Inflation Rate (prices and costs) 0.0% Depreciable Life (years) 15

Gross Margin (ex. Deprec.) 12.50% Salvage Value 0

Old Gross Margin 11.5% WIP Inventory/Cost of Goods 3.0%

Energy Savings/Sales Yr. 1-5 1.25% Months Downtime, Construction 1.5

Yr. 6-10 0.75% Preliminary Engineering Costs 0.5

Yr. 11-15 0.0% Overhead/Investment 3.5%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Year Now 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

1. Estimate of Incremental Gross Profit

New Output (tons) 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500 267,500

Lost Output--Construction (33,438)

New Sales (Millions) 157.99 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56 180.56

New Gross Margin 13.8% 13.8% 13.8% 13.8% 13.8% 13.3% 13.3% 13.3% 13.3% 13.3% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5% 12.5%

New Gross Profit 21.72 24.83 24.83 24.83 24.83 23.92 23.92 23.92 23.92 23.92 22.57 22.57 22.57 22.57 22.57

Old Output 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000

Old Sales 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75 168.75

Old Gross Profit 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41 19.41

Incremental Gross Profit 2.32 5.42 5.42 5.42 5.42 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52 4.52 3.16 3.16 3.16 3.16 3.16

2. Estimate of Incremental WIP inventory

New WIP inventory 4.67 4.67 4.67 4.67 4.67 4.70 4.70 4.70 4.70 4.70 4.74 4.74 4.74 4.74 4.74

Old WIP inventory 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48

Incremental WIP inventory 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26

3. Estimate of Incremental Depreciation

New Depreciation 1.60 1.39 1.20 1.04 0.90 0.78 0.68 0.59 0.51 0.44 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.57

4. Overhead 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42 0.42

5. Prelim. Engineering Costs 0.50

Pretax Incremental Profit -0.20 3.61 3.80 3.96 4.10 3.32 3.42 3.51 3.59 3.66 2.17 2.17 2.17 2.17 2.17

6. Cash Flow Adjustments

Less Capital Expenditures-12.00

Add back Depreciation 1.60 1.39 1.20 1.04 0.90 0.78 0.68 0.59 0.51 0.44 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.57

Less Added WIP inventory -0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

7. Free Cash Flow -12.00 1.27 3.92 3.86 3.81 3.77 3.08 3.07 3.05 3.02 3.00 2.05 2.09 2.09 2.09 2.09

NPV = 10.45

IRR = 24.04%