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Intel to Rent C de Waart [email protected] In Confidence Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 4-1- TB-36-Mullah Omar-16 Mullah Omar: 'Jihad Strategies and a Future Vision’ a follow-up The leader of the Afghan Taliban for over two decades, Mullah Omar, may finally be dead. Or not. As the fog clears, we may learn that Omar’s death has finally been substantiated, or we may be back to square one, where the Taliban insists that Omar is alive with no outside confirmation of this fact. C: At least to say confusing, the TB denying, the Afghan claiming and the Pakistani apparently providing the intelligence to the Afghan government about his dead. It usually pays to be cautious about rumors of the demise of militant leaders, and that’s doubly true of reclusive Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar, who has previously been reported killed in 2011, 2008 and less prominently several other times. But the Taliban commented Omar is alive, Afghan authorities seem to be taking this week’s death rumors – provided by allegedly Pakistan source more seriously. Various sources claim Taliban leader Mullah Omar dead, as in so many cases it is not known if this is coming from a single source and the press is contributing to circular reporting or there are multiple source. It seems just a single source that feeds the Afghan Intelligence Agency. Keep in mind: Previous reports in 2011 of Omar’s death, which the Taliban rebutted, were started by the Afghan intelligence agency and leaked to national media. However if confirmed than we have more questions than answers, to start with who is leading and releasing formal statements and signing with his name since his reported demines? More importantly did he hand over his title Amir-ul-Momineen and if so to whom? Dead or not who ever lead today the latest AZAM offensive is gaining momentum and the TB claims success, even taking over complete Districts. Mullah Omar dead? Awaiting confirmation from Taliban. A Taliban spokesman told Sky News that Mullah Omar is "still alive and leading the movement", amid reports he is dead. Taliban spokesman Qariy Yousef Ahmadi told Sky News that "according to my information Mullah Omar is still alive and leading the movement. KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) — The Afghan Taliban, who have been fighting to topple the Kabul government for almost 14 years, said on Thursday they are "not aware" of a new round of peace talks due the following day in Pakistan — a statement indicating the group may be pulling out of the negotiations. The Islamic Emirate has handed all agency powers in this regard to its Political Office and they are not aware of any such 1 The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. –Winston Churchill Cees de Waart: Intel to Rent Page 1 of 13 19/07/2022

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Page 1: Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 4-1- TB-36-Mullah Omar-16

Intel to Rent C de Waart [email protected] In Confidence

Al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 4-1- TB-36-Mullah Omar-16

Mullah Omar: 'Jihad Strategies and a Future Vision’ a follow-up The leader of the Afghan Taliban for over two decades, Mullah Omar, may finally be dead. Or not. As the fog clears, we may learn that Omar’s death has finally been substantiated, or we may be back to square one, where the Taliban insists that Omar is alive with no outside confirmation of this fact.C: At least to say confusing, the TB denying, the Afghan claiming and the Pakistani apparently providing the intelligence to the Afghan government about his dead. It usually pays to be cautious about rumors of the demise of militant leaders, and that’s doubly true of reclusive Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar, who has previously been reported killed in 2011, 2008 and less prominently several other times. But the Taliban commented Omar is alive, Afghan authorities seem to be taking this week’s death rumors – provided by allegedly Pakistan source more seriously. Various sources claim Taliban leader Mullah Omar dead, as in so many cases it is not known if this is coming from a single source and the press is contributing to circular reporting or there are multiple source. It seems just a single source that feeds the Afghan Intelligence Agency. Keep in mind: Previous reports in 2011 of Omar’s death, which the Taliban rebutted, were started by the Afghan intelligence agency and leaked to national media. However if confirmed than we have more questions than answers, to start with who is leading and releasing formal statements and signing with his name since his reported demines? More importantly did he hand over his title Amir-ul-Momineen

and if so to whom? Dead or not who ever lead today the latest AZAM offensive is gaining momentum and the TB claims success, even taking over complete Districts.

