amazon in 20 charts—the rise and rise of the e-commerce ... · amazon’s share of internet...

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1 June 1, 2017 Deborah Weinswig, Managing Director, Fung Global Retail & Technology [email protected] US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2017 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. In this report, we present metrics from company filings, consumer surveys and research firms to chart the continued evolution of Amazon. Our top takeaways include: 1) Amazon Web Services is driving growth in Amazon’s operating margins. This business division yielded a 25% operating margin in 2016, up from 19% in 2015. And the division is growing its share of Amazon’s total revenues. 2) Amazon’s third-party marketplace is almost certainly providing further support to margins. Half of all unit sales made through Amazon are now made by third-party sellers. 3) Amazon Prime is shoring up topline growth. Some 42% of US adults now have a Prime membership, and that figure rises to 55% among millennials. Deep Dive: Amazon in 20 Charts— the Rise and Rise of the E-Commerce Giant Deborah Weinswig Managing Director Fung Global Retail & Technology [email protected] US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016

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1

June1,2017

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

Inthisreport,wepresentmetricsfromcompanyfilings,consumersurveysandresearchfirmstochartthecontinuedevolutionofAmazon.Ourtoptakeawaysinclude:

1) AmazonWebServicesisdrivinggrowthinAmazon’soperatingmargins.Thisbusinessdivisionyieldeda25%operatingmarginin2016,upfrom19%in2015.AndthedivisionisgrowingitsshareofAmazon’stotalrevenues.

2) Amazon’sthird-partymarketplaceisalmostcertainlyprovidingfurthersupporttomargins.HalfofallunitsalesmadethroughAmazonarenowmadebythird-partysellers.

3) AmazonPrimeisshoringuptoplinegrowth.Some42%ofUSadultsnowhaveaPrimemembership,andthatfigurerisesto55%amongmillennials.

Deep Dive: Amazon in 20 Charts—

the Rise and Rise of the E-Commerce Giant

Deborah Weinswig

Managing Director

Fung Global Retail & Technology

[email protected]

US: 917.655.6790

HK: 852.6119.1779

CN: 86.186.1420.3016

2

June1,2017

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

TableofContents

Introduction............................................................................................3

CompanyMetrics....................................................................................4

TheAmazonCustomer...........................................................................8

Logistics................................................................................................12

NewMarkets........................................................................................13

KeyTakeaways......................................................................................14

FurtherReadingfromFungGlobalRetail&Technology......................14

AmazonShopperIntelligenceService..................................................15TableofFigures

Figure1.US:AmazonEstimatedGrossMerchandiseVolume(USDBil.)4

Figure2.Global:AmazonTotalRevenues(LeftAxis,USDBil.)andOperatingMargin(RightAxis,%)............................................................4

Figure3.AmazonOperatingMargin,bySegment(LeftAxis,%),andAmazonWebServicesRevenueasShareofTotalRevenue(RightAxis,%)............................................................................................................5

Figure4.Global:AmazonThird-PartyUnitSalesasShareofTotalUnitSales(%)andOrdersFulfilledbyAmazon(FBA)asShareofTotalThird-PartyUnitSales(%).................................................................................5

Figure5.US:RankingofLargestRetailers..............................................6

Figure6.Amazon’sShareofInternetRetailSales,byRegion(%)..........6

Figure7.AmazonRevenueGrowth,byCountry,ExcludingCurrencyEffects(YoY%Change)...........................................................................7

Figure8.EstimatedAnnualSpendingatAmazonperAdult(USDatFixed2016ExchangeRates)...................................................................7

Figure9.USConsumerSurvey:ProportionofSurveyRespondentsWhoHaveanAmazonPrimeMembership,byAgeGroup(%).......................8

Figure10.USConsumerSurvey:ProportionofSurveyRespondentsWhoHaveanAmazonPrimeMembership,byHouseholdIncome(%)..8

Figure11.USConsumerSurvey:RetailersPurchasedfrominthePreceding90Days(%)............................................................................9

Figure12.USConsumerSurvey:ProportionofConsumersWhoShoppedatAmazoninthePreceding90Days,byAgeGroup(%).........9

Figure13.USConsumerSurvey:ProportionofConsumersWhoShoppedatAmazoninthePreceding90Days,byHouseholdIncome(%).........................................................................................................10

