1610 observation trumps ancient wisdom

“There are infinite worlds both like and unlike this world of ours...We must believe that in all worlds there are living creatures and planets and other things we see in this world.”

Epicurius c. 300

B.C

1610 observation trumps ancient wisdom

1584"There are countless suns and countless earths all rotating around their suns in exactly the same way as the seven planets of our system . . . The countless worlds in the universe are no worse and no less inhabited than our Earth”

Giordano Brunoin De L'infinito

Universo E Mondi

Planet Detection

Earth Masses

SUPER-EARTHS

An optical/near-infrared space telescope with a filled aperture of at least 8-meters will probably be

required to definitively answer the question “Are we alone?”

HST 2.4-mJWST 6.5-m ATLAST 8-m ATLAST 16-m

stars

Aperture size in meters

Number of FGK stars in 100 light-year search radius

1.5m 2.4m 4m 10mEarth

Venus

Coronagraph performance vs. telescope aperture

the faint trace of lifethe faint trace of life

The "red edge" is a well-known signature of chlorophyll, which appears green to us only because our eyes aren't very sensitive at the red end of the visible spectrum.

Life in the Universe

All Life

Liquid water

Carbon-based

Chemical Energy

• A thermodynamic disequilibrium

• A thermodynamic disequilibrium

star, molten interior, impact melt,

• A thermodynamic disequilibrium

• An environment capable of maintaining links between carbon, hydrogen, and other atoms to build complex molecules.

• A thermodynamic disequilibrium

• An environment capable of maintaining links between carbon, hydrogen, and other atoms .

All living things use mundane elements, the common stuff found all over the place: carbon, hydrogen, nitrogen, oxygen, phosphorous and sulfur. Life buys everything off the rack.

• A thermodynamic disequilibrium

• An environment capable of maintaining links between carbon, hydrogen, and other atoms

• A liquid environment

ammonia, formedehyde (TItan?), sulfuric acid (Venus), dinotrogen (cryolife, Triton)

• A thermodynamic disequilibrium

• An environment capable of maintaining between carbon, hydrogen, and other atoms

• A liquid environment

• A molecular system that can support Darwinian evolution.

The Benner group has worked to identify molecular structures likely to be universal features of living systems regardless of their genesis, and not likely products of non-biological processes

There isn’t as much ethane in Titan's atmosphere as expected. Could Methanogens be eating it?

Or could a strange non-biological process be at work?

TAU CETI

EPSILON ERIDANI

Project Ozmabegan

searchingin 1960

THE OBSERVABLE DRAKE EQUATION

ETL = NP X FTP X FPw X FPL

ETL = Planets with extraterrestrial life in the GalaxyNp = Number of exoplanetsFpt = Fraction of terrestrial planetsFPw = Fraction of terrestrial planets with waterFPl = Fraction of terrestrial planets with carbon-based life

Last Sentence of this paper: (1959. Nature 184: 844–46)

The probability of success is difficult to estimate;but if we never search, the chance of success is zero.

Last Sentence of this paper: (1959. Nature 184: 844–46)

The probability of success is difficult to estimate;but if we never search, the chance of success is zero.

October 1, 1993

saying "The great Martian chasehas finally come to an end. As of today, millions have been spent and we have yet tobag a single little green fellow. Not a single Martian has said 'take me to your leader', and not a single flying saucer has applied for FAA approval. It may be funny to some, except the punchline includes a $12.3 million price tag to the taxpayer.”

NevadaSenatorRichardBryan (D)

Mopra

Parkes

Lovell

Arecibo

Woodbury

140 Ft.

NASA-derivedTSS: full custom

NSS: PCs+ accelerators

2.2 x 105 Star-MHz 2.9 x 105 Star-MHz 4.8 x 105 Star-MHz

Project Phoenix: 1994 - 2004

Tomorrow: Low Frequency SETIEavesdropping on ET TV

LOFAR

First LOFAR station

Dense core sitefor six stations

Dark Ages Lunar Interferometer

No ionosphere

10-100 MHz

TsiolkovskyCrater

Expand The Galactic

Exploration

ATA

Phoenix

SKA

10 – 100 Million target stars

within 10,000 ly

OSETI

95

Should We Broadcast?

Who Should Speak For Earth?Who Should Speak For Earth?

What Should They Say?What Should They Say?

