Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 5-7-WMD

The AQ battle space and playing Field.It was Al-Qaeda’s Religious Justification Of Nuclear (WMD) Terrorism

See also 2014 Part 5 and 5-1, 2 , 4 and 5While we are looking somewhere else, Wednesday, 10 December 2014; how many people picked up on the letter 1 from 120 senior diplomats, politicians and military figures from

across the globe who warned that the international community is being complacent about the risks of a nuclear war?

Islamic religious expert, Sheikh Nasir al-Fahd, who is currently languishing in a Saudi Arabian detention centre for terrorist sympathisers. The edict, or fatwa, tells believers that Muslim fighters can use chemical or biological weapons against the “infidel”. “Looking to the American aggression against the Muslim people and their lands during the past decades, you will conclude that it’s permissible (to attack with weapons of mass destruction) under the principal of reciprocity. Some brothers calculate the number of Muslim casualties and they found it more than 10 millions killed by America, directly and indirectly, the lands which were burnt by their bombs are uncountable,” the fatwa said.

Read the history books well and use them to forecast the future -2. Two months after the 9/11 attacks, Usama bin Ladin claimed to possess a nuclear capability -3. Ayman al-Zawahiri allegedly claimed that al-Qaeda possessed nuclear weapons purchased in Central Asia -4

With the focus on the Daesh stated threat we need to that remember Bin Laden, he obtained a fatwa, or religious order, from an Islamic cleric saying it is ... granting al Qaeda permission to kill 10 million Americans with nuclear weapons! The book "The Day of Islam: The Annihilation of America and the Western World," (Prometheus Books) paints a frightening picture of al-Qaida's nuclear ambitions — one every American must read. Bin Laden and his adherents believe this nuclear cataclysm will usher in "The Day of Islam," the dream of radical Muslims to see all of humankind fall in submission before the throne of Allah as the "Great Satan," America, is brought to her knees. Williams, the author is not surprised at all that bin Laden has planned to launch such nuclear attacks, suggesting his delay is consistent with his past pattern of activities. For sure, it is a plan that has been long in its hatching. Based on the "forgotten testimony" of the FBI's "Confidential Source One," as well as other sources, Williams first presents evidence of bin Laden's purchase of highly enriched uranium in Sudan and nuclear devices from the Chechens and the Russian Mafia. He then offers further information on the workings of Pakistani scientists and technicians from the A.Q. Khan Research Facility to maintain and upgrade al-Qaida's "bespoke nukes" (with explosive

1 http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/575240/20141209/world-leaders-risks-nuclear-weapons-united-states.htm#.VIxmlMJ0zVi2 Outside Publications by CNS Staff Chart: Al-Qa`ida's WMD Activities http://cns.miis.edu/other/sjm_cht.htm

3 https://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/reevaluating-al-qaida%E2%80%99s-weapons-of-mass-destruction-capabilities4 http://www.epsusa.org/publications/newsletter/2005/june2005/alqaeda.pdf

yields in excess of 10 kilotons) for the "American Hiroshima. "The Day of Islam 5 - 6" also offers a full translation of the "fatwa" — the religious order bin laden received in 2003 which "grants al-Qaida permission to kill 10 million Americans by way of nuclear weapons." For those who think that al-Qaida has been disabled, dismembered, or neutralized, the "Day of Islam" will provide a wake up call like never before.

The ISIS MANIFESTO: What Every American Needs To Know About ISIS Plan To Kill ‘Ten Million Americans’ C: again the origins of the plan is from AQSL.. some time ago..By Shoebat Foundation on September 22, 2014 in Featured, General, Highlight An Isis spokesman has posted a call to arms for Muslims around the world to kill American, Canadian and European citizens for their governments’ role in a coalition against ISIS. But what the average American is unaware of are the ISIS more shocking Islamic injunctions that permit Muslims everywhere to carry out killings by ordering them to cause as much as ten million American casualties which we included training videos that circulates the social media for use by the Muslim community under the nose of the FBI which they refuse to do anything about. Shoebat.com has translated more of the horrifying and extremely disturbing content of the Fatwa -7 - used by ISIS written in full by Nasr Al-Fahd, a Saudi theologian calling for the complete annihilation of the United States. Shoebat.com reviewed the 26 page Fatwa  which was never translated for public study by the government showing the true colors of Islam including that such killing has already began. The inception of this Fatwa began when terrorists wrote the scholar requesting a Fatwa on the issue of Weapons of Mass Destruction, Nasr Al-Fahd responds: “Peace, mercy and blessings of God. It is no secret what was published in the media about the intention to hit America with weapons of mass Destruction. So what is the Fatwa ruling for the Mujahideen to use these? Is it permissible at all? Is it the Mother of necessity? … This issue, needs a complete message; and gathering from evidence and scholarly sources to the question regarding The House of War and how to practice Jihad-u-Dafi’ (Repulse Jihad) and the meaning of destruction of crops including reproduction of life (children) religiously, and so on which I will collect what was given by Allah’s will”.

