#1 databeersbcn - xavier

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Alea Iacta Est!

Understanding historical dynamics using Monte Carlo simulations

Xavier Rubio Campillo

xavier.rubio@bsc.es

@xrubiocampillo

@DataBeersBCN

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Understanding human culture

Gray, R. D.; Atkinson, Q.D. (2003) "Language-tree divergence times support the Anatolian theory of Indo-European origin." Nature 426.6965: 435-439

What data can we use?

A Data Science challenge

Pandora's box

We can do it!

Evolutionary biologists use data with similar problems

It's another type of historical research

We can use some of their tools

Siege warfare in XVIIIth century

Can we test this hypothesis?

"Vauban reversed the dominance of the trace italienne and overturned the pattern of long sieges of early centuries"

Ostwald, J. (2007). Vauban under siege. Engineering efficiency and Martial Vigor in the War of the Spanish Succession, Brill Academic.

“Data! Data! Data! I can't make bricks without clay!”

1. Formalise hypotheses

During the period 1702-1714...

H1 – The duration of sieges increased

H2 – The duration of sieges decreased

H3 – The uncertainty of sieges increased

H4 – The uncertainty of sieges decreased

2. Define a model

For each year between 1702-1714

Sample the number of sieges

For each siege sample its duration

Add to the mean/variance of duration some fixed value

3. Define the prior knowledge

4. The dice are cast!

Execute the model with randomly sampled values from your prior:

run 152112:

mean duration modifier = +1.5

variance duration modifier = -0.3

5. Approximate Bayesian Computation

Execute this algorithm for millions of runs

Store the parameters for the 1k runs with most similar output to historical data

Results

Find your posterior

Some remarks

Long-term perspectives are needed to understand cultural change

Data science is a revolution for understanding our past

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Moltes gràcies!

Xavier Rubio Campillo

xavier.rubio@bsc.es

@xrubiocampillo