agricultural production systems simulator -...
TRANSCRIPT
APSIM - Agricultural Production Systems Simulator
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ahmad M. Manschadi
Outline
APSIM
Design
Concept
Capabilities
Testing and evaluation
APSIM demonstration
APSIM-Derived DSS Tools - WhopperCropper
Design, concept and capabilities of APSIM
APSIM development initiated in early 1990s
APSRU (Agricultutal Production Systems
Research Unit)
Investment: more than A$ 13 million
… the soil provides a central focus, crops,
seasons and managers come and go,
finding the soil in one state and leaving it
in another …….
Design, concept and capabilities of APSIM
APSIM – A farming systems modelling framework
Crops
System Control
Soil
SWIM
Manager
ReportClock
SoilWat
SoilN
SoilPH
SoilP
ResidueEconomics
Fertiliz
Irrigate
Canopy Met
Erosion
Other Crops
Maize
Sorg
Legume
Wheat
New Module
Manure
Management
E
N
G
I
N
E
Design, concept and capabilities of APSIM
APSIM simulates
mechanistic growth of crops, pastures, trees, weeds ...
key soil processes (water, solutes, N, P, carbon, pH)
surface residue dynamics & erosion
dryland or irrigated systems
range of management options (fertilisation, tillage, irrigation, …)
crop rotations + fallowing + mixtures
biotic stresses (parasitic weeds)
dynamics of populations (eg. weed seedbank)
short or long term effects
high software engineering standards
Design, concept and capabilities of APSIM
Systems simulation over time
Design, concept and capabilities of APSIM
Systems simulation across different scales
gene – crop – farm – catchment - region
Systems simulation of the cropping, novel agroforestry
systems and native woodland
Testing and evaluation
Example APSIM applications
• cereal-legume rotations (Probert et al.1995)
• ley farming systems (Carberry et al. 1996)
• intercropping systems (Carberry et al. 1996)
• alley farming systems (Nelson et al. 1998)
• drought policy formation (Keating & Meinke
1998)
• erosion impacts (Connolly et al. 1998)
• genetic trait identification (Robertson et al.
1999)
• seasonal climate forecasting (Hammer et al.
1999)
• on-farm trial analyses (Robertson et al. 1999)
• agribusiness value chain (Brennan et al., 2000)
• climate change impacts (Howden et al., 1999)
• tree windbreak systems (Carberry et al.
2001)
• deep drainage assessment (Keating et al.,
2001)
• soil acidification (Verburg et al., 2001)
• risk assessment of GMO (Smith et al. 2001)
• effluent irrigation (Brennan et al., 2002)
• agroforestry systems (Huth et al., 2002)
• crop-weed competition (Keating et al. 1999)
• parasitic weeds Orobanche (Manschadi et al. ,
2004)
• smallholder farming systems (Carberry,
2004)
Testing and evaluation
…crop growth & development
G RAIN D W
0
2 0 0 0
4 0 0 0
6 0 0 0
8 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0
1 2 0 0 0
1 4 0 0 0
0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 4 0 1 6 0 1 8 0 2 0 0
yie ld
g ra in_wt
B IO M AS S
0
2 0 0 0
4 0 0 0
6 0 0 0
8 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 0
1 2 0 0 0
1 4 0 0 0
0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 4 0 1 6 0 1 8 0 2 0 0
To ta l D W
to t_b iom
b iom ass
LE AF NO
0
5 0
1 0 0
1 5 0
2 0 0
2 5 0
3 0 0
3 5 0
4 0 0
4 5 0
0 5 0 1 0 0 1 5 0 2 0 0
Lea f No .
Node No .