In what Islam calls Repulse Jihad, which is basically using weapons of mass destruction, which was known in Islamic warfare, to put a complete stop and end of the enemy once and for all. ISIS then gives the response: If the infidels cannot be repulsed from the Muslims except by resorting to using such weapons, then it may be used even if it killed and wiped them out completely including decimating their crops and their descendants. I will include the details in my letter I mentioned. Therefore the question is asked and the answer is given and the matter is closed and concluded.)”

2014, A chemical weapons expert with the Islamic State (IS) militant group in Iraq has been killed in a coalition airstrike, the US military has said. Abu Malik's training provided IS with "expertise to pursue a chemical weapons capability", a statement said. He served as a chemical weapons engineer under

5 http://www.richardboyden.com/al-Qaida_Islam_Nuclear_Attack_In_America.htm6 http://www.academia.edu/3552854/The_Next_Terror_Attack_in_America7 http://shoebat.com/2014/09/22/isis-spokesman-supporters-kill-europeans-americans-canadians-way-possible/

former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, before joining al-Qaeda in Iraq and then IS, the US said. Mr Malik was killed in a raid near Mosul on 24 January, according to the US. His death is expected to "degrade and disrupt" IS and weaken their ability to produce and use chemical weapons, the US military said.There have been frequent reports of IS using chlorine gas, but no evidence the group has accumulated a significant chemical weapons cache. WASHINGTON DC—American military officials said on Friday that airstrikes have killed an Islamic State (ISIS) chemical-weapons expert in Iraq.

2015, The US Central Command (CENTCOM8) said in a statement that Abu Malik, an ISIS chemical-weapons engineer was killed by an airstrike on January 24 near Mosul. Abu Malik was said to have worked with the former regime of Saddam Hussein and joined the Al-Qaeda organization in 2005. The CENTCOM said that Abu Malik had worked at Al Muthanna chemical-weapon production facility during Hussein’s regime and that he had planned to attack Mosul with chemical weapons in an Al-Qaeda operation. US military officials believe that ISIS is working on chemical-weapons capabilities.

The “Double Nuclear threat” posed by ISIS

Posted by newsdesk Dirty Bomb or Nuclear suitcase? These are according to experts the options ISIS seeks now for performing huge attacks in the west. Last year, an ISIS militant has claimed that the group is now in possession of a nuclear weapon. A British ISIS member now based in Syria, claimed on social media that the group obtained the uranium from Mosul University and now possesses a “dirty bomb” that it is now considering detonating in a public area. Such a device is aimed at spreading radioactive material in a big area. But in recent days another threat has been studied by intelligence bodies. This threat is in the form of “suitcase nuke” This is the experts say is a very compact and portable nuclear weapon and could have the dimensions of 60 x 40 x 20 centimeters or 24 x 16 x 8 inches. The smallest possible bomb-like object would be a single critical mass of plutonium (or U-233) at maximum density under normal conditions.The warhead of a suitcase nuke or suitcase bomb consists of a tube with two pieces of uranium, which, when rammed together, would cause a blast. Some sort of firing unit and a device that would need to be decoded to cause detonation may be included in the “suitcase.” Another portable weapon is a “backpack” bomb. The Soviet nuclear backpack system was made in the 1960s for use against NATO targets in time of war and consists of three “coffee can-sized” aluminum canisters in a bag. All three must be connected to make a single unit in order to explode. The detonator is about 6 inches long. It has a 3-to-5 kiloton yield, depending on the efficiency of the explosion. It’s kept powered during storage by a battery line connected to the canisters. After the Soviet Union was disassembled, there were reports that some “Suitcase Nukes” were stolen and are offered on the international black market. ISIS, according to the experts, is an organization that will not hesitate to use such a device.

Islamic State seeks to use bubonic plague as a weapon of war; Are We Ready?

