agricultural outlook- india - farmer.gov.in · 3 gva at basic prices (2011-12 prices) (growth rate...
TRANSCRIPT
Agricultural Outlook-
India Dr. K. L. Prasad
Principal Adviser
Directorate of Economics & Statistics, DAC&FW
Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare
Land Use Statistics
14%
77%
9%
Fallow Land
Net area sown
Land under misc. tree, groves, culturablewaste
Agricultural Land: 181.9 mh
23%
14%
4%
59%
Forest
Not available for cultivation
Permanent Pasture
Agricultural land
Reported area for land Use: 307.8 mh
3
GVA at basic prices (2011-12 prices)
(growth rate in per cent)
2013-
14
2014-
15
2015-
16
2016-
17
2017-
18
2018-
19
3rd RE 2nd RE 1st
RE
Provision
al
Estimate
s
Agriculture,
Forestry & Fishing 5.6 -0.2 0.6 6.3 5.0 2.9
Industry 3.8 7.0 9.6 7.7 5.9 6.9
Services 7.7 9.8 9.4 8.4 8.1 7.5
GVA at basic prices 6.1 7.2 8.0 7.9 6.9 6.6
GDP 6.4 7.4 8.0 8.2 7.2 6.8
Share in GVA
65.4 %
57.9%
21.8% 28.4%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
Crops Livestock Forestry and logging Fishing and aquaculture
Area under Rice
30.0
32.0
34.0
36.0
38.0
40.0
42.0
44.0
46.0
48.02
00
3-0
4
20
04
-05
20
05
-06
20
06
-07
20
07
-08
20
08
-09
20
09
-10
20
10
-11
20
11
-12
20
12
-13
20
13
-14
20
14
-15
20
15
-16
20
16
-17
20
17
-18
20
18
-19
*
Mill
ion
he
ctar
es
Area under Wheat
23.0
24.0
25.0
26.0
27.0
28.0
29.0
30.0
31.0
32.02
00
3-0
4
20
04
-05
20
05
-06
20
06
-07
20
07
-08
20
08
-09
20
09
-10
20
10
-11
20
11
-12
20
12
-13
20
13
-14
20
14
-15
20
15
-16
20
16
-17
20
17
-18
20
18
-19
*
Mill
ion
he
ctar
es
Area under Cereals
91.0
92.0
93.0
94.0
95.0
96.0
97.0
98.0
99.0
100.0
101.0
102.02
00
3-0
4
20
04
-05
20
05
-06
20
06
-07
20
07
-08
20
08
-09
20
09
-10
20
10
-11
20
11
-12
20
12
-13
20
13
-14
20
14
-15
20
15
-16
20
16
-17
20
17
-18
20
18
-19
*
mill
ion
he
ctar
es
Area Under Pulses
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.02
00
3-0
4
20
04
-05
20
05
-06
20
06
-07
20
07
-08
20
08
-09
20
09
-10
20
10
-11
20
11
-12
20
12
-13
20
13
-14
20
14
-15
20
15
-16
20
16
-17
20
17
-18
20
18
-19
*
Mill
ion
he
ctar
es
Area under Cereals and Pulses
15.0
17.0
19.0
21.0
23.0
25.0
27.0
29.0
31.0
92.0
93.0
94.0
95.0
96.0
97.0
98.0
99.0
100.0
101.0
102.02
00
3-0
4
20
04
-05
20
05
-06
20
06
-07
20
07
-08
20
08
-09
20
09
-10
20
10
-11
20
11
-12
20
12
-13
20
13
-14
20
14
-15
20
15
-16
20
16
-17
20
17
-18
20
18
-19
*
mill
ion
he
ctar
es
Cereals (LHS)
Pulses (RHS)
Area Under Cereals, Pulses and Coarse Cereals
15.0
17.0
19.0
21.0
23.0
25.0
27.0
29.0
31.0
33.0
92.0
93.0
94.0
95.0
96.0
97.0
98.0
99.0
100.0
101.0
102.02
00
3-0
4
20
04
-05
20
05
-06
20
06
-07
20
07
-08
20
08
-09
20
09
-10
20
10
-11
20
11
-12
20
12
-13
20
13
-14
20
14
-15
20
15
-16
20
16
-17
20
17
-18
20
18
-19
*
mill
ion
he
ctar
es
Cereals (LHS)
Pulses (RHS)
Coarse Cereals (RHS)
