1. hurricane forecast model enron email corpus lcdr matt tabar lcdr william evans

Hurricane ForecastModel

Enron Email Corpus

LCDR Matt TabarLCDR William Evans

5

Outline

• History of ENRON• Email Corpus

–Makeup and Generation–Assumptions

• Graph construction• Time-series analysis

6

BLUF

• Divided the network into time periods• Examined the communication between 7

executives• Compared the strength of the communications

by max-flow interdiction (four ways)

7

ENRON Brief History

• 1932 - Northern Natural Gas Company, OK• 1979 - Reorganized as InterNorth • 1985

– Bought Houston Natural Gas– Moved to Houston, changed name to ENRON

• Lied, cheated, swindled• Sept. 9, 2001 - Scandal breaks out• Dec. 1, 2001 - Filed for bankruptcy

8

How bad was it?

• ENRON – CalPERS venture• Joint Energy Development Investments – JEDI• Set up Chewco Investments Ltd. to buy it• ENRON has a positive bottom line

9

The (really) bottom line

10

Cast of Characters – The 7

• Kenneth.Lay@Enron.com Chairman, CEO

• Jeffrey.Skilling@Enron.com Pres., COO, CEO• Andrew.Fastow@Enron.com CFO• Richard.Causey@Enron.com CAO• Greg.Whalley@Enron.com Pres., COO• Jeffrey.McMahon@Enron.com CFO• Raymond.Bowen@Enron.com CFO

11

Time Breakdown

CEO

COO

CFO

CAO

Block

Year

Lay

Lay

Lay

1 2 3 4 5 6

1999 2000 2001 2002

B

12

Time Breakdown

CEO

COO

CFO

CAO

Block

Year

Lay

Skilling

Skilling

Lay

Lay

1 2 3 4 5 6

1999 2000 2001 2002

B

13

Time Breakdown

CEO

COO

CFO

CAO

Block

Year

Lay

Skilling

Fastow

Skilling

Lay

Lay

1 2 3 4 5 6

1999 2000 2001 2002

B

14

Time Breakdown

CEO

COO

CFO

CAO

Block

Year

Lay

Skilling

Fastow

Causey

Skilling

Lay

Lay

1 2 3 4 5 6

1999 2000 2001 2002

B

15

Time Breakdown

CEO

COO

CFO

CAO

Block

Year

Lay

Skilling

Fastow

Causey

Skilling

Lay

Lay

Whalley

1 2 3 4 5 6

1999 2000 2001 2002

B

16

Time Breakdown

CEO

COO

CFO

CAO

Block

Year

Lay

Skilling

Fastow

Causey

Skilling

Lay

Lay

Whalley

McMahon

1 2 3 4 5 6

1999 2000 2001 2002

B

17

Time Breakdown

CEO

COO

CFO

CAO

Block

Year

Lay

Skilling

Fastow

Causey

Skilling

Lay

Lay

Whalley

McMahon Bowen

1 2 3 4 5 6

1999 2000 2001 2002

B

18

Corpus Makeup

490,209 Emails

19

Corpus Makeup

490,209 Emails

76,312 Unique To: addresses (58% external)

20

Corpus Makeup

490,209 Emails

76,312 Unique To: addresses (58% external)

19,479 Unique From: addresses

21

Corpus Makeup

490,209 Emails

76,312 Unique To: addresses (58% external)

19,479 Unique From: addresses

5,703 Unique internal addresses

22

Corpus Makeup

490,209 Emails

76,312 Unique To: addresses (58% external)

19,479 Unique From: addresses

5,703 Unique internal addresses

150 Employee’s email folders

23

Corpus Makeup

Message-ID: <3513531.1075852348029.JavaMail.evans@thyme>Date: Mon, 15 Oct 2001 17:39:14 -0700 (PDT)From: pr <.palmer@enron.com>To: kenneth.lay@enron.com, greg.whalley@enron.com, j..kean@enron.com, mark.koenig@enron.com, paula.rieker@enron.com, karen.denne@enron.comSubject: Reuters story on Dynegy 3Q earnings

We'll get pointed questions related to Europe and broadband thanks to Steve Bergstrom. Suggest we answer that we feel confident that the first mover advantage will give us superior returns in the long run.

