al-qa‘ida after bin ladin - middle east institute · leader of aqap, abu basir nasir al-wuhayshi,...

Middle East Institute Bulletin • www.mei.edu1

The death of Usama bin Ladin in the beginning of May marked a significant historical moment both in the course of America’s war on terror, and in the future of the al-Qa‘ida network itself and its contin-ued ability to maintain operations in the Middle East and abroad. The impact of his death raises questions about the war in Afghanistan and US-Pakistani rela-tions, and is sure to resonate for some time to come. In this issue of the MEI Bulletin, Dr. Michael Ryan discusses the implications of bin Ladin’s death for the remainder of the al-Qa‘ida syndicate in his ar-ticle, “Al-Qa‘ida After bin Ladin.”

MEI scholars have also been busy responding to on-going uprisings and calls for democracy in the Middle East as well as US policy regarding these events. The “Beyond the Beltway” segment notes MEI scholars’ media and speaking appearances and publications. Our scholars have been extremely active in the wake of the death of bin Ladin and the continued upris-ings of the Arab Spring. Scholars have given their

invaluable insight to news outlets such as CNN, ABC News, Al Jazeera, and NPR. They have been quoted in and contributed articles to Washington Post, The Atlantic, and Foreign Policy Magazine.

Also in this issue of the Bulletin, we introduce two scholars new to MEI — Dr. Daniel Serwer and Dr. Charles Schmitz. Dr. Serwer discusses his long and var-ied career in International Affairs, including work with the US State Department as a Science and Technology Specialist, the United States Institute for Peace as Vice President for Centers of Peacebuilding Innovation,

and most recently Johns Hopkins University, George-town University, and George Washington University as a lecturer, with an expertise in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Sudan. Dr. Schmitz tells us how he started out as a stu-dent of Latin American geography at the University of California at Berkeley and developed into the Yemen specialist that he is today. He also discusses some of his views on the current situation in Yemen and the role of the international community in the Arab Spring.

VOLUME 62 · ISSUE 2 · JUNE 2011

INSIDE

2 Al-Qa‘ida after bin Ladin

5 Meet the Scholars: Daniel Serwer

7 Meet the Scholars: Charles Schmitz

10 The Middle East Journal

11 Beyond the Beltway

14 New Members of the Middle East Institute Team

Middle East Institute1761 N Street, NWWashington, DC 20036tel 202-785-1141fax 202-331-8861www.mei.edu

MEI Focuses on al-Qa‘ida after Usama bin Ladin

[continued on page 2]

US President Barack Obama announcing Usama bin Ladin’s death at the hands of US Navy Seals on May 1, 2011. (Photo: US Federal Government)


EDITORIAL STAFF

EditorsAaron Reese Rachel Wilson

ContributorsMichael AirosusWendy ChamberlinBelle ChevesMichael Collins DunnLeah Gold

MEI Bulletin is published four times a year from Washington, DC.

Al-Qa‘ida after bin LadinWho will lead al-Qa‘ida after bin Ladin’s death is the wrong question. The real question is whether al-Qa‘ida has a future at all. Prominent Western experts assert that its narrative no longer resonates with the vast majority of the popula-tion of the Middle East. Many argue that Tunisia and Egypt demonstrated that people could change their governments without following al-Qa‘ida’s ideology. In fact, al-Qa‘ida’s ideology has never appealed to the majority of the people of the Middle East, despite bin Ladin’s popularity in some quarters. Moreover, bin Ladin has for years played the role of the modern “icon of jihad” rather than the hands-on leader of the hierarchical organization that carried out 9/11. His death will have little operational effect on Yemen, Paki-stan, Afghanistan, Iraq, or North Africa because he did not control these organizations. We should expect all of them to plan some sort of terrorist response. We should not expect them to work together on this effort, which will make their planning harder to detect. Probably the best indi-cators of al-Qa‘ida’s future are the state of al-Qa‘ida’s system and its highest priorities on the eve of bin Ladin’s death.

Evolution

Three to five years before 9/11, al-Qa‘ida’s leadership painstakingly planned not only the attacks of 9/11, but also an entire political-military strategy. After America’s counterattack against al-Qa‘ida and its Taliban hosts in Afghanistan in the months following 9/11, neither Usama bin Ladin nor Ayman al-Zawahiri expected to escape death for long after their flight into Pakistan. Instead of abandoning their global strategy, however, they constructed a new international terrorist system to replace their previous hierarchical organization. The new system was designed to outlive both men and carry on al-Qa‘ida’s jihadist project.

Al-Qa‘ida’s current system includes three interlocking terrorist circles. The first circle is the central core that contains the inspirational leadership and its closest advisors who provide political and ideological guidance (but not command and control). The second circle includes what one strategist referred to as “open fronts,” which Westerners sometimes refer to as affiliates or franchises. Al-Qa‘ida’s concept of open fronts includes classic guerrilla warfare, but also recruiting, establishing, and training cells of the third circle. We sometimes refer to the third circle as “homegrown” or “sleeper cells.”1 Such clandestine cells and individuals so far have rarely been successful in the United States, but real threats are often disrupted. When third circle attacks are successful, however, as in the Madrid train bombing in 2004, the London suicide bombings in 2005, or even the Nidal Hasan murders at Fort Hood in 2009, the results are dire.

