The 2011 North American The 2011 North American Forest Sector Outlook Study Forest Sector Outlook Study

Jeff Prestemon

US Forest ServiceSouthern Research Station

Research Triangle Park, North Carolina

OverviewOverview

• NAFSOS Countries– Canada– USA

• Projections based off the 2010 RPA Forest Assessment

• Common IPCC Scenarios with the 2011 EFSOS

Recent AssessmentsRecent Assessments

• North American Timber Trends Study (1996)

• FAO Forestry Sector Outlook Studies (2008)– United States – Canada

• Resources Planning Act Assessments– 1975, 1979, 1989, 1993, 2000, 2007– Others even earlier

Focal Points of the 2010 RPA Focal Points of the 2010 RPA AssessmentAssessment

• Climate change• Changing forest ownership• Climate/energy policies

– Carbon / biofuels• New product technologies

– Especially biofuels• Urbanization/Growth of Wildland-

Urban Interface• Disturbances

Structure of Forest Sector Structure of Forest Sector Modeling System (USFAS)Modeling System (USFAS)

• Three US Model Domains– Forest Uses– Forest Dynamics– Ecosystem Services

• Exogenous global factors—IPCC Scenarios– Macroeconomic conditions– Climate– Human demographics

USFUSFAAS Model DomainsS Model Domains

Forest Use DomainLand Uses

Wood Products MarketsForest Dynamics Domain

Forest areaForest conditions

Forest management

Forest Ecosystem Services DomainCarbonWildlifeWater

USFUSFAAS Model DomainsS Model Domains

Forest Use DomainLand Uses

Global Wood Products MarketsResource Management Forest Dynamics Domain

Forest areaForest conditions

Forest Ecosystem Services DomainCarbonWildlifeWater

ClimateScenarios

Global Economic Conditions

Human PopulationDistribution

Forest Uses DomainForest Uses Domain

• Wood and Timber Products– Price endogenous sector modeling– GFPM (Buongiorno et al.)

• All countries– USFPM (Ince et al.)

• Nested in GFPM• Three US Regions

• Land Use Model (Plantinga and Alig)– All land uses– Ag sector and development– County grain

Forest Dynamics DomainForest Dynamics Domain

• Domestic US forest inventory modeling– Monte Carlo forest inventory simulations

(Wear, Huggett, Abt)– Forest inventory at the plot level

• Takes advantage of the new FIA design– Harvest model

• Economic choice model• Defines timber supply through aggregation

– Unharvested plot transitions• Climate• Forest Succession• Natural disturbance

Ecosystem Services DomainEcosystem Services Domain

• Tied to forest inventory and land use– Carbon accounting– Biodiversity– Water

IPCC ScenariosIPCC Scenarios

• Exogenous drivers– Global and Domestic

macroeconomics– Population and

demographics– Climate– Policies– Bioenergy demands

• Projections to 2060– Detailed forest

inventories: all states– Wood products and

timber market activity (global and domestic)

– Land use for all counties in US

– Ecosystem services: carbon, others

Contrast to previous effortsContrast to previous efforts

• Inventory data are still critical foundation

• Price endogenous spatial equilibrium to simulate markets– Domestic to global

• New techniques to build supply from the “ground-up” and generate useful biological/ecological data

NAFSOS ElementsNAFSOS Elements

• Accounting for historical conditions– Forests– Forest products

• Description of projections to 2030 (or later)

• Separate assessments of the US and Canada, modeled jointly in the GFPM

Projection ElementsProjection Elements• Forest area changes/Land Use Changes.• Forest inventory (stock) changes, possibly including forest carbon

stocks.• Domestic market changes (production, consumption), by major

product categories.• Trade changes (imports, exports), by major product categories,

industrial primary and secondary products.• Price changes, by major product categories.• Energy wood market changes (“fuelwood” in GFPM), including prices,

production, consumption, imports, exports.• Competitiveness changes• Sectoral employment changes over time.• The role of disturbances and climate change in facilitating forest

changes.

NAFSOS ElementsNAFSOS Elements

• Annexes– RPA and GFPM Structure– Discussion of differing assumptions

across the Outlook Studies– Policy Analyses

Policy AnalysesPolicy Analyses

• Global forest product markets without wood bioenergy imposed assumptions

• Effect of global climate change on forest productivity growth, forests, and the forest product sector

• Impacts of carbon legislation• North American Footprint

Global ModelingGlobal Modeling

A Rube Goldberg Pencil Sharpener

Source: Rubegoldberg.com

Some Preliminary ModelingSome Preliminary Modeling

• GFPM– Dynamic Spatial Economic model– 180 countries– 14 commodities– Production, imports, exports– Prices– Forest area & stock– Value added

• USFPM/GFPM– Special module nested within GFPM– Provides more details on the US

USFPM/GFPMUSFPM/GFPM

• Preliminary results are available for all three IPCC scenarios (A1B, A2, B2)

Model BasicsModel Basics

• USFPM/GFPM– USFPM models timber supply,

timber harvest, and forest product production in three U.S. subregions (North, South, West)

– All other countries in the world (including Canada) are still treated as single producing and consuming locations.

