Land use

TemperaturePrecipitation

Sunshine

Water resource

Crop Productivity

Socio-economicindicator

Impact on food demand

Adaptation strategy

AIM/EcosystemA set of ecosystem models, including a vegetation dynamics model, a water resource model, an agricultural productivity model and a health impact model

A reduced-form model to project future socio-economic trends and environmental change for all 42 countries

Futureeconomic trend

Futureenvironmental trend

India

Thailand

Korea

Japan

China

AIM/TrendIndustry

Green Purchase

Environ-mental Burden

Environment Fund

Environmental Industry (waste management, recycle)

Was

tes

Environmental Burden

Rec

ycle

　　　　　　　　 Technology needsTechnology assessment 　　　　　　　

EnvironmentalIndustry

Environmentalburden

Consumer

Research on new technologies

AIM/MaterialA environment-economy integrated model with material balance and recycling process modules

Emission Intensity of SO2 in China

AIM/EnergyA bottom-up technology selection model of energy useand emissions at country and locallevel

AIM/Bottom-upA bottom-up technology &

land use model for Asia-Pacific region

AIM/Top-downA general-equilibrium-

type world economic model

AIM FamilyAIM Family

Figure 1: AIM Model Development for APEIS

Households, government, industryIntermediate, energy, capital, labor, produced goods and service, tax

AEEIstructure change

technology change

Price effect-substitution

elasticity

Incomeeffect

Investmenteffect

Emissions Service demand

Technologies indemand sectors

Technologies inconversion sectors

Technologies formitigation options

Technology mix

Service supply

Economic Top-down: AIM/CGE(Asia)

Technology Bottom-up: AIM/EnduseFigure 2: The General Structure of AIM/Trend

17

050

100150200250300350400

2002

MF(

2032

)PR

(203

2)FW

(203

2)G

T(20

32)

2002

MF(

2032

)PR

(203

2)FW

(203

2)G

T(20

32)

2002

MF(

2032

)PR

(203

2)FW

(203

2)G

T(20

32)

2002

MF(

2032

)PR

(203

2)FW

(203

2)G

T(20

32)

2002

MF(

2032

)PR

(203

2)FW

(203

2)G

T(20

32)

AFG BGD BTNIND IRN MDVNPL PAK LKABRN KHM IDNLAO MYS MMRPHL SGP THAVNM CHN PRKJPN KOR MNGTWN KAZ KGZTJK TKM UZBAUS NZL FJIKIR NRU PLWPNG PYF TONVUT WSM SLB

South EastAsia

South Asia East Asia Central Asia ANZ and SouthPacific

Billions dollars

Environmental Market Scale in 2002 and 2032

MF: Market ForcesPR: Policy ReformFW: Fortress WorldGT: Great Transition

Figure 3: A Projection of the Development of the Environmental Industry using AIM/Trend

Figure 4: The Flow of Biomass in Food Production as to be used by AIM/Trend

18

Production and service

sector

Households,government

AbroadMarketImportExport

Producedgoods and service

Final demand

Environmentalcountermeasure

options

Environmental pollution reduction,Energy recovery

Priceactivity levels

Capitallabor

Intermediate energy,capital, labor

(MACs, technology menu)

Capital, labor,resources, land

Figure 5: The Structure of AIM/CGE (Asia – 10 regions)

AIM/Enduse GIS System (IDRISI 32)

Input fileof GIS System

AIM/Enduse GIS System (IDRISI 32)

Input fileof GIS System

0.0012.5025.0037.5050.0062.5075.0087.50100.00112.50125.00137.50150.00162.50175.00187.50>=200.00

0.0012.5025.0037.5050.0062.5075.0087.50100.00112.50125.00137.50150.00162.50175.00187.50>=200.00

0.0012.50

25.00

37.50

50.00

62.50

75.0087.50

100.00

112.50

125.00137.50

150.00

162.50

175.00187.50

>=200.00

0 .0012.50

25.00

37.50

50.00

62.50

75.0087.50

100.00

112.50

125.00137.50

150.00

162.50

175.00187.50

>=200.00

S um o f Va lu e E n erg y_De vi c e Rem o va lC K 1 C K 2 C OL B LR

Y ear N ON N ON N ON SF GD_b as e 4 ,700 ,00 0 1 ,300 ,0 0 0 24 ,528 ,0 00 1 ,752 ,0 0 0 1 99 5 4 ,700 ,00 0 1 ,300 ,0 0 0 24 ,528 ,0 00 1 ,752 ,0 0 0 1 99 6 6 ,000 ,00 0 26 ,134 ,5 33 1 ,664 ,4 0 0 1 99 7 6 ,180 ,00 0 27 ,624 ,8 34 1 ,584 ,4 6 6 1 99 8 6 ,365 ,40 0 29 ,010 ,7 07 1 ,510 ,8 7 6 1 99 9 6 ,556 ,36 2 30 ,301 ,8 36 1 ,442 ,6 6 2 2 00 0 6 ,753 ,05 3 31 ,506 ,4 18 1 ,379 ,0 9 1 2 00 1 6 ,955 ,64 5 32 ,631 ,5 43 1 ,319 ,5 8 7 2 00 2 7 ,164 ,31 4 33 ,683 ,4 47 1 ,263 ,6 9 4 2 00 3 7 ,379 ,24 4 34 ,667 ,6 80 1 ,211 ,0 3 5 2 00 4 7 ,600 ,62 1 35 ,589 ,2 32 1 ,161 ,3 0 0 2 00 5 7 ,828 ,64 0 36 ,452 ,6 18 1 ,114 ,2 2 6

