agendas21.q4cdn.com/513962416/files/doc_presentations/2-5-15... · 2016-09-06 · presentation2 !...

16
Agenda Page [ C L I E N T N A M E ] Presentation2 Argus Americas LPG Summit Miami February 5 th , 2015 Ted Young, CFO

Upload: others

Post on 21-Jul-2020

0 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Agendas21.q4cdn.com/513962416/files/doc_presentations/2-5-15... · 2016-09-06 · Presentation2 ! ArgusAmericasLPG&Summit&1&Miami& February&5th,2015&! TedYoung,CFO! 2 Disclaimer Forward-Looking

Agenda

Page

[ C L I E N T N A M E ]

Presentation2

 Argus  Americas  LPG  Summit  -­‐  Miami  

February  5th,  2015    

Ted  Young,  CFO  

Page 2: Agendas21.q4cdn.com/513962416/files/doc_presentations/2-5-15... · 2016-09-06 · Presentation2 ! ArgusAmericasLPG&Summit&1&Miami& February&5th,2015&! TedYoung,CFO! 2 Disclaimer Forward-Looking

2

Disclaimer

Forward-Looking Statements

This Presentation contains certain forward-looking statements relating to the business, future financial performance and results of the Company and/or the industry in which it operates. In particular, this Presentation contains forward-looking statements such as those with respect to cost of construction of the Company’s newbuildings and timing of their delivery, values of the assets of the Company and the potential future revenue and EBITDA these assets may yield under current or future contracts, the potential future revenues and cash flows of the Company, the potential future demand and market for the Company’s assets and the Company’s equity and debt financing requirements and its ability to obtain financing in a timely manner and at favorable terms. Forward-looking statements concern future circumstances and results and other statements that are not historical facts, sometimes identified by the words “believes”, “expects”, “predicts”, “intends”, “projects”, “plans”, “estimates”, “aims”, “foresees”, “anticipates”, “targets”, and similar expressions. The forward-looking statements contained in this Presentation, including assumptions, opinions and views of the Company or cited from third party sources, are solely opinions and forecasts which are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual events to differ materially from any anticipated development. Potential investors are expressly advised that financial projections, such as the revenue and cash flow projections contained herein, cannot be used as reliable indicators of future revenues or cash flows. Neither the Company, nor any of their parent or subsidiary undertakings or any such person’s officers or employees provides any assurance that the assumptions underlying such forward-looking statements are free from errors nor does any of them accept any responsibility for the future accuracy of the opinions expressed in this Presentation or the actual occurrence of the forecasted developments. No obligation is assumed to update any forward-looking statements or to conform these forward-looking statements to our actual results.

Page 3: Agendas21.q4cdn.com/513962416/files/doc_presentations/2-5-15... · 2016-09-06 · Presentation2 ! ArgusAmericasLPG&Summit&1&Miami& February&5th,2015&! TedYoung,CFO! 2 Disclaimer Forward-Looking

3

Investment Highlights Largest ECO VLGC fleet, VLGCs represent critical link in the LPG supply chain

Fleet 3 Modern VLGCs, 3 ECO VLGCs, 1 pressurized LPG carrier 16 ECO VLGCs (Delivering Q2’15 – Q1’16)

Management Fully Integrated, In-house Commercial & Technical management

Chartering strategy Balanced mix of time charters and spot exposure, targeting high quality counterparties

Key Counterparties

Global presence Stamford, CT (Headquarters), London, UK and Piraeus, Greece

Entry into LPG 2002

Overview:

VLGC Vessel Count

6

20 22

Current Fleet End 2015 Feb-16

Average Age (Years)

+14

+2

End of 2014 End of 2015

3.6 1.6

Page 4: Agendas21.q4cdn.com/513962416/files/doc_presentations/2-5-15... · 2016-09-06 · Presentation2 ! ArgusAmericasLPG&Summit&1&Miami& February&5th,2015&! TedYoung,CFO! 2 Disclaimer Forward-Looking

4

Trading & Logistics in the International Market

Emerging Demand Markets for LPG

Page 5: Agendas21.q4cdn.com/513962416/files/doc_presentations/2-5-15... · 2016-09-06 · Presentation2 ! ArgusAmericasLPG&Summit&1&Miami& February&5th,2015&! TedYoung,CFO! 2 Disclaimer Forward-Looking

5

5  

Growing Markets for LPG

US Virgin Islands

South Africa

India

China

Thailand

Indonesia

Turkey

Brazil

Mauritius

Page 6: Agendas21.q4cdn.com/513962416/files/doc_presentations/2-5-15... · 2016-09-06 · Presentation2 ! ArgusAmericasLPG&Summit&1&Miami& February&5th,2015&! TedYoung,CFO! 2 Disclaimer Forward-Looking