Priorities

The Arabian Peninsula has been one of bin Ladin’s highest priorities. He had a personal plan for jihad in Yemen since 1. See the translation of Abu Mus’ab al-Suri’s “The Relationship between Open Front Jihad and Individual Terrorism” in Brynjar Lia, Architect of Global Jihad: The Life of Al Qaeda Strategist Abu Mus’ab Al-Suri (New York: Columbia University Press, 2009), pp. 436–437; al-Suri was writing this account as a recommendation, but it appears to resemble generally how groups in Yemen and Pakistan relate to would-be terrorists in the United States.

In an effort to keep pace with the swift-changing nature of the Arab Spring, we have hosted several events dedicated to analyzing developments in countries such as Egypt, Libya, and Syria, in addition to other timely and relevant top-ics of discussion. Most recently, we hosted “Inside Pakistan’s ISI” with Karen DeYoung, National Security Correspon-dent for the Washington Post, Arturo Muñoz, Senior Political Scientist for RAND Corporation, and Shuja Nawaz, Director of the South Asia Center for the Atlantic Council. The three evaluated the current state of the Inter-Services Intelligence and the possibility that the organization and its agents could be acting as rogue operatives supporting various militant groups in Pakistan, rather than as a state-controlled force. They also examined India’s security di-lemma vis à vis the ISI, and the interest that the ISI has in maintaining some degree of instability in Afghanistan.

As events in the region to unfold, MEI continues to offer thorough and acute analysis. MEI’s mission to in-crease awareness between the Middle East and the US is vital, now more than ever. We hope you will help us fulfill our mission by becoming a member today.

— Wendy Chamberlin

Usama bin Ladin in a photo from a video taken from the compound where he was killed. (Photo: US Federal Government)


at least 1989, but was hindered from realizing his full concept because local jihadists did not cooperate. From 2000 until 2006, the Arabian Peninsula was the locus of successive al-Qa‘ida terrorist campaigns aimed not only at the gov-ernments of the Peninsula but also at European countries and the United States. These campaigns were, for the most part, spectacular failures after the 2000 bombing of the USS Cole and a similar attack in 2002 on the French-flagged oil tanker Limburg in the Gulf of Aden. Al-Qa‘ida did not accept failure, however. By 2004 with strong American backing, President Salih had virtually destroyed al-Qa‘ida in Yemen; by 2006, Saudi Arabia had defeated the al-Qa‘ida terrorist campaign inside the Kingdom; but by 2009, al-Qa‘ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) was reestablished in Yemen to execute attacks aimed at Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and the West. We should expect more of the same.

There is ample evidence that al-Qa‘ida’s post-9/11 political-military strategy is still intact. For example, in March 2010, the leader of AQAP, Abu Basir Nasir al-Wuhayshi, endorsed the publication of a book with the title Why Did I Choose al-Qaeda?2 This book argued that al-Qa‘ida is still following the strategy described in Abu Bakr Naji’s book Idarat al-Tawahhush [The Administration of Savagery]. This is the same book confiscated by Saudi officials in 2008 when they arrested approximately 300 individuals accused of being al-Qa‘ida members and plotting terrorist attacks against Saudi Arabia and its petroleum indus-try. According to Naji, al-Qa‘ida’s global priorities include the Arabian Peninsula and Pakistan but not Afghanistan, Iraq, or Egypt. (Iraq was an opportunity for recruitment after American forces invaded, but bin Ladin’s involvement was mainly rhetori-cal.)

AQAP’s book also boasts that al-Qa‘ida’s “war policy” includes goals that it has been pursuing throughout the post-9/11 period. These include reducing fear of and respect for the United States; building confidence “in Muslim souls” by “revealing [America’s] deceptive media halo to be a force that does not compel; and forcing America to change its ‘war on Islam’ [sic] from using proxies to prosecuting the war directly.” Pakistan, with its large Muslim population and nuclear weapons, continues to be one of al-Qa‘ida’s highest priorities. At this point, bin Ladin’s ideology is so embedded in various indigenous jihadist groups that they do not need al-Qa‘ida to plan or carry out operations. In addition, because al-Qa‘ida’s ideology involves a de-velopment of the basic concepts of the renowned Pakistani Islamist, Abu’ A’la al-Mawdudi, one could say that it belongs as much to Pakistani extremists as it does to Arab al-Qa‘ida.

Conclusion

Whoever assumes the leadership mantle, we should expect al-Qa‘ida to continue using its transnational system to take advantage of opportunities to advance its objectives. The best weapon America has against al-Qa‘ida’s system is the continuity of its own counterterrorism policy and deliberate foreign policy upon which allies can rely. The United States must be seen as willing to destroy al-Qa‘ida training camps and kill or capture its leaders. At the same time, Western economic assistance, trade, and programs aimed at strengthening civil society throughout the Middle East are at least as important as security operations. The United States must also continue the increasingly challenging task of working on areas of mutual interest with the governments of Yemen and Pakistan.

Planned withdrawal of American combat forces from Iraq and Afghanistan will not help al-Qa‘ida. On the contrary, it will hurt its narrative and recruitment by making it more difficult to claim that the US is “at war with Islam.” In addition, reducing combat forces will also dramatically reduce US expenditures, which works directly against one of al-Qa‘ida’s key goals of bleeding the American economy. The greatest threat to al-Qa‘ida, however, remains a confident United States standing for its traditional values of support for human rights, economic freedom, and respect for diverse communities.

