National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena, California

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder

AIRSv6Level‐2StartupState

EvanManningGeorgeAumann

JanGohlkeJetPropulsionLaboratory

CaliforniaInsCtuteofTechnology

5/4/09 1Copyright2009CaliforniaInsCtuteofTechnology.

Governmentsponsorshipacknowledged.

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena, California

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder WhatItIs

•  TheAIRSphysicalretrievalworksoncloud‐clearedradiances.

•  Theseradiancescomefromacloud‐clearingstep.

•  Thecloud‐clearingstepinturnneedstostartwithanesCmateofatmosphericT(p),q(p)•  UseofIRinthisstageraisesissuesofduplicateuseofinformaCon

content.

StartupState

CloudClearing

PhysicalRetrieval

5/4/09 2Copyright2009CaliforniaInsCtuteofTechnology.

Governmentsponsorshipacknowledged.

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena, California

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder History

•  AIRShasalwaysuseda3‐stepstartupprocess:①  AstepwhichgivesaroughT(p),q(p)usingonlyMWand/or

cloudyradiances②  AniniCalcloudclearing③  Aregression

•  Uptov4step#1wasaMW‐onlyopCmalesCmaConretrievalbasedonaNCEP/UARST(p),q(p)climatology

•  Forv5step#1changedtoaregressionthatworksoncloudyradiances–  AnIR‐onlycloudyregressionwasoriginallydevelopedforv5IR‐

onlyretrieval.–  PerformancewassogoodthatanIR+MWcloudyregressionwas

developedfortheIR+MWsystem.

5/4/09 3Copyright2009CaliforniaInsCtuteofTechnology.

Governmentsponsorshipacknowledged.

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena, California

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder WhyRevisitStartupNow?

•  AnimprovedECMWFforecastbasedclimatologyisnowavailable

•  SomelimitaConsofthecurrentstartupapproachhaveemerged–  DoesnotprovideinternalerroresCmatestolaterretrievalsteps–  Doesnotprovideaveragingkernels–  Significantworkisrequiredformaintenance–  Canreactunpredictabilitytonoveldata:

•  Spectralshi_s•  IncreasingCO2

–  Isalikelycontributortospurioustrendsinretrievedproducts

•  BillBlackwellofMIThasproducedanewcandidatestartupalgorithm:SCCNN–  StochasCccloudclearing–  Neuralnetwork–  ReportedatpreviousscienceteammeeCngs

5/4/09 4Copyright2009CaliforniaInsCtuteofTechnology.

Governmentsponsorshipacknowledged.

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena, California

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder ECMWF‐BasedClimatology

•  Themake‐upoftheECMWFforecastclimatologywasdescribedindetailatthe2009‐02netmeeCnghbps://airsteam.jpl.nasa.gov/netmeeCng/20090226.NetmeeCng/Manning_ECMWF_AIRSv5_clim.pdf

•  ThisclimatologyleveragesexisCngprogramswhich:–  ExtractECMWFforecast/analysisatAIRSobservaConlocaConsintoAIRS‐compaCble100‐layerproducts

– Gridtheseproductsin1x1degreecells

5/4/09 5Copyright2009CaliforniaInsCtuteofTechnology.

Governmentsponsorshipacknowledged.

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena, California

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder ClimatologyComparison

Old New

SpaCalResoluCon‐LaCtude

2.5degrees(troposphere)10degrees(stratosphere)

1degree

SpaCalResoluCon‐Longitude

2.5degrees(troposphere)360degrees(stratosphere)

1degree

TemporalResoluCon 1month 1month

TemporalSpecificity VariaConwithinadaynotmodeled

AppropriateforlocaloverpassCme

Surfacetype NodifferenCaCon Land/Seahandledseparately

Model NCEP15‐yearreanalysis ECMWFforecast~2008withimprovedsurface

Variance Novariancedata Hasvariancedata

5/4/09 6Copyright2009CaliforniaInsCtuteofTechnology.

Governmentsponsorshipacknowledged.

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena, California

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder UsingtheNewClimatology

•  Thenewclimatologycouldbeusedinseveralways:–  InputtotheMW‐onlyretrievalintheV4architecture

– ReplacetheMW‐onlyorcloudyregressionasthefirststageofstartup

– ReplacetheenCrestartup

•  TheexercisereportednextusedtheclimatologyinplaceoftheenCrestartup

5/4/09 7Copyright2009CaliforniaInsCtuteofTechnology.

Governmentsponsorshipacknowledged.

