agriculture and forest sector long-term outlook from globiom
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Agriculture and Forest Sector Long-Term Outlook from GLOBIOM
Ulrich Kleinwechter
Ecosystems Services & Management ProgrammeInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria
in collaboration with the IIASA Environmental Resources and Development (ERD) Group
Strategic Foresight ConferenceIFPRI, Washington D.C., 7 November 2014
Outline
1. Introduction
2. Model overview
3. Foresight activities with GLOBIOM
4. Results: Foresight for socio-economic and climatic drivers
5. Summary and conclusion
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IIASA Founded in 1972 to use scientific
cooperation to build bridges across the Cold War divide
Non-governmental institute: 22 National Member Organizations representing Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Americas
International interdisciplinary staff of ~150 Researchers
Construction and exploration of models of complex socio-economic and environmental systems to answer global challenges
Laxenburg, (close toVienna), Austria
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GLOBIOM
Global scale agriculture and forest sector model based on detailedspatial resolution (>200k cells)
Partial equilibrium Agricultural, wood and bioenergy markets 30 world regions Bilateral trade
Bottom-up approach Explicit description of production technologies a la Leontief Technologies specified by production system and grid cell
Main data source
FAOSTAT, complemented with bottom-up sectoral models for production parameters
Base year: 2000 Time step: 10 years, time horizon: 2030/2050 but also 2100
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18 crops (FAO + SPAM)Wheat, Rice, Maize, Soybean,
Barley, Sorghum, Millet, Cotton, Dry beans, Rapeseed,
Groundnut, Sugarcane, Potatoes, Cassava,
Sunflower, Chickpeas, Palm Fruit, Sweet potatoes
3 different systems
7 animals(FAO + Gridded livestock)
Cattle & BuffaloSheep & Goat
PigPoultry
8 different systems
Downscaled FAO FRA at grid level
AreaCarbon stock
AgeTree sizeSpecies
Rotation timeThinning
Land
use Land suitable for
PoplarPillow
Eucalyptus
Productivity from literature
Cropland Grassland Managed forest
Global Land Cover 2000
Short rotation plantations
Other naturalland
Natural forest
Land
cov
er
ECONOMIC MARKET + Spatial equilibrium trade PRICES
Mar
kets
Food Fibers EnergyDem
and
Industry
Population, GDP, preferences
BIOENERGYProcessing
MJ biofuelMJ bioelectricCoproducts
G4MGlobal Forest model
Harvestable wood Harvesting costs
EPIC
Rain, Snow, Chemicals
Subsurface Flow
Surface Flow
Below Root Zone
Evaporation and
Transpiration
RUMINANTDigestibility model
Feed intake Animal production GHG emissions
Pro
duct
ion
Global and regional foresight activities
LEDPathways
Regional scenarios
Regional food security under conditions of global environmental and socio-economic change-
Livestock sector futures
Low emissions agricultural development pathways and priorities for mitigation in agriculture
Global and EU food security
OECD Long term scenarios Model intercomparisons
IPCC scenario analysis
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Generally positive outlook for food availability by 2050 under SSP 2
Albeit at cost of LUC and high emissions, if unabated
Contingency of agricultural development on SSP
Market effects of climate change mitigation
Price increases & reductions in calorie availability
Production effects of climate change mitigation
Changes in production levels, production system transitions, spatial
reallocation
Effects of socio-economic development dominate climate change
impacts
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GLOBIOM provides integration of agriculture and forest
sectors in a comprehensive framework
Links with biophysical models (EPIC, RUMINANT, G4M)
Extensions: GHG emissions accounting, input use (fertilizer,
water), food security
Possibility for regional zooming-in
E.g. Congo Basin, Brazil
Disaggregation of production with high spatial resolution
and along production systems
=> Potential for applications to technology assessment and
priority setting