— Michael Ryan is a Scholar at the Middle East Institute and a former Vice President at both the Millenium Challenge Corporation and the Middle East Institute

This article is adapted from material previously published by The Jamestown Foundation.

2. Accessed May 6, 2011 at http://www.archive.org/details/WhyIChooseALQaeda (in Arabic and attributed to Muhammad ‘Amir al-Awlaqi). AQAP’s Melahim Media also produced promotional videos both for the author and his book, for example: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hNXFXWVcVrw which contains footage of the author purportedly one day before his death in Shabwah.

The USS Cole after it was bombed by al-Qa‘ida operatives on October 12, 2000. (Photo: US Federal Government)


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Meet the Scholars: Daniel Serwer

Daniel Serwer is a Professional Lecturer at Georgetown University, George Washington University, and Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. Dr. Serwer previously worked at the United States In-stitute of Peace, most recently as the Vice President for the Centers od Peace-building and Innovation. He also served former a number of years with the US Department of State, including postings as the Special Envoy for the Bos-nian Federation and the Director for European and Canadian Analysis with the Bureau of Intelligence and Research.

Tell me a bit about your early career. What led you to government ser-vice? How did you become involved with peace-building initiatives and mediation? It was all the girl’s fault. I first worked in international affairs at the United Nations, hired by the father of someone I dated in college. I had a scientific background through a Master’s degree in Physical Chemistry. He needed someone to deal with environmental issues — this was 1970 and we were really just beginning to think about such things. After I finished my doctorate at Princeton, the State Department hired me as a science and tech-nology specialist, dealing mainly with nuclear and missile proliferation issues in Rome and Brasilia. I later worked energy issues and became Economic Minister and Deputy Chief of Mission at the US Embassy in Rome. I did not really get involved in peace-building and mediation until the Bosnian war, when I landed in Sarajevo in November 1994 in a plane hit by small arms fire during the landing. It’s been peace-building all the time since then.

You are currently teaching at George Washington University, Georgetown University, and Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies. After careers devoted to both government service and peace-building and conflict resolution initiatives, why did you turn to teaching? It was always my intention to teach, and over the years I have enjoyed lecturing in many different settings. It was about time that I taught my own courses. I just got my student evaluations from last term — both gratify-ing and humbling. The classroom is an intellectual feast and challenge.

On your blog (www.peacefare.net), you have written that the US must remember that “Afghanistan mat-ters” and the country’s fate and success lies in what the US leaves behind. What is your vision of the Af-ghanistan that the United States needs to leave behind and how might the US reach this goal? I said in the Washington Post last July that the [US] President [Barack Obama] should specify an end state and suggested: “an Afghanistan that provides no safe haven to terrorists, ensures equal rights to all its citizens and maintains its sovereignty with international help but without foreign troops on its territory.” He seems inclined, however, to stick with only the “no safe havens” part. I think that is hard to achieve without the other pieces. Afghan President Hamid Karzai has said that Afghans are starting to view NATO as an occupying force, warning that NATO air strikes could lead to a national uprising in Afghanistan. In your opinion, is there potential for a large movement within the country? If so, what might this look like and what implications would this have for US-Pakistani relations? I guess even Karzai is inspired by the Arab Spring, but he should remember that the protests are against local leaders, not against the US. That said, he is an elected president who clearly is at the limit of what he can tolerate, even if you discount some of what he says as political cover. Of course, there already is a movement against the US presence — we call it the Taliban. Fortunately, most Afghans don’t like it any better than they like our presence. The way to square this circle is with more capable Afghan forces doing most of the heavy lifting. US-Pakistani relations raise their own complex set of issues, on which I confess I am a neophyte and hesitate to comment. I would just note that whatever we think we’ve been doing does not seem to be improving the situation.

Daniel Serwer


With regard to the situation in Iraq, you wrote on your blog that “the US, UN and Iraqis need to get their heads together sooner rather than later on how to handle Arab-Kurdish disputes, especially as resistance to a continuing US troop presence after the end of this year seems to be strengthening.” What are the core concerns in this debate? Kurds want to extend the territory of Kurdistan to include areas that they claim are historically Kurdish (espe-cially Kirkuk Governorate), guarantee themselves a substantial percentage of Iraq’s national oil revenue, and govern themselves with minimal reference to Baghdad, especially in exploration for and production of new oil discoveries. Arabs want to ensure that Iraq is not divided, either de facto or de jure, and that oil exploration and production is planned and operated in accordance with a national framework. The Americans don’t want Arabs and Kurds to come to blows, something that seems less likely as they are making a lot more money by cooperating than they would otherwise. I think the UN can help them find a way of untying these knots.