Figure14.USConsumerSurvey:ProportionofConsumersWhoBoughtItemsinSelectedCategoriesfromAmazoninthePreceding90Days(LeftAxis,%)andAmazon’sRankingAmongUSRetailersforEachCategory(RightAxis).............................................................................10

Figure15.USConsumerSurvey:ProportionofConsumersWhoBoughtWomenswearfromAmazoninthePast90Days(%)...........................11

Figure16.USConsumerSurvey:ProportionofConsumersWhoBoughtMenswearfromAmazoninthePast90Days(%).................................11

Figure17.AmazonFulfillmentandDataCenters:TotalSpace(Mil.Sq.Ft.).........................................................................................................12

Figure18.US:NumberofAmazonFulfillmentCenters,byState.........12

Figure19.AmazonAustralia:EstimatedTotalMerchandiseSales(LeftAxis,AUDBil.exSalesTax)andEstimatedShareofTotalInternetSales(RightAxis,%).......................................................................................13

Figure20.AmazonIndia:NumberofFulfillmentCenters....................13

3

June1,2017

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

IntroductionFewretailersaretalkedaboutasmuchasAmazon—andnotjustbycommentatorsandanalysts,butalsobyshoppersandjournalists.AtFungGlobalRetail&Technology,wecoverthiscompanyfrequentlyandindepth.

Forthisreport,wehaveminedcompanyfilings,researchdatabases,consumersurveysandpressreports,andwehaveincludedourowncalculationsandestimatesinordertopresent20chartsthatwehopewilldeepenreaders’understandingofAmazon.

Thethemesdiscussedhererangefromforecastsalesandmarginsthrough2022,toaverageper-capitaspendonAmazonbycountry,toAmazon’spopularityinthewomenswearandmenswearcategories.Therearethreesignificantthemesthatweexplore:

• ThestrengtheningofcompanyoperatingmarginsfromthecontributionofAmazonWebServices.

• Thegrowingshareoftotalsalesmadebythird-partysellersonAmazon,whichcanbepresumedtoyieldhighermarginsforAmazonthandirectretailing.

• ThegrowthinAmazonPrimeandthefactthatalmosthalfofUSconsumersnowsaytheyhaveaPrimemembership.

Weprovidelinkstofurtherrelevantreportsfromourglobalteamofanalystsattheendofthisreport.

Source:amazon.com

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June1,2017

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

CompanyMetrics

Figure1.US:AmazonEstimatedGrossMerchandiseVolume(USDBil.)

Third-party salesare thosemadeby sellersonAmazon; first-party salesare thosemadebyAmazonitself.Source:EuromonitorInternational

Webeginwiththebasics:howmuchAmazonsellsinitscoremarketoftheUS.ChartedabovearetheestimatedvaluesofgoodssoldonAmazonintheUS.Amazonsold$98billionworthofgoodsintheUSin2016,accordingtoEuromonitorInternationalestimates.Only$35billionofthoseretailsalesweremadebyAmazonitself,with$63billionmadebythird-partysellersonAmazon’splatforms.

Amazondeclaredtotalworldwiderevenuesof$136billionin2016,andsome$90billionofthatcamefromtheUS.ButtheserevenuestellonlypartofthestorybecausesomanyofthesalestransactedonAmazonaremadebythird-partysellers,forwhichAmazonbooksonlycommission.Moreover,Amazon’sstatedrevenuesincludeitsAmazonWebServicescloud-computingbusiness.

Figure2.Global:AmazonTotalRevenues(LeftAxis,USDBil.)andOperatingMargin(RightAxis,%)

Actualdatathrough2016;consensusestimatesfor2017–2022asofMay15,2017Source:S&PCapitalIQ

Amazongrewtotalworldwiderevenuesby27%in2016.TheconsensusamonganalystsisthatAmazonwillgrowtotalworldwiderevenuesby22%in2017.Consensuscallsforrevenuestogrowatacompoundannualgrowthrate(CAGR)of16.5%thereafterthrough2022,whichwouldbringrevenuesto$356billion.