g reen_ leaves
node_no
lea f_no
LAI
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 4 0 1 6 0 1 8 0 2 0 0
tla i
la i
la i
s la i
Testing and evaluation
…yield of experimental crops
Cowpea
0
300
600
900
1200
0 300 600 900 1200
Pre
dic
ted
Chickpea
2
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
0 1000 2000 3000 4000
Observed
Mungbean
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0.0 500.0 1000.0 1500.0 2000.0 2500.0
Cowpea
0
300
600
900
1200
0 300 600 900 1200
Cowpea
0
300
600
900
1200
0 300 600 900 1200
Pre
dic
ted
Chickpea
2
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
0 1000 2000 3000 4000
Chickpea
2
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
0 1000 2000 3000 4000
Observed
Mungbean
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0.0 500.0 1000.0 1500.0 2000.0 2500.0
Mungbean
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0.0 500.0 1000.0 1500.0 2000.0 2500.0
Prediction regression line
n slope intercept R²wheat grain 43 1.07 -13.0 0.79
maize grain 111 0.98 ( 0.04) -5.5 ( 240) 0.85
chickpea grain 60 0.90 ( 0.07) 163 ( 172) 0.76
mungbean grain 47 1.07 ( 0.10) -27.2 ( 128) 0.72
cowpea grain 15 0.93 ( 0.08) -31.6 ( 34.6) 0.91
stylo biomass 63 0.84 ( 0.06) -131.7 ( 171) 0.78
Testing and evaluation
…yield of commercial crops
Final validation
y = 0.89x + 0.37
R2 = 0.72
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0
Observed
Pre
dic
ted
Vic Mallee / Wimmera
Wheat in 31 paddocks
Yields ranging from 1 – 5
t/ha
APSIM simulated >70%
variation
=> confidence to promote
as a commercial service in
2004
Testing and evaluation
…performance of wheat module
Grain Yield (kg/ha) - Plant Breeding
Experiments
0
2000
4000
6000
0 2000 4000 6000
Observed
Pre
dic
ted
R2 = 0.6 0
2000
4000
6000
0 2000 4000 6000
ObservedP
red
icte
d
Grain Yield (kg/ha) - Soil Fertility Studies
R2 = 0.8
Testing and evaluation
…performance of wheat module
0
2000
4000
6000
0 2000 4000 6000
Observed
Pre
dic
ted
Grain Yield (kg/ha) - Soil Fertility Studies
R2 = 0.8
500
1000
1500
500 700 900 1100 1300 1500
ObservedP
red
icte
d
Grain Yield (kg/ha) - Soil Fertility Studies
R2 = 0.0
Testing and evaluation
... yield responses to biotic stresses
sowing date
22-O
ct
8-Nov
22-N
ov
8-Dec
22-D
ec
8-Ja
n
22-J
an
faba b
ean p
od y
ield
(g m
-2)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
sowing date
22-O
ct
8-Nov
22-N
ov
8-Dec
22-D
ec
8-Ja
n
22-J
an
Observed pod yield (g m-2
)
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
Sim
ula
ted
po
d y
ield
(g
m-2
)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
OS0
OS1
OS2
OS3
(a)
Observed O. crenata biomass (g m-2
)
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
Sim
ula
ted
O.
cre
na
ta b
iom
ass
(g
m-2
)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
OS1
OS2
OS3
(b)
Testing and evaluation
… yield of crops in rotation
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
15-Jun-94 15-Jun-95 14-Jun-96 14-Jun-97
Avera
ge o
f Y
ield
Sorghum
Wheat
w _yield
s_yield
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
15-Jun-94 15-Jun-95 14-Jun-96 14-Jun-97
Avera
ge
of
LA
I
Sorghum
Wheat
w _lai
s_lai
0
500
1000
1500
2000
15-Jun-94 15-Jun-95 14-Jun-96 14-Jun-97
Avera
ge o
f B
iom
ass Sorghum
Wheat
w_biomass
s_biomass
Testing and evaluation
… soil water of crops in rotation
7/08/94
8/08/94
9/08/94
10/08/94
11/08/94
12/08/94
13/08/94
14/08/94
15/08/94
16/08/94
17/08/94
18/08/94
19/08/94
20/08/94
21/08/94
22/08/94
23/08/94
Total Soil Water (0.1-0.5 m)
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
mm
Total Soil Water (0.5-0.9 m)
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
mm
Total Soil Water (0.9-1.3 m)
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
mm
Total Soil Water (1.3-1.7 m)
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
mm
Wheat Sorghum
Testing and evaluation
… soil organic matter changes
Total Soil N (0-20 cm)
600
1000
1400
1800
2200
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
Years of cropping
Cropping 0 kg N/ha
Cropping 40 kg N/ha
Cropping 80 kg N/ha
Lucerne Rotation
Farming systems on a vertisol at Dalby, Qld.
Testing and evaluation
… tree growth
Control Fertilised
Irrigated Irrigated-Fertilised
0
30
60
90
1984 1985 1986 1987 1988
0
10
20
30
Stem
Branch
Foliage
0
30
60
90
1984 1985 1986 1987 1988
0
10
20
30
Stem
Branch
Foliage
0
30
60
90
1984 1985 1986 1987 1988
0
10
20
30
Stem
Branch
Foliage
0
30
60
90
1984 1985 1986 1987 1988
0
10
20
30
Stem
Branch
Foliage
Pierces’ Creek
near Canberra
(35o 21’S, 148o 56’E)
Annual Rainfall 790mm
10 y.o. Pinus Radiata
Stocking Rate 700/ha
Forest productivity in response to management
Further information:
Keating, Carberry, Hammer, Probert et al. (2003). "An overview of APSIM, a model
designed for farming systems simulation." European Journal of Agronomy 18(3-4):
267-288.
APSIM Homepage (https://www.apsim.info)