1. hurricane forecast model enron email corpus lcdr matt tabar lcdr william evans
TRANSCRIPT
Hurricane ForecastModel
Enron Email Corpus
LCDR Matt TabarLCDR William Evans
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Outline
• History of ENRON• Email Corpus
–Makeup and Generation–Assumptions
• Graph construction• Time-series analysis
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BLUF
• Divided the network into time periods• Examined the communication between 7
executives• Compared the strength of the communications
by max-flow interdiction (four ways)
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ENRON Brief History
• 1932 - Northern Natural Gas Company, OK• 1979 - Reorganized as InterNorth • 1985
– Bought Houston Natural Gas– Moved to Houston, changed name to ENRON
• Lied, cheated, swindled• Sept. 9, 2001 - Scandal breaks out• Dec. 1, 2001 - Filed for bankruptcy
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How bad was it?
• ENRON – CalPERS venture• Joint Energy Development Investments – JEDI• Set up Chewco Investments Ltd. to buy it• ENRON has a positive bottom line
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The (really) bottom line
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Cast of Characters – The 7
• [email protected] Chairman, CEO
• [email protected] Pres., COO, CEO• [email protected] CFO• [email protected] CAO• [email protected] Pres., COO• [email protected] CFO• [email protected] CFO
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Time Breakdown
CEO
COO
CFO
CAO
Block
Year
Lay
Lay
Lay
1 2 3 4 5 6
1999 2000 2001 2002
B
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Time Breakdown
CEO
COO
CFO
CAO
Block
Year
Lay
Skilling
Skilling
Lay
Lay
1 2 3 4 5 6
1999 2000 2001 2002
B
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Time Breakdown
CEO
COO
CFO
CAO
Block
Year
Lay
Skilling
Fastow
Skilling
Lay
Lay
1 2 3 4 5 6
1999 2000 2001 2002
B
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Time Breakdown
CEO
COO
CFO
CAO
Block
Year
Lay
Skilling
Fastow
Causey
Skilling
Lay
Lay
1 2 3 4 5 6
1999 2000 2001 2002
B
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Time Breakdown
CEO
COO
CFO
CAO
Block
Year
Lay
Skilling
Fastow
Causey
Skilling
Lay
Lay
Whalley
1 2 3 4 5 6
1999 2000 2001 2002
B
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Time Breakdown
CEO
COO
CFO
CAO
Block
Year
Lay
Skilling
Fastow
Causey
Skilling
Lay
Lay
Whalley
McMahon
1 2 3 4 5 6
1999 2000 2001 2002
B
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Time Breakdown
CEO
COO
CFO
CAO
Block
Year
Lay
Skilling
Fastow
Causey
Skilling
Lay
Lay
Whalley
McMahon Bowen
1 2 3 4 5 6
1999 2000 2001 2002
B
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Corpus Makeup
490,209 Emails
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Corpus Makeup
490,209 Emails
76,312 Unique To: addresses (58% external)
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Corpus Makeup
490,209 Emails
76,312 Unique To: addresses (58% external)
19,479 Unique From: addresses
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Corpus Makeup
490,209 Emails
76,312 Unique To: addresses (58% external)
19,479 Unique From: addresses
5,703 Unique internal addresses
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Corpus Makeup
490,209 Emails
76,312 Unique To: addresses (58% external)
19,479 Unique From: addresses
5,703 Unique internal addresses
150 Employee’s email folders
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Corpus Makeup
Message-ID: <3513531.1075852348029.JavaMail.evans@thyme>Date: Mon, 15 Oct 2001 17:39:14 -0700 (PDT)From: pr <[email protected]>To: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]: Reuters story on Dynegy 3Q earnings
We'll get pointed questions related to Europe and broadband thanks to Steve Bergstrom. Suggest we answer that we feel confident that the first mover advantage will give us superior returns in the long run.
