7/31/2015 AftertheNuclearDeal,aRegionRecalibrates|Stratfor

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After the Nuclear Deal, a Region RecalibratesAnalysis JULY28,2015|09:15GMT Print TextSize

SummaryEditor'sNote:ThisisthefirstinstallmentofanoccasionalseriesontheevolvingfortunesoftheMiddleEastthatStratforwillbebuildinguponperiodically.

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7/31/2015 AftertheNuclearDeal,aRegionRecalibrates|Stratfor

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ThesixworldpowersandIranhavecometoanagreementaboutthecurbingofIran'snuclearprogram.Butitwouldbeamistaketoassumethatthisagreementwillresultinanimmediate,orevenshortterm,decreaseinviolenceorcompetitionamongtheMiddleEast'sstrongestpowers.Infact,theoppositewillbethecase.Iranwilluseitsnewfoundinternationallegitimacytoattempttorealizeitsambitionstobecometheregionalhegemon.Turkey,SaudiArabia,Egypt,andahostofsmallcountriesandevensmallerreligiousandethnicgroupswillallcompeteandattimesalignforinfluence.

AnalysisThoughreamsofbureaucraticredtaperemaintobecutinthecomingmonths,itseemslikelythatthejointaccordwillpasstheU.N.SecurityCouncil.Furthermore,itwillbeextremelydifficultforbothhousesoftheU.S.CongresstomusterthetwothirdsvotesnecessarytopreventtheliftingofcertainU.S.sanctionsleviedagainsttheIslamicRepublic.NormalizationwiththeWestwillgiveIranthechancetoimproveitseconomyandrecruitforeigninvestment,andwillalsoopenuppotentialrelationshipsthatsanctionspreventedfromdeveloping.ProxybattlesanddiplomaticrapprochementsontheperipheryoftheMiddleEastwillcontinueapace,butIran'sprimaryfocuswillbeonBaghdad.ControlofIraqisthenecessaryconditionforIranprojectingforceintheMiddleEast,whereaslackofcontrolor,worse,controlofIraqbyanotheroutsidepower,wouldconstituteadirectthreat.

Ambitions of Other Powers

ButIranwillhavetocontendwithotherregionalpowers.Turkey,SaudiArabiaandEgyptaretheotherheavyweightsinthebalanceofpowertheUnitedStatesseekstocreateintheMiddleEast.SaudiArabiahopestoleadabroadSunniArabcoalitionagainstIran.EgypthasmuchincommonwithSaudiArabia,butitalsohasitsownambitionsandwillbristleattakingajuniorrole.SaudiArabia'sandEgypt'sinterestswillcoincidemostofthetime,butthepartnershipwillnotbewithoutcompetition.Egypt'sdomesticconcerns,however,willlimithowsuccessfullyCairocanplaythisgame.

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Turkey,likeIran,isanonArabpowerseekingtodominatetheregion,andArabmemoriesoftheOttomanEmpirearenotexactlyrosy.Turkey'srelationshipwithIranisnotasantagonisticasthatofmajorSunniArabpowers:Turkeyimported26percentofitsoilfromIranin2014andisoneofthebiggestmarketsforIraniannaturalgas.ButTurkeyisalsoaSunnipower,andofthethreeSunniheavyweights,itisthemostcapableandequippedtopreventIranfromrealizingitsobjectives.TurkeyviewstheMiddleEastasitssphereofinfluenceandwillnotlookkindlyonanycountry,whetherIranorSaudiArabia,encroachingonitsambitions.

ThemostvociferouscriticoftheIrannucleardealhasbeenIsrael.TheIrandealforIsraelisthefinalpunctuationmarkofaU.S.initiatedrealignmentoftherelationshipwithIsrael.TheIrandealisobviouslynotinIsrael'sinterests,butitisnotthecatastropheIsraeliPrimeMinisterBenjaminNetanyahuismakingitouttobe.Moreover,itilluminatessturdybedrockuponwhichthecloserelationshipbetweenIsraelandtheUnitedStateswillcontinuetorest.WithIranfreedfrompariahstatus,IsraelrepresentstheUnitedStates'insurancepolicyforthecomplicatedgameitisplayingshoulddevelopmentsnotproceedaccordingtoplan.Israelmaybeforcedtothefrontlinesofteninthecomingyears,butitwillbeabletoleanonWashingtonshoulddireneedsbeyonditscontrolarise.

