agricultural commodities -...

Agricultural commodities

Research by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

JUNE QUARTER 2012

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Cataloguing data ABARES 2012, Agricultural commodities: June quarter 2012, vol. 2 no. 2, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra.

ISSN 189-5619 (printed) ISSN 189-5627 (online) ISBN 978-1-74323-025-1 (printed) ISBN 978-1-74323-024-4 (online) ABARES project 43006

Internet Agricultural commodities: June quarter 2012 is available at: daff.gov.au/abares/publications.

Contact Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES)

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3

DairyOutlook to 2016–17

David Barrett

ABARESAgricultural commodities – vol. 2 no. 2 • June quarter 2012

Contents

Economic overview 7

Agriculture 25

Crops

Wheat 26

Coarse grains 33

Oilseeds 42

Sugar 51

Cotton 58

Wine and wine grapes 66

Livestock

Beef and veal 76

Sheep meat 84

Wool 92

Dairy 97

Fisheries 103

Boxes

Malaysia–Australia Free Trade Agreement 19

Palm oil 45

Turkish cotton industry 60

Australia’s market share in the UK and US wine markets 72

Lean Finely Textured Beef and implications for Australian beef exports to the United States 80

Competition in Australia’s live sheep export markets 88

Statistical tables 109

Report extracts 151

ABARES contacts 156

4 ABARESAgricultural commodities – vol. 2 no. 2 • June quarter 2012

ABARES is delivering commodity forecasts, research and analysis directly to rural and regional Australia again in 2012.

Promoting industry productivity, community vitality and environmental sustainability, the 2012 conferences will balance national and regional perspectives; focus on the future; and emphasise agricultural, fisheries and forestry strategies that work in a context of economic volatility and climatic variability.

ABARES invites collaboration from regional, state and national agencies to focus on industries and issues relevant to each region. Delegates from businesses, government, and the community will discuss industry trends, access forecasts and other information, make new contacts in their community and be exposed to new ideas while gaining an understanding of global issues that affect their region.

2012 locations and datesSouth Australia Berri 16 May

Northern Territory Alice Springs 13 June

Western Australia Margaret River 5 July

Victoria Horsham 25 July

New South Wales Bega 29 August

Tasmania Burnie 26 September

Queensland Toowoomba 25 October

Regional Outlook conferences 2012

For enquiries and to register your interest contact

Maree Finnegan Event ManagerPhone +61 2 6272 2260Email [email protected]

daff.gov.au/abares/regional

Economic overview


Economic overviewPatrick Hamshere and Neil Thompson

• Following growth of 3.9 per cent in 2011, world economic growth is assumed to moderate to 3.5 per cent in 2012, before improving to 4 per cent in 2013.

• Emerging economies, particularly China and India, are expected to remain the main drivers of world economic growth.

• Economic growth in the OECD is expected to be subdued, largely reflecting an expected slowdown in many European economies and weak growth in consumer demand in the United States and Japan.

• There remains some risk of European economies deteriorating further which could have wider global impacts.

Global economic growth to moderate in 2012The pace of global economic growth has weakened since the beginning of 2012. Although activity in emerging economies, particularly in Asia, continues to underpin world economic growth, considerable uncertainty remains in the OECD economic outlook, especially over implementation and likely impact of austerity measures in the euro area.

World economic growth

%

a ABARES assumption.

–1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2010 2013a2007200420011998

9

Economic overview


Private sector demand across the OECD is assumed to remain weak in the short term. Continued weakness in regional housing and labour markets are expected to be key constraints to any significant recovery in consumer spending. In addition, volatility in global financial markets has increased, following renewed uncertainty surrounding implementation of austerity measures in some European countries with newly elected governments. In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts, world economic growth is assumed to average 3.5 per cent in 2012, before improving to around 4 per cent in 2013. For the OECD region as a whole, economic growth is assumed to be around 1.6 per cent in 2012, before strengthening modestly to 2.1 per cent in 2013. There remains a risk of deterioration in the economic performance of some western European economies which could have flow-on effects to growth prospects in other countries.

For emerging economies, the short-term outlook remains positive, although an easing of economic growth is expected. Export performance in many developing economies is expected to moderate in response to weaker growth in export demand from developed economies. Countries that have strong trade links with Western Europe, such as the Russian Federation, Ukraine and those in Eastern Europe and South-East Asia, will be particularly vulnerable to the spillover effects of weaker economic growth in that region. For developing economies as a whole, economic growth is assumed to average 5.9 per cent in 2012 and 6.4 per cent in 2013, compared with 6.4 per cent in 2011.

Regional economic growth

%

world

Russian Federation,Ukraine, Eastern Europe

Latin America

non-OECD Asia

OECD

20112012a

2013a

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8


10

Economic overview


Key macroeconomic assumptions

World 2010 2011 2012 a 2013 aWorld 2010 2011 2012 a 2013 a

E i thEconomic growthOECD % 3.2 1.6 1.6 2.1OECD % 3.2 1.6 1.6 2.1United States % 3.0 1.7 2.2 2.6United States % 3.0 1.7 2.2 2.6Japan % 4 4 – 0 7 2 0 1 6Japan % 4.4 – 0.7 2.0 1.6Western Europe % 2 0 1 5 0 2 1 1Western Europe % 2.0 1.5 0.2 1.1

Germany % 3 7 3 0 1 2 1 8– Germany % 3.7 3.0 1.2 1.8France % 1 7 1 7 0 6 1 2– France % 1.7 1.7 0.6 1.2U i d Ki d 2 1 0 7 0 7 2 0– United Kingdom % 2.1 0.7 0.7 2.0g

– Italy % 1.8 0.4 – 1.8 – 0.2 Italy % 1.8 0.4 1.8 0.2Korea, Rep. of % 6.3 3.6 3.2 4.0Korea, Rep. of % 6.3 3.6 3.2 4.0New Zealand % 1.2 1.4 2.3 3.2New Zealand % 1.2 1.4 2.3 3.2

D l i t i % 8 0 6 4 5 9 6 4Developing countries % 8.0 6.4 5.9 6.4OECD A i 9 8 2 9– non-OECD Asia % 9.7 7.8 7.2 7.9

South-East Asia b % 7.0 4.5 5.3 5.8 China c % 10.4 9.2 8.5 8.7 China c Chinese Taipei % 10.7 4.0 2.9 4.5C ese a pe 0. .0 .9 .5 Singapore % 14.8 4.9 3.2 4.6 Singapore % 14.8 4.9 3.2 4.6

India % 8.4 7.5 6.1 7.5 India % 8.4 7.5 6.1 7.5– Latin America % 6.2 4.5 3.7 4.0– Latin America % 6.2 4.5 3.7 4.0Russian Federation % 4 3 4 3 3 7 3 9Russian Federation % 4.3 4.3 3.7 3.9Ukraine % 4 1 5 2 3 5 3 7Ukraine % 4.1 5.2 3.5 3.7Eastern Europe % 4 5 5 3 1 7 2 8Eastern Europe % 4.5 5.3 1.7 2.8W ld d % 5 3 3 9 3 5 4 0World d % 5.3 3.9 3.5 4.0

flInflation

United States % 1.6 3.2 2.1 1.9United States % 1.6 3.2 2.1 1.9Interest ratesInterest ratesUS prime rate e % 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3US prime rate e % 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3

2009 2010 2011 2012Australia –10 –11 –12 a –13 aAustralia 10 11 12 a 13 a

Economic growth % 2 3 1 9 3 0 3 25Economic growth % 2.3 1.9 3.0 3.25I fl i % 2 3 3 1 2 4 2 5Inflation % 2.3 3.1 2.4 2.5Interest rates g % 6.0 6.6 6.2 5.6g

Australian exchange ratesAustralian exchange ratesUS$/A$ 0 88 0 99 1 03 1 00US$/A$ 0.88 0.99 1.03 1.00TWI for A$ h 69 74 76 74TWI for A$ h 69 74 76 74

a ABARES assumption. b Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. c Excludes Hong Kong. d Weighted a ABARES assumption. b Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. c Excludes Hong Kong. d Weighted using 2011 purchasing-power-parity (PPP) valuation of country gross domestic product by the International a ABARES assumption. b Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. c Excludes Hong Kong. d Weighted using 2011 purchasing-power-parity (PPP) valuation of country gross domestic product by the International Monetary Fund. e Commercial bank prime lending rates in the United States. g Large business weighted average

a ABARES assumption. b Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. c Excludes Hong Kong. d Weighted using 2011 purchasing-power-parity (PPP) valuation of country gross domestic product by the International Monetary Fund. e Commercial bank prime lending rates in the United States. g Large business weighted average variable rate on credit outstanding. h Base: May 1970 = 100.

g p g p p y ( ) y g p yMonetary Fund. e Commercial bank prime lending rates in the United States. g Large business weighted average variable rate on credit outstanding. h Base: May 1970 = 100.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Monetary Fund; Organisation for Economic

f

y p g g g g gvariable rate on credit outstanding. h Base: May 1970 = 100.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Monetary Fund; Organisation for Economic

f

y p g g g g gvariable rate on credit outstanding. h Base: May 1970 = 100.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Monetary Fund; Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development; Reserve Bank of AustraliaSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Monetary Fund; Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development; Reserve Bank of Australia

11

Economic overview


Economic prospects in Australia’s major export markets

United StatesIn the United States, real gross domestic product expanded at a year-on-year rate of 2 per cent in the March quarter 2012, following growth of 1.6 per cent in the December quarter 2011. The main contributors to growth in the March quarter were consumer spending and private investment, which were partially offset by a decline in government spending.

Partial indicators released recently suggest that private demand, in particular consumer spending (which accounts for around 70 per cent of gross domestic product), is likely to improve only gradually. Private consumption expenditure, in real terms, rose at a year-on-year rate of 2.1 per cent in April 2012, compared with 1.8 per cent in March and 1.9 per cent in February.

The US labour market has continued to show signs of improvement since the beginning of 2012. In the first five months of 2012, 823 000 jobs were created, driven by job growth in education and health services, professional and business services, and manufacturing industries. However, jobs gains have been largely offset by an increase in the number of people looking for work. Consequently, the unemployment rate has remained largely unchanged since the beginning of the year, recording 8.2 per cent in May, compared with 8.3 per cent in January.

Growth in industrial production has been strong since the beginning of 2012, signalling that manufacturing activity will remain a source of growth in the short term. The index of industrial production increased year-on-year by 4.3 per cent in the March quarter 2012, following growth of 4 per cent in the December quarter and 3.3 per cent in the September quarter 2011. Recent improvements in industrial production largely reflect increased production of motor vehicles and parts, which grew at a year-on-year rate of 17.9 per cent in the March quarter 2012.

US consumer spending and confidence

% index1985=100

Consumer spendinggrowth

Consumer con�dence(right axis)

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Apr2012

Jan2012

Oct2011

Jul2011

Apr2011

Jan2011

12

Economic overview


In the short term, economic activity in the United States is assumed to strengthen gradually. For 2012 as a whole, economic growth is assumed to average 2.2 per cent. In 2013, improvements in private sector activity are expected to more than offset the adverse effect of reduced government sector spending on general economic activity, with overall economic growth assumed to average 2.6 per cent for the year as a whole.

ChinaReflecting the adverse effects of weaker growth in export demand, economic growth in China has moderated in recent months. Real gross domestic product grew at a year-on-year rate of 8.1 per cent in the March quarter 2012, after expanding 8.9 per cent in the December quarter and 9.1 per cent in the September quarter 2011.

OECD economic growth


Western EuropeJapanUnited States

%–1.0

–0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2013a2012a2011

US jobs created in the first five months of 2012, by sector

–50 50 100 150 200 250

Mining and logging

Construction

Manufacturing

Trade, transportation and utilities

Information

Financial activities

Professional and business services

Education and health services

Leisure and hospitality

Other services

Government

0’000

13

Economic overview


China’s export growth eased in the March quarter 2012 to a year-on-year rate of 7.6 per cent. This compares with growth of 14.3 per cent in the December quarter, and more than 20 per cent for 2011 as a whole.

In contrast, growth in domestic demand has remained relatively strong, with investment in fixed assets growing at a year-on-year rate of around 21 per cent in the March quarter 2012, down slightly from 23.8 per cent achieved for 2011 as a whole. Growth in retail sales eased somewhat but continued to remain firm, increasing at a year-on-year rate of 14.1 per cent in April 2012, compared with 15.2 per cent in March and 14.7 per cent in February.

Consumer price inflation eased in recent months, rising at a year-on-year rate of 3 per cent in May 2012, following 3.4 per cent in April and 3.6 per cent in March. Increases in food prices continued to drive inflation, contributing around 2 percentage points to the overall inflation rate in May 2012. Easing inflationary pressures in China are expected to provide room for more accommodative monetary policy in the short term.

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts, economic growth in China is assumed to remain relatively robust at an average rate of 8.5 per cent in 2012. In 2013, economic growth is assumed to strengthen slightly to 8.7 per cent, in line with an expected improvement in world economic growth.

JapanEconomic activity in Japan expanded at a year-on-year rate of 2.8 per cent in the March quarter 2012, compared with declines of 0.6 per cent in the December quarter and 0.5 per cent in the September quarter 2011. The increased pace of economic activity largely reflects improvements in domestic demand, supported by reconstruction after the earthquakes and tsunami in early 2011.

Private sector demand grew by 3.7 per cent year-on-year in the March quarter 2012, compared with 0.3 per cent in the December quarter and a decline of 0.4 per cent in the September quarter 2011. The increase in private sector demand was supported by a pickup in household spending, as consumer confidence and labour market conditions improved. Public sector investment also contributed to stronger economic activity, with a year-on-year increase of 9.3 per cent in the March quarter driven by reconstruction spending.

Recent trade for China

Exports

US$b

Imports

50

100

150

200

Mar2012

Dec2011

Sep2011

Jun2011

Mar2011

Dec2010

Sep2010

Jun2010

Mar2010

14

Economic overview


Partial indicators released recently suggest that exports and industrial production also increased. Exports, in value terms, increased at a year-on-year rate of 8 per cent in April 2012, the fastest pace in 15 months, compared with a rise of 6 per cent in March and a decline of 3 per cent in February. Industrial production increased at a year-on-year rate of 13 per cent in April 2012, following growth of 14 per cent in March and 2 per cent in February. Recent improvements in industrial production and exports largely reflect a pickup in export demand for motor vehicles from the United States.

Despite recent improvements, uncertainty remains in the outlook for Japanese exports and hence factory production. Economic weakness in many European economies and the high value of the Japanese yen could adversely affect demand for Japanese exports, leading to a slowdown in factory production.

Nevertheless, domestic demand is likely to strengthen further in coming quarters as reconstruction continues. For 2012 as a whole, economic growth in Japan is assumed to average around 2 per cent, before easing to 1.6 per cent in 2013, as declines in reconstruction spending moderate growth in domestic demand.

Western EuropeEconomic activity in Western Europe weakened in the March quarter 2012, though growth varied significantly among the regional economies. In Germany, economic activity increased at a year-on-year rate of 1.2 per cent in the March quarter, while in Italy, the economy contracted at a year-on-year rate of 1.3 per cent.

The weak pace of economic activity largely reflects decreased private sector demand, while reduced public sector spending also contributed to the decline. In Germany, growth in consumer spending remained weak at 0.8 per cent year-on-year in both the March quarter 2012 and the December quarter 2011. In France, consumer spending declined by 0.3 per cent year-on-year in the March quarter 2012, following a decline of 0.5 per cent in the December quarter 2011.

Japan industrial production and exports

index2005=100

30

60

90

120

150 ExportsIndustrial production

Apr2012

Oct2011

Apr2011

Oct2010

Apr2010

Oct2009

Apr2009

15

Economic overview


Unemployment remained relatively high across Western Europe. In France, the unemployment rate was 10.2 per cent in April 2012 compared with 10 per cent in January. In Italy, the unemployment rate increased to 10.2 per cent in April compared with 9.8 per cent in February and 9.5 per cent in January 2012. For the euro area as a whole, the unemployment rate was 11 per cent in April, up from 10.8 per cent in January.

Private consumption and business spending are unlikely to strengthen significantly in the short term. In addition, expected declines in public spending are likely to hold back overall economic growth, as governments reduce public debt levels and implement fiscal consolidation.

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts, economic activity in Western Europe is assumed to record little growth in 2012. A gradual recovery in regional economic activity is assumed to begin in 2013, with economic growth assumed to average 1.1 per cent for the year as a whole. Considerable uncertainty surrounds implementation of austerity measures in some regional economies, resulting from increased political pressure. On the other hand, financial market concerns about sustainability of public sector debt levels means few alternatives are available to affected governments that would not result in greater hardship for their economies.

Non-OECD AsiaEconomic growth in non-OECD Asia (excluding Japan and the Republic of Korea) moderated in early 2012. For example, in Singapore, economic activity expanded at a year-on-year rate of 1.6 per cent in the March quarter 2012, down from 3.6 per cent in the December quarter 2011. In Malaysia, the economy grew by 4.7 per cent year-on-year in the March quarter 2012 following growth of 5.2 per cent in the December quarter 2011.

For many regional economies, the easing of economic growth largely reflects the adverse impacts of slower export growth. Because exports account for a relatively large share of economic activity in many Asian economies, declining export growth can adversely affect general economic activity.

Unemployment rates (seasonally adjusted) in the euro area

%

2

4

6

8

10

12 TotalFranceItalyUnited KingdomGermany

Mar2012

Nov2011

Jul2011

Mar2011

Nov2010

Jul2010

Mar2010

Nov2009

Jul2009

Mar2009

Nov2008

16

Economic overview


Reflecting easing economic growth, inflationary pressures also eased in some regional economies. For example, in Malaysia, inflation slowed to a year-on-year rate of 1.9 per cent in April 2012, compared with 2.7 per cent in January. In Thailand, inflation slowed to 2.5 per cent year-on-year in April, compared with 3.4 per cent in January.

Easing of inflationary pressures may allow implementation of more accommodative monetary conditions in regional economies to support domestic demand. For non-OECD Asia as a whole, economic growth is assumed to average 7.2 per cent in 2012 and 7.9 per cent in 2013.

Economic prospects in AustraliaIn Australia, real gross domestic product rose at a year-on-year rate of 4.3 per cent in the March quarter 2012, after expanding by 2.5 per cent in the December quarter 2011. In coming quarters, domestic demand is expected to grow at a relatively solid pace, driven largely by mining related activity. Growth outside the mining sector could remain below trend, largely reflecting the effects of weak retail spending and reduced government expenditure.

Economic growth in Australia is assumed to average 3.25 per cent in 2012–13, following an estimated rise of 3 per cent in 2011–12.

InflationInflationary pressures in Australia have eased in recent quarters. The consumer price index rose year-on-year by 1.6 per cent in the March quarter 2012, compared with 3.1 per cent in the December quarter and 3.5 per cent in the September quarter 2011.

One factor contributing to the lower inflation rate was lower prices for fruit, which declined by 30 per cent year-on-year in the March quarter. Banana prices, for example, recorded a year-on-year decline of around 60 per cent in the March quarter 2012. This reflected the impact on banana prices of tropical cyclone Yasi in 2011. In contrast, year-on-year increases were recorded in the March quarter for pharmaceutical products, secondary education, automotive fuel, medical and hospital services, tertiary education and rents.

Economic growth in Asia

2013a

2012a

2011

Chinese Taipei

Korea,Republic of

India

China

Singapore

Vietnam

Philippines

Malaysia

Indonesia

Thailand

%

2

4

6

8

10


17

Economic overview


In 2012–13, the inflation rate is assumed to average 2.5 per cent, largely unchanged from an estimated 2.4 per cent increase in 2011–12.

Australian exchange rateOver the past few months, there has been some volatility in the movement of the Australian dollar, especially against the US dollar. The Australian dollar depreciated from around US108 cents in late February 2012 to around US96 cents in early June, before appreciating to around US99 cents in mid-June. For 2011–12 as a whole, the Australian dollar is estimated to average around US103 cents, compared with an average of US99 cents in 2010–11.

To a large extent, the recent depreciation of the Australian dollar reflects increased concerns in financial markets about the world economic outlook, and hence, the outlook for commodity demand and prices, especially mineral resources. In particular, increased uncertainty surrounding economic growth in the euro area and an easing of economic growth in China and some other Asian economies poses a downside risk to the outlook for movements in Australia’s terms of trade.

A number of factors are likely to provide support for the value of the Australian dollar. If the world economy gradually strengthens over the course of 2012–13, as assumed here, this should restore financial market confidence toward world demand for mineral resources and see increases in the value of the Australian dollar. In addition, sizable differences remain in interest rates between Australia and major world economies, which favours international investors’ holdings of Australian dollar denominated assets. Prime lending rates in Australia were around 6 per cent in early June, compared with 3.25 per cent in the United States and 1.5 per cent in Japan.

For 2012–13 as a whole, the Australian dollar is assumed to average around parity against the US dollar. On a trade-weighted basis, the Australian dollar is assumed to average around TWI 74 for the year.

While the value of the Australian dollar in 2012–13 is assumed to remain relatively high against the US dollar, considerable uncertainty remains in the outlook for the Australian exchange rate. Moreover, some volatility in the Australian exchange rate is expected because changes in financial market sentiment can influence movements

Australian economic indicators

Interest rate bIn�ation rateEconomic growth

2012–13a2011–12a2010–11%

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

a ABARES assumption. b Large business weighted average variable rate on credit outstanding.

18

Economic overview


in the Australian dollar. For example, when reviewing the past year, the Australian dollar was as low as US95 cents in October 2011 and as high as US110 cents in August 2011. Consequently, it remains important for primary producers and exporters to manage the risks associated with fluctuations in the Australian exchange rate.

Outlook for Australian agricultural, fisheries and forestry exportsThe total volume of farm production is forecast to decline by 0.7 per cent in 2012–13, following an estimated increase of 4.6 per cent in 2011–12, with this mainly reflecting an expected decline in crop production.

The index of crop production is forecast to fall by around 4 per cent in 2012–13, mainly reflecting a forecast decline in winter crop production from a record high in 2011–12.

The volume of livestock production is forecast to increase by 3.4 per cent in 2012–13, mainly reflecting an increase in lamb turn-off rates and increased production of wool and dairy products.

The index of unit export returns for Australian farm commodities, in aggregate, is forecast to decline by 6.9 per cent in 2012–13, after remaining largely unchanged in 2011–12. Lower world prices for wheat, rice, soybeans, cotton, wool, and dairy products are expected to more than offset forecast price rises for beef and veal.

Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to decline by 4.5 per cent in 2012–13 to around $34.4 billion, following an estimated increase of 11.2 per cent in 2011–12 to $36 billion. Farm commodities for which export earnings are forecast to be lower in 2012–13 include wheat (5 per cent), barley (33 per cent), canola (9 per cent), rice (5 per cent), grain sorghum (14 per cent), raw cotton (10 per cent) and sugar (10 per cent). Partially offsetting these declines is a forecast increase in export earnings for wine (2 per cent), sheep meat (11 per cent) and chickpeas (13 per cent).

Australian exchange rate

US$/A$

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2


2012–13a

2009–10

2006–07

2003–04

2000–01

1997–98

19

Economic overview


Export earnings for crops are forecast to be $19.5 billion in 2012–13, compared with an estimated $21 billion in 2011–12. The export value of livestock and livestock products is forecast to remain largely unchanged at around $15 billion in 2012–13.

For fisheries products, export earnings are forecast to be around $1.3 billion in 2012–13, largely unchanged from the estimated value in 2011–12. Export earnings for forest products are forecast to increase by around 3.4 per cent to $2.4 billion in 2012–13.

In total, the value of Australian agricultural, fisheries and forestry exports is forecast to be around $38.1 billion in 2012–13, a decline of around 4 per cent from an estimated $39.6 billion in 2011–12.

Malaysia–Australia Free Trade Agreement

The Agreement

The Malaysia–Australia Free Trade Agreement (MAFTA) was signed on 22 May 2012 and will come into effect once Australia and Malaysia have completed their domestic ratification procedures. The earliest the agreement could take effect is 1 January 2013.

Malaysia’s agricultural imports

Malaysia’s total agricultural imports were around US$16.5 billion in 2011. Major agricultural imports were sugar (valued at US$970 million in 2011), maize (US$933 million), dairy products (US$801 million) and vegetables (US$735 million). Other main agricultural imports included rice, cotton, oilseeds and wheat, which were each valued at more than US$400 million. Imports of many agricultural commodities, such as sugar, maize, dairy products and vegetables, have risen significantly in recent years, reflecting strong income growth and changing diets.

Malaysia’s major agricultural imports in 2011

US$m

Source: UN Comtrade

200

400

600

800

1000

Live cattle

Sheep meat

Fruits

Beef

Wheat

Oilseeds

Cotton

Rice

Vegetables

Dairy

Maize

Sugar

continued...

20

Economic overview


Malaysia–Australia Free Trade Agreement continued

Australia is a major source of food imports

Between 1995 and 2006, Australia was the leading supplier of imported agricultural commodities to Malaysia. Since 2006, Malaysia’s imports of fresh vegetables, maize, rice and dairy products from Thailand, the European Union, China and the United States have increased significantly, causing Australia’s import share to decline.

Key agricultural imports from Australia are wheat (valued at US$247 million in 2011), dairy products (US$92 million), beef (US$70 million) and sugar (US$68 million). Other Malaysian agricultural imports important to Australia included sheep meat and vegetables, each valued at more than US$40 million.

Malaysia’s total agricultural imports, by major sources

201120061995

2011US$m

Source: UN Comtrade

300

600

900

1200

1500

AustraliaUnitedStates

ChinaEuropeanUnion

Thailand

continued...

Malaysia’s total imports of sugar, maize, dairy products and vegetables

2011–12US$/t

Dairy

MaizeRaw sugar, caneVegetables

20112007200319991995

Source: UN Comtrade

200

400

600

800

1000

21

Economic overview



Malaysia does not produce wheat and is therefore dependent on imports to meet domestic consumption. In 2011, total Malaysian wheat imports were worth around US$438 million, with more than 55 per cent sourced from Australia. The remaining wheat imports came principally from the United States.

In 2011, New Zealand was the largest supplier of dairy products to Malaysia, followed by the United States and Australia. In 2011, Malaysia imported US$92 million worth of dairy products from Australia. Imports of milk powder and cream totalled US$35 million, while imports of cheese amounted to almost US$30 million and butter imports to around US$18 million.

Malaysia imported around US$390 million of beef in 2011. India was the largest supplier of beef (which can also include buffalo meat) to Malaysia in that year (US$293 million), followed by Australia (US$70 million). Beef imported from Australia, New Zealand and the United States is generally of higher quality than Indian beef, and is therefore used in high-end foodservice outlets and restaurants.

In Malaysia, cultivation of sugar cane is small and almost all of Malaysia’s domestic demand is met by imports. In 2011, Malaysia’s sugar imports totalled US$970 million. Brazilian sugar accounted for over 65 per cent of the import share, while Thailand accounted for 19 per cent and Australia 6 per cent.

Outcomes from MAFTA

MAFTA delivers important improvements to market access for Australia for a range of agricultural portfolio industries. These include:

• annual increases in import volumes of liquid milk at zero tariff

• elimination of all tariffs on rice from 2026

• phase-out of tariffs on tropical fruit (including melons, mangoes, pineapples and longans) by 2016.

continued...

Malaysia’s major agricultural imports sourced from Australia in 2011

US$m

Source: UN Comtrade

50

100

150

200

250

Live cattle

Fruits

Wool

Vegetables

Sheep meat

Sugar

Beef

Dairy

Wheat

22

Economic overview



The agreement also provides for improvements in market access for a number of agricultural products, including some meat products (such as pork), through improved quotas.

MAFTA builds on outcomes already achieved under the ASEAN–Australia–New Zealand Free Trade Agreement (AANZFTA), which was signed in 2009. AANZFTA included:

• binding of tariff rates at zero for beef, sheep and goat meat

• removal of tariffs for a number of dairy products (such as cheese, butter and yoghurt), either on entry into force or by 2011.

Australia has already committed to removal of tariffs on imports of agricultural products under AANZFTA.

Specific product gains

Dairy

Under MAFTA, Australian dairy exporters will be able to access additional quota volumes for liquid milk. These in-quota exports will be subject to zero tariffs, compared with 20 per cent for out-of-quota exports. Importantly, quota volumes for liquid milk will continue to grow in perpetuity, at annual rates of between 3 per cent and 9 per cent. Malaysia also agreed to significantly liberalise administration of the tariff rate quotas for liquid milk. Malaysia will apply an open licensing system to 35 per cent of the volume of two of the three liquid milk tariff rate quotas. Under MAFTA, restrictions will be removed on who can apply for a license and whether the product is imported in bulk or in retail packs. This more open licensing system will support import of higher value retail products from Australia and is an important improvement on the AANZFTA outcome.

Rice

MAFTA provides open access arrangements for Australian rice from 2023, such that there will be no restriction on who can import rice into Malaysia; import licenses will be issued on a first come, first served basis; and there will be no restriction on whether the product is imported in bulk or in retail packs. From 2026, all tariffs on rice will be eliminated. These results for the rice industry are an improvement on the AANZFTA. Both the tariff and import licensing commitments on rice are important given that Malaysia, like many other Asian countries, normally excludes rice from commitments in free trade agreements.

Wine

While wine is excluded from upfront tariff commitments, MAFTA has secured a commitment from Malaysia that Australian wine exporters will receive any reduction or elimination of tariff that Malaysia provides any other country on wine imports. This is an improvement on the AANZFTA.

23

Economic overview


Major indicators of Australia’s agriculture and natural resources based sectors

change from change from 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 previous year2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 previous year

08 09 10 11 s 12 f 13 f 2011 12 2012 13–08 –09 –10 –11 s –12 f –13 f 2011–12 2012–13% %% %

Exchange rate US$/A$ 0.90 0.75 0.88 0.99 1.03 1.00 4.0 – 2.9Exchange rate US$/A$ 0.90 0.75 0.88 0.99 1.03 1.00 4.0 2.9

Unit returns aUnit returns a Farm index 100 0 100 6 88 7 98 2 97 6 90 8 0 6 7 0Farm index 100.0 100.6 88.7 98.2 97.6 90.8 – 0.6 – 7.0

Value of exports A$m 31 384 36 020 32 057 36 129 39 634 38 123 9.7 – 3.8Value of exports A$m 31 384 36 020 32 057 36 129 39 634 38 123 9.7 3.8Farm A$m 27 570 32 148 28 550 32 406 36 034 34 425 11.2 – 4.5Farm A$m 27 570 32 148 28 550 32 406 36 034 34 425 11.2 – 4.5– crops A$m 13 070 17 001 15 231 17 589 21 033 19 474 19 6 – 7 4– crops A$m 13 070 17 001 15 231 17 589 21 033 19 474 19.6 – 7.4

livestock A$m 14 500 15 147 13 318 14 817 15 002 14 951 1 2 0 3– livestock A$m 14 500 15 147 13 318 14 817 15 002 14 951 1.2 – 0.3Forest and fisheries products A$m 3 813 3 872 3 508 3 723 3 600 3 698 3 3 2 7Forest and fisheries products A$m 3 813 3 872 3 508 3 723 3 600 3 698 – 3.3 2.7

forestr A$ 2 2 3 3 2 26 2 2 3 9 2 29 3– forestry A$m 2 471 2 343 2 261 2 474 2 349 2 429 – 5.1 3.4 – fisheries A$m 1 342 1 529 1 247 1 249 1 251 1 270 0.2 1.5 fisheries $

Gross value of production bGross value of production bF A$ 43 752 41 918 39 675 48 139 48 717 47 076 1 2 3 4Farm A$m 43 752 41 918 39 675 48 139 48 717 47 076 1.2 – 3.4

$– crops A$m 24 237 22 769 21 137 27 082 27 565 26 179 1.8 – 5.0p $– livestock A$m 19 516 19 149 18 537 21 057 21 152 20 897 0.5 – 1.2 livestock A$m 19 516 19 149 18 537 21 057 21 152 20 897 0.5 1.2Forestry and fisheries A$m 4 044 3 975 3 973 4 052 3 907 4 069 – 3.6 4.1Forestry and fisheries A$m 4 044 3 975 3 973 4 052 3 907 4 069 3.6 4.1– forestry A$m 1 837 1 759 1 779 1 842 1 671 1 788 – 9 3 7 0 forestry A$m 1 837 1 759 1 779 1 842 1 671 1 788 – 9.3 7.0– fisheries A$m 2 207 2 216 2 194 2 210 2 236 2 281 1 2 2 0– fisheries A$m 2 207 2 216 2 194 2 210 2 236 2 281 1.2 2.0

Volume of productionVolume of productionFarm index 103.9 108.2 107.6 114.2 119.5 118.7 4.6 – 0.7Farm index 103.9 108.2 107.6 114.2 119.5 118.7 4.6 – 0.7– crops index 103 9 113 4 114 4 126 3 136 8 131 5 8 3 – 3 9– crops index 103.9 113.4 114.4 126.3 136.8 131.5 8.3 – 3.9

livestock index 102 3 100 8 98 8 100 6 100 8 104 2 0 2 3 4– livestock index 102.3 100.8 98.8 100.6 100.8 104.2 0.2 3.4Forestry index 133 3 119 5 118 7 122 7 112 3 117 6 8 5 4 7Forestry index 133.3 119.5 118.7 122.7 112.3 117.6 – 8.5 4.7

Production area and livestock numbersProduction area and livestock numbersCrop area (grains and oilseeds) ’000 ha 23 204 24 084 23 793 24 112 24 148 23 673 0 2 – 2 0Crop area (grains and oilseeds) ’000 ha 23 204 24 084 23 793 24 112 24 148 23 673 0.2 – 2.0Forestry plantation area ’000 ha 1 973 2 020 2 009 2 017 na na na naForestry plantation area ’000 ha 1 973 2 020 2 009 2 017 na na na naSheep million 76 9 72 7 68 1 74 3 77 6 81 0 4 4 4 4Sheep million 76.9 72.7 68.1 74.3 77.6 81.0 4.4 4.4C ttl illi 27 3 27 9 26 6 28 8 30 2 31 4 4 9 4 0Cattle million 27.3 27.9 26.6 28.8 30.2 31.4 4.9 4.0

Farm costs A$m 37 137 36 631 34 491 36 801 37 578 37 568 2.1 – 0.0Farm costs A$m 37 137 36 631 34 491 36 801 37 578 37 568 2.1 – 0.0Net cash income c A$m 10 834 5 854 9 978 16 283 16 211 14 718 – 0 4 – 9 2Net cash income c A$m 10 834 5 854 9 978 16 283 16 211 14 718 – 0.4 – 9.2Net value of farm production d A$m 6 615 5 287 5 184 11 338 11 138 9 508 1 8 14 6Net value of farm production d A$m 6 615 5 287 5 184 11 338 11 138 9 508 – 1.8 – 14.6

Farmers’ terms of trade index 91.4 88.9 88.6 98.5 93.7 91.9 – 4.9 – 1.9Farmers terms of trade index 91.4 88.9 88.6 98.5 93.7 91.9 4.9 1.9

EmploymentEmploymentAgriculture forestry and fishing ’000 354 362 369 351Agriculture, forestry and fishing ’000 354 362 369 351 na na na naAustralia ’000 10 684 10 892 11 027 11 355 na na na na

a Base: 2007–08 = 100 b For a definition of the gross value of farm production see Table 13 c Gross value of farm production less increase in assetsa Base: 2007–08 = 100. b For a definition of the gross value of farm production see Table 13. c Gross value of farm production less increase in assets held by marketing authorities and less total cash costs d Gross value of farm production less total farm costs f ABARES forecast s ABARES estimatea Base: 2007–08 = 100. b For a definition of the gross value of farm production see Table 13. c Gross value of farm production less increase in assets held by marketing authorities and less total cash costs. d Gross value of farm production less total farm costs. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate. na Not available.

a Base: 2007–08 = 100. b For a definition of the gross value of farm production see Table 13. c Gross value of farm production less increase in assets held by marketing authorities and less total cash costs. d Gross value of farm production less total farm costs. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate. na Not available.Note: ABARE revised the method for calculating farm price and production indexes in October 1999. The indexes for the different groups of

held by marketing authorities and less total cash costs. d Gross value of farm production less total farm costs. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate. na Not available.Note: ABARE revised the method for calculating farm price and production indexes in October 1999. The indexes for the different groups of commodities are calculated on a chain weight basis using Fishers’ ideal index with a reference year of 1997–98 = 100.

na Not available.Note: ABARE revised the method for calculating farm price and production indexes in October 1999. The indexes for the different groups of commodities are calculated on a chain weight basis using Fishers’ ideal index with a reference year of 1997–98 = 100. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

Note: ABARE revised the method for calculating farm price and production indexes in October 1999. The indexes for the different groups of commodities are calculated on a chain weight basis using Fishers’ ideal index with a reference year of 1997–98 = 100. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticscommodities are calculated on a chain weight basis using Fishers ideal index with a reference year of 1997 98 100. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

24

Economic overview


Major Australian agricultural, fisheries and forestry commodity exports

$5.62b$5.92b

$4.47b$4.45b

$2.70b$3.00b

$1.88b$1.84b

$2.20b$2.29b

$1.51b$1.68b

$2.29b$2.56b

$1.22b$1.83b

$1.20b$1.34b

$1.12b$1.05b

$0.83b$0.77b

$0.44b$0.36b

$0.41b$0.39b

worldpricevalue valuevolume

–1% –13%

Wheat, cotton, sugar and oilseeds are world indicator prices in US$. All other commodities are export unit returnsor domestic prices in A$. For export value, annual forecasts are the sum of quarterly forecasts. As a result, annual export values do not necessarily re�ect variations in export volumes, world prices and exchange rates.

2012–13

2011–12 f

2012–13 f

$b

+12%

+6%

–27%

+5%

+7%

+21%

+1%

–5%

–10%–11%

–10%

–33%–8%

+3%

+3%

+6%

+7%

+24%

+5%

+2%

+2%

+12%

–3%

–3%

0%

–17%

–11%

–10%

–4%

0%

0%

+2%

–10%

–11%

–4%

+2%

+2%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

f ABARES forecast.

Rock lobster

Mutton

Woodchips

Lamb

Oilseeds

Barley

Sugar

Cotton

Wine

Dairy

Wool

Beef and veal

Wheat

AgricultureCrops


WheatJames Fell

The world wheat indicator price (US no. 2 hard red winter, fob Gulf) is forecast to fall by 13 per cent in 2012–13 to average around US$260 a tonne. This forecast price fall reflects expected higher availability (opening stocks plus production) of wheat and an expected increase in world production of higher protein milling wheats. US hard red winter wheat is a high protein milling wheat.

A downside risk to this price forecast is the potential for a significant amount of wheat to be exported from India, following increased harvest in recent years and policy changes by the Indian Government to allow wheat to be exported.

World wheat indicator price and production

Mt 2011–12US$/t

Other

ArgentinaAustraliaCanada

United StatesBlack Sea exportersIndia

ChinaEuropean UnionUS no. 2 HRW fob Gulf(right axis)

2012–13f

2011–12f

2010–11

2009–10

2008–09

2007–08

f ABARES forecast.

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

27

Wheat


Production to remain high in 2012–13Following record production in the previous season, world wheat production is forecast to fall by around 3 per cent in 2012–13 to around 678 million tonnes, mainly because of a fall in production in the Black Sea exporting countries.

Wheat production in the three major Black Sea exporting countries (the Russian Federation, Ukraine and Kazakhstan) is forecast to fall by 16 per cent in 2012–13 to around 85 million tonnes. The forecast fall is the result of drought in Ukraine and an assumption of a return to average yields in Kazakhstan following above average yields in 2011–12. In Ukraine, significant areas of winter wheat have reportedly been abandoned as a result of the drought and replanted with spring wheat and other crops. At the opening of the spring planting window in May 2012, rainfall and soil moisture remained relatively low in parts of Ukraine, Kazakhstan and southern areas of the Russian Federation.

While world production is forecast to fall as a result of expected lower production in the Black Sea countries, production in some other major producing and exporting regions has either increased or remained largely unchanged. Consequently, the availability of milling wheat, particularly from North America, is forecast to increase, which is expected to place downward pressure on the world indicator price.

In the United States, wheat production is forecast to rise by 13 per cent in 2012–13 to around 61 million tonnes. Before the start of the winter wheat harvest in June, a majority of crops were in good to excellent condition and winter wheat production is forecast to be 13 per cent higher in 2012–13, particularly in the southern hard red winter wheat areas. Spring wheat production is forecast to rise by 11 per cent, largely as a result of improved planting conditions compared with the previous season.

In Canada, production is forecast to increase by 5 per cent in 2012–13 to around 27 million tonnes. This reflects an assumed 12 per cent increase in harvested area, with official estimates of growers’ planting intentions indicating a significant increase in planted area. However, spring production may fall significantly if seasonal conditions on the Prairies prove to be unfavourable.

In the European Union, wheat production is forecast to fall by around 3 per cent in 2012–13 to around 135 million tonnes. The area harvested is expected to fall by 3 per cent to around 25 million hectares. Winterkill increased following a cold spell in February with significant losses in eastern France, western Germany and Poland. In contrast, conditions in the United Kingdom and western France were warmer, with lower than normal winterkill. Average yields in France, Germany and the United Kingdom, the three largest EU producers, are expected to be around average.

In Argentina, wheat production is forecast to fall by 2 per cent in 2012–13 to around 13 million tonnes. This largely reflects a forecast fall in planted area with growers expected to plant larger areas of other crops, such as barley. Rainfall at the beginning of the planting window in May was generally below average and sufficient in-crop rainfall will be needed for forecast yields to be realised.

While China and India are not major exporters of wheat, they are major wheat producers and consumers. Chinese wheat production is forecast to remain largely unchanged in 2012–13 at around 116 million tonnes. In India, harvest of the 2012–13 wheat crop is complete, with production estimated to have increased by 4 per cent to around 90 million tonnes.

28

Wheat


Use of wheat for food to riseWorld wheat consumption is forecast to fall by 1 per cent in 2012–13 to around 679 million tonnes. World food use is forecast to rise by 1 per cent to around 464 million tonnes, reflecting population growth. Human consumption of wheat for food accounts for a little less than 70 per cent of world wheat consumption.

World feed use of wheat is forecast to fall by around 10 per cent in 2012–13 to around 127 million tonnes in response to an expected fall in world supplies of feed wheat. While feed use accounts for only around 18 per cent of world wheat consumption, its fluctuations can have a significant effect on overall consumption because human and industrial wheat consumption do not change significantly in the short term.