6

Petrochemical  Sector    

Propane  Dehydrogena5on  Plants    

Page 7: Agendas21.q4cdn.com/513962416/files/doc_presentations/2-5-15... · 2016-09-06 · Presentation2 ! ArgusAmericasLPG&Summit&1&Miami& February&5th,2015&! TedYoung,CFO! 2 Disclaimer Forward-Looking

7

Surge in Chinese PDH adding to Global Demand

Note: Propylene production capacity to VLGC Equivalents of Propane demand: 1 tonne of propylene yields 1.18 tonnes of propane; 1 VLGC equivalent is 44,000 tonnes of propane Source: ICIS, Poten & Partners, CNBC.com; 4/10/14, “Riding shale boom, US to become major LPG supplier to China”

24

56

91

123

150 164

235

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

0

50

100

150

200

250

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 All Planned

New Cumulative Chinese PDH Propane Feedstock

New Cumulative Chinese PDH Propylene Production

Propylene Capacity

(000 tonnes)

VLGC Equivalents

Commenced & Planned Chinese PDH Projects Propane Feedstock Required

n  PDH importers require high purity propane, best sourced from the US or Middle East

n  It is estimated that total demand from PDH plants in 2015 will be about 2 million tonnes

n  China is expected to reduce its reliance on imported polypropylene, which currently accounts for approximately 30% of its demand

n  There are currently four Chinese PDH plants in operation

n  Sinopec, Tianjin Bohai, Oriental Energy, Fujain Meide, and Shaoxing Sanyuan Petrochemical have all signed long term supply contracts for US LPG

Project

Estimated annual total propane required (kta)

Operational Main Application

Tianjin Bohai 790 Yes, 2013 Propylene derivative, Acrylic acid etc.

Zhejiang Satelite 540 Yes, 2014 Propylene derivative, Acrylic acid etc.

Sanyuan PC Shaoxing 540 Yes, 2014 Polypropylene

Ningbo Haiyue 720 Yes, 2014 Propylene derivative, Acrylic acid etc.

Wanhua Chem 900 Expected 2015

Propylene derivative, Acrylic acid etc.

ZYPC 792 Expected 2015 Polypropylene

Fujain PC 792 Expected 2016 Polypropylene

Hebei Haiwei 600 Expected 2016 Polypropylene

Ningbo Fortune Oriental 792 Beyond 2016 Polypropylene

Page 8: Agendas21.q4cdn.com/513962416/files/doc_presentations/2-5-15... · 2016-09-06 · Presentation2 ! ArgusAmericasLPG&Summit&1&Miami& February&5th,2015&! TedYoung,CFO! 2 Disclaimer Forward-Looking

8

Retail  Markets  

Page 9: Agendas21.q4cdn.com/513962416/files/doc_presentations/2-5-15... · 2016-09-06 · Presentation2 ! ArgusAmericasLPG&Summit&1&Miami& February&5th,2015&! TedYoung,CFO! 2 Disclaimer Forward-Looking

9

“Peak Shaving” strategies – Allow users to supplement natural gas for LPG to off set high prices during times of peak demand

Japanese power companies have recently considered supplementing larger percentages of LNG with LPG in power generation due to recent drop In price

SNG blending systems can be implemented in more remote geographies to quickly convert coal and oil powered power plants to LPG

Ideal for customers looking to transition to natural gas but can not wait for infrastructure or supply but wish to convert coal or oil fired generators now

LPG as a bridge fuel to Natural Gas

Page 10: Agendas21.q4cdn.com/513962416/files/doc_presentations/2-5-15... · 2016-09-06 · Presentation2 ! ArgusAmericasLPG&Summit&1&Miami& February&5th,2015&! TedYoung,CFO! 2 Disclaimer Forward-Looking

10

§  Retail  demand  has  increased  overall  by  1.5mm  tons  from  2009  to  2014  

§  Newly  expanded  import  terminals  could  spur  more  growth  

§  Although  the  7  year  government  subsidy  was  dropped  in  Dec  2014,  the  decline  in  interna5onal  prices  has  supported  retail  demand    

Thailand & Indonesia

§  Retail  demand  from  the  residen5al  and  commercial  sector  has  increased  110%  from  2009  to  2014  

§  2007  Government  began  ini5a5ve  to  replace  kerosene  for  cooking  with  LPG    

§  2009  –  2.9mm  tons  

§  2013  –  5.6mm  tons  

 

 