Theconsensusexpectationisthatoperatingprofitgrowthwillunderpacerevenuegrowththisyear,leadingtoaslightfallbackinmargins.However,after2017,analystsexpectstrongandconsistentoperatingprofitgrowththatwouldtakemarginstoover10%by2022.

Asweshowinthenextchart,thegrowthofAmazonWebServicesisbolsteringmargins.

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Third-PartySales First-PartySales

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June1,2017

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

Figure3.AmazonOperatingMargin,bySegment(LeftAxis,%),andAmazonWebServicesRevenueasShareofTotalRevenue(RightAxis,%)

Source:S&PCapitalIQ/FungGlobalRetail&Technology

Amazon’snewlycementedprofitabilityisbeingdrivenbyAmazonWebServices,whoseoperatingmarginsfarexceedthoseoftheremainderofAmazon’sbusiness(i.e.,thesaleofproducts).In2016,AmazonWebServicesgenerateda25%operatingmargin,thoughthatwasdilutedatthegrouplevelbecauseAmazonWebServicescontributedjust9%oftotalrevenue.Thesegmentisexpectedtocontinuegrowingitsshareoftotalrevenue,soitscontributiontogroupmarginswillalsocontinuetogrow.

LossesinAmazon’sinternationalsegmenthavedeepened,andthecompany’splannedmoveintoAustraliaandinvestmentsinIndiamaketheprospectsofashifttoprofitabilityinthatsegmentremoteinthenearterm.

Figure4.Global:AmazonThird-PartyUnitSalesasShareofTotalUnitSales(%)andOrdersFulfilledbyAmazon(FBA)asShareofTotalThird-PartyUnitSales(%)

UnitsrefertophysicalanddigitalunitssoldonAmazonsitesworldwide.FBAshareofthird-partyunitsalesisdisclosedonlyinthefourthquarterofeachyearandisapproximate(e.g.,itwas“morethan55%”in4Q16).Source:Companyreports

Amazon’sprofitabilityisalmostcertainlybeingsupportedalsobythegreatershareofsalesaccountedforbythird-partysellers—althoughAmazondoesnotbreakoutprofitsbyfirst-partyandthird-partysales.Forthird-partysales,Amazontakesacommission,typicallyaround15%ofthesellingprice,inexchangeforlittlemorethanadvertisingtheproductonitssite.

Moreover,amajorityofthird-partysalesarenowfulfilledbyAmazon,whichmeansthatAmazonstoresanddispatchesinventoryonbehalfofthosesellers,therebygeneratingfurtherincrementalfeesforitself.

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Third-PartyUnitSalesas%ofTotalUnitSales

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DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

Figure5.US:RankingofLargestRetailers

Source:EuromonitorInternational/FungGlobalRetail&Technology

AmazonwasAmerica’sfourth-largestretailer,onlineoroffline,lastyear.Ithassteadilyclimbedthemarketsharerankings,thoughitstayedatnumberfourbetween2015and2016.

In2016,Amazon’stotalestimatedUSsaleswere$98billion,comparedwithtotalrevenuesof$115billionatKroger,$177.5billionatCVSand$308billionatWalmartUS(excludingSam’sClub).

AccordingtoEuromonitor,Amazoncaptured3.4%ofallUSretailsalesin2016.

Figure6.Amazon’sShareofInternetRetailSales,byRegion(%)

Includessalesbythird-partysellersonAmazon.AustralasiaisthesumofAustraliaandNewZealand.Source:EuromonitorInternational

Amazonenjoyeda33%shareofUSInternetretailsalesin2016,includingsalesmadebythird-partysellers.

Inmarketswheretherehasbeenaconsiderableappetiteforonlineshopping—notablytheUSandGermany—Amazon’sshareofonlinesaleshasgrownconsiderably.Thedrivetogetmorethird-partysellersontoAmazon’splatformhashelpedunderpingrowthinthesemarkets.

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June1,2017

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

Figure7.AmazonRevenueGrowth,byCountry,ExcludingCurrencyEffects(YoY%Change)

Source:S&PCapitalIQ/FungGlobalRetail&Technology

TheUScontributedtwo-thirdsofallAmazonrevenuein2016,andthecountryhasbeenthecompany’sfastest-growingstatedregionalsegment.USrevenueswereup28%yearoveryearin2016.