Area under Oilseeds
21.00
22.00
23.00
24.00
25.00
26.00
27.00
28.00
29.002
00
3-0
4
20
04
-05
20
05
-06
20
06
-07
20
07
-08
20
08
-09
20
09
-10
20
10
-11
20
11
-12
20
12
-13
20
13
-14
20
14
-15
20
15
-16
20
16
-17
20
17
-18
20
18
-19
*
mill
ion
he
ctar
es
Area under Sugarcane and cotton
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
100.00
110.00
120.00
130.00
140.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
55.002
00
3-0
4
20
04
-05
20
05
-06
20
06
-07
20
07
-08
20
08
-09
20
09
-10
20
10
-11
20
11
-12
20
12
-13
20
13
-14
20
14
-15
20
15
-16
20
16
-17
20
17
-18
20
18
-19
*
Lakh
he
ctar
es
sugarcane (LHS)
Cotton (RHS)
Nutri-cereals
8% Commercial
Crops 8%
Oilseeds 13%
Horticulture 13%
Pulses 15%
Paddy, Wheat & Maize 43%
Horticulture 33 %
Paddy, Wheat &Maize 25%
Others 14%
Commercial Crops 11%
Pulses 9%
Oilseeds 7%
Nutri-cereals 2%
Area Share Value Share
Wholesale Prices and MSP-Kharif crops
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000P
add
y
Jow
ar
Baj
ra
Rag
i
Mai
ze
Arh
ar(T
ur)
Mo
on
g
Ura
d
Gro
un
dn
ut
Sun
flo
we
rse
ed
Soya
bea
n(y
ello
w)
Sesa
mu
m
Nig
ers
eed
Co
tto
n
Wh
ole
sale
Pri
ces-
MSP
(R
s p
er
qu
inta
l)
2017-18
Wholesale Prices and MSP-Kharif crops
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000P
add
y
Jow
ar
Baj
ra
Rag
i
Mai
ze
Arh
ar(T
ur)
Mo
on
g
Ura
d
Gro
un
dn
ut
Sun
flo
we
rse
ed
Soya
bea
n(y
ello
w)
Nig
ers
eed
Co
tto
n
Wh
ole
sale
Pri
ces-
MSP
(R
s p
er
qu
inta
l)
2018-19
Wholesale Prices and MSP-Rabi Crops
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600W
hea
t
Bar
ley
Gra
m
Mas
ur(
len
til)
Rap
ese
ed
/Mu
star
d
Saff
low
er
Wh
ole
sale
Pri
ces-
MSP
(R
s p
er
qu
inta
l)
2018-19
Arhar (Tur)
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000A
ug-
17
Oct
-17
Dec
-17
Feb
-18
Ap
r-1
8
Jun
-18
Au
g-1
8
Oct
-18
Dec
-18
Feb
-19
Ap
r-1
9
Jun
-19
Au
g-1
9
Rs
pe
r q
uin
tal
MSP
WP
Moong
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
7500A
ug-
17
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-1
7
Dec
-17
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-1
8
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-1
8
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-1
8
Dec
-18
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Rs
pe
r q
uin
tal
MSP
WP
Food Outlook • According to latest projections by OECD and
FAO-food supply growth over the next ten years will modestly outpace demand growth
• Prices for most crops and livestock are expected to decline, in the order of one percent per year
Food Outlook
Source: AMIS
Outlook
2018-19 figures are as per 4th advance estimates
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.02
01
1-1
2
20
12
-13
20
13
-14
20
14
-15
20
15
-16
20
16
-17
20
17
-18
20
18
-19
20
19
-20
Tar
get
mill
ion
to
nn
es
Foodgrain Production
Final Est.