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena, California

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder ExerciseDescripCon

•  TheserunsusesimulateddatafromUMBCfor2008‐12‐08–  SurfaceisMasudaland&ocean–  ThereareclearandcloudyradiancesfortheenCreday

•  ThisisahighqualitysimulaCon•  AccordingtoGeorgeAumannthecloudslookrealisCc

–  SeehispresentaCononWednesday

–  Thetruthisknown•  Thebaselinealgorithm(v5.4)iscomparedtothesamealgorithm

withclimatologystartupreplacingbothregressions(v5.4Clim)–  BothhaveJoelSusskind’ssurfaceimprovements–  BothareIR‐only

•  V5.4Climhasclimatologynaively“droppedin”–  Nouseismadeofthevariance–  Noadjustmentshavebeenmadetothephysicalretrieval–  TheclimatologyusedforstartupisbasedonDecember2007

•  UsingDecember2008wouldbecheaCng

5/4/09 8Copyright2009CaliforniaInsCtuteofTechnology.

Governmentsponsorshipacknowledged.

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena, California

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder ExerciseDescripCon

•  BecauseQChasnotbeenadaptedforv5.4Clim,allcomparisonsareperformedoverallretrievals.–  Yieldis100%–  Thisisapreliminaryproofofconcept,notarobusttest

•  Skillisusedforthecomparison.–  Skill=correl(retrieved–background,truth–background)*sqrt(yield)–  Seetalk

hbp://airs.jpl.nasa.gov/documents/science_team_meeCng_archive/science_team_meeCng_2008.10.14/science_team_meeCng_2008.10.14_files/mannning.2008‐10‐18.pdf

–  SkilleffecCvelyweightscasesmorehighlythemoretheydivergefromaclimatologybackground

–  Thesameclimatologywhichisusedasafirstguessinv5.4ClimisusedasabackgroundintheskillcalculaCon.

•  Thismeansthatifthephysicalretrievalpassedtheclimatologythroughunaltereditwouldgetaskillofzero.

5/4/09 9Copyright2009CaliforniaInsCtuteofTechnology.

Governmentsponsorshipacknowledged.

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena, California

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder ExerciseLimitaCons

•  TheimplementaConofv5.4Climwasincomplete

•  Onlyonedayofdatawasused

•  Onlysimulateddatawasused

•  ThelackofQCmakesinterpretaConofresultsdifficult.

5/4/09Copyright2009CaliforniaInsCtuteofTechnology.

Governmentsponsorshipacknowledged. 10

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena, California

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder

ClearResults:AscendingSST

•  Resultsofv5.4andv5.4Climarecomparable–  Bothhave~1Kwarmbias

•  ThismaybeduetodetailsofthesimulaCon(didnotincludeopCcaldepthtuning)–  Bothhavetroubleathighscananglesinverywetordrycases

•  v5.4isnoisierthanv5.4Climandhasmoreangledependence•  v5.4ClimhaslargerregionswhereTsurfisbiasedsignificantlycool

–  ThesearedryregionsrelaCvetoclimatology

v5.4 v5.4ClimSST‐Truth

5/4/09 11Copyright2009CaliforniaInsCtuteofTechnology.

Governmentsponsorshipacknowledged.

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena, California

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder

ClearResults:AscendingSST

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Governmentsponsorshipacknowledged.

v5.4SST‐Truth

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena, California

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder

ClearResults:AscendingSST

5/4/09 13Copyright2009CaliforniaInsCtuteofTechnology.

Governmentsponsorshipacknowledged.

SST‐Truthv5.4Clim

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena, California

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder

CloudyResults:AscendingSST

•  Resultsaresimilarforv5.4&v5.4Clim•  Missedcloudsarethemainproblemforboth

–  V5.4ismorepronetorunaway>20Kcold•  ThesewouldnormallybeidenCfiedbyQC

–  V5.4ClimsomeCmesjustfailsincloudclearingfortheserunawaycasesbecausethestartupstateistoofarfromthetruth

v5.4 v5.4ClimSST‐Truth

5/4/09 14Copyright2009CaliforniaInsCtuteofTechnology.

Governmentsponsorshipacknowledged.

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena, California

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder

CloudyResults:AscendingSST

v5.4SST‐Truth

5/4/09 15Copyright2009CaliforniaInsCtuteofTechnology.

Governmentsponsorshipacknowledged.

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena, California

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder

CloudyResults:AscendingSST

5/4/09 16Copyright2009CaliforniaInsCtuteofTechnology.

Governmentsponsorshipacknowledged.

v5.4ClimSST‐Truth

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena, California

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder

CloudyResults:TemperatureProfileSkill

5/4/09 17

•  Globalstatssuggestv5.4Climissuperiorforskill,bias,andstandarddeviaConoftemperatureprofilethroughoutthetroposphere.

•  Thedifferenceisgreatestatthesurface•  V5.4Climseemsunaffectedbyproblemswithcloudclearing

V5.4skill

V5.4Climskill

Copyright2009CaliforniaInsCtuteofTechnology.Governmentsponsorshipacknowledged.

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena, California

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder

CloudyResults:TemperatureProfileSkill

5/4/09 18

•  V5.4Climseemsmuchbeberthanv5.4inthetropics(+/‐20degreeslaCtude)wherethevariaConoftheweatherisrelaCvelysmallandcloudinessishigh.