Mullah Omar dead? Awaiting confirmation from Taliban. A Taliban spokesman told Sky News that Mullah Omar is "still alive and leading the movement", amid reports he is dead. Taliban spokesman Qariy Yousef Ahmadi told Sky News that

"according to my information Mullah Omar is still alive and leading the movement. KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) — The Afghan Taliban, who have been fighting to topple the Kabul

government for almost 14 years, said on Thursday they are "not aware" of a new round of peace talks due the following day in Pakistan — a statement indicating the group may be pulling out of the negotiations. The Islamic Emirate has handed all agency powers in this regard to its Political Office and they are not aware of any such process," the statement said, referring to the talks. Political analyst Ahmad Saeedi said the Taliban's statement could signal a total rejection of the peace process by the movement. "I'm pretty sure there will be no peace deal," he said. The statement made no mention of Mullah Omar or his reported death.\

Even before word of Mullah Mohammad Omar's death, questions about who actually controls the Taliban existed. Though the Taliban's leadership structure is purposely oblique, Akhtar Mohammad Mansour has long been seen as the insurgency's second-in-command. Whatever Omar's current status may be, Mansour has been making more day-to-day decisions and had more non-symbolic power than anyone else in the movement.

More importantly, he has maintained working relations with Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), something that separates him from the "Taliban Five", the former Guantanamo Bay detainees released in a prisoner exchange and currently residing in Doha, Qatar.

Yet far more than al-Qaeda, and perhaps even more than Islamic State, the various competing interests inside the Taliban have remained nominally united due to the belief that Omar is the

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commander of the faithful, a title that traditionally belongs to Islam's caliphs. 

Amrullah Saleh, the former head of Afghanistan’s National Directorate of Security (NDS), the country’s intelligence agency, has years of experience in dealing with the Taliban.

Saleh says that Omar’s disappearance from the scene means nothing. It only reinforces the fact that the so-called supreme leader was actually a mythical figure who was being used by Pakistan to perpetuate violence in Afghanistan.

The leadership struggle centers on two competing commanders: Taliban deputy leader Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansur and Mullah Omar's eldest son, Mullah Mohammad Yuqub. 

According to reports, the 26-year-old Yuqub is said to be ready to take over the reins. Yuqub is said to have the backing of field commanders and the Taliban's rank-and-file. Standing in his way is the powerful Mansur, who is said to have considerable clout among the political wing of the militant group.

Akhtar Mohammad Mansour Shah Mohammed was listed on 25 January 2001 as Minister of Civil Aviation and Transportation of the Taliban regime

Mansour was born and raised in the poppy-rich river valley of Band-e-Timor, the very same area of central Kandahar province where Omar first mobilised what was to become the Taliban and from which a disproportionate number of the Taliban's leadership has traditionally hailed. Like many Afghans, Mansour grew up in Pakistan during the Communist and Mujahideen governments of the 1980s and early 1990s, earning a degree from Darul Uloom Haqqania, a religious seminary outside Peshawar known as "Jihad U"  due to the number of extremists it matriculated over the years. By 1993, Mansour had moved south to the Pakistani province of Balochistan, which borders Kandahar and where a good deal of the Taliban's leadership-in-exile has long resided. Mansour played an early key role in linking Omar to Pakistan's ISI, a connection that sustains the movement to this day. When the Taliban took control of Kandahar in 1994, Mansour was made minister of civil aviation. Residents of his native Kandahar recount stories, perhaps apocryphal, of Mansour transporting opium in Taliban helicopters from the fields of Band-e-Timor to smugglers' dens along Afghanistan's southern border.When the Taliban collapsed in 2001, Mansour fled back to Balochistan after briefly serving as one of Mullah Omar's representatives in last-minute talks with the CIA.While other Taliban leaders have been imprisoned or put under house arrest by Pakistani authorities, Mansour remains a favoured son in large part because he has remained in step with ISI policy. He is also one of the individuals to have benefited from the US surge in 2010-11. As one analyst from Kandahar notes in an interview: "More than anyone else, Mansour has benefited from the leadership vacuum that opened up after the US started to take a lot of the Taliban commanders out . . . Mansour remained safe in Pakistan and he was able to expand his network and powerbase, even though he had never really been a military commander per se." As late as 2012, Mansour was seen as a hardliner among Taliban leaders, opposing any talks with Afghan president Hamid Karzai's government. From about 2013 onward, his position appears to have changed, putting him directly at odds with Abdul Qayyum Zakir, a Taliban military leader from northern Helmand who has for years commanded arguably the largest organised insurgent force inside Afghanistan.Throughout 2014, Mansour and Zakir bickered over the direction of the movement, with Zakir adopting a hard line and eventually being sacked, only to be reinstated. By early 2015, however, the two were reportedly at odds again. Mansour's moderation could be read as a clear indicator that Pakistan's calculus has changed. The fact that the first and second rounds of peace talks will be held in the Pakistani resort town of Murree also plays to Mansour - and Pakistan's - strength, particularly as

