100514 waiting for the water to come[1] - india, south asia · dr. fabian scholtes, zef dr....

Dr. Fabian Scholtes, ZEFDr. Anna-Katharina Hornidge (Case study Indonesia), ZEF

EDITOR:CARE DEUTSCHLAND-LUXEMBURG, CENTER FOR DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH (ZEF) 2009

Foreword

I. Introduction: climate change and poverty reduction are inseparable II. Climate change

III. What climate change impacts are anticipated in future?

IV. Climate change and poverty reduction

V. Poverty reduction and strategies to secure livelihoods: case studies and lessons learned

VI. Case study West Timor, Indonesia

VII. Recommendations: poverty reduction in times of climate change

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RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ORGANISATIONS ON POVERTY REDUCTION

THE POOR ARE PARTICULARLY AFFECTED BY CLIMATE CHANGE AND VULNERABLE TO ITS IMPACTS

I. Climate change and poverty reduction are inseparable

II. Climate changeCONSEQUENCES AND PROJECTIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

II.1.CLIMATIC EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING

II.2 PHYSICAL EFFECTS BEYOND CLIMATE CHANGE

BOX 1: CASCADE EFFECTS: A DAM BURST SCENARIO

II.3 CONSEQUENCES AND EXTREME EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE: FEEDBACK AND TIPPING ELEMENTS

II.4 ECONOMIC AND HEALTH IMPACTS

Changes in agricultural production potential (2080s, in % of the potential of 2000)

III. What climate change impacts are anticipated in future?

III.1 GLOBAL PROJECTIONS: IMPACTS

IV.1 CLIMATE CHANGE, POVERTY AND POVERTY REDUCTION: HOW ARE THEY RELATED?

IV. Climate change and poverty reduction

Food

Water

Ecosystems

Extreme weather conditions

Risk of rapid climate change and large-scale irreversible effects

Final temperature levels (compared to preindustrial levels0° C 1° C 2° C 3° C 4° C 5° C

Disappearance of small glaciers worldwide – potentialthreat to water supply in many areas

Considerable changes in water availability

Over 30% increase on flowing away of surface water in the Mediterranean region and in southern Africa

Rising sea levels threaten large cities such as London, Shanghai,New York, Tokyo or Hong Kong

Coral reef ecosystems extensively damaged; damage finally irreversible

Possible start of breakdown of parts of or all the Amazon rain forest

Large proportion of ecosystems which cannot preserve their present form

Many species threatened with extinction

Increasing intensity of storms, forest fires, flooding and heatwaves

Slight increase in hurricane intensity causes twice as much damage in dollars in the USA

Danger of weakening of natural carbon dioxide sinks and the Atlantic thermohaline circulation; possible increase in release of natural methane

Start of irreversible melting of Greenland icecap

Increased risk of abrupt, large-scale climate shifts (e.g. collapse of Atlantic thermohaline circulation or western Antarctic icesheet)

Severe effects in the Sahel zone

Increasing harvests in many developed regions due to CO2 fertilizer effect

Decline of harvests in many developed regions despite CO2 fertilizer effect

Decreasing harvests in many developing regions

Rising number of people threatened by hunger. Biggest increase in Africa and West Asia

Severe decline of harvests in whole regions (e.g. up to one third of Africa)

BOX 2: MI BOSQUE. CLIMATE PROTECTION = POVERTY REDUCTIONG

IV.2 ADAPTING TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

IV.3 SUPPORTING RESILIENCE

IV.4 CRITERIA FOR SUCCESSFUL ADAPTATION MEASURES

1 2 3 4

IV.5 MEASURES

CRITERION DESCRIPTION

EFFECTIVE-NESS

FLEXIBILITY

FAIRNESS

EFFICIENCY

SUSTAINA-BILITY

PROTECTION AND MAINTENANCE OF LIVELIHOODS SUPPORTING LIVELIHOODS

V. Poverty reduction and strate-gies to secure livelihoods: case studies and lessons learned

V.1 SMALLHOLDER FARMERS IN TANZANIA: SPECIAL-ISING AND REDUCING DEPENDENCE ON AGRICULTURE

V.2 MICROINSURANCE IN INDIA: THE POOR PROTECT THEMSELVES AGAINST RISKS

BOX 3: MICROINSURANCES AND WEATHER-RELATED DISASTERS: CARE INDIA AND BAJAJ ALLIANCE

VI. Case study West Timor, Indonesia

VI.1 IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN (EAST) INDONESIA

VI.2 TOINEKE, WEST TIMOR: ECONOMY AND SOCIETY

GENERAL DATA ON WEST TIMOR, INDONESIA

VI.3 PERCEPTIBLE LOCAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

CASE STUDY: IBU YANSE TON

VI.4 COPING AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES

Preventive measures to avert the impacts of climate change

CASE STUDY: PAK AUGUSTINUS LEBISA UND IBU NAEMA BANOET

Short-term reactive coping strategies

Future oriented coping strategies

Long-term adaptation strategies

CASE STUDY: IBU YANSE LAKABU

CASE STUDY: PAK YANDRI A. NENO UND IBU ANTONIA MISA

VI.5 TOINEKE: AN EXAMPLE OF LIFE IN POVERTY IN CONDITIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

VII. Recommendations: poverty reduction in times of climate change

Bibliography

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