– USFPM is built to operate within GFPM

– There is a single external relationship with the rest of the world

Product AlignmentProduct AlignmentUSFPM Product Category GFPM Product CategoryHardwood lumber Sawnwood Softwood lumberSoftwood plywood Plywood/veneerHardwood plywoodOriented Strand Board ParticleboardIndustrial particleboardFiberboard Fiberboard Newsprint Newsprint Printing and writing paper Printing and writing paperWood fuel stock Fuelwood roundwood and charcoalOther industrial roundwood Other industrial roundwoodChemical pulp Chemical pulpMechanical pulp Mechanical pulpSoftwood sawtimber Industrial roundwoodSoftwood non‐sawtimberHardwood sawtimber Fuelwood Hardwood non‐sawtimberHardwood short‐rotation woody crops Other (industrial) roundwoodSoftwood short‐rotation woody cropsRecovered paper Waste paperNon‐wood pulp Other fiber pulpSoftwood fiber residuesHardwood fiber residues (No wood residues tracked)Fuel residueHarvest (logging) residue

Projected expansion of primary biomass energy Projected expansion of primary biomass energy output varies globally by macro region, so wood output varies globally by macro region, so wood energy expansion in USA differs somewhat from the energy expansion in USA differs somewhat from the projected global expansion (2010projected global expansion (2010--2060):2060):

Global USA(GFPM) (USFPM)

A1B 5.5X ~6X

A2 2.7X ~5X

B2 2.9X ~2X

These BioThese Bio--energy assumptions become powerful energy assumptions become powerful drivers of projected forest product markets & tradedrivers of projected forest product markets & trade

Scenario: A1B A2 B2U.S. GDP Growth (2010-2060) High (2.8X) Medium (2.4X) Medium (1.8X)

U.S. Population Growth (2010-2060) Medium (1.44X) High (1.6X) Medium (1.3X)

U.S Housing Growth (2010-2060) Modest (1.3X) High (1.5X) No net growth

U.S. Wood Energy Expansion (2010-2060) ~6X ~5X ~2X

General DescriptionGlobalization,

Economic Convergence

Heterogenic Regionalism, Less Trade

Localized Solutions, Slow

Change

General Development Themes

Introduction of New & More

Efficient Technologies;

Capacity Building

Self-reliance, Preservation of Local Identities

Sustainable Development,

Diversified Technology

Summary of RPA scenario characteristics:Summary of RPA scenario characteristics:

Selected IPCC (SRES) Scenarios = A1 AIM, A2 ASF, B2 Message

USFPM/GFPM allows “cascading” economic substitution of raw materials into energy, based on prices and costs – i.e., if demand or prices for fuel or pulpwood become high enough, they can consume higher value inputs:

Sawlogs

Harvest Residue Pulpwood Fiber Residue

Fuel Residue

Fuel Feedstock

Agric. SRWC

RPA Scenarios: We calibrated U.S. demand growth for wood fuel feedstock to OECD90 biomass energy expansion off of B2 level in 2000, as shown here . . .

0

10

20

30

40

50

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

Exaj

oule

s (=

1018

jou

les)

A1BA2B2

Projections calibrated to 6 EJ primary biomass energy in 2000 (as in B2 scenario)

~6X

~5X

~2X

We can apply consistent growth calibration to other GFPM regions

Calibration is not a trivial issue . . . Others have rather different downscaled U.S. biomass energy growth interpretations from IPCC storylines . . .

Preliminary estimates from USGS not nearly the same as our growth rates . . .A1B +20XA2 +16XB2 +18X

(2010-2060)

U.S. Total Biofuels Use - EJ/Yr

0

5

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25

30

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

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2060

A1BA2B2

ConcernsConcerns• GFPM and lost fiber

– Need to clarify the importance of this issue• Conversion factors

– GFPM uses FAO data as an input; does this need adjusting for our reports?

– Investigate adjusting historical reported data?• GFPM in RPA will not account for the effects

of climate change on Canada– Sensitivity analysis planned, but not a

substitute– Mart-Jan and I need to talk about the climate

change increment data by country, to improve our sensitivity analysis

Some Preliminary ResultsSome Preliminary Results

GFPM Results: Roundwood A1BGFPM Results: Roundwood A1BProduction of Total Roundwood, A1B

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

4000000

4500000

5000000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060Year

Thou

sand

cub

ic m

eter

s

Africa North/Central America South America Asia Oceania Europe

GFPM: Lumber A1BGFPM: Lumber A1B

Production of Sawnwood, A1B

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060Year

Thou

sand

cub

ic m

eter

s

Africa North/Central America South America Asia Oceania Europe

GFPM: Panels A1BGFPM: Panels A1B

Production of Woodbased Panels, A1B

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060Year

Thou

sand

cub

ic m

eter

s

Africa North/Central America South America Asia Oceania Europe

GFPM: Paper A1BGFPM: Paper A1B

Production of Total Paper & Paperboard, A1B

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1400000

1600000

1800000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060Year

Thou

sand

met

ric to

ns

Africa North/Central America South America Asia Oceania Europe

Newsprint Comparison Under A1Newsprint Comparison Under A1

US Newsprint with USFPM/GFPM(Demand Assumptions Differ in USFPM vs. GFPM)

Source: Peter Ince

US Printing and Writing Paper US Printing and Writing Paper ConsumptionConsumption

U.S. Printing & Writing Paper Consumption & A1B Projection (MM tonnes)

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

P&W Paper FAO

US Printing and Writing Paper US Printing and Writing Paper ExportsExports

U.S. Net Trade in Printing & Wrinting Paper & A1B Projection (MM tonnes)

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

P & W Paper FAO

GFPM: Forest Stocks: A1BGFPM: Forest Stocks: A1B

Forest Stock, A1B

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060Year

Mill

ion

cubi

c m

eter

s

Africa North/Central America South America Asia Oceania Europe

Preliminary Global Modeling Preliminary Global Modeling SummarySummary

• There is projected to be great demand growth in Asia

• Projections show that much of the demand would be met by Latin America, North America, and Russia

• Bioenergy demand growth projected under the IPCC is a primary driver of the projections

Q & AQ & A

Uinta National Forest, Utah