Trade to remain highWorld trade in wheat is forecast to fall by 5 per cent in 2012–13 to around 136 million tonnes; an anticipated increase in exports of milling wheat is expected to be more than offset by a fall in exports of feed wheat.

With the increased availability of milling wheat in North America, exports of wheat from the United States and Canada are forecast to increase by 15 per cent and 8 per cent in 2012–13 to around 32 million tonnes and 19 million tonnes, respectively. In 2012–13, western Canada’s wheat export marketing arrangements will change and the Canadian Wheat Board will cease to be a single desk marketer of wheat from western Canada (Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and a part of British Columbia).

Exports from the European Union are forecast to fall by around 14 per cent to around 16 million tonnes, reflecting lower production in 2012–13. The Russian Federation and Ukraine are typically large exporters of feed wheat and a fall in exports from Ukraine is expected to contribute to lower feed wheat exports in 2012–13. Total wheat exports from the Russian Federation, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are forecast to fall by 11 per cent in 2012–13 to around 32 million tonnes, largely reflecting the forecast lower availability of wheat in this region.

Change in world feed consumption and total consumption

Mt

Change in feed component of consumption

Change in total consumption

f ABARES forecast.

–20

–10

10

20

30

40

50

2012–13f

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

29

Wheat


Exports from Argentina are forecast to fall by 17 per cent in 2012–13 to around 9 million tonnes, reflecting an expected decline in production. In early 2012, the Argentinian Government announced that it will switch from authorising export volumes to regulating domestic consumption. Under the proposed plan, around 7 million tonnes would be reserved for domestic consumption and the surplus production would be available for export.

India is not typically a major exporter of wheat but its wheat exports are forecast to more than double in 2012–13 to around 3 million tonnes. Indian production has exceeded domestic consumption in each year since 2006–07 resulting in the build-up of a large stock of exportable wheat. Previously, regulation prevented the export of this grain but, in September 2011, India officially removed its ban on wheat exports.

Stocks to fallWorld closing stocks of wheat are forecast to fall by around 1 per cent in 2012–13 to around 201 million tonnes but to remain at high levels. While closing stocks in most major exporting countries are forecast to be largely unchanged, stocks in India, which holds around 9 per cent of world wheat stocks, are forecast to rise by 26 per cent to around 26 million tonnes. This reflects consecutive years of Indian production exceeding domestic consumption. However, stocks in Ukraine are forecast to fall by around 70 per cent to around 2 million tonnes.

World wheat closing stocks

Mt

Other

ArgentinaAustraliaCanada

European UnionKazakhstanRussian FederationUkraineUnited States

IndiaChina

2012–13f

2011–12f

2010–11

2009–10

2008–09

2007–08

f ABARES forecast.

40

80

120

160

200

30

Wheat


Australian wheat production to fallAustralian wheat production is forecast to fall by 18 per cent in 2012–13 to around 24 million tonnes. This reflects a forecast fall in planted area and an assumed return of yields to historical averages from the highs of last season. The area planted to wheat is forecast to fall by 5 per cent in 2012–13, reflecting the effect on growers of an expected fall in farmgate wheat prices and a dry start of the season. Sowing of wheat is largely complete across most states, with growers in some southern regions yet to complete planting.

Rainfall and soil moisture in Western Australia, typically the largest producing state, have been below average throughout the planting window. Because soils in the Western Australian wheat belt are sandy with low water-holding capacity, crops generally rely on in-crop rainfall for development and growth. Production in Western Australia is forecast to fall by 26 per cent to around 9 million tonnes in 2012–13, as a result of an estimated 6 per cent fall in area sown to wheat and an assumed decline of yields to historical averages.

Water-holding capacity (available water content) (mm)

NorthernTerritory

Queensland

New SouthWales

AustralianCapital

TerritoryVictoria

Tasmania

South Australia

WesternAustralia

High > 200175 to 200150 to 175125 to 150100 to 125

75 to 10050 to 7525 to 50Low < 25No data

31

Wheat


Average to above average rainfall has been received in eastern Australia’s northern cropping areas since early 2012, which has supplemented soil moisture reserves. In southern cropping areas of the eastern states, rainfall has been average to below average since the beginning of the planting window, but generally sufficient for sowing with timely rainfall in the latter parts of both April and May.

The seasonal outlook issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on 23 May 2012 points to an increase in the probability of a dry winter across southern Australia; in contrast, a wetter than average season is likely to occur in Queensland and northern New South Wales. Temperatures are likely to exceed average across almost all major cropping areas.

Export earnings to declineAustralian wheat exports are forecast to be largely unchanged in 2012–13 at around 21 million tonnes. This reflects a forecast drawdown in existing stocks and the large harvest of 2011–12, which will contribute to export shipments in the first six months of the July to June year.

Reflecting a forecast fall in world wheat prices, the value of Australian wheat exports is forecast to fall by 5 per cent in 2012–13, to be around $5.6 billion.

Australian wheat export volumes

Mt

Eastern states (incl. SA)

f ABARES forecast.

Western Australia

5

10

15

20

25

2012–13f

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

32

Wheat


Outlook for wheat

2010 2011 2012 %2010 2011 2012 %–11 –12 f –13 f change11 12 f 13 f change

WorldWorld Production Mt 653 695 678 – 2 5Production Mt 653 695 678 – 2.5– China Mt 115 118 116 – 1 6– China Mt 115 118 116 – 1.6– European Union 27 Mt 137 138 135 – 2 6– European Union 27 Mt 137 138 135 – 2.6

India Mt 81 87 90 3 9– India Mt 81 87 90 3.9Russian Federation Mt 42 56 57 1 4– Russian Federation Mt 42 56 57 1.4United States Mt 60 54 61 12 7– United States Mt 60 54 61 12.7

Consumption Mt 657 688 679 – 1.3Consumption Mt 657 688 679 1.3– human Mt 456 460 464 0.8– human Mt 456 460 464 0.8– feed Mt 118 142 127 – 10 4– feed Mt 118 142 127 – 10.4

Closing stocks Mt 195 202 201 – 0.5gStocks-to-use ratio % 30 29 30 0.8Stocks to use ratio % 30 29 30 0.8Trade Mt 126 143 136 – 5.2Trade Mt 126 143 136 – 5.2ExportsExports

A i M 9 10 9 17 3– Argentina Mt 9 10 9 – 17.3– Australia a Mt 18 21 21 – 0.9 Australia a– Canada Mt 16 17 19 8.1– European Union 27 Mt 24 19 16 – 14.0 European Union 27 Mt 24 19 16 14.0– Kazakhstan Mt 6 9 9 4.4 Kazakhstan Mt 6 9 9 4.4– Russian Federation Mt 4 22 18 – 14.4– Russian Federation Mt 4 22 18 – 14.4– Ukraine Mt 4 5 4 – 26 4– Ukraine Mt 4 5 4 – 26.4

United States Mt 35 28 32 15 1– United States Mt 35 28 32 15.1

Price b US$/t 317 298 260 – 12.8AustraliaAustraliaArea ’000 ha 13 645 14 058 13 353 – 5 0Area 000 ha 13 645 14 058 13 353 – 5.0Production kt 27 891 29 515 24 124 – 18 3Production kt 27 891 29 515 24 124 – 18.3Exports a kt 18 431 21 200 21 000 – 0 9Exports a kt 18 431 21 200 21 000 – 0.9

value A$m 5 516 5 922 5 621 5 1– value A$m 5 516 5 922 5 621 – 5.1APW 10 net pool return A$/t 346 259 250 3 5APW 10 net pool return A$/t 346 259 250 – 3.5

a July June years b US no 2 hard red winter wheat fob Gulf July June f ABARES forecasta July–June years. b US no. 2 hard red winter wheat fob Gulf, July–June. f ABARES forecast.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Grains Councila July–June years. b US no. 2 hard red winter wheat fob Gulf, July–June. f ABARES forecast.

Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Grains Councila July–June years. b US no. 2 hard red winter wheat fob Gulf, July–June. f ABARES forecast.

Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Grains CouncilSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Grains CouncilSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Grains Council

33ABARESAgricultural commodities – vol. 2 no. 2 • June quarter 2012

Prices to fall in 2012–13The world coarse grains indicator price (US corn, fob Gulf) is forecast to fall by 10 per cent in 2012–13 to $244 a tonne in response to a forecast increase in production. This follows the indicator price averaging a forecast $271 a tonne in 2011–12 because of low world stocks. The world indicator price for barley (French Rouen feed) is forecast to fall by 8 per cent in 2012–13 to US$248 a tonne.

Record US corn production drives global production to record levelsWorld coarse grain production is forecast to rise by 5 per cent in 2012–13 to a record 1.2 billion tonnes with production increases forecast for barley and corn.

World coarse grains prices

2011–12US$/t

French Rouen feed barley

US corn fob Gulf ports

f ABARES forecast.

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2012–13f

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

Coarse grainsDavid Mobsby

34

Coarse grains


BarleyWorld barley production is forecast to increase by 4 per cent in 2012–13 to 139 million tonnes, reflecting an expected increase in harvested area in major producing nations and replanting of failed 2012–13 winter crops with spring barley in the European Union and Ukraine.

In the European Union, barley production is forecast to increase by 2 per cent in 2012–13 to 53 million tonnes. Winterkill during 2012–13 led to higher than expected abandonment of winter grains (including winter barley) and these areas are expected to be resown with spring barley and corn.

Barley production in the Black Sea region (Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation and Ukraine) is forecast to decrease by 3 per cent in 2012–13 to 27.5 million tonnes. A forecast increase in the harvested area in Ukraine is expected to be offset by a return to average yields from the above average yields achieved in 2011–12. Large areas of winter grains, including winter barley that accounts for roughly 30 per cent of total barley area annually, were damaged by winterkill and are expected to be resown with spring barley and corn. Consequently, production in Ukraine is forecast to remain largely unchanged at around 9 million tonnes. In the Russian Federation, barley production is forecast to decrease by 2 per cent to 16.5 million tonnes, reflecting a return to average yields from the above average yields achieved in 2011–12.

In Canada, the harvested area for barley is forecast to rise by 21 per cent in 2012–13 to 2.9 million hectares as producers respond to low domestic supplies and favourable prices by increasing the planted area. Assuming average yields, production is forecast to rise by 21 per cent to 9.4 million tonnes.

In Argentina, the area planted to barley is forecast to rise by 22 per cent to 1.4 million hectares. This reflects the expectation that producers will switch to barley from wheat, which is subject to government policy, as barley is an attractive alternative for producers. Producers are free to sell all barley to the market that gives them the highest return. Assuming average yields, barley production is forecast to increase by 29 per cent to 5.2 million tonnes in 2012–13.

Black sea region barley production

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

Kazakhstan

Ukraine Russian Federation

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2012–13f

2009–10

2006–07

2003–04

2000–01

1997–98

35

Coarse grains


CornWorld corn production is forecast to increase by 6 per cent in 2012–13 to a record 925 million tonnes, reflecting an expected increase in harvested area in major producing nations, most notably in the United States and China. Together these two nations are forecast to account for 60 per cent of world production.

In the United States, corn production is forecast to increase by 16 per cent in 2012–13 to 363 million tonnes, largely as a result of a forecast 5 per cent rise in the harvested area. The area planted to corn is estimated to have increased because of expected favourable returns to corn relative to production alternatives. However, the increase is less than early expectations as a result of the price of soybeans rising during the planting period for corn.

In China, the world’s second largest producer of corn, the harvested area for corn is forecast to rise by 4 per cent to 34 million hectares in 2012–13. This forecast increase is supported by high domestic prices, strong domestic demand and government assistance to producers. Assuming favourable seasonal conditions, corn production in China is forecast to rise by 1 per cent to 194 million tonnes.

US corn planting progress

%

2012–13

2006–07 to 2010–11 average

20

40

60

80

100

Week 11Week 9Week 7Week 5Week 3Week 1

World corn production

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

Other

Latin America

China

United States

2012–13f

2009–10

2006–07

2003–04

2000–01

1997–98

200

400

600

800

1000

36

Coarse grains


With the world price of corn forecast to fall in 2012–13, the area planted to corn in Latin America (Argentina and Brazil) is forecast to fall as producers switch to more profitable production alternatives, such as soybeans. Consequently, the harvested areas in Argentina and Brazil are each forecast to contract by 3 per cent. However, despite the reduction in harvested area, corn production in Argentina and Brazil is forecast to increase by 20 per cent and 1 per cent to 26 million tonnes and 67 million tonnes, respectively. In Argentina, the forecast increase reflects a return to average yields from the below average yields recorded in 2011–12.

Across Europe, the forecast for corn production is mixed. In the European Union, corn production is forecast to remain largely unchanged in 2012–13 at 65 million tonnes. While the area planted to corn is estimated to have increased by 6 per cent, it has been assumed there will be a return to average yields following the above average yields in 2011–12. In Ukraine, corn production is forecast to increase by 4 per cent in 2012–13 to 22 million tonnes, with the increase in harvested area forecast to more than offset a return to average yields following above average yields in 2011–12.

Feed use of coarse grains drives consumption for 2012–13World consumption of coarse grains is forecast to increase by around 4 per cent in 2012–13 to 1.2 billion tonnes, reflecting forecast lower prices. Feed use of coarse grains is expected to be the main driver of consumption growth. However, industrial and food use is also forecast to grow, albeit at a slower rate than over recent years, with growth in ethanol production expected to slow.

World feed use of coarse grains is forecast to rise by 4 per cent in 2012–13 to 690 million tonnes, reflecting an increase in available supplies, lower prices and growing world demand for feed grains. Increases in consumption are forecast for the fast growing economies of Asia, where meat consumption is expected to increase in line with growing incomes and population growth. Pig meat consumption in China, for example, has grown at an average annual rate of 4.7 per cent since 1982–83 and use of corn for feed has grown at an annual average rate of 4.9 per cent over the same period. These trends are expected to continue and use of corn for feed is forecast to increase by 6 per cent in 2012–13 to 138 million tonnes.

China corn for feed and pig meat consumption

Mt Mt

Corn for feed

Pig meat consumption (right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

30

60

90

120

150

2012–13f

2008–09

2004–05

2000–01

1996–97

1992–93

1988–89

1984–85

15

30

45

60

75

37

Coarse grains


In the United States, use of corn for feed is forecast to increase by 10 per cent in 2012–13 to 127 million tonnes as a result of the combined effects of plentiful supplies of domestically produced corn, falling prices and an expected rise in pig and poultry populations.

World barley consumption for feed is forecast to increase by 2 per cent in 2012–13 to 92 million tonnes, reflecting an expected substitution away from feed wheat into feed barley. The substitution of feed barley for feed wheat is expected to occur because of lower world feed wheat supplies. Increases in feed consumption of barley are expected in most major consuming countries.

World industrial and food use of coarse grains is forecast to increase by 2 per cent in 2012–13 to 494 million tonnes, which is lower than the average rate of growth over the five years to 2011–12 of around 6 per cent. The forecast slowing of consumption for industrial and food use reflects the forecast slowing of ethanol production in the United States. The drivers of growth in industrial and food use in 2012–13 are expected to be from non-biofuel uses such as corn-based sweeteners and starch and beer.

Growth in ethanol production in the United States slowed considerably over 2010 and 2011 and is forecast to remain largely unchanged in 2012 and 2013. The United States Energy Information Administration is forecasting a slight fall in demand for motor gasoline in 2012 and 2013, which will flow through to a slight reduction in the aggregate consumption of ethanol. Production of corn-based ethanol is expected to increase slightly in line with a small increase in the mandated levels of ethanol that can be produced from corn. In 2012 and 2013 these mandated levels of production will increase by 2.3 billion litres each year.

In China, industrial and food use of coarse grains is forecast to rise by 9 per cent in 2012–13 to 62 million tonnes. Use of corn for ethanol production is expected to slow as the government lowers subsidies for producing corn-based ethanol. However, demand for other industrial and food products derived from corn is expected to grow, more than offsetting slowing ethanol production.

US ethanol demand and supply

BL BL

Production

Consumption

Stocks (right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

10

20

30

40

50

60

0.6

1.2

1.8

2.4

3.0

3.6

2012f20092006200320001997

38

Coarse grains


Record corn production to increase world trade in 2012–13World trade in coarse grains is forecast to increase by 10 per cent in 2012–13 to 128 million tonnes. While the trade in barley is forecast to fall, trade in corn is expected to rise as a result of forecast increases in corn production in the major exporting countries.

World barley trade is forecast to fall by 5 per cent in 2012–13 to 18.8 million tonnes with decreases in tradable supplies in the Russian Federation and the European Union more than offsetting increases in tradable supplies in Argentina and Ukraine.

Exports of barley from Argentina are forecast to rise by 39 per cent in 2012–13 to 4.1 million tonnes, driven by higher domestic production. Argentina has become increasingly prominent in world barley trade with exports rising from 102 000 tonnes in 2002–03 to over 3 million tonnes in 2011–12. This largely resulted from rising production outpacing growth in domestic Argentine consumption.

Changes in exports from the Black Sea region are forecast to be mixed. Drawing on an increased tradable supply, Ukraine is forecast to increase barley exports by 9 per cent in 2012–13 to 2.5 million tonnes. However, in the Russian Federation, an expected decrease in production is forecast to drive a 28 per cent decrease in exports to 2.3 million tonnes.

On the imports side, Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest importer of barley, is forecast to decrease its imports by 3 per cent to 7.3 million tonnes. The forecast fall assumes that measures taken by the government of Saudi Arabia to diversify animal feed imports will start to have an effect on the relative quantities of feed barley and other animal feed imports during 2012–13. In July 2011, the Saudi Arabian Government announced an expanded list of animal feeds to be eligible for import subsidies and doubled most existing subsidies.

Argentina barley market

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

Exports

Domestic consumption

2012–13f

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

1

2

3

4

5

39

Coarse grains


World trade in corn is forecast to increase by 14 per cent in 2012–13 to 101 million tonnes, driven by a high tradable surplus in the United States and growing international demand for feed grains. The United States is forecast to increase corn exports by 16 per cent to 50 million tonnes. Ukraine is forecast to increase corn exports by 4 per cent in 2012–13 to 12.5 million tonnes, driven by an increase in tradable supply.

China is expected to increase corn imports by 36 per cent in 2012–13 to 6.8 million tonnes with consumption expected to outpace domestic production in 2012–13.

Coarse grains stocks to rise in 2012–13World closing stocks of coarse grains are forecast to fall by 2 per cent in 2011–12 but increase by 11 per cent in 2012–13 to 184 million tonnes. Forecast record production of coarse grains outpacing consumption will drive the increase in stocks. If realised, the forecast level of stocks would be the highest since 2009–10.

World closing stocks of barley are forecast to increase by 3 per cent in 2012–13 to 28.3 million tonnes with world production forecast to exceed consumption. Closing stocks are forecast to increase in Ukraine and Canada but decrease in the European Union and the Russian Federation.

World closing stocks of corn are forecast to increase by 14 per cent in 2012–13 to 145 million tonnes, reflecting forecast record production in the United States where corn stocks are forecast to double to 45 million tonnes. In China, closing stocks of corn are expected to remain largely unchanged at around 58 million tonnes with shortfalls in domestic production expected to be filled by imports.

World corn stocks

Mt

f ABARES forecast.

Other

ChinaUnited States

50

100

150

200

2012–13f

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

2000–01

40

Coarse grains


Lower Australian production in 2012–13For Australia, the area planted to coarse grains is forecast to decrease by 5 per cent in 2012–13 to 5.8 million hectares as producers respond to expected lower prices. Total coarse grains production is forecast to decline by 14 per cent to 11.8 million tonnes in 2012–13, reflecting the combined effect of a reduction in planted area and a return to average yields, following above average yields in 2011–12.

Planted area for barley is expected to fall by 4 per cent in 2012–13 to 3.9 million hectares as producers reduce planted area to barley and switch to alternative crops, such as canola, offering higher expected returns. Barley production is forecast to decrease by 15 per cent in 2012–13 to 7.3 million tonnes.

Grain sorghum production is estimated to have increased by 13 per cent in 2011–12 to 2.3 million tonnes. This production increase mainly reflects an increase in yields as a result of favourable seasonal conditions. Assuming a return to more average yields in 2012–13, grain sorghum production is forecast to decrease by 13 per cent to 2 million tonnes.

Lower export earnings in 2012–13Export shipments of coarse grains are forecast to decline by 25 per cent in 2012–13 to 5.8 million tonnes. Export earnings from coarse grains are forecast to fall by 26 per cent to $1.5 billion in 2012–13, reflecting both reduced export shipments and forecast lower export prices.

For major coarse grains, barley export shipments are forecast to decline by 27 per cent in 2012–13 to 4.7 million tonnes, after a forecast increase of 39 per cent to 6.4 million tonnes in 2011–12. Lower export shipments and export prices are forecast to result in export earnings from barley falling by 33 per cent in 2012–13 to $1.2 billion.

Grain sorghum export shipments are forecast to nearly double in 2011–12 to 1 million tonnes, reflecting an increase in tradable supplies. Grain sorghum exports are forecast to decline by 18 per cent in 2012–13 to around 862 000 tonnes in line with forecast lower production. Export earnings from grain sorghum are forecast to fall by 14 per cent to $247 million in 2012–13.

41

Coarse grains


Outlook for coarse grains


WorldWorldProduction Mt 1 091 1 141 1 202 5 3Production Mt 1 091 1 141 1 202 5.3

barley Mt 124 134 139 3 7– barley Mt 124 134 139 3.7Mt 825 870 925 6 3– corn Mt 825 870 925 6.3

Consumption Mt 1 131 1 144 1 184 3.5Consumption Mt 1 131 1 144 1 184 3.5Trade Mt 114 116 128 10.3Trade Mt 114 116 128 10.3Closing stocks Mt 169 166 184 10 8Closing stocks Mt 169 166 184 10.8Stocks to use ratio % 15 15 16 6 7Stocks-to-use ratio % 15 15 16 6.7CCorn pricep (fob Gulf, Sep–Aug) US$/t 277 271 244 – 10.0 (fob Gulf, Sep Aug) US$/t 277 271 244 10.0Barley priceBarley price(fob Rouen Jul–Jun) US$/t 265 270 248 – 8 1 (fob Rouen, Jul–Jun) US$/t 265 270 248 – 8.1

lAustraliaArea ’000 ha 5 637 6 080 5 799 – 4.6– barley ’000 ha 3 740 4 038 3 875 – 4.0 barley 000 ha 3 740 4 038 3 875 4.0– grain sorghum ’000 ha 674 632 600 – 5 1– grain sorghum 000 ha 674 632 600 – 5.1

P d ti k 12 391 13 651 11 753 13 9Production kt 12 391 13 651 11 753 – 13.9b l– barley kt 8 145 8 572 7 302 – 14.8y

– grain sorghum kt 2 068 2 343 2 035 – 13.1 grain sorghum kt 2 068 2 343 2 035 13.1

Exports a kt 5 337 7 709 5 780 25 0Exports a kt 5 337 7 709 5 780 – 25.0value A$m 1 493 2 095 1 545 26 3– value A$m 1 493 2 095 1 545 – 26.3

F d b l i A$/ 217 195 178 8 7Feed barley price A$/t 217 195 178 – 8.7Malting barley price A$/t 257 200 195 – 2.5a t g ba ey p ce $ 5 00 95 .5

a July–June years. f ABARES forecast.a July–June years. f ABARES forecast.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; United States Department of Agriculture. a July–June years. f ABARES forecast.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; United States Department of Agriculture. a July June years. f ABARES forecast.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; United States Department of Agriculture.


The world oilseeds indicator price (soybeans, cif, Rotterdam) is forecast to decline by 4 per cent in 2012–13 to US$515 a tonne. This decline reflects a forecast increase in soybean production in the three main producing countries, the United States, Brazil and Argentina.

The world canola indicator price (cif, Hamburg) is forecast to decline by 7 per cent in 2012–13 to US$580 a tonne. The prospect of a record Canadian crop for 2012–13 is a primary factor driving this forecast price decline.

Record oilseeds production in 2012–13World oilseeds production is forecast to increase by 9 per cent in 2012–13 to a record 473 million tonnes. World production of all major oilseeds is forecast to rise in 2012–13, with the most significant increases being forecast for soybeans and canola.

World oilseeds indicator prices

2011–12US$/t

Canola

Soybean

f ABARES forecast.

2012–13f

2009–10

2006–07

2003–04

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

OilseedsBeth Deards and Fiona Crawford

43

Oilseeds


CanolaWorld production of canola is forecast to rise by 3 per cent in 2012–13 to 62 million tonnes. In Canada, canola production is forecast to rise by 10 per cent in 2012–13 to 15.8 million tonnes. Relatively favourable world prices have encouraged canola plantings and the total area planted is estimated to rise by 9 per cent to just over 8 million hectares. Although seasonal conditions have been generally favourable for planting, low temperatures and wet conditions have caused delays in central Manitoba and other parts of the Prairies. Assuming favourable seasonal conditions in the remainder of the season, yields are expected to be around historical averages.

Rapeseed (canola) production in the European Union is estimated to decline by 6 per cent to 18.2 million tonnes in 2012–13, the lowest production since 2006–07. This forecast decline mainly reflects the adverse effects of winterkill and reduced yields. Yields in the major producing countries were lower because of dry conditions at the beginning of the season resulting in poor crop germination. Later in the season, crops in several parts of Germany were damaged by winter frosts, disease and lack of rainfall.

SoybeansWorld production of soybeans is forecast to rise by 15 per cent in 2012–13 to 272 million tonnes. This forecast increase in production reflects expected higher production in the United States and some Latin American producers following the drought affected crop of 2011–12.

In the United States, soybean production is forecast to rise by 7 per cent in 2012–13 to 89 million tonnes, reflecting the combined effect of expected average to above average yields and a marginal increase in area planted. The area planted to soybeans is estimated to rise by 3 per cent to just under 31 million hectares. Favourable conditions during March encouraged an earlier than usual start to planting with 46 per cent of soybeans planted by mid-May, compared with a five-year average to 2011 of 24 per cent.

Despite an increase in area planted, soybean production in Brazil is estimated to have declined by 13 per cent in 2011–12 to 65 million tonnes, the lowest production since 2008–09. The fall in production reflects the adverse effects on yields of severe drought, pests and diseases. With a favourable world price and a poor crop in 2011–12, producers are expected to increase the area planted to soybeans by 8 per cent in 2012–13 to around 27 million hectares. Assuming a return to average yields, soybean production in Brazil is forecast to increase by 19 per cent to around 78 million tonnes in 2012–13.

Soybean production in Argentina is estimated to have declined by 19 per cent in 2011–12 to 39.6 million tonnes. Very dry conditions during critical growing periods resulted in significant crop losses, and crops in Buenos Aires and La Pampa were damaged by frosts and hailstorms during April. In 2012–13 the area planted to soybeans is forecast to rise by 6 per cent to 19.7 million hectares. Assuming a return to average yields, production is forecast to increase by 39 per cent to 55 million tonnes in 2012–13.

SunflowerWorld sunflower seed production is forecast to rise by 1 per cent in 2012–13 to 37 million tonnes, driven by expected increases in production in the Black Sea region and Argentina.

44

Oilseeds


In the Black Sea region, sunflower seed production is forecast to rise by 1 per cent in 2012–13 to a record 17.8 million tonnes. Strong returns in the previous season encouraged producers in Ukraine to increase the area sown to sunflowers by 8 per cent to 5.6 million hectares. While the area planted to sunflowers in the Russian Federation is forecast to decline by 1 per cent to 7.2 million hectares; if achieved, this will be the second largest on record. Assuming favourable seasonal conditions, sunflower seed production in Ukraine is forecast to rise by 4 per cent in 2012–13 to 9.1 million tonnes. In contrast, sunflower seed production in the Russian Federation is forecast to decline by 1 per cent to 8.6 million tonnes, as a result of the lower area planted.

In Argentina, harvest of the 2011–12 sunflower crop is complete and seed production is estimated to have risen by 1 per cent to 3.6 million tonnes. Although there was an estimated 5 per cent increase in planted area, the average yield fell by 4 per cent compared with the previous seasons because of heavy rainfall in the main sunflower producing area of Buenos Aires. In 2012–13, the area planted to sunflowers is forecast to increase by 8 per cent. Assuming a return to average yields, sunflower seed production is forecast to rise by 7 per cent in 2012–13 to 3.8 million tonnes.

Record crush driven by higher productionWorld oilseeds crush is forecast to rise by 3 per cent in 2012–13 to around 396 million tonnes, driven by increased production in all major oilseeds (soybeans, canola and sunflower). Sunflower seed crush in 2012–13 is forecast to achieve growth of 5 per cent to 33.4 million tonnes, followed by soybean and canola, both of which are forecast to rise by 3 per cent to 232 million tonnes and 60 million tonnes, respectively.

In Brazil, soybean crush is forecast to rise by 4 per cent in 2012–13 to 37.4 million tonnes. Supporting this forecast growth is the expected recovery in soybean production, which will more than offset the effect on crushing of low carryover stocks from the previous year.

Rapeseed crush in the European Union is forecast to increase by 3 per cent in 2012–13 to 21.6 million tonnes, despite expected lower production. This forecast increase reflects steady growth in demand for rapeseed oil from the European biodiesel sector. Given the forecast lower production in the European Union, it is expected that increased imports of canola seed will help meet higher crush demand.

World oilseeds production

Mt

Other

Sun�owerCanolaSoybean

f ABARES forecast.

100

200

300

400

500

2012–13f

2009–10

2006–07

2003–04

45

Oilseeds


In the Black Sea region, sunflower crush is forecast to rise by 9 per cent in 2012–13 to 15.6 million tonnes, driven by an expected increase in supply of sunflower seed and attractive crush margins. Both the Russian Federation and Ukraine have high export duties on sunflower seeds designed to stimulate domestic crushing.

Palm oilPalm oil represented 33 per cent of world vegetable oil production in 2010–11; more than any other vegetable oil. Palm oil production is forecast to increase by 5 per cent in 2011–12 to around 50 million tonnes. This will be 13 million tonnes higher than soy oil, which represented the second highest level of vegetable oil production.

Before 2004–05, more soy oil was produced than palm oil. However, over the decade to 2010–11 palm oil production increased by 89 per cent to almost 48 million tonnes. Over the same period, soy oil production increased by around 42 per cent to just over 41 million tonnes.

Indonesia and Malaysia are the main producers of palm oil, accounting for around 85 per cent of world production in 2010–11. Over the past decade, palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia increased by 157 per cent and 54 per cent, respectively. Thailand, Colombia and Nigeria are the next largest producers.

Indonesia and Malaysia are also the main exporters of palm oil, representing almost 90 per cent of world trade in 2010–11. Indonesia and Malaysia export around 70 per cent and 90 per cent of their domestic production, respectively. Conversely, Thailand, Colombia and Nigeria, who are smaller producers, consume most of their own production. Other major palm oil consumers include India, China and the European Union.

World palm oil consumption increased by nearly 100 per cent to 48 million tonnes over the decade to 2010–11, the largest increase of all vegetable oils. Of the major consumers, China recorded the highest growth in consumption of around 190 per cent to nearly 6 million tonnes in this period.

World vegetable oil production

Mt

Other

Sun�ower oilCanola oilSoy oil

f ABARES forecast.

Palm oil

30

60

90

120

150

2011–12f

2008–09

2005–06

2002–03

continued...

46

Oilseeds


Palm oil continued

Consumption of palm oil in other emerging economies (excluding China) increased by 86 per cent over the decade to 2010–11. Palm oil is commonly used for cooking, cosmetics and industrial uses (biofuels). Being high in saturated and unsaturated fats, palm oil is an important source of fat for human consumption in some developing countries.

Palm oil production

Mt

Other

NigeriaColombiaThailandMalaysia

10

20

30

40

50

Indonesia

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

Palm oil consumption

Mt

Advanced economies

ChinaEmerging economies

10

20

30

40

50

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

47

Oilseeds


Oilseeds consumption to riseWorld oilseeds consumption is forecast to rise by 3 per cent in 2012–13 to around 466 million tonnes with world vegetable oil consumption forecast to increase by 3 per cent to 157 million tonnes. The forecast increase in world oilseeds consumption mainly reflects the effects of consumption growth in developing countries and continued strong demand for biodiesel.

Vegetable oil consumption in Brazil is forecast to rise by 4 per cent in 2012–13 to around 7 million tonnes. Consumption of soybean oil is forecast to increase by 6 per cent to 5.6 million tonnes, with industrial use forecast to increase by 12 per cent to 2.2 million tonnes. The expected rise in soybean oil consumption is supported by capacity expansions in Brazil’s soybean processing, refining and bottling industries.

World industrial use of vegetable oil is forecast to rise by 6 per cent in 2012–13 to around 37.5 million tonnes. In April 2012, the Argentinian Government announced that the biodiesel blending mandate will be increased from 7 per cent to 10 per cent by October 2012. This is expected to lead to an increase in Argentine consumption of biodiesel by 26 per cent to 3.2 million tonnes in 2012–13.

Protein meal consumption is forecast to increase by 4 per cent in 2012–13 to around 263 million tonnes, driven primarily by feed requirements in China, Brazil and India. Consumption of protein meal in China is forecast to rise by 6 per cent in 2012–13 to 69 million tonnes, supported by higher demand from livestock and aquaculture production. Consumption of protein meal is forecast to increase by 2 per cent in both Brazil and India to 15.6 million tonnes and 12.1 million tonnes, respectively, driven by increasing pork and poultry production.

Protein meal consumption in China, Brazil and India

Mt

China

IndiaBrazil

f ABARES forecast.

2012–13f

2009–10

2006–07

2003–04

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

48

Oilseeds


World closing stocks to rebuild in 2012–13World oilseeds closing stocks are forecast to decline by 17 per cent in 2011–12 to around 66 million tonnes. This forecast decline mainly reflects expected declines in world closing stocks of soybean and canola by 22 per cent and 13 per cent to 54 million tonnes and 5.7 million tonnes, respectively. For the first time in nine years, soybean production declined in the three major producing countries (Brazil, Argentina and the United States) in 2011–12, resulting in a significant decline in soybean closing stocks. Although sunflower seed closing stocks are estimated to rise by 30 per cent, this is from a low base in 2010–11 of 1.5 million tonnes.

World oilseeds closing stocks are forecast to rise by 9 per cent in 2012–13 to around 72 million tonnes as a result of expected higher world production. Soybean and sunflower seed closing stocks in 2012–13 are forecast to increase by 10 per cent and 6 per cent to 59 million tonnes and 2.1 million tonnes, respectively. Conversely, canola closing stocks are forecast to decline by 20 per cent to 4.5 million tonnes, reflecting continued high demand for canola in 2012–13.

Higher production to drive tradeWorld oilseeds trade is estimated to decline by 2 per cent in 2011–12 to around 105 million tonnes. World soybean trade is estimated to decline by 4 per cent to 88 million tonnes, reflecting lower production in the major producing countries and a consequent decline in export supplies. The decline in world soybean trade is expected to be partly offset by forecast increases in world canola and sunflower seed trade by 6 per cent and 46 per cent to 11.5 million tonnes and 2.2 million tonnes, respectively.

World trade in oilseeds is forecast to rise by 8 per cent in 2012–13 to around 113 million tonnes, driven by increased production of all major oilseeds. World trade in soybeans is forecast to rise by 9 per cent to a record 96 million tonnes in 2012–13, supported by higher Chinese imports as a result of lower domestic production. World canola trade is forecast to rise by 2 per cent to 11.8 million tonnes, reflecting increased European imports. World trade in sunflower seeds is forecast to rise by 5 per cent in 2012–13 to 2.3 million tonnes.

World oilseeds closing stocks

Mt

Other

Sun�owerCanolaSoybean

f ABARES forecast.

2012–13f

2009–10

2006–07

2003–04

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

49

Oilseeds


Record Australian canola planted areaThe total area sown to canola is forecast to increase by 23 per cent in 2012–13 to a record 2.1 million hectares, as producers respond to relatively favourable canola prices compared with alternative crops, such as wheat and barley. This forecast increase is lower than producers originally intended, particularly in Victoria and South Australia, as a lack of rainfall in some areas discouraged producers from further increasing the area sown. The planted area is forecast to increase by 19 per cent in Western Australia (926 000 hectares); 39 per cent in New South Wales (550 000 hectares); 6 per cent in Victoria (370 000 hectares); and 32 per cent in South Australia (277 000 hectares).

Assuming a return to average yields, Australian canola production is forecast to increase by 4 per cent in 2012–13 to 2.9 million tonnes. At this forecast level, canola production in 2012–13 will be the largest on record.

Australian exports to riseIn the first 10 months of the 2011–12 financial year, the value of Australian canola exports increased year-on-year by 63 per cent to around $1.1 billion, reflecting an increase of 71 per cent in export shipments. For 2011–12 as a whole, canola export shipments are forecast to increase by 41 per cent to just over 2 million tonnes. With prices forecast to remain relatively high throughout the year, the value of Australian canola exports is forecast to increase by 35 per cent to $1.2 billion.

The Netherlands has been the major export destination for Australian canola in 2011–12, accounting for 46 per cent of all shipments. Other major destinations were Belgium (24 per cent) and Germany (15 per cent).

Australian canola export shipments are forecast to increase by 2 per cent in 2012–13 to 2.1 million tonnes. However, the value of canola exports is forecast to decline by 9 per cent to around $1.1 billion, which reflects an expected decline in export prices.

Australian canola exports by destination, July to April (’000 tonnes)

2009–10 2010–11 2011–12

Netherlands 0 635 870

Belgium 228 128 453

Germany 0 177 276

Pakistan 425 2 78

Denmark 0 0 63

Japan 181 66 47

France 0 46 45

United Arab Emirates 73 33 35

Bangladesh 74 9 15

Other 4 9 9

Total 985 1 105 1 891

50

Oilseeds


Outlook for oilseeds


WorldWorld Production Mt 454 434 473 9 0Production Mt 454 434 473 9.0C ti Mt 443 451 466 3 3Consumption Mt 443 451 466 3.3

il d l Mt 250 254 263 3 5– oilseed meal Mt 250 254 263 3.5bl il 147 153 157 2 6– vegetable oil Mt 147 153 157 2.6g

Exports Mt 107 105 113 7.6Exports Mt 107 105 113 7.6Closing stocks Mt 79 66 72 9 1Closing stocks Mt 79 66 72 9.1Stocks to use ratio % 18 15 15 0 0Stocks-to-use ratio % 18 15 15 0.0Soybeans indicator price US$/t 549 535 515 3 7Soybeans indicator price US$/t 549 535 515 – 3.7C l i di t i US$/ 432 625 580 7 2Canola indicator price US$/t 432 625 580 – 7.2AustraliaAustraliaTotal production kt 3 782 4 513 4 597 1.9Total production kt 3 782 4 513 4 597 1.9– winter kt 2 397 2 828 2 949 4.3– winter kt 2 397 2 828 2 949 4.3– summer kt 1 385 1 685 1 648 – 2.2– summer kt 1 385 1 685 1 648 – 2.2CanolaCanolaProd ction kt 2 382 2 815 2 935 4 3Production kt 2 382 2 815 2 935 4.3EExports kt 1 453 2 044 2 077 1.6p– value $m 855 1 156 1 051 – 9.1 value $ 855 1 156 1 051 9.1Price (Nov–Oct)Price (Nov Oct) (delivered Melbourne) A$/t 557 520 474 – 8.8 (delivered Melbourne) A$/t 557 520 474 8.8

f ABARES forecast.f ABARES forecast.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World, Hamburg; United States Department f ABARES forecast.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World, Hamburg; United States Department of Agriculture

f ABARES forecast.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World, Hamburg; United States Department of Agriculture


Lower sugar prices in 2012–13The world indicator price for raw sugar (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) is forecast to decline by around 11 per cent in 2012–13 to average US20 cents a pound (October to September). The forecast price decline reflects large closing stocks in 2011–12 and a forecast of record world production in 2012–13. While the world sugar indicator price is forecast to decline, it will still be favourable and well above US11.4 cents a pound, the average over the 10 years to 2008–09.

In 2011–12, the world indicator price for raw sugar is estimated to average US22.5 cents a pound, compared with US27 cents a pound in 2010–11. As at 12 June 2012, the daily world sugar indicator price was US20.4 cents a pound.

World sugar indicators

Mt2011–12USc/lb

Production

Indicator price (right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

Consumption

5

10

15

20

25

30

30

60

90

120

150

180

2012–13f

2009–10

2006–07

2003–04

2000–01

1997–98

1994–95

SugarBenjamin K Agbenyegah

52

Sugar


Record world sugar production in 2012–13World sugar production is forecast to increase by 2 million tonnes in 2012–13 to a record 178 million tonnes in response to favourable world sugar prices. Increased production of sugar cane is forecast for Brazil, China, India, Mexico, Australia and the United States. While aggregate cane production is forecast to increase, production of beet sugar in Europe is forecast to be lower, reflecting an assumed return to average yields following the bumper yields of 2011–12.

Sugar production in Brazil is forecast to increase by 2 million tonnes in 2012–13 (October to September) to a record 40 million tonnes, after declining for the second consecutive year in 2011–12. The forecast increase reflects a recovery from the poor crop in 2011–12 that resulted from adverse seasonal conditions, ageing cane plantings and crop diseases.

Indicator price, Intercontinental Exchange, daily, ended 12 June 2012

USc/lb

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

12 Jun2012

22 Mar2012

10 Jan2012

27 Oct2011

17 Aug2011

07 Jun2011

24 Mar2011

11 Jan2011

28 Oct2010

17 Aug2010

Forecast change in world sugar production, 2012–13

Mt

2011–12

2012–13

–2

4

2

6

8

10

12

World

Other

United States

Thailand

Pakistan

Mexico

India

EuropeanUnion

EasternEurope

China

Brazil

Australia

Argentina

53

Sugar


The proportion of sugar cane to be used to produce sugar in Brazil rather than ethanol (the ‘sugar share’) is forecast to remain largely unchanged in 2012–13, despite a forecast fall in world sugar prices. Strong demand for sugar in export markets and a forecast 7 per cent fall in anhydrous ethanol production are expected to support the proportion of cane for sugar production.

Indian sugar production is forecast to increase by 900 000 tonnes in 2012–13, to 29 million tonnes. This forecast increase reflects the combined effects of an expected increase in the area of cane harvested and an assumed normal monsoon season in 2012. The area planted to sugar cane is forecast to increase by around 2 per cent in 2012–13 to 4.9 million hectares, which is expected to be the fourth consecutive season in which the planted area has increased. Despite the forecast fall in sugar prices, sugar production is still expected to be more profitable than rice, vegetables and corn for Indian producers.