S um o f Va lu e E n erg y_De vi c e Rem o va lC K 1 C K 2 C OL B LR

Y ear N ON N ON N ON SF GD_b as e 4 ,700 ,00 0 1 ,300 ,0 0 0 24 ,528 ,0 00 1 ,752 ,0 0 0 1 99 5 4 ,700 ,00 0 1 ,300 ,0 0 0 24 ,528 ,0 00 1 ,752 ,0 0 0 1 99 6 6 ,000 ,00 0 26 ,134 ,5 33 1 ,664 ,4 0 0 1 99 7 6 ,180 ,00 0 27 ,624 ,8 34 1 ,584 ,4 6 6 1 99 8 6 ,365 ,40 0 29 ,010 ,7 07 1 ,510 ,8 7 6 1 99 9 6 ,556 ,36 2 30 ,301 ,8 36 1 ,442 ,6 6 2 2 00 0 6 ,753 ,05 3 31 ,506 ,4 18 1 ,379 ,0 9 1 2 00 1 6 ,955 ,64 5 32 ,631 ,5 43 1 ,319 ,5 8 7 2 00 2 7 ,164 ,31 4 33 ,683 ,4 47 1 ,263 ,6 9 4 2 00 3 7 ,379 ,24 4 34 ,667 ,6 80 1 ,211 ,0 3 5 2 00 4 7 ,600 ,62 1 35 ,589 ,2 32 1 ,161 ,3 0 0 2 00 5 7 ,828 ,64 0 36 ,452 ,6 18 1 ,114 ,2 2 6

AIM/EnduseDatabase

AIM/Enduse Database System (MS Access)

User interface

Display of output with pivot table and chart

User

Export moduleExportmodule

Import module

AIM/EnduseGAMS program

AIM/Enduse General Algebraic Modelling System (GAMS) Program

Input file of GAMS Program

Output file ofGAMS Program

Figure 6: The Development of AIM/Energy

19

Figure 7: Projections of energy intensity for selected industries in India and China

Steel

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

2000 2010 2020 2030

India China

Cement

0.8

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

2000 2010 2020 2030

India China Paper and Pulp

0.86

0.88

0.9

0.92

0.94

0.96

0.98

1

1.02

2000 2010 2020 2030

India China

Index 2000 = 1

Classification Technologies (equipment)Iron & Steel Coke oven, Sintering machine, Blast furnace, Open hearth furnace (OH), Basic oxygen furnace (BOF), AC-electric arc furnace, DC-electric arc furnace,

Ingot casting machine, Continuous casting machine, Continuous casting machine with rolling machine, steel rolling machine, Continuous steel rollingmachine, Equipment of coke dry quenching, Equipment of coke wet quenching, Electric power generated with residue pressure on top of blast furnace(TRT), Equipment of coke oven gas, OH gas and BOF gas recovery, Equipment of co-generation.

Non-ferrous metal Aluminum production with sintering process, Aluminum production with combination process, Aluminum with Bayer, Electrolytic aluminum with upper-insert cell, Electrolytic aluminum with side-insert cell, crude copper production with flash furnace, crude copper production with electric furnace, Blastfurnace, Reverberator furnace, Lead smelting-sintering in blast furnace, Lead smelting with closed blast furnace, Zinc smelting with wet method, Zincsmelting with vertical pot method.

Building materials Cement: Mechanized shaft kiln, Ordinary shaft kiln, Wet process kiln, Lepol kiln, Ling dry kiln, Rotary kiln with pro-heater, dry process rotary kiln withpre-calciner, Self-owned electric power generator, Electric power generator with residue heat; Brick & Tile: Hoffman kiln, Tunnel kiln;Lime: Ordinary shaft kiln, Mechanized shaft kiln; Glass: Floating process, Vertical process, Colburn process, Smelter.

Chemical industry Equipment of synthetic ammonia production: Converter, Gasification furnace, Gas-making furnace, Synthetic column, Shifting equipment of sulphurremoving; Equipment of caustic soda production: Electronic cell with graphite process, Two-stage effects evaporator, Multi-stage effects evaporator,Equipment of rectification, Ion membrane method; Calcium Carbine production: Limestone calciner, Closed carbine furnace, Open carbine furnace,Equipment of residue heat recovery; Soda ash production: Ammonia & salt water preparation, limestone calcining, distillation column, filter; Fertilizerproduction: Equipment of organic products production, Equipment of residue heat utilization

Petrochemical Industry Facilities of atmospheric & vacuum distillation, Facilities of rectification, Facilities of catalyzing & cracking, Facilities of cracking with hydrogen adding,Facilities of delayed coking, Facilities of light carbon cracking, Sequential separator, Naphtha cracker, de-ethane separator, diesel cracker, de-propanecracker, facilities of residue heat utilization from ethylene.