In a March Washington Post article, you discussed the pos-sibility of the United States earning returns on the “enormous investment” in Iraq if it becomes a “reliable, high-volume supplier of oil to world markets” and “can defend itself with only a modicum of U.S. support,” while also holding “relative-ly free and fair elections that put in power people who reflect the wide diversity of the population and feel real pressure to deliver services efficiently.” What can the US and Iraq do to ensure that Iraq moves toward this ideal state of affairs? I’ve just finished a short brief on this subject. Here are its conclu-sions: The following US assistance would reduce a number of risks to Iraqi democracy and help to create the kind of pluralistic society that will generate its own stronger opposition and state institutions:

support to the Parliament, constitutional court, elections commission, and related civil society or-•ganizations, especially for women; continued military education and training; •UN assistance in resolution of Arab/Kurdish issues; •encouragement to export oil and gas to the north and west; •assistance for protection of religious and other minorities; •cooperation in designing a plan to distribute some oil revenue to citizens. •

In spite of reports of a tentative agreement between northern and southern Sudan, many people are skep-tical about the efficacy of negotiations and the implementation of the established terms, especially with the recent seizure of Abyei. Do you believe that peaceful solutions are possible in this situation, or do you think we will see continued violence in the area, especially as we approach the proposed July 9 date for southern independence? At this point I think the South is so concerned with maintaining peace and stability in advance of indepen-dence that it will do its best to avoid further problems up to and even past July 9. Diplomatic recognition will be much easier if independence does not lead to war. Of course the North may not cooperate fully, but I do expect restraint from the South. That said, the seizure of Abyei is likely to cause serious problems in the future, if there is no negotiated solution.

Given your use of blogs, Twitter, and other social media outlets, what are your thoughts on the signifi-cance of Internet activism in the “Arab Spring”? Do you believe that social media sites can and/or will play a part in state-building projects and the “end game” in these national movements, or are they simply useful for the initial stages?

Social media seem a lot better suited to organizing a demonstration than establishing a supreme court. That said, I don’t think we’ve reached the limit of human ingenuity, and social media may well prove useful in over-coming the obvious democracy gap in many post-conflict stabilization and reconstruction operations. But we should also note that media only enable you to do things you want to do — the movements generating change use the media, not, I hope, the other way around.

An oil field in Kirkuk, Iraq. (Photo: Flickr user iAMiAN_)


Meet the Scholars: Charles Schmitz

Charles Schmitz is the President of the American Institute of Yemeni Studies and a Professor in the Department of Geography at Towson University. He also currently serves on the Board of Directors at the Council of American Overseas Research Centers. After receiving a BS in Conservation and Resource Studies, you then completed an MA and PhD in Geography. What got you interested in this particular area of study? Many of my undergraduate courses were in the Geography Department, and I liked geography and the professors in the [University of California at] Berkeley department. I also liked the interdisciplinary approach of geography. In geog-raphy, we can draw from any number of disciplines in the social sciences such as political science, economics, anthropology, and sociology. Geographers also study the physical world, so we are well positioned to study environmental and natural resource issues in which physical and social factors intertwine. And I like geography’s focus on the spatial dimension of issues, something that most other disciplines rarely address. Social relationships are built in particular places and society uses space, distance, and proximity in the construction of social institutions and social identities. Very interesting to me!

You have focused both on Egypt and Yemen, and are currently serving as the President of the American Institute of Yemeni Studies. How did you develop this interest in the region and what is its importance in the field of geography? As an undergraduate, I was a Latin Americanist. Before entering graduate school I spent some time in Israel where I developed an interest in the Middle East. In graduate school my work focused on rural development policy and I used the Middle East as case material. At Berkeley, I met Professor Kiren Chaudhry who had writ-ten about Yemen and Saudi Arabia and she urged me to do my doctoral fieldwork in southern Yemen, just after unification with the north. I remain fascinated with Yemen to this day. In your most recent MEI Policy Insight, “Who’s Really in the Yemeni Opposition, Anyway?” you discuss how in President ‘Ali ‘Abdullah Salih’s effort to maintain power, his strategy of divide and conquer has backfired. In light of more recent developments in Yemen, would you change any of your conclusions? No, I don’t think so. His attack on the al-Ahmar compound in Hasaba in his last days in Yemen was probably his last attempt at this strategy. He was willing to wreak war on Sana‘a in order to preserve his rule. His divide

Charles Schmitz

On your blog, you indicated that with regard to the current situations in Syria, Yemen, and Libya, it should be US policy “to listen to the locals, and follow their lead if we can figure out what it is” and sup-port their efforts. How can the US support these protestors in their effort to promote democratic ideals, and not make the mistake of settling for a government for government’s sake and the perhaps false prom-ise of stability? It’s difficult. Embassies are not places that interface easily with 18-year-old protestors. And when they do, they may get in hot water with the host government. Many years ago in Italy, I wanted to invite a bright young activist to a meeting on alternative energy technolo-gies. A name check turned up indications that he was a member of what the Italian government regarded as an extreme-left, vaguely anarchist political group. I somehow managed to convince the Embassy that it would be okay. He went on to study and work in the US and is today the distinguished head of an important industry association in Italy. Those are the risks you need to take if you really believe in democratic ideals. I like the model we’ve developed: NGOs out hunting for talent and providing training, visits to the US, projects run by local people, without too much “Chief of Mission” control. You may not, however, find a lot of State Department officials who agree with me.

— Interview by Leah Gold


and conquer strategy has left the country in a political ruin that is going to take many years to repair.