Long-Term vs. Short-Term Forecasts

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Stratfor'slongtermforecastisthatifone'sdefaultunitofmeasurementfortimeisindecades,thenTurkeywillbecomethepreeminentpowerintheMiddleEast.Thereareagreatmanypiecesontheboardthatmustbesettledfirst,mostimportantinIraqandSyria,butalsoinLebanonandYemen.Israelhasaroletoplayinthatprocess,ensuringthatIrancannotsecurethetypeofanchoronthecoastoftheLevantthatwouldinsulateitfromtheTurkishrise.TheUnitedStates,however,doesnotwantanyonepowertobecometoodominant,andIsraelwillcontinuetoproveintegraltoU.S.aimsbyalsopreventingTurkeyfrombeingabletoclaimtheregionasitsownpersonalsphereofinfluence.

Ifthetimescaleisreducedtoweeksandmonths,however,thefutureismuchmoreuncertaintheconflictsinIraqand,toalesserextent,Syriawillbethecentralissuesthatdefinetheregion.IranwillseektoempoweritsShiitealliesinIraq,anditsabilitytomeaningfullyprojectinfluencebeyondproxiesintheregionwilldependonitssuccess.TheSaudisandEgyptianswillempowerIraqiSunnistocounterIran'sallies.TheymayalsoflirtwithincreasingsupporttoKurdishfactions,inparttoprovideanArabcounterweighttoIran'srelativelyclosetiestoKurdishgroupsandtogiveAnkaraareasontothinktwiceaboutpursuingitsinterestswithoutregardtoRiyadhandCairo.TehranwilllookforweakpointsintheGulfmonarchiesRiyadhandCairowillrespondbyattemptingtoforgea

regional,ArabcoalitiontocombatIran.AllofthevariouspowerswillviewtheIslamicStateasamenace,andunexpectedtemporaryfellowshipstorootoutthegroup'sstrongholdswillmaterializeconcurrentlywithregionalcompetition.UnlesstheIslamicStateisabletoformmorepragmaticrelationshipswithneighborsratherthanlashoutatwhatitseesasauniversalepidemicofblasphemy,itwillbecrippledbyabroader,regionwidepushtoeliminateit.

ThesedynamicsarewhatwillshapetheMiddleEastnowthattheIrannucleardealhasfinallybeensignedandwillbethefocalpointofthefuturepiecestiedtothisseries.ThebreakdownofgovernmentssuchasthoseinIraqandSyriacreatedchaosintheregion'sheart,andoutofthedisordersprangmultiplesmallgroupswithvariousideologies.ThestakesfortheMiddleEast'smajorpowers,Ankara,Cairo,RiyadhandTehran,havebeenraised,andeachwillattempttoshapethedevelopmentoftheregionbyinsertingitselfintothevacuumsthathavebeencreatedbygeneralupheaval.Smallercountriesandsmallethnicorreligiousgroupswillbecaughtinthecrossfireandforcedtobalanceoldloyaltieswithnewrealities.ConflictintheMiddleEastwillstillappearchaotic,butmoreandmoreitwillhaveadeeperrationale.Ratherthanmerelyusingproxiestowageonecentralfreeforall,variousopponentswillbeplayingamanysidedgameofchess,deliberatelymovingtheirpawnsintoformation,jockeyingforpositionintheregion'scenterandreadyingforthelargerbattlesthatwilleventuallycome.Iran'sreconciliationwiththeWesthasdilutedpowerintheregion.TheUnitedStateswillnolongerintervenewithitsdirect,forcefulapproachofthepast,andIran'simprovingrelationshipwiththeWestwillenableittobettercompetewithcountriessuchasSaudiArabiaandTurkey.Theregion'sheavyweightsnowhavesimilarstrengthbutdifferentambitions.Theresultwillbeseveralrecalibrationsthatwillinvolvemorefighting,morebattlingproxiesandstrangetemporaryalliances.Asincenturiespast,thepotentialriseofaShiitepowerwillbindtogethertheSunniArabworld,andTurkeyslowly,deliberately,attimesunwillinglywillbedrawnintomaintainingstabilityinthelandssouthofAnatolia.

Conversation: Shifting Alliances inthe Middle East

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