Paper-making Cooker, facilities of distillation, facilities of washing, facilities of bleaching, evaporator, crusher, facilities of de-water, facilities of finishing, facilities ofresidue heat utilization, facilities of black liquor recovery, Co-generator, Back pressure electric power generator, condensing electric power generator.

Textile Cotton weaving process, Chemical fiber process, Wool weaving & textile process, Silk process, Printing & dyeing process, Garment making, Airconditioner, Lighting, Facilities of space heating.

Machinery Ingot process: Cupola, Electric arc furnace, fan; Forging process: coal-fired pre-heater, Gas-fired pre-heater, Oil-fired pre-heater, Steam hammer, Electric-hydraulic hammer, Pressing machine; Facilities of heat processing: Coal-fired heat processing furnace, Oil-fired heat processing furnace, Gas-fired heatprocessing furnace, Electric processing furnace; Cutting process: Ordinary cutting, high speed cutting.

Irrigation Diesel engine, Electric induct motorFarming works Tractor, Other agricultural machineAgricultural productsprocess

Diesel engine, Electric induct motor, processing machine, coal-fired facilities.

Fishery Diesel engine, Electric induct motor.Animal husbandry Diesel engine, Electric induct motor, Other machines.Space heating in resident Heat supplying boiler in thermal power plant, Boiler of district heating, Dispersed boiler, Small coal-fired stove, Electric heater, Brick bed linked with

stove (Chinese KANG).Cooling in resident Air conditioner, Electric fan.Lighting in resident Incandescent lamp, Fluorescent lamp, Kerosene lamp.Cooking & Hot water inresident

Gas burner, bulk coal-fired stove, briquette-fired stove, Kerosene stove, Electric cooker, cow dung-fired stove, firewood-fired stove, methane-fired stove.

Electric Appliance Television, Cloth washing machine, Refrigerator, others.Space heating in service sector Heat supplying boiler in the thermal power plant, Boiler of district heating, dispersed boiler, Electric heater.Cooling System of central air conditioner, Air conditioner, Electric fan.Lighting Incandescent lamp, fluorescent lamp.Cooking & Hot water Gas burner, Electric cooker, Hot water pipeline, Coal-fired stove.Electric Appliance Duplicating machine, computer, Elevator, others.Passenger & freight transport Railway (passenger & freight): Steam locomotive, Internal combustion engine locomotive, Electric locomotive.; Highway (passenger & freight): Public diesel

vehicle, Public gasoline vehicle, Private vehicle, Large diesel freight truck, Large gasoline vehicle, small freight truck.Waterway (passenger & freight): Ocean-going ship, Coastal ship, Inland ship.Aviation (passenger & freight): Freight airplane, passenger airplane.

Box 1 AIM technology file (extract)

20

GD

P loss

(fro

m b

aselin

e:%

)G

DP

loss

(fro

m b

aselin

e:%

)

environmental constraint+ early investment

Environmental constraint+ early investment

environmental constraint+ delayed investment

Environmental constraint+ delayed investment

-3.50

-3.00

-2.50

-2.00

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

2020 2030-3.50

-3.00

-2.50

-2.00

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

2020 2030

Figure 8: Indian GDP Loss and Recovery caused by Environmental Constraints and Investment

Year

Capital Labor EnergyInputs for pollution

managementOther inter-

mediate inputs

Solidwaste

Household

Investment

Final consumption

Resource input

Environmentalindustry

Disposal

Recycling

Wastetreatment

Resource input

Finaldisposal

CO2

Environmental investment

Intermediatemanagement

polic

y

polic

y

polic

y

Productionactivity

Market polic

y

Treats solid waste flows1) direct reuse2) direct final disposal3) intermediate management

⇒residual: reuse orfinal disposal

Disaggregates environmental industry from ordinary production sectors

Disaggregates and adds inputs for pollution management as inputs of production function

Box 2 Features of AIM/Material

21

Globalisation

TechnologyIntroduction

Regionalisation

3500000

3550000

3600000

3650000

3700000

3750000

3800000

3850000

3900000

3950000

4000000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year

Fore

st a

rea

(‘000

ha)

Figure 9: Projections for the world’s area of forests under different scenarios

Scenarios

2000

2020

2050

0 20 40 60 80 100 ～(%)

1 5 10

0 20 40 60 80 100 ～(%)

1 5 10

Water Stress Index(ratio between total withdrawal and renewable water resource)

Globalisation

Figure 10: Simulations of global water stress prepared using AIM/Water

22