Do you believe that the opposition in Yemen will be able to maintain enough strength to topple President Salih’s regime? What are the implications for Salih and the region if the op-position succeeds or fails? If opposition success is realized, is a peaceful transition still possible? The question now is whether the various factions within Yemen can reach an agreement to put together a transitional government that can hold legitimate elections. At the moment the answer is no, but Salih’s relatives in the military and security are weakened by Salih’s absence, and there are no other groups or personalities that can command leadership of the whole country. None of the parties are dominant and they all need to build coalitions and alliances in order to retain influence. The best scenario is that the broadest co-alition possible can institutionalize a system of rule that allows all of Yemen’s very diverse political groups some role in governance. Yemenis have long spoken of the importance of local rule and now could be the time for Yemenis to work out a system of local rule that also allows the benefits of a coherent national government. The worst scenario is that the various groups simply resort to fighting and Yemen becomes a humanitarian crisis.

Do you think that US-Yemeni relations will influence the result of the uprising in Yemen? If so, how? Maybe. Yemenis often say that the United States focuses exclusively on security issues and does not care about Yemeni aspirations for political and economic development. At the moment, US Ambassador Feierstein is running around Sana‘a trying to broker a deal for a transitional government to oversee elections. If he is suc-cessful and Yemenis are happy with the transitional government, then the US might improve its very poor image in Yemen. Yemenis will see that US interests in a stable Yemen can coincide with Yemeni aspirations for democracy and economic development.

In the context of Yemen’s participation in the so-called “Arab Spring,” what is its geographic importance as it relates to the Middle East region in particular? The significance of Yemen’s geography is its location along a strategic transportation route and its long border with the largest exporter of oil in the world. The industrial world is keen to secure the flow of oil and thus Ye-men is of intense geopolitical interest. On the Arabian Peninsula, Yemen’s relationship with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States is like the relationship between Mexico and the United States: Yemen is poor and Saudi Arabia is wealthy and concerned about Yemen’s problems pouring into the Kingdom. Yemen is also the only republic on the Arabia Peninsula, and this creates an uneasy relationship with its neighbors who are wealthy emirates and kingdoms. Yemen very much needs some regional economic integration with their rich neighbors, but the neighbors are wary of Yemen’s political liberalism.

Your focus on Yemen involves a deep understanding of counter-terror policy. What are your thoughts regard-ing recent allegations that al-Qa‘ida is operating in southern Yemen and Salih’s reactions to these claims? Al-Qa‘ida does have operations in Yemen, obviously. Al-Qa‘ida is seeking in Yemen a stable base from which to launch attacks on Saudi Arabia and the United States, if not other countries as well, and they have shown that they can do it, though fortunately without much success so far. Al-Qa‘ida is a very small group of people that has little appeal or relevance to Yemenis. Yemenis are focused on their own political and economic prob-lems and al-Qa‘ida has nothing for them. Most Yemenis believe that al-Qa‘ida in Yemen is a creation of the government in order to gain backing from the United States and Europe. In May of this year a group of fighters took over a town called Lawdar in Abyan and later they moved on to take Ja’ar and Zinjibar, the provincial capital of Abyan. It is not clear who these fighters are. They do say to the press that they are al-Qa‘ida, but this is not clear. The majority are probably mujahidin of various strips with no relationship to terror or al-Qa‘ida’s organization. It is also not clear why al-Qa‘ida would even want to attempt to control territory; it doesn’t make sense from their perspective. Given their small size, controlling territory only invites their destruction in the Yemeni case. There are reports that Yemeni security abandoned their posts, allowing these fighters to take control without

Protests in Sana‘a in March 2011. (Photo: Flickr user Sallam)


much of a fight. This led to suspicions that President Salih had ordered his forces to withdraw in order to scare the Americans and Europeans into thinking that al-Qa‘ida is creating a safe haven in Abyan and that the US should support the President. This is not an improbable scenario, but the units may have withdrawn because the President wanted them in Sana‘a for his own purposes, rather than intending to allow these fighters to advance. At the moment, local residents have abandoned the town and are in dire need of assistance in neighboring Lahj and Aden. Yemeni security is continuing to fight to retake these towns, and given the relative military balance, the Yemeni military will prevail. Al-Qa‘ida in Yemen will remain a problem for the United States, though. An important aspect of dealing with the threat is to gain popular Yemeni support against groups that want to target the United States. Yemenis are universally against terrorism, but they don’t see a real threat from al-Qa‘ida, except for the Yemeni security forces and officials that have been battling al-Qa‘ida in the south for some time. In my view, the best way to deal with the threat is good intelligence, which comes from local support. A group working in Sana‘a in an apartment could put together a bomb operation without any need for their own territory. But if neighbors turn them in, they cannot operate. Most of the 9/11 attack was put together in Hamburg, not Afghanistan. This is why the Ambassador’s work to create an interim government is important. If Yemenis feel that the Ameri-cans support Yemeni aspirations for democracy and human rights, then they are more willing to listen to US concerns about al-Qa‘ida targeting the US from Yemen.

You also have a demonstrated interest in international governance. Given that the international commu-nity has and will most likely continue to play a significant role in many of the key countries affected by the Arab Spring, what are your thoughts on the role of the international community in Yemeni affairs? The United States, Europe, and Saudi Arabia will have a large role in Yemen’s future supporting the develop-ment of a sustainable economy and secure state. Yemenis welcome international support as long as it is a partnership between Yemenis and foreigners. It is important that international actors in Yemen behave in ways consistent with international law and ideals of transparency and participation in governance. In international relations, there is often one standard for powerful states and another standard for weak and poor states. This cannot be the case in Yemen if international actors want to support Yemeni efforts to build institutions and live by the rule of law.

