agricultural resilience -- what do we know and what do we need to know sir gordon conway, professor...
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Agricultural resilience -- what do we know and what do we need to know
Sir Gordon Conway,Professor of International
DevelopmentAgriculture for Impact,
Imperial College, London
European Economic and Social Committee,
Brussels,March 4, 2013
Resilience –stresses and shocks
Africa’s Climate – Key Factors
Rising sea and land temperatures
Three Drivers:
Tropical convection The Monsoons El Niño – La Niña Oscillation
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/
El Niño – La Niño Oscillation
El Niño
La Niña
Stresses
Gradual build-up of adverse events
• Pest and disease attack• Land degradation• Growing pollution• Increasing temperatures• Rising sea levels• Greater or lesser rainfall• Growing indebtedness
UNDP Human Development Report, 2006
Climate change in Africa
More than 5% reduction in
length of growing period
Average Annual Max Temp > 300C
By 2050
Ericksen et al Mapping hotspots of climate change and food insecurity in the global tropics
Shocks
Usually dramatic, largely unexpected events
• Locust outbreaks• Disease outbreaks• Sudden floods• Major drought• Cyclones• Earthquakes• Tsunamis
• Financial collapse
Extreme Events
Hansen et al, 2012, NASA
Extreme Events
Russia Severe heatwave in 2010 Doubled Moscow’s death
rate 30% of grain crops lost to burning
Pakistan Worst floods in 80 years Killed over 1600 people Submerged 1/5th of the country, including
14% of Pakistan’s cultivated land
We have to be Innovative
Sustainable Intensification Increased yields or production
On the same amount of land With less water Less fertilisers Less pesticides Lower emissions of Greenhouse Gases
Increased natural capitaland environmental services
Greater resilience
Precision FarmingMicrodosing in Niger
Ecological Resilience
Use ecological principles to design agricultural practices
e.g. Agroforestry Integrated Pest Management Organic farming
Conservation Farming in Zambia
Genetic ResilienceModern Plant Breeding
Plants more nutritious carbohydrate and protein micronutrients (Vit A, iron, zinc)
Plants more resilient to pests and diseases climate change
Plants more efficient at converting sunlight to food taking up nitrogen from the atmosphere using water
Orange Fleshed Sweet Potatoes
Bananas Resistant to Wilt in Uganda
$500 million losses a year in Uganda
Academia Sinica provided sweet potato gene
Successfully transferred to bananas
In Ugandan field trials
Entirely government funded
Chaperone Genes for Drought Tolerance
Genes from Bacterial RNA that help to repair misfolded proteins resulting from stress
Plants rapidly recover
No yield penalty when stress free
In African field trials
Socio-Economic Resilience -
Markets
An Enabling Environment
Model of Alliance for a Green Revolution for Africa (AGRA)
Rural Economy
Farm Household in the local community
Seed Co
Agrodealer
Fertiliser Co
Banks formicrocredit
Local trader
Connectivity
Regional trade
National trade
Resilient People
Nwadjahane, Southern Mozambique
Increasingly frequent and severe droughts, floods, and storms
Fertile lowlands good crops but can be destroyed during flood Highlands good crops of maize and cassava during flood years, but less productive otherwise
http://www.geog.ox.ac.uk/research/landscape/projects/adaptiv...
Eduardo Mondlane
How do we build Resilient Livelihoods?
Conway, G. ‘One Billion Hungry: Can we feedthe world?’
www.canwefeedtheworld.org
Follow us on twitter: #1billionhungry
For more info on Ag4Impact, go to: www.ag4impact.org
Contact:[email protected]
Thank You