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regards the Doha-based leadership.Yet far more than al-Qaeda, and perhaps even more than Islamic State, the various competing interests inside the Taliban have remained nominally united due to the belief that Omar is the commander of the faithful, a title that traditionally belongs to Islam's caliphs. Mansour may have important friends in Pakistan but he lacks this status, and on the eve of negotiations, the Taliban seem closer than ever to splitting wide open.

TEHRAN (FNA 29 Jul )- The Taliban in a statement issued on Wednesday rejected news reports saying that its leader Mullah Omar has died. A Taliban spokesman told Sky News that Mullah Omar is "still alive and leading the movement", amid reports he is dead. The Afghan government has confirmed it is investigating the rumors, which surfaced in media reports in Afghanistan and Pakistan this week. Zafar Hashemi, a deputy spokesman for Afghan president Ashraf Ghani, made the announcement at a news conference in Kabul."We are still in the process of checking those reports, and as soon as we get confirmation or verification, we will inform the Afghan people and the media," he said. The reports said Omar died about two years ago, with some indicating his son was in a position to take over. Sky sources said his son Mullah Yaqoob has admitted his father died some time ago, and a senior Afghan Taliban commander based in neighboring Pakistan has told Reuters Omar had died of natural causes, although he did not specify when. However, Taliban spokesman Qariy Yousef Ahmadi told Sky News that "according to my information Mullah Omar is still alive and leading the movement. Afghan government and intelligence sources said on Wednesday that the reclusive leader died two to three years ago. No further details were released.Pakistani authorities also confirmed that Mullah Mohammad Omar has passed away two years ago but no further details were given regarding circumstances surrounding his death. This comes as a splinter group of the Taliban – Afghanistan Islamic Movement Fidai Mahaz earlier said Mullah Omar was killed by Taliban leaders Mullah Akhtar Muhammad Mansoor and Gull Agha.The group’s spokesman Qari Hamza said Mullah Omar was killed two years ago in the same month of July. Hamza claimed that the group has evidences to prove their claims that Mullah Omar was killed by Mullah Akhtar Muhammad Mansoor and Gull Agha. This comes as the Afghan Intelligence – National Directorate of Security (NDS) - said in November last year that Mullah Omar has possibly passed away amid reports that the group has divided into three different parts.

C: So now what, is Mullah Omar dead? For the sake of looking beyond his dead, Let’s assume he is. Although a senior Afghan intelligence agency official claims and apparently confirms that Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar: Amir-ul-Momineen; Mulla Mohammad Umar Mujahid Died more than two years ago in a hospital in Pakistan of an unknown illness, it still needs to be confirmed from the Taliban side.

Speaking on Wednesday, the deputy spokesman for the Afghan president, Zafar Hashemi, discusses reports that the head of the Taliban, Mullah Omar, has been dead for two years. Hashemi says the government is aware of the reports, but says he cannot confirm or deny them, because they are still under scrutiny. If Omar's death is confirmed, analysts say the Taliban may fall into a struggle for the succession. Omar’s death, if true, would likely weaken the Taliban in the face of a concerted effort by the Islamic State to gain ground in Afghanistan. It would dramatically change the dynamic of peace negotiations too. If he is still alive, the credibility of President Ashraf Ghani’s struggling administration will be significantly damaged.

