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TRANSCRIPT
Developing scenarios: the Italian energy system
Alberto Gelmini
Cagliari, 20 September 2017
Long Term Scenarios for the Italian Electric System
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Scenarios of the Energy System
• A scenario is a self-consistent and repeatable description of one of the possible ways in which the future could evolve
• A scenario is not a prediction, but a description of the effects of a certain set of assumptions
• The model of the energy system is the means to move from the assumptions to the effects
• The model describes the different sectors of the energy system and their relationships
Assumptions Effects
Model
«Reference» and «Policy» scenarios
• The reference scenarios describe the trend of the energy system development considering only the current policies at a certain date
• The policy scenarios describe the energy system evolutions considering additional policies introduced to achieve specific goals
-40% GHG emisssions vs. 1990
27% quota FER vs gross final
consumptios
-27% primary consumption vs.
EU reference 2007 scenario
-43% -30% ETS vs. 2005 non-ETS vs. 2005
-33% Italy: non-ETS vs. 2005
-30% Proposed by the
European Commission
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Reference scenarios
1. «EU Reference 2016» European Commission 2. The national (Italian) reference scenario made in 2016 by «Tavolo
decarbonizzazione» of the presidency of the council [1]
They describe the energy system development with the current policies at Decembre 2014 • Both the scenarios have the same assumptions:
social and economic drivers (population, GDP, Value Added for sector) Fossil fuel price CO2 Emission Allowances Prices
[1] the report will be published on 3 October
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Reference scenario- fuel and CO2 Prices
Exchange rates: 2015=1.12 $/€; 2020=1.16 $/€; 2025=1.2 $/€; 2030=1.2 $/€
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Oil Natural Gas Coal CO2 price
Reference scenarios
Natural gas consumption [Gm3]
2015 EU Ref - 2030 IT Ref - 2030
Power generation 25 25 26
Industrial sector 10 9 12
Residential 21 22 20
Service 8 8 8
Transport 1 5 2
TOTAL 66 70 69
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Reference scenarios: Power system
2016 EU Ref - 2030 IT Ref - 2030
310 342 335
Electricity demand (including losses) [TWh]
2016 EU Ref - 2030 IT Ref - 2030
37 31 31 (57)
Net import - export [TWh]
2015 EU Ref - 2030 IT Ref - 2030
Natural Gas 111 120 145
Coal 43 45 32
Hydroelectric 46 50 50
Solar 23 34 33
Wind 15 33 25
Bioenergy + waste 19 26 16
Geothermal 6 6 7
Gross production [TWh]
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Reference scenarios – CO2 emissions
• The ETS sectors reach and overcome the goal of -43% • non-ETS sectors are away from the target -33%
EU Ref - 2030 IT Ref - 2030 Target 2030
ETS sectors -46% -44% -43%
non-ETS sectors -26% -24% -33%
GHG emission reduction vs 2005
ETS Sectors non-ETS Sectors
Thermoelectrical refinement cement / lime steel / metals paper ceramic glass aviation
Residential tertiary transport agricolture waste other industry
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The Italian reference scenario
• The main gap is to achieve non-ETS emission target for transport and civil sectors.
• For the transports, it is necessary to pursue: Efficiency improvements for motor vehicles Modal shift from private to public transport Elettrification (electric vehicle and rail way)
• Civil sector: • Energy efficiency improvements of the buildings with appropriate restructuring
measures • More efficient heat generator (i.e. heat pumps)
Criticalities & Solutions
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The Italian reference scenario
• The RES share is 21.6% (EU target 27%)
the Power system sector (37.7%) has margins to further increase its contribution, particularly on photovoltaic and wind power
Civil sector: further diffusion of heat pumps can increase thermal RES (24%) Transport: increasing quotas for advanced biofuels and biomethane (12%)
• The electrification of the consumption in the transport and civil sectors transfers emissions from the non-ETS sector to the ETS sector, which in the reference scenario target 2030 it achieves easily the target
Criticalities & Solutions
Policy scenarios
• The «policy» scenario is made in line with the indications of the National Energy Strategy (2017): 50% RES in electricity consumption and phase-out of the coal power plants
versus • The «EUCO30»: is the scenario of the European Commission, which
reaches the 2030 targets EU for GHG reduction and RES, while it reaches a 30% of efficiency(instead of the 27%). The RES share in electricity consumption is 51,9%.