Sugar production in Mexico is forecast to increase by 700 000 tonnes in 2012–13 to 6 million tonnes. The forecast increase reflects a recovery from drought and strong import demand for sugar from the United States.

Chinese sugar production is forecast to rise by 6.6 per cent in 2012–13 to 13 million tonnes, driven by an increase in the area planted to sugar cane and sugar beet. The area planted to sugar cane and sugar beet is forecast to increase by 4 per cent and 15 per cent to 1.8 million hectares and 300 000 hectares, respectively, in response to favourable prices that have given sugar favourable margins compared with production alternatives, such as corn, rice and cassava. Additionally, this season the sugar and beet mill operators in China provided free or subsidised seed and fertiliser, tractors and irrigation equipment to encourage producers to increase the planted area. The area planted to sugar cane is the largest since 2007–08 and area planted to sugar beet is the largest since 2009–10.

Sugar production in Thailand is forecast to remain largely unchanged at around 10.6 million tonnes in 2012–13. A small expansion in the area planted to sugar cane is forecast as a result of government support programs and favourable market returns compared with production alternatives, such as cassava. However, the effect on production is expected to be minimal.

Sugar cane production and allocation, Brazil a

Mt %

Cane production

Sugar share(right axis)

a April–March years. f ABARES forecast.

Sugar production

2013–14f

2010–11

2007–08

2004–05

2001–02

1998–99

1995–96

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

54

Sugar


US sugar production is forecast to increase by 300 000 tonnes in 2012–13 to 7.8 million tonnes, driven mainly by an increase in sugar beet production. The forecast increase in sugar beet production is expected to be driven by favourable returns compared with production alternatives and higher yields achieved with genetically modified varieties. Sugar beet production comprises nearly 60 per cent of total US sugar production.

Sugar production in Europe is forecast to decrease by around 7 per cent in 2012–13 to 28.2 million tonnes, driven by a return to average yields after the bumper yields achieved in 2011–12. In the European Union, sugar production is forecast to decrease by 1.2 million tonnes to 16.7 million tonnes. Outside the European Union, sugar production is also forecast to fall, with declines of 500 000 tonnes and 300 000 tonnes expected in the Russian Federation and Ukraine, respectively. The area planted to sugar beet is estimated to have declined by 8 per cent in the Russian Federation and by 5 per cent in Ukraine because of adverse planting conditions.

Lower prices to boost world sugar consumptionWorld sugar consumption is forecast to grow by 2.5 per cent in 2012–13 to around 174 million tonnes. This forecast increase mainly reflects the combined effects of falling sugar prices, population growth and rising consumer incomes, particularly in developing countries such as China and India. The forecast consumption growth is similar to the average over the 10 years to 2010–11 of 2.4 per cent.

Recovery in world sugar exports in 2012–13World sugar exports are forecast to increase by 1.6 million tonnes in 2012–13 to 52.6 million tonnes. The forecast increase is driven by an increase in demand for sugar imports by the Russian Federation and Indonesia. Supplies available for export are forecast to increase in Brazil, Mexico and Australia.

The Russian Federation is forecast to increase sugar imports by 750 000 tonnes in 2012–13 to 1.5 million tonnes, in response to a forecast decrease in domestic sugar production.

In Indonesia, sugar imports are forecast to increase by 130 000 tonnes in 2012–13 to 3.1 million tonnes, which reflects a forecast increase in demand for sugar while domestic production is forecast to remain largely unchanged.

Sugar imports into the United States are forecast to remain largely unchanged in 2012–13 at 3.4 million tonnes but with more imports coming from Mexico and less from other exporters. Given sugar production forecast for the United States in 2012–13, it has been assumed that the United States Government will again set its tariff-free sugar import quota (October to September) above the minimum specified under its World Trade Organization obligations. In 2011–12, the United States increased its tariff-free sugar import quota from 1.2 million tonnes to 1.4 million tonnes. In 2012–13, US production will again be much smaller than its domestic consumption.

Mexico’s sugar exports are forecast to increase by 300 000 tonnes in 2012–13 to 1.5 million tonnes, driven by an increase in production and import demand from the United States.

Brazilian sugar exports are forecast to increase by 2 million tonnes in 2012–13 to 25 million tonnes. This forecast increase is driven by continued strong international demand and forecast record production.

55

Sugar


Sugar exports from India are forecast to fall by 1 million tonnes in 2012–13 to 2.5 million tonnes, reflecting a fall in the supply of sugar available for export. Although opening stocks in 2012–13 are forecast to be 4.6 per cent higher than the previous year, consumption is forecast to grow by 10.4 per cent. Additionally, India has been increasing its sugar stocks and closing stocks in 2012–13 are forecast to increase by 1.7 per cent.

Exports of sugar from the European Union are forecast to fall by 32.5 per cent in 2012–13 to 1.4 million tonnes, largely due to a forecast fall in production from last year’s record.

World sugar stocks rebuilding to continue in 2012–13A substantial surplus in world sugar production in 2012–13 is forecast to increase world closing stocks of sugar by 4.1 million tonnes to 67.4 million tonnes. If realised, this will be the highest closing stocks since 2007–08 and increase the stocks-to-use ratio to 38.8 per cent, compared with around 37.4 per cent in 2011–12.

Changes in world sugar exports, 2011–12 and 2012–13, by country

Mt

2011–12

2012–13

–5

–4

–3

–2

–1

1

2

3

World

Other

Thailand

Mexico

India

European Union

Brazil

Australia

Indicators of the world sugar balance

–15 %

Surplus/de�cit

Stocks-to-use ratio(right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

2012–13f

2009–10

2006–07

2003–04

2000–01

1997–98

1994–95

1991–92

10

20

30

40

50

–10

–5

Mt

5

10

56

Sugar


Australian sugar production to recover in 2012–13The average mill-gate return for sugar cane to Australian growers is forecast to fall by $3 a tonne in 2012–13 to $35 a tonne, primarily the result of forecast lower world prices.

Queensland Sugar Limited forecast its 2011–12 seasonal pool return to be in the range of $510 to $520 a tonne of sugar, International Polarity Scale, compared with $444 a tonne in 2010–11.

Australian sugar production is forecast to increase by around 700 000 tonnes in 2012–13 to 4.4 million tonnes. This forecast is driven by an increase in the area harvested and an assumed return to average sugar yields. Sugar yields were relatively low in 2011–12 with extensive areas of cane carried over from 2010–11 due to excessive rainfall. Carried over cane generally has lower sugar yields.

Australian sugar exports are forecast to increase by 12 per cent in 2012–13 to 3.4 million tonnes, largely the result of a forecast increase in production. Nevertheless the value of Australian sugar exports is forecast to decrease by 10 per cent in 2012–13 to $1.51 billion, due to forecast lower world prices.

Australian sugar production, exports and returns to cane growers

Mt 2010–11$/t

Production

Return to cane growers(right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

Exports

2012–13f

2009–10

2006–07

2003–04

2000–01

1997–98

1994–95

1991–92

10

20

30

40

50

60

1

2

3

4

5

6

57

Sugar


Outlook for sugar

2010 2011 2012 %2010 2011 2012 %–11 s –12 f –13 f change11 s 12 f 13 f change

World aWorld a Production Mt 166 0 175 8 177 8 1 1Production Mt 166.0 175.8 177.8 1.1– Brazil Mt 38 7 41 0 47 9 16 8– Brazil Mt 38.7 41.0 47.9 16.8Consumption Mt 165 5 169 5 173 8 2 5Consumption Mt 165.5 169.5 173.8 2.5Exports Mt 51 8 50 0 52 6 5 2Exports Mt 51.8 50.0 52.6 5.2Closing stocks Mt 57 0 63 3 67 4 6 5Closing stocks Mt 57.0 63.3 67.4 6.5Ch i k M 0 6 6 3 4 1 34 9Change in stocks Mt 0.6 6.3 4.1 – 34.9gStocks-to-use ratio % 34 37 39 3.7Stocks to use ratio 34 37 39 3.7Price USc/lb 27.7 22.5 20.0 – 11.1Price USc/lb 27.7 22.5 20.0 11.1

Australia bAustralia b Area ’000 ha 334 370 385 4 1Area ’000 ha 334 370 385 4.1P d ti kt 3 610 3 733 4 401 17 9Production c kt 3 610 3 733 4 401 17.9Exports kt 2 735 3 001 3 350 11 6Exports kt 2 735 3 001 3 350 11.6

l A$ 1 436 1 681 1 513 10 0– value A$m 1 436 1 681 1 513 – 10.0

a October–September years. b July–June years. c Raw tonnes actual. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate. a October–September years. b July–June years. c Raw tonnes actual. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Sugar Organizationa October–September years. b July–June years. c Raw tonnes actual. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Sugar Organizationa October–September years. b July–June years. c Raw tonnes actual. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Sugar Organizationa October September years. b July June years. c Raw tonnes actual. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Sugar Organization


World cotton prices lower in 2012–13The world indicator price for cotton (Cotlook ‘A’ index) is forecast to fall by 16.5 per cent in 2012–13 (August to July) to average US86 cents a pound. This forecast decline reflects expected large world cotton harvests in 2011–12 and 2012–13, and a modest recovery in world demand for cotton. Global cotton production is forecast to exceed consumption for the third consecutive year, returning world cotton stocks to high levels and putting downward pressure on cotton prices.

The world cotton price is estimated to average around US103 cents a pound in 2011–12, as world cotton stocks rise. The daily world cotton indicator price fell significantly from a high of US244 cents a pound in early March 2011 to US82 cents a pound on 1 June 2012. The recent price decline mainly reflects uncertainty in the world economy and the consequent impact on consumption.

World cotton indicators (annual)

Mt2011–12USc/lb

Production

World price (right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

Consumption

5

10

15

20

25

30

30

60

90

120

150

180

2012–13f

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

2000–01

CottonBenjamin K Agbenyegah

59

Cotton


World cotton production to decrease in 2012–13World cotton production is forecast to decrease to 25.5 million tonnes in 2012–13, down 5 per cent from the record harvest of 2011–12 . This reflects an expected 5 per cent fall in world cotton planted area in response to the forecast lower cotton prices in 2012–13. Lower cotton production is forecast for all major producing countries, except the United States.

Cotton production in China is forecast to decrease by 9 per cent in 2012–13 to 6.6 million tonnes. This reflects a forecast 6 per cent reduction in planted area in response to lower cotton prices.

Cotton production in India is forecast to decrease by 5.7 per cent in 2012–13 to 5.4 million tonnes, driven by an estimated 10 per cent fall in the area planted to cotton. Producers are switching to more favourably priced production alternatives in response to lower cotton prices. However, a forecast 4.6 per cent increase in the average yield due to increased planting of improved BT (bacillus thuringiensis) cotton varieties is expected to partially offset the forecast fall in planted area. BT cotton is expected to account for around 92 per cent of the total area planted to cotton in 2012–13.

Cotton production in Pakistan is forecast to decrease by 5.7 per cent in 2012–13 to 2.2 million tonnes, driven by a forecast 3 per cent fall in harvested area to 3.1 million hectares. Producers are expected to decrease the area planted to cotton in response to lower prices. In addition, the average yield is expected to decline by around 1 per cent, assuming average seasonal conditions.

Cotton production in the United States is forecast to increase to 3.7 million tonnes in 2012–13, 9 per cent higher than the drought and flood affected crop in 2011–12 . While plantings are estimated to have declined by 11 per cent, the abandonment rate is assumed to fall to 20 per cent, down from 36 per cent in 2011–12. Nevertheless, the forecast abandonment rate for 2012–13 is still higher than the average for the 10 years to 2010–11 of 10.6 per cent.

World cotton indicator price, daily, ended 7 June 2012

2011–12USc/lb

50

100

150

200

250

7 June2012

29 Feb2012

30 Nov2011

31 Aug2011

31 May2011

28 Feb2011

30 Nov2010

31 Aug2010

60

Cotton


Turkish cotton industryTurkey is the eighth largest cotton producer and the fourth largest consumer of raw cotton in the world. Turkey was the sixth largest producer but a significant fall in production over recent years has seen Brazil and Australia surpass Turkey as larger cotton producers. In 2009–10, production in Turkey was 381 000 tonnes, compared with an average of 838 000 tonnes over the 10 years to 2006–07. The harvested area in 2009–10 was 280 000 hectares, compared with an average of 689 000 hectares over the 10 years to 2006–07.

Cotton is the main source of raw material used in the textile and clothing sectors, which are important to the Turkish economy. The textile and clothing industry accounted for more than 10 per cent of Turkish gross domestic production. The textile industry accounts for more than 33 per cent of employment in the manufacturing sector and is a major source of income for many Turkish people.

Forecast changes in world cotton production, by country

Mt

2011–12 f

2012–13 f

–1.5

–1.0

–0.5

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

world

other

Turkey

Uzbekistan

Australia

Brazil

Pakistan

UnitedStates

India

China

f ABARES forecast.

Cotton indicators, Turkey

2012–13f

2009–10

2006–07

2003–04

2000–01

1997–98

1994–95

kt

Production

f ABARES forecast.

ImportsConsumption

500

1000

1500

2000

continued...

61

Cotton


Turkish cotton industry continued

In 2001, the Turkish Government introduced a program to reinvigorate the agricultural sector. By the end of 2005, as part of this program, it had constructed 22 dams and 19 power plants in the Harran Plain—an area that produces more than 50 per cent of Turkish cotton. More than 100 mechanical harvesters, 878 roller gins and 154 saw gin plants operate in Turkey.

Turkish cotton production rose by 20 per cent in 2010–11 to 457 300 tonnes; the first increase in three years. Turkish cotton production is estimated to have increased by a further 48 per cent in 2011–12 to 675 000 tonnes, mainly as a result of a 50 per cent rise in the area planted to cotton. Cotton production is forecast to decrease by 15 per cent in 2012–13 to around 600 000 tonnes, reflecting a smaller area planted to cotton in response to lower cotton prices.

Despite the recent increase in cotton production, Turkey still imports a large volume of cotton; imports are forecast to increase by 47 per cent in 2012–13 to 802 000 tonnes. Turkish cotton consumption is forecast to increase by 7 per cent in 2012–13 to 1.2 million tonnes, well above domestic production.

Turkey has a fully liberalised raw cotton trade; there are no quota restrictions on exports or imports and no duties or levies charged on traded cotton. However, the Turkish Government recently imposed anti-dumping duties on imports of yarn, fabrics and garments, which India is challenging under World Trade Organization rules.

Harvested cotton area and yield, Turkey

’000 ha t/ha

Yield (right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

Area harvested

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

2012–13f

2009–10

2006–07

2003–04

2000–01

1997–98

1994–95

62

Cotton


World cotton consumption to increase in 2012–13World cotton consumption is forecast to increase by 3 per cent in 2012–13 to 23.9 million tonnes, the first increase in two years. This forecast increase reflects an expected fall in the world cotton-to-polyester price ratio, an assumed gradual recovery in apparel demand in the United States and Europe, and expected strong economic growth in China and India—two of the world’s largest cotton consuming markets.

Cotton’s share of world fibre consumption is expected to grow at a modest rate as the gap between cotton and polyester prices narrows after widening in 2010–11.

World cotton indicator price, daily, ended 7 June 2012

2011–12USc/lb

50

100

150

200

250 Cotlook 'A' indicator

Polyester staple, China(cotton equivalent)

7 Jun2012

23 Feb2012

24 Nov2011

25 Aug2011

26 May2011

24 Feb2011

25 Nov2010

26 Aug2010

Stocks-to-use ratio for cotton

Mt

%

World closingstocks-to-use ratio(right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

World consumptionchange

–4

–3

–2

–1

1

2

3

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2012–13f

2009–10

2006–07

2003–04

2000–01

63

Cotton


Record world cotton stocks in 2012–13World cotton production is forecast to exceed world consumption in 2012–13, for a third consecutive year, which would lift the world cotton stocks-to-use ratio to a record high of 68 per cent. Global closing stocks of cotton are forecast to increase by 11.6 per cent in 2012–13 to a record 16.3 million tonnes. Closing stocks are forecast to be higher in all major cotton producing and consuming countries and much of the increase in world cotton stocks is expected to occur in China and the United States. The two countries are forecast to account for around 44 per cent and 19 per cent, respectively, of the growth in world stocks.

China more than doubled its national reserve stocks of cotton during 2011–12 to 5.4 million tonnes through record imports. At the end of 2011–12, the reserve stocks in China accounted for 37.5 per cent of world stocks.

World trade lower in 2012–13World cotton exports are forecast to decrease by around 5 per cent in 2012–13 to 8.1 million tonnes. This forecast decrease reflects expected lower import demand by China and increases in domestic demand in most major producing countries.

China’s cotton imports are forecast to fall by 35 per cent in 2012–13 to around 3 million tonnes as it imported a record 4.7 million tonnes in 2011–12 in a drive to increase its reserve stocks. Despite the forecast fall in 2012–13, the import volume is still expected to be higher than the average over the 10 years to 2010–11 of 2 million tonnes.

Cotton exports by India, the world’s second largest exporter, are forecast to fall by 53 per cent in 2012–13 to around 967 000 tonnes, driven by forecasts of lower domestic production and lower import demand from China, which was very strong in 2011–12. In 2011–12, India exported a record 2.1 million tonnes of raw cotton; exports exceeded the government-set target for the year, which led to a government ban being placed on cotton exports for two months. While uncertainty exists about Indian Government trade policies that may affect its cotton exports, it is assumed that India’s cotton exports will be larger than the average over the eight years to 2010–11 of 963 000 tonnes.

Pakistan and Brazil are the other major cotton exporting countries for which decreases in exports are forecast in 2012–13. Cotton exports are forecast to decrease by 55 per cent and 2.2 per cent to 109 000 tonnes and 958 000 tonnes, respectively, for Pakistan and Brazil. In both cases, the decreases reflect a forecast reduction in supply of cotton available for export.

Cotton exports by the United States, the world’s leading cotton exporter, are forecast to increase by 5 per cent in 2012–13 to 2.6 million tonnes. The increase will be driven by a forecast rise in production lifting the supply of cotton available for export. Consequently, the US share of the global cotton trade is expected to increase by 5 percentage points to 32 per cent in 2012–13.

Cotton exports by Uzbekistan are forecast to increase by 4 per cent in 2012–13 to around 566 000 tonnes. This increase will be driven by a forecast increase in the supply of cotton available for export. While production is forecast to decrease by 2.4 per cent, opening stocks are forecast to be around 30 per cent higher than in 2011–12.

64

Cotton


Australian cotton production slightly lower in 2012–13Australian cotton production (harvested from March to July) is forecast to be 1.05 million tonnes in 2012–13, down only slightly from the estimated record of around 1.1 million tonnes produced in 2011–12. This forecast reflects another year in which irrigation dams are expected to hold plentiful supplies of water and gross margins that still favour production of irrigated cotton compared with alternative crops, despite the forecast decline in world cotton prices.

The 2011–12 floods adversely affected Australia’s cotton crop in early 2012, particularly in the Gwydir, Namoi, Mungindi and Walgett regions in northern New South Wales and the Mungindi, Dirranbandi and St George regions in southern Queensland. However, the effect on total production is estimated to have been small.

The average storage level of public irrigation dams serving the Australian cotton-growing regions was 97 per cent of capacity on 13 June 2012, which is far higher than the 31 per cent at the same time in 2010.

The return to Australian cotton growers at the gin-gate is forecast to decrease by 9 per cent in 2012–13 to $502 a bale (227 kilograms) of lint (including the value of cottonseed and net of ginning costs), reflecting the forecast decline in world cotton prices. This is the lowest return to Australian cotton growers since 2007–08, when growers received $485 a bale, and lower than the 10-year average to 2009–10 of around $553 a bale. However, the forecast return for 2012–13 is still favourable, when compared with returns available from production alternatives.

Forward cash prices for lint on offer to Australian cotton growers at 6 June 2012 were around $355 a bale for 2012 delivery (2011–12 crop) and $360 a bale for 2013 delivery.

Storage levels of main irrigation dams, at 13 June 2012

%

2010

2011

20

40

60

80

100

120

2012

Oth

er

QueenslandNew South Wales

Bear

dmor

e(S

t Geo

rge)

Fairb

airn

(Em

eral

d)

Lesl

ie(D

arlin

g D

owns

)

Oth

er

Burr

endo

ng(M

acqu

arie

)

Pind

ari

(Mac

inty

re)

Keep

it(N

amoi

)

Gle

nlyo

n(M

acin

tyre

)

Cope

ton

(Gw

ydir)

65

Cotton


Record Australian cotton exportsAustralian cotton exports are forecast to increase by 11.5 per cent in 2012–13 to a record 1.1 million tonnes. This forecast increase is driven by record cotton production in 2011–12 and the forecast of another large harvest in 2012–13. If realised, Australia would surpass India to become the second largest exporter of cotton in the world; second to the United States.

Australian cotton production, exports and gin-gate returns

kt2011–12$/bale

Production

Gin gate return a(right axis)

a Value of lint and cottonseed, less ginning costs. f ABARES forecast.

Exports

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2012–13f

2009–10

2006–07

2003–04

2000–01

1998–99

1995–96

Outlook for cotton


World aWorld a Production Mt 25 3 26 8 25 5 – 4 9Production Mt 25.3 26.8 25.5 – 4.9Consumption Mt 24 6 23 2 23 9 3 0Consumption Mt 24.6 23.2 23.9 3.0E t Mt 8 1 8 5 8 1 4 7Exports Mt 8.1 8.5 8.1 – 4.7Closing stocks Mt 9.3 14.6 16.3 11.6gStocks-to-use ratio % 37.7 62.9 68.2 8.4Stocks to use ratio % 37.7 62.9 68.2 8.4Cotlook ’A’ index USc/lb 164.3 103.0 86.0 – 16.5Cotlook A index USc/lb 164.3 103.0 86.0 16.5

A t li bAustralia b Area harvested ’000 ha 590 600 525 12 5Area harvested ’000 ha 590 600 525 – 12.5Lint production kt 898 1 080 1 050 2 8Lint production kt 898 1 080 1 050 – 2.8Exports kt 505 956 1 066 11 5Exports kt 505 956 1 066 11.5

l A$ 1 367 2 555 2 293 10 3– value A$m 1 367 2 555 2 293 – 10.3

a August–July years. c July–June years. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate. a August–July years. c July–June years. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate. a August–July years. c July–June years. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; United States Department of Agriculturea August–July years. c July–June years. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; United States Department of Agriculturea August July years. c July June years. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; United States Department of Agriculture


Stronger demand for high quality grapes supporting pricesIn 2011–12, the weighted average wine grape price is estimated to increase by 9 per cent to $450 a tonne, as demand for high quality grapes has strengthened. This has been the first upward movement in the average wine grape price since 2007–08.

Several factors put upward pressure on wine grape prices in 2011–12. First, wine inventories declined nearly 12 per cent between 2007–08 and 2010–11, leaving some wineries unable to fully meet the demand of their market and hence increase their intake of wine grapes. Second, the effect of wet and humid conditions during the 2010–11 growing season on the overall quality of the fruit has led to stronger demand for high quality fruit for the 2011–12 vintage and for back-blending into wine made in 2010–11. Up to 15 per cent of wine can be back-blended—a process used to add sweetness and character to wine—without the need to declare the blended varieties on the label. Third, The Wine Group (TWG) purchased Australia’s fifth largest winery (a 100 000 tonne facility in Loxton, South Australia) in August 2011, restarted production, and plans to significantly increase production next year. This additional competition for wine grapes has had a positive effect on prices in the region. Higher demand for some key varieties, such as muscat gordo blanco grapes for Muscato, and a rebound in the popularity of cabernet sauvignon and merlot, are also having a positive effect on the price of those grape varieties.

In 2012–13, the weighted average price for wine grapes is forecast to increase by almost 4.5 per cent to $470 a tonne. Factors expected to support this forecast price increase are lower expected wine production in 2011–12 which, at its earliest, will enter the market in 2012–13; a further reduction in wine stocks; and stronger competition for wine grapes in the warm inland areas.

The Australian wine industry is expected to continue facing strong competition in export markets. Between 2000–01 and 2010–11, about 60 per cent of Australia’s wine production was exported. Because of the industry’s dependence on export markets, the industry is vulnerable to changes in global economic conditions, which result in changing demand. With slow to modest income growth assumed for Australia’s two largest export markets—the United Kingdom and the United States—a relatively high Australian dollar and ample supply of wine on the world market, international demand for Australian wine is not expected to strengthen significantly in the short term.

Wine and wine grapesCaroline Gunning-Trant

67

Wine and wine grapes


Australian wine grape production and prices

kt2011–12$/t

Wine grape price (right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

Production

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

300

600

900

1200

1500

2012–13f

2009–10

2006–07

2003–04

2000–01

Return to average yields to lift production in 2012–13Wine grape production is estimated to be slightly lower in 2011–12 at 1.53 million tonnes. The damage vineyards in many regions in eastern Australia sustained during the wet 2010–11 growing season negatively affected 2011–12 yields. This is because fruit setting in any given season occurs about four weeks after bud burst in the previous season. Fewer bunches and smaller berries in 2011–12 led to yields that were well below average in many eastern Australian regions. Additionally, the cool and wet growing season in eastern Australia increased the risk of diseases, such as downy and powdery mildew, for the second year in a row. Late in the season, ongoing humid conditions increased the incidence of botrytis, a fungus that causes the berry to become overripe on the vine, resulting in shrivelled, raisin-like clusters of fruit.

The decline in grape production is estimated to occur principally in New South Wales and South Australia, where yields were generally lower across all varieties as a result of the damage the vines sustained last season. Yields in some eastern regions were also affected by several heavy and prolonged rainfall events late in the season. Although yields were lower, grape quality was reported to be good.

In 2012–13, wine grape production is forecast to increase by 5 per cent to around 1.61 million tonnes. Seasonal conditions in eastern Australia are assumed to be drier than in the past two years, resulting in fewer disease pressures and a return to average yields. Additionally, the bearing area is forecast to increase by 1 per cent to 155 819 hectares. The forecast increase in bearing area reflects vines planted over the past three years coming into full bearing. Based on past plantings, it is estimated that more than 6200 hectares of non-bearing vines will come into bearing in the coming years. Also supporting the forecast for higher production in 2012–13 is the plentiful supply of irrigation water.

68



Export growth constrainedThe Australian wine industry has been adversely affected by an abundant supply of wine on the world market, the global economic slowdown and a strong Australian dollar relative to the currencies of Australia’s major wine export destinations. As a result, the volume of Australian wine exports is expected to decline by almost 3 per cent in 2011–12 to 707 million litres. In the first 10 months of 2011–12, the volume of exports to five of Australia’s top seven export markets fell, relative to the same period a year ago, including the United Kingdom (–2 per cent), Canada (–13 per cent), China (–22 per cent), Germany (–2 per cent) and Denmark (–11 per cent). Shipments to the United States (Australia’s second largest export market) and New Zealand increased by 5 per cent and 6 per cent, respectively. The increase in exports to the United States in the first 10 months of 2011–12 reflected stronger demand stemming from the modest economic recovery and a 43 per cent increase in exports of bulk wine, most of which occurred after January 2012.

Australian wine exports

billion2011–12$/L

Unit value (right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

Value (2011–12 $)

2012–13f

2009–10

2006–07

2003–04

2000–01

Volume (litres)

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Australian wine exports, by country

ML 2011–12$m

Export value (right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

Rest of world

2012–13f

2009–10

2006–07

2003–04

2000–01

China

Canada

United States

United Kingdom

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

69



The changing landscape in export marketsThe United States, the United Kingdom and Canada have traditionally been Australia’s three largest markets for wine, accounting for an average of around 70 per cent of Australia’s exports by volume since 2000–01. However, since 2008–09 that share declined as competing exporting countries expanded sales into these markets (see box).

In recent years, China has emerged as Australia’s fourth largest market. In 2010–11, roughly the same proportion of Australian wine exports was shipped to China as to Canada (in both volume and value terms) at 7 per cent. In the first 10 months of 2011–12, this share fell to just under 6 per cent by volume but climbed to over 9 per cent by value, surpassing Canada as the third most important export market in value terms. The change in market share over this period consisted of a 67 per cent decline in bulk exports and a 4 per cent decline in white wine exports year-on-year. However, exports of bottled red wine —the preferred option for Chinese consumers that is typically given as a gift—increased by 25 per cent. Bottled red wine accounted for 75 per cent of total Australian wine exports to China in the first 10 months of 2011–12, compared with an average share of 46 per cent over the past three years. The move away from lower value bulk wine had a positive effect on the average unit export value, and led to an 18 per cent rise in total export earnings to China over the stated period compared with the same period last year.

Competitive pressures in export markets have led to changes in the way Australia exports wine and its unit export value. Between 2008–09 and 2010–11, the volume of bulk wine exports increased steadily, as did their share of total exports. In the first 10 months of 2011–12, bulk wine exports accounted for 52 per cent of total wine shipments (which includes all table wine, wine in soft packs and alternative packaging, fortified, sparkling and carbonated wines, coolers and vermouth), compared with 47 per cent in the same period a year earlier and 13 per cent a decade ago.

Continued growth in bulk exports reflects a shift toward offshore packaging, largely in the United States and the United Kingdom, to minimise transportation costs and thus increase the price competitiveness of Australian wine abroad. In contrast to the trend in bulk exports, export sales of bottled wine have declined significantly. The volume of bottled wine exports fell by 13 per cent in the first 10 months of 2011–12 compared with the same period a year earlier. Additionally, the share of bottled wine exports in total wine exports fell to 44 per cent over this period, compared with 50 per cent a year ago and over 80 per cent a decade ago. Wine exported in soft packs or alternative packaging; fortified, sparkling and carbonated wines; coolers and vermouth have together accounted for the remaining 4 per cent of Australia’s export share, by volume, for a decade. Because the unit export value of bulk wine is, on average, only one-quarter that of bottled wine, the higher proportion of bulk exports is estimated to contribute to a 6 per cent decline in total export returns in 2011–12 to $1.8 billion.

In 2012–13, the volume of Australian exports is forecast to increase by 2 per cent to around 720 million litres. This increase is expected to come principally from exports to the United States, where assumed modest income growth is expected to lead to an increase in demand for Australian wine. Additionally, the upward trend in bulk wine exports that began in 2011–12 is forecast to continue in 2012–13, with some strengthening in demand for bottled exports also expected.

70



In addition to the United States, the steadily increasing proportion of lower valued bulk exports is expected to stimulate some additional demand in overseas markets. With the average unit export value forecast to increase slightly in 2012–13, export earnings are forecast to increase by 2 per cent to $1.9 billion.

The domestic marketTotal wine sales in Australia are estimated to increase by almost 1 per cent in 2011–12 to 534 million litres, driven by a significant increase in sales of imported wine. Domestic sales of Australian wine are estimated to fall by 2 per cent to 454 million litres, following a downward trend in wine sales between July 2011 and March 2012. Over this period, sales of all wine types were lower year-on-year, except bottled table wine, which increased by 4 per cent. Domestic sales of Australian wine in soft packs and other types of containers fell by 7 per cent, sparkling wine by 2 per cent, fortified wine by 10 per cent, carbonated wine by 11 per cent and other wine types, such as vermouth, by 6 per cent.

The volume of wine imports is estimated to increase by 20 per cent in 2011–12 to 80 million litres. The strength of the Australian dollar, relative to the New Zealand dollar and the euro, has reduced the unit import value of New Zealand and European wines in Australian dollars, and is supporting import growth. Imports from New Zealand, principally sauvignon blanc, accounted for nearly 70 per cent of total wine imports into Australia over the past three years. In the first nine months of 2011–12 the volume of wine imports from New Zealand was 16 per cent higher than the same period in 2010–11. Imported French wine, principally sparkling wine, increased by 44 per cent year-on-year in the same period. Over the past decade, the unit import value of French wine has been about three times the average unit value for wines from all other countries. However, between July 2011 and March 2012, it was 24 per cent lower, year-on-year, and just over two-and-a-half times the average unit value of wines from all other countries.

Export unit value of wine, by container type

2011–12$/L

Red bottled

White bottled

f ABARES forecast.

Red bulk

White bulk

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2011–12f

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

71



In 2012–13, total sales of wine in Australia (including imports) are forecast to increase by 1 per cent to 540 million litres, with continued expansion in sales of imported wine. Import growth is forecast to be at an annual rate of 12 per cent in 2012–13 (equivalent to around 90 million litres). Despite growing sales of some bottled white wine, total sales of Australian wine in the domestic market are forecast to fall by 1 per cent in 2012–13 to 450 million litres, given the lower 2011–12 vintage and wine stocks.

Australian import volumes, by wine type

ML

f ABARES forecast.

Other

2012–13f

2009–10

2006–07

2003–04

2000–01

Sparkling

Red table wine

White table wine

20

40

60

80

100

Domestic sales of Australian wine, by type

ML

f ABARES forecast.

Other

2012–13f

2009–10

2006–07

2003–04

2000–01

Carbonated

Forti�ed

Sparkling

Red table wine

White table wine

100

200

300

400

500

72



Australia’s market share in the UK and US wine marketsBy far the two most important export markets for Australian wine are the United Kingdom and the United States. In 2010–11, Australia shipped 248 million litres to the United Kingdom, or one-third of its total export volume, and 176 million litres to the United States, equivalent to 24 per cent of its total export volume. While the combined share of Australia’s exports shipped to these markets was significant, it has been slowly declining since 2002–03. In recent years, the effect of the high Australian dollar, weak economic conditions in the United Kingdom and the United States and the highly competitive world wine market contributed to a decline in Australian wine exports to these markets and a decline of Australia’s market share in each country.

In contrast, the total volume of table wine imports (which excludes sparkling and fortified wines) increased in both the United States and the United Kingdom over the past decade. Total table wine imports by the United Kingdom have been relatively stable since 2005; the 2008–09 global financial crisis resulted in only a slight decline in total imports that has since rebounded. US table wine imports have been trending upwards since 2001, with significant spikes in 2005 and 2008, before a temporary decline in 2009 as a result of the global financial crisis, and subsequently rebounding.

Imports of table wine from eight countries account for 90 per cent of total UK table wine imports by volume. In 2006, Australia was tied with France as the largest suppliers of table wine to the United Kingdom, with a 22 per cent share (by volume) of the import market. By 2011, Australia’s share had fallen to 19 per cent, reflecting the steady rise of table wine imports from countries such as Spain, Chile, Italy and New Zealand. In terms of value, the significant rise in the proportion of bulk wines imported from Australia reduced Australia’s share of the import market from 20 per cent in 2006 to 11 per cent in 2011, putting it third behind France (37 per cent) and Italy (15 per cent).

UK and US imports of table wine

ML

United Kingdom

United States

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2011200820052002

continued...

73



Australia’s market share in the UK and US wine markets continued

Like the United Kingdom, imports from only eight countries account for the majority (95 per cent) of total imports of table wine into the United States. Since 2006, Italy has held more than a 25 per cent share of the import market for table wine. While Australia controlled the same share of the import market as Italy in 2006, by 2011 that share had fallen by 10 percentage points, reflecting strong competition from Argentina and Chile in that market. The unit import value of wines from Chile and Argentina were between 12 per cent and 16 per cent less than the average unit import value of Australian wines (in US dollars) in 2011.

UK import market share, by volume, 2006 and 2011

Australia 22%

2006Total table wine imports: 1264 million litres

France 22%

Italy 13%

United States 10%

Spain 8%

Chile 7%

South Africa 7%

New Zealand 2%

Rest of world 11%

Australia 19%


France 17%

Italy 16%

Spain 12%

United States 9%

Chile 8%

South Africa 6%

New Zealand 4%

Rest of world 8%

continued...

74



Australia’s market share in the UK and US wine markets continued

US import market share, by volume, 2006 and 2011

Italy 29%


Australia 29%

France 14%

Chile 7%

Argentina 5%

Spain 4%

Germany 4%

New Zealand 2%

Rest of world 5%

Italy 27%

Australia 19%

France 8%

Chile 13%

Argentina 14%

Spain 6%

Germany 3%

New Zealand 3%

Rest of world 6%


Outlook for wine and wine grapes


Bearing area ’000 ha 154 156 158 1.1Bearing area 000 ha 154 156 158 1.1Wine grape production sWine grape production sRed wine kt na b 817 853 4 5Red wine kt na b 817 853 4.5White wine kt na b 716 760 6 2White wine kt na b 716 760 6.2

k 1 563 1 532 1 613 5 3Total a kt 1 563 1 532 1 613 5.3Wine exports Wine exports Volume ML 727 707 720 1.9Volume ML 727 707 720 1.9Value A$m 1 957 1 840 1 884 2.4Value A$m 1 957 1 840 1 884 2.4Australian wine grape price A$/t 413 450 470 4 4Australian wine grape price A$/t 413 450 470 4.4

a Total production excludes multipurpose grapes. b For 2010–11, the Australian Bureau of Statistics did not publish Australian wine grape production by colour. They only published total wine grape production. f ABARESa Total production excludes multipurpose grapes. b For 2010–11, the Australian Bureau of Statistics did not publish Australian wine grape production by colour. They only published total wine grape production. f ABARESa Total production excludes multipurpose grapes. b For 2010–11, the Australian Bureau of Statistics did not publish Australian wine grape production by colour. They only published total wine grape production. f ABARES forecast. na Not available.

a Total production excludes multipurpose grapes. b For 2010–11, the Australian Bureau of Statistics did not publish Australian wine grape production by colour. They only published total wine grape production. f ABARES forecast. na Not available. Sources: ABARES; Wine Australia, Price Dispersion Report, Adelaide; Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian Wine

publish Australian wine grape production by colour. They only published total wine grape production. f ABARES forecast. na Not available. Sources: ABARES; Wine Australia, Price Dispersion Report, Adelaide; Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian Wine and Grape Industry, cat. no. 1329.0

forecast. na Not available. Sources: ABARES; Wine Australia, Price Dispersion Report, Adelaide; Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian Wine and Grape Industry, cat. no. 1329.0

; , p p , ; ,and Grape Industry, cat. no. 1329.0

AgricultureLivestock


The Australian weighted average saleyard price of beef cattle is forecast to fall by 3 per cent in 2012–13 to 320 cents a kilogram (dressed weight). Demand for re-stocker cattle is expected to fall during 2012–13 in response to successful herd rebuilding over the past two years, which has resulted in the national herd increasing to its largest since 1976–77. In addition, shifting international demand for Australian beef, from higher valued chilled and grain fed beef toward lower value frozen and grass fed varieties is likely to adversely affect export prices, which will in turn place downward pressure on domestic saleyard prices.

Australian herd rebuildingThe national cattle herd is estimated to increase by 5 per cent in 2011–12 to 30.2 million head. Good rainfall in most cattle-producing regions in 2011–12 contributed to continued high pasture growth and fodder production, and maintained water supplies. In response, producers continued purchasing young re-stocker cattle and held back female cattle and calves for herd rebuilding. In 2012–13, growth in the national cattle herd is forecast to slow to 4 per cent, to around 31.4 million head.

Australian cattle slaughter and saleyard price

‘000head

Slaughter

Saleyard price(right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

2011–12c/kg

100

200

300

400

500

2000

4000

6000

8000

10 000

2012–13f

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

Beef and vealClay Mifsud

77

Beef and veal


Slaughter and productionThe total number of cattle slaughtered in 2011–12 is estimated to fall by 3 per cent to 7.9 million head, the lowest since 1988–89. This is the result of an estimated 8 per cent fall in female cattle slaughter and a 7 per cent fall in calf slaughter, as producers continue to retain stock for herd rebuilding. Conversely, male cattle slaughter is estimated to rise by 4 per cent, but this is not enough to offset the reduced slaughter of female cattle and calves.

Despite lower cattle slaughter, beef and veal production in 2011–12 is estimated to remain unchanged at around 2.1 million tonnes. Average adult carcass weights have risen to record highs in all states except Victoria and Western Australia. For the first 10 months of 2011–12, adult carcass weights averaged 288 kilograms nationally, 2 per cent higher than the same period last year. Gains were highest in Tasmania (4.0 per cent to 289 kilograms), New South Wales (3.1 per cent to 285 kilograms) and Queensland (2.0 per cent to 303 kilograms). Growth in carcass weights is largely the result of the proportion of heavier males in the slaughter increasing to 53 per cent, the highest since 1988–89.

In 2012–13, a forecast 2 per cent increase in cattle slaughter to 8.1 million head will underpin a forecast 3 per cent increase in beef production to 2.2 million tonnes. Average carcass weights in 2012–13 are expected to remain close to the record highs achieved in 2011–12, resulting in beef production growing faster than the number of cattle slaughtered. Increased import demand from the United States and many smaller markets is expected to contribute to increased yardings of older cattle.

Beef and veal export volumes to riseAustralian beef and veal exports in 2011–12 are estimated to increase by 2 per cent to 955 000 tonnes (shipped weight). Japan, the United States and the Republic of Korea are estimated to account for 69 per cent of total exports in 2011–12, despite growth achieved in shipments to other markets, such as Chinese Taipei and the ASEAN nations (excluding Indonesia).

Average adult carcass weights

kg

2009–102010–11

2011–12 YTD

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

AustraliaTas.SAWA Vic.NSWQld

YTD year to date.

78

Beef and veal


In 2012–13, beef and veal export volumes are forecast to increase by 2 per cent to 970 000 tonnes (shipped weight). Shipments to the United States and many smaller markets, including Chinese Taipei, the Middle East and ASEAN nations (excluding Indonesia), are forecast to rise, but exports to Japan and the Republic of Korea are forecast to decline. In these North Asian markets, ongoing competition from US beef and higher domestic production are likely to result in reduced demand for Australian beef.

Greater competition in Japan Beef and veal exports to Japan are estimated to fall by 7 per cent in 2011–12 to 325 000 tonnes (shipped weight), on account of increased competition from US beef imports. With little change in overall Japanese demand for imported beef, and US beef generally more highly sought after because of its higher marbling rates, shipments of US beef to Japan in 2011–12 are estimated to rise by 20 per cent, at the expense of beef from Australia, New Zealand and Canada. Additionally, the continued relatively high Australian–US exchange rate in 2011–12 provided the United States with a competitive edge in the market.

