agents of change or more of the same? · paul brathwaite &john feehery november 17, 2016 agents...
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Paul Brathwaite & John Feehery
November 17, 2016
AGENTS OF CHANGE OR MORE OF THE SAME?
The National Association of Business Political Action Committees2016 Biennial Post Election Conference
House and Senate Republican Leadership: Victory Heals All Wounds
• No Challenge to Ryan or McConnell• Diminished Power of the Freedom Caucus• No Movement of any Leaders• Cory Gardner and Steve Stivers take the reigns
Senate Democratic Leadership
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Position Current Leader Next LeaderLeader Reid (D‐NV) Schumer (D‐NY)
Whip Durbin (D‐IL) Durbin (D‐IL)
Assistant Leader Durbin (D‐IL) Murray (D‐WA)
Policy and Communications Chair Schumer (D‐NY) Stabenow (D‐MI)
Conference Vice Chairs Schumer (D‐NY) Warner (D‐VA) and Warren (D‐MA)
Steering Committee Chair Klobuchar (DFL‐MN) Klobuchar, (DFL‐MN)
Outreach Chair Klobuchar (DFL‐MN) Sanders (I‐VT)
Policy and Communications Vice Chair Stabenow (D‐MI) Manchin (D‐WV)
Conference Secretary Murray (D‐WA) Baldwin (D‐WI)
DSCC Chair Tester (D‐MT) TBD
House Democratic Leadership
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Position Current Leader Next Leader (Projected)Leader Pelosi (D‐CA) Pelosi (D‐CA)
Whip Hoyer (D‐MD) Hoyer (D‐MD)
Assistant Leader Clyburn (D‐SC) Clyburn (D‐SC)
Caucus Chairman Becerra (D‐CA) Crowley (D‐NY)
DCCC Chair Lujan (D‐NM) TBD
• What’s their district look like?• Who’s their Mentor?• Have they served in Congress or in the State
House?• Are they running for Class President or for the
Steering Committee?• What kind of staff are they hiring?• How much money did they raise for their own
campaign?• How do they look on television?• Do they want to join the Freedom Caucus?
How To Tell A Rising Star
Incoming Senate Democrats
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Chris Van Hollen (Maryland) John Kennedy (R) vs Foster Campbell (DDecember 10th Runoff (Louisiana)
Kamala Harris (California)
Catherine Cortez Masto (Nevada) Tammy Duckworth (Illinois)
Maggie Hassan (New Hampshire)
Incoming House Democrats
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The House freshman class will have 54 members, including from two runoffs in Louisiana.
Nanette Barragán (CA‐44)Lisa Blunt Rochester (DE‐AL)Anthony Brown (MD‐04)Salud Carbajal (CA‐24)Lou Correa (CA‐46)Charlie Crist (FL‐13)Val Demings (FL‐10)Adriano Espaillat (NY‐13)Dwight Evans (PA‐02)Vincente Gonzalez (TX‐15)Josh Gottheimer (NJ‐05)Colleen Hanabusa (HI‐01)Pramila Jayapal (WA‐07)Ro Khanna (CA‐17)Ruben Kihuen (NV‐04)
Raja Krishnamoorthi (IL‐08)Al Lawson (FL‐05)Donald McEachin (VA‐04)Stephanie Murphy (FL‐07)Thomas O’Halleran (AZ‐01)Jimmy Panetta (CA‐20)Jamie Raskin (MD‐08)Jacky Rosen (NV‐03)Brad Schneider (IL‐10)Carol Shea‐Porter (NH‐01)Darren Soto (FL‐09)Tom Suozzi (NY‐03)
Most Racial Diversity in History
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Congressional Black Caucus (49)
1. Anthony Brown (D‐MD)2. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D‐DE)3. Val Demings (D‐FL)4. Dwight Evans (D‐PA)5. Kamala Harris (D‐CA)6. Al Lawson (D‐FL)7. Donald McEachin (D‐VA)
Congressional Hispanic Caucus (31)
1. Nanette Barragán (D‐CA)2. Salud Carbajal (D‐CA)3. Lou Correa (D‐CA)4. Catherine Cortez Masto (D‐NV)5. Adriano Espaillat (D‐NY)6. Vicente Gonzalez (D‐TX)7. Ruben Kihuen (D‐NV)8. Darren Soto (D‐FL)
Asian Pacific American Caucus (15)
1. Tammy Duckworth (D‐IL)2. Colleen Hanabusa (D‐HI)3. Kamala Harris (D‐CA)4. Pramila Jayapal (D‐WA)5. Ro Khanna(D‐CA)6. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D‐IL)7. Stephanie Murphy (D‐FL)
NOTE: The Tri‐Caucus now comprises a total of 97 members, the highest in history.
Women in Congress
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In the Senate (21):
1. Catherine Cortez Masto (D‐NV)2. Tammy Duckworth (D‐IL)3. Kamala Harris (D‐CA)4. Maggie Hassan (D‐NH)
In the House (83):
1. Nanette Barragán (D‐CA)2. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D‐DE)3. Val Demings (D‐FL)4. Colleen Hanabusa (D‐HI)5. Pramila Jayapal (D‐WA)6. Stephanie Murphy (D‐FL)7. Jacky Rosen (D‐NV)8. Carol Shea‐Porter (D‐NH)
Fun Fact: Incoming female senators outnumber their male counterparts for the first time in history.
• Do they know what they don’t know?• Who Is in Charge of Hiring• Will Bannon and Priebus Play Nice in the Sand Box?
• Do Never Trumpers Have a Chance or a Desire to serve?
• Will He Go Bipartisan? • Will He Go Business or Government Experience?
The Trump Transition
• Will He Govern from the Center or from the Right?
• Will He Seeks Democrat input at the beginning, at the end or not even bother?
• Will Twitter Become A Tool or An Anvil Around His Neck?
• How will he use his Cabinet? • What role will his family play?• Will He Adapt to Washington or Will He Continue As An Outsider?
How will Trump Govern?
Potential GOP Stars in the Next Congress
• Liz Cheney: Big name, big network• Lloyd Smucker; If it’s Smucker’s, it has to be good
• Francis Rooney: Of the Rooney clan• Mike Gallagher: Favorite of Paul Ryan• Roger Marshall : Beat Tim Huelscamp• John Faso: Real pro from New York
Thank You
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Paul BrathwaitePodesta Group
1001 G Street, NW, #1000WWashington, DC 20001
(202) 879‐[email protected]
John FeeheryQGA Public Affairs
1133 Connecticut Avenue, NWFifth Floor
Washington, DC 20036(202) 457‐1110