agendas21.q4cdn.com/513962416/files/doc_presentations/2-5-15... · 2016-09-06 · presentation2 !...
TRANSCRIPT
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Agenda
Page
[ C L I E N T N A M E ]
Presentation2
Argus Americas LPG Summit -‐ Miami
February 5th, 2015
Ted Young, CFO
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Disclaimer
Forward-Looking Statements
This Presentation contains certain forward-looking statements relating to the business, future financial performance and results of the Company and/or the industry in which it operates. In particular, this Presentation contains forward-looking statements such as those with respect to cost of construction of the Company’s newbuildings and timing of their delivery, values of the assets of the Company and the potential future revenue and EBITDA these assets may yield under current or future contracts, the potential future revenues and cash flows of the Company, the potential future demand and market for the Company’s assets and the Company’s equity and debt financing requirements and its ability to obtain financing in a timely manner and at favorable terms. Forward-looking statements concern future circumstances and results and other statements that are not historical facts, sometimes identified by the words “believes”, “expects”, “predicts”, “intends”, “projects”, “plans”, “estimates”, “aims”, “foresees”, “anticipates”, “targets”, and similar expressions. The forward-looking statements contained in this Presentation, including assumptions, opinions and views of the Company or cited from third party sources, are solely opinions and forecasts which are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual events to differ materially from any anticipated development. Potential investors are expressly advised that financial projections, such as the revenue and cash flow projections contained herein, cannot be used as reliable indicators of future revenues or cash flows. Neither the Company, nor any of their parent or subsidiary undertakings or any such person’s officers or employees provides any assurance that the assumptions underlying such forward-looking statements are free from errors nor does any of them accept any responsibility for the future accuracy of the opinions expressed in this Presentation or the actual occurrence of the forecasted developments. No obligation is assumed to update any forward-looking statements or to conform these forward-looking statements to our actual results.
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Investment Highlights Largest ECO VLGC fleet, VLGCs represent critical link in the LPG supply chain
Fleet 3 Modern VLGCs, 3 ECO VLGCs, 1 pressurized LPG carrier 16 ECO VLGCs (Delivering Q2’15 – Q1’16)
Management Fully Integrated, In-house Commercial & Technical management
Chartering strategy Balanced mix of time charters and spot exposure, targeting high quality counterparties
Key Counterparties
Global presence Stamford, CT (Headquarters), London, UK and Piraeus, Greece
Entry into LPG 2002
Overview:
VLGC Vessel Count
6
20 22
Current Fleet End 2015 Feb-16
Average Age (Years)
+14
+2
End of 2014 End of 2015
3.6 1.6
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Trading & Logistics in the International Market
Emerging Demand Markets for LPG
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Growing Markets for LPG
US Virgin Islands
South Africa
India
China
Thailand
Indonesia
Turkey
Brazil
Mauritius
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Petrochemical Sector
Propane Dehydrogena5on Plants
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Surge in Chinese PDH adding to Global Demand
Note: Propylene production capacity to VLGC Equivalents of Propane demand: 1 tonne of propylene yields 1.18 tonnes of propane; 1 VLGC equivalent is 44,000 tonnes of propane Source: ICIS, Poten & Partners, CNBC.com; 4/10/14, “Riding shale boom, US to become major LPG supplier to China”
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56
91
123
150 164
235
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 All Planned
New Cumulative Chinese PDH Propane Feedstock
New Cumulative Chinese PDH Propylene Production
Propylene Capacity
(000 tonnes)
VLGC Equivalents
Commenced & Planned Chinese PDH Projects Propane Feedstock Required
n PDH importers require high purity propane, best sourced from the US or Middle East
n It is estimated that total demand from PDH plants in 2015 will be about 2 million tonnes
n China is expected to reduce its reliance on imported polypropylene, which currently accounts for approximately 30% of its demand
n There are currently four Chinese PDH plants in operation
n Sinopec, Tianjin Bohai, Oriental Energy, Fujain Meide, and Shaoxing Sanyuan Petrochemical have all signed long term supply contracts for US LPG
Project
Estimated annual total propane required (kta)
Operational Main Application
Tianjin Bohai 790 Yes, 2013 Propylene derivative, Acrylic acid etc.