By Norm McDonald · Feb. 17, 2015 I wrote a piece about a year and half ago concerning the southern borders and terrorism. At the time, I did not think there would be a large attack in

8 http://rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iraq/31012015

the near future on the U.S. proper because of the “cash cow” syndrome; Hezbollah, al Qaida and others using the U.S. affinity for drugs to fund activities against targets worldwide and in particular Israel; not to mention human and arms smuggling throughout the third world. A large attack would put the U.S. on a war footing and their money could dry up. Their primary target for nearly 70 years has been Israel and the financial needs to keep the Ji'had against the Jews outweighed the need to attack America. I now am convinced I was wrong that these Ji'hadis would reserve their attacks on the U.S. until they decided that it was their time. When I wrote of the border and terrorism, there was not an army of psychopathic serial killers plowing across the Middle East slaughtering people for virtually no reason other than the perverted joy of bloodletting.

There are many ways to pull off a large and seriously damaging attack on the U.S. or one of the other Western nations. Biological, chemical or nuclear would be the ‘big’ three, but after 9/11, we know there are other less conventional ways to kill and maim massive numbers of people. However, these three are where I want to put the focus on for this article.

Biological weapons are very easy to make and spread at a rudimentary level. The problem with these weapons is that the carrier themselves would likely be infected; particularly with a viral agent. A bacterial agent would be more virulent, but probably less effective because it would be more easily stopped with antibiotics. Viral agents are not easily killed by anti-bios but they are generally weaker in the natural

state; the exceptions are obvious. Terror groups such as ISIS would have problems moving and spreading these agents in a significant manner. They could generate a lot of fear and panic, but not a lot of damage. Having said that, if ISIS, the Taliban or another of these large groups trying to control a state manage to do just that, control a state, it would not be long until they could weaponize biologics and a grand scale. Smallpox, weaponized Anthrax, Ebola and the rest seem to be the viruses and bacterium that most nations and people are afraid of seeing. In my opinion, this is not the threat that would make the difference. A virus, either natural based or engineered, introduced into the food supply would have long term overreaching affects possibly for a generation. With today’s technology, designing a virus to attack wheat or another of the U.S. food commodities would not only affect the U.S., but would cause food and economic crashes across the planet. America and Canada produce roughly 35% of the world’s supply of bread commodities. We would be able to eventually stop the virus, but the damage would be

significant. In my reading, I have noted that there are defenses in place for an attack of this sort, but to what extent and how effective, I am not sure.

Chemical weapons are more easily weaponized than biologics, and are very frightening, but in real terms, they would not have the long term effects of the biological weapons. All these are heavier than air and would disperse relatively quickly. Of course, there would be significant injury and loss of life. It would certainly cause economic damage on the scale of 9/11 or an even more significant crisis with panic and mass hysteria. With recent news of more those “non-existent” WMDs than previously thought being found in Iraq, ISIS probably already have their bloody hands on Sarin and Mustard gas warheads. These could easily be smuggled in to the U.S. via the southern border. These warheads are not very large and exploding one with a bit of dynamite or even just breaking one open in public place could hurt a lot of people.

The most frightening scenario would be a nuclear device within our borders. I am firmly convinced there are nuclear devices already in the U.S. and in the hands of those who would see fit to detonate them. I believe there have been small nukes in the U.S. or one of our allies since before 9/11. A small device of a 3 to 5 kiloton would weigh only about 10 lbs. and very easily hidden for years. The Soviets were building these sort of bombs as far back as the 1980s and lost track of many of these during the upheavals of the early 1990s. There is no reason to believe these lost nukes are not in the hands of whomever had enough cash to buy them on the arms black market. And there is also no reason to believe one or more of these are not here in the U.S. If one of these is detonated in an American city, not only will it kill hundreds or even thousands of civilians, it would be a repeat of the financial crisis following the 9/11 attacks only much more serious and long lasting. A ‘homemade’ dirty bomb would have the about same effect as one of these small tactical nukes, but would be less damage in human loss of life, but there would still be disruptive repercussions both in human and economic terms.

