1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development? liz wilson, agriculture for...

1 billion hungry: what role for agricultural development?

Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact @Ag4Impact

Agriculture for Impact

www.ag4impact.org

The Boss

Nature, 13 August 2009 (S.Torfinn/Panos)

Content

•The context: global challenges

•The role for agricultural development in food security

•Agriculture for Impact

The Perfect Storm?

John Beddington, Chief Scientist, Government Office for Science, speaking at DFID, 12th November 2009

Increased demand 50% by 2030 (IEA)

Energy

Water Increased demand 30% by 2030

(IFPRI)

FoodIncreased demand 50% by 2030

(FAO)

Climate Change

1. Increasing population

2. Increasing levels of urbanisation

3. The rightful goal to alleviate poverty

Gordon Conway’s English cottage loaf

Food price volatility

Food price volatility

A global food crisis

1.02 billion people are hungry

1 in 6 of the world’s population

(FAO, 2009)

Hunger is on the rise

Increased impact on developing countries

World Food Programme hunger map

Sub-Saharan Africa

Over 265 million people are undernourished (26% of global total)

Home to 15 of the 16 countries where the prevalence of hunger exceeds 35%

Why does it matter?

• Food security underpins global security• Economic time bomb• Humanitarian imperative

Food security underpins global security

The Guardian, 9 April 2008: Kena Betancur/EPA

Economic time bomb

Humanitarian imperative

Food Security

“Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”.

(World Food Summit, 1996)

Entitlements

Starvation is the characteristic of some people not having enough food to eat. It is not the of there being not enough food to eat

Amartya Sen,1982

Four dimensions of food security

GDP growth from agriculture benefits the income of the poor 2-4 times more than GDP growth from non-agriculture

Lack of investment in agriculture

1980s:

17% of ODA

30% of World Bank lending

Mid 2000s:

4% of ODA

7% of World Bank lending

EU overseas development assistance to agriculture

ODA from Europe (Thirtle, Piesse and Hearn, 2009 via OECD DAC data)

0

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1967

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Years

2007

$ U

S, m

illio

ns

DAC EU members to Africa DAC EU members to agriculture DAC EU to SSA agriculture

African agriculture

• 80% (33 million farms) less than 2 hectares (smallholders)• 50% of the agricultural labour force is female• Cereal yields, around one ton per hectare, ¼ of those in East

Asia.• Fertilisers are applied at average rates of about 11kg/ ha of

arable land (compared to 112kg/ha in Latin American and the Caribbean)

• Only 4% of cultivated land is irrigated, of which 70% is Madagascar, Nigeria and Sudan. The potential exists to bring 20 million hectares of land under irrigation.

• Many pests, diseases and weeds such as Striga, Black Sigatoka, Banana wilt, Cassava mosaic virus, Maize leaf streak and Maruca beetles can destroy crops.

.

A continent of many different stories

‘Africa is not in crisis but some African countries are’ (Wiggins, 2011)

Delivering change

Looking for win-wins:• Increasing yields sustainably• Enabling access to markets• Political leadership

Sustainable intensification

Quality as well as quantity

Access to markets

Political leadership

Agriculture for Impact

The gap

Grassroots activity

High level rhetoric

Gap?

Opportunities to influence

•CAADP•G8 : UK Presidency in 2013•G20 •EU 2014-2020•GROW Africa / WEF initiative

Our focus

Our activities

How can we feed the world?

•Highly productive•Stable•Resilient•Equitable•Sustainable

What is ‘successful’ scaling up?

Link to private sector?

www.weforum.org

Beyond islands of happiness?

What is scaling up?

Becoming large?

What is scaling up?

Expanding impact?

The Boss

Nature, 13 August 2009 (S.Torfinn/Panos)

www.ag4impact.org

@Ag4Impact

e.wilson@imperial.ac.uk

Liz Wilson, Agriculture for Impact

11th January 2012