Indonesia  Thailand  

Page 11: Agendas21.q4cdn.com/513962416/files/doc_presentations/2-5-15... · 2016-09-06 · Presentation2 ! ArgusAmericasLPG&Summit&1&Miami& February&5th,2015&! TedYoung,CFO! 2 Disclaimer Forward-Looking

11

§  2013-­‐2014:  Total  demand  growth  for  LPG  in  India  increased  abt.  18.5%  

§  2010-­‐2014:  Government  has  proac5vely  pushed  popula5on  away  from  tradi5onal  hea5ng/cooking  methods  by  subsidizing  LPG    

§  2014:  The  cap  on  subsidized  cylinders  per  household  was  liWed  from  9  to  12    

§  Demand  expected  to  increase  within  residen5al  and  commercial  sector    

India

Indian  LPG  Retail  Demand  

Page 12: Agendas21.q4cdn.com/513962416/files/doc_presentations/2-5-15... · 2016-09-06 · Presentation2 ! ArgusAmericasLPG&Summit&1&Miami& February&5th,2015&! TedYoung,CFO! 2 Disclaimer Forward-Looking

12

Brazil Turkey

§  Brazil  is  another  example  of  successful  government  ini5a5ve  to  switch  from  tradi5onal  hea5ng  and  cooking  fuels  to  LPG    

§  Growth  forecasted  to  increase  from  2%  to  around  2.5%  in  2018  within  the  residen5al/commercial  sector  (higher  than  expected  GDP  growth)  

§  Turkey’s  LPG  demand  growth  has  historically  been  dominated  by  autogas  demand  

§  Autogas  demand  expected  to  increase,  lower  price  should  

facilitate  higher  rate  

§  Large  bulk  demand  increased  substan5aly  in  2013  with  the  conversion  of  Petkim  to  be  able  to  crack  butane  with  Naphtha    

§  Bayegan  propane  dehydrogena5on  plant  should  be  constructred  by  2017    

Page 13: Agendas21.q4cdn.com/513962416/files/doc_presentations/2-5-15... · 2016-09-06 · Presentation2 ! ArgusAmericasLPG&Summit&1&Miami& February&5th,2015&! TedYoung,CFO! 2 Disclaimer Forward-Looking

13

Power  Genera5on    

Page 14: Agendas21.q4cdn.com/513962416/files/doc_presentations/2-5-15... · 2016-09-06 · Presentation2 ! ArgusAmericasLPG&Summit&1&Miami& February&5th,2015&! TedYoung,CFO! 2 Disclaimer Forward-Looking

14

The Future: Virgin Islands Conversion Project with Vitol

§  Vitol  is  leading  the  transforma5on  of  the  

power  sector  in  the  US  Virgin  Islands  

§  Upon  comple5on  of  the  $150  MM  project,  

Virgin  Island  power  consumers  can  expect  

savings  of  up  to  30%  

§  Current  Residen5al  prices:  39  cents/KW  

hour  vs.  51  cents  in  Sep.  2014  

§  By  July,  both  St.  Thomas  and  St  Croix  will  

derive  100%  of  their  electricity  needs  from  

propane  

§  Green  house  gas  emissions  slated  to  decline  

20%  

St Croix Conversion

St Thomas Conversion

-  VLGCS will deliver the cargo and perform STS to pressure vessels every 3 days (w/ two designated pressure vessels) for discharge at the small berth

Page 15: Agendas21.q4cdn.com/513962416/files/doc_presentations/2-5-15... · 2016-09-06 · Presentation2 ! ArgusAmericasLPG&Summit&1&Miami& February&5th,2015&! TedYoung,CFO! 2 Disclaimer Forward-Looking

15

Key Factors Favoring LPG Adoption for Power Generation and Retail Consumption

By-product of natural gas and oil production

Source: ExceptionalEnergy.com

Economic   Environmental  

ü Established  produc5on  hubs  

ü Global  supply  base  

ü Mari5me  and  land  transport  op5ons  

ü Price  compe55ve  product  

ü Low  cost  “last  mile”  infrastructure  

ü Lower  greenhouse  gas  emissions  

ü 20%  less  CO2  than  hea5ng  oil    

ü 50%  less  CO2  than  coal  

ü Safe  fuel  source  

ü Avoids  harmful  and  dangerous  waste  

LPG  should  be  the  fuel  of  choice  for  emerging  economies    

Page 16: Agendas21.q4cdn.com/513962416/files/doc_presentations/2-5-15... · 2016-09-06 · Presentation2 ! ArgusAmericasLPG&Summit&1&Miami& February&5th,2015&! TedYoung,CFO! 2 Disclaimer Forward-Looking

www.dorianlpg.com