This comes to what I believe could be the most serious scenario we could face as a republic under attack; and this would be the same for any western nation. That would be the detonation of a low yield nuke about 20 to 30 miles in the upper atmosphere over a highly populated part of the U.S. This could be done with a 10 to 20 kiloton device attached to an old style Scud type rocket from a small boat a few miles of the coast. Any tramp ship would do fine and the only way this would be detected would be from a tipster which would be unlikely especially with very good planning. An explosion of this sort would not generally hurt anyone but it would generate an EMP (electromagnetic pulse). This would turn off most of the power grid in the area under the nuke. Even a small device would affect a large part of the power grid and nearly all equipment needed for our current way of life. This seems like it would be a simple so-called tough time because there would be no damage and no fallout, but there would be dire consequences. The first affected and most seriously would be those who depend on the grid and the infrastructure for their very lives. All those would depend on medicines to keep them alive such as diabetics, those with epilepsy …and so on. Most of

these would be dead in a couple of weeks, followed by the old and invalid and very young within a month; this would be about 10% the population. There most certainly would be rouge elements driven by desperation and hunger that would do what they figured would be needed to be done for survival. This would take another 10% within 3 to 6 months. The mortality rate for the rest of the survivors would be many times higher than it is now adding another 5% in 6 months or so. In short, 25% of the population of the area affected would not survive to see the next year. Some experts have put that number at up to 90% fatality rates. I have more faith in the American people and their willingness to survive. Our history is replete with survival stories of even large groups of Americans in dire circumstances. Our rugged individualism would be a huge advantage in such a disaster. Depending on the location, this 25% fatality rate could be in the millions of souls. I have read that most experts believe there is a 50/50 chance of a major EMP on the continental U.S. by 2025; i.e.… the next decade. It would take us a generation to recover from this sort of attack and during that time we would be vulnerable to much more terrorism and economic attacks.

Do I believe one or more of these scenarios is possible? Of course, and not only possible, but probable. There are ways to be prepared, but how much is being done by our military and government right now to protect against these types of attacks; I don’t know, I would hope that there would be a lot of work being performed. For me, waiting on the government is simply naive. The best way for me to prepare is to leave my children and grandchildren information and tools to help them survive.

Islamic State research into biological and chemical weapons uncovered on seized laptop to target shopping centres and air-conditioning systems

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi leads Friday prayers in Mosul By Damien McElroy, Foreign Affairs Correspondent29 Aug 2014. ISIL terrorists in Syria and Iraq have carried out research into the production of biological weapons, compiling a manual of how to make a device and sharing a religious edict that sanctions the use of weapons of mass destruction against civilians.

The computer seized from a Tunisian chemistry student contained a 19-page manual to learn how to turn the bubonic plague into a weapon of war. The text boasts that biological and chemical weapons are a highly effective means of targeting enemy populations, according to the Arab television channel al-Aan, which obtained the computer from a Syria rebel group. “The advantages of biological weapons is the low cost and high rate of casualties,” an extract of the closely-typed document shown on the channel said. “There are many methods to spread the biological or chemical agents in a way to impact the biggest number of people. Air, main water supplies, food. The most dangerous is through the air.” The manual explores a variety of means to spread “chemical or biological agent” over a wide area – including rockets and missiles, suicide missions in cars, and contamination of air-conditioning systems. The laptop revelations came as Islamic State issued more recordings of massacres by it forces including the beheading of a captured Kurdish peshmerga soldier. An Islamic State video

entitled "A message in blood to the leaders of the American-Kurdish alliance," showed 15 peshmerga dressed orange jumpsuits that it warned would be killed in retaliation for Kurdish support for US intervention in Iraq. The UN said yesterday that three million people had been made refugees from the conflict in Syria and Iraq. The Syrian civil war has seen as many as seven documented chemical weapons attacks, involving the use of sarin, chlorine and ammonia gas against residential areas. Investigations by human rights groups have found that the Syrian regime had deployed weapons from the country’s stockpile. However, experts have warned that the group of extremist Islamist groups makes a chemical weapons attack by terrorists highly likely. Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a former commander of British nuclear, biological and chemical weapons protection forces, said that the Islamic State has shown interest in using chemical weapons already. That the group had sought a fatwa from an Islamic scholar, which was also on the computer, shows Islamic State had, unlike al-Qaeda, decided that chemical weapons were a legitimate option on the battlefield. “Al-Qaeda thought that biological weapons were beyond the pale but Islamic State don’t have similar quandaries, especially since the Assad regime has used them and people have seen how effective they are,” he said. “It is difficult – but not impossible – to get people to ingest biological spores, while the chemical stuff that Islamic State mentions shows they have the intent to co-opt these weapons.” Islamic State seized control of al-Muthanna, the storage facility that houses Iraq’s stockpile of chemical weapons, in July. Mr Gordon subsequently warned the material at the facility could be used by Islamic State to make an improvised chemical weapon. The laptop shows it is actively seeking ways of making chemical and biological bombs. Al-Aan said the owner of the manual, which it only identified as a Tunisian called Mohammad, had studied physics and chemistry at a university in his homeland until 2011. The documents recommended targeting confined spaces with large gatherings of people, including underground train systems, football stadiums or shopping complexes. A separate file on the laptop contained a letter from an Islamic religious expert, Sheikh Nasir al-Fahd, who is currently languishing in a Saudi Arabian detention centre for terrorist sympathisers. The edict, or fatwa, tells believers that Muslim fighters can use chemical or biological weapons against the “infidel”. “Looking to the American aggression against the Muslim people and their lands during the past decades, you will conclude that it’s permissible (to attack with weapons of mass destruction) under the principal of reciprocity. Some brothers calculate the number of Muslim casualties and they found it more than 10 millions killed by America, directly and indirectly, the lands which were burnt by their bombs are uncountable,” the fatwa said