In 2012–13, increasing competition from US beef is forecast to cause Australian beef exports to Japan to fall a further 3 per cent to 315 000 tonnes. Over the past five years, Japanese imports of US beef have increased by an average 22 000 tonnes per year, while imports of Australian beef have fallen by an average 15 000 tonnes per year. This trend is expected to continue in 2012–13, resulting in the Australian share of Japanese beef imports falling from 63 per cent to 60 per cent, and the US share increasing from 25 per cent to 29 per cent. Japanese beef consumption has remained steady since 2004–05 and is unlikely to change substantially over the coming year, partly because of lower retail prices of pig meat and poultry.

Australian beef exports, by destination

kt

Other

200

400

600

800

1000

2012–13f

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

f ABARES forecast.

Korea, Republic ofUnited StatesJapan

79

Beef and veal


Increased demand for Australian manufacturing beef in the United StatesBeef and veal exports to the United States in 2011–12 are estimated to increase 28 per cent to 205 000 tonnes (shipped weight). The factors contributing to supply of US beef available for domestic consumption falling to its lowest since 1996–97 and resulting in increased demand for imports, including from Australia, are: • US beef production in 2011–12 is estimated to fall 2 per cent to 11.8 million tonnes

because of reduced cattle slaughter and ongoing fallout relating to Lean Finely Textured Beef (see box).

• US beef exports in 2011–12 are estimated to rise 8 per cent because of substantial increases in returns from the North Asian, Mexican, Canadian and Russian markets.

The resulting increased demand for Australian beef to meet the domestic shortfall has contributed to the US 90CL beef import price (in Australian dollar terms) averaging an estimated 5 per cent higher over 2011–12, offering additional returns to Australian exporters.

Exports to the United States in 2012–13 are forecast to increase by 7 per cent to 220 000 tonnes. Seasonal conditions are assumed to improve in many US cattle producing regions in the coming year, and this is expected to lead to a fall in US cattle slaughter as producers contemplate rebuilding herds. As a result, US beef production is forecast to fall by 5 per cent in 2012–13, which will support higher demand for imported beef, including from Australia. US beef import prices are therefore expected to remain close to historical highs. This offers Australian exporters incentive to divert manufacturing beef from other markets to the United States.

US beef imports, by source

kt

Other

2012–13f

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

f ABARES forecast.

New ZealandCanadaAustralia

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

80

Beef and veal


Lean Finely Textured Beef and implications for Australian beef exports to the United StatesLean Finely Textured Beef (LFTB) was developed in the United States to increase the supply of lean beef. It is made from US-origin beef, and is produced in three stages:

• fat is melted from ground beef scraps and connective tissue

• fat is separated from the remaining meat using centrifugal force, and ammonia is used as an antimicrobial

• the extracted ‘lean meat’ is added to ground beef, sausages and canned meat to bring about the desired lean-to-fat ratio.

Common lean-to-fat ratios in the United States are 95:5, 90:10, 85:15, 80:20 and 73:27. LFTB has been widely used in the United States Department of Agriculture’s National School Lunch Program, as well as in the foodservice sector and sold through retail outlets.

Since March 2012, LFTB has been the subject of sustained media criticism in the United States. Criticisms have centred on:

• the quality of beef trimmings used being of poor nutritional value

• the application of ammonia as a cleaning agent (despite removal of all residues before sale)

• the absence of labelling requirements for ground beef blended with LFTB that prevents consumers choosing whether they wish to purchase.

As well, increasing media use of the term ‘pink slime’ implies LFTB is in some way less safe to consume than other beef.

A consumer backlash caused many large supermarkets and fast food outlets to remove LFTB from sale, despite it passing all relevant food safety standards set by the United States Department of Agriculture. In addition, of the retail outlets that still stock LFTB, many now have it clearly labelled, so consumers can make informed choices. In response to lower demand, the two largest producers (Beef Products Inc. and Cargill) announced a reduction in production of LFTB, the latter by more than 50 per cent.

Australian manufacturing beef is a primary competitor to LFTB in the US ground beef market, and is expected to continue gaining market share in the short term. Reduced LFTB supply at a time when total US beef production is also declining has resulted in increased demand for imported manufacturing beef. This contributed to the US 90CL beef import price increasing 5 per cent year-on-year in 2011–12, offering additional returns to Australian exporters.

81

Beef and veal


Decline in shipments to the Republic of KoreaBeef and veal exports to the Republic of Korea in 2011–12 are forecast to decline by 10 per cent to 125 000 tonnes (shipped weight). Greater Korean beef production, combined with increased imports of US beef, have resulted in reduced demand for Australian beef. It is estimated that in 2011–12 an increasing proportion of Korea’s growing beef consumption will be supplied by Hanwoo beef (bos taurus coreanae—Korean native cattle). The Korean Government began allocating subsidies to farmers to increase cattle slaughter and reduce the herd from record highs.

In 2012–13, beef and veal exports to the Republic of Korea are forecast to decline 2 per cent to 122 000 tonnes. This is because Korean beef production is estimated to remain high, resulting in slowing demand for imports, and the Australian dollar is assumed to average parity with the US dollar, resulting in Australian beef continuing to face strong competition from US beef.

Increased exports to smaller marketsBeef and veal exports to smaller markets are estimated to increase by 5 per cent to 300 000 tonnes (shipped weight) in 2011–12. Increased shipments to Chinese Taipei, the Middle East, Latin America and Hong Kong have offset lower exports to the Russian Federation and Indonesia.

Shipments of Australian beef to Chinese Taipei in 2011–12 are estimated to increase by 23 per cent to around 38 000 tonnes, with this offset by lower imports of US-origin beef. From 20 March 2012 the Chinese Taipei Food and Drug Administration increased the number of tests on beef imports for the banned substance, ractopamine. This resulted in near cessation in shipments from the United States, where ractopamine is widely used.

Beef exports to Indonesia in 2011–12 are estimated to fall 16 per cent to 38 000 tonnes because of a reduction in the Indonesian beef import quota. As part of its drive to achieve beef self sufficiency by 2014, the Indonesian Government reduced the quota to 34 000 tonnes for 2012, down from 72 000 tonnes in 2011.

Australian beef exports to the Republic of Korea

kt

Frozen

f ABARES forecast.

Chilled

50

100

150

200

2012–13f

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

82

Beef and veal


In 2012–13, Australian beef exports to markets other than Japan, the United States and the Republic of Korea are forecast to rise a further 4 per cent to 313 000 tonnes. The continued absence of US beef in Chinese Taipei is expected to result in increased demand for Australian beef. Lower forecast US beef exports to the ASEAN markets (excluding Indonesia) in 2012–13 is also expected to result in increased demand for Australian beef in these markets. Shipments to the Middle East are forecast to rise given the increased demand for packaged beef, as opposed to freshly slaughtered meat from live imports, and Saudi Arabia’s ban on imports of US beef from 19 April 2012. The Saudi Government has not announced a reason for the ban.

Live exportsAustralian exports of live cattle for slaughter in 2011–12 are estimated to fall by around 27 per cent to 530 000 head. Exports to Indonesia, the largest market, are estimated to fall 17 per cent to 380 000 head because of the pause in trade during 2011 and the reduced allocation of import permits by the Indonesian Government during the first half of 2012. In addition, shipments to Turkey, the second largest market in 2010–11, more than halved as a result of increased import competition in that market from Hungary, France and Uruguay.

Exports of live cattle in 2012–13 are forecast to fall 6 per cent to 500 000 head, reflecting reduced shipments to Indonesia and limited capacity of other export markets to accept surplus cattle. If the Indonesian Government leaves its 2012 live cattle import quota of 283 000 head unchanged, only 98 000 head will be exported to Indonesia during the first half of 2012–13, compared with 191 000 head for the same period in 2011–12.

Australian live cattle exports for slaughter

’000head

Other

f ABARES forecast.

Indonesia

200

400

600

800

1000

2012–13f

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

83

Beef and veal


Outlook for beef and veal


Cattle numbers a million 28 8 30 2 31 4 4 0Cattle numbers a million 28.8 30.2 31.4 4.0– beef million 26 2 27 6 28 8 4 3– beef million 26.2 27.6 28.8 4.3Slaughterings ’000 8 097 7 880 8 065 2 3Slaughterings ’000 8 097 7 880 8 065 2.3P d i kt 2 133 2 120 2 190 3 3Production kt 2 133 2 120 2 190 3.3E ( h d h )Exports (shipped weight)p pp g– to United States kt 160 205 220 7.3 to United States– to Japan kt 351 325 315 – 3.1 to Japan kt 351 325 315 3.1– to Korea, Rep of kt 139 125 122 – 2.4– to Korea, Rep. of kt 139 125 122 – 2.4

total kt 937 955 970 1 6– total kt 937 955 970 1.6value A$m 4 328 4 450 4 470 0 4– value A$m 4 328 4 450 4 470 0.4

Live cattle ’000 728 530 500 5 7Live cattle ’000 728 530 500 – 5.7PricePrice

l d A /k 323 330 320 3 0– saleyard Ac/kg 323 330 320 – 3.0– US import USc/kg 391 433 440 1.6p g– Japan import USc/kg 574 600 585 – 2.5 Japan import USc/kg 574 600 585 2.5

a At 30 June. f ABARES forecast.a At 30 June. f ABARES forecast.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestrya At 30 June. f ABARES forecast.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestrya At 30 June. f ABARES forecast.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry


The Australian weighted average saleyard price for lambs is forecast to increase by 1 per cent in 2012–13 to 485 cents a kilogram as higher export and domestic demand offset the effect of an expected rise in lambs offered for sale. This forecast price rise comes after an estimated 12.1 per cent fall in 2011–12, largely as a result of increased lamb yardings and a significant decline in prices for lamb skins.

The weighted average saleyard price for sheep declined in recent months and is estimated to average around 330 cents a kilogram for 2011–12 as a whole. In 2012–13, demand growth in export markets for live sheep and mutton is expected to more than offset the effect on prices of a forecast increase in sheep availability. The weighted saleyard price for sheep is forecast to increase by around 3 per cent to average 340 cents a kilogram.

Australian lamb slaughter and prices

millionhead

Slaughter

Real saleyard price(right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

Ac/kg

100

200

300

400

500

600

2012–13f

2011–12

2010–11

2009–10

2008–09

2007–08

2006–07

4

8

12

16

20

24

Sheep meatNeil Thompson

85

Sheep meat


Sheep and lamb slaughter to riseResponding to the improved seasonal conditions, producers in eastern states retained older breeding ewes and more ewe lambs in their breeding flocks in 2011–12. This led to an estimated 9 per cent rise in ewe numbers. Reflecting this increase, lamb markings are forecast to increase by 8.4 per cent to just over 35 million head in 2012–13, the highest lamb markings since 2004–05.

Increased lamb availability and continued strong demand is forecast to lead to lamb slaughter rising by 4.5 per cent to 19.6 million head in 2012–13.

Sheep slaughter rates are also forecast to rise in 2012–13 as producers turn off older ewes previously held for flock rebuilding. Sheep slaughter is forecast to be around 6.4 million head in 2012–13, an increase of 23.6 per cent from an estimated recent low of 5.2 million head in 2011–12.

Australian mutton slaughter and prices

millionhead

Slaughter

Saleyard price(right axis)

f ABARES forecast.

Ac/kg

100

200

300

400

500

2012–13f

2011–12

2010–11

2009–10

2008–09

2007–08

2006–07

3

6

9

12

15

Australian sheep flock

millionhead

Ewes

WethersLambs

f ABARES forecast.

2012–13f

2009–10

2006–07

2003–04

20

40

60

80

100

120

86

Sheep meat


Despite the forecast higher slaughter rates, the Australian sheep flock is expected to continue to expand, albeit at a slower rate than in recent years. In 2012–13, the flock is forecast to increase by 4.3 per cent to around 81 million head, following an estimated rise of 4.5 per cent to 78 million head in 2011–12.

Australian exports to rise Australian lamb export volumes are forecast to increase by 4.7 per cent to 180 000 tonnes in 2012–13, following an estimated rise of 9.9 per cent in 2011–12. The increase in 2011–12 has been driven by higher export volumes to developing markets, particularly Jordan, Qatar and China.

In 2012–13, demand from developing markets is expected to rise further, supported by income growth. However, exports to the United States, Australia’s largest market, are expected to be the main driver of the forecast increase.

Lamb exports to the United States are forecast to rise by 11.8 per cent to 38 000 tonnes in 2012–13, following an estimated increase of 2.1 per cent in 2011–12. The forecast increase in 2012–13 largely reflects an expected decline in domestic production, resulting from a significant contraction of the US sheep flock in recent years. In addition, an assumed gradual improvement of US economic conditions is expected to support an increase in consumer demand for lamb.

Increased exports to the United States and continued strong demand in developing markets are expected to contribute to the forecast value of Australian lamb exports reaching $1 billion in 2012–13.

Australian mutton exports are expected to increase significantly in 2012–13 as producers increase sheep turn-off. The volume of mutton exports is forecast to be around 106 000 tonnes in 2012–13, a rise of 20.5 per cent from an estimated 88 000 tonnes in 2011–12.

The forecast increase in export volumes is expected to result in a 24 per cent rise in the value of mutton exports in 2012–13 to around $440 million. Continued strong export demand is expected to maintain relatively high export unit returns.

Markets for Australian mutton exports by volume, 2011–12

United Arab Emirates 11.1%

Saudi Arabia 10.6%

Bahrain 9.1%

China 7.4%

Kuwait 6.3%

Chinese Taipei 5.9%

Other 49.6%

87

Sheep meat


Exports from New Zealand declining In the first four months of 2012, the volume of New Zealand sheep meat exports declined year-on-year by 12.1 per cent. The decline was due largely to a 19.4 per cent fall in demand from the European Union, New Zealand’s largest export market.

The decline in exports to the European Union has led to diversion of New Zealand’s sheep meat exports to other markets, including China—a major destination for Australian sheep meat exports. In the first three months of 2012, exports of sheep meat from New Zealand to China increased year-on-year by 40 per cent to 26 000 tonnes (carcass weight). Despite increased competition from New Zealand, Australian exports to that country rose by 37 per cent to 12 000 tonnes (carcass weight) over the same period.

While diversion of New Zealand exports to markets other than the European Union is expected to continue, strong demand growth in China and other developing markets is expected to be more than enough to absorb the increase in shipments from both New Zealand and Australia.

Live sheep exports to begin recoveryLive sheep exports are forecast to increase by 15.7 per cent in 2012–13 to around 2.8 million head, following an estimated 2.4 million head shipped in 2011–12. This compares with an average of 3.6 million head in the five years to 2010–11.

In 2012–13, as the pace of flock rebuilding slows, the forecast increase in sheep supply is expected to result in higher exports to the Middle East. However, flock rebuilding in Western Australia, following several years of decline because of poor seasonal conditions, is expected to constrain the numbers of sheep available for export from that state. As around 75 per cent of Australia’s live exports are traditionally from Western Australia, reduced availability in that state of sheep suitable for live export will require exporters to source sheep from South Australia and Victoria.

Volume of New Zealand sheep meat exports to European Union, monthly

kt

2010

20112012

DecOctAugJunAprFeb

5

10

15

20

25

88

Sheep meat


Competition in Australia’s live sheep export marketsBeth Deards and Neil Thompson

Markets in the Middle East and Turkey account for more than 90 per cent of Australian live sheep exports. For the 2.9 million head exported in 2010–11, Kuwait was the largest market, accounting for around 40 per cent. Other significant destinations were Bahrain (15 per cent), Turkey (14 per cent), Qatar (11 per cent), Jordan (7 per cent) and Saudi Arabia (5 per cent).

However, competition in many of Australia’s key markets has increased in recent years, because of increasing shipments from African and Eastern European exporters.

Australian exports strong in Kuwait and Bahrain

Australia is the largest supplier of live sheep to Kuwait and Bahrain. Despite competition from Iran and Saudi Arabia, Australia accounted for around 56 per cent of Kuwaiti imports in 2008 (the latest data available). For Bahrain, Australian sheep accounted for 92 per cent of total live sheep imports in 2011.

Increased competition in Saudi Arabia

In 2006 Saudi Arabia was Australia’s primary live sheep market, receiving around 1.2 million head (or 29 per cent of total Australian exports). Since that time, increased competition in the market, particularly from Africa, has led to a significant decline in Australian exports, with only 263 000 head shipped in 2010. In contrast, Africa’s share of Saudi Arabian live sheep imports reached 55 per cent in 2010, up from 27 per cent in 2006.

Sudan accounted for the largest share of the Saudi Arabian market in 2010, at around 40 per cent. Sudan’s exports to Saudi Arabia of almost 2.3 million head in 2010 follows a recovery from a low of around 690 000 in 2008, as a result of an outbreak of Rift Valley Fever.

Saudi Arabia banned imports from Somalia between 2000 and 2009 because of the outbreak of Rift Valley Fever. During this time Djibouti emerged as a supplier to Saudi Arabia, peaking at around 1 million head in 2007, following establishment of quarantine and certification facilities. However, upon lifting of the import ban, Somalia regained market share and exports from Djibouti declined to around 100 000 head in 2010.

Intra-regional trade is also an important source of sheep for Saudi Arabia. As Syria’s largest export market, Saudi Arabia imported almost 2 million head in 2010, 34 per cent of Saudi Arabia’s total live sheep imports.

continued...

89

Sheep meat


Competition in Australia’s live sheep export markets continued

Saudi Arabian live sheep imports, 2006 and 2010

Australia 23%

2006

Sudan 27%

Syria 34%

Other Middle East 7%

Other 9%

Australia 8%

2010

Sudan 40%

Syria 34%

Other Middle East 3%

Djibouti 2%

Somalia 13%

African live sheep exports to Saudi Arabia

’000head

SomaliaDjibouti

Sudan

201020092008200720062005

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

continued...

90

Sheep meat


Competition in Australia’s live sheep export markets continued

Eastern European competition in Turkey and Jordan

Bulgaria is Australia’s major competitor in Turkey, which emerged as a live sheep market following an import tariff reduction in 2010. In 2011, Australian live sheep exports to Turkey increased by 64 per cent to around 352 000 head while Bulgarian exports rose by 281 per cent to around 761 000 head. Over the same period, Bulgarian imports of live sheep from Romania more than doubled.

In addition to Bulgaria, Romanian live sheep exports to Jordan also increased significantly in recent years. Romanian exports to Jordan reached 285 000 head in 2011, exceeding Australian exports of 217 000 for the first time since 2003.

However, Jordan itself is an exporter of live sheep to other markets in the Middle East, supplying Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait. Between 2001 and 2010, Jordanian live sheep exports to other markets in the region averaged 35 per cent of total Jordanian imports, suggesting that imports from Australia and Romania are not solely for domestic consumption.

Romanian live sheep exports

’000head

Other

Other European Union

Other Middle EastBulgaria

Jordan

500

1000

1500

2000

2011201020092008200720062005

91

Sheep meat


Outlook for sheep meat


SlaughteringsSlaughterings Sheep ’000 5 341 5 180 6 400 23 6Sheep ’000 5 341 5 180 6 400 23.6Lamb ’000 17 880 18 700 19 550 4 5Lamb ’000 17 880 18 700 19 550 4.5ProductionProduction aMutton kt 123 120 148 23 3Mutton kt 123 120 148 23.3Lamb kt 391 413 430 4 1Lamb kt 391 413 430 4.1E ( hi d i h )Exports (shipped weight)p pp gMutton kt 86 88 106 20.5Mutton 86 88 106 20.5Lamb kt 157 172 180 4.7Lamb kt 157 172 180 4.7– to United States kt 33 34 38 11.8 to United States kt 33 34 38 11.8Total sheep meat kt 243 260 286 10 0Total sheep meat kt 243 260 286 10.0

value $m 1 429 1 404 1 558 11 0– value $m 1 429 1 404 1 558 11.0Live sheep ’000 2 909 2 420 2 800 15 7Live sheep ’000 2 909 2 420 2 800 15.7

value $m 346 332 390 17 5– value $m 346 332 390 17.5S l d iSaleyard pricesMutton Ac/kg 414 330 340 3.0gLamb Ac/kg 546 480 485 1.0g

a Carcass weight. f ABARES forecast.a Carcass weight. f ABARES forecast.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestrya Carcass weight. f ABARES forecast.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestrya Carcass weight. f ABARES forecast.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry


The Australian Eastern Market Indicator (EMI) price for wool is forecast to fall 11 per cent to average 1070 cents a kilogram clean in 2012–13. However, such a price outcome would still be around 24 per cent above the average annual EMI price in the second half of the 2000s. The forecast decline in the EMI price in 2012–13 reflects higher supplies of wool and the effect on retail demand for wool textiles and apparel of an assumed economic slowdown in Europe and weak growth in consumer demand in the United States.

Prices to average lower in 2012–13While 2011–12 opened at an EMI price of 1409 cents a kilogram clean, the EMI price fell over the season to just below 1100 cents a kilogram clean by the end of May 2012. Despite this fall, the EMI price in 2011–12 is estimated to average 7 per cent higher than the previous year, at 1208 cents a kilogram clean.

There was a proportionately sharper decline in the prices of fine and superfine wools (less than 19.5 micron) relative to medium wool (19.6 to 22.9 micron). For example, the difference in prices between 18-micron and 21-micron wool at the beginning of 2011–12 was 41 per cent and by the end of May 2012 had declined to 7 per cent, as a result of the

Australian Eastern Market Indicator wool price, weekly, ended 8 June 2012

No. ofbales

Bales o�ered

EMI Australian cents(right axis)

15000

30000

45000

60000

75000

Ac/kgclean

300

600

900

1200

1500

8 June2012

28 Oct2011

29 Apr2011

29 Oct2010

30 Apr2010

30 Oct2009

24 Apr2009

31 Oct2008

WoolKelly Chow

93

Wool


sharper fall in the price of fine wool. The different movement in the price of the two wool types over this period largely reflected weaker Chinese processing demand for fine wool and an increase in fine wool types offered at Australian auction sales.

The Australian Wool Testing Authority key test data indicate that the volume of wool tested less than 17.5 microns in the first 10 months of 2011–12 increased by 11 per cent year-on-year. In contrast, the quantity of medium merino wool (19.6 to 21.5 microns) declined by 13 per cent over this period.

The demand for fine and superfine wools is expected to remain weak in 2012–13 and, with the prospect of increased production of these wool types in Australia, downward pressure on the prices of these wool types is expected in 2012–13.

Weaker consumer demand for wool apparel in 2012–13An assumed slowdown in economic activity in many European countries and slow growth in consumer demand in the United States are expected to dampen demand for wool in 2012–13. However, while demand for wool apparel in China softened in the first half of 2012, a gradual recovery is expected during 2012–13.

In Europe, weak economic activity and rising unemployment in many countries are expected to dampen retail demand for wool apparel and textiles in 2012–13. Imports of wool products in the European Union fell sharply in the first eight months of 2011–12. In the nine months to March 2012, Australian exports of raw wool to Italy and the Czech Republic fell by 16 per cent and 18 per cent, respectively, year-on-year.

In the United States, consumer confidence in 2012–13 is expected to recover gradually, supported by an expected improvement in labour market conditions. However, consumer spending on discretionary items such as clothing is expected to remain relatively subdued. In the first nine months of 2011–12, total imports of wool apparel by the United States fell by 7 per cent, year-on-year. Over the same period, US imports of wool apparel from China declined by 13 per cent.

Australian wool micron profile, 10 months to April

’000 bales

2010–112011–12

Micron range

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

34.6+

32.6–34.5

30.6–32.5

28.6–30.5

27.6–28.5

26.6–27.5

25.6–26.5

24.6–25.5

23.6–24.5

22.6–23.5

21.6–22.5

20.6–21.5

19.6–20.5

18.6–19.5

17.6–18.5

0.0–17.5

94

Wool


The Chinese wool textile industry dominates world trade in wool, accounting for just under half of the global imports of raw wool. In 2011–12, Chinese wool textile activity slowed in response to weakening global demand, particularly in Europe and the United States. Reflecting weaker export demand for high valued wool apparel, Chinese imports of fine and superfine wool from Australia declined by 27 per cent, year-on-year, to 65 700 tonnes greasy equivalent in the nine months ending March 2012. Overall Australian raw wool exports to China fell by 9 per cent to 226 444 tonnes greasy equivalent over the same period, with a marginal decline in medium wools and a slight increase in coarser wools.

Competitiveness of wool against other fibresAn additional factor expected to lead to weaker demand for wool in 2012–13 is the decline in the price competitiveness of wool relative to cotton. The ratio of wool-to-cotton prices is expected to remain high, placing downward pressure on wool demand and hence prices as processors substitute wool with cotton in textile manufacturing, where possible. Reflecting a sharper decline in the price of cotton, the 21-micron wool-to-Cotlook ‘A’ price ratio increased by 25 per cent to around 6:1 between July 2011 and April 2012.

In the 11 months to May 2012, the price competitiveness of wool improved against polyester when the ratio of 21-micron wool-to-polyester prices fell by around 20 per cent. Over this period, the price of 21-micron wool fell by 15 per cent, compared with a 6 per cent rise in the price of polyester. In 2012–13, the recent improvement in the price competitiveness of wool is expected to be largely maintained against polyester with the price of wool forecast to average lower.

Australian wool production to increaseAustralian shorn wool production is forecast to increase by 4 per cent to 385 000 tonnes in 2012–13. Reflecting continuing flock rebuilding, the Australian sheep flock is forecast to increase by 4 per cent to 81 million head in 2012–13 with sheep shorn numbers to increase by 3.5 per cent to 89.4 million head. Assuming favourable seasonal conditions in primary wool growing areas, the average wool cut per head is expected to remain similar to 2011–12 at 4.3 kilograms.

Australian wool exports to China, 9 months to March

kt

2010–112011–12

19-micronand �ner

20–27micron

28-micronand stronger

20

40

60

80

100

95

Wool


Increased wool production is expected to occur mainly in Victoria, New South Wales and Western Australia, more than offsetting a decline in Queensland. The Bureau of Meteorology outlook, issued on 23 May 2012, for drier seasonal conditions from June to August 2012 in South Australia and Western Australia could be a downside risk for wool production in those states in the short term.

World wool production to remain lowIn 2012–13, wool production in South Africa, Uruguay and New Zealand is expected to increase, but production in Argentina is forecast to decline. Despite a forecast increase in global wool production in 2012–13, wool supplies are expected to remain at historical lows.

In South Africa, wool production is forecast to increase in 2012–13, reflecting higher sheep numbers and assuming favourable seasonal conditions. With South Africa producing predominantly fine and medium wool types, the prospect of increased wool exports from South Africa in 2012–13 is expected to lead to higher competition for Australian wool exporters, particularly in the Chinese market.

In Uruguay, wool production is expected to increase by 3 per cent to around 32 000 tonnes in 2012–13 in response to an increase in the number of sheep shorn. The Uruguayan sheep flock has increased over the past two years in response to favourable wool and sheep meat prices and seasonal conditions. New Zealand wool production is also expected to increase, reflecting the effects of a slight increase in sheep numbers and assumed favourable seasonal conditions.

Wool production in Argentina is expected to decrease in 2012–13, partly reflecting the continued shift in resources to the production of food crops. In 2011–12 Argentina’s wool production was adversely affected by the eruption of the Puyehue volcano in Chile.

Higher wool exportsDespite an estimated increase in wool production, Australian wool exports are estimated to decline by 8 per cent to 410 000 tonnes greasy equivalent in 2011–12 reflecting weaker demand in Australia’s main export markets. However, an assumed improvement in economic activity in some export markets, particularly China, is expected to increase Australian wool exports by 2 per cent to 420 000 tonnes greasy in 2012–13.

Despite an expected increase in the volume of wool exports, forecast lower prices are expected to result in the value of Australian wool exports falling by around 10 per cent to $2.70 billion in 2012–13.

While there was rebuilding of wool stocks during 2011–12, stocks held on-farm and in broker stores remained low as at June 2012. An increase in stocks is expected to occur over 2012–13 in response to higher wool production.

96

Wool


Outlook for wool


Sheep n mbers million 74 78 81 3 8Sheep numbers a million 74 78 81 3.8Sh h illi 85 86 89 3 5Sheep shorn million 85 86 89 3.5Wool production (greasy)p (g y)– shorn kt 368 369 385 4.3 shorn kt 368 369 385 4.3– other b kt 61 61 67 9.8 other b kt 61 61 67 9.8– total kt 429 430 452 5.1 total kt 429 430 452 5.1Wool exportsWool exports– volume (gr equiv ) kt 444 410 420 2 4– volume (gr. equiv.) kt 444 410 420 2.4

to China kt 325 296 305 3 0– to China kt 325 296 305 3.0l $ 3 048 3 005 2 697 10 2– value c $m 3 048 3 005 2 697 – 10.2

M k i di ( l )Market indicator (clean) – eastern Ac/kg 1 132 1 208 1 070 – 11.4g– western Ac/kg 1 092 1 172 1 049 – 10.5gAuction price (greasy) Ac/kg 734 788 696 – 11.7Auction price (greasy) Ac/kg 734 788 696 11.7

a At 30 June. b Includes wool on sheepskins, fellmongered and slipe wool. c Balance of payments basis. f ABARESa At 30 June. b Includes wool on sheepskins, fellmongered and slipe wool. c Balance of payments basis. f ABARES forecast. a At 30 June. b Includes wool on sheepskins, fellmongered and slipe wool. c Balance of payments basis. f ABARES forecast. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Australian Wool Exchange

a At 30 June. b Includes wool on sheepskins, fellmongered and slipe wool. c Balance of payments basis. f ABARES forecast. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Australian Wool Exchange


World prices of dairy products are forecast to fall in 2012–13, with the world price of butter forecast to fall by 16 per cent and average US$3250 a tonne. For both skim milk powder and whole milk powder, world prices are forecast to decline by 11 per cent and to average US$2840 a tonne and US$3050 a tonne, respectively. The world price of cheese is forecast to fall by around 8 per cent to an average of US$3900 a tonne. The combined effects of high milk production in major producing and exporting countries and an assumed economic slowdown in the European Union are expected to place downward pressure on world prices.

The forecast falls in world dairy prices in 2012–13 follows weakening prices during 2011–12. Between July 2011 and May 2012, world prices of butter and milk powders fell by 37 per cent and 25 per cent, respectively.

World dairy prices

2011–12US$/t

Skim milk powder

Cheese

f ABARES forecast.

Whole milk powder

Butter

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2012–13f

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

2000–01

Dairy David Barrett

98

Dairy


Higher global supplies to place downward pressure on pricesMilk production in most major producing and exporting countries is forecast to increase in 2012–13, albeit at a slower rate than the previous year, leading to an increase in world supplies of dairy products.

European UnionAfter rising by 2.3 per cent in 2011–12, milk production in the European Union is expected to grow more moderately in 2012–13 in response to lower farm-gate prices. EU milk production is expected to remain within the quota which increased by a further 1 per cent for the 2012–13 marketing year (April to March).

EU wholesale prices of butter and skim milk powder fell by 23 per cent and 13 per cent, respectively, during the four months to April 2012, largely in response to increased EU production and weaker export returns. In April 2012 the average wholesale price of butter in Köln and Hanover, Germany was 9 per cent above the EU intervention price after being 45 per cent higher at the end of 2011. Similarly, the average wholesale price of skim milk powder (feed quality) in Germany was 8 per cent above the EU intervention price after being 24 per cent higher at the end of 2011. As at early May 2012, EU intervention stores held virtually zero stocks of butter and just over 6000 tonnes of skim milk powder.

United StatesMilk production in the United States is forecast to rise by 2.9 per cent in 2012 to 91.6 million tonnes reflecting higher milk yields. In 2013, US milk production is forecast to rise by only 0.4 per cent with expected higher milk yields marginally offsetting the effect on milk production of a projected fall in the dairy herd.

In the first four months of 2012, US commercial stocks of butter and skim milk powder increased and, in April 2012, were 79 per cent and 50 per cent higher, respectively, than in April 2011. These rising stocks were mainly in response to

EU milk production and farm-gate price

Euro/100kg

EU-27 Farm-gatemilk price (right axis)

Change in milkproduction, year-on-year

–600

–400

–200

kt

200

400

600

6

12

18

24

30

36

Mar2012

Sep2011

Mar2011

Sep2010

Mar2010

Sep2009

Mar2009

99

Dairy


higher US production and weaker export demand. Commercial stocks of dairy products in the United States are expected to remain relatively high in the first half of 2012–13 as production of dairy products is forecast to increase and demand, both domestic and export, to remain subdued.

New ZealandNew Zealand milk production is estimated to increase by 10 per cent in 2011–12 to 19.6 million tonnes, reflecting a rise in the number of dairy cows and favourable seasonal conditions. The number of dairy cows rose by 3 per cent in 2010–11 and a further rise of 3 per cent is forecast in 2011–12. A significant proportion of the increase in the dairy herd is expected to occur in the South Island where around 31 per cent of the herd is located.

Assuming average seasonal conditions, milk production in New Zealand is forecast to rise between 1 and 2 per cent in 2012–13 (June to May marketing year) with a forecast 9 per cent fall in farm-gate milk prices to constrain production growth.

Demand in developing countries to underpin tradeWorld trade in dairy products is expected to continue to increase in 2012–13, underpinned by rising demand in Asia, the Middle East and North Africa. China, the Russian Federation and Japan are expected to remain significant importers of dairy products in 2012–13.

Import demand for milk powders in China, South-East Asia, North Africa and Central America is expected to remain firm in 2012–13.

While Chinese imports of whole milk powder declined in the first quarter of 2012, China is expected to remain the dominant importer of whole milk powder and its imports are forecast to rise by 6 per cent for 2012 as a whole to around 370 000 tonnes. If achieved, this will be close to double China’s imports of whole milk powder in 2009, driven particularly by growing demand for infant formula. China’s imports of skim milk powder are forecast to rise by 18 per cent to 140 000 tonnes in 2012.

US commercial dairy stocks, year-on-year change

kt

Skim milk powder

Butter

–40

–30

–20

–10

10

20

30

40

50

Apr2012

Feb2012

Dec2011

Oct2011

Aug2011

Jun2011

Apr2011

Feb2011

100

Dairy


Imports of milk powders in Indonesia and the Philippines are also forecast to rise in 2012–13, by 10 per cent to 240 000 tonnes and 3 per cent to 118 000 tonnes, respectively. With increased supplies of milk powders available for export in New Zealand, the United States, Argentina and the European Union, Australian exporters are expected to face increased competition in these markets in 2012–13.

Mexico is the third largest importer of skim milk powder; imports increased by 18 per cent in the four years to 2011. Mexican imports of skim milk powder are forecast to reach around 180 000 tonnes in 2012, sourced mainly from the United States.

New Zealand is expected to increase its exports of whole milk powder in 2012 by 4 per cent to 1.1 million tonnes. Argentina’s exports of whole milk powder are forecast to reach 250 000 tonnes in 2012, nearly double the volume exported in 2010. The major markets for Argentina’s whole milk powder are expected to be Venezuela, Colombia and Algeria.

The global cheese market is dominated by three major importers, the Russian Federation, Japan and the United States. These markets account for around 60 per cent of world cheese trade. A number of smaller emerging markets for cheese imports include the Republic of Korea, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, China and Indonesia.

The Russian Federation is expected to increase its cheese imports by 5 per cent in 2012 to around 330 000 tonnes, driven by rising consumer incomes. In response to rising consumer demand, milk production in the Russian Federation is also forecast to rise by around 4 per cent in 2012, largely as a result of an increase in the national dairy herd and improved supplies of feed grains and fodder.

Cheese imports by Japan are forecast to rise by 2 per cent in 2012 to 210 000 tonnes as a result of increased use of cheese in the food service sector. Domestic cheese production in Japan—particularly in the Hokkaido region—is forecast to rise by 4 per cent to 50 000 tonnes in 2012.

New Zealand dairy exports

kt

Skim milk powder

Whole milk powderCheeseButter

f ABARES forecast.

2012f201020082006200420022000

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

101

Dairy


Australian milk production to riseThe Australian farm-gate price for milk is forecast to fall by 10 per cent in 2012–13 to average around 37 cents a litre. Opening prices for manufacturing milk, which are set by dairy processors in southern Australia, are expected to average around 32 cents a litre. This is around 11 per cent lower than the opening prices of 2011–12.

Assuming favourable seasonal conditions in the main dairying regions, national milk production is forecast to increase by 1.5 per cent in 2012–13 to 9.6 billion litres, following an estimated 4 per cent rise in 2011–12. Such an outcome would be the highest production since 2005–06. The forecast increase in production is expected to follow from the significant improvement in availability of irrigation water in northern Victoria and southern New South Wales. As at June 2012, water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin were approximately 90 per cent of capacity, significantly higher than the 25 per cent recorded in 2010.

The national dairy herd is forecast to rise by around 1 per cent in 2011–12 and a further 2 per cent in 2012–13 to around 1.7 million cows. The forecast increase in 2012–13 is expected to result from increased retention of heifers and reduced culling of older cows.

Assuming favourable seasonal conditions, forecast lower feed grain prices in 2012–13 are expected to maintain average milk yields close to the record of the previous year.

Milk production in Victoria, which accounts for two-thirds of national production, is estimated to increase by 5 per cent in 2011–12. Production in northern Victoria, which accounts for around 30 per cent of Victorian production, is estimated to rise by around 15 per cent, compared with an estimated increase of 4 per cent in Western Victoria (accounting for 35 per cent of Victorian production). In eastern Victoria, (35 per cent of Victorian production) a slight decline in milk production is expected. Milk production in southern New South Wales is estimated to rise by around 9 per cent in 2011–12.

Victorian milk production, year-on-year change

%

2009–10

2010–112011–12f

Eastern Northern Western–15

–10

–5

5

10

15

f ABARES forecast.

102

Dairy


Market milk consumption in AustraliaSince the major supermarkets reduced the retail price of home brand fresh milk to $1 a litre in late January 2011, fresh milk consumption in Australia has increased. From February 2011 to March 2012, fresh milk sales were around 3.8 per cent higher than for the corresponding period a year earlier. Assuming this pricing strategy remains in place, fresh milk sales are forecast to rise a further 2 per cent in 2012–13.

While total fresh milk sales increased, the trend away from branded milks to home brand milks has been noticeable. During this period, the share of home brand milks sold through supermarkets increased by 5 percentage points to 54 per cent while branded milk sales declined by 5 percentage points to 46 per cent. At the same time, the supermarkets increased their share of total fresh milk sales by 1 percentage point to 53 per cent.

Australian exportsThe total value of Australian dairy exports is forecast to decline by 4 per cent in 2012–13 to $2.2 billion, reflecting lower average world dairy product prices. However, the volume of cheese exports is forecast to increase by 4 per cent to 274 000 tonnes and account for around 35 per cent of the value of Australian dairy exports. Japan is expected to remain Australia’s largest market, accounting for around half of Australia’s cheese exports.

Outlook for dairy


AustraliaAustraliaCow numbers a ’000 1 604 1 623 1 650 1 7Cow numbers a ’000 1 604 1 623 1 650 1.7Milk i ld 6 829 8 8 0 2Milk yields L/cow 5 675 5 829 5 818 – 0.2y

ProductionProductionTotal milk ML 9 102 9 460 9 600 1 5Total milk ML 9 102 9 460 9 600 1.5– market sales ML 2 316 2 385 2 430 1 9– market sales ML 2 316 2 385 2 430 1.9

manufacturing ML 6 787 7 075 7 170 1 3– manufacturing ML 6 787 7 075 7 170 1.3B tt b kt 122 120 120 0 0Butter b kt 122 120 120 0.0Cheese kt 339 352 364 3 4Cheese kt 339 352 364 3.4Wh l ilk d k 151 144 150 4 2Whole milk powder kt 151 144 150 4.2Skim milk powder kt 222 226 220 – 2.7pFarmgate milk price Ac/L 43.2 41.0 37.0 – 9.8Farmgate milk price Ac/L 43.2 41.0 37.0 9.8Value of exports A$m 2 344 2 291 2 195 – 4 2Value of exports A$m 2 344 2 291 2 195 – 4.2

ldWorld pricespButter US$/t 4 683 3 885 3 250 – 16.3Butter $/ 4 683 3 885 3 250 16.3Cheese US$/t 4 221 4 237 3 900 – 8.0Cheese US$/t 4 221 4 237 3 900 8.0Skim milk powder US$/t 3 392 3 200 2 840 – 11.3Skim milk powder US$/t 3 392 3 200 2 840 11.3Whole milk powder US$/t 3 771 3 441 3 050 – 11.4Whole milk powder US$/t 3 771 3 441 3 050 11.4

a At 30 June. b Includes the butter equivalent of butteroil, butter concentrate, ghee and dry butterfat. f ABARES a At 30 June. b Includes the butter equivalent of butteroil, butter concentrate, ghee and dry butterfat. f ABARES forecast.a At 30 June. b Includes the butter equivalent of butteroil, butter concentrate, ghee and dry butterfat. f ABARES forecast.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Dairy Australia

a At 30 June. b Includes the butter equivalent of butteroil, butter concentrate, ghee and dry butterfat. f ABARES forecast.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Dairy Australia

Fisheries


Australia’s fisheries resources and productionThe value of Australian fisheries production has fallen considerably over the last decade. This is largely attributable to falls in the value of production of some higher unit export value species groups, including rock lobster, prawns, abalone and tuna, where unit export values declined as a result of the appreciation of the Australian dollar. Since 2005–06, the pace of decline has moderated and this primarily reflects growth in farmed salmonid production, which is partly offsetting continued declines in the value of wild-catch fisheries production.

In 2009–10, Australia’s gross value of fisheries production was $2.19 billion, 1 per cent lower than in 2008–09. This was the lowest gross value of production in over a decade, having fallen by 31 per cent (or $988.9 million in 2010–11 dollars) since 2000–01. Most of the decline occurred between 2000–01 and 2004–05, when gross value of production fell on average by 7 per cent a year. Between 2004–05 and 2009–10, the value fell on average by 2 per cent a year.

In terms of gross value of production, the product composition of Australian fisheries did not vary substantially over the past few years. Rock lobster continued to be Australia’s most valuable species group in 2009–10 at $381.3 million, representing 17 per cent of the gross value of fisheries production. This was followed by salmonids ($369.4 million, 17 per cent), prawns ($325 million, 15 per cent), abalone ($180.4 million, 8 per cent) and tuna ($122.5 million, 6 per cent).

