1 challenge the future modelling electricity transitions with an agent-based model jörn c....
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1Challenge the future
Modelling Electricity Transitions with an Agent-Based ModelJörn C. Richstein
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Why ABM for my question?
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Challenges in Transition Modellingof the Electricity System
Electricity System
CO2 RESCong. Mgtm.
Security of Supply
CO2 Emissions
Prices
Generation
Policy
Fuel Prices
Demand
Technologies
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Challenges in Transition Modelling
Electricity System
CO2
RES
Cong. Mgtm.
Security of Supply
CO2 Emissions
Prices
Generation
Policy
Fuel Prices
Demand
Technologies
Electricity System
CO2
RES
Cong. Mgtm.
Security of Supply
CO2 Emissions
Prices
Generation
Policy
Fuel Prices
Demand
Technologies
Path Dependence
t=0 t=1 t=2
Electricity System
CO2
RES
Cong. Mgtm.
Security of Supply
CO2 Emissions
Prices
Generation
Policy
Fuel Prices
Demand
Technologies
Electricity System
CO2
RES
Cong. Mgtm.
Security of Supply
CO2 Emissions
Prices
Generation
Policy
Fuel Prices
Demand
Technologies
Electricity System
CO2
RES
Cong. Mgtm.
Security of Supply
CO2 Emissions
Prices
Generation
Policy
Fuel Prices
Demand
Technologies
Electricity System
CO2
RES
Cong. Mgtm.
Security of Supply
CO2 Emissions
Prices
Generation
Policy
Fuel Prices
Demand
Technologies
Differences in:
• Technology specific revenue structure
• Technology specific learning
• Institutional arrangement
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Challenges in Transition ModellingHeterogeneous Agents & Expectations
Electricity System
CO2 RESCong. Mgtm.
Security of Supply
CO2 Emissions
Prices
Generation
Policy
Fuel Prices
Demand
Technologies
Electricity System
C O2
RES
Cong. Mgtm.
Security of
Supply
CO2 Emissions
Prices
Generation
Policy
Fuel Prices
Demand
Technologies
Electricity System
C O2
RES
Cong. Mgtm.
Security of
Supply
CO2 Emissions
Prices
Generation
Policy
Fuel Prices
Demand
Technologies
Investment decision
Investment decision
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Methodology
• Methodology where actors and environment are modelled from the bottom up by algorithmic description:• Naturally allows for heterogeneous agents• Differing levels of detail possible for technologies and
actors• Data richness an option (e.g. to include locational
specific meteorological data)• Focus on behaviour and emergence of phenomena
• Informational asymmetry and multiple equilibria can be represented (L. Tesfatsion, 2006)
• Since ABM is a generative methodology, out-of-equilibrium processes can be represented (W. B. Arthur, 2006)• Decisive for modelling slowly adjusting infrastructures in
transition
Agent-based Modelling
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EMLab
• Energy producers are the main agents, but other types exist, which incorporate simpler behaviour:• European government & national governments• Banks, commodity suppliers, etc.
• Energy Producers make investments in power plants:• Based on a per-agent merit-order forecast• On a yearly basis
• Energy producers bid into two-country electricity system, connected by market coupling and a common CO2 market
• Market clearing based on stepwise load-duration curve approximation of demand
Electricity Market Laboratory
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How?
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EMLab
• Implemented in Java, build with Maven• Uses AgentSpring (https://
github.com/alfredas/AgentSpring) as an ABM Framework• Split of Roles (Behaviour) and Agents• Uses a graph database for data storage (Neo4j and
Spring Data)• Available as open source on https://
github.com/EMLab/emlab• Single run interfaces:
• Web-based• Scriptable via R
• Statistical evaluation of Monte Carlo runs with R
Implementation Details
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Agentspring: class structure
• Domain• Specification of ‘things’ and their properties and possible
relations to other ‘things’.• Role
• Coded behavior, to be ‘acted’ by the agents from specific agent classes
• Repository• For interaction with the database
• Other• Trend: to be able to incorporate various types of trends
in data• Util: helper classes
• Note: properties and methods are inherited
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The short term market
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Short detour: The electricity market – During Peak Load
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Short detour: The electricity market: During Base Load
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The medium term
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EMLabCO2 market in more detail
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EMLab - The carbon market
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The long term
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EMLabInvestment in generation capacity
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EMLabInvestment in generation capacity
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Which parts are typically ABM, which not?
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Example results
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EMLabExample Run – Capacity Development
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EMLabExample Run – Capacity Development
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EMLabExample Run – CO2 Prices
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EMLabExample Run – CO2 Prices
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EMLabExample Run – CO2 Prices
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Thanks for listening
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Literature
1. L. Tesfatsion, Agent-based computational economics: A constructive approach to
economic theory., in Agent-Based Computational Economics, vol. 2 of Handbook of
computational economics, p. 831--880, North-Holland, 2006.
2. W. B. Arthur, Chapter 32 Out-of-Equilibrium Economics and Agent-Based Modeling, in
Agent-Based Computational Economics (L. Tesfatsion and K. Judd, eds.), vol. 2 of
Handbook of Computational Economics, pp. 1551--1564, Elsevier, 2006.
3. J. C. Richstein, E. Chappin, and L. D. de Vries, Impacts of the Introduction of CO2 Price
Floors in a Two-Country Electricity Market Model, IAEE European PhD day at the 12th IAEE
European conference, 2012.
4. A. Chmieliauskas, E. J. L. Chappin, C. B. Davis, I. Nikolic, and G. P. J. Dijkema, New
methods for analysis of systems-of-systems and policy: The power of systems theory,
crowd sourcing and data management, in System of Systems (A. V. Gheorghe, ed.), ch. 5,
pp. 77--98, InTech, March 2012.
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Approximation of the load duration curve by 20 segments
Renewables have a segment specific contribution.
EMLabDemand
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• Uniform price-volume auction• The carbon price is found via an iteration algorithm. It
is adjusted until:• The carbon emissions are close to the cap (+- 5%)• Carbon prize is 0
• The price floor is implemented as a complementary tax• If the market price is below the price floor, generators
pay the price difference between the market and the price floor
EMLabShort-term market
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Investment decisionForecasting
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ForecastingRunning Hour Estimation
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ForecastingCash Flow Estimation
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ForecastingDCF Method