•  V5.4Clim seems best below 700 mbar everywhere.

•  V5.4isbeberinthetroposphereabove700mbarinthemoderateregion(40‐60degreeslaCtude)wheretheweatherismorechangeable

•  Resultsforthesubtropicalandpolarzonesalsofavorv5.4Clim,thoughnotasstronglyasthetropicsdo.

Copyright2009CaliforniaInsCtuteofTechnology.Governmentsponsorshipacknowledged.

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena, California

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder Analysis:ClimatologyStartup

•  V5.4Climcomparessurprisinglywellwiththev5.4baseline,evenwithoutchangestothephysicalretrieval

•  Awell‐tunedsystemwithaclimatologystart‐upwouldneed:

•  SubstanCallymorechannelsthanthebaselinesystem–  BecauseregressioniscurrentlyprovidingallverCcalfinestructure

•  SubstanCallymoreverCcalretrievallevelsthanthebaselinesystem

–  BecausetheiniCalstateisfurtherfromthefinalstate•  SubstanCallymoreCPUCme

–  Thisslowdownisacceptable.

5/4/09 19Copyright2009CaliforniaInsCtuteofTechnology.

Governmentsponsorshipacknowledged.

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena, California

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder Analysis:ExtremeWeather

•  ExtremeweathercondiConsarethemostdifficultforasystemwithaclimatologystartup•  Cloudclearingmustworkreasonablywithabackgroundstate

farfromthetruestate•  Thephysicalretrievalmustmakelargechanges

•  Theskillmetricisspecificallydesignedtoweightnon‐typicalweatherpabernsmorehighly

•  Thev5.4Climclimatologystartupsystemalreadydoeswell,evenintermsofskill,comparedtothev5.4regressionstartupsystem•  ApparentlyextremeweathercondiConsarealsoaproblemfor

regression

5/4/09 20Copyright2009CaliforniaInsCtuteofTechnology.

Governmentsponsorshipacknowledged.

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena, California

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder SCCNN

•  BillBlackwellhasdescribedthealgorithmatpreviousmeeCngs.hbp://airs.jpl.nasa.gov/documents/science_team_meeCng_archive/science_team_meeCng_2008.04.15/science_team_meeCng_2008.04.15_files/blackwell.pdf

•  Regression‐like

•  LastyearIshowedresultsofskilltesCngonSCCNN–  Resultswerebeberthanregressionandalmostequaltofullretrieval–  Theboundarylayerwasthemainproblemarea–  Newertestdatashowstheboundarylayerproblemisovercome

•  MIThasproducedaFORTRAN‐languageversionofthealgorithmsuitableforintegraConinAIRSoperaConalLevel‐2retrievalcode

•  JanGohlkehasthestandaloneprogramrunningatJPLinpreparaConforintegraCon.–  FinaldebuggingandvalidaConissCllinprocess.

5/4/09 21Copyright2009CaliforniaInsCtuteofTechnology.

Governmentsponsorshipacknowledged.

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena, California

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder ConCnuingWork

•  Climatologyneedstobecompleted.•  Currentlyhaveonly6monthsfrom1‐2years

•  Needall12months•  NeedtofillingapsinrecentECMWFforecast

•  EvaluateuseofmulCyearaveragevs.latest

•  ThephysicalretrievalmustbeopCmizedtoworkwithclimatologystartupbeforeafullcomparisoncanbemade:

–  Addchannelsandslabs–  Reducedamping/increaseiteraCons–  UseclimatevarianceasanerroresCmateonstartupT(p),q(p)

•  IfregressionsaregoingtoconCnuetobeusedtheirtrainingsetneedstobeupdatedtoincludemorerecentdata

•  Weneedtocomparebaselinev6with:–  SCCNN–  Climatology

•  ReplicateresultsatotherlocaCons–  MW‐Onlywiththenewclimatology

5/4/09 22Copyright2009CaliforniaInsCtuteofTechnology.

Governmentsponsorshipacknowledged.

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena, California

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder Conclusions

•  ClimatologystartupisaviablealternaCvetoregression.•  MoredevelopmentandtesCngisneeded

•  Thefinalchoiceofv6startupshouldnotbebasedonlyonskillorothermeasurementsofaccuracyandyield.Wealsomustconsider:– Predictabilityofresults– ErrorpropagaCon– Availabilityofaveragingkernels

5/4/09 23Copyright2009CaliforniaInsCtuteofTechnology.

Governmentsponsorshipacknowledged.

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena, California

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder

BACKUP

5/4/09Copyright2009CaliforniaInsCtuteofTechnology.

Governmentsponsorshipacknowledged. 24

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena, California

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder

SSTv5.4Clim–Climatology:ShowsPhysicalRetrievalCan

MakeLargeChanges

5/4/09Copyright2009CaliforniaInsCtuteofTechnology.

Governmentsponsorshipacknowledged. 25