Zhejiang Satelite 540 Yes, 2014 Propylene derivative, Acrylic acid etc.
Sanyuan PC Shaoxing 540 Yes, 2014 Polypropylene
Ningbo Haiyue 720 Yes, 2014 Propylene derivative, Acrylic acid etc.
Wanhua Chem 900 Expected 2015
Propylene derivative, Acrylic acid etc.
ZYPC 792 Expected 2015 Polypropylene
Fujain PC 792 Expected 2016 Polypropylene
Hebei Haiwei 600 Expected 2016 Polypropylene
Ningbo Fortune Oriental 792 Beyond 2016 Polypropylene
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Retail Markets
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“Peak Shaving” strategies – Allow users to supplement natural gas for LPG to off set high prices during times of peak demand
Japanese power companies have recently considered supplementing larger percentages of LNG with LPG in power generation due to recent drop In price
SNG blending systems can be implemented in more remote geographies to quickly convert coal and oil powered power plants to LPG
Ideal for customers looking to transition to natural gas but can not wait for infrastructure or supply but wish to convert coal or oil fired generators now
LPG as a bridge fuel to Natural Gas
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§ Retail demand has increased overall by 1.5mm tons from 2009 to 2014
§ Newly expanded import terminals could spur more growth
§ Although the 7 year government subsidy was dropped in Dec 2014, the decline in interna5onal prices has supported retail demand
Thailand & Indonesia
§ Retail demand from the residen5al and commercial sector has increased 110% from 2009 to 2014
§ 2007 Government began ini5a5ve to replace kerosene for cooking with LPG
§ 2009 – 2.9mm tons
§ 2013 – 5.6mm tons
Indonesia Thailand
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§ 2013-‐2014: Total demand growth for LPG in India increased abt. 18.5%
§ 2010-‐2014: Government has proac5vely pushed popula5on away from tradi5onal hea5ng/cooking methods by subsidizing LPG
§ 2014: The cap on subsidized cylinders per household was liWed from 9 to 12
§ Demand expected to increase within residen5al and commercial sector
India
Indian LPG Retail Demand
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Brazil Turkey
§ Brazil is another example of successful government ini5a5ve to switch from tradi5onal hea5ng and cooking fuels to LPG
§ Growth forecasted to increase from 2% to around 2.5% in 2018 within the residen5al/commercial sector (higher than expected GDP growth)
§ Turkey’s LPG demand growth has historically been dominated by autogas demand
§ Autogas demand expected to increase, lower price should
facilitate higher rate
§ Large bulk demand increased substan5aly in 2013 with the conversion of Petkim to be able to crack butane with Naphtha
§ Bayegan propane dehydrogena5on plant should be constructred by 2017
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Power Genera5on
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The Future: Virgin Islands Conversion Project with Vitol
§ Vitol is leading the transforma5on of the
power sector in the US Virgin Islands
§ Upon comple5on of the $150 MM project,
Virgin Island power consumers can expect
savings of up to 30%
§ Current Residen5al prices: 39 cents/KW
hour vs. 51 cents in Sep. 2014
§ By July, both St. Thomas and St Croix will
derive 100% of their electricity needs from
propane
§ Green house gas emissions slated to decline
20%
St Croix Conversion
St Thomas Conversion
- VLGCS will deliver the cargo and perform STS to pressure vessels every 3 days (w/ two designated pressure vessels) for discharge at the small berth
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Key Factors Favoring LPG Adoption for Power Generation and Retail Consumption
By-product of natural gas and oil production
Source: ExceptionalEnergy.com
Economic Environmental
ü Established produc5on hubs
ü Global supply base
ü Mari5me and land transport op5ons
ü Price compe55ve product
ü Low cost “last mile” infrastructure
ü Lower greenhouse gas emissions
ü 20% less CO2 than hea5ng oil
ü 50% less CO2 than coal
ü Safe fuel source
ü Avoids harmful and dangerous waste
LPG should be the fuel of choice for emerging economies
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www.dorianlpg.com