This value is estimated to have increased marginally in 2010–11, to around $2.21 billion. Negative effects of the significant appreciation of the Australian dollar on unit export values in 2010–11 were partially offset by higher production volumes of fishery commodities. The Australian dollar has further appreciated in 2011–12, which continues to negatively affect the value of exports of the higher valued production species that are generally export-oriented. The gross value of total fisheries production in 2011–12 is forecast to remain steady at $2.24 billion and rise slightly in 2012–13.

In 2010–11, Australian fisheries production is estimated to have been around $2.21 billion, representing a marginal increase of 0.8 per cent from 2009–10. This occurred despite lower production volumes of several key species, including rock lobster, prawns and tuna.

FisheriesMaggie Skirtun

105

Fisheries


In 2011–12, the value of fisheries production is forecast to remain relatively steady at $2.24 billion. Appreciation of the Australian dollar against the US dollar was a major factor driving lower export prices and increased import competition for Australian fisheries products, thereby putting downward pressure on the value of fisheries products in the domestic and export markets.

The wild-catch sectorThe wild-catch sector share of Australia’s fisheries gross value of production decreased in recent years, reflecting a decline in the value of catches from both state and Commonwealth fisheries. In 2000–01, the wild-catch sector accounted for around 74 per cent of Australia’s gross value of production from fisheries products. Of this, state fisheries (generally classified as fisheries adjacent to each state and/or territory within three nautical miles of the coastline) accounted for 74 per cent. The remaining 26 per cent was from Commonwealth fisheries (defined as up to 200 nautical miles from the coastline—the Australian Fishing Zone). In 2009–10, the wild-catch share of Australia’s fisheries gross value of production declined to 62 per cent; state fisheries share of this remained stable at 76 per cent.

The aquaculture sectorOver the past decade, the gross value of production of Australia’s aquaculture sector declined by 4 per cent to $870 million in 2009–10. Most of the decline occurred in the early part of the decade, with the sector growing by 18 per cent since 2004–05. The slower pace of decline compared with the wild-catch sector resulted in the aquaculture share of total fisheries value increasing from 26 per cent in 2000–01 to 38 per cent in 2009–10.

In 2009–10, the largest contributors to Australian aquaculture production were salmonids ($369 million), pearl oysters ($104 million), farmed southern bluefin tuna ($102 million) and edible oysters ($99.6 million). Together these four commodity groups accounted for 78 per cent of the value of aquaculture production. The value of aquaculture prawn production also increased considerably in recent years, rising by 36 per cent in 2009–10 to $77.5 million.

Real value of Australian fisheries production, by key species group

2011–12$b

Other

SalmonidsPrawnsTuna

Note: Rock lobster production value includes bugs (Ibacus and Scyllarides species). f ABARES forecast.s ABARES estimate.

AbaloneRock lobster

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2012–13f

2010–11s

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

106

Fisheries


Australia’s trade in fisheries productsBefore 2007–08 Australia was a net importer of fisheries products in volume terms but a net exporter in value terms. This disparity reflected the composition of Australian fisheries exports compared with imports. Australian fisheries exports are dominated by high value products, such as rock lobster, tuna and abalone while imports largely consist of lower value products, including frozen fish fillets, canned fish and frozen prawns. Australia became a net importer of fisheries products in value terms in 2007–08, and in 2010–11 the gap by which the value of imports exceeded exports increased by 5 per cent to reach $282 million.

Hong Kong remained Australia’s largest export destination for fisheries products in 2010–11, accounting for 44 per cent ($539 million) of Australia’s total fisheries product exports. This was reduced from 52 per cent ($629 million) in 2009–10, which reflects some redirection of trade to mainland China, where export value increased by $102 million in 2010–11. Other major export destinations for Australia’s fisheries products in 2010–11 include Japan (22 per cent, $269 million), China (12 per cent, $146 million), the United States (4 per cent, $43.3 million) and Singapore (4 per cent, $43 million). Together, these five economies accounted for 86 per cent of the total value of Australian fisheries product exports in 2010–11.

Key fisheries product exports in 2010–11

Top five exports, by value in 2010–11 Top five export destinations in 2010–11

Rock lobster $369 million Hong Kong, China $539 million

Pearls $241 million Japan $269 million

Abalone $212 million China $146 million

Tuna $130 million United States $43 million

Prawns $77 million Singapore $43 million

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Real value of Australian fisheries production, by sector a

2011–12$b

State wild-catchCommonwealth wild-catch Aquaculture

a To avoid double counting, aquaculture total has been adjusted to exclude southern bluen tuna caught in theCommonwealth Southern Bluen Tuna Fishery, which is input to farms in South Australia.

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2009–10

2007–08

2005–06

2003–04

2001–02

107

Fisheries


In real terms, the value of Australian fisheries exports fell by 57 per cent ($1.7 billion) since 2000–01 to $1.2 billion in 2010–11. Most of this decline occurred between 2000–01 and 2004–05. This is primarily due to a 36 per cent (23 164 tonnes) decrease in the volume of edible exports and export prices for a number of the higher valued export products, in particularly, prawns, tuna and abalone. The decline in unit export prices is partly the result of appreciation of the Australian dollar against the Japanese yen and the US dollar during this period.

In 2010–11, the total value of Australian fisheries imports increased by 1 per cent ($16.3 million) to $1.5 billion. Approximately 83 per cent of this import value consisted of edible fishery products, which increased in value terms by 2 per cent ($27 million) to $1.3 billion. This was mainly driven by lower import unit prices as a result of sharp appreciation of the Australian dollar.

Despite the relatively high Australian dollar, export earnings remained strong in 2010–11 at $1.25 billion. Exports earnings in 2011–12 are estimated to remain steady at $1.25 billion and increase slightly in 2012–13 to $1.27 billion.

Australian exports of edible fisheries products (excluding live), by top six destinations

2010–11$m

Japan

Hong KongChinese Taipei

United StatesSingapore

China

200

400

600

800

1000

2010–11

2008–09

2006–07

2004–05

2002–03

2000–01

108

Fisheries


Outlook for fisheries


Gross value of fisheries productionGross value of fisheries productionFish a $m 968 997 986 1 1Fish a $m 968 997 986 – 1.1C t $ 756 758 779 2 8Crustaceans $m 756 758 779 2.8M ll $Molluscs $m 350 349 384 10.0Pearls $m 120 114 115 0.9ea s $ 0 5 0.9

Total b $m 2 210 2 236 2 281 2 0Total b $m 2 210 2 236 2 281 2.0

Export value pFish $m 287 302 277 – 8.3Fish $m 287 302 277 8.3Crustaceans c $m 433 445 465 4.5Crustaceans c $m 433 445 465 4.5Molluscs d $m 212 201 211 5.0Molluscs d $m 212 201 211 5.0Other fisheries products $m 60 56 66 17 9Other fisheries products $m 60 56 66 17.9

T l f d $Total seafood $m 1 007 1 022 1 038 1.6

Pearls $m 241 229 231 0.9Pearls $m 241 229 231 0.9

T t l fi h i d t $ 1 249 1 251 1 270 1 5Total fisheries products $m 1 249 1 251 1 270 1.5 a Excludes tuna transhipped at sea or captured under joint venture or bilateral agreements. b Also includes fish a Excludes tuna transhipped at sea or captured under joint venture or bilateral agreements. b Also includes fish and aquaculture values not elsewhere included. c Includes prawns (headless and whole) and rock lobster (tails a Excludes tuna transhipped at sea or captured under joint venture or bilateral agreements. b Also includes fish and aquaculture values not elsewhere included. c Includes prawns (headless and whole) and rock lobster (tails and whole). Other prawn products included in other fisheries products. d Includes abalone and scallops. f ABARES

a Excludes tuna transhipped at sea or captured under joint venture or bilateral agreements. b Also includes fish and aquaculture values not elsewhere included. c Includes prawns (headless and whole) and rock lobster (tails and whole). Other prawn products included in other fisheries products. d Includes abalone and scallops. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.

and aquaculture values not elsewhere included. c Includes prawns (headless and whole) and rock lobster (tails and whole). Other prawn products included in other fisheries products. d Includes abalone and scallops. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

) p p p pforecast. s ABARES estimate. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

109Department of Agriculture, Fisheries & Forestry Document Title Goes Here

Running Main Header Milo Pro Medium 8ptRunning Sub Header Milo Pro Light 8pt

Statistical tables

Figures

1 Contribution to GDP 111

2 Markets for Australian merchandise exports 111

3 Sources of Australian merchandise imports 112

4 Principal markets for Australian agricultural, forestry and fisheries exports (nominal) 113

5 Contribution to exports by sector, balance of payments basis 119

Tables

1 Indexes of prices received by farmers 116

2 Indexes of prices paid by farmers, and terms of trade 117

3 Farm costs and returns 118

4 Volume of production indexes 120

5 Industry gross value added 120

6 Employment 121

7 All banks lending to business 121

8 Rural indebtedness to financial institutions 122

9 Annual world indicator prices of selected commodities 122

10 Gross unit values of farm products 123

11 World production, consumption, stocks and trade for selected commodities 124

12 Agricultural, fisheries and forestry commodity production 126

13 Gross value of farm and fisheries production 128

14 Crop and forestry areas and livestock numbers 130

15 Average farm yields 131

16 Volume of agricultural, fisheries and forestry exports 132

17 Value of agricultural, fisheries and forestry exports (fob) 134

18 Volume of forest products exports 136

19 Value of forest products exports (fob) 137

20 Volume of forest products imports 138

21 Value of forest products imports 139

22 Volume of fisheries products exports 140

23 Value of fisheries products exports (fob) 141

24 Volume of fisheries products imports 142

25 Value of fisheries products imports 143

26 Agricultural exports to Japan (fob) 144

27 Agricultural exports to the United States (fob) 145

28 Agricultural exports to China (fob) 146

29 Value of Australian forest products trade, by selected countries 147

30 Value of Australian fisheries products trade, by selected countries 147

31 Food exports by level of transformation 148

32 Food imports by level of transformation 149

33 Total food exports, by selected destination 150

34 Total food imports, by selected source country 150

GDP, exports

FIGURE 1 Contribution to GDP Australia, chain volume measures, reference year 2009–10

Services 75%

Manufacturing 8%

Mining 7%

Building and construction 8%

Agriculture, forestry and �shing 2%

Services 74%

Manufacturing 10%

Mining 8%

Building and construction 5%

Agriculture, forestry and �shing 3%

2010–11

$1317.9b

2000–01

$975.5b

FIGURE 2 Markets for Australian merchandise exports in 2010–11 dollars

Japan 17% Japan 30%

China 5% China 22%

New Zealand 19% New Zealand 13%

Malaysia 2% Malaysia 4%

United States 5% United States 4%

Chinese Taipei 2% Chinese Taipei 3%

Indonesia 3% Indonesia 2%

other 47% other 22%

Japan 34% Japan 22%

Hong Kong 25% Hong Kong 46%

China 2% China 12%

United States 9% United States 4%

Singapore 3% Singapore 3%

Chinese Taipei 8% Chinese Taipei 2%

European Union 27 4% European Union 27 2%

other 15% other 9%

2010–112000–01

Total $158.8b $245.7b

$40.0b $32.4bAgriculture

$2.9b $1.2bFisheries

$2.5b $2.5bForestry

other

European Union 27

India

New Zealand

United States

Republic of Korea

Japan

China

other

European Union 27

India

New Zealand

United States

Republic of Korea

Japan

China

26%

7%

6%

3%

4%

9%

19%

26%

36%

12%

2%

6%

10%

8%

20%

6%

15%

7%

8%

8%

15%

20%

13%

14%

17%

10%

10%

11%

13%

16%

16%

7%

other

United States

Middle East

European Union 27

other Asia

ASEAN

Japan

China

other

United States

Middle East

European Union 27

other Asia

ASEAN

Japan

China


Import markets

FIGURE 3 Sources of Australian merchandise imports in 2010–11 dollars

New Zealand 19%

China 4%

Indonesia 9%

United States 12%

Malaysia 4%

Germany 5%

Finland 7%

other 40%

New Zealand 16%

China 15%

Indonesia 8%

United States 6%

Malaysia 5%

Germany 4%

Finland 3%

other 43%

United States 19%

Japan 13%

China 8%

Germany 5%

Malaysia 5%

Singapore 3%

New Zealand 4%

other 43%

United States

Japan

China

Germany

Malaysia

Singapore

New Zealand

other

11%

8%

19%

5%

3%

5%

3%

46%

China 3%

ASEAN 16%

other Asia 6%

European Union 27 26%

New Zealand 17%

United States 14%

other 18%

China

ASEAN

other Asia

European Union 27

New Zealand

United States

other

6%

20%

4%

24%

18%

11%

17%

2010–112000–01

Total $157.2b $214.1b

$6.9b $11.0bAgriculture

$5.1b $4.4b

$1.5b $1.5b

Forestry

FisheriesThailand 21%

New Zealand 14%

China 2%

Vietnam 4%

Malaysia 3%

United States 7%

other 49%

Thailand 22%

New Zealand 14%

China 12%

Vietnam 11%

Malaysia 5%

United States 3%

other 33%


FIGURE 4 Principal markets for Australian agricultural, forestry and fisheries exports (nominal)

Quantity wheat

kt

Value wheat

$m

Quantity barley

kt

Value barley

$m

Quantity sugar

kt

Value sugar

$m

Quantity wine

ML

Value wine

$m

2010–112000–01

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

China

Japan

United ArabEmirates

Saudi Arabia

Korea, Rep. of

Vietnam

300 600 900 1200 1500

China

Japan

United ArabEmirates

Saudi Arabia

Korea, Rep. of

Vietnam

50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Korea, Rep. of

Indonesia

Malaysia

Japan

New Zealand

United States

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Korea, Rep. of

Indonesia

Malaysia

Japan

New Zealand

United States

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

50 100 150 200 250

United Kingdom

United States

Canada

China

Germany

New Zealand

United Kingdom

United States

Canada

China

Germany

New Zealand

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Indonesia

Vietnam

Korea, Rep. of

Japan

Malaysia

China

Indonesia

Vietnam

Korea, Rep. of

Japan

Malaysia

China

Export markets


Export markets


Quantity wool

kt

Value wool

$m

Quantity beef and veal

kt

Value beef and veal

$m

Quantity sheep meat

kt

Value sheep meat

$m

Quantity cheese

kt

Value cheese

$m

2010–112000–01

China

India

Italy

Czech Republic

Chinese Taipei

Korea, Rep. of

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

China

India

Italy

Czech Republic

Chinese Taipei

Korea, Rep. of

Japan

United States

Korea, Rep. of

RussianFederation

RussianFederation

Indonesia

Chinese Taipei

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

Japan

United States

Korea, Rep. of

Indonesia

Chinese Taipei

500 1000 1500 2000

United States

China

United ArabEmirates

Saudi Arabia

Japan

EuropeanUnion 27

10 20 30 40 50 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

Japan

Korea, Rep. of

Saudi Arabia

Singapore

Hong Kong

United States

Japan

Korea, Rep. of

Saudi Arabia

Singapore

Hong Kong

United States

20 40 60 80 100 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

United States

China

United ArabEmirates

EuropeanUnion 27

Japan

Saudi Arabia



Quantity paper and paperboard

kt

Value paper and paperboard

$m

Quantity woodchips

kt

Value woodchips

$m

Quantity edible �sh

kt

Value edible �sh

$m

Quantity edible crustaceans and molluscs

kt

Value edible crustaceans and molluscs

$m

2010–112000–01

1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

50 100 150 200 250 300 350

New Zealand

United States

China

South Africa

Philippines

New Zealand

United States

China

South Africa

Philippines

50 100 150 200 250 50 100 150 200 250

Japan

China

Chinese Taipei

Korea, Rep. of

Japan

China

Chinese Taipei

Korea, Rep. of

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Japan

China

Thailand

Hong Kong

New Zealand

Indonesia

Japan

China

Thailand

Hong Kong

New Zealand

Indonesia

5 10 15 20

Hong Kong

China

Japan

Singapore

Chinese Taipei

Malaysia

Hong Kong

China

Japan

Singapore

Chinese Taipei

Malaysia

2 4 6 8 10 12 100 200 300 400 500

Export markets


Prices

TABLE 1 Indexes of prices received by farmers Australia

2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 f 2012–13 f2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 f 2012 13 fCrops sector Crops sector GrainsGrainsWinter cropsWinter crops

b l 196 9 145 3 108 3 129 8 114 3 112 6barley 196.9 145.3 108.3 129.8 114.3 112.6lcanola 140.7 142.2 113.4 141.0 127.7 116.3

lupins 171.0 142.9 127.0 137.1 113.8 125.1poats 136.9 158.3 116.9 139.9 142.4 132.7oats 136.9 158.3 116.9 139.9 142.4 132.7wheat 197.2 142.1 110.4 138.0 128.2 125.5wheat 197.2 142.1 110.4 138.0 128.2 125.5

Summer cropsSummer cropsgrain sorghum 152 4 121 3 115 9 128 2 95 8 88 4grain sorghum 152.4 121.3 115.9 128.2 95.8 88.4

Total grains a 178.3 137.4 108.5 130.3 119.9 116.2Total grains a 178.3 137.4 108.5 130.3 119.9 116.2

Cotton 87 7 96 7 98 4 144 2 111 5 104 4Cotton 87.7 96.7 98.4 144.2 111.5 104.4S gar 80 6 98 3 137 8 128 0 136 9 111 3Sugar 80.6 98.3 137.8 128.0 136.9 111.3H 254 6 219 0 181 5 151 1 128 4 109 2Hay 254.6 219.0 181.5 151.1 128.4 109.2yFruit 148.4 148.2 146.6 181.8 192.8 197.6Vegetables 153.7 152.9 150.4 167.3 160.1 164.1Vegetables 153.7 152.9 150.4 167.3 160.1 164.1

Total crops sector 138 0 120 2 108 9 127 2 119 6 117 1Total crops sector 138.0 120.2 108.9 127.2 119.6 117.1

Livestock sectorLivestock sectorLivestock for slaughterLivestock for slaughter

cattle 164 6 171 3 160 0 174 5 178 1 172 8 cattle 164.6 171.3 160.0 174.5 178.1 172.8lambs b 170 3 204 3 218 7 255 4 237 7 240 0 lambs b 170.3 204.3 218.7 255.4 237.7 240.0h 183 3 216 8 343 3 438 0 369 7 380 7 sheep 183.3 216.8 343.3 438.0 369.7 380.7

l h f live sheep for export 180.7 214.2 249.3 305.7 351.8 357.8p p pigs 120.7 140.1 147.1 130.3 135.9 133.0p g poultry 109.4 120.0 114.1 109.8 106.8 105.3 poultry 109.4 120.0 114.1 109.8 106.8 105.3

total 152 7 165 5 163 7 175 9 175 6 172 7 total 152.7 165.5 163.7 175.9 175.6 172.7

Livestock productsp

wool 127 9 109 2 116 0 158 4 169 8 150 0 wool 127.9 109.2 116.0 158.4 169.8 150.0milk 166 1 142 3 125 2 144 7 137 4 124 0 milk 166.1 142.3 125.2 144.7 137.4 124.0

107 5 108 5 105 5 104 2 103 8 104 8 eggs 107.5 108.5 105.5 104.2 103.8 104.8

total 147.0 127.5 120.0 144.6 144.4 130.7 total 147.0 127.5 120.0 144.6 144.4 130.7

Store and breeding stock 153 8 161 2 168 4 195 5 201 8 199 2Store and breeding stock 153.8 161.2 168.4 195.5 201.8 199.2

Total livestock sector 148.2 149.2 145.7 163.2 163.3 156.3Total livestock sector 148.2 149.2 145.7 163.2 163.3 156.3

Total prices received 141 7 132 5 124 7 142 7 138 2 133 8Total prices received 141.7 132.5 124.7 142.7 138.2 133.8

a Total for the group includes commodities not separately listed. b Lamb saleyard indicator weight 18–22 kg. f ABARES forecast.Notes: ABARE revised the method for calculating these indexes in October 1999 The indexes for commodity groups are calculated on aa Total for the group includes commodities not separately listed. b Lamb saleyard indicator weight 18–22 kg. f ABARES forecast.Notes: ABARE revised the method for calculating these indexes in October 1999. The indexes for commodity groups are calculated on a chained weight basis using Fisher's ideal index with a reference year of 1997 98 100 Indexes for most individual commodities are based on

a Total for the group includes commodities not separately listed. b Lamb saleyard indicator weight 18–22 kg. f ABARES forecast.Notes: ABARE revised the method for calculating these indexes in October 1999. The indexes for commodity groups are calculated on a chained weight basis using Fisher's ideal index with a reference year of 1997–98 = 100. Indexes for most individual commodities are based on annual gross unit value of production Prices used in these calculations exclude GST

Notes: ABARE revised the method for calculating these indexes in October 1999. The indexes for commodity groups are calculated on a chained weight basis using Fisher's ideal index with a reference year of 1997–98 = 100. Indexes for most individual commodities are based on annual gross unit value of production. Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.Source: ABARES

chained weight basis using Fisher's ideal index with a reference year of 1997–98 = 100. Indexes for most individual commodities are based on annual gross unit value of production. Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.Source: ABARESannual gross unit value of production. Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.Source: ABARESSource: ABARES


Prices

TABLE 2 Indexes of prices paid by farmers, and terms of trade Australia

2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 f 2012–13 f2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13

Farmers’ terms of trade a 91.4 88.9 88.6 98.5 93.7 91.9Farmers terms of trade a 91.4 88.9 88.6 98.5 93.7 91.9

Materials and ser icesMaterials and servicesS d f dd d li kSeed, fodder and livestock

fodder and feedstuffs 195.3 167.9 145.6 121.0 114.9 113.7seed, seedlings and plants 135.0 120.6 109.3 122.0 118.6 118.2seed, seedlings and plants 135.0 120.6 109.3 122.0 118.6 118.2store and breeding stock 153.8 161.2 168.4 195.5 201.8 199.2store and breeding stock 153.8 161.2 168.4 195.5 201.8 199.2

total 178 0 161 7 146 7 138 3 135 5 134 0total 178.0 161.7 146.7 138.3 135.5 134.0

Chemicals 149.7 136.7 116.2 110.4 113.1 112.4Chemicals 149.7 136.7 116.2 110.4 113.1 112.4Electricity 111.3 121.4 142.0 158.8 176.1 180.6Electricity 111.3 121.4 142.0 158.8 176.1 180.6Fertiliser 220 4 239 6 156 0 157 3 165 3 164 2Fertiliser 220.4 239.6 156.0 157.3 165.3 164.2Fuel and lubricants 243 7 211 0 191 7 211 3 232 2 207 9Fuel and lubricants 243.7 211.0 191.7 211.3 232.2 207.9T t l 170 8 164 2 146 3 146 3 149 7 148 2Total 170.8 164.2 146.3 146.3 149.7 148.2Labour 138.0 142.6 147.3 151.8 155.4 159.4Labour 138.0 142.6 147.3 151.8 155.4 159.4

Marketing 143 2 137 1 133 9 144 7 155 5 150 7Marketing 143.2 137.1 133.9 144.7 155.5 150.7

OverheadsO e eadsInsurance 143.5 155.6 167.0 173.7 184.6 189.2Insurance 143.5 155.6 167.0 173.7 184.6 189.2Interest paid 142.6 116.7 111.1 122.3 114.8 103.7Interest paid 142.6 116.7 111.1 122.3 114.8 103.7Rates and taxes 137.3 141.6 144.8 149.3 152.8 156.7Rates and taxes 137.3 141.6 144.8 149.3 152.8 156.7Other overheads 132.8 137.1 140.5 144.8 148.3 152.0Other overheads 132.8 137.1 140.5 144.8 148.3 152.0Total 141 8 126 6 124 3 133 6 129 7 122 9Total 141.8 126.6 124.3 133.6 129.7 122.9Capital items 136.8 141.1 144.7 149.3 153.1 157.3pTotal prices paid 155.1 149.0 140.7 144.9 147.5 145.5Total prices paid 155.1 149.0 140.7 144.9 147.5 145.5

E l di i l i 157 3 150 0 140 3 144 4 146 9 144 4Excluding capital items 157.3 150.0 140.3 144.4 146.9 144.4g pExcluding capital and overheads 161.7 156.9 144.8 147.2 151.7 150.6Excluding capital and overheads 161.7 156.9 144.8 147.2 151.7 150.6Excluding seed, fodder andExcluding seed, fodder and

store and breeding stock 150 3 146 4 139 4 146 2 150 0 147 9store and breeding stock 150.3 146.4 139.4 146.2 150.0 147.9

a Ratio of index of prices received by farmers and index of prices paid by farmers f ABARES forecasta Ratio of index of prices received by farmers and index of prices paid by farmers. f ABARES forecast. Notes: ABARE revised the method for calculating these indexes in October 1999 The indexes for commodity groups are calculated on a chaineda Ratio of index of prices received by farmers and index of prices paid by farmers. f ABARES forecast. Notes: ABARE revised the method for calculating these indexes in October 1999. The indexes for commodity groups are calculated on a chained weight basis using Fisher’s ideal index with a reference year of 1997–98 = 100 Prices used in these calculations exclude GST

a Ratio of index of prices received by farmers and index of prices paid by farmers. f ABARES forecast. Notes: ABARE revised the method for calculating these indexes in October 1999. The indexes for commodity groups are calculated on a chained weight basis using Fisher’s ideal index with a reference year of 1997–98 = 100. Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

Notes: ABARE revised the method for calculating these indexes in October 1999. The indexes for commodity groups are calculated on a chained weight basis using Fisher’s ideal index with a reference year of 1997–98 = 100. Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsweight basis using Fisher s ideal index with a reference year of 1997–98 = 100. Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsweight basis using Fisher s ideal index with a reference year of 1997–98 = 100. Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of StatisticsSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics


Costs and returns

TABLE 3 Farm costs and returns Australia

unit 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 f 2012–13 funit 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 f 2012 13 fCosts Costs Materials and servicesMaterials and services

chemicals $m 1 901 1 792 1 505 1 458 1 471 1 468chemicals $m 1 901 1 792 1 505 1 458 1 471 1 468fertiliser $m 3 034 3 381 2 153 2 250 2 364 2 379fertiliser $m 3 034 3 381 2 153 2 250 2 364 2 379fuel and lubricants $m 2 551 2 243 1 972 2 261 2 495 2 264fuel and lubricants $m 2 551 2 243 1 972 2 261 2 495 2 264marketing $m 3 180 3 733 3 815 3 842 3 973 3 848marketing $m 3 180 3 733 3 815 3 842 3 973 3 848repairs and maintenance $m 3 073 3 080 3 005 3 799 3 983 3 993repairs and maintenance $m 3 073 3 080 3 005 3 799 3 983 3 993

d d f dd $ 6 177 5 263 4 542 4 241 4 133 4 194seed and fodder $m 6 177 5 263 4 542 4 241 4 133 4 194h $ 3 659 3 829 3 968 4 296 4 455 4 573other $m 3 659 3 829 3 968 4 296 4 455 4 573

total $m 23 575 23 320 20 960 22 147 22 873 22 718total $m 23 575 23 320 20 960 22 147 22 873 22 718

Labour $m 3 667 3 827 3 789 4 173 4 271 4 515Labour $m 3 667 3 827 3 789 4 173 4 271 4 515O h dOverheads

i t t id $ 4 901 4 331 4 455 5 023 4 836 4 587interest paid $m 4 901 4 331 4 455 5 023 4 836 4 587d h d $rent and third party insurance $m 462 477 493 513 525 538p y

Total $m 9 030 8 634 8 736 9 708 9 633 9 640ota $ 9 030 8 63 8 36 9 08 9 633 9 6 0Total cash costs $m 32 605 31 955 29 697 31 855 32 506 32 358Total cash costs $m 32 605 31 955 29 697 31 855 32 506 32 358

D i i $ 4 532 4 676 4 794 4 945 5 073 5 210Depreciation a $m 4 532 4 676 4 794 4 945 5 073 5 210

Total farm costs $m 37 137 36 631 34 491 36 801 37 578 37 568Total farm costs $m 37 137 36 631 34 491 36 801 37 578 37 568

ReturnsReturns G l f f d ti $ 43 752 41 918 39 675 48 139 48 717 47 076Gross value of farm production $m 43 752 41 918 39 675 48 139 48 717 47 076

Net returns and production Net returns and production Net value of farm production b $m 6 615 5 287 5 184 11 338 11 138 9 508Net value of farm production b $m 6 615 5 287 5 184 11 338 11 138 9 508Real net value of farm production c $m 7 367 5 710 5 470 11 605 11 138 9 273Real net value of farm production c $m 7 367 5 710 5 470 11 605 11 138 9 273N t f h i d $m 10 834 5 854 9 978 16 283 16 211 14 718Net farm cash income d $m 10 834 5 854 9 978 16 283 16 211 14 718R l f h i $ 12 066 6 322 10 529 16 667 16 211 14 354Real net farm cash income c $m 12 066 6 322 10 529 16 667 16 211 14 354

a Based on estimated movements in capital expenditure and prices of capital inputs b Gross value of farm production less total farm costsa Based on estimated movements in capital expenditure and prices of capital inputs. b Gross value of farm production less total farm costs.c In 2011–12 Australian dollars. d Gross farm cash income less total cash costs. f ABARES forecast.Note: Prices used in these calculations exclude GST

a Based on estimated movements in capital expenditure and prices of capital inputs. b Gross value of farm production less total farm costs.c In 2011–12 Australian dollars. d Gross farm cash income less total cash costs. f ABARES forecast.Note: Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

c In 2011–12 Australian dollars. d Gross farm cash income less total cash costs. f ABARES forecast.Note: Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

c In 2011–12 Australian dollars. d Gross farm cash income less total cash costs. f ABARES forecast.Note: Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of StatisticsNote: Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics


Exports

FIGURE 5 Contribution to exports by sector, balance of payments basis Australia

2006–07

2009–10

2010–11

2007–08

2008–09

othermerchandise

23%

rural a16%

mineralresources

61%

othermerchandise

18%

rural a15%

mineralresources

67%

mineralresources

71%

rural a14%

othermerchandise

15%

othermerchandise

24%

rural a18%

mineralresources

58%

services17%

rural a12%

othermerchandise

13%

mineralresources58%

services 20%

rural a12%

othermerchandise

15%

mineralresources53%

services19%

rural a12%

othermerchandise

14%

mineralresources55%

services21%

rural a13%

othermerchandise

18%

mineralresources47%

services22%

rural a14%

othermerchandise

19%

mineralresources45%

othermerchandise

17%

rural a15%

mineralresources

68%

Proportion ofmerchandise exports

Proportion of exportsof goods and services

a ABARES rural balance of payments : adjusted to include farm, �sheries and forestry products classi�ed as other merchandise by ABS.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics


Sectors

TABLE 5 Industry gross value added a, b Australia

unit 2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11unit 2005 06 2006 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11

Agriculture forestry and fishingAgriculture, forestry and fishing

agriculture $m 23 203 18 992 20 572 24 635 24 265 24 919 agriculture $m 23 203 18 992 20 572 24 635 24 265 24 919forestry and fishing $m 4 194 4 131 4 176 4 478 4 500 4 876 forestry and fishing $m 4 194 4 131 4 176 4 478 4 500 4 876

t t l $ 27 302 23 138 24 742 29 108 28 765 29 796 total $m 27 302 23 138 24 742 29 108 28 765 29 796

Mining $m 79 688 86 446 88 193 90 508 96 106 97 447Mining $m 79 688 86 446 88 193 90 508 96 106 97 447

M f t iManufacturing food, beverage and alcohol $m 22 928 23 160 23 127 22 404 23 953 23 576, g $ textile, clothing, footwear and leather $m 9 348 9 262 9 695 8 688 7 150 6 647 textile, clothing, footwear and leather $m 9 348 9 262 9 695 8 688 7 150 6 647

wood and paper products $m 8 645 8 400 8 071 7 457 7 736 7 567 wood and paper products $m 8 645 8 400 8 071 7 457 7 736 7 567printing publishing and recorded media $m 5 002 5 048 5 174 4 268 4 088 4 101 printing, publishing and recorded media $m 5 002 5 048 5 174 4 268 4 088 4 101petroleum coal chemical products $m 18 994 18 652 19 114 17 200 17 807 17 907 petroleum, coal, chemical products $m 18 994 18 652 19 114 17 200 17 807 17 907non metallic mineral products $m 5 547 5 673 5 926 5 890 5 783 5 608 non-metallic mineral products $m 5 547 5 673 5 926 5 890 5 783 5 608metal products $m 18 562 20 408 22 718 21 992 21 310 21 515 metal products $m 18 562 20 408 22 718 21 992 21 310 21 515

hi d i t $ 19 279 19 257 19 884 18 760 19 881 19 552 machinery and equipment $m 19 279 19 257 19 884 18 760 19 881 19 552

total $m 106 646 108 703 113 062 106 363 107 707 106 476 total $m 106 646 108 703 113 062 106 363 107 707 106 476

Building and construction $m 82 078 86 469 92 517 95 291 95 804 101 794Building and construction $m 82 078 86 469 92 517 95 291 95 804 101 794

Electricity, gas and water supply $m 26 546 26 798 26 866 27 894 28 623 28 893Electricity, gas and water supply $m 26 546 26 798 26 866 27 894 28 623 28 893Taxes less subsidies on products $m 87 446 89 888 91 667 90 826 90 334 91 073Taxes less subsidies on products $m 87 446 89 888 91 667 90 826 90 334 91 073

St ti ti l di $ 1 0 0 1 0 3 577Statistical discrepancy $m 1 0 0 – 1 0 –3 577

Gross domestic product $m 1157 783 1 201 562 1 246 899 1 263 934 1 293 380 1 317 914Gross domestic product $m 1157 783 1 201 562 1 246 899 1 263 934 1 293 380 1 317 914

a Chain volume measures reference year is 2009 10 b ANZSIC 2006 0 is used to denote nil or less than $0 5 milliona Chain volume measures, reference year is 2009–10. b ANZSIC 2006. 0 is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Australian National Accounts: National Income Expenditure and Product cat no 5206 0 Canberraa Chain volume measures, reference year is 2009–10. b ANZSIC 2006. 0 is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, cat. no. 5206.0, CanberraSource: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, cat. no. 5206.0, CanberraSource: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, cat. no. 5206.0, Canberra

TABLE 4 Volume of production indexes Australia

2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 f 2012–13 f2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13FarmFarmGrains and oilseeds 88.0 116.2 116.8 143.1 155.4 135.7Grains and oilseeds 88.0 116.2 116.8 143.1 155.4 135.7Total crops 103.9 113.4 114.4 126.3 136.8 131.5Total crops 103.9 113.4 114.4 126.3 136.8 131.5

Li estock sla ghterings 113 4 112 1 109 6 110 7 109 7 113 8Livestock slaughterings 113.4 112.1 109.6 110.7 109.7 113.8T l li k 102 3 100 8 98 8 100 6 100 8 104 2Total livestock 102.3 100.8 98.8 100.6 100.8 104.2T l f 03 9 08 2 0 6 2 9 8Total farm sector 103.9 108.2 107.6 114.2 119.5 118.7

Forestry aForestry aBroadleaved 130 1 120 8 108 2 110 8 100 8 107 2Broadleaved 130.1 120.8 108.2 110.8 100.8 107.2Coniferous 136 3 117 5 127 4 132 7 121 9 126 2Coniferous 136.3 117.5 127.4 132.7 121.9 126.2Total forestry 133 3 119 5 118 7 122 7 112 3 117 6Total forestry 133.3 119.5 118.7 122.7 112.3 117.6

a Volume of logs harvested excluding firewood. f ABARES forecast.Note: ABARE revised the method for calculating production indexes in October 1999 The indexes for the different groups of commodities area Volume of logs harvested excluding firewood. f ABARES forecast.Note: ABARE revised the method for calculating production indexes in October 1999 The indexes for the different groups of commodities area Volume of logs harvested excluding firewood. f ABARES forecast.Note: ABARE revised the method for calculating production indexes in October 1999. The indexes for the different groups of commodities are calculated on a chained weight basis using Fisher’s ideal index with a reference year of 1997–98 = 100

a Volume of logs harvested excluding firewood. f ABARES forecast.Note: ABARE revised the method for calculating production indexes in October 1999. The indexes for the different groups of commodities are calculated on a chained weight basis using Fisher’s ideal index with a reference year of 1997–98 = 100. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

Note: ABARE revised the method for calculating production indexes in October 1999. The indexes for the different groups of commodities are calculated on a chained weight basis using Fisher’s ideal index with a reference year of 1997–98 = 100. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticscalculated on a chained weight basis using Fisher s ideal index with a reference year of 1997–98 = 100. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of StatisticsSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics


Employment, banks

TABLE 6 Employment a, b Australia

2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–112005 06 2006 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11’000 ’000 ’000 ’000 ’000 ’000000 000 000 000 000 000

Agriculture forestry and fishingAgriculture, forestry and fishingagriculture 300 306 302 322 325 307agriculture 300 306 302 322 325 307f d l i 8 8 8 8 7 6forestry and logging 8 8 8 8 7 6commercial fishing c 12 10 14 9 11 12commercial fishing c 12 10 14 9 11 12support services 27 26 30 24 26 27support services 27 26 30 24 26 27

total 348 350 354 362 369 351total 348 350 354 362 369 351Mi iMining 129 135 146 170 173 2059 35 6 0 3 05ManufacturingManufacturing

food beverages and tobacco 205 214 229 226 228 229food, beverages and tobacco 205 214 229 226 228 229l l h f d l htextiles, clothing, footwear and leather 56 50 50 48 46 45g

wood and paper product 77 78 69 67 64 57wood and paper product 77 78 69 67 64 57printing, publishing and recorded media 52 51 54 51 52 56printing, publishing and recorded media 52 51 54 51 52 56petroleum coal and chemical product 88 92 98 90 88 85petroleum, coal and chemical product 88 92 98 90 88 85

t lli i l d t 38 36 42 40 37 37non-metallic mineral product 38 36 42 40 37 37metal product 161 161 159 157 147 147pother manufacturing 347 342 359 348 343 336other manufacturing 347 342 359 348 343 336

total 1 025 1 024 1 060 1 028 1 006 992total 1 025 1 024 1 060 1 028 1 006 992Other industries 8 587 8 864 9 124 9 332 9 479 9 806Total 10 088 10 374 10 684 10 892 11 027 11 355Total 10 088 10 374 10 684 10 892 11 027 11 355

a Average employment over four quarters b ANZSIC 2006 Caution should be used when utilising employment statistics at the ANZSICa Average employment over four quarters. b ANZSIC 2006. Caution should be used when utilising employment statistics at the ANZSIC subdivision and group levels due to estimates that may be subject to sampling variability and standard errors too high for most practical purposesa Average employment over four quarters. b ANZSIC 2006. Caution should be used when utilising employment statistics at the ANZSIC subdivision and group levels due to estimates that may be subject to sampling variability and standard errors too high for most practical purposes. c Includes aquaculture fishing hunting and trapping

a Average employment over four quarters. b ANZSIC 2006. Caution should be used when utilising employment statistics at the ANZSIC subdivision and group levels due to estimates that may be subject to sampling variability and standard errors too high for most practical purposes. c Includes aquaculture, fishing, hunting and trapping.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Labour Force, Australia, cat. no. 6291.0, Canberra

subdivision and group levels due to estimates that may be subject to sampling variability and standard errors too high for most practical purposes. c Includes aquaculture, fishing, hunting and trapping.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Labour Force, Australia, cat. no. 6291.0, Canberrac Includes aquaculture, fishing, hunting and trapping.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Labour Force, Australia, cat. no. 6291.0, Canberra

TABLE 7 All banks lending to business a Australia

2009–10 2010–11 2011–122009 10 2010 11 2011 12

M J S D M J S DMar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Decp p$b $b $b $b $b $b $b $b$b $b $b $b $b $b $b $b

Agriculture fishingAgriculture, fishing and forestry 57 8 59 1 58 7 58 8 58 6 60 4 60 5 60 1 and forestry 57.8 59.1 58.7 58.8 58.6 60.4 60.5 60.1

Mining 14 1 12 1 11 3 11 2 11 0 12 1 13 2 14 1Mining 14.1 12.1 11.3 11.2 11.0 12.1 13.2 14.1M f i 40 8 39 2 38 6 38 2 40 1 39 9 42 1 42 0Manufacturing 40.8 39.2 38.6 38.2 40.1 39.9 42.1 42.0Construction 29.3 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.7 28.4 27.7 26.8Wholesale and retail trade,Wholesale and retail trade, transport and storage 91.9 90.5 89.3 92.0 92.6 92.5 95.2 96.8 transport and storage 91.9 90.5 89.3 92.0 92.6 92.5 95.2 96.8Finance and insurance 126 2 133 0 132 0 125 0 121 2 114 8 120 1 120 1Finance and insurance 126.2 133.0 132.0 125.0 121.2 114.8 120.1 120.1Other 305 3 307 3 306 6 303 9 309 0 307 1 306 4 315 3Other 305.3 307.3 306.6 303.9 309.0 307.1 306.4 315.3

Total 665.4 669.3 664.7 657.2 661.2 655.2 665.2 675.2

a Includes variable and fixed interest rate loans outstanding plus bank bills outstandinga Includes variable and fixed interest rate loans outstanding plus bank bills outstanding.Source: Reserve Bank of Australia Bank Lending to Business – Selected Statistics Bulletin Statistical Table D8a Includes variable and fixed interest rate loans outstanding plus bank bills outstanding.Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank Lending to Business – Selected Statistics, Bulletin Statistical Table D8a Includes variable and fixed interest rate loans outstanding plus bank bills outstanding.Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank Lending to Business – Selected Statistics, Bulletin Statistical Table D8


Farm debt, world prices

TABLE 8 Rural indebtedness to financial institutions a Australia

2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–112005 06 2006 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $m

Rural debtRural debtAll banks 43 546 47 188 53 743 57 384 59 064 60 362All banks a 43 546 47 188 53 743 57 384 59 064 60 362O h i b 1 073 1 286 1 409 1 620 1 812 1 871Other government agencies b 1 073 1 286 1 409 1 620 1 812 1 871Pastoral and other

finance companies 3 454 4 592 5 126 4 462 2 029 2 010finance companies 3 454 4 592 5 126 4 462 2 029 2 010

Large finance institutional debt c 48 073 53 066 60 278 63 467 62 905 64 243Large finance institutional debt c 48 073 53 066 60 278 63 467 62 905 64 243