In 2014, Ayman al-Zawahiri, who had succeeded Bin Laden at the terrorist group’s head three years before, renewed his own pledge of loyalty to Omar. If the leader of the Taliban was indeed dead by then, it would indicate that Zawahiri was either consciously hiding the truth, which seems unlikely,

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was genuinely ignorant, which indicates distance between the two organisations, or that Omar was alive when the statement was released.

Strong claim but no prove: The Afghan government has confirmed that Taliban leader Mullah Mohammad Omar died in Pakistan more than two years ago. The announcement was based on “credible information”, the president’s spokesman said in an emailed statement on Wednesday, without providing any further details on what the information was. “The government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, based on credible information, confirms that Mullah Mohammad Omar, leader of the Taliban died in April 2013 in Pakistan,” the statement said. “The government of Afghanistan believes that grounds for the Afghan peace talks are more paved now than before, and thus calls on all armed opposition groups to seize the opportunity and join the peace process.” The Taliban has yet to confirm or deny the claims, which follow a week of speculation about the the fate of the insurgent leader. A Pakistani intelligence official, speaking to the Guardian, said they had been aware of Omar’s death since January 2014, based on information received from “close aides” of the militant chief and family members. Previous reports in 2011 of Omar’s death, which the Taliban rebutted, were started by the Afghan intelligence agency and leaked to national media.

If confirmed: The news of Omar’s death would come at a tense time for the Taliban, which is facing an insurgent threat of its own from ISIS-affiliated groups in Afghanistan, and has begun peace talks this summer with the Afghan government. Despite the talks, the Taliban is also in the midst of what could be its deadliest ever annual fighting season, which has included a major offensive in southern Helmand province, the seizure of a police base in northern Badakhshan, and numerous attacks on Kabul, including the country’s parliament.The Pakistan-based negotiations with the Afghan government have reportedly split the movement’s leaders, and a prominent Taliban website has denounced the negotiating team as midlevel sellouts. Omar’s presumed support for the talks may have been the biggest thing they had going for them. Mullah Akhtar Mansoor, Omar’s chief deputy who frequently speaks on his behalf, led the Taliban delegation to the talks,  and a statement supporting the process, purportedly by Omar, was posted online on July 15, though it was text only, making it difficult to verify. If the timing in the BBC's story is right, the Afghan government has been negotiating with a dead man. 

Confirmation of the death of Omar, who’s been the Taliban’s most prominent figure since the mid-1990s, could split the movement further. The Afghan government may be ready to sit down with the Taliban, but it’s increasingly unclear what the Taliban is. 

Just a month ago, Chief Talib, Mullah Omar, allegedly came out of hibernation to issue a message on the occasion of the Eid-ul-Fitr holiday following the holy month of Ramadan. I say 'allegedly' because he has not been seen in public for over ten years and it is not even certain whether the message issued by the Taliban is that of Mullah Omar's. But regardless of the authorship, the message contains a new element which is a departure from the man's past stance. He now permits the Taliban to engage in negotiation as part of jihad against the Afghan government and "foreign occupiers." Given the fact that the Taliban sat together with the Afghan government representative in Pakistan publically for the first time in June for talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, this is indicative of a shift in their policy. Hitherto the Taliban had consistently rejected direct negotiations with the Afghan government, considering it a stooge of the United States.