Transmission requires:Transmission requires:Long term commitmentLong term commitmentGlobal cooperation and coordinationGlobal cooperation and coordination

Past SETI searchesfor limited sets of hypotheses

SETI Is a Misnomer

The Search for ExtraTerrestrial IntelligenceNot!

The Search for ExtraTerrestrial Technology• Magic?• Astroengineering artifacts

– Power production– Transportation– War– Communications

Serendipitous discovery

Past SETI searchesfor limited sets of hypotheses

SETI Is a Misnomer

The Search for ExtraTerrestrial IntelligenceNot!

The Search for ExtraTerrestrial Technology• Magic?• Astroengineering artifacts

– Power production– Transportation– War– Communications

Serendipitous discovery

Dyson Sphere Asteroidmining

Ida&

Dactyl

Gamma-ray Bursts

Accelerationsof photon rockets?

station keeping atLagrange points?

Przybylski's Star

HD101065

Fissile waste dump?

Tritium Line@ 1512 MHz(21 cm analog)

Not nea SNR

Leakage from fusion plant?

L.F. A. Arnold (2005)

Enrico Fermi 1950

FERMI PARADOX

if the rise of advanced civilizations and space colonization are at all likely, aliens should have been to Earth by now.

Yet there is no sign of them.

Does this imply that aliens do not exist or that space colonization may be undesirable?

Maybe There's nothing paradoxical about it. It's just ignorance.

FERMI’S RATIONALIZATION

Our descendants will travel out to the nearby stars.

Colonies planted around these stars would be expected soon to expand further in a wave, spreading through the entire galaxy in less than a hundred million years

Other intelligent civilizations must have gotten a head start on us and should long since have filled the galaxy.

Where Are They ??

Where Are They ??

• Zoo Hypothesis – they stay away from us

Where Are They ??

• Zoo Hypothesis – they stay away from us

• Ant Farm Hypothesis – they are too advanced to be interested in us.

Where Are They ??

• Zoo Hypothesis – they stay away from us

• Ant Farm Hypothesis – they are too advanced

• Dr. Strangelove Hypothesis

Where Are They ??

• Zoo Hypothesis – they stay away from us

• Ant Farm Hypothesis – they are too advanced

• Dr. Strangelove Hypothesis • AI Hypothesis – Mecca replaces Org

Where Are They ??

• Zoo Hypothesis – they stay away from us

• Ant Farm Hypothesis – they are too advanced

• Dr. Strangelove Hypothesis • AI Hypothesis – Mecca replaces Org• Space travel too expensive or difficult

Where Are They ??

• Zoo Hypothesis – they stay away from us

• Ant Farm Hypothesis – they are too advanced

• Dr. Strangelove Hypothesis • AI Hypothesis – Mecca replaces Org• Interstellar travel too expensive or

difficult• They lack curiosity

Where Are They ??

• Proxmire Effect

You're serious then.

They're made out of meat.

Yes. They are indeed made out meat. And they've been trying to get in touch with us for almost a hundred of their years."  

"So what does the meat have in mind.”

“First it wants to talk to us. Then I imagine it wants to explore the universe, contact other sentients, swap ideas and information.” .""It seems harsh, but there is a limit. Do we really want to make contact with meat?"  

"I agree one hundred percent. What's there to say?" `Hello, meat. How's it going?'

THE RAMIFICATIONS OF CONTACT

• If any signal is unambiguously verified as being extraterrestrial, it will be openly announced.

THE RAMIFICATIONS OF CONTACT

• If any signal is unambiguously verified as being extraterrestrial, it will be openly announced.

• The majority of Americans already believe in the existence of extraterrestrial beings.

THE RAMIFICATIONS OF CONTACT

• If any signal is unambiguously verified as being extraterrestrial, it will be openly announced.

• The majority of Americans already believe in the existence of extraterrestrial beings.

• However, the public might expect a "message". They will get bored if no message is decoded.

THE RAMIFICATIONS OF CONTACT

• If any signal is unambiguously verified as being extraterrestrial, it will be openly announced.

• The majority of Americans already believe in the existence of extraterrestrial beings.

• However, the public might expect a "message". They will get bored if no message is decoded.

• Nations will engage in a new “space race” to build ever larger telescopes for better resolving the beacon.

• some religious and conspiracy groups will reject the signal as a fake. Most religions would embrace the discovery as reinforcing evidence for a God.

• Historical precedent (Copernicus, Darwin, etc.) suggests a gradual change in world view rather than a dramatic upset in the daily conduct of society.