DepositsDepositsFarm management deposits 2 797 2 782 2 879 2 843 2 784 3 216Farm management deposits 2 797 2 782 2 879 2 843 2 784 3 216

a Derived from all banks lending to agriculture fishing and forestry b Includes the government agency business of state banks and advancesa Derived from all banks lending to agriculture, fishing and forestry. b Includes the government agency business of state banks and advances made under War Service Land Settlement Prior to 1996 includes loans from the Queensland Industry Development Corporation From 1996a Derived from all banks lending to agriculture, fishing and forestry. b Includes the government agency business of state banks and advances made under War Service Land Settlement. Prior to 1996, includes loans from the Queensland Industry Development Corporation. From 1996 these loans are included in bank lending c Sum of the above

a Derived from all banks lending to agriculture, fishing and forestry. b Includes the government agency business of state banks and advances made under War Service Land Settlement. Prior to 1996, includes loans from the Queensland Industry Development Corporation. From 1996 these loans are included in bank lending. c Sum of the above. Sources: ABARES; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry; Reserve Bank of Australia, Estimated Rural Debt to Specified Lenders, Bulletin

made under War Service Land Settlement. Prior to 1996, includes loans from the Queensland Industry Development Corporation. From 1996 these loans are included in bank lending. c Sum of the above. Sources: ABARES; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry; Reserve Bank of Australia, Estimated Rural Debt to Specified Lenders, Bulletin Statistical Table D9

these loans are included in bank lending. c Sum of the above. Sources: ABARES; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry; Reserve Bank of Australia, Estimated Rural Debt to Specified Lenders, Bulletin Statistical Table D9Sources: ABARES; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry; Reserve Bank of Australia, Estimated Rural Debt to Specified Lenders, Bulletin Statistical Table D9Statistical Table D9

TABLE 9 Annual world indicator prices of selected commodities

unit 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 f 2012–13 funit 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 f 2012–13 f

WorldWorldCropsCropsWheat US$/t 362 271 209 317 298 260Wheat a US$/t 362 271 209 317 298 260Corn b US$/t 218 173 163 277 271 244Corn b US$/t 218 173 163 277 271 244Ri US$/t 551 609 532 518 615 550Rice c US$/t 551 609 532 518 615 550ce cSoybeans d US$/t 549 421 429 549 535 515Soybeans d US$/t 549 421 429 549 535 515C US /lb 72 9 61 2 77 5 164 3 103 0 86 0Cotton e USc/lb 72.9 61.2 77.5 164.3 103.0 86.0Cotton e USc/lb 72.9 61.2 77.5 164.3 103.0 86.0Sugar g USc/lb 11 7 14 9 21 0 27 7 22 5 20 0Sugar g USc/lb 11.7 14.9 21.0 27.7 22.5 20.0g g

Livestock productsLivestock productspBeef h USc/kg 294 307 319 391 433 440Beef h USc/kg 294 307 319 391 433 440W l A /k 945 794 872 1 132 1 208 1 070Wool i Ac/kg 945 794 872 1 132 1 208 1 070Wool i Ac/kg 945 794 872 1 132 1 208 1 070Butter j US$/t 4 027 2 485 3 477 4 683 3 885 3 250Butter j US$/t 4 027 2 485 3 477 4 683 3 885 3 250jCheese j US$/t 5 073 3 281 3 748 4 221 4 237 3 900Cheese j US$/t 5 073 3 281 3 748 4 221 4 237 3 900Ski ilk d US$/ 4 204 2 333 2 948 3 392 3 200 2 840Skim milk powder j US$/t 4 204 2 333 2 948 3 392 3 200 2 840Skim milk powder j US$/t 4 204 2 333 2 948 3 392 3 200 2 840

a US hard red winter wheat fob Gulf b US no 2 yellow corn delivered US Gulf c USDA nominal quote for Thai white rice 100 per cent Grade Ba US hard red winter wheat fob Gulf b US no 2 yellow corn delivered US Gulf c USDA nominal quote for Thai white rice 100 per cent Grade Ba US hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf. b US no. 2 yellow corn, delivered US Gulf. c USDA nominal quote for Thai white rice, 100 per cent, Grade B, fob Bangkok (August–July basis) d US cif Rotterdam (October–September basis) e Cotlook ’A’ index f ABARES forecast g Nearby futures pricea US hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf. b US no. 2 yellow corn, delivered US Gulf. c USDA nominal quote for Thai white rice, 100 per cent, Grade B, fob, Bangkok (August–July basis). d US cif Rotterdam (October–September basis). e Cotlook ’A’ index. f ABARES forecast. g Nearby futures price (October–September basis) Intercontinental Exchange New York No 11 contract h US cif price i Australian Wool Exchange eastern market

a US hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf. b US no. 2 yellow corn, delivered US Gulf. c USDA nominal quote for Thai white rice, 100 per cent, Grade B, fob, Bangkok (August–July basis). d US cif Rotterdam (October–September basis). e Cotlook ’A’ index. f ABARES forecast. g Nearby futures price (October–September basis) Intercontinental Exchange New York No 11 contract h US cif price i Australian Wool Exchange eastern market

a US hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf. b US no. 2 yellow corn, delivered US Gulf. c USDA nominal quote for Thai white rice, 100 per cent, Grade B, fob, Bangkok (August–July basis). d US cif Rotterdam (October–September basis). e Cotlook ’A’ index. f ABARES forecast. g Nearby futures price (October–September basis), Intercontinental Exchange, New York No. 11 contract. h US cif price. i Australian Wool Exchange eastern market indicator. j Average of traded prices (excluding subsidised sales).

fob, Bangkok (August–July basis). d US cif Rotterdam (October–September basis). e Cotlook A index. f ABARES forecast. g Nearby futures price (October–September basis), Intercontinental Exchange, New York No. 11 contract. h US cif price. i Australian Wool Exchange eastern market indicator. j Average of traded prices (excluding subsidised sales). Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Australian Dairy Corporation; Meat & Livestock Australia; Australian Wool Exchange; Cotlook Ltd;

(October–September basis), Intercontinental Exchange, New York No. 11 contract. h US cif price. i Australian Wool Exchange eastern market indicator. j Average of traded prices (excluding subsidised sales). Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Australian Dairy Corporation; Meat & Livestock Australia; Australian Wool Exchange; Cotlook Ltd; Food and Agriculture Organization; General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade; International Grains Council; ISTA Mielke and Co.; New York Board of

indicator. j Average of traded prices (excluding subsidised sales). Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Australian Dairy Corporation; Meat & Livestock Australia; Australian Wool Exchange; Cotlook Ltd; Food and Agriculture Organization; General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade; International Grains Council; ISTA Mielke and Co.; New York Board of

indicator. j Average of traded prices (excluding subsidised sales). Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Australian Dairy Corporation; Meat & Livestock Australia; Australian Wool Exchange; Cotlook Ltd; Food and Agriculture Organization; General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade; International Grains Council; ISTA Mielke and Co.; New York Board of Trade; Reuters Ltd; United States Department of Agriculture; Intercontinental Exchange

Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Australian Dairy Corporation; Meat & Livestock Australia; Australian Wool Exchange; Cotlook Ltd; Food and Agriculture Organization; General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade; International Grains Council; ISTA Mielke and Co.; New York Board of Trade; Reuters Ltd; United States Department of Agriculture; Intercontinental Exchange

g g ; g ; ; ;Trade; Reuters Ltd; United States Department of Agriculture; Intercontinental Exchange

g g ; g ; ; ;Trade; Reuters Ltd; United States Department of Agriculture; Intercontinental Exchange


Gross unit values

TABLE 10 Gross unit values of farm products a

unit 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 f 2012–13 funit 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13Crops bCrops bGrains and oilseedsGrains and oilseedsWinter cropsWinter crops

barley $/t 313 231 172 207 182 179barley $/t 313 231 172 207 182 179canola $/t 543 548 437 544 493 448canola $/t 543 548 437 544 493 448field peas $/t 407 345 241 236 260 257field peas $/t 407 345 241 236 260 257l i $/ 335 280 248 268 223 245lupins $/t 335 280 248 268 223 245poats $/t 281 216 160 191 195 181$triticale $/t 252 257 220 197 180 174triticale $/t 252 257 220 197 180 174wheat $/t 390 281 218 273 254 248wheat $/t 390 281 218 273 254 248

Summer cropsSummer cropsmaize $/t 258 283 268 294 259 237maize $/t 258 283 268 294 259 237rice $/t 414 566 457 240 260 255rice $/t 414 566 457 240 260 255grain sorghum $/t 258 205 196 217 162 150grain sorghum $/t 258 205 196 217 162 150

b $/soybeans c $/t 554 551 551 551 531 492ysunflower seed c $/t 814 696 696 677 633 576sunflower seed c $/t 8 696 696 6 633 5 6

Industrial cropsIndustrial cropsCotton lint d c/kg 191 193 205 377 235 223Cotton lint d c/kg 191 193 205 377 235 223S ( f h ) $/Sugar cane (cut for crushing) $/t 26 32 44 38 41 36g gWine grapes $/t 787 527 464 413 450 470Wine grapes $/t 787 527 464 413 450 470

LivestockLivestockB f ttl /k 320 320 311 340 347 336Beef cattle c/kg 320 320 311 340 347 336Lambs c/kg 346 415 444 519 483 487/ gPig c/kg 239 299 291 258 269 263Pig c/kg 239 299 291 258 269 263Poultry c/kg 196 215 204 197 191 189Poultry c/kg 196 215 204 197 191 189

Livestock productsLivestock productsW l /k 503 430 456 623 668 590Wool c/kg 503 430 456 623 668 590Milk c/L 49.6 42.5 37.4 43.2 41.0 37.0

a Average gross unit value across all grades in principal markets unless otherwise indicated Includes the cost of containers commission anda Average gross unit value across all grades in principal markets, unless otherwise indicated. Includes the cost of containers, commission and other expenses incurred in getting the commodities to their principal markets These expenses are significant b Average unit gross valuea Average gross unit value across all grades in principal markets, unless otherwise indicated. Includes the cost of containers, commission and other expenses incurred in getting the commodities to their principal markets. These expenses are significant. b Average unit gross value relates to returns received from crops harvested in that year regardless of when sales take place unless otherwise indicated c Price paid by

a Average gross unit value across all grades in principal markets, unless otherwise indicated. Includes the cost of containers, commission and other expenses incurred in getting the commodities to their principal markets. These expenses are significant. b Average unit gross value relates to returns received from crops harvested in that year, regardless of when sales take place, unless otherwise indicated. c Price paid by crusher. d Australian base price for sales in the financial year indicated. f ABARES forecast.

other expenses incurred in getting the commodities to their principal markets. These expenses are significant. b Average unit gross value relates to returns received from crops harvested in that year, regardless of when sales take place, unless otherwise indicated. c Price paid by crusher. d Australian base price for sales in the financial year indicated. f ABARES forecast. Note: Prices used in these calculation exclude GST.

relates to returns received from crops harvested in that year, regardless of when sales take place, unless otherwise indicated. c Price paid by crusher. d Australian base price for sales in the financial year indicated. f ABARES forecast. Note: Prices used in these calculation exclude GST.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

crusher. d Australian base price for sales in the financial year indicated. f ABARES forecast. Note: Prices used in these calculation exclude GST.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of StatisticsNote: Prices used in these calculation exclude GST.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics


World

TABLE 11 World production, consumption, stocks and trade for selected commodities a

unit 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 f 2012–13 funit 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13

FarmFarmG iGrains

hWheatproduction Mt 607 685 679 653 695 678pconsumption Mt 602 644 652 657 688 679pclosing stocks Mt 132 172 199 195 202 201closing stocks Mt 132 172 199 195 202 201exports b Mt 110 137 128 126 143 136exports b Mt 110 137 128 126 143 136

Coarse grainsCoarse grainsproduction Mt 1 081 1 110 1 109 1 091 1 141 1 202production Mt 1 081 1 110 1 109 1 091 1 141 1 202cons mption Mt 1 064 1 083 1 108 1 131 1 144 1 184consumption Mt 1 064 1 083 1 108 1 131 1 144 1 184

l i k M 169 198 198 169 166 184closing stocks Mt 169 198 198 169 166 184gexports b Mt 127 113 123 114 116 128exports b Mt 127 113 123 114 116 128

RiceRiceproduction c Mt 431 447 440 447 462 465p Mt 431 447 440 447 462 465consumption c Mt 427 435 437 447 458 463consumption c Mt 427 435 437 447 458 463closing stocks c Mt 81 92 95 95 100 102closing stocks c Mt 81 92 95 95 100 102exports bd Mt 29 29 31 35 33 34exports bd Mt 29 29 31 35 33 34

Oilseeds and vegetable oilsOilseeds and vegetable oilsOilseedsOilseeds

production Mt 392 396 442 454 434 473production Mt 392 396 442 454 434 473ti Mt 401 402 423 443 451 466consumption Mt 401 402 423 443 451 466

closing stocks Mt 62 55 72 79 66 72gexports Mt 93 94 111 107 105 113exports Mt 93 94 111 107 105 113

Vegetable oilsVegetable oilsproduction Mt 129 134 139 147 151 157production Mt 129 134 139 147 151 157consumption Mt 126 130 138 147 153 157consumption Mt 126 130 138 147 153 157

l i t k Mt 11 13 12 10 10 11closing stocks Mt 11 13 12 10 10 11exports Mt 54 56 57 61 63 65p

Vegetable protein mealsVegetable protein mealsproduction Mt 226 224 239 253 256 264production Mt 226 224 239 253 256 264consumption Mt 223 223 236 250 254 263consumption Mt 223 223 236 250 254 263closing stocks Mt 7 6 7 9 8 9closing stocks Mt 7 6 7 9 8 9

t Mt 72 69 69 74 76 77exports Mt 72 69 69 74 76 77

Industrial cropsIndustrial cropsCottonCotton

production Mt 26 23 22 25 27 26production Mt 26 23 22 25 27 26consumption Mt 27 24 26 25 23 24consumption Mt 27 24 26 25 23 24

l i k M 13 13 10 9 15 16closing stocks Mt 13 13 10 9 15 16exports Mt 8 7 8 8 9 8exports Mt 8 7 8 8 9 8

SugarSugarproduction Mt 166 151 159 166 176 178production Mt 166 151 159 166 176 178consumption Mt 160 161 163 166 169 174consumption Mt 160 161 163 166 169 174

l i t k Mt 71 61 56 57 63 67closing stocks Mt 71 61 56 57 63 67exports Mt 48 48 53 52 50 53p

ContinuedContinued


World

TABLE 11 World production, consumption, stocks and trade for selected commodities a continued

unit 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 f 2012–13 funit 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13

Livestock productsLivestock products Meat degg

production Mt 248 251 257 258 263 266production Mt 248 251 257 258 263 266consumption Mt 246 248 254 255 259 262p

closing stocks Mt 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 2closing stocks Mt 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.2exports b Mt 24 0 23 0 24 4 25 1 25 9 26 2exports b Mt 24.0 23.0 24.4 25.1 25.9 26.2

Wool hWool h

production kt 1 201 1 104 1 119 1 118 1 120 1 133production kt 1 201 1 104 1 119 1 118 1 120 1 133cons mption di k 1 165 1 105 1 125 1 130 1 115 1 118consumption di kt 1 165 1 105 1 125 1 130 1 115 1 118closing stocks j kt 55 65 55 43 52 67closing stocks j kt 55 65 55 43 52 67exports k kt 553 484 501 507 477 481exports k kt 553 484 501 507 477 481

Butter dgg

production kt 7 872 8 039 8 155 8 535 8 724 8 900production kt 7 872 8 039 8 155 8 535 8 724 8 900consumption kt 7 471 7 546 7 808 8 067 8 241 8 400consumption kt 7 471 7 546 7 808 8 067 8 241 8 400closing stocks kt 250 281 180 186 187 205g kt 250 281 180 186 187 205exports kt 707 807 745 758 787 795exports kt 707 807 745 758 787 795

Ski ilk d lSkim milk powder gl

production d kt 3 311 3 455 3 443 3 738 3 824 3 980production d kt 3 311 3 455 3 443 3 738 3 824 3 980consumption d kt 2 997 2 936 3 083 3 379 3 480 3 540consumption d kt 2 997 2 936 3 083 3 379 3 480 3 540

l i t k dclosing stocks d kt 353 556 503 413 332 360exports kt 1 087 1 140 1 344 1 550 1 538 1 550exports kt 1 087 1 140 1 344 1 550 1 538 1 550

a Some figures are not based on precise or complete analyses. b Includes intra-EU trade. c Milled equivalent. d On a calendar year basis, e.g. a Some figures are not based on precise or complete analyses. b Includes intra-EU trade. c Milled equivalent. d On a calendar year basis, e.g. 1991–92 = 1992. e Beef and veal, mutton, lamb, goat, pig and poultry meat. f ABARES forecast. g Selected countries. h Clean equivalent. i Virgin a Some figures are not based on precise or complete analyses. b Includes intra-EU trade. c Milled equivalent. d On a calendar year basis, e.g. 1991–92 = 1992. e Beef and veal, mutton, lamb, goat, pig and poultry meat. f ABARES forecast. g Selected countries. h Clean equivalent. i Virgin a Some figures are not based on precise or complete analyses. b Includes intra-EU trade. c Milled equivalent. d On a calendar year basis, e.g. 1991–92 = 1992. e Beef and veal, mutton, lamb, goat, pig and poultry meat. f ABARES forecast. g Selected countries. h Clean equivalent. i Virgin wool at the spinning stage in 65 countries. j Held by marketing bodies and on-farm in five major exporting countries. k Five major exporting

a Some figures are not based on precise or complete analyses. b Includes intra EU trade. c Milled equivalent. d On a calendar year basis, e.g. 1991–92 = 1992. e Beef and veal, mutton, lamb, goat, pig and poultry meat. f ABARES forecast. g Selected countries. h Clean equivalent. i Virgin wool at the spinning stage in 65 countries. j Held by marketing bodies and on-farm in five major exporting countries. k Five major exporting countries. l Non-fat dry milk.

1991 92 1992. e Beef and veal, mutton, lamb, goat, pig and poultry meat. f ABARES forecast. g Selected countries. h Clean equivalent. i Virgin wool at the spinning stage in 65 countries. j Held by marketing bodies and on-farm in five major exporting countries. k Five major exporting countries. l Non-fat dry milk. Sources: ABARES; Argentine Wool Federation; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Capewools South Africa; Commodities Research Unit;

p g g j y g j p g j p gcountries. l Non-fat dry milk. Sources: ABARES; Argentine Wool Federation; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Capewools South Africa; Commodities Research Unit; Commonwealth Secretariat; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry; Economic Commission for Europe; Fearnleys; Food and

ySources: ABARES; Argentine Wool Federation; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Capewools South Africa; Commodities Research Unit; Commonwealth Secretariat; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry; Economic Commission for Europe; Fearnleys; Food and Agriculture Organization; International Grains Council; International Sugar Organization; ISTA Mielke and Co.; Meat & Livestock Australia; Ministry

f A i l F d Fi h i (J ) N Z l d D i B d N Z l d W l B d P i A l i B f L b N Z l d

gCommonwealth Secretariat; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry; Economic Commission for Europe; Fearnleys; Food and Agriculture Organization; International Grains Council; International Sugar Organization; ISTA Mielke and Co.; Meat & Livestock Australia; Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (Japan); New Zealand Dairy Board; New Zealand Wool Board; Poimena Analysis, Beef + Lamb New Zealand; U A i ti f W l E t U it d St t D t t f A i lt

Agriculture Organization; International Grains Council; International Sugar Organization; ISTA Mielke and Co.; Meat & Livestock Australia; Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (Japan); New Zealand Dairy Board; New Zealand Wool Board; Poimena Analysis, Beef + Lamb New Zealand; Uruguayan Association of Wool Exporters; United States Department of Agriculture of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (Japan); New Zealand Dairy Board; New Zealand Wool Board; Poimena Analysis, Beef + Lamb New Zealand; Uruguayan Association of Wool Exporters; United States Department of Agriculture


Australian production

TABLE 12 Agricultural, fisheries and forestry commodity production Australia

unit 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 f 2012–13 funit 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13CropsCropsGrains and oilseedsGrains and oilseedsWinter cropsWinter crops

barley kt 7 160 7 997 7 865 8 145 8 572 7 302barley kt 7 160 7 997 7 865 8 145 8 572 7 302canola kt 1 214 1 844 1 920 2 382 2 815 2 935canola kt 1 214 1 844 1 920 2 382 2 815 2 935chickpeas kt 313 443 487 379 485 797chickpeas kt 313 443 487 379 485 797field peas kt 268 238 356 434 304 302field peas kt 268 238 356 434 304 302l i kt 662 708 823 841 901 539lupins kt 662 708 823 841 901 539

t kt 1 502 1 160 1 162 1 142 1 734 1 469oats kt 1 502 1 160 1 162 1 142 1 734 1 469i i l k 450 363 545 685 580 525triticale kt 450 363 545 685 580 525h kwheat kt 13 569 21 420 21 834 27 891 29 515 24 124

Summer cropsSummer cropscottonseed s kt 188 466 547 1 269 1 527 1 485cottonseed s kt 188 466 547 1 269 1 527 1 485maize kt 387 376 328 351 422 421maize kt 387 376 328 351 422 421rice kt 18 61 197 726 955 991rice kt 18 61 197 726 955 991grain sorghum kt 3 790 2 692 1 508 2 068 2 343 2 035grain sorghum kt 3 790 2 692 1 508 2 068 2 343 2 035

b kt 35 80 60 47 86 87soybeans kt 35 80 60 47 86 87fl d ksunflower seed kt 73 55 41 44 47 50

other oilseeds a kt 56 34 41 40 37 39Total grains and oilseeds kt 29 683 37 935 37 713 46 444 50 324 43 102Total grains and oilseeds kt 29 683 37 935 37 713 46 444 50 324 43 102Industrial cropsIndustrial cropsCotton lint kt 133 329 387 898 1 080 1 050Cotton lint kt 133 329 387 898 1 080 1 050S ( t f hi ) kt 32 621 31 457 31 235 27 443 27 658 30 887Sugar cane (cut for crushing) kt 32 621 31 457 31 235 27 443 27 658 30 887Sugar (tonnes actual) kt 4 763 4 634 4 472 3 610 3 733 4 401g ( )Wine grapes kt 1 837 1 684 1 533 1 563 1 532 1 613Wine grapes kt 1 837 1 684 1 533 1 563 1 532 1 613

HorticultureHorticultureFr itFruit

l kt 265 295 264 234 271 290apples kt 265 295 264 234 271 290b k 207 270 302 241 280 310bananas kt 207 270 302 241 280 310

koranges kt 409 348 391 277 388 341gVegetablesVegetables

carrots kt 273 264 267 253 284 284carrots kt 273 264 267 253 284 284onions kt 254 284 260 281 274 278onions kt 254 284 260 281 274 278potatoes kt 1 400 1 179 1 278 1 217 1 265 1 265potatoes kt 1 400 1 179 1 278 1 217 1 265 1 265tomatoes kt 382 440 472 407 432 434tomatoes kt 382 440 472 407 432 434

Li estockLivestockl hSlaughteringsg g

Cattle and calves ’000 8 680 8 583 8 364 8 097 7 880 8 065Sheep ’000 11 158 10 501 7 333 5 341 5 180 6 400Sheep 000 11 158 10 501 7 333 5 341 5 180 6 400Lambs ’000 20 529 20 395 19 478 17 880 18 700 19 550Lambs 000 20 529 20 395 19 478 17 880 18 700 19 550Pigs ’000 5 217 4 499 4 561 4 643 4 708 4 785Pigs 000 5 217 4 499 4 561 4 643 4 708 4 785

LiLive exportspCattle exported live b ’000 708 845 871 728 530 500Cattle exported live b 000 708 845 871 728 530 500Sheep exported live b ’000 4 069 4 064 3 055 2 909 2 420 2 800Sheep exported live b 000 4 069 4 064 3 055 2 909 2 420 2 800Meat producedMeat producedB f d l kt 2 132 2 125 2 109 2 133 2 120 2 190Beef and veal c kt 2 132 2 125 2 109 2 133 2 120 2 190L b kt 428 416 413 391 413 430Lamb c kt 428 416 413 391 413 430M kt 243 220 162 123 120 148Mutton c kt 243 220 162 123 120 148Pi k 3 322 33 3 2 3 9 3 3Pig meat kt 377 322 331 342 349 353gPoultry meat c kt 835 866 874 1 056 1 062 1 085Poultry meat c kt 835 866 874 1 056 1 062 1 085

Total kt 4 016 3 950 3 888 4 046 4 064 4 206Total kt 4 016 3 950 3 888 4 046 4 064 4 206

Continued


Australian production

TABLE 12 Agricultural, fisheries and forestry commodity production Australia continued

unit 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 f 2012–13 funit 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13

Livestock productsLivestock products W l d kt 459 420 423 429 430 452Wool d kt 459 420 423 429 430 452Milk ML 9 223 9 388 9 023 9 102 9 460 9 600Milk e ML 9 223 9 388 9 023 9 102 9 460 9 600B k 128 148 128 122 120 120Butter g kt 128 148 128 122 120 120gCheese kt 361 325 349 339 352 364Casein kt 10 10 8 5 5 6Case t 0 0 8 5 5 6Skim milk powder h kt 164 212 190 222 226 220Skim milk powder h kt 164 212 190 222 226 220Whole milk powder kt 142 148 126 151 144 150Whole milk powder kt 142 148 126 151 144 150Buttermilk powder kt 13 15 13 12 11 12Buttermilk powder kt 13 15 13 12 11 12

Forestry – logs harvested iy gBroadleaved ’000 m3 13 211 12 485 11 144 11 448 10 418 11 080Broadleaved 000 m 13 211 12 485 11 144 11 448 10 418 11 080Coniferous ’000 m3 15 157 13 314 14 433 15 042 13 816 14 302Coniferous ’000 m3 15 157 13 314 14 433 15 042 13 816 14 302

T t l 3 28 368 25 799 25 577 26 490 24 234 25 382Total ’000 m3 28 368 25 799 25 577 26 490 24 234 25 382000 m

Fisheries jFisheries j Tuna kt 14 6 13 7 11 0 9 4 11 2 10 4Tuna kt 14.6 13.7 11.0 9.4 11.2 10.4S l id k 25 9 30 0 31 9 35 4 37 8 40 4Salmonids k kt 25.9 30.0 31.9 35.4 37.8 40.4Other fish kt 118.2 115.7 119.7 109.2 114.9 116.1Prawns kt 22.8 24.2 27.2 26.7 23.9 23.6Prawns kt 22.8 24.2 27.2 26.7 23.9 23.6Rock lobster l kt 14.3 12.1 10.1 9.8 9.8 10.0Rock lobster l kt 14.3 12.1 10.1 9.8 9.8 10.0Abalone kt 5 3 5 6 5 2 5 5 5 4 5 7Abalone kt 5.3 5.6 5.2 5.5 5.4 5.7Scallops kt 10 3 7 6 7 6 6 2 2 7 5 0Scallops kt 10.3 7.6 7.6 6.2 2.7 5.0Oysters kt 13 6 14 3 15 0 14 5 15 6 16 2Oysters kt 13.6 14.3 15.0 14.5 15.6 16.2Other molluscs kt 6 8 6 6 6 3 6 6 6 5 6 5Other molluscs kt 6.8 6.6 6.3 6.6 6.5 6.5Oth t kt 6 4 5 8 6 2 5 5 6 2 5 9Other crustaceans kt 6.4 5.8 6.2 5.5 6.2 5.9

a Linseed, safflower seed and peanuts. b Excludes animals exported for breeding purposes. c In carcass weight and includes carcass equivalent a Linseed, safflower seed and peanuts. b Excludes animals exported for breeding purposes. c In carcass weight and includes carcass equivalent of canned meats. d Greasy equivalent of shorn wool (includes crutching), dead and fellmongered wool and wool exported on skins.a Linseed, safflower seed and peanuts. b Excludes animals exported for breeding purposes. c In carcass weight and includes carcass equivalent of canned meats. d Greasy equivalent of shorn wool (includes crutching), dead and fellmongered wool and wool exported on skins.e Includes the whole milk equivalent of farm cream intake. f ABARES forecast. g Includes the butter equivalent of butteroil, butter concentrate,

a Linseed, safflower seed and peanuts. b Excludes animals exported for breeding purposes. c In carcass weight and includes carcass equivalent of canned meats. d Greasy equivalent of shorn wool (includes crutching), dead and fellmongered wool and wool exported on skins.e Includes the whole milk equivalent of farm cream intake. f ABARES forecast. g Includes the butter equivalent of butteroil, butter concentrate, ghee and dry butterfat. h Includes mixed skim and buttermilk powder. i Excludes logs harvested for firewood. j Liveweight. k Includes salmon

y q ( g), g pe Includes the whole milk equivalent of farm cream intake. f ABARES forecast. g Includes the butter equivalent of butteroil, butter concentrate, ghee and dry butterfat. h Includes mixed skim and buttermilk powder. i Excludes logs harvested for firewood. j Liveweight. k Includes salmon and trout production. l Includes Queensland bugs.

q g qghee and dry butterfat. h Includes mixed skim and buttermilk powder. i Excludes logs harvested for firewood. j Liveweight. k Includes salmon and trout production. l Includes Queensland bugs.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Australian Dairy Corporation; Australian Fisheries Management Authority; Department of Fi h i W A li D f P i I d i P k W d E i T i Fi h i Q l d D f

yand trout production. l Includes Queensland bugs.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Australian Dairy Corporation; Australian Fisheries Management Authority; Department of Fisheries, Western Australia; Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, Tasmania; Fisheries Queensland, Department of E l t E i D l t d I ti Fi h i Vi t i D t t f P i I d t i I d t & I t t N S th

Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Australian Dairy Corporation; Australian Fisheries Management Authority; Department of Fisheries, Western Australia; Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, Tasmania; Fisheries Queensland, Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation; Fisheries Victoria, Department of Primary Industries; Industry & Investment New South Wales Northern Territory Department of Regional Development Primary Industry Fisheries and Resources Primary Industries and Resources

Fisheries, Western Australia; Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, Tasmania; Fisheries Queensland, Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation; Fisheries Victoria, Department of Primary Industries; Industry & Investment New South Wales; Northern Territory Department of Regional Development, Primary Industry, Fisheries and Resources; Primary Industries and Resources, South Australia; Raw Cotton Marketing Advisory Committee; South Australian Research and Development Institute; State and Territory Forest

Employment, Economic Development and Innovation; Fisheries Victoria, Department of Primary Industries; Industry & Investment New South Wales; Northern Territory Department of Regional Development, Primary Industry, Fisheries and Resources; Primary Industries and Resources, South Australia; Raw Cotton Marketing Advisory Committee; South Australian Research and Development Institute; State and Territory Forest Services; various Australian forestry industries

Wales; Northern Territory Department of Regional Development, Primary Industry, Fisheries and Resources; Primary Industries and Resources, South Australia; Raw Cotton Marketing Advisory Committee; South Australian Research and Development Institute; State and Territory Forest Services; various Australian forestry industriesSouth Australia; Raw Cotton Marketing Advisory Committee; South Australian Research and Development Institute; State and Territory Forest Services; various Australian forestry industries


Value of production

TABLE 13 Gross value of farm and fisheries production Australia

2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 s 2011–12 f 2012–13 f2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $m

CropsCropsG i d il dGrains and oilseedsWinter cropsp

barley 2 244 1 850 1 356 1 684 1 560 1 309barley 2 244 1 850 1 356 1 684 1 560 1 309canola 659 1 011 840 1 295 1 387 1 316canola 659 1 011 840 1 295 1 387 1 316chickpeas 195 199 212 183 269 437chickpeas 195 199 212 183 269 437field peas 109 82 86 103 79 78field peas 109 82 86 103 79 78lupins 222 198 205 226 201 132lupins 222 198 205 226 201 132oats 423 251 186 218 338 266oats 423 251 186 218 338 266triticale 113 93 120 135 104 91triticale 113 93 120 135 104 91wheat 5 292 6 021 4 765 7 611 7 485 5 986wheat 5 292 6 021 4 765 7 611 7 485 5 986

Summer cropsSummer cropsmaize 100 106 88 103 109 100rice 7 34 90 174 248 253grain sorghum 977 553 296 449 380 305grain sorghum 977 553 296 449 380 305soybeans 19 44 33 26 46 43soybeans 19 44 33 26 46 43sunflower seed 59 38 29 30 30 29sunflower seed 59 38 29 30 30 29other oilseeds a 35 28 34 34 30 31other oilseeds a 35 28 34 34 30 31

Total grains and oilseeds 10 803 10 778 8 663 12 733 12 677 10 758g

Industrial cropsIndustrial cropsCotton lint and cottonseed b 254 693 828 2 818 2 621 2 386Cotton lint and cottonseed b 254 693 828 2 818 2 621 2 386S ( t f hi ) 861 1 021 1 382 1 036 1 145 1 098Sugar cane (cut for crushing) 861 1 021 1 382 1 036 1 145 1 098Wine grapes 1 446 887 709 646 690 758g p

Total industrial crops 2 560 2 601 2 919 4 499 4 456 4 242Total industrial crops 2 560 2 601 2 919 4 499 4 456 4 242

HorticultureTable and dried grapes 202 286 273 284 269 275Table and dried grapes 202 286 273 284 269 275Fruit and nuts (excl. grapes) 2 758 2 871 2 950 3 168 3 439 3 721Fruit and nuts (excl. grapes) 2 758 2 871 2 950 3 168 3 439 3 721Vegetables 3 363 3 012 3 023 3 370 3 606 3 908Vegetables 3 363 3 012 3 023 3 370 3 606 3 908Other horticulture 1 693 1 556 1 649 1 882 1 952 2 089Other horticulture 1 693 1 556 1 649 1 882 1 952 2 089

T l h i l 8 015 7 725 7 895 8 705 9 266 9 993Total horticulture 8 015 7 725 7 895 8 705 9 266 9 993

Other crops nei c 2 858 1 665 1 660 1 146 1 165 1 185Other crops nei c 2 858 1 665 1 660 1 146 1 165 1 185

T t l 24 237 22 769 21 137 27 082 27 565 26 179Total crops 24 237 22 769 21 137 27 082 27 565 26 179

ContinuedContinued


Value of production

TABLE 13 Gross value of farm and fisheries production Australia continued

2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 s 2011–12 f 2012–13 f2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $m

LivestockLivestockSl ht iSlaughteringsCattle and calves d 6 813 6 806 6 567 7 246 7 345 7 366Sheep e 400 428 499 484 399 505Sheep e 400 428 499 484 399 505Lambs eg 1 481 1 725 1 832 2 029 1 996 2 095Lambs eg 1 481 1 725 1 832 2 029 1 996 2 095Pigs 902 966 965 883 938 930Pigs 902 966 965 883 938 930Po ltr 1 637 1 862 1 785 2 077 2 033 2 047Poultry 1 637 1 862 1 785 2 077 2 033 2 047

Live exportsLive exportsCattle exported live h 541 646 701 660 620 610Cattle exported live h 541 646 701 660 620 610Sheep exported live i 286 339 297 346 332 390Sheep exported live i 286 339 297 346 332 390

Total livestock j 12 104 12 823 12 721 13 805 13 748 14 033Total livestock j 12 104 12 823 12 721 13 805 13 748 14 033

Livestock productsLivestock products l 2 309 1 806 1 928 2 673 2 872 2 666Wool k 2 309 1 806 1 928 2 673 2 872 2 666

Milk l 4 572 3 988 3 371 3 932 3 879 3 552Eggs 468 447 428 555 560 550Eggs 468 447 428 555 560 550Honey and beeswax 64 86 90 92 94 96Honey and beeswax 64 86 90 92 94 96

T l li k d 7 412 6 327 5 816 7 252 7 404 6 864Total livestock products 7 412 6 327 5 816 7 252 7 404 6 864

Total farm 43 752 41 918 39 675 48 139 48 717 47 076Total farm 43 752 41 918 39 675 48 139 48 717 47 076

Forestry products my pBroadleaved 947 936 847 860 787 873Coniferous 890 823 932 982 884 914Coniferous 890 823 932 982 884 914Total 1 837 1 759 1 779 1 842 1 671 1 788Total 1 837 1 759 1 779 1 842 1 671 1 788

Fisheries products nFisheries products nTuna 210 187 123 140 164 135Tuna 210 187 123 140 164 135Salmonids o 302 326 369 409 385 408Salmonids o 302 326 369 409 385 408Other fish q 431 463 461 419 448 443Other fish q 431 463 461 419 448 443Prawns 272 291 325 303 266 267Prawns 272 291 325 303 266 267Rock lobster 426 415 381 386 416 439Rock lobster r 426 415 381 386 416 439Ab l 189 190 180 185 181 201Abalone 189 190 180 185 181 201S ll 33 26 23 18 10 14Scallops 33 26 23 18 10 14Oysters 89 93 100 103 114 124yPearls t 114 90 104 120 114 115Pearls t 114 90 104 120 114 115Other molluscs u 52 49 32 44 44 44Other molluscs u 52 49 32 44 44 44Other crustaceans 63 66 76 67 76 73Other crustaceans 63 66 76 67 76 73

T l fi h 2 207 2 216 2 194 2 210 2 236 2 281Total fish 2 207 2 216 2 194 2 210 2 236 2 281

a Linseed safflower seed and peanuts b Value delivered to gin c Mainly fodder crops d Includes dairy cattle slaughtered e Excludes skin valuesa Linseed, safflower seed and peanuts. b Value delivered to gin. c Mainly fodder crops. d Includes dairy cattle slaughtered. e Excludes skin values. f ABARES forecast g Lamb saleyard indicator weight 18–22 kg h Includes animals exported for breeding purposes i Excludes animals exporteda Linseed, safflower seed and peanuts. b Value delivered to gin. c Mainly fodder crops. d Includes dairy cattle slaughtered. e Excludes skin values. f ABARES forecast. g Lamb saleyard indicator weight 18–22 kg. h Includes animals exported for breeding purposes. i Excludes animals exported for breeding purposes j Total livestock slaughterings includes livestock disposals k Shorn dead and fellmongered wool and wool exported on

a Linseed, safflower seed and peanuts. b Value delivered to gin. c Mainly fodder crops. d Includes dairy cattle slaughtered. e Excludes skin values. f ABARES forecast. g Lamb saleyard indicator weight 18–22 kg. h Includes animals exported for breeding purposes. i Excludes animals exported for breeding purposes. j Total livestock slaughterings includes livestock disposals. k Shorn, dead and fellmongered wool and wool exported on skins. l Milk intake by factories and valued at the farm gate. m Excludes logs harvested for firewood. n Value to fishermen of product landed in

f ABARES forecast. g Lamb saleyard indicator weight 18–22 kg. h Includes animals exported for breeding purposes. i Excludes animals exported for breeding purposes. j Total livestock slaughterings includes livestock disposals. k Shorn, dead and fellmongered wool and wool exported on skins. l Milk intake by factories and valued at the farm gate. m Excludes logs harvested for firewood. n Value to fishermen of product landed in Australia. o Includes salmon and trout production. q Includes an estimated value of aquaculture. r Includes Queensland bugs. s ABARES estimate.

for breeding purposes. j Total livestock slaughterings includes livestock disposals. k Shorn, dead and fellmongered wool and wool exported on skins. l Milk intake by factories and valued at the farm gate. m Excludes logs harvested for firewood. n Value to fishermen of product landed in Australia. o Includes salmon and trout production. q Includes an estimated value of aquaculture. r Includes Queensland bugs. s ABARES estimate. t Includes Northern Territory aquaculture production from 2009–10. u Also includes fish and aquaculture values not elsewhere included. nei Not

skins. l Milk intake by factories and valued at the farm gate. m Excludes logs harvested for firewood. n Value to fishermen of product landed in Australia. o Includes salmon and trout production. q Includes an estimated value of aquaculture. r Includes Queensland bugs. s ABARES estimate. t Includes Northern Territory aquaculture production from 2009–10. u Also includes fish and aquaculture values not elsewhere included. nei Not elsewhere included.