The very small Islamic State WMD threat

Dina EsfandiaryMatthew Cottee Matthew Cottee is a research analyst with the Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Programme at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.Late last month British Home Secretary Theresa May, who is responsible for immigration and policing under Prime Minister David Cameron, alarmed many citizens when she warned that the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) could “acquire chemical, biological, or even nuclear weapons to attack us.” Joseph Cirincione, president of the global-security-focused Ploughshares Fund, warned that “the risk of a terrorist attack using nuclear or chemical weapons has just gone up.” And a little later Britain’s Sunday Times reported on what it called a “jihadist plot to grab Iran’s nuclear secrets,” saying that based on a captured policy manifesto, ISIS aimed to acquire Iranian nuclear know-how with Russia’s help.With ISIS running amok over such a large swathe of territory, it’s no surprise that these kinds of fears are growing.

But it is important to be realistic about the threat. It remains unlikely that the group will be able to acquire and effectively use chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons.For a start, concerns that terrorists could buy or steal a nuclear device from a country that possesses them are exaggerated and have been comprehensively discredited. Very few countries sponsor terrorism or wish to be seen as doing so, and nuclear forensics would make it relatively straightforward to find the source of any given device. The consequences for any state conducting such business would be severe. Some of the hysteria surrounding ISIS and WMD is based on the theft in July of around 40 kilograms of uranium compounds from Mosul University. But if this was a targeted attempt to acquire nuclear material—rather than part of a broader raid on the university—it suggests that the thieves’ knowledge of nuclear bomb-making lacks sophistication. The stolen material cannot be turned into a viable nuclear device: The uranium was low-grade and would have to be further enriched and then weaponized, requiring obscure raw materials and technologies, a delivery means, and facilities that would take years and a significant sum of money to develop. It took the United States, with its vast resources and advanced knowhow, six years to develop a nuclear device. It took China roughly 10 years and Pakistan more than two decades. Needless to say, even for an established country, developing a nuclear weapon is not simple. 

The most likely threat is a radiological device of some kind. It is relatively simple to develop a so-called “dirty bomb,” in which explosives are combined with a radioactive source like those commonly used in hospitals or extractive industries. But the radioactivity released by a dirty bomb would have only limited health effects, causing more disruption than destruction. If ISIS used its stolen uranium in a dirty bomb, the weapon’s blast would be more deadly than the radiation it released.What about chemical and biological weapons? In June, ISIS seized the Al Muthanna chemical complex in northern Iraq, leading to concerns that the group would acquire the ability to deploy chemical weapons. According to a letter circulated by the Iraqi government at the United Nations, the facility held 2,500 chemical rockets filled with the nerve agent sarin, as well as other chemical remnants and some empty delivery mechanisms. But the chemicals were old and either partially destroyed or degraded. As chemical weapons go, sarin is particularly susceptible to degradation if it is impure. Its shelf life is estimated to be one to two years. While sarin’s degraded remnants are still toxic, they cannot be used as chemical weapons.The Al Muthanna facility also housed mustard gas, which is more stable. In recent days, reports have emerged that ISIS allegedly used mustard gas in an attack against Kurdish officers in Kobane. But the United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM) and the United Nations Monitoring, Verification, and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC) inspectors reported two decades ago that these chemicals had been degraded. More important, the two bunkers ISIS seized had been chosen by UNSCOM for destruction operations because of their solid structures. Both were sealed, which means penetration by ISIS would not only be difficult but would expose them to the chemicals. In short, there is virtually nothing available for ISIS to use at the Al Muthanna complex. Moreover, even if the group were to get access to agents like sarin or mustard gas, deploying them without its own members being contaminated would present a considerable challenge, as they are not trained in chemical weapons use.The use of chlorine, however, is a possibility. Chlorine is a readily available industrial chemical with many peaceful uses. It can be pressurized and cooled to a liquid state so that it can be shipped and stored relatively easily, which means it can be used in improvised devices. When dispersed it spreads quickly and hinders breathing. But it’s significantly less lethal than other chemical agents. While chlorine isn’t useful in battle, it’s an effective weapon of fear.