Germanycontributed10%ofAmazonrevenuelastyear,andrevenueinthecountrygrewby20%.TheUKcontributed7%ofrevenue,andrevenueinthecountrygrewatasimilarratetoGermany.

JapanandtheRestoftheWorldsegmenteachcontributed8%ofrevenuein2016.(Totalsdonotsumto100%duetorounding.)

Therevenuegrowthratesaboveareshownintherespectivenationalcurrenciesinordertostripoutcurrencyeffects.

Figure8.EstimatedAnnualSpendingatAmazonperAdult(USDatFixed2016ExchangeRates)

BasedontotalsalesmadethroughAmazon’srespectivenationalwebsites,includingsalesbythird-partysellers.Calculatedbasedonpopulationdataforthose18+.Source:EuromonitorInternational/USCensusBureau/Eurostat/FungGlobalRetail&Technology

Basedonestimatedtotalsales,includingsalesbythird-partysellers,wecalculatethateachUSadultspentanaverageofjustover$412onAmazonin2016.SpendingbyUKadultswasnotfarbehind.

Thespendingdataaboveareshownintermsoffixed2016exchangeratesinordertostripoutcurrencyeffects.

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June1,2017

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

TheAmazonCustomerInthissection,weshowcaseUSconsumersurveydatafromourresearchpartnerProsperInsights&Analytics.

Figure9.USConsumerSurvey:ProportionofSurveyRespondentsWhoHaveanAmazonPrimeMembership,byAgeGroup(%)

SurveysconductedMarch2013toApril2017Base:Between4,912and7,609adultsages18+ineachthree-monthperiodSource:ProsperInsights&Analytics

PrimehasbeenadrivingforceinAmazon’sgrowth.USpenetrationratesofPrimemorethandoubled,to42%,inthefouryearsendedApril2017.Millennials(thosebornbetween1983and1998,byProsper’sdefinition)aremorelikelythanthoseinolderagegroupstohaveaPrimemembership.

Thedatachartedaboveshowtheproportionofsurveyrespondentswhoansweredyeswhenasked,“DoyouhaveanAmazonPrimemembership?”Thewordingissignificant,becauselargerproportionsthanthosechartedarelikelytohaveaccesstoPrimedeliverybenefitsthroughaPrimemembershipheldbysomeoneelseintheirhousehold.

Figure10.USConsumerSurvey:ProportionofSurveyRespondentsWhoHaveanAmazonPrimeMembership,byHouseholdIncome(%)

SurveysconductedMarch2013toApril2017Base:Between4,912and7,609adultsages18+ineachthree-monthperiodSource:ProsperInsights&Analytics

IntheUS,more-affluenthouseholdsaremorelikelytohavePrimememberships.Asthegraphaboveshows,growthofPrimemembershipamongthosewithincomesinthe$35,000–$74,999rangetracksgrowthamongtypicalPrimecustomersveryclosely.

42.3%

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AllAdults18+ Lessthan$35,000$35,000to$74,999 $75,000+

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June1,2017

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

Figure11.USConsumerSurvey:RetailersPurchasedfrominthePreceding90Days(%)

Base:7,008(2016)and7,406(2017)adultsaged18+Source:ProsperInsights&Analytics

Measuredbyshoppernumbers,AmazonisthemostpopularretailerintheUS—evenifitisnotyetnumberonebymarketshare.AnApril2017ProspersurveyofUSadultconsumersfoundthatalmost70%ofthosepolledhadpurchasedfromAmazonintheprevious90-dayperiod.ThiswasaroundfivepercentagepointshigherthantheshareofthatsaidtheyhadpurchasedfromWalmartoverthesameperiod.

Figure12.USConsumerSurvey:ProportionofConsumersWhoShoppedatAmazoninthePreceding90Days,byAgeGroup(%)

SurveysconductedApril1,2013,throughApril1,2017Base:Between4,912and7,733USadultsaged18+ineachperiodSource:ProsperInsights&Analytics

Amazonseesseasonalfluctuationsinshopperparticipationlevels,withastrongpeakovertheholidayperiod.Inthegraphabove,wechartthemedium-termtrendwithalineartrendline,whichshowsasteadyincrease.