Australia. o Includes salmon and trout production. q Includes an estimated value of aquaculture. r Includes Queensland bugs. s ABARES estimate. t Includes Northern Territory aquaculture production from 2009–10. u Also includes fish and aquaculture values not elsewhere included. nei Not elsewhere included.Note: The gross value of production is the value placed on recorded production at the wholesale prices realised in the marketplace. The point of

t Includes Northern Territory aquaculture production from 2009 10. u Also includes fish and aquaculture values not elsewhere included. nei Not elsewhere included.Note: The gross value of production is the value placed on recorded production at the wholesale prices realised in the marketplace. The point of measurement can vary between commodities. Generally the marketplace is the metropolitan market in each state and territory. However, where Note: The gross value of production is the value placed on recorded production at the wholesale prices realised in the marketplace. The point of measurement can vary between commodities. Generally the marketplace is the metropolitan market in each state and territory. However, where commodities are consumed locally or where they become raw material for a secondary industry, these points are presumed to be the

k l d h l l l d

g p p p p p pmeasurement can vary between commodities. Generally the marketplace is the metropolitan market in each state and territory. However, where commodities are consumed locally or where they become raw material for a secondary industry, these points are presumed to be themarketplace. Prices used in these calculations exclude GST. S ABARES A li B f S i i

commodities are consumed locally or where they become raw material for a secondary industry, these points are presumed to be themarketplace. Prices used in these calculations exclude GST. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsmarketplace. Prices used in these calculations exclude GST. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics


Areas, stock

TABLE 14 Crop and forestry areas and livestock numbers Australia

unit 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 f 2012–13 funit 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13

Crop areasCrop areasGrains and oilseedsGrains and oilseedsWiWinter crops

barley ’000 ha 4 902 5 015 4 422 3 740 4 038 3 875ycanola ’000 ha 1 277 1 693 1 712 2 093 1 730 2 123canola 000 ha 1 277 1 693 1 712 2 093 1 730 2 123chickpeas ’000 ha 306 338 429 546 327 554chickpeas 000 ha 306 338 429 546 327 554field peas ’000 ha 293 300 285 292 244 280field peas 000 ha 293 300 285 292 244 280lupins ’000 ha 752 577 692 783 490 421lupins ’000 ha 752 577 692 783 490 421oats ’000 ha 1 238 870 850 832 1 003 919oats ’000 ha 1 238 870 850 832 1 003 919triticale ’000 ha 360 323 350 330 330 332triticale ’000 ha 360 323 350 330 330 332wheat ’000 ha 12 578 13 530 13 881 13 645 14 058 13 353wheat ’000 ha 12 578 13 530 13 881 13 645 14 058 13 353

SSummer cropspmaize ’000 ha 68 65 59 61 77 73maize 000 ha 68 65 59 61 77 73rice ’000 ha 2 7 19 75 109 110rice 000 ha 2 7 19 75 109 110grain sorghum ’000 ha 942 767 498 674 632 600grain sorghum 000 ha 942 767 498 674 632 600soybeans ’000 ha 15 42 31 19 38 40soybeans ’000 ha 15 42 31 19 38 40sunflower seed ’000 ha 48 52 27 29 40 42sunflower seed ’000 ha 48 52 27 29 40 42

th il d ’000 ha 16 22 16 17 18 17other oilseeds a ’000 ha 16 22 16 17 18 17

Total grains and oilseeds ’000 ha 23 204 24 084 23 793 24 112 24 148 23 673Total grains and oilseeds 000 ha 23 204 24 084 23 793 24 112 24 148 23 673

Industrial cropsIndustrial cropsCotton ’000 ha 63 164 208 590 600 525Cotton ’000 ha 63 164 208 590 600 525S b ’000 h 381 391 389 334 370 385Sugar cane b ’000 ha 381 391 389 334 370 385Winegrapes e ’000 ha 166 157 152 154 156 158g p

Livestock numbers cLivestock numbers cCattleCattle

beef million 24 78 25 29 24 01 26 21 27 56 28 75beef million 24.78 25.29 24.01 26.21 27.56 28.75dairy million 2 54 2 61 2 54 2 60 2 64 2 66dairy million 2.54 2.61 2.54 2.60 2.64 2.66

lk h d illi 6 68 60 60 62 6 milking herd d million 1.64 1.68 1.60 1.60 1.62 1.65g

total million 27.32 27.91 26.55 28.81 30.20 31.41total million 27.32 27.91 26.55 28.81 30.20 31.41Sheep million 76 9 72 7 68 1 74 3 77 6 81 0Sheep million 76.9 72.7 68.1 74.3 77.6 81.0Pigs million 2 41 2 30 2 29 2 34 2 39 2 43Pigs million 2.41 2.30 2.29 2.34 2.39 2.43

Forestry plantation areaForestry plantation areaBroadleaved ’000 ha 950 991 973 980 na naBroadleaved 000 ha 950 991 973 980 na naConiferous ’000 ha 1 014 1 020 1 024 1 025 na naConiferous 000 ha 1 014 1 020 1 024 1 025 na na

T l l i ’000 h 1 973 2 020 2 009 2 017Total plantation area g ’000 ha 1 973 2 020 2 009 2 017 na na

a Linseed and safflower seed b Cut for crushing c At 30 June d Cows in milk and dry e This figure is for grapes for wine only Prior to 2008–09a Linseed and safflower seed. b Cut for crushing. c At 30 June. d Cows in milk and dry. e This figure is for grapes for wine only. Prior to 2008–09 this figure includes grapes used for winemaking and other purposes such as drying and table f ABARES forecast g Includes areas wherea Linseed and safflower seed. b Cut for crushing. c At 30 June. d Cows in milk and dry. e This figure is for grapes for wine only. Prior to 2008–09 this figure includes grapes used for winemaking and other purposes such as drying and table. f ABARES forecast. g Includes areas where plantation type is unknown na Not available

a Linseed and safflower seed. b Cut for crushing. c At 30 June. d Cows in milk and dry. e This figure is for grapes for wine only. Prior to 2008–09 this figure includes grapes used for winemaking and other purposes such as drying and table. f ABARES forecast. g Includes areas where plantation type is unknown. na Not available.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

this figure includes grapes used for winemaking and other purposes such as drying and table. f ABARES forecast. g Includes areas where plantation type is unknown. na Not available.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics


Yields

TABLE 15 Average farm yields Australia

unit 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 f 2012–13 funit 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13CropsCropsGrains and oilseedsGrains and oilseedsWinter cropsWinter crops

b l t/h 1 46 1 59 1 78 2 18 2 12 1 88barley t/ha 1.46 1.59 1.78 2.18 2.12 1.88canola t/ha 0.95 1.09 1.12 1.14 1.63 1.38chickpeas t/ha 1.02 1.31 1.14 0.69 1.48 1.44pfield peas t/ha 0.91 0.79 1.25 1.49 1.25 1.08e d peas t/ a 0.9 0. 9 . 5 . 9 . 5 .08lupins t/ha 0.88 1.23 1.19 1.07 1.84 1.28lupins t/ha 0.88 1.23 1.19 1.07 1.84 1.28oats t/ha 1.21 1.33 1.37 1.37 1.73 1.60oats t/ha 1.21 1.33 1.37 1.37 1.73 1.60triticale t/ha 1.25 1.12 1.56 2.08 1.76 1.58triticale t/ha 1.25 1.12 1.56 2.08 1.76 1.58wheat t/ha 1.08 1.58 1.57 2.04 2.10 1.81wheat t/ha 1.08 1.58 1.57 2.04 2.10 1.81

Summer cropsSummer cropsmai e t/ha 5 69 5 82 5 56 5 75 5 48 5 76maize t/ha 5.69 5.82 5.56 5.75 5.48 5.76i t/h 8 15 8 46 10 39 9 68 8 75 9 01rice t/ha 8.15 8.46 10.39 9.68 8.75 9.01

h /hgrain sorghum t/ha 4.02 3.51 3.03 3.07 3.71 3.39g gsoybeans t/ha 2.34 1.89 1.90 2.47 2.26 2.19soybeans t/ha 2.34 1.89 1.90 2.47 2.26 2.19sunflower seed t/ha 1.51 1.07 1.54 1.51 1.17 1.18sunflower seed t/ha 1.51 1.07 1.54 1.51 1.17 1.18

Industrial cropsIndustrial cropsCotton (lint) t/ha 2 12 2 01 1 86 1 52 1 80 2 00Cotton (lint) t/ha 2.12 2.01 1.86 1.52 1.80 2.00S (f hi ) t/h 86 80 80 82 75 80Sugar cane (for crushing) t/ha 86 80 80 82 75 80Winegrapes t/ha 11.1 10.7 10.1 10.1 9.8 10.2g p

LivestockLivestockWool a kg/sheep 4 30 4 29 4 25 4 34 4 28 4 30Wool a kg/sheep 4.30 4.29 4.25 4.34 4.28 4.30Whole milk L/co 5 624 5 602 5 653 5 675 5 829 5 818Whole milk L/cow 5 624 5 602 5 653 5 675 5 829 5 818

a Shorn (including lambs) f ABARES forecasta Shorn (including lambs). f ABARES forecast.Sources ABARES Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Shorn (including lambs). f ABARES forecast.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Shorn (including lambs). f ABARES forecast.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics


Export volumes

TABLE 16 Volume of agricultural, fisheries and forestry exports Australia

unit 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 f 2012–13 funit 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13

FarmFarmG i d il dGrains and oilseedsWinter cropsp

barley a kt 4 051 3 898 4 234 4 625 6 426 4 678barley a t 05 3 898 3 6 5 6 6 6 8canola kt 519 973 1 238 1 453 2 044 2 077canola kt 519 973 1 238 1 453 2 044 2 077chickpeas kt 218 467 459 409 587 649chickpeas kt 218 467 459 409 587 649lupins kt 76 157 377 289 289 205lupins kt 76 157 377 289 289 205oats (unprepared) kt 115 196 216 127 154 169oats (unprepared) kt 115 196 216 127 154 169peas b kt 142 118 163 254 219 284peas b kt 142 118 163 254 219 284wheat c kt 7 408 13 410 13 725 18 431 21 200 21 000wheat c kt 7 408 13 410 13 725 18 431 21 200 21 000

SSummer cropstt d kt 18 37 106 268 566 459cottonseed kt 18 37 106 268 566 459

i k 104 106 54 174 513 527rice kt 104 106 54 174 513 527grain sorghum kt 251 1 368 487 553 1 049 862g gother oilseeds d kt 11 10 13 7 7 11other oilseeds d kt 11 10 13 7 7 11

Total grains and oilseeds kt 12 913 20 740 21 073 26 591 33 052 30 921Total grains and oilseeds kt 12 913 20 740 21 073 26 591 33 052 30 921

Industrial cropsIndustrial cropsRaw cotton e kt 266 260 395 505 956 1 066Raw cotton e kt 266 260 395 505 956 1 066Sugar kt 3 493 3 268 3 506 2 735 3 001 3 350Sugar kt 3 493 3 268 3 506 2 735 3 001 3 350Wine ML 709 750 777 727 707 720Wine ML 709 750 777 727 707 720

Meat and live animals for slaughter gBeef and veal gh kt 930 968 899 937 955 970Beef and veal gh kt 930 968 899 937 955 970Live cattle i ’000 708 845 871 728 530 500Live cattle i 000 708 845 871 728 530 500Lamb g kt 163 156 157 157 172 180Lamb g kt 163 156 157 157 172 180Live sheep i ’000 4 069 4 064 3 055 2 909 2 420 2 800Live sheep i ’000 4 069 4 064 3 055 2 909 2 420 2 800M tt kt 158 146 111 86 88 106Mutton g kt 158 146 111 86 88 106Pig meat g kt 39 32 30 31 30 32g gPoultry meat g kt 30 37 28 31 39 40Poultry meat g kt 30 37 28 31 39 40

W lWool G k 343 314 308 335 307 315Greasy js kt 343 314 308 335 307 315y jSemi-processed kt (gr. eq.) 67 62 49 44 39 38Semi processed kt (gr. eq.) 67 62 49 44 39 38Skins kt (gr. eq.) 73 69 70 65 64 68Skins kt (gr. eq.) 73 69 70 65 64 68

T l k ( ) 483 445 428 444 410 420Total js kt (gr. eq.) 483 445 428 444 410 420

Dairy productsDairy productsButter k kt 57 70 74 56 44 50Butter k kt 57 70 74 56 44 50Cheese kt 203 146 168 163 168 174Cheese kt 203 146 168 163 168 174C i kt 9 8 10 5 5 6Casein kt 9 8 10 5 5 6Ski ilk d k 123 162 126 156 140 149Skim milk powder kt 123 162 126 156 140 149

h l lk d kWhole milk powder kt 82 116 91 108 103 110p

ContinuedContinued


Export volumes

TABLE 16 Volume of agricultural, fisheries and forestry exports Australia continued

unit 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 f 2012–13 funit 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13

Forest productsForest productsS d 3 338 355 387 348 277 252Sawnwood ’000 m3 338 355 387 348 277 252

3Wood-based panels ’000 m3 274 345 244 216 277 197p 000Paper and paperboard kt 790 769 890 1 029 1 156 1 113Paper and paperboard kt 790 769 890 1 029 1 156 1 113Woodchips kt 6 166 5 255 4 818 5 064 4 340 4 661Woodchips kt 6 166 5 255 4 818 5 064 4 340 4 661

Fi h i d tFisheries productsTuna kt 12.6 11.5 9.5 7.8 9.3 8.9Tuna kt 12.6 11.5 9.5 7.8 9.3 8.9Other fish kt 9.8 14.2 11.2 14.1 12.5 12.7Other fish kt 9.8 14.2 11.2 14.1 12.5 12.7Prawns lPrawns l

headless kt 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5headless kt 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5whole kt 3.9 4.0 3.8 4.8 4.2 4.1whole kt 3.9 4.0 3.8 4.8 4.2 4.1

Rock lobsterRock lobstertails kt 1 0 0 8 0 6 0 4 0 5 0 5tails kt 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5whole kt 8 1 8 4 7 0 6 4 6 2 6 2whole kt 8.1 8.4 7.0 6.4 6.2 6.2

AbaloneAbalonefresh chilled or frozen kt 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 0 2 1fresh, chilled or frozen kt 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.1prepared or preserved kt 1 4 1 2 1 4 1 4 1 2 1 3prepared or preserved kt 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.3

S ll kt 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 6 0 5 0 7Scallops m kt 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.7

a Includes the grain equivalent of malt b Includes field peas and cowpeas c Includes the wheat equivalent of flour d Includes soybeans linseeda Includes the grain equivalent of malt. b Includes field peas and cowpeas. c Includes the wheat equivalent of flour. d Includes soybeans, linseed, sunflower seed, safflower seed and peanuts Excludes meals and oils e Excludes cotton waste and linters f ABARES forecast g In shipped weighta Includes the grain equivalent of malt. b Includes field peas and cowpeas. c Includes the wheat equivalent of flour. d Includes soybeans, linseed, sunflower seed, safflower seed and peanuts. Excludes meals and oils. e Excludes cotton waste and linters. f ABARES forecast. g In shipped weight. Fresh, chilled or frozen. h Includes meat loaf. i Excludes breeding stock. j ABS recorded trade data adjusted for changes in stock levels held

a Includes the grain equivalent of malt. b Includes field peas and cowpeas. c Includes the wheat equivalent of flour. d Includes soybeans, linseed, sunflower seed, safflower seed and peanuts. Excludes meals and oils. e Excludes cotton waste and linters. f ABARES forecast. g In shipped weight. Fresh, chilled or frozen. h Includes meat loaf. i Excludes breeding stock. j ABS recorded trade data adjusted for changes in stock levels held overseas by Wool International. k Includes ghee, dry butterfat, butter concentrate and butteroil, and dairy spreads, all expressed as butter.

sunflower seed, safflower seed and peanuts. Excludes meals and oils. e Excludes cotton waste and linters. f ABARES forecast. g In shipped weight. Fresh, chilled or frozen. h Includes meat loaf. i Excludes breeding stock. j ABS recorded trade data adjusted for changes in stock levels held overseas by Wool International. k Includes ghee, dry butterfat, butter concentrate and butteroil, and dairy spreads, all expressed as butter. l Excludes volume of other prawn products. m Includes crumbed scallops. na Not available.

Fresh, chilled or frozen. h Includes meat loaf. i Excludes breeding stock. j ABS recorded trade data adjusted for changes in stock levels held overseas by Wool International. k Includes ghee, dry butterfat, butter concentrate and butteroil, and dairy spreads, all expressed as butter. l Excludes volume of other prawn products. m Includes crumbed scallops. na Not available.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics, International Trade, Australia, cat. no. 5465.0, Canberra; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and

overseas by Wool International. k Includes ghee, dry butterfat, butter concentrate and butteroil, and dairy spreads, all expressed as butter. l Excludes volume of other prawn products. m Includes crumbed scallops. na Not available.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics, International Trade, Australia, cat. no. 5465.0, Canberra; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry; Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade

l Excludes volume of other prawn products. m Includes crumbed scallops. na Not available.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics, International Trade, Australia, cat. no. 5465.0, Canberra; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry; Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade

; , , , , ; p g ,Forestry; Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade


Export values

TABLE 17 Value of agricultural, fisheries and forestry exports (fob) Australia

2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 f 2012–13 f2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $m

FarmFarmGrains and oilseedsGrains and oilseedsWinter cropsWinter crops

barley a 1 496 1 321 1 093 1 295 1 827 1 217barley a 1 496 1 321 1 093 1 295 1 827 1 217canola 303 595 583 855 1 156 1 051canola 303 595 583 855 1 156 1 051chickpeas 139 275 255 213 334 377chickpeas 139 275 255 213 334 377l i 31 61 115 89 90 59lupins 31 61 115 89 90 59

t 37 64 53 37 45 45oats 37 64 53 37 45 45peas b 61 62 60 85 84 107pwheat c 2 990 5 028 3 692 5 516 5 922 5 621wheat c 2 990 5 028 3 692 5 516 5 922 5 621

Summer cropsSummer cropscottonseed 8 19 46 85 169 125cottonseed 8 19 46 85 169 125rice 110 143 59 151 422 403rice 110 143 59 151 422 403grain sorghum 76 405 116 146 286 247grain sorghum 76 405 116 146 286 247

h il d d 27 27 24 14 12 19other oilseeds d 27 27 24 14 12 19

Total grains and oilseeds 5 278 8 001 6 094 8 485 10 348 9 272Total grains and oilseeds 5 278 8 001 6 094 8 485 10 348 9 272

Industrial cropsIndustrial cropsRa cotton 466 500 755 1 367 2 555 2 293Raw cotton e 466 500 755 1 367 2 555 2 293S 1 006 1 338 1 887 1 436 1 681 1 513Sugar 1 006 1 338 1 887 1 436 1 681 1 513gWine 2 683 2 428 2 164 1 957 1 840 1 884Total industrial crops 4 155 4 266 4 805 4 760 6 076 5 690Total industrial crops 4 155 4 266 4 805 4 760 6 076 5 690HorticultureHorticultureFruit 606 692 593 463 485 432Fruit 606 692 593 463 485 432Tree nuts 177 229 198 207 213 273Tree nuts 177 229 198 207 213 273V t bl 375 437 497 561 568 431Vegetables 375 437 497 561 568 431Nursery 28 26 20 17 14 19y

Total horticulture 1 186 1 384 1 309 1 248 1 280 1 155Total horticulture 1 186 1 384 1 309 1 248 1 280 1 155Other crops 2 451 3 349 3 023 3 096 3 328 3 357Other crops 2 451 3 349 3 023 3 096 3 328 3 357Total crops 13 070 17 001 15 231 17 589 21 033 19 474p 13 070 17 001 15 231 17 589 21 033 19 474

Meat and live animals for slaughterMeat and live animals for slaughterB f d l 4 190 4 857 3 953 4 328 4 450 4 470Beef and veal 4 190 4 857 3 953 4 328 4 450 4 470Li l 446 538 550 499 380 360Live cattle g 446 538 550 499 380 360Lamb 803 925 916 1 026 1 048 1 116Live sheep g 286 339 297 346 332 390Live sheep g 286 339 297 346 332 390Mutton 443 482 433 404 357 442Mutton 443 482 433 404 357 442Pig meat 128 124 109 106 100 107Pig meat 128 124 109 106 100 107Poultry meat 32 43 36 38 47 48Poultry meat 32 43 36 38 47 48

Total 6 329 7 308 6 293 6 747 6 713 6 932Total 6 329 7 308 6 293 6 747 6 713 6 932WoolWool G h 2 115 1 729 1 776 2 371 2 318 2 105Greasy h 2 115 1 729 1 776 2 371 2 318 2 105S i d 362 281 238 251 256 221Semi-processed 362 281 238 251 256 221pSkins 319 312 291 426 430 371Total h 2 796 2 322 2 306 3 048 3 005 2 697Total h 2 796 2 322 2 306 3 048 3 005 2 697

ContinuedContinued


Export values

TABLE 17 Value of agricultural, fisheries and forestry exports (fob) Australia continued

2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 f 2012–13 f2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11 2011 12 2012 13$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $m

Dairy productsDairy productsButter 195 232 211 252 189 185Butter 195 232 211 252 189 185Cheese 968 796 715 731 789 776Cheese 968 796 715 731 789 776Casein 125 107 88 53 55 53Casein 125 107 88 53 55 53Ski ilk d 533 553 358 505 471 428Skim milk powder 533 553 358 505 471 428Wh l ilk d 392 475 296 402 376 368Whole milk powder 392 475 296 402 376 368O h d i d 551 518 419 402 411 386Other dairy products 551 518 419 402 411 386Total 2 764 2 682 2 088 2 344 2 291 2 195Total 2 764 2 682 2 088 2 344 2 291 2 195Other livestock exports 2 611 2 836 2 632 2 678 2 992 3 126Other livestock exports 2 611 2 836 2 632 2 678 2 992 3 126

Total livestock exports 14 500 15 147 13 318 14 817 15 002 14 951Total livestock exports 14 500 15 147 13 318 14 817 15 002 14 951T t l f t 27 570 32 148 28 550 32 406 36 034 34 425Total farm exports 27 570 32 148 28 550 32 406 36 034 34 425

Forest productsForest productsSawnwood 120 125 125 115 90 74Sawnwood 120 125 125 115 90 74Wood-based panels 109 101 88 98 89 82Wood-based panels 109 101 88 98 89 82Paper and paperboard 635 606 649 747 767 800Paper and paperboard 635 606 649 747 767 800Woodchips 1 072 997 856 884 772 826Woodchips 1 072 997 856 884 772 826O hOther 535 514 543 629 631 646

Total forest products 2 471 2 343 2 261 2 474 2 349 2 429Total forest products 2 471 2 343 2 261 2 474 2 349 2 429

Fi h i dFisheries productspTuna 206 177 118 131 168 139Tuna 06 8 3 68 39Other fish 119 157 140 156 134 138Other fish 119 157 140 156 134 138Prawns iPrawns i

headless 6 8 5 4 4 4headless 6 8 5 4 4 4whole 56 71 53 64 49 50whole 56 71 53 64 49 50

Rock lobsterRock lobstertails 63 53 35 24 30 31tails 63 53 35 24 30 31whole 333 405 363 341 363 380whole 333 405 363 341 363 380

AbaloneAbalonefresh chilled or frozen 124 119 133 120 118 128fresh, chilled or frozen 124 119 133 120 118 128prepared or preserved 93 89 83 92 83 82prepared or preserved 93 89 83 92 83 82

Scallops j 28 33 30 15 18 20Scallops j 28 33 30 15 18 20P l 264 366 244 241 229 231Pearls 264 366 244 241 229 231O h fi h i d 49 52 43 60 56 66Other fisheries products 49 52 43 60 56 66

Total fisheries products 1 342 1 529 1 247 1 249 1 251 1 270Total fisheries products 1 342 1 529 1 247 1 249 1 251 1 270

T l l 31 384 36 020 32 057 36 129 39 634 38 123Total rural exports k 31 384 36 020 32 057 36 129 39 634 38 123p

a Includes the grain equivalent of malt. b Field peas and cowpeas. c Includes the wheat equivalent of flour. d Includes soybeans, linseed, a Includes the grain equivalent of malt. b Field peas and cowpeas. c Includes the wheat equivalent of flour. d Includes soybeans, linseed, sunflower seed, safflower seed and peanuts. Excludes meals and oils. e Excludes cotton waste and linters. f ABARES forecast. g Excludes a Includes the grain equivalent of malt. b Field peas and cowpeas. c Includes the wheat equivalent of flour. d Includes soybeans, linseed, sunflower seed, safflower seed and peanuts. Excludes meals and oils. e Excludes cotton waste and linters. f ABARES forecast. g Excludes breeding stock. h On a balance of payments basis. ABS recorded trade data adjusted for changes in stock levels held overseas by Wool

g q p p q ysunflower seed, safflower seed and peanuts. Excludes meals and oils. e Excludes cotton waste and linters. f ABARES forecast. g Excludes breeding stock. h On a balance of payments basis. ABS recorded trade data adjusted for changes in stock levels held overseas by Wool International. i Other prawn products included in other fisheries products. j Includes crumbed scallops. k Derived from farm, forest and fi h i d

breeding stock. h On a balance of payments basis. ABS recorded trade data adjusted for changes in stock levels held overseas by Wool International. i Other prawn products included in other fisheries products. j Includes crumbed scallops. k Derived from farm, forest and fisheries products.S ABARES A t li B f St ti ti I t ti l T d A t li t 5465 0 C b

International. i Other prawn products included in other fisheries products. j Includes crumbed scallops. k Derived from farm, forest and fisheries products.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics, International Trade, Australia, cat. no. 5465.0, Canberrafisheries products.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics, International Trade, Australia, cat. no. 5465.0, Canberra


Forest exports

TABLE 18 Volume of forest products exports Australia

unit 2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11

QuantityQuantityd d 3Roundwood ’000 m3 864 1 171 1 045 986 1 377 1 638000 m

Sawnwood aSawnwood aConiferous roughsawn ’000 m3 226 317 258 283 322 265Coniferous roughsawn ’000 m3 226 317 258 283 322 265Coniferous dressed ’000 3 23 49 23 18 13 13Coniferous dressed ’000 m3 23 49 23 18 13 13B dl d h 3 31 36 40 40 37 40Broadleaved roughsawn ’000 m3 31 36 40 40 37 40Broadleaved dressed ’000 m3 12 13 16 13 16 29000 mTotal ’000 m3 293 416 338 355 387 348Total ’000 m3 293 416 338 355 387 348

Railway sleepers ’000 m3 9 11 11 9 9 8Railway sleepers 000 mWood-based panelsWood based panels

Veneers ’000 m3 3 4 35 86 90 119Veneers ’000 m3 3 4 35 86 90 119Plywood ’000 3 4 13 15 53 24 7Plywood ’000 m3 4 13 15 53 24 7P i l b d 3 14 18 6 17 9 6Particleboard ’000 m3 14 18 6 17 9 6000 mHardboard b ’000 m3 7 4 0 2 1 2Hardboard b 000 m 0Medium density fibreboard ’000 m3 352 260 204 181 118 78Medium density fibreboard 000 m 352 260 204 181 118 78Softboard and other fibreboards ’000 m3 11 10 14 8 2 5Softboard and other fibreboards ’000 m3 11 10 14 8 2 5

Total ’000 m3 391 309 274 345 244 216ota 000 mPaper and paperboardPaper and paperboard

N i t kt 0 0 5 2 6 19Newsprint kt 0 0 5 2 6 19kPrinting and writing kt 147 132 119 112 146 84g g

Household and sanitary kt 32 32 37 38 31 39Household and sanitary kt 32 32 37 38 31 39Packaging and industrial kt 632 640 630 617 708 887Packaging and industrial kt 632 640 630 617 708 887

l k 811 805 790 769 890 1 029Total kt 811 805 790 769 890 1 029

Recovered paper kt 907 1 060 1 286 1 216 1 444 1 323Recovered paper kt 907 1 060 1 286 1 216 1 444 1 323Pulp kt 6 16 21 22 18 31Pulp kt 6 16 21 22 18 31W d h k 5 363 5 952 6 166 5 255 4 818 5 064Woodchips cd kt 5 363 5 952 6 166 5 255 4 818 5 064p

a Excludes railway sleepers b Uncoated hardboard confidential from January 2007 c Includes particles d Bone dry tonnesa Excludes railway sleepers. b Uncoated hardboard confidential from January 2007. c Includes particles. d Bone dry tonnes. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasiaa Excludes railway sleepers. b Uncoated hardboard confidential from January 2007. c Includes particles. d Bone dry tonnes. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasiaa Excludes railway sleepers. b Uncoated hardboard confidential from January 2007. c Includes particles. d Bone dry tonnes. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasiaa Excludes railway sleepers. b Uncoated hardboard confidential from January 2007. c Includes particles. d Bone dry tonnes. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasia


Forest exports

TABLE 19 Value of forest products exports (fob) Australia

2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $m

V lValueR d d 82 117 105 101 138 198Roundwood 82 117 105 101 138 198Sawnwood

Coniferous roughsawn 63 81 63 70 76 67Coniferous roughsawn Coniferous dressed 15 18 11 9 7 5Coniferous dressed 15 18 11 9 7 5Broadleaved roughsawn 31 35 38 38 33 35Broadleaved roughsawn 31 35 38 38 33 35Broadleaved dressed 12 11 8 8 9 8Broadleaved dressed 12 11 8 8 9 8

l 121 145 120 125 125 115Total 121 145 120 125 125 115

Railway sleepers 4 5 3 4 2 3Railway sleepers 4 5 3 4 2 3Miscellaneous forest products 69 63 56 51 59 65Miscellaneous forest products 69 63 56 51 59 65Wood based panelsWood-based panels

Veneers 7 6 19 36 44 52Veneers 7 6 19 36 44 52Pl d 5 8 9 4 3 2Plywood 5 8 9 4 3 2

6 6 4 7 3 2Particleboard 6 6 4 7 3 2Hardboard a 5 3 0 1 1 2Hardboard aMedium density fibreboard b 121 97 76 52 36 39Medium density fibreboard b 121 97 76 52 36 39Softboard and other fibreboards 10 6 2 1 1 1Softboard and other fibreboards 10 6 2 1 1 1

T t l 153 126 109 101 88 98Total 153 126 109 101 88 98

Paper and paperboardPaper and paperboardNewsprint 0 0 3 2 6 13Newsprint 0 0 3 2 6 13Printing and writing 147 149 133 128 143 88Printing and writing 147 149 133 128 143 88Household and sanitary 98 102 106 111 97 94Household and sanitary 98 102 106 111 97 94Packaging and industrial 356 400 395 364 404 552Packaging and industrial 356 400 395 364 404 552

Total 601 650 635 606 649 747Total 60 650 635 606 6 9

Paper manufactures 125 112 103 106 102 112Paper manufactures 125 112 103 106 102 112Recovered paper 140 175 252 235 228 240Recovered paper 140 175 252 235 228 240P l 5 12 15 18 13 11Pulp 5 12 15 18 13 11

839 950 1 072 997 856 884Woodchips 839 950 1 072 997 856 884p

Total 2 140 2 355 2 471 2 343 2 261 2 474Total 2 140 2 355 2 471 2 343 2 261 2 474

a Uncoated hardboard confidential from January 2007. b Some categories of medium density fibreboard are confidential.a Uncoated hardboard confidential from January 2007. b Some categories of medium density fibreboard are confidential.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasiaa Uncoated hardboard confidential from January 2007. b Some categories of medium density fibreboard are confidential.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasiaa Uncoated hardboard confidential from January 2007. b Some categories of medium density fibreboard are confidential.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasiaa Uncoated hardboard confidential from January 2007. b Some categories of medium density fibreboard are confidential.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasia


Forest imports

TABLE 20 Volume of forest products imports Australia

unit 2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11

QuantityQuantityR d d 3 0 6 5 0 0 7 1 4 0 9 0 6Roundwood ’000 m3 0.6 5.0 0.7 1.4 0.9 0.6Sawnwood a

Coniferous roughsawn ’000 m3 301.4 289.2 340.2 255.6 292.6 290.1Coniferous roughsawn 000 m 301.4 289.2 340.2 255.6 292.6 290.1Coniferous dressed ’000 m3 239 3 193 9 321 2 278 8 367 3 468 2Coniferous dressed ’000 m3 239.3 193.9 321.2 278.8 367.3 468.2Broadleaved roughsawn ’000 3 70 5 67 4 61 5 52 2 44 1 43 8Broadleaved roughsawn ’000 m3 70.5 67.4 61.5 52.2 44.1 43.8B dl d d d 3 60 4 60 1 60 9 41 7 44 1 44 2Broadleaved dressed ’000 m3 60.4 60.1 60.9 41.7 44.1 44.2

Total ’000 m3 671 5 610 7 783 9 628 4 748 1 846 3Total ’000 m3 671.5 610.7 783.9 628.4 748.1 846.3

W d b d lWood-based panelsVeneers ’000 m3 23.7 29.0 31.5 21.4 15.4 17.4000 mPlywood ’000 m3 204.8 244.0 236.6 199.1 227.7 277.6Plywood 000 m 204.8 244.0 236.6 199.1 227.7 277.6Particleboard ’000 m3 36 8 77 5 99 6 68 7 64 2 71 6Particleboard ’000 m3 36.8 77.5 99.6 68.7 64.2 71.6Hardboard ’000 3 30 2 38 4 32 1 23 5 33 0 48 5Hardboard ’000 m3 30.2 38.4 32.1 23.5 33.0 48.5M di d i fib b d 3 51 9 26 5 68 8 88 3 69 9 58 0Medium density fibreboard ’000 m3 51.9 26.5 68.8 88.3 69.9 58.0Softboard and other fibreboards ’000 m3 14.3 14.2 14.3 10.6 6.2 6.5000 mTotal ’000 3 361 7 429 5 482 8 411 7 416 4 479 6Total ’000 m3 361.7 429.5 482.8 411.7 416.4 479.6

Paper and paperboardPaper and paperboardNewsprint kt 324.5 262.5 227.6 197.6 190.6 221.5Newsprint kt 324.5 262.5 227.6 197.6 190.6 221.5Printing and writing kt 1 140.1 1 173.5 1 235.3 1 122.1 1 167.4 1 237.0Printing and writing kt 1 140.1 1 173.5 1 235.3 1 122.1 1 167.4 1 237.0Household and sanitary kt 87 9 101 8 81 1 82 0 101 1 113 8Household and sanitary kt 87.9 101.8 81.1 82.0 101.1 113.8Packaging and industrial kt 190 8 258 4 303 1 254 0 285 3 313 8Packaging and industrial kt 190.8 258.4 303.1 254.0 285.3 313.8

Total kt 1 743.4 1 796.3 1 847.1 1 655.7 1 744.4 1 886.1Total kt 1 743.4 1 796.3 1 847.1 1 655.7 1 744.4 1 886.1

Recovered paper kt 7 4 9 6 10 2 3 0 3 4 2 0Recovered paper kt 7.4 9.6 10.2 3.0 3.4 2.0P l kt 348 0 359 0 388 7 344 7 265 0 233 2Pulp kt 348.0 359.0 388.7 344.7 265.0 233.2W d hi k 0 9 0 8 0 7 0 7 0 7 1 2Woodchips kt 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.2

a Excludes railway sleepers. a Excludes railway sleepers. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasiaa Excludes railway sleepers. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasiaa Excludes railway sleepers. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasiag


Forest imports

TABLE 21 Value of forest products imports Australia

2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $m

V lValueR d d 0 1 1 1 0 1Roundwood 0 1 1 1 0 1Sawnwood

Coniferous roughsawn 150 148 186 134 140 135Coniferous roughsawn 150 148 186 134 140 135Coniferous dressed 150 143 191 168 200 248Coniferous dressed 150 143 191 168 200 248Broadleaved roughsawn 65 67 59 51 41 41Broadleaved roughsawn 65 67 59 51 41 41Broadleaved dressed 53 60 56 53 48 49Broadleaved dressed 53 60 56 53 48 49

lTotal 419 418 492 405 429 473

Miscellaneous forest products 528 567 583 651 603 682Miscellaneous forest products 528 567 583 651 603 682Wood-based panelsWood-based panels

Veneers 25 32 33 28 22 21Veneers 25 32 33 28 22 21Plywood 134 168 153 145 138 170Plywood 134 168 153 145 138 170P i l b d 14 26 34 27 20 21Particleboard 14 26 34 27 20 21Hardboard 27 30 28 26 30 40Medium density fibreboard 22 14 33 41 37 34Medium density fibreboard 22 14 33 41 37 34Softboard and other fibreboards 7 7 3 4 3 3Softboard and other fibreboards 7 7 3 4 3 3

Total 228 276 284 271 250 289Total 228 276 284 271 250 289

Paper and paperboardPaper and paperboardNewsprint 267 224 185 173 158 176Newsprint 267 224 185 173 158 176Printing and writing 1 438 1 453 1 456 1 468 1 355 1 347Printing and writing 1 438 1 453 1 456 1 468 1 355 1 347Household and sanitary 152 177 137 154 164 185Household and sanitary 152 177 137 154 164 185Packaging and industrial 330 416 470 481 499 515Packaging and industrial 330 416 470 481 499 515

Total 2 187 2 270 2 248 2 276 2 175 2 223Paper manufactures a 426 470 513 590 563 557Paper manufactures a 426 470 513 590 563 557Recovered paper 1 2 2 1 1 0Recovered paper 1 2 2 1 1 0Pulp 225 265 285 263 178 180Pulp 225 265 285 263 178 180W d hi 2 1 2 2 1 2Woodchips 2 1 2 2 1 2

Total 4 017 4 271 4 412 4 459 4 200 4 407Total 4 017 4 271 4 412 4 459 4 200 4 407

a Includes other paper articles that have had some further processing. 0 used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.a Includes other paper articles that have had some further processing. 0 used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasiaa Includes other paper articles that have had some further processing. 0 used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasiaa Includes other paper articles that have had some further processing. 0 used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasiaa Includes other paper articles that have had some further processing. 0 used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasia


Fisheries exports

TABLE 22 Volume of fisheries products exports Australia

2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–112005 06 2006 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11kt kt kt kt kt ktkt kt kt kt kt kt

EdibleEdibleFishFishLive na na na na na naLive na na na na na naFresh chilled or frozenFresh, chilled or frozen

WholeWhole Tuna a 11 11 12 11 9 8 Tuna a 11 11 12 11 9 8Oth 7 7 6 11 8 11 Other 7 7 6 11 8 11

F llFillets 2 2 1 0 1 1Prepared and preserved 1 1 2 2 1 1p pDried, salted and smoked 0 0 0 0 0 0Dried, salted and smoked 0 0 0 0 0 0Other fish products 1 1 1 1 1 1Other fish products 1 1 1 1 1 1

T t l fi h b 23 23 22 26 21 22Total fish b 23 23 22 26 21 22

Crustaceans and molluscsCrustaceans and molluscsRock lobster 12 10 9 10 8 7Rock lobster 12 10 9 10 8 7Prawns 9 6 5 5 5 6Prawns 9 6 5 5 5 6Abalone 4 4 4 3 4 3Abalone 4 4 4 3 4 3S ll 1 1 1 1 1 1Scallops 1 1 1 1 1 1OOysters 0 0 0 0 0 0yCrabs 2 1 1 1 1 1Other 1 1 1 1 1 1Other 1 1 1 1 1 1Total 29 25 22 21 19 20Total 29 25 22 21 19 20

Total edible b 52 48 44 47 40 42Total edible b 52 48 44 47 40 42

a Exports of tuna landed in Australia. b Excludes live tonnage. na Not available. 0 is used to denote nil or less than 500 tonnes.a Exports of tuna landed in Australia. b Excludes live tonnage. na Not available. 0 is used to denote nil or less than 500 tonnes.Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Exports of tuna landed in Australia. b Excludes live tonnage. na Not available. 0 is used to denote nil or less than 500 tonnes.Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Exports of tuna landed in Australia. b Excludes live tonnage. na Not available. 0 is used to denote nil or less than 500 tonnes.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics


Fisheries exports

TABLE 23 Value of fisheries products exports (fob) Australia

2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–112005 06 2006 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $m

EdibleEdibleFishFishLive 40 41 43 46 40 33Live 40 41 43 46 40 33Fresh chilled or frozenFresh, chilled or frozen

WholeWhole Tuna a 177 160 202 175 117 130 Tuna a 177 160 202 175 117 130Oth 31 34 37 71 57 82 Other 31 34 37 71 57 82

F llFillets 15 13 6 5 10 10Prepared and preserved 7 6 13 10 6 5p pDried, salted and smoked 14 15 17 17 13 19Dried, salted and smoked 14 15 17 17 13 19Other fish products 12 10 8 9 15 8Other fish products 12 10 8 9 15 8

T l fi h 295 280 325 334 258 287Total fish b 295 280 325 334 258 287

Crustaceans and molluscsCrustaceans and molluscsRock lobster 489 463 401 462 400 369Rock lobster 489 463 401 462 400 369Prawns 134 94 69 82 61 77Prawns 134 94 69 82 61 77Ab l 246 246 217 208 216 212Abalone 246 246 217 208 216 212S ll 39 35 28 33 30 15Scallops 39 35 28 33 30 15pOysters 2 2 2 3 3 4yCrabs 18 17 16 16 14 13Crabs 18 17 16 16 14 13Other 15 19 8 6 5 12Other 15 19 8 6 5 12

Total 943 878 741 811 729 704Total 943 878 741 811 729 704

Total edible b 1 237 1 158 1 065 1 145 988 991Total edible b 1 237 1 158 1 065 1 145 988 991

Non-edibleMarine fats and oils 4 12 5 5 5 5Marine fats and oils 4 12 5 5 5 5Fish meal 9 5 1 1 2 2Fish meal 9 5 1 1 2 2Pearls c 290 314 264 366 244 241Pearls c 290 314 264 366 244 241Ornamental fish 1 2 2 3 3 2Ornamental fish 1 2 2 3 3 2Other non edible 6 5 4 8 5 7Other non-edible 6 5 4 8 5 7

Total non-edible 310 336 276 384 259 258Total non edible 310 336 276 384 259 258

T t l fi h i d t b 1 547 1 494 1 342 1 529 1 247 1 249Total fisheries products b 1 547 1 494 1 342 1 529 1 247 1 249

a Exports of tuna landed in Australia. b Includes live value. c Includes items temporarily exported and re-imported.a Exports of tuna landed in Australia. b Includes live value. c Includes items temporarily exported and re-imported.Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Exports of tuna landed in Australia. b Includes live value. c Includes items temporarily exported and re-imported.Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Exports of tuna landed in Australia. b Includes live value. c Includes items temporarily exported and re imported.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics


Fisheries imports

TABLE 24 Volume of fisheries products imports Australia

2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–112005 06 2006 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11kt kt kt kt kt ktkt kt kt kt kt kt

EdibleEdibleFishFishLive fish na na na na na naLive fish na na na na na naFresh chilled or frozenFresh, chilled or frozen

Fresh or chilled whole 6 6 7 7 8 8Fresh or chilled whole 6 6 7 7 8 8Frozen whole 7 6 6 6 6 6Frozen whole 7 6 6 6 6 6F h hill d fill t 1 1 1 1 1 1Fresh or chilled fillets 1 1 1 1 1 1F f llFrozen fillets 41 42 43 41 43 45Other 5 4 5 3 4 2

Canned fish 53 52 54 54 54 60Canned fish 53 52 54 54 54 60Smoked, dried or salted fish 3 4 4 4 4 4Smoked, dried or salted fish 3 4 4 4 4 4Other fish preparations 14 17 18 18 21 21Other fish preparations 14 17 18 18 21 21

129 134 137 134 140 147Total a 129 134 137 134 140 147

Crustaceans and molluscsCrustaceans and molluscsFresh chilled or frozen bFresh, chilled or frozen b

Prawns 23 26 19 13 18 16Prawns 23 26 19 13 18 16Lobster 1 1 1 0 1 1Lobster 1 1 1 0 1 1S ll 2 3 2 2 3 3Scallops 2 3 2 2 3 3Oysters 1 1 1 1 1 1yMussels 2 2 2 3 2 3Mussels 2 2 2 3 2 3Other 17 17 17 19 18 18Other 17 17 17 19 18 18

Prepared and preserved 13 15 19 21 24 24Prepared and preserved 13 15 19 21 24 24Extracts and pastes 0 0 0 0 0 0Extracts and pastes 0 0 0 0 0 0Other 0 0 0 0 0 0Other 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 59 65 61 60 67 65

Total edible 188 199 198 193 208 212Total edible a 188 199 198 193 208 212

a Excludes live tonnage. b Includes dried and salted. na Not available. 0 is used to denote nil or less than 500 tonnes.a Excludes live tonnage. b Includes dried and salted. na Not available. 0 is used to denote nil or less than 500 tonnes.Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Excludes live tonnage. b Includes dried and salted. na Not available. 0 is used to denote nil or less than 500 tonnes.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

gSource: Australian Bureau of Statistics


Fisheries imports

TABLE 25 Value of fisheries products imports Australia

2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–112005 06 2006 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $m