1st Adv. Est.
Outlook
2018-19 figures are as per 4th advance estimates
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.02
01
1-1
2
20
12
-13
20
13
-14
20
14
-15
20
15
-16
20
16
-17
20
17
-18
20
18
-19
20
19
-20
Tar
get
mill
ion
to
nn
es
Cereals production
Final Est.
1st Adv. Est.
Outlook
2018-19 figures are as per 4th advance estimates
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.02
01
1-1
2
20
12
-13
20
13
-14
20
14
-15
20
15
-16
20
16
-17
20
17
-18
20
18
-19
20
19
-20
Tar
get
mill
ion
to
nn
es
Pulses production
Final Est.
1st Adv. Est.
Outlook
2018-19 figures are as per 4th advance estimates
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.02
01
1-1
2
20
12
-13
20
13
-14
20
14
-15
20
15
-16
20
16
-17
20
17
-18
20
18
-19
20
19
-20
Tar
get
mill
ion
to
nn
es
Oilseeds Production
Final Est.
1st Adv. Est.
Outlook
2018-19 figures are as per 4th advance estimates
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.02
01
1-1
2
20
12
-13
20
13
-14
20
14
-15
20
15
-16
20
16
-17
20
17
-18
20
18
-19
20
19
-20
Tar
get
lakh
bal
es
Cotton Production
Final Est.
1st Adv. Est.
Outlook
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
450.02
01
1-1
2
20
12
-13
20
13
-14
20
14
-15
20
15
-16
20
16
-17
20
17
-18
20
18
-19
20
19
-20
Tar
get
mill
ion
to
nn
es
Sugarcane Production
Final Est.
1st Adv. Est.
Cereals
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
4001
95
0-5
1
19
60
-61
19
70
-71
19
80
-81
19
90
-91
20
00
-01
20
10
-11
20
11
-12
20
12
-13
20
13
-14
20
14
-15
20
15
-16
20
16
-17
20
17
-18
20
18
-19
20
20
-21
20
21
-22
20
28
-29
20
29
-30
20
32
-33
mill
ion
to
nn
es
production demand projection supply projection
Excess Supply
Pulses
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
19
50
-51
19
60
-61
19
70
-71
19
80
-81
19
90
-91
20
00
-01
20
10
-11
20
11
-12
20
12
-13
20
13
-14
20
14
-15
20
15
-16
20
16
-17
20
17
-18
20
18
-19
20
20
-21
20
21
-22
20
28
-29
20
29
-30
20
32
-33
mill
ion
to
nn
es
production demand projection supply projection
Projections estimates are taken from NITI Aayog
shortfall
Foodgrains
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
19
50
-51
19
60
-61
19
70
-71
19
80
-81
19
90
-91
20
00
-01
20
10
-11
20
11
-12
20
12
-13
20
13
-14
20
14
-15
20
15
-16
20
16
-17
20
17
-18
20
18
-19
20
20
-21
20
21
-22
20
28
-29
20
29
-30
20
32
-33
mill
ion
to
nn
es
production demand projection supply projection
Projections estimates are taken from NITI Aayog
Excess Supply
Oilseeds
0
20
40
60
80
100
1201
95
0-5
1
19
60
-61
19
70
-71
19
80
-81
19
90
-91
20
00
-01
20
10
-11
20
11
-12
20
12
-13
20
13
-14
20
14
-15
20
15
-16
20
16
-17
20
17
-18
20
18
-19
20
20
-21
20
21
-22
20
28
-29
20
29
-30
20
32
-33
mill
ion
to
nn
es
production demand projection supply projection
shortfall
Projections estimates are taken from NITI Aayog
Thank You
31