— Interview by Belle Cheves

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The Middle East Journal

The Summer 2011 issue of The Middle East Journal covers a wide range of topics, from narcotics trafficking to the dabkeh. The articles are:

Ryan Gingeras, Naval Postgraduate School, “In the Hunt for the ‘Sultans of Smack: ’ Dope, Gang •sters, and the Construction of the Turkish Deep State.” An examination of the history of Turkish drugs and the involvement of factions within the Turkish “deep state”.

Two articles deal with issues related to modern Lebanon:

Sami Baroudi and Imad Salamey, Lebanese American University, “US-French Collaboration on •Lebanon: How Syria’s Role in Lebanon and the Middle East Contributed to a US-French Conver-gence.” How the events of recent years in Lebanon led to a US-French collaboration on Lebanon after years of disagreements on other issues in the region.Faten Ghosn, University of Arizona, and Amal Khoury, Guilford College, “Lebanon after the Civil •War: Peace or the Illusion of Peace?”

Two very different articles round out the issue:

Nicholas Rowe, University of Auckland, “Dance and Political Credibility: The Appropriation of •Dabkeh by Zionism, Pan-Arabism, and Palestinian Nationalism.” How the two sides in the Israeli-Palestinian dispute have used the symbolic dance.Reza Ghasimi, a retired World Bank official, uses internal World Bank archives to delineate a mostly •forgotten sidelight of the Iranian Oil crisis of the 1950s, when the World Bank considered running the Iranian oil company, in “Iran’s Oil Nationalization and Mossadegh’s Involvement with the World Bank.”

The book review article will be “Lebanon: Untangling the Web” by David S. Sorenson, dealing with recent books on Lebanon. In addition, there will be the full complement of book reviews and our Chronology, which has appeared in every issue since the beginning.

Between issues, be sure to follow our several series of online publications at http://www.mei.edu and my daily blog, the MEI Editor’s Blog, at http://mideasti.blogspot.com.

— Michael Collins Dunn

The Middle East Institute presents

The Enivronment and the Middle East: Regional and

International Cooperation

This issue of Viewpoints is the final volume examining environmental issues in the Middle East and is now available on our website at http://www.mei.edu/Publica-tions.aspx.

Featuring nine leading experts, these es-says discuss regional and international so-lutions and impact of revolution on issues concerning the environment.


Beyond the Beltway MEI in the News

MEI scholars have been in high demand in the past few months and have shared their unparalleled insights on a number of critical issues in the Middle East, especially the Arab Spring and its effect within the region and on the rest of the world. Here is just a small sampling of their important contributions since March.

Uprisings in Libya continued to capture the attention of the me-dia, and MEI scholars provided various insights on the crisis. Wayne White was interviewed in the Los Angeles Times on the defection of Libya’s Foreign Minister and spoke to BBC Radio about NATO’s refusal to apologize for the accidental air strike on rebel tanks in eastern Libya. Daniel Serwer, a new MEI scholar, wrote an article entitled “Should We Negotiate with Qaddafi?” which appeared in The Atlantic. David Mack was interviewed by Al Jazeera and Bloomberg News concerning the crisis in Lib-ya, and Zubair Iqbal was interviewed by Voice of America on the possible political and strategic scenarios for the country.

After the US raid in Pakistan that resulted in the death of Usama bin Ladin, US-Pakistani relations were thrust into a state of uncertainty. Various media outlets called on MEI scholars in the week that followed for their in-sights on the developments in Pakistan after his death and the implications for both the future of al-Qa‘ida and US involvement in the region. Wendy Chamberlin spoke to various news sources, including CNN, ABC, BBC, Al Jazeera, Bloomberg TV, PBS, CNBC, The Washington Post, and NPR’s “All Things Considered,” about Usama bin Ladin’s death, addressing rising tensions between Pakistan and the US, the challenge of determining Pakistan’s level of involvement in sheltering bin Ladin, and Prime Minister Galani’s reaction. She also published an article in Newsweek Pakistan entitled “In Search of a New Compact,” which discusses the redefinition of US-Pakistani relations. Dr. Marvin Weinbaum was also in high demand on the topic of US-Pakistani relations and the death of bin Ladin, giving interviews to BBC, Bloomberg News, and Al Jazeera English about the implications of the US raid and the issue of intelligence-sharing between the two countries. His comments were published by the Coun-cil on Foreign Relations in an online discussion about US aid to Pakistan. Ambassador David Mack and Alex Vatanka both spoke to various BBC news channels on US policy in the region after Usama bin Ladin’s death.

Other scholars addressed various concerns regarding Pakistan this spring. Zubair Iqbal published “Pakistan’s Economy on the Razor’s Edge: Reform Imperatives” and “Pakistan’s Economic Challenges: Lessons from Oth-er Country Experiences” in the Criterion Pakistan Quarterly. Michael Ryan published an article in The Jame-stown Foundation’s Terrorism Monitor entitled “After Bin Ladin: Al-Qaeda Strategy in Yemen.”

Reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah changed the dy-namic of Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, and MEI scholars were asked to comment on the outlook for the peace process in light of Palestinian unity, the democratic movement sweep-ing the Arab World, and the pending UN resolution on Pal-estinian statehood. Greg Myre and his wife Jennifer Griffin appeared on Greta Van Susteren’s “On the Record” program on Fox News to discuss their new book, “This Burning Land: Lessons from the Front Lines of the Israeli-Palestinian Con-flict.” Myre also co-wrote a New York Post article with his wife entitled “They Want It All: Palestinian Suicide Bombers Aren’t Interested in Borders or Compromise,” and participated in a

panel discussion on NPR’s Diane Rehm Show. MEI scholars provided their assessments of President Barack Obama’s Middle East speech on May 19. Wendy Chamberlin spoke to the Huffington Post about the speech and also discussed Israeli allies’ lobbying efforts against UN recognition of a Palestinian state. Edward Walker provided his views and reactions to Obama’s speech to ABC News and MSNBC. David Mack was interviewed by Al Jazeera, and David Newton was interviewed by MSNBC about President Obama’s White House meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu.

MEI scholars continue to address the ongoing upheaval that is shifting the political and social dynamics of the Middle East, as well as the implications of the Arab Spring on regional and international security. They were asked

David Mack speaking on Al-Jazeera

Greg Myre with his wife Jennifer Griffin on Fox News


to comment on the outbreak of fighting in Yemen between protestors and government forces and the departure of President ‘Ali ‘Abdullah Salih. Ambassador David Newton spoke to several news sources, including BBC, CNN International, Al Jazeera, and Al Arabiya, concerning the crisis in Yemen and the rocket attack on President Salih. Charles Schmitz wrote an article entitled “Yemen’s Tribal Showdown” and “Yemen Without Saleh” in Foreign Af-fairs online, and David Mack and Alex Vatanka both spoke to BBC on US policy towards Yemen.

As the Bashar al-Asad regime continued its brutal crack-down on civilian protests in Syria, MEI scholars were interviewed for commentary and analysis. Richard Mur-phy was interviewed by BBC and Al Jazeera about the ongoing turmoil in Syria and the continuing violence against political opposition. Murhaf Jouejati was inter-viewed about the power balance in the country on NPR’s “Morning Edition” in a program entitled “Change Ap-pears Inevitable in Syria, Analysts Say.”

Many scholars were interviewed about the current politi-cal landscape of the Middle East, including Richard Mur-phy on BBC Radio and NPR’s “On Point,” and Molly Wil-liamson on NPR. Zubair Iqbal participated in a Voice of America program on the economic effects of the Middle Eastern democratic movement. Michael Ryan gave several radio interviews on the National Geographic special “Inside the Muslim Brotherhood.” Mohamed Elmenshawy participated in a panel discussion on BBC Arabic, discussing the future of relations between the US and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and Syria, and pub-lished an op-ed article in The Huffington Post on Egypt’s political transition and the composition of the future government. Alex Vatanka gave an interview to Voice of America concerning Iran’s position on Arab unrest.

Additionally, Trita Parsi addressed various Iran-related issues this spring, giving an interview to NPR’s “All Things Considered” regarding the political problems facing President Mahmud Ahmadinejad. He also pub-lished two articles in The Huffington Post: one about the release of Josh Fattal and Shane Bauer, who are cur-rently detained in Iran, and another co-authored with Jamal Abdi concerning Obama’s policy towards the Iranian people. He also wrote an article for ForeignPolicy.com entitled “Freeing Israel from its Iran Bluff.”

Around Town

In the past two months, MEI Scholars have been sought out for their expertise at events throughout Washington, DC. Our experts participated in panel discussions and policy briefings at numerous organizations and government agencies.

As the events of the Arab Spring continued to capture the at-tention of the media all over the world, our scholars were at the forefront of the discussion and analysis of the momentous oc-currences within the region. David Mack and Phil Wilcox were part of a panel with Ambassador Ted Kattouf at The Brookings Institute for a group of US officials from defense and intelligence agencies on the subject of “Shaping US Policy in the Middle East.”

David Mack also gave an address on “Dilemmas for Arab Governments and US Policy” for the Foreign Policy Discussion Group and, with the former Libyan Ambassador to the US, also briefed eight members of the House of Representatives on the Libyan situation and US policy choices. David Newton participated in a panel discussion at The Ohio State University John Glenn School of Public Affairs’ center in DC in a program entitled “Will the Middle East Democratize?” Abdallah Schleifer spoke at the 12th Annual Conference of the Center for the Study of Islam and Democracy in Washington, DC. As a member of the panel on “The Impact of the Revolution on the Arab World,” he talked about the Libyan uprising and focused on the similarities and significant differences be-tween the Tunisian and Egyptian movements. He also chaired a panel at this conference entitled “The Revolution and Transition to Democracy in Egypt: Why and How?” Graeme Bannerman participated in The Jamestown Foundation’s 2011 Middle East and North Africa Conference, addressing political unrest in Egypt and Libya. Wendy Chamberlin participated in a panel at the Transatlantic Council where she talked about the Arab Spring revolts. She also spoke at the Arab Global Forum. Michael Ryan conducted a seminar for the Project on Middle East Democracy on Islamist opposition parties in the Middle East as part of its Seminar for Policy Professionals entitled “Between Reform and Revolution: Sources and Varieties of Change in the Middle East.”