Dead or Alive, Is Mullah Omar Still a Wanted Man? The leader of the Afghan Taliban for over two decades, Mullah Omar, may finally be dead. Or not.By Ankit Panda July 30, 2015 Mullah Omar, the supreme commander, emir, and spiritual leader of the Taliban, is dead—at least that’s what unverified reports out of Afghanistan are saying as of this morning. A spokesperson for Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, Zafar Hashemi, notes that the Afghan

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government is working to verify reports of Omar’s death. “We are aware of the reports of the passing away of Mullah Omar, the Taliban leader,” Hashemi said. “We are still in the process of checking those reports, and as soon as we get confirmation or verification, we will inform the Afghan people and the media.” Meanwhile, a Voice of America report cites a Taliban spokesman as denying reports of Omar’s death, noting that he is “is very much alive.”Making matters less clear, Afghanistan’s intelligence agency, the National Directorate of Security, has said that Omar reportedly died over two years ago in a hospital in Karachi. Somewhat corroborating that timeline, but certainly not cause of death, a spokesperson for a Taliban splinter group, the Afghanistan Islamic Movement, noted that Omar was killed by senior Taliban leaders two years ago, in July 2013.As the fog settles around the recent reports, it’s worth mulling over what Omar’s death would mean for Afghanistan’s broader security situation and the ongoing peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban, which appear to recently have gained some steam with the involvement of China and Pakistan. Omar, who formally holds the title of Amir al-Mu’minin (leader of the faithful), is regarded as a Caliph by the Taliban, and as a source of spiritual guidance. Thus, anything the Taliban does at the strategic level—this excludes individual attacks but includes the broader peace talks with the Afghan government—is said to have received Omar’s imprimatur. Indeed, the recent peace talks between the government and the Taliban that were held for the first time in Islamabad, Pakistan, with the United States and China on the sidelines, were said to have received Omar’s approval.The above is, of course, the conventional wisdom and how most observers in the west continue to regard the internal operations of the Taliban. The reality, however, may be considerably more complex (it almost always is). Consider that the Taliban, for at least a few years now, hasn’t been a monolithic organization, with a clear command structure with Omar at its apex. The Taliban continues to have a “central” leadership nominally. Omar’s deputy, Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour, who effectively replaced Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar as second-in-command, largely oversees the group’s moves, including its willingness to engage in peace talks. Indeed, recent reports that Omar was killed two years ago allege that Mansour was the one to drive the knife in, effectively seizing power in a coup.Should Omar’s death finally be confirmed, the Taliban will likely enter a period of internal turmoil over succession. It could be possible that only the most senior among Taliban leaders know Omar’s true status, which may well include his death in 2013, but the rank-and-file within the organization continue to believe that he is alive and well. Indeed, without a commander for the faithful, Taliban members who oppose the group’s participation in any peace talks and favor the use of violence against the state to reinstate the Afghan emirate may be emboldened. The timing of the latest reports of Omar’s death, just ahead of a second round of fragile peace talks between the Ghani government and the Taliban, may not be a coincidence.As the fog clears, we may learn that Omar’s death has finally been substantiated, or we may be back to square one, where the Taliban insists that Omar is alive with no outside confirmation of this fact. Truth be told, no one has seen or heard from Mullah Omar outside of a small coterie of Taliban leaders and, beyond his symbolic role as a pillar of stability within the Taliban leadership, Omar’s existence has had little effect on the broader security situation in Afghanistan and the country’s fractured reconciliation process for years now. Indeed, the confirmation of his death may be the most he’s mattered in a while.

Afghanistan's Ex-Intelligence Chief Reflects on Mullah Omar's DeathAmrullah Saleh, the former head of Afghanistan’s National Directorate of Security (NDS), discusses Mullah Omar’s death. By Sanjay Kumar July 30, 2015 With the Afghan government confirming the death of Mullah Mohammad Omar, the supreme leader of the Taliban, the suspense over the whereabouts of the fugitive leader is over. It has now become clear that Omar died two years ago, in