TheProspersurveydatarevealtwotrends:

• MillennialshavefirmlyovertakenGenXersasthemostlikelyagegrouptoshopatAmazon.Fully78%ofmillennialshadpurchasedfromAmazoninthe90daysendedApril1,2017.

• Thegapbetweentheagegroupshastendedtowiden.Thisiscountertowhatwewouldcommonlyexpect:wewouldexpecttoseethatgapnarrowasolderagegroupsadopte-commerceandcatchupwithyoungeragegroups.ThissuggeststhatAmazoniscementingitsappealamongyoungeragegroups.

69.9%64.4%

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Amazon Walmart Target Kohl’s BestBuy Macy’s JCPenney

April2017 April2016

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AllAdults18+ MillennialsGenXers BabyBoomersLinear(AllAdults18+)

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DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

Figure13.USConsumerSurvey:ProportionofConsumersWhoShoppedatAmazoninthePreceding90Days,byHouseholdIncome(%)

SurveysconductedApril1,2013,throughApril1,2017Base:Between4,912and7,733USadultsaged18+ineachperiodSource:ProsperInsights&Analytics

Byhouseholdincome,thetrendisconsistent:more-affluentshoppersaremorelikelythantheaverageshoppertoshopatAmazonandless-affluentshoppersarelesslikelyto.

Shopperswhohaveincomesinthe$35,000–$74,999rangetrackthetypicalcustomerverycloselyintermsoftendencytoshopatAmazon,astheydoforPrimemembership(chartedearlier).

Figure14.USConsumerSurvey:ProportionofConsumersWhoBoughtItemsinSelectedCategoriesfromAmazoninthePreceding90Days(LeftAxis,%)andAmazon’sRankingAmongUSRetailersforEachCategory(RightAxis)

SurveysconductedJune2016throughApril2017Base:Between6,791and7,609USadultsaged18+ineachsurveyRankindicatesAmazon’spositionversusotherretailersnamedinthesurveybynumberofshoppers—so,a#1rankingshowsthatAmazonisthetopretailerforthatcategory,asmeasuredbynumberofshoppers.Source:ProsperInsights&Analytics

ThechartaboveshowsboththeproportionofconsumerssurveyedwhohadpurchasedaniteminoneoftheselectedcategoriesfromAmazoninthepreceding90daysandAmazon’srankinginthatcategoryversusotherretailers,basedonshoppernumbers.

Infiveofthesevencategoriesshown,Amazonisnowthenumberoneretailerbynumberofshoppers:onlymenswearandgroceriesseeotherretailerstakingthetopspot.ThelatestmenswearsurveyisfromJune2016,sowecouldseeAmazoncapturethefirstpositioninthatcategorywhenProspercompletesitsJune2017survey.

Shoppernumbersareimpactedbythefrequencyatwhichconsumersbuyitemsindifferentcategories.Electronics,forexample,tendtobepurchasedmorefrequentlythanapparel.

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June1,2017

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

Figure15.USConsumerSurvey:ProportionofConsumersWhoBoughtWomenswearfromAmazoninthePast90Days(%)

Base:4,912–7,406adultsaged18+ineachsurveyperiodSource:ProsperInsights&Analytics

Morethanone-thirdofallUSmillennialssurveyedhadboughtwomenswearfromAmazoninthe90daysendedApril2017,comparedwith21%ofallUSconsumerssurveyed.

AmazonisnowthenumberonedestinationforwomenswearintheUS,basedonshoppernumbers:itnarrowlyovertookKohl’sasthetopretailerforwomenswear,byshoppernumbers,intheApril2017Prospersurvey.

However,thisdoesnotmeanthatAmazonisthebiggestretailerinthecategorybysales,asthatmetricisaffectedbyfrequencyofshoppingandaveragespendaswellasbynumberofshoppers.

Figure16.USConsumerSurvey:ProportionofConsumersWhoBoughtMenswearfromAmazoninthePast90Days(%)

Base:5,606–8,760adultsaged18+ineachsurveyperiodSource:ProsperInsights&Analytics

Prosper’slatestsurveyregardingmenswearisfromJune2016,whenAmazonwasthesecond-most-shoppedretailerintheprevious90-dayperiodamongthosesurveyed.OnlyWalmartwasmorepopularformenswear.WemayfindthatAmazonhasmoveduptobecomethemost-shoppedretailerformenswearintheJune2017survey.