Marvin Weinbaum participating in a panel discus-sion at the Center for American Progress

Michael Dunn moderating a panel at MEI


Marvin Weinbaum was called upon for his expertise on Afghanistan and Pakistan for numerous events in DC. He spoke at a State Department-sponsored conference, participated in a panel at the US Institute of Peace examin-ing the US strategic stake in Pakistan, and addressed the Capitol Hill Club on new security challenges facing the US in light of developments in Pakistan and Afghanistan. He also spoke at the Center for American Progress on reconciliation prospects in Afghanistan. The event was covered by C-SPAN and NPR.

MEI scholars were also asked to speak about regional se-curity. The Middle East Journal Editor Michael Dunn led a roundtable discussion with CENTCOM Senior National Representatives at the Near East South Asia Center for Na-tional Security Studies at National Defense University. He also moderated a panel discussion at MEI entitled “What’s Next for Libya?” Thomas Lippman was one of the present-ers at a day-long forum for US intelligence analysts on the subject of water supply and security in the Middle East. Roby Barrett participated in a panel at the German Coun-cil on Foreign Relations to discuss crisis management in the Middle East. Allen Keiswetter spoke at an event entitled “Gulf Security: Iran, Iraq, and the GCC” at the Rumi Forum. He provided his insights on the forthcoming Iraqi elections, US policy toward Iran, and the Gulf perception of Obama’s first year in office.

Other scholar appearances include an event hosted by Mohamed Elmenshawy at the Middle East Institute for Paul Public Charter School. The lecture, entitled “Middle East 101,” was an educational discussion that focused on misconceptions about the Middle East. Gönul Tol discussed Turkey-EU relations with students of the Europe Regional Intensive Area Studies at the Foreign Service Institute and also gave a speech on Muslim integration in Europe at the German Embassy in Washington, DC. She also gave a lecture on identity politics in Turkey to George Washington University’s MBA students. MEI scholars also spoke about Iran, includ-ing Mohammad Ayatollahi Tabaar, who participated in a panel to discuss a new book entitled “The People Reloaded: The Green Movement and the Struggle for Iran’s Future.” Trita Parsi hosted Nobel Prize Laureate Shirin Ebadi for a discussion about human rights, engagement, and the threat of war in Iran.

Beyond the Beltway

MEI scholars provided valuable analysis around the US and the world regarding the Arab Spring, US-Middle East relations, and various other relevant and timely topics. David Newton spoke to the Santa Fe New Mexico World Affairs Forum on US interests in Yemen and also spoke to the Annual Banquet of the SHAPE Officers Associa-tion in Fort Myer, Virginia regarding the implications of the Arab Spring for US Policy in the Middle East. He also gave a lecture at Syracuse University’s Maxwell School regarding the Arab Spring. Wendy Chamberlin spoke at the Chicago Council of Global Affairs’ Conference for the Global Agricultural Development Initiative. Molly Wil-liamson spoke to the American Committee on Foreign

Relations on “The Politics of Petroleum” in St.Paul-Minneapolis. Abdallah Schleifer spoke on “Reflections on the Arab Uprisings” at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia and was the keynote speaker at the United Nations University-International Institute of the Alliance of Civilizations conference held in Barcelona.

MEI Iran experts were also sought out for commentary and analysis. Alex Vatanka spoke at a conference en-titled “Iran at Large” at the University of Illinois at Champagne-Urbana concerning Iran’s strategy for Africa. Mohammad Ayatollahi Tabaar participated in a panel at the George Washington University on “Iran in Transi-tion.” Trita Parsi spoke at the University of California at Los Angeles Burkle Center conference entitled “Can Iran Come in from the Cold?”

Dr. Syed Farooq Hasnat participated in an international conference on “The Middle East in a Changing World: A Contemporary Appraisal” hosted by Karachi University’s International Relations department and the Hanns Seidal Foundation of Germany. Gönul Tol gave a lecture on identity politics in Turkey to the Naval Academy. She also spoke about Turkish immigrants in Europe at a conference entitled “Migration and Devel-opment: Comparing Mexico-US and Turkey-Europe” at the University of California at Davis.

Allen Keiswetter speaking at the Rumi Forum

Trita Parsi discussing Iran with Shirin Ebadi


New Members of the Middle East Institute Team

Tamara Kalandiya is the Director of Finance and Operations for the Middle East Institute. Prior to joining the Middle East Institute, Tamara spent 12 years with Inter-national Medical Corps, where she most recently served as the Middle East Regional Finance and Administrative Director, managing a portfolio that covered relief and development programs from Libya to Iraq. She has also held senior management positions in the North Caucasus and in the International Medical Corps headquarter office in Washington, DC. Tamara has a BS in economics from Moscow State Univer-sity of Management and is a CPA.

Dan McEwan is serving as the Institute’s new Director of Web Development. He leverages an eclectic knowledge of technical possibilities — from microprocessors to open source software contributions — to develop cutting-edge software tools and websites. With a history of building websites for clients ranging from the US House of Representatives to Al-Jazeera, Dan looks forward to bringing the MEI web pres-ence up to the caliber of the organization itself. Beyond just technology, Dan has an academic interest in the Middle East, having studied at the University of Jordan in Amman, and always looks for another chance to discuss the finer points of Jahiliyya poetry over a cup of tea.

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