a.j. mcmichael national centre for epidemiology and population health the australian national...
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A.J. McMichael
National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health The Australian National University
Canberra, Australia
Climate Change and Human Health
A wide-scope overview
Glacier loss, sea-level rise
Nutrition: child devt,
adult health
Ecosystem damage
Property loss
Infra-structure damage
Reduced food yields
Tourism and
recreation
Altered surface water
Loss of jobs,
livelihoods
Direct economic impacts
Climate changeMean conditions
and Variability
Physical hazards
Fresh-water
availability
Food prices, choices
Community morale:
mental health disorders
temperature and rainfall
Microbial ecology(host-animals,
vectors, pathogens)
Hygiene; local food yield
River flows, dams
Infectious disease risks Post-event
depression, etc.
~Other systemic environmental changes – acting in concert with climate change
Direct impacts risks of injury & death
heatwaves, extreme weather events
Displacement,Conflicts
shortages, prices: competition Relocation,
disruptionTrauma, deaths …..
Deaths Attributable to Climate Change in Year 2000
14 WHO statistical regions are, here, scaled by estimated annual mortality (in 2000) due to change in climate since ~1970. Selected causes of death.
(Patz, Gibbs et al, 2007: based on McMichael, Campbell-Lendrum, et al, 2004)
Estimated annual deaths due to climate change from: malnutrition (~80K), diarrhoea (~50K), malaria (~20K), flooding (~3K)
60 days:56,000 extra
deaths in Moscow and
Western Russia(Munich Re estimate)
Approx 8oC above normal
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20110309_russianheatwave.html
Temp oC
Extreme Heat (and Smoke) in Western Russia, Summer 2010: human (and crop) impacts
Baseline 2000 2025 2050
Ebi et al., 2005
Climate Change and Malaria Potential transmission in Zimbabwe
Bulawayo
Climate suitability:* red = high; blue/green = low
High probability
Medium probability
Low probability
Harare
Highlands
* Temperature + minimum seasonal rainfall
Ebi et al., 2005
Bulawayo
Harare
Baseline 2000 2025 2050
Climate Change and Malaria Potential transmission in Zimbabwe
Climate suitability: red = high; blue/green = low
Ebi et al., 2005
Bulawayo
Harare
Baseline 2000 2025 2050
Climate Change and Malaria Potential transmission in Zimbabwe
Climate suitability: red = high; blue/green = low
Schistosomiasis: Modelled future impact of warming on Schistosoma japonicum transmission in China
Source: Zhou et al., Am J Trop Med Hyg 2008
Potential transmission zone now
Zhou et al, 2008: “Recent data suggest that schistosomiasis is re-emerging in some settings [where previously good control]. ….
“Along with other reasons, climate change and ecologic transformations have been suggested as the underlying causes.”
2030: + 0.9oC
2050: + 1.6oC
Yang et al (2005):
Northwards drift, over past 4 decades, of winter ‘freezing zone’ that limits water-snail survival – associated with a 1.0-1.5oC temperature rise in SE China.
This has put an extra 21 million people at risk.
64
36
20
80
Percentage change in yields to 2050
-50 -20 0 +20 +50 +100
UN Devt Prog, 2009
Plus climate-related:• Flood/storm/fire damage• Droughts – range, severity• Pests (climate-sensitive)• Infectious diseases (ditto)
CLIMATE CHANGE: Poor Countries Projected to Fare Worst MODELLED CHANGES IN CEREAL GRAIN YIELDS, TO 2050
Modelled
and child nutrition/underweight
No. of additional deaths (1000s)
Sub-Saharan Africa
South Asia
Climate change: impact on crop yields and child under-nutrition (< 5 yrs) as cause of increased risk of infectious disease: Model-forecast
additional child deaths from infection to 2060 (excluding HIV/AIDS)
Year
Hughes et al., Bull WHO, 2011
1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800
War Fatality Index,
Europe
Nth Hemi-sphere Temp
VariationoC
Rate of Migrations,
Europe
European Temp
Variationstandardised
units
Cold Period1570-1660
Zhang et al., PNAS, 2011
Coldest period, 1570-1660, in Europe during Little Ice Age: Relation to War and Displacement – as Food Yields Plummeted and Prices Rose
Photo-synthetic
activity
20o C 30o C 40o C
Food Yields: General Relationship of Temperature and Photosynthesis
0%
100%
∆ 2oC
∆ 2oC
Hsiang et al., Nature 2011
Affected(n= 93)
Weakly affected(n= 82) New civil conflicts
twice as likely to break out in El Niño years as in cooler La Niña years
Annual Conflict
Rate
(% of countries
with conflict)
El Niño Index (NINO3), oC (May-Dec average SST)
Civil Conflicts, 1950-2004, in Countries Affected and Little Affected by ENSO
And that’s
All
Summary Points• Climate change is a major part of today's 'planetary overload'
syndrome, due to escalating human pressures. It will progressively weaken Earth's life-support capacity.
• Beyond the evident health risks from increases in heatwaves,
weather disasters and some infectious diseases are potentially greater climate-related threats to food yields and nutrition, to freshwater supplies, and to community morale, mental health and stability.
• Climate-related food shortages, starvation, epidemic outbreaks and
associated social unrest endangers health, safety and survival – via conflict, warfare and displacement.