Aswithwomenswear,Amazon’stotalshoppernumbersconcealmuchhighershoppingratesamongmillennials.

• FormoreonAmazonandapparel,seeourreportDeepDive:RetailRevolution—USApparelShiftsin20Charts.

15.5%13.5%

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DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

Logistics

Figure17.AmazonFulfillmentandDataCenters:TotalSpace(Mil.Sq.Ft.)

Spaceisfor“fulfillment,datacentersandother.”Source:Companyreports

Attheendof2016,Amazonoperated160millionsquarefeetofspaceacrossitsfulfillmentcentersanddatacentersworldwide.Some62%ofthisspacewasintheUS,whichaccountedfor66%of2016revenues.

RecentlyopenedUSfulfillmentcentersaretypicallybetween750,000and1millionsquarefeetandemployaround1,000peopleeach.

AccordingtopropertyresearchfirmMWPVLInternational,Amazonoperatesseveraltypesofdistributioncenters:largefulfillmentcenters,midsizeAmazonPantryandAmazonFreshdistributioncenters,midsizeregionalsortationcenters,smallerdeliverystations(forsortingpackagesforshoppersinnearbyareas)andevensmallerPrimeNowhubs(whichstockpopularproductsforrapiddelivery).

Figure18.US:NumberofAmazonFulfillmentCenters,byState

Includesfulfillmentanddistributioncenters,regionalsortationcenters,AmazonPantryandAmazonFreshdistributioncenters,deliverystationsandPrimeNowhubs,operationalorplanned,asofJanuary2017Source:MWPVLInternational/Statista

Amazonoperated214distributionfacilitiesacrosstheUSasofJanuary2017,accordingtoMWPVLandStatista.CaliforniaandTexasarehometothehighestnumberoffulfillmentcenters.

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DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

NewMarkets

Figure19.AmazonAustralia:EstimatedTotalMerchandiseSales(LeftAxis,AUDBil.exSalesTax)andEstimatedShareofTotalInternetSales(RightAxis,%)

Source:FungGlobalRetail&Technology

InApril2017,AmazonconfirmedthatitissettolaunchafullofferinginAustralia—althoughitdidnotdisclosealaunchdate.Assumingitmovesintothemarketin2018,weestimatethatAmazonAustraliacouldgeneratetotalnetmerchandisesalesofapproximatelyA$4billionin2021andA$10billionin2026(equivalenttoUS$3billionandUS$7.5billion,respectively,atthetimeofwriting).Ourfiguresincludesalesbythird-partymarketplacesellersonAmazon,sotheydonotrepresentrevenuesbookeddirectlybyAmazon.

Theseestimatestranslatetoashareofapproximately12.5%ofAustralianInternetsalesin2021and20%in2026,climbingbyanaverageof150basispointsperyear.

• SeealsoourreportDeepDive:Aussies,GetReadyforAmazon!

Figure20.AmazonIndia:NumberofFulfillmentCenters

Source:Companyreports

IndiaisasecondfocusforinvestmentbyAmazonand,above,wechartthegrowthinitsnumberoffulfillmentcentersinthecountry,basedonpressreports.Inadditiontofulfillmentcenters,AmazonIndiaalsooperatesdeliverystations,whichsortdeliveriesforshoppersinnearbyareas.

InApril2017,AmazonIndiaannouncedthatithadopenedsevennewfulfillmentcentersthatwillbeusedexclusivelyforlargeappliancesandfurniture.InMay,thecompanyannouncedthatitwouldopenafurthersevenIndianfulfillmentcentersbytheendofJune,bringingthetotalto41.

Amazon.inoperatespurelyasamarketplacesite,duetorestrictionsonforeigndirectinvestmentinmultibrandretailing(i.e.,thesellingofarangeofthird-partybrands).InAmazon’sfirst-quarter2017results,CEOJeffBezossaid,“Amazon.inisthemostvisitedandthefastest-growingmarketplaceinIndia.”AmazonIndialaunchedPrimeinJuly2016.

• SeealsoourreportDeepDive:IndiaRisingPart2—E-CommerceDisruptorsinIndia.