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Policy scenarios
Natural gas consumptions [Gm3]
2015 EUCO30 - 2030 IT Policy - 2030
Power generation 25 21 25
Industry 10
42
10
Residential 21 17
Terziary 8 5
Transport 1 5
TOTAL 66 63 62
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Policy scenarios – Power system
The policy scenario considers some news in the working framework:
Coal phase–out in power generation (before 2030)
Demand response, in particular for small distributed PV plants (instead of “Scambio sul Posto” mechanism).
A new interconnection between Sicily and Tunisia (600 MW)
A complete integration amongst the european power markets
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Policy scenarios
2016 EUCO30 - 2030 IT Policy - 2030
310 319 336
Electricity demand (including losses) [TWh]
2016 EUCO30 - 2030 IT Policy - 2030
37 32 28,5
Net import - export [TWh]
2015 EUCO30 - 2030 IT Policy - 2030
Natural gas and derivates 111 99 141
Coal 43 21 -
Hydroelectric 46 49 49
Solar 23 52 65*
Wind 15 31 35*
Bioenergy and waste 19 33 17
Geotermal 6 6 7
* Overgeneration occurs 14
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Policy scenarios
• ETS sectors overcome the emission target (-43%) • EUCO30 scenario doesn’t reach the non-ETS target (-33%)
EUCO30 – 2030 Vs
EU Ref - 2030
IT Policy – 2030 Vs
IT Ref - 2030
ETS sectors -15 Mt -20 Mt
non-ETS sectors -20 Mt -29 Mt
GHG emission reduction - vs 2005
Impacts on power market at 2030
Average price
PUN Price NO
Price CN
Price CS
Price SU
Price SI
Price SA
€/MWh €/MWh €/MWh €/MWh €/MWh €/MWh €/MWh IT Ref 80 81 79 76 76 76 76 IT Policy 73 77 70 66 64 64 65 delta -7 -4.6 -9 -10.5 -11.5 -12 -10.8
• Relevant congestions between the zones CentroSud → CentroNord → Nord
• In the «policy» scenario the prices are lower due to the RES development and to the CO2 cost (27,5 €/t instead 33,5 €/t)
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Impacts on power market at 2030
• Considerable overgeneration concentrated in the southern zones: in about 250 hours RES production result bigger than the national load
• Introducing in the simulation the constraints for the reserve (secondary and tertiary) the overgeneration increases till 9 TWh and a lack of reserve which amount to 100 GWh
• In order to try to resolve (or mitigate) these problems and to reduce the congestions, some actions have been simulated:
RES contribution to ancillary services market (downward reserves): 50% of the required reserve.
Reinforcement of the transmission grid (+1000 MW capacity transport between CentroSud → CentroNord → Nord)
Progressive introduction of a mix of storage system (Pumping plants and battery)
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Impact on power market at 2030
• New pumping plants till 3,7 GW (identified potential in previous study of RSE) • Till 1250 MW of batteries (2 kWh/kW)
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Bilanci Overgeneration Lack of reserve
Scenario TWh GWh
IT Policy 9.0 105
IT Policy with actions - without SdA[1] 3.6 55
IT Policy with actions + 1.5 GW SdA 2.4 0
IT Policy with actions + 3.0 GW SdA 1.6 0
IT Policy with actions + 5.0 GW SdA 1.3 0
IT Policy with actions + 5.0 GW SdA (in the southern zones) 0.7 0
[1] We indicate with SdA the storage systems
Impact on power market at 2030
• With an average cost for the new pumping plant of 1000-2000 €/kW depending on location (evaluation of RSE on the analysed sites) and 350 €/kWh for the batteries…
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Conclusion
• The european climate - energy policy presupposes the preparation of long term scenarios (2030 and till 2050): reference and policy
The european energy system (EU Reference 2016,”EUCOxx”)
The national energy system (IT Reference, SEN / piano energia-clima)
• These scenarios are made with different models with guarantee the coherence amongst the energy sectors
• It is desirable that the ENTSO-E / ENTSO-G scenarios, in addition to being coordinated, relate to the scenarios of the European energy system by the Commission
• To achieve the target of the European climate energy policy the main challenge for power system is operate with an high RES share (over 50%)
• In order to maintain the safety of the power system in a new working framework (demand response, interconnection with Tunisia, integration of european electricity markets) some actions will be needs: grid reinforcement, new storage plants in southern zones, RES participations to the downward reserve.
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