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April 2013, and for the last two years, command of the dreaded organization has been in other hands. Omar’s death raises questions about the future of the Taliban, its leadership, and the destiny of the ongoing peace talks in Afghanistan.Amrullah Saleh, the former head of Afghanistan’s National Directorate of Security (NDS), the country’s intelligence agency, has years of experience in dealing with the Taliban. As a chief of the NDS for six years, he interacted with Taliban representatives regularly. Saleh says that Omar’s disappearance from the scene means nothing. It only reinforces the fact that the so-called supreme leader was actually a mythical figure who was being used by Pakistan to perpetuate violence in Afghanistan. To understand the ramifications of Omar’s death, The Diplomat’s Sanjay Kumar spoke to Saleh.The Diplomat: What is your reaction to reports confirming Mullah Omar’s death?Saleh: It does not come out as a surprise for us because the Taliban movement was not evolving on the personality cult of an individual like Mullah Omar, it was evolving on the sheer guidance and support of the Pakistani army. It was Pakistan that informed the Afghan government about the death. So we are not surprised at all. Its not new. Since the news has come from the Pakistani government there is all the more reason to believe in the veracity of the information. He has been under the protection of the Pakistan’s army for years.Does the death of Mullah Omar make a difference for the people of Afghanistan?It does make a difference. It removes one layer of myth, one layer of unknown, one layer of x-factor from the Taliban. It makes it clear that the Taliban is nothing but a network of extremist militant groups who have been trained, guided, and harbored by Pakistan. Omar has always been acting as an operator, not as a strategist. He was a mythical head created by Pakistan. Taking advantage of our historical weaknesses—starting with the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, which gave Pakistan massive access to our lives, our villages, our social fabric—they exploited our weaknesses and created a mythical figure called “Mullah Omar.” What we have been doing is fighting an indirect Pakistani invasion since 1992 in Afghanistan.When I heard about Omar’s death, I laughed—not because it was huge and surprising news—I laughed because it was predictable. I also laughed because Rawalpindi called the Afghan government and wanted Kabul to make the announcement so that it looked like an Afghan effort. We don’t know the circumstances of his death, whether he died of malaria or if he was killed. He was a puppet in the hands of Pakistan, staying in the guest houses provided by Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence.Why did it take so long to announce his death if he died two years ago?Well, it is a very interesting moment. Why did they announce it now? First, we cannot say whether he died two years ago or five years ago. That is an unknown fact. Perhaps the GHQ in Rawalpindi (the Pakistan army’s headquarters) has been working to create one more mythical monster which is acceptable to the west or the Afghan people. Whatever the truth, the announcement of his death is coming from Pakistan, therefore reinforcing the fact that trusting Pakistan is extremely difficult. For years they said, “Bin Laden is not with us”; for years they said, “Mullah Omar is not with us.” Now they say that he is dead. We are just laughing at how ridiculous this Pakistani game has become. It’s a tragedy suffered by us on a daily basis. But yes, layers and unknown layers are just falling apart.What does Omar’s death mean for the peace process? The next round of talks with the Taliban is going to be held soon in Islamabad.You see, the Islamabad talks are Pakistan-controlled and Pakistan-owned. We wanted an Afghan-led, Afghan-owned, and Afghan-controlled talks process. Islamabad is the wrong place to talk about Afghan peace. Pakistan has experience in partnership for conflict and war. It does not have any history of brokering peace with anybody. We are trying to experiment with the wrong people and at the wrong place.How do you see the Taliban movement evolving from here?The Taliban is a not a movement but a terror wave started by Rawalpindi. It will continue for as long as Islamabad wants to sustain it.