4.2 5.3 6.4 7.68.8

10.0

12.514.4

16.117.6

18.9 20.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E

Sales OnlineShare

2

20 2124

34

41

Jul14 Sep15 Jun16 Sep16 Apr17 Jun17E

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June1,2017

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

KeyTakeawaysAschartedearlier,analystscurrentlyexpectAmazontogrowworldwiderevenuesby161%,from$136billionin2016to$356billionin2022.Theconsensusamonganalystsisforoperatingmarginstostrengthensteadily,beforereachingdoubledigitsin2022.

Thekeydatapointsfromthisreportthatshowcasethebuildingblocksforthisforecastgrowthare:

1. AmazonWebServicesisbolsteringprofitgrowth.Thisbusinessdivisionyieldeda25%operatingmarginin2016,upfrom19%in2015.AndthedivisionisgrowingitsshareofAmazon’stotalrevenues:AmazonWebServicesaccountedfor9%oftotalrevenuesin2016,upfrom7.4%in2015.

2. Amazon’sthird-partymarketplaceisalmostcertainlyprovidingfurthersupporttomargins(thoughthecompanydoesnotbreakthissegmentout).HalfofallunitsalesmadethroughAmazonarenowmadebythird-partysellers,forwhichAmazonbooksacommissionwithouttakingownershipofinventory.

3. AmazonPrimeisshoringuptoplinegrowth.Some42%ofUSadultsnowhaveaPrimemembershipandthatfigurerisesto55%amongmillennials.Giventhatdeliverybenefitscanbesharedwithinahousehold,asubstantiallyhighershareoftheUSpopulationhasaccesstoPrime.

FurtherReadingfromFungGlobalRetail&TechnologyDeepDive:Aussies,GetReadyforAmazon!

DeepDive:IndiaRisingPart2—E-CommerceDisruptorsinIndia

DeepDive:USConsumerSurvey—AmazonPrimeMembersLoveShoppingOffline,Too

DeepDive:USConsumerSurvey—AmazonYettoCracktheMenswearMarket

DeepDive—USConsumerSurvey:AmazonIsWinningtheBattleintheToySegment

USHealthandBeautyAidsConsumerSurvey:AmazonIsNotOnlyCompetitiveinPrice,butAlsoinCustomerSatisfaction

FootwearPoisedtoGrowat4TimestheRateofApparelThrough2020:DataRevealSpecialtyandOnlineAreBenefiting,withAmazonGainingtheMost

DeepDive:RetailRevolution—USApparelShiftsin20Charts

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June1,2017

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

AmazonShopperIntelligenceServiceThisreportfeaturesselecteddatathatareavailablefromtheAmazonShopperIntelligenceService.ThisservicecombinesFungGlobalRetail&TechnologyanalysisandcommentarywithinputonthousandsofUSshoppersfromProsperInsights&Analytics.Itincludes:

• Over10yearsofsurveydataonAmazonshoppersandleadingretailers’shoppers.

• ProsperShopperPreferenceShare(whichindicateshowAmazonisgrowingasapreferredretailerfor11differentmerchandisecategories,andthereasonswhy).

• Retailpositioningmaps(whichplotretailersandtheircompetitorsbasedonthepercentageoftheirshopperswhoshopthereforparticularreasons).

• Netpromoterscores.

• Keydemographics.

Source:FungGlobalRetail&Technology

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June1,2017

DeborahWeinswig,ManagingDirector,FungGlobalRetail&[email protected]:917.655.6790HK:852.6119.1779CN:86.186.1420.3016Copyright©2017TheFungGroup.Allrightsreserved.

DeborahWeinswig,CPAManagingDirectorFungGlobalRetail&TechnologyNewYork:917.655.6790HongKong:852.6119.1779China:86.186.1420.3016deborahweinswig@fung1937.comJohnMercerSeniorAnalyst

HongKong:8thFloor,LiFungTower888CheungShaWanRoad,KowloonHongKongTel:85223004406London:242-246MaryleboneRoadLondon,NW16JQUnitedKingdomTel:44(0)2076168988NewYork:1359Broadway,9thFloorNewYork,NY10018Tel:6468397017FungGlobalRetailTech.com