EdibleEdibleFishFishLive fish 0 0 0 0 0 0Live fish 0 0 0 0 0 0Fresh chilled or frozenFresh, chilled or frozen

Fresh or chilled whole 36 46 52 55 60 63Fresh or chilled whole 36 46 52 55 60 63Frozen whole 19 18 22 22 22 22Frozen whole 19 18 22 22 22 22F h hill d fill t 5 7 7 7 9 9Fresh or chilled fillets 5 7 7 7 9 9F f llFrozen fillets 197 228 228 239 232 230Other 16 17 15 13 19 13

Prepared and preserved fish 229 244 257 331 257 287Prepared and preserved fish 229 244 257 331 257 287Smoked, dried or salted fish 36 53 45 50 46 43Smoked, dried or salted fish 36 53 45 50 46 43Other fish preparations 64 88 87 107 106 102Other fish preparations 64 88 87 107 106 102

602 701 715 825 751 769Total a 602 701 715 825 751 769

Crustaceans and molluscsCrustaceans and molluscsFresh chilled or frozen bFresh, chilled or frozen b

Prawns 201 246 167 135 159 149Prawns 201 246 167 135 159 149L b t 10 13 14 9 11 14Lobster 10 13 14 9 11 14

llScallops 31 30 28 30 34 34pOysters 6 7 7 9 9 6Oyste s 6 9 9 6Mussels 9 9 9 12 9 10Mussels 9 9 9 12 9 10Other 80 74 63 75 82 98Other 80 74 63 75 82 98

Prepared and preserved 88 101 128 185 188 190Prepared and preserved 88 101 128 185 188 190Extracts and pastes 0 0 0 0 0 0Extracts and pastes 0 0 0 0 0 0Other 2 2 1 3 2 2Other 2 2 1 3 2 2

Total 426 483 417 458 494 504Total 426 483 417 458 494 504

T t l dibl 1 028 1 184 1 132 1 283 1 246 1 273Total edible a 1 028 1 184 1 132 1 283 1 246 1 273

Non-edibleNon-ediblePearls 159 182 166 321 171 167Pearls c 159 182 166 321 171 167Fish meal 22 40 41 42 52 47Fish meal 22 40 41 42 52 47O t l fi h 5 5 5 6 5 4Ornamental fish 5 5 5 6 5 4M i f d il 2 2 3 2 3Marine fats and oils 17 24 27 34 27 31Other marine products 34 32 26 25 15 10p

Total non-edible 237 283 266 427 269 258Total non-edible 237 283 266 427 269 258

Total fisheries products a 1 266 1 467 1 398 1 710 1 515 1 531p

a Includes live value. b Includes dried and salted c Mostly re-imports. 0 is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.a Includes live value. b Includes dried and salted c Mostly re-imports. 0 is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes live value. b Includes dried and salted c Mostly re-imports. 0 is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

y p $Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics


Agricultural exports

TABLE 26 Agricultural exports to Japan (fob) Australia

2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–112005 06 2006 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $m

Grains and oilseedsWinter cropsp

barley a 195 218 234 335 284 260barley a 195 218 234 335 284 260canola 140 86 70 65 109 41canola 140 86 70 65 109 41chickpeas 0 0 0 0 0 0chickpeas 0 0 0 0 0 0lupins 12 7 4 9 9 9lupins 12 7 4 9 9 9oats 3 2 2 3 2 2oats 3 2 2 3 2 2peas b 0 0 0 0 0 0peas b 0 0 0 0 0 0

h t 239 276 355 291 299 408wheat c 239 276 355 291 299 408SSummer crops

tt d 41 25 8 16 31 24cottonseed 41 25 8 16 31 24i 0 0 0 0 0 0rice 0 0 0 0 0 0

grain sorghum 14 1 25 319 70 105g gother oilseeds d 2 1 6 4 1 1other oilseeds d 2 1 6 4 1 1

Total grains and oilseeds 646 617 703 1 042 805 852Total grains and oilseeds 646 617 703 1 042 805 852I d t i lIndustrial cropsRaw cotton e 57 59 47 39 31 48 57 59 47 39 31 48Sugar s 179 238 129 192 190 194Sugar s 179 238 129 192 190 194Wine 44 49 49 54 43 44Wine 44 49 49 54 43 44T l 280 346 225 285 264 286Total 280 346 225 285 264 286HorticultureHorticultureFruit and nuts 110 101 93 85 77 85Fruit and nuts 110 101 93 85 77 85Vegetables 27 21 19 27 20 24Vegetables 27 21 19 27 20 24Other crops 379 351 329 392 352 368Other crops 379 351 329 392 352 368T l 1 442 1 437 1 370 1 831 1 519 1 615Total crops 1 442 1 437 1 370 1 831 1 519 1 615Meat and live animals for slaughterMeat and live animals for slaughterBeef and veal 2 195 2 138 1 856 2 101 1 698 1 689Beef and veal 2 195 2 138 1 856 2 101 1 698 1 689Live cattle g 19 18 18 14 15 16Live cattle g 19 18 18 14 15 16Lamb 93 64 54 70 56 61Lamb 93 64 54 70 56 61Live sheep g 0 0 0 0 0 0Live sheep g 0 0 0 0 0 0Mutton 33 32 28 39 25 26Mutton 33 32 28 39 25 26Pi tPig meat 12 9 5 6 2 2P lPoultry meat 0 0 0 0 0 0y 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 2 352 2 262 1 962 2 230 1 796 1 794Total 2 352 2 262 1 962 2 230 1 796 1 794W lWool Greasy 6 6 0 2 4 9ySemi-processed 25 33 17 12 12 23pSkins 3 3 5 3 1 1Skins 3 3 5 3 1 1Total 34 42 22 17 17 33Total 34 42 22 17 17 33D i d tDairy productsB 5 8 17 11 2 6Butter 5 8 17 11 2 6ChCheese 298 338 427 399 358 356Casein 30 32 38 44 26 22Skim milk powder 13 11 10 22 3 2pWhole milk powder 1 1 0 0 0 0Whole milk powder 1 1 0 0 0 0Other dairy products 51 63 53 46 44 37Other dairy products 51 63 53 46 44 37Total dairy product exports 398 453 545 521 433 423Total dairy product exports 398 453 545 521 433 423O h li k 549 504 447 472 352 378Other livestock exports 549 504 447 472 352 378Total livestock exports 3 332 3 261 2 976 3 240 2 598 2 629Total livestock exports 3 332 3 261 2 976 3 240 2 598 2 629Total agricultural exports 4 774 4 697 4 346 5 071 4 117 4 243Total agricultural exports 4 774 4 697 4 346 5 071 4 117 4 243

a Includes the grain equivalent of malt. b Field peas and cowpeas. c Includes the wheat equivalent of flour. d Includes soybeans, linseed, a Includes the grain equivalent of malt. b Field peas and cowpeas. c Includes the wheat equivalent of flour. d Includes soybeans, linseed, sunflowerseed, safflowerseed and peanuts. Excludes meals and oils. e Excludes cotton waste and linters. g Excludes breeding stock.. 0 is a Includes the grain equivalent of malt. b Field peas and cowpeas. c Includes the wheat equivalent of flour. d Includes soybeans, linseed, sunflowerseed, safflowerseed and peanuts. Excludes meals and oils. e Excludes cotton waste and linters. g Excludes breeding stock.. 0 is a Includes the grain equivalent of malt. b Field peas and cowpeas. c Includes the wheat equivalent of flour. d Includes soybeans, linseed, sunflowerseed, safflowerseed and peanuts. Excludes meals and oils. e Excludes cotton waste and linters. g Excludes breeding stock.. 0 is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.

l f

g q p p q ysunflowerseed, safflowerseed and peanuts. Excludes meals and oils. e Excludes cotton waste and linters. g Excludes breeding stock.. 0 is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsused to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics



TABLE 27 Agricultural exports to the United States (fob) Australia

2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–112005 06 2006 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $m






Total grains and oilseeds 2 2 2 3 12 2Total grains and oilseeds 2 2 2 3 12 2I d t i lIndustrial cropsRaw cotton e 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Sugar s 96 97 47 78 68 65Sugar s 96 97 47 78 68 65Wine 901 956 745 741 608 478Wine 901 956 745 741 608 478T l 998 1 053 793 820 676 542Total 998 1 053 793 820 676 542HorticultureHorticultureFruit and nuts 93 77 72 64 78 37Fruit and nuts 93 77 72 64 78 37Vegetables 0 0 0 0 0 1Vegetables 0 0 0 0 0 1Other crops 115 128 149 242 228 228Other crops 115 128 149 242 228 228T l 1 208 1 262 1 015 1 128 994 810Total crops 1 208 1 262 1 015 1 128 994 810Meat and live animals for slaughterMeat and live animals for slaughterBeef and veal 1 161 1 239 949 1 231 813 709Beef and veal 1 161 1 239 949 1 231 813 709Live cattle g 0 0 0 0 0 0Live cattle g 0 0 0 0 0 0Lamb 314 309 307 357 296 333Lamb 314 309 307 357 296 333Live sheep g 0 0 0 0 0 0Live sheep g 0 0 0 0 0 0Mutton 45 47 44 36 33 41Mutton 45 47 44 36 33 41Pi tPig meat 0 0 0 0 0 0P lPoultry meat 0 0 0 0 0 0y 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 1 520 1 595 1 300 1 623 1 142 1 082Total 1 520 1 595 1 300 1 623 1 142 1 082W lWool Greasy 17 16 9 7 9 11ySemi-processed 2 1 2 1 3 3pSkins 2 1 0 0 0 0Skins 2 1 0 0 0 0Total 21 19 11 8 12 14Total 21 19 11 8 12 14D i d tDairy productsB 25 13 10 19 10 3Butter 25 13 10 19 10 3ChCheese 54 53 37 60 20 12Casein 27 32 42 29 23 13Skim milk powder 4 5 7 0 0 0pWhole milk powder 15 13 9 8 9 4Whole milk powder 15 13 9 8 9 4Other dairy products 14 7 10 10 13 17Other dairy products 14 7 10 10 13 17Total dairy product exports 139 123 115 126 74 50Total dairy product exports 139 123 115 126 74 50O h li k 126 129 133 136 129 139Other livestock exports 126 129 133 136 129 139Total livestock exports 1 806 1 866 1 559 1 893 1 358 1 286Total livestock exports 1 806 1 866 1 559 1 893 1 358 1 286Total agricultural exports 3 014 3 127 2 574 3 022 2 352 2 096Total agricultural exports 3 014 3 127 2 574 3 022 2 352 2 096

a Includes the grain equivalent of malt. b Field peas and cowpeas. c Includes the wheat equivalent of flour. d Includes soybeans, linseed, a Includes the grain equivalent of malt. b Field peas and cowpeas. c Includes the wheat equivalent of flour. d Includes soybeans, linseed, sunflowerseed, safflowerseed and peanuts. Excludes meals and oils. e Excludes cotton waste and linters. g Excludes breeding stock. 0 is

d d il l h $0 5 illi

a Includes the grain equivalent of malt. b Field peas and cowpeas. c Includes the wheat equivalent of flour. d Includes soybeans, linseed, sunflowerseed, safflowerseed and peanuts. Excludes meals and oils. e Excludes cotton waste and linters. g Excludes breeding stock. 0 is

d d il l h $0 5 illi

a Includes the grain equivalent of malt. b Field peas and cowpeas. c Includes the wheat equivalent of flour. d Includes soybeans, linseed, sunflowerseed, safflowerseed and peanuts. Excludes meals and oils. e Excludes cotton waste and linters. g Excludes breeding stock. 0 is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

g q p p q ysunflowerseed, safflowerseed and peanuts. Excludes meals and oils. e Excludes cotton waste and linters. g Excludes breeding stock. 0 is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsused to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics



TABLE 28 Agricultural exports to China (fob) Australia

2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–112005 06 2006 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $m






Total grains and oilseeds 344 267 296 329 485 514Total grains and oilseeds 344 267 296 329 485 514I d t i lIndustrial cropsRaw cotton e 505 281 164 165 274 551Raw cotton e 505 281 164 165 274 551Sugar s 69 29 15 3 4 31Sugar s 69 29 15 3 4 31Wine 21 49 62 94 140 181Wine 21 49 62 94 140 181T l 595 358 241 262 418 763Total 595 358 241 262 418 763HorticultureHorticultureFruit and nuts 13 16 17 16 11 9Fruit and nuts 13 16 17 16 11 9Vegetables 0 0 0 0 0 0Vegetables 0 0 0 0 0 0Other crops 16 31 38 28 46 45Other crops 16 31 38 28 46 45T l 969 672 592 635 960 1 330Total crops 969 672 592 635 960 1 330Meat and live animals for slaughterMeat and live animals for slaughterBeef and veal 13 12 17 23 28 52Beef and veal 13 12 17 23 28 52Live cattle g 3 8 0 0 5 4Live cattle g 3 8 0 0 5 4Lamb 22 22 43 42 37 76Lamb 22 22 43 42 37 76Live sheep g 2 0 0 0 0 0Live sheep g 2 0 0 0 0 0Mutton 3 3 9 15 21 26Mutton 3 3 9 15 21 26Pi tPig meat 0 0 0 0 0 0P lPoultry meat 0 0 0 0 0 0y 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 44 46 70 81 90 157Total 44 46 70 81 90 157W lWool Greasy 1 258 1 689 1 455 1 328 1 460 1 864ySemi-processed 46 49 28 55 62 21pSkins 181 293 265 271 257 351Skins 181 293 265 271 257 351Total 1 485 2 031 1 748 1 654 1 779 2 235Total 1 485 2 031 1 748 1 654 1 779 2 235D i d tDairy productsB 1 3 4 3 5 4Butter 1 3 4 3 5 4ChCheese 10 12 18 14 23 30Casein 1 3 4 5 7 1Skim milk powder 14 23 34 39 22 37pWhole milk powder 7 2 21 48 38 52Whole milk powder 7 2 21 48 38 52Other dairy products 27 37 58 54 45 35Other dairy products 27 37 58 54 45 35Total dairy product exports 59 81 139 164 139 159Total dairy product exports 59 81 139 164 139 159O h li k 297 238 357 413 493 548Other livestock exports 297 238 357 413 493 548Total livestock exports 1 885 2 396 2 315 2 311 2 502 3 100Total livestock exports 1 885 2 396 2 315 2 311 2 502 3 100Total agricultural exports 2 854 3 068 2 907 2 946 3 462 4 431Total agricultural exports 2 854 3 068 2 907 2 946 3 462 4 431a Includes the grain equivalent of malt. b Field peas and cowpeas. c Includes the wheat equivalent of flour. d Includes soybeans, linseed,

fl d ffl d d E l d l d il E l d d li E l d b di k 0 ia Includes the grain equivalent of malt. b Field peas and cowpeas. c Includes the wheat equivalent of flour. d Includes soybeans, linseed,

fl d ffl d d E l d l d il E l d d li E l d b di k 0 ia Includes the grain equivalent of malt. b Field peas and cowpeas. c Includes the wheat equivalent of flour. d Includes soybeans, linseed, sunflowerseed, safflowerseed and peanuts. Excludes meals and oils. e Excludes cotton waste and linters. g Excludes breeding stock. 0 is

d t d t il l th $0 5 illi

a Includes the grain equivalent of malt. b Field peas and cowpeas. c Includes the wheat equivalent of flour. d Includes soybeans, linseed, sunflowerseed, safflowerseed and peanuts. Excludes meals and oils. e Excludes cotton waste and linters. g Excludes breeding stock. 0 is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

sunflowerseed, safflowerseed and peanuts. Excludes meals and oils. e Excludes cotton waste and linters. g Excludes breeding stock. 0 is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsused to denote nil or less than $0.5 million.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics


TABLE 30 Value of Australian fisheries products trade, by selected countries Australia

TABLE 29 Value of Australian forest products trade, by selected countries

2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–112005 06 2006 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $m

ExportspEdible (excluding live)Edible (excluding live)

China 102 59 26 30 43 143China 102 59 26 30 43 143Chinese Taipei 55 50 45 54 33 30Chinese Taipei 55 50 45 54 33 30Hong Kong China 396 447 426 525 491 394Hong Kong, China 396 447 426 525 491 394Japan 371 306 328 302 215 226Japan 371 306 328 302 215 226Malaysia 6 5 8 13 9 13Malaysia 6 5 8 13 9 13N Z l d 12 10 13 9 17 10New Zealand 12 10 13 9 17 10SSingapore 36 41 40 44 38 41g pThailand 8 8 8 7 9 16United States 113 115 72 64 49 35United States 113 115 72 64 49 35

Non edibleNon-edibleHong Kong China 150 156 128 201 138 145Hong Kong, China 150 156 128 201 138 145J 63 69 53 64 50 43Japan 63 69 53 64 50 43New Zealand 10 9 2 2 3 3United States 28 34 24 22 15 8United States 28 34 24 22 15 8

ImportsImports aEdibl ( l di li )Edible (excluding live)

C dCanada 25 22 16 13 13 15China 101 156 133 152 173 186Chinese Taipei 24 27 32 33 37 39Chinese Taipei 24 27 32 33 37 39Denmark 19 26 19 24 24 19Denmark 19 26 19 24 24 19Indonesia 26 28 23 31 39 28Indonesia 26 28 23 31 39 28Japan 14 9 15 17 16 14Japan 14 9 15 17 16 14Malaysia 26 39 55 65 63 71Malaysia 26 39 55 65 63 71New Zealand 160 192 199 209 213 211New Zealand 160 192 199 209 213 211N 16 20 21 20 27 25Norway 16 20 21 20 27 25South Africa 29 33 24 23 30 28Thailand 270 279 295 368 322 340Thailand 270 279 295 368 322 340United States 27 40 29 50 37 40United States 27 40 29 50 37 40Vietnam 133 155 142 167 153 162Vietnam 133 155 142 167 153 162

a Country details for non-edible imports are not available.a Country details for non-edible imports are not available.Source: Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Country details for non-edible imports are not available.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

y pSource: Australian Bureau of Statistics

2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $m

ExportsExportsChina 252 270 360 390 394 544China 252 270 360 390 394 544Chinese Taipei 84 83 88 77 88 79Chinese Taipei 84 83 88 77 88 79Hong Kong 92 72 54 51 68 42Hong Kong 92 72 54 51 68 42J 802 888 965 860 774 745Japan 802 888 965 860 774 745M lMalaysia 47 48 57 78 82 106yNew Zealand 369 365 375 324 319 314Korea, Rep. of 75 116 91 103 48 40Korea, Rep. of 75 116 91 103 48 40

ImportsImportsChina 409 509 547 611 624 676China 409 509 547 611 624 676Fi l d 238 248 272 274 171 143Finland 238 248 272 274 171 143Germany 200 190 178 167 178 182yIndonesia 332 404 336 374 351 331Indonesia 332 404 336 374 351 331Malaysia 181 199 209 215 217 228Malaysia 181 199 209 215 217 228New Zealand 752 741 790 744 703 715New Zealand 752 741 790 744 703 715United States 281 276 289 320 313 285United States 281 276 289 320 313 285

Source: Australian Bureau of StatisticsSource: Australian Bureau of StatisticsSource: Australian Bureau of StatisticsSource: Australian Bureau of Statistics



Food exports

TABLE 31 Food exports by level of transformation Australia

2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–112005 06 2006 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $m

Minimally transformedMinimally transformedLi i l t fi h 668 752 761 924 924 887Live animals except fish 668 752 761 924 924 887Fish or shellfish 657 632 647 747 650 667HorticultureHorticultureVegetables 149 147 137 152 150 166Vegetables 149 147 137 152 150 166Fruit and nuts 482 451 433 563 472 368Fruit and nuts 482 451 433 563 472 368Total 631 598 571 716 622 534Total 631 598 571 716 622 534Grains a 4 305 3 329 4 221 6 383 4 632 6 765Grains a 4 305 3 329 4 221 6 383 4 632 6 765Oilseeds 412 167 346 644 657 973Oilseeds 412 167 346 644 657 973F d 49 54 41 49 43 50Food nec 49 54 41 49 43 50Substantially and elaborately transformedSubstantially and elaborately transformedMeatMeatMeat processing 6 673 7 048 6 506 7 411 6 313 6 887Meat processing 6 673 7 048 6 506 7 411 6 313 6 887Poultry processing 21 26 32 43 36 38Poultry processing 21 26 32 43 36 38B h d ll d 91 43 33 47 54 57Bacon, ham and smallgoods 91 43 33 47 54 57gTotal 6 785 7 117 6 571 7 501 6 403 6 983Total 6 785 7 117 6 571 7 501 6 403 6 983Seafood 606 548 440 417 357 350Seafood 606 548 440 417 357 350DairyDairyMilk and cream processing 1 210 1 089 1 258 1 354 880 1 107Milk and cream processing 1 210 1 089 1 258 1 354 880 1 107Ice cream 41 42 37 31 31 33Ice cream 41 42 37 31 31 33Ch 837 824 968 796 715 731Cheese 837 824 968 796 715 731Other dairy products 481 482 499 497 440 451y pTotal 2 569 2 438 2 763 2 679 2 066 2 322Total 2 569 2 438 2 763 2 679 2 066 2 322Fruit and vegetables 555 574 568 575 523 572Fruit and vegetables 555 574 568 575 523 572Oil and fat 150 169 239 303 289 293Oil and fat 150 169 239 303 289 293Flour mill and cereal foodFlour mill and cereal foodFlour mill products 230 269 315 419 365 344Flour mill products 230 269 315 419 365 344C l f d d b ki i 248 372 287 390 445 614Cereal food and baking mix 248 372 287 390 445 614gTotal 478 642 602 809 811 958Bakery productsBakery productsBread, cake and pastry 26 27 26 25 26 22Bread, cake and pastry 26 27 26 25 26 22Biscuit 107 111 118 127 135 134Biscuit 107 111 118 127 135 134Total 132 137 144 152 161 155Total 132 137 144 152 161 155Other foodOther foodS 1 503 1 551 1 035 1 374 1 924 1 479Sugar a 1 503 1 551 1 035 1 374 1 924 1 479Confectionery 208 215 237 269 260 252yFood nec 1 099 1 142 1 094 1 422 1 424 1 360Food nec 1 099 1 142 1 094 1 422 1 424 1 360Total 2 809 2 907 2 366 3 065 3 607 3 091Total 2 809 2 907 2 366 3 065 3 607 3 091Beverage and maltBeverage and maltSoft drink cordial and syrup 42 39 38 45 55 61Soft drink, cordial and syrup 42 39 38 45 55 61Beer and malt 218 273 335 447 406 318Beer and malt 218 273 335 447 406 318Wine 2 768 2 894 2 700 2 493 2 188 2 009Wine 2 768 2 894 2 700 2 493 2 188 2 009S i it 91 89 86 105 101 97Spirit 91 89 86 105 101 97Total 3 120 3 294 3 159 3 091 2 750 2 485Total food and beverageTotal food and beverageMinimally transformed 6 722 5 532 6 586 9 463 7 528 9 876Minimally transformed 6 722 5 532 6 586 9 463 7 528 9 876Substantially transformed 16 919 17 530 16 528 18 243 16 606 16 863Substantially transformed 16 919 17 530 16 528 18 243 16 606 16 863Elaborately transformed 286 297 324 350 362 346Elaborately transformed 286 297 324 350 362 346

Total 23 927 23 359 23 439 28 056 24 495 27 086Total 23 927 23 359 23 439 28 056 24 495 27 086

a Includes ABARES estimates where ABS confidentiality restrictions apply nec Not elsewhere classifieda Includes ABARES estimates where ABS confidentiality restrictions apply. nec Not elsewhere classified.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes ABARES estimates where ABS confidentiality restrictions apply. nec Not elsewhere classified.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Includes ABARES estimates where ABS confidentiality restrictions apply. nec Not elsewhere classified.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of StatisticsSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics


Food imports

TABLE 32 Food imports by level of transformation Australia

2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–112005 06 2006 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $m

Minimally transformedMinimally transformedLive animals except fish 1 1 1 2 1 2Live animals except fish 1 1 1 2 1 2Fi h h llfi h 47 57 65 67 72 73Fish or shellfish 47 57 65 67 72 73HorticultureVegetables 41 45 53 49 58 76Vegetables 41 45 53 49 58 76Fruit and nuts 191 194 216 225 262 245Fruit and nuts 191 194 216 225 262 245Total 233 238 269 274 320 322Total 233 238 269 274 320 322Grains 1 2 2 2 3 4Grains 1 2 2 2 3 4Oilseeds 20 78 49 49 36 36Oilseeds 20 78 49 49 36 36Food nec 140 176 188 180 229 306Food nec 140 176 188 180 229 306S b t ti ll d l b t l t f dSubstantially and elaborately transformedMeatMeatMeat processing 290 446 381 525 497 478Meat processing 290 446 381 525 497 478Poultry processing 0 0 0 0 0 0Poultry processing 0 0 0 0 0 0Bacon ham and smallgoods 43 42 50 68 82 90Bacon, ham and smallgoods 43 42 50 68 82 90T t l 333 489 431 593 579 567Total 333 489 431 593 579 567S f d 998 1 151 1 095 1 249 1 201 1 231Seafood 998 1 151 1 095 1 249 1 201 1 231DairyyMilk and cream processing 45 40 67 69 66 72Milk and cream processing 45 40 67 69 66 72Ice cream 30 40 37 39 40 44Ice cream 30 40 37 39 40 44Cheese 292 302 377 365 360 398Cheese 292 302 377 365 360 398Other dairy products 66 98 176 157 150 180Other dairy products 66 98 176 157 150 180T t l 432 480 656 631 615 694Total 432 480 656 631 615 694

d blFruit and vegetables 1 043 1 233 1 390 1 559 1 367 1 486gOil and fat 417 481 489 578 485 517Oil and fat 417 481 489 578 485 517Flour mill and cereal foodFlour mill and cereal foodFlour mill products 57 34 66 83 66 48Flour mill products 57 34 66 83 66 48Cereal food and baking mix 305 325 462 576 577 523Cereal food and baking mix 305 325 462 576 577 523Total 362 358 527 659 643 572Total 362 358 527 659 643 572Baker prod ctsBakery productsB d k d 138 163 175 197 191 222Bread, cake and pastry 138 163 175 197 191 222Biscuit 199 254 267 297 305 338Total 337 417 442 493 496 560Total 337 417 442 493 496 560Other foodOther foodSugar 19 20 22 44 71 125Sugar 19 20 22 44 71 125Confectionery 333 371 438 518 525 547Confectionery 333 371 438 518 525 547Food nec 1 075 1 186 1 270 1 492 1 450 1 525Food nec 1 075 1 186 1 270 1 492 1 450 1 525T t l 1 427 1 577 1 731 2 054 2 046 2 196Total 1 427 1 577 1 731 2 054 2 046 2 196B d lBeverage and maltgSoft drink, cordial and syrup 571 656 697 791 798 818Soft drink, cordial and syrup 571 656 697 791 798 818Beer and malt 112 126 161 226 212 196Beer and malt 112 126 161 226 212 196Wine 248 334 454 502 477 490Wine 248 334 454 502 477 490Spirit 414 465 491 530 538 544Spirit 414 465 491 530 538 544Total 1 345 1 582 1 802 2 050 2 026 2 048Total 1 345 1 582 1 802 2 050 2 026 2 048Total food and beverageTotal food and beverageMi i ll f d 441 551 574 574 661 742Minimally transformed 441 551 574 574 661 742Substantially transformed 6 435 7 430 8 167 9 437 9 024 9 425yElaborately transformed 259 338 396 429 434 445Elaborately transformed 259 338 396 429 434 445

Total 7 135 8 319 9 138 10 441 10 119 10 613Total 7 135 8 319 9 138 10 441 10 119 10 613

0 is used to denote nil or less than $0 5 million nec Not elsewhere classified0 is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million. nec Not elsewhere classified.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics0 is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million. nec Not elsewhere classified.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics0 is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million. nec Not elsewhere classified.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics


TABLE 33 Total food exports, by selected destination Australia

2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–11$m $m $m $m $m $m

Canada 425 423 402 380 335 332China 786 664 917 1 178 1 426 1 511Chinese Taipei 704 595 574 671 613 569Egypt 471 151 174 315 266 402Germany 172 123 162 153 109 263Hong Kong, China 789 827 857 1 082 997 886Indonesia 1 442 1 566 1 702 2 652 2 129 2 288Japan 4 916 4 752 4 553 5 517 4 278 4 207Korea, Rep. of 1 634 1 850 1 655 1 873 1 925 1 994Malaysia 750 801 799 1 231 853 849New Zealand 1 092 1 203 1 303 1 406 1 323 1 281Philippines 285 240 308 563 318 502Saudi Arabia 777 568 1 144 1 020 566 499Singapore 622 650 712 792 722 739Thailand 385 305 393 626 424 539United Arab Emirates 419 284 445 567 528 581United Kingdom 1 175 1 209 1 136 1 005 784 692United States 3 006 3 058 2 552 3 054 2 379 2 138Other 4 078 4 092 3 652 3 971 4 522 6 815

Total 23 927 23 359 23 439 28 056 24 495 27 086

Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

2005–06 2006–07 2007–08 2008–09 2009–10 2010–112005 06 2006 07 2007 08 2008 09 2009 10 2010 11$m $m $m $m $m $m$m $m $m $m $m $m

B il 78 120 129 150 110 148Brazil 78 120 129 150 110 148C d 176 254 222 271 237 223Canada 176 254 222 271 237 223China a 416 552 634 776 733 775C a aFrance 194 224 279 290 281 299France 194 224 279 290 281 299India 122 144 160 179 168 172India 122 144 160 179 168 172Indonesia 117 140 163 207 198 198Indonesia 117 140 163 207 198 198Ireland 468 510 536 559 586 252Ireland 468 510 536 559 586 252Italy 364 427 438 498 467 439Italy 364 427 438 498 467 439Malaysia 250 279 361 468 402 466Malaysia 250 279 361 468 402 466N th l d 137 169 184 227 201 201Netherlands 137 169 184 227 201 201

l dNew Zealand 1 359 1 472 1 734 1 746 1 877 1 981Papua New Guinea 34 38 36 45 44 57pSingapore 164 127 160 207 196 541Singapore 164 127 160 207 196 541Spain 144 194 174 154 187 173Spain 144 194 174 154 187 173Thailand 450 483 554 713 698 770Thailand 450 483 554 713 698 770United Kingdom 272 298 299 318 334 328United Kingdom 272 298 299 318 334 328U it d St t 631 721 810 1 006 902 976United States 631 721 810 1 006 902 976VVietnam 245 279 251 299 282 305Other 1 512 1 891 2 013 2 329 2 216 2 310

Total 7 135 8 319 9 138 10 441 10 119 10 613Total 7 135 8 319 9 138 10 441 10 119 10 613

a Excludes imports from Hong Kong.a Excludes imports from Hong Kong.a Excludes imports from Hong Kong.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statisticsa Excludes imports from Hong Kong.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of StatisticsSources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

TABLE 34 Total food imports, by selected source country Australia

Food trade


Research reportsAustralian wine grape production projections to 2013–14

Research Report 12.3Authors: Caroline Gunning-Trant and Walter Shafron

Publication date: 2 May 2012

This report provides information for wine grape producers and wine makers to assist in planning production programs on the basis of projected grape supply. Production estimates are made for 23 wine grape producing zones across Australia from 2011–12 to 2013–14.

Agricultural commodities

Research by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

DECEMBER QUARTER 2011

ABARES reports released since Agricultural commodities vol. 2 no. 1 March quarter 2012

Following is a selection of ABARES reports released since publication of Agricultural commodities in March 2012. A brief description of the nature of each report is provided. While not comprehensive, the selection provides an overview of the range of interests ABARES covers.

All reports can be downloaded from www.daff.gov.au/abares/publications.

For more information contact [email protected].


ABARES National Wood Processing Survey: 2010–11

Research Report 12.4Authors: Kevin Burns and Bethany Burke

Publication date: 1 June 2012

Between November 2011 and March 2012, ABARES undertook a survey of Australian woodprocessorstoobtainup-to-datemill-specificdata,includingmillinputs,production and employment. This survey updates the ABARES 2007 National Sawmill Survey.

Technical reportsGround cover monitoring for Australia, progress report to June 2011

Technical Report 12.1Authors: Jane Stewart, Lucy Randall, Jasmine Rickards and Vivienne Bordas


The Ground Cover Monitoring for Australia project aims to develop and implement a nationally agreed, reliable and cost-effective basis for measuring and mapping ground cover using satellite imagery, and produce regular updates of ground cover conditions across Australia. The project will aid the monitoring and reporting of ground cover change at national, state and regional scales.

The project provides regular ground cover information to assess environmental targets for soil erosion and land management in Australia.

Other reportsNational scale Vegetation Assets, States and Transitions (VAST version 2) 2008Author: ABARES

Publication date: 7 March 2012

TheVegetationAssets,StatesandTransitions(VAST)classificationordersvegetationbydegreeofanthropogenicmodificationasaseriesofstates,fromaresidualorbaseline condition to total removal. VAST is being developed to make explicit the links between land management and vegetation condition, provide a mechanism for describing the consequences of land management on vegetation condition and contribute to analysis of ecosystems services provided by vegetation.

The VAST dataset combines data derived from the Australian Land Disturbance Database, satellite imagery and land use and vegetation datasets to give a national picture of vegetation condition. The main difference between versions 1 and 2 is thatcoreareasofwildernesssignificancehavebeenincludedtorepresenttheVAST

‘Residual’ class and a native vegetation extent dataset has been used to check the accuracy of the VAST ‘Replaced’ class. Additionally, more up-to-date land use and land cover datasets have been used for version 2.

Report extracts


National scale Vegetation Assets, States and Transitions (VAST version 1) 2005Author: ABARES


TheVegetationAssets,StatesandTransitions(VAST)classificationordersvegetationbydegreeofanthropogenicmodificationasaseriesofstates,fromaresidualorbaseline condition to total removal. VAST is being developed to make explicit the links between land management and vegetation condition, provide a mechanism for describing the consequences of land management on vegetation condition and contribute to the analysis of ecosystems services provided by vegetation.

The VAST dataset combines data derived from the Australian Land Disturbance Database, satellite imagery and land use datasets to give a national picture of vegetation condition.

Native Vegetation Baseline, version 1 2004Author: ABARES


This dataset maps the extent of native vegetation for the Australian mainland. It is a binary dataset delineating native vegetation (value = 1) and non-native vegetation (value = 0). ABARES derived the dataset from data supplied by state and territory agencies in collaboration with the National Land and Water Resources Audit. It gives a national overview of the extent of native vegetation.

Dynamic Land Cover Map, version 1 2008Author: ABARES


ThisdatasetisthefirstcompletelandcoverclassificationforcontinentalAustralia.Ithas been validated against several independent national and international datasets including major vegetation groups, integrated vegetation 2009, GLOBCOVER 2005, and national-scale land use. In addition, the 34 landcover classes have been validated against several state and territory site-based vegetation description datasets.

The Dynamic Land Cover Map (DLCM) of Australia comprises six hierarchies and 34 classes such as water, bare, chenopods, forbs, cropping, grassland, hummock and tussock grasses, pastures, sedges, shrubs, sugar, trees and mining. The dynamic landcover database is a time-series database based on an analysis of 16-day Enhanced Vegetation Index composites between 2000 and 2008.

The DLCM is a result of collaboration between Geoscience Australia and ABARES. It presents landcover information based on the temporal behaviour of every 250x250-metreareaofthecountryfromApril2000toApril2008.Theclassificationschemeused to describe landcover categories in the DLCM conforms to the 2007 ISO landcover standard (19144-2).

Report extracts


Report extracts

Australian farm survey results, 2009–10 to 2011–12Author: ABARES

Publication date: 27 April 2012

Thisreportprovidesadetailedprofileofthefinancialperformanceoffarmbusinessesin the grains, livestock and dairy industries in 2009–10 to 2011–12. These industries include 68 per cent of farm business units in Australia.

The report also includes analysis of changes in farm business debt and farm investment together with analysis of productivity trends in the grains, livestock and dairy industries over the past 30 years.

Australia’s plantation log supply, 2010–2054Authors: Mijo Gavran, Ian Frakes, Stuart Davey and Sinniah Mahendrarajah


The National Plantation Inventory has been collecting data and reporting on plantations established primarily for timber production in Australia since 1993. ComprehensivelogsupplyforecastreportsarepublishedeveryfiveyearsandAustralia’s plantation log supply 2010–54 is the fourth log supply report prepared by the National Plantation Inventory.

The report includes updated data from plantation owners and managers and updated plantations statistics from the ABARES report Australian plantation statistics 2011. Results are reported for the 15 National Plantation Inventory regions.

Australian forest and wood products statistics, September and December quarters 2011Author: ABARES


The bi-annual report provides quarterly and annual data on consumption, production, import and export of wood and paper products.

This edition includes updated data for plantation areas, log harvest volumes and production data for key commodities for 2010–11, and Australian Bureau of Statistics trade data for the September and December quarters of 2011. It also provides an analysis of log harvest and trade by state to enable a comparison of selected forest industry characteristics.


Report extracts

Australian dairy: Financial performance of dairy producing farms, 2009–10 to 2011–12Author: ABARES


This report draws heavily on information obtained from dairy producing farms included in the ABARES annual Australian dairy industry survey (ADIS), which is part funded by Dairy Australia. It expands on farm survey results that were published in Agricultural commodities March quarter 2012 released at the ABARES Outlook 2012 conference.

The ADIS was conducted between July and November 2011, covering 2010–11 and making projections for 2011–12. Results are reported at national and regional levels, covering northern New South Wales and Queensland, northern Victoria and Riverina (NSW), Tasmania, Western Australia, South Australia, the Gippsland region (Vic.), western Victoria, and southern and central New South Wales.

Australian Crop Report, no. 162 June 2012Author: ABARES

Publication date: 13 June 2012

This report, released four times a year, provides a consistent and regular assessment ofcropprospectsformajorfieldcrops,estimatesofarea,yieldandproduction,andasummary of seasonal conditions on a state-by-state basis.

In this issue, the planting of winter crops is continuing and conditions for planting have generally been average to dry, interspersed by timely rainfall in eastern Australia. The total area planted to winter crops in Australia is forecast to fall as grain growers respond to lower grain prices. Total winter crop production will likely to be lower this season, compared with last year.

Harvesting of the 2011–12 summer crops is now largely complete. The estimates of grain sorghum and cotton production are expected to be similar to those published in the February edition of the Australian Crop Report. The estimate of rice production is likely to rise, with yield higher than initially expected.


Executive Director Kim Ritman (A/g) [email protected] (02) 6272 4671

Chief Economist Peter Gooday (A/g) [email protected] (02) 6272 2138

Chief Scientist David Cunningham (A/g) [email protected] (02) 6272 5954

Agricultural Commodities & Trade

Assistant Secretary and

Chief Commodity Analyst Jammie Penm [email protected] (02) 6272 2030

Agricultural Trade Neil Andrews [email protected] (02) 6272 2242

Agricultural Commodities Peter Collins [email protected] (02) 6272 2017

Commodities Data Dianne Stefanac [email protected] (02) 6272 2311

Research Engagement Anna Carr [email protected] (02) 6272 2287

& Outlook

Spatial Information

Standards & Implementation Evert Bleys [email protected] (02) 6272 5627

Biosecurity & Farm Analysis

Assistant Secretary Lisa Elliston [email protected] (02) 6272 2219

Biosecurity Ben Buetre [email protected] (02) 6272 2404

Farm Analysis Milly Lubulwa [email protected] (02) 6272 2069

Survey Collection Jason Bakonji (A/g) [email protected] (02) 6272 2074

Invasive Species Bertie Hennecke [email protected] (02) 6272 4263

Climate Change & Variability

Assistant Secretary Helal Ahammad [email protected] 0(2) 6272 2366

Climate Change Economics Edwina Heyhoe [email protected] (02) 6272 2109

Climate Impact Sciences Margaret Nicholson [email protected] (02) 6272 3648

ABARES contacts


ABARES contacts

Mitigation & Adaptation Sarah Bruce [email protected] (02) 6272 5268

Sciences Kate Harle [email protected] (02) 6272 3347

Fisheries & Quantitative Sciences

Assistant Secretary Ilona Stobutzki [email protected] (02) 6272 3726

Domestic Fisheries & Peter Ward (A/g) [email protected] (02) 6272 4163

Marine Environment

International Fisheries David Kirby [email protected] (02) 6272 5861

Fisheries Economics Robert Curtotti [email protected] (02) 6272 2014

Quantitative Sciences Belinda Barnes [email protected] (02) 6272 5374

Land and Forests

Assistant Secretary Robert Lesslie (A/g) [email protected] (02) 6272 5236

Forest Sciences Stuart Davey [email protected] (02) 6272 3441

Forest & Land Economics Beau Hug [email protected] (02) 6272 3929

Land Use & Management Phil Pritchard (A/g) [email protected] (02) 6272 4193

Productivity, Water and Social Sciences

Assistant Secretary John Gray (A/g) john [email protected] (02) 6272 5381

Productivity Alistair Davidson [email protected] (02) 6272 2487

Water Sciences Ian Mullen (A/g) [email protected] (02) 6272 5739

Water Economics Tim Goesch [email protected] (02) 6272 2009

Social Sciences Saan Ecker [email protected] (02) 6272 5930

Innovation Peter Stoutjesdijk [email protected] (02) 6272 4067

Library Resources Libby Williams [email protected] (02) 6272 4715

Production Online Design Merryn West [email protected] (02) 6272 2290

Media [email protected] (02) 6272 3232

Publication inquiries [email protected] (02) 6272 2010

Agricultural commodities June quarter 2012was designed and produced by the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry and the Agricultural Commodities team of ABARES.

Editors: Jenny Cook and Emma Rossiter

daff.gov.au/abares

Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES)

Postal address GPO Box 1563 Canberra ACT 2601

Switchboard +61 2 6272 2010

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Web www.daff.gov.au/abares

Also in this series• Agricultural commodities, September 2011• Agricultural commodities, December 2011• Agricultural commodities, March 2012

The ‘Biosphere’ Graphic ElementThe biosphere is a key part of the department’s visual identity. Individual biospheres are used to visually describe the diverse nature of the work we do as a department, in Australia and internationally.

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