1 challenge the future modelling electricity transitions with an agent-based model jörn c....

1Challenge the future

Modelling Electricity Transitions with an Agent-Based ModelJörn C. Richstein

2Challenge the future

Why ABM for my question?

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Challenges in Transition Modellingof the Electricity System

Electricity System

CO2 RESCong. Mgtm.

Security of Supply

CO2 Emissions

Prices

Generation

Policy

Fuel Prices

Demand

Technologies

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Challenges in Transition Modelling

Electricity System

CO2

RES

Cong. Mgtm.

Security of Supply

CO2 Emissions

Prices

Generation

Policy

Fuel Prices

Demand

Technologies

Electricity System

CO2

RES

Cong. Mgtm.

Security of Supply

CO2 Emissions

Prices

Generation

Policy

Fuel Prices

Demand

Technologies

Path Dependence

t=0 t=1 t=2

Electricity System

CO2

RES

Cong. Mgtm.

Security of Supply

CO2 Emissions

Prices

Generation

Policy

Fuel Prices

Demand

Technologies

Electricity System

CO2

RES

Cong. Mgtm.

Security of Supply

CO2 Emissions

Prices

Generation

Policy

Fuel Prices

Demand

Technologies

Electricity System

CO2

RES

Cong. Mgtm.

Security of Supply

CO2 Emissions

Prices

Generation

Policy

Fuel Prices

Demand

Technologies

Electricity System

CO2

RES

Cong. Mgtm.

Security of Supply

CO2 Emissions

Prices

Generation

Policy

Fuel Prices

Demand

Technologies

Differences in:

• Technology specific revenue structure

• Technology specific learning

• Institutional arrangement

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Challenges in Transition ModellingHeterogeneous Agents & Expectations

Electricity System

CO2 RESCong. Mgtm.

Security of Supply

CO2 Emissions

Prices

Generation

Policy

Fuel Prices

Demand

Technologies

Electricity System

C O2

RES

Cong. Mgtm.

Security of

Supply

CO2 Emissions

Prices

Generation

Policy

Fuel Prices

Demand

Technologies

Electricity System

C O2

RES

Cong. Mgtm.

Security of

Supply

CO2 Emissions

Prices

Generation

Policy

Fuel Prices

Demand

Technologies

Investment decision

Investment decision

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Methodology

• Methodology where actors and environment are modelled from the bottom up by algorithmic description:• Naturally allows for heterogeneous agents• Differing levels of detail possible for technologies and

actors• Data richness an option (e.g. to include locational

specific meteorological data)• Focus on behaviour and emergence of phenomena

• Informational asymmetry and multiple equilibria can be represented (L. Tesfatsion, 2006)

• Since ABM is a generative methodology, out-of-equilibrium processes can be represented (W. B. Arthur, 2006)• Decisive for modelling slowly adjusting infrastructures in

transition

Agent-based Modelling

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EMLab

• Energy producers are the main agents, but other types exist, which incorporate simpler behaviour:• European government & national governments• Banks, commodity suppliers, etc.

• Energy Producers make investments in power plants:• Based on a per-agent merit-order forecast• On a yearly basis

• Energy producers bid into two-country electricity system, connected by market coupling and a common CO2 market

• Market clearing based on stepwise load-duration curve approximation of demand

Electricity Market Laboratory

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How?

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EMLab

• Implemented in Java, build with Maven• Uses AgentSpring (https://

github.com/alfredas/AgentSpring) as an ABM Framework• Split of Roles (Behaviour) and Agents• Uses a graph database for data storage (Neo4j and

Spring Data)• Available as open source on https://

github.com/EMLab/emlab• Single run interfaces:

• Web-based• Scriptable via R

• Statistical evaluation of Monte Carlo runs with R

Implementation Details

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Agentspring: class structure

• Domain• Specification of ‘things’ and their properties and possible

relations to other ‘things’.• Role

• Coded behavior, to be ‘acted’ by the agents from specific agent classes

• Repository• For interaction with the database

• Other• Trend: to be able to incorporate various types of trends

in data• Util: helper classes

• Note: properties and methods are inherited

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The short term market

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Short detour: The electricity market – During Peak Load

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Short detour: The electricity market: During Base Load

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The medium term

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EMLabCO2 market in more detail

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EMLab - The carbon market

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The long term

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EMLabInvestment in generation capacity

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EMLabInvestment in generation capacity

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Which parts are typically ABM, which not?

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Example results

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EMLabExample Run – Capacity Development

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EMLabExample Run – Capacity Development

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EMLabExample Run – CO2 Prices

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EMLabExample Run – CO2 Prices

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EMLabExample Run – CO2 Prices

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Thanks for listening

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Literature

1. L. Tesfatsion, Agent-based computational economics: A constructive approach to

economic theory., in Agent-Based Computational Economics, vol. 2 of Handbook of

computational economics, p. 831--880, North-Holland, 2006.

2. W. B. Arthur, Chapter 32 Out-of-Equilibrium Economics and Agent-Based Modeling, in

Agent-Based Computational Economics (L. Tesfatsion and K. Judd, eds.), vol. 2 of

Handbook of Computational Economics, pp. 1551--1564, Elsevier, 2006.

3. J. C. Richstein, E. Chappin, and L. D. de Vries, Impacts of the Introduction of CO2 Price

Floors in a Two-Country Electricity Market Model, IAEE European PhD day at the 12th IAEE

European conference, 2012.

4. A. Chmieliauskas, E. J. L. Chappin, C. B. Davis, I. Nikolic, and G. P. J. Dijkema, New

methods for analysis of systems-of-systems and policy: The power of systems theory,

crowd sourcing and data management, in System of Systems (A. V. Gheorghe, ed.), ch. 5,

pp. 77--98, InTech, March 2012.

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Approximation of the load duration curve by 20 segments

Renewables have a segment specific contribution.

EMLabDemand

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• Uniform price-volume auction• The carbon price is found via an iteration algorithm. It

is adjusted until:• The carbon emissions are close to the cap (+- 5%)• Carbon prize is 0

• The price floor is implemented as a complementary tax• If the market price is below the price floor, generators

pay the price difference between the market and the price floor

EMLabShort-term market

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Investment decisionForecasting

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ForecastingRunning Hour Estimation

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ForecastingCash Flow Estimation

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ForecastingDCF Method