#1 databeersbcn - xavier
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Alea Iacta Est!
Understanding historical dynamics using Monte Carlo simulations
Xavier Rubio Campillo
@xrubiocampillo
@DataBeersBCN
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Understanding human culture
Gray, R. D.; Atkinson, Q.D. (2003) "Language-tree divergence times support the Anatolian theory of Indo-European origin." Nature 426.6965: 435-439
What data can we use?
A Data Science challenge
Pandora's box
We can do it!
Evolutionary biologists use data with similar problems
It's another type of historical research
We can use some of their tools
Siege warfare in XVIIIth century
Can we test this hypothesis?
"Vauban reversed the dominance of the trace italienne and overturned the pattern of long sieges of early centuries"
Ostwald, J. (2007). Vauban under siege. Engineering efficiency and Martial Vigor in the War of the Spanish Succession, Brill Academic.
“Data! Data! Data! I can't make bricks without clay!”
1. Formalise hypotheses
During the period 1702-1714...
H1 – The duration of sieges increased
H2 – The duration of sieges decreased
H3 – The uncertainty of sieges increased
H4 – The uncertainty of sieges decreased
2. Define a model
For each year between 1702-1714
Sample the number of sieges
For each siege sample its duration
Add to the mean/variance of duration some fixed value
3. Define the prior knowledge
4. The dice are cast!
Execute the model with randomly sampled values from your prior:
run 152112:
mean duration modifier = +1.5
variance duration modifier = -0.3
5. Approximate Bayesian Computation
Execute this algorithm for millions of runs
Store the parameters for the 1k runs with most similar output to historical data
Results
Find your posterior
Some remarks
Long-term perspectives are needed to understand cultural change
Data science is a revolution for understanding our past
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Moltes gràcies!
Xavier Rubio Campillo
@xrubiocampillo