ISIS appears to have some interest in developing biological weapons, as files contained on a laptop seized in Syria last summer suggest. But the group would need sophisticated labs and technical expertise to develop, manufacture, and deploy such weapons. And as with chemical weapons, the use of biological weapons by untrained troops puts them at risk of contamination, too. While it is possible for ISIS to get its hands on biological toxins and pathogens, it would be very difficult for its soldiers to safely handle and disperse large quantities of the agents to cause mass casualties.In short, ISIS does seem interested in acquiring chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons, but ambitions do not necessarily equate with reality. The complexities of such weapons, combined with the difficulties involved in obtaining and handling the necessary material, make the likelihood of its use remote. Let’s not exaggerate the threat.

Algeria concerned Al Qaida or ISIL could be smuggling uranium

Special to WorldTribune.com CAIRO, 19 Jan. — Algeria plans to establish a network to monitor the flow of nuclear material along its borders. Officials said the government has approved a plan to install equipment to inspect incoming goods for radiation. They said the equipment would be installed at border posts amid concern that Al Qaida or Islamic State of Iraq and Levant could be smuggling nuclear or radioactive material through Algeria to such states as Mali and Libya. “They will be deployed at port and airport platforms for the monitoring of all product and equipment, which may introduce polluted materials and possibly may represent a radioactive source,” Algerian customs chief Mohammed Abdul Bouderbala said. In a briefing on Dec. 22, Bouderbala said border posts would include customs units that specialize in detecting nuclear or radioactive material. He said the units would consist of officers trained in cooperation with Algeria’s Atomic Energy Commission. “The project will result in the purchase of new screening equipment, which will be added to those set up at port and airport checkpoints, requiring qualified personnel for the use of these equipments,” Bouderbala said. Officials said Al Qaida and ISIL were believed to be seeking to acquire nuclear equipment, including uranium. They said Algeria might serve as a waystation for smuggling efforts from Mali to Libya. The project to track nuclear material has included the Algerian Army and police. Officials said the new customs units would significantly enhance border security. “They will be bolstered particularly along the borders

of Mali and Libya to deal with threats,” Bouderbala said.

ISIS and Chemical Weapons

October 24, 2014 Gregory Koblentz

The Washington Post has reported that ISIS used an improvised chemical weapon containing chlorine to attack an Iraqi police patrol in Balad, north of

Baghdad, in September, injuring 11 officers. Chlorine is readily available in Iraq given its widespread use for water treatment.

The good news is that ISIS’s use of chlorine indicates that it has not gained access to more toxic agents located at Muthanna, Iraq’s former chemical weapon production complex, which the group seized in June. That complex contains two bunkers with abandoned and degraded chemical agents and munitions that were sealed shut with concrete by UNSCOM almost

twenty years ago. Breaching the bunkers to obtain the material inside would be extremely hazardous and would not likely yield readily usable agent or munitions given their age and storage conditions. The bad news is that this attack is probably only the beginning. ISIS is the latest incarnation of the group Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) which has had a long-standing interest in chemical weapons. AQI conducted a string of attacks in 2006 and 2007 that combined chlorine gas tanks and improvised explosive devices (IEDs). Due to the poor design of these improvised chemical weapons, most of the casualties were caused by the explosive component of the bomb, not the chlorine. AQI stopped using chlorine-laced IEDs due to their perceived ineffectiveness and a concerted effort by US intelligence and military forces to break up the network that had been constructing the weapons. ISIS, like AQI, has demonstrated a willingness to engage in extreme levels of violence, such as beheading captured fighters and civilians and conducting mass casualty attacks. The use of chlorine or other chemicals by ISIS fits this pattern of escalating violence and violation of norms to maximize the shock value of their actions. Given the large swath of Syrian and Iraqi territory that ISIS now controls, the inability of local forces to launch offensive operations against ISIS, and the unwillingness of the Obama Administration to deploy even small numbers of U.S. soldiers in a combat role in Iraq, ISIS will likely be able to continue carrying out such attacks if they desire. Hopefully they will not learn any lessons from AQI’s previous experiments with this form of chemical terrorism.