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By Frud Bezhan July 29, 2015 The death of Mullah Mohammad Omar, the leader of the Afghan Taliban, could mark a significant blow not only to the militant group's long-standing insurgency, but to its future as a united and potent force.The Afghan government's confirmation that Mullah Omar died in April 2013 in Pakistan comes amid deepening divisions within the Taliban and the growing influence of rival militant groups like the Islamic State (IS) in Afghanistan. Without its reclusive, one-eyed leader, the Taliban will find it difficult to prevent potential recruits from joining IS and other militant groups.Power Struggle Even before news broke of Mullah Omar's death, there was mounting speculation of a power struggle within the Taliban, which has had only one leader since its formation in the early 1990s. The leadership struggle centers on two competing commanders: Taliban deputy leader Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansur and Mullah Omar's eldest son, Mullah Mohammad Yuqub. According to reports, the 26-year-old Yuqub is said to be ready to take over the reins. Yuqub is said to have the backing of field commanders and the Taliban's rank-and-file. Standing in his way is the powerful Mansur, who is said to have considerable clout among the political wing of the militant group. "There is already a nasty power struggle within the Taliban," says Graeme Smith, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group in Kabul. "That power struggle will get more vicious after Omar's death."Recruitment In recent months, a growing number of disaffected Taliban field commanders have called on the leadership to provide proof that Mullah Omar is still alive.Years without any video or audio recordings had led to growing speculation that the shadowy militant leader might be seriously ill, if not dead. The Taliban, in an apparent attempt to dispel speculation that he had died, in April published a biography of Mullah Omar on its official website to commemorate Mullah Omar's apparent 19th year as supreme leader. The bio described Mullah Omar as being actively involved in "jihadi activities."But the absence of proof that Omar was indeed alive apparently led several senior Taliban commanders to defect to the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), an extremist group that is based in northern Afghanistan and earlier this year pledged allegiance to the IS group, as well as to IS itself.Splinter groups have also grown in number and have become emboldened in recent years. In fact, Fidai Mahaz, one of the extremist Taliban splinter groups, announced a week before Kabul's July 29 announcement that Mullah Omar was dead and had been replaced by his deputy. "We've seen a number of defections to the IMU in the north, former TTP [Pakistani Taliban] flying IS flags in the east, and defections of some factions in the south," Smith says. "Different Taliban groups are breaking away from the central Taliban organization. His death is going to fuel the factionalism that we are already seeing." Smith predicts that for this reason the Taliban is unlikely to confirm Mullah Omar's death, and will try to maintain the myth of his existence.Change The Battlefield Mullah Omar's death could have an adverse effect on the Taliban's military campaign. The loss of field commanders and rank-and-file fighters to splinter groups and rival militant groups could deprive the Taliban of troop numbers and leadership on the battlefield."Mullah Omar's death loosens the command and control over the insurgency," Smith says. "It's likely to make field commanders feel more independent. The political behavior of the mid-ranking Taliban military commanders becomes much more important because they're no longer just following orders but thinking for themselves."Despite Mullah Omar's death more than two years ago, the Taliban has waged a fierce offensive against government forces in the country's north, making impressive military advances.Abdul Waheed Wafa, the director of the Afghanistan Center at Kabul University, says that if Mullah Omar is dead, then the Taliban must receive "huge credit" for weathering the potential pitfalls of his death on the group's military campaign. "Three years ago, the Taliban were under more pressure but today it's a different story," he says. "His death will weaken the Taliban movement but it is up to the Afghan government to make use of the divisions in the group."

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Peace Talks Mullah Omar's death comes just days before a second round of peace talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government is scheduled in Pakistan. But his death could delay or even jeopardize the talks aimed at ending the 14-year insurgency. Some observers have suggested that it would weaken the Taliban's bargaining position and give the upper hand to Kabul. But others suggest it would remove a figurehead for the group to rally around and take collective responsibility for the negotiations."It will make the peace process complicated," says the Afghanistan Center's Wafa. "It will be difficult for this process to find a central party to negotiate with."There are deep divisions within the group over a potential political settlement with Kabul. The split within the Taliban between those for and against talks has been worsened by the emergence of a leadership tussle within the group. Mullah Omar's son is believed to be against the talks while rival Mansur is credited with bringing the Taliban to the negotiating table in Pakistan last month. In his last purported message, made on July 15, Mullah Omar recognized the peace talks as "legitimate," saying that the goal of the process was an "end to occupation" by foreign forces.

Statement of Islamic Emirate regarding rumors of peace talks initiation30 Jul Media outlets are circulating reports that peace talks will take place very soon between the Islamic Emirate and the Kabul regime either in the country of China or Pakistan.The Islamic Emirate has handed all agency powers in this regard to its Political Office and they are not aware of any such process. The Islamic Emirate, in accordance with its policy, has established a specific organ responsible for handling all its political affairs. We have repeatedly clarified this matter before and made clear the stance of Islamic Emirate. Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan

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