Message-ID: <29382990.1075852344558.JavaMail.evans@thyme>Date: Sat, 27 Oct 2001 09:13:59 -0700 (PDT)From: karen.denne@enron.comTo: j..kean@enron.com, pr <.palmer@enron.com>, mark.koenig@enron.com, jeffrey.mcmahon@enron.com, rex.rogers@enron.com, ben.glisan@enron.com, tim.despain@enron.com, ken.lay-@enron.comCc: karen.denne@enron.com, m..schmidt@enron.comBcc: karen.denne@enron.com, m..schmidt@enron.comSubject: Saturday Articles

Enron taps credit line; stock slides

Message-ID: <10795837.1075852348240.JavaMail.evans@thyme>Date: Mon, 15 Oct 2001 02:06:41 -0700 (PDT)From: john.sherriff@enron.comTo: ken.lay-.chairman.of.the.board@enron.comCc: mark.frevert@enron.com, greg.whalley@enron.com, london.brown@enron.com, eric.shaw@enron.com, lloyd.wantschek@enron.com, john.sherriff@enron.comSubject: Turkish industrialist Nuri Coalkoglu

Ken

I understand a Turkish industrialist named Nuri ?olakoglu has been in contact with you through Bill Miller and possibly Jerry Giest. Colakoglu is an extremely wealthy and well regarded Turkish industrialist who has aggressively expanded into the Turkish energy sector.

24

Assumptions

• Strength of relationship based on email• Not all email is created equal• There are additional interesting people• Likely missing emails

25

Graph Construction

Koffi

Cordell

Treml

Whelan

Cipperley

Fleischmann

Schramm

Ramert

Young

Kaymal-1

Dunham

Burton

Kaymal-2

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Graph Construction

Koffi

Cordell

Treml

Whelan

Cipperley

Fleischmann

Schramm

Ramert

Young

Kaymal-1

Dunham

Burton

Kaymal-2

27

Graph Construction

Koffi

Cordell

Treml

Whelan

Cipperley

Fleischmann

Schramm

Ramert

Young

Kaymal

Dunham

Burton

28

Graph Construction

Koffi

Cordell

Treml

Whelan

Cipperley

Fleischmann

Schramm

Ramert

Young

Kaymal

Dunham

Burton

29

Graph Construction

Koffi

Cordell

Treml

Whelan

Cipperley

Fleischmann

Schramm

Ramert

Young

Kaymal

Dunham

Burton

30

Graph Construction

Koffi

Cordell

Treml

Whelan

Cipperley

Fleischmann

Schramm

Ramert

Young

Kaymal

Dunham

Burton

31

Graph Construction

Koffi

Cordell

Treml

Whelan

Cipperley

Fleischmann

Young

Kaymal

Dunham

Burton

32

Graph Construction

Koffi

Cordell

Treml

Whelan

Cipperley

Fleischmann

Young

Kaymal

Dunham

Burton

33

Graph Construction

Koffi

Cordell

Treml

Whelan

Cipperley

Fleischmann

Young

Kaymal

Burton

34

Graph Construction

Koffi

Cordell

Treml

Whelan

Cipperley

Fleischmann

Young

Kaymal

Burton

35

Graph Construction

Koffi

Cordell

Whelan

Cipperley

Fleischmann

Kaymal

Burton

36

1999 2000 2001 Jan-Jun

2001 Jul-Sep 2001 Oct-Dec 2002

Graph Construction

37

Period Distribution

2002

2001 Oct-Dec

2001 Jul-Sep

2001 Jan-Jun

2000

1999

0200004000060000

Edges

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Nodes

38

Graph Analysis

Koffi

Cordell

Whelan

Cipperley

Fleischmann

Kaymal

Burton

39

Graph Analysis

Koffi

Whelan

Fleischmann

Kaymal

Cipperley

Cordell

Burton

40

Graph Analysis

Koffi

Cordell

Whelan

Cipperley

Fleischmann

Kaymal

Burton

41

Graph Analysis

Koffi

Cordell

Whelan

Cipperley

Fleischmann

Kaymal

Burton

42

43

44

45

46

47

49

Greg.Whalley@Enron.com

50

Kenneth.Lay@Enron.com

51

Jeffrey.Skilling@Enron.com

52

Richard.Causey@Enron.com

53

Jeffrey.McMahon@Enron.com

54

Raymond.Bowen@Enron.com

55

Andrew.Fastow@Enron.com

57

JEDI Graph

Whalley

Lay

Skilling

CauseyFastow

McMahonBowen

58

Conclusions

• You too can analyze a social network• Ned has a large server available• Payoff for pre-GAMS data normalizing• Nothing deterministic / legally defensible

– Good starting point for follow-on investigation

• Good indicator of missing information• Trifecta: Lay, Skilling, and Fastow