Message-ID: <29382990.1075852344558.JavaMail.evans@thyme>Date: Sat, 27 Oct 2001 09:13:59 -0700 (PDT)From: [email protected]: [email protected], pr <[email protected]>, [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]: [email protected], [email protected]: [email protected], [email protected]: Saturday Articles
Enron taps credit line; stock slides
Message-ID: <10795837.1075852348240.JavaMail.evans@thyme>Date: Mon, 15 Oct 2001 02:06:41 -0700 (PDT)From: [email protected]: [email protected]: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]: Turkish industrialist Nuri Coalkoglu
Ken
I understand a Turkish industrialist named Nuri ?olakoglu has been in contact with you through Bill Miller and possibly Jerry Giest. Colakoglu is an extremely wealthy and well regarded Turkish industrialist who has aggressively expanded into the Turkish energy sector.
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Assumptions
• Strength of relationship based on email• Not all email is created equal• There are additional interesting people• Likely missing emails
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Graph Construction
Koffi
Cordell
Treml
Whelan
Cipperley
Fleischmann
Schramm
Ramert
Young
Kaymal-1
Dunham
Burton
Kaymal-2
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Graph Construction
Koffi
Cordell
Treml
Whelan
Cipperley
Fleischmann
Schramm
Ramert
Young
Kaymal-1
Dunham
Burton
Kaymal-2
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Graph Construction
Koffi
Cordell
Treml
Whelan
Cipperley
Fleischmann
Schramm
Ramert
Young
Kaymal
Dunham
Burton
28
Graph Construction
Koffi
Cordell
Treml
Whelan
Cipperley
Fleischmann
Schramm
Ramert
Young
Kaymal
Dunham
Burton
29
Graph Construction
Koffi
Cordell
Treml
Whelan
Cipperley
Fleischmann
Schramm
Ramert
Young
Kaymal
Dunham
Burton
30
Graph Construction
Koffi
Cordell
Treml
Whelan
Cipperley
Fleischmann
Schramm
Ramert
Young
Kaymal
Dunham
Burton
31
Graph Construction
Koffi
Cordell
Treml
Whelan
Cipperley
Fleischmann
Young
Kaymal
Dunham
Burton
32
Graph Construction
Koffi
Cordell
Treml
Whelan
Cipperley
Fleischmann
Young
Kaymal
Dunham
Burton
33
Graph Construction
Koffi
Cordell
Treml
Whelan
Cipperley
Fleischmann
Young
Kaymal
Burton
34
Graph Construction
Koffi
Cordell
Treml
Whelan
Cipperley
Fleischmann
Young
Kaymal
Burton
35
Graph Construction
Koffi
Cordell
Whelan
Cipperley
Fleischmann
Kaymal
Burton
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1999 2000 2001 Jan-Jun
2001 Jul-Sep 2001 Oct-Dec 2002
Graph Construction
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Period Distribution
2002
2001 Oct-Dec
2001 Jul-Sep
2001 Jan-Jun
2000
1999
0200004000060000
Edges
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Nodes
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Graph Analysis
Koffi
Cordell
Whelan
Cipperley
Fleischmann
Kaymal
Burton
39
Graph Analysis
Koffi
Whelan
Fleischmann
Kaymal
Cipperley
Cordell
Burton
40
Graph Analysis
Koffi
Cordell
Whelan
Cipperley
Fleischmann
Kaymal
Burton
41
Graph Analysis
Koffi
Cordell
Whelan
Cipperley
Fleischmann
Kaymal
Burton
42
43
44
45
46
47
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JEDI Graph
Whalley
Lay
Skilling
CauseyFastow
McMahonBowen
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Conclusions
• You too can analyze a social network• Ned has a large server available• Payoff for pre-GAMS data normalizing• Nothing deterministic / legally defensible
– Good starting point for follow-on investigation
• Good indicator of missing information• Trifecta: Lay, Skilling, and Fastow
