AFRICA’S CHANGING FARM STRUCTURE AND THE EMPLOYMENT CHALLENGE

T.S. Jayne, J. Chamberlin, D. Headey, A. Chapoto, M. Muyanga, N. Sitko

Photo: Christiaensen and Demery (2007)

Presentation at IFPRI Headquarters, Washington, DC, September 4, 2014

62% < 25 years old

Age pyramids, rural SSA, 2015

[0-4]

[5-9]

[10-14]

[15-19]

[20-24]

[25-29]

[30-34]

[35-39]

[40-44]

[45-49]

[50-54]

[55-59]

[60-64]

[65-69]

[70-74]

[75-79]

[80+]

-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

Rural

Male Female

Source: UN Pop Council, 2013

Conclusion 1

Africa’s arable land is highly concentrated,

both between and within countries

Non-forested unutilized land1

(million ha)Proportion Cumulative

Proportion

DRC 84.8 46.5% 46.5%Angola 18.9 10.4% 56.9%Congo 12.9 7.1% 63.9%Zambia 10.8 5.9% 69.9%Cameroon 10.5 5.7% 75.6%Mozambique 9.0 4.9% 80.5%CAR 7.1 3.9% 84.4%Gabon 6.5 3.6% 88.0%Sudan 5.8 3.2% 91.2%

Rest of Africa (n=45) 8.8% 100.0%

Nine countries contain 90% of Africa’s unutilized arable land

Clustering of rural populations: Zambia

Clustering of rural populations: Kenya

Conclusion 2

Rapid rise of medium-scale farmers (5-100 ha)

Table 2: Changes in farm structure among small- and medium-scale farmers in Zambia (2009 - 2012)

Landholding size Category

Number of farms % change

(2001-2012)

% of total farmland

Share of landholding

2001* 2009 2012 2009 2012 cultivated (2012)

0 – 2 ha 638,118 916,787 748,771 17.3% 24.1% 16.2% 91.2%

2 – 5 ha 159,039 366,628 418,544 163.2% 33.8% 31.7% 66.4%

5 – 10 ha 20,832 110,436 165,129 692.6% 20.3% 25.0% 49.5%

10 – 20 ha 2,352 35,898 53,454 2272.7% 12.3% 15.0% 36.7%

20 – 100 ha -- 9,030 13,839 53.3%** 9.5% 12.0% 10.9%

Total 820,341 1,438,779 1,399,737 70.6% 100.0% 100.0%

Source: Ministry of Agriculture Crop Forecast Surveys, 2009, 2012. *2001 figures are land under cultivation. ** Growth rate computed from 2009-2012 only. “na” means not available.

Table 2: Changes in farm structure among small- and medium-scale farmers in Zambia (2009 - 2012)

Landholding size Category

Number of farms % change

(2001-2012)

% of total farmland

Share of landholding

2001* 2009 2012 2009 2012 cultivated (2012)

0 – 2 ha 638,118 916,787 748,771 17.3% 24.1% 16.2% 91.2%

2 – 5 ha 159,039 366,628 418,544 163.2% 33.8% 31.7% 66.4%

5 – 10 ha 20,832 110,436 165,129 692.6% 20.3% 25.0% 49.5%

10 – 20 ha 2,352 35,898 53,454 2272.7% 12.3% 15.0% 36.7%

20 – 100 ha -- 9,030 13,839 53.3%** 9.5% 12.0% 10.9%

Total 820,341 1,438,779 1,399,737 70.6% 100.0% 100.0%

Source: Ministry of Agriculture Crop Forecast Surveys, 2009, 2012. *2001 figures are land under cultivation. ** Growth rate computed from 2009-2012 only. “na” means not available.

Table 2: Changes in farm structure among small- and medium-scale farmers in Zambia (2009 - 2012)

Landholding size Category

Number of farms % change

(2001-2012)

% of total farmland

Share of landholding

2001* 2009 2012 2009 2012 cultivated (2012)

0 – 2 ha 638,118 916,787 748,771 17.3% 24.1% 16.2% 91.2%

2 – 5 ha 159,039 366,628 418,544 163.2% 33.8% 31.7% 66.4%

5 – 10 ha 20,832 110,436 165,129 692.6% 20.3% 25.0% 49.5%

10 – 20 ha 2,352 35,898 53,454 2272.7% 12.3% 15.0% 36.7%

20 – 100 ha -- 9,030 13,839 53.3%** 9.5% 12.0% 10.9%

Total 820,341 1,438,779 1,399,737 70.6% 100.0% 100.0%

Source: Ministry of Agriculture Crop Forecast Surveys, 2009, 2012. *2001 figures are land under cultivation. ** Growth rate computed from 2009-2012 only. “na” means not available.

Crop sales by farm size, Zambia

2000/1

2001/2

2002/3

2003/4

2004/5

2005/6

2006/7

2007/8

2008/9

2009/10

2010/11

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

0-0.99 ha1-1.99 ha2-4.99 ha5+ haLinear (5+ ha)

Season

Mea

n sa

les

(201

1 Zm

k ‘0

00s

pric

es)

11

Source: MACO CFS 2000/1 to 2010/11 and authors’ computations

Crop sales by farm size, Zambia

2000/1

2001/2

2002/3

2003/4

2004/5

2005/6

2006/7

2007/8

2008/9

2009/10

2010/11

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

0-0.99 ha1-1.99 ha2-4.99 ha5+ haLinear (5+ ha)

Season

Mea

n sa

les

(201

1 Zm

k ‘0

00s

pric

es)

12

Source: MACO CFS 2000/1 to 2010/11 and authors’ computations

Largest smallholder farms (9%) consistently doing better

Conclusion 3

Land controlled by MS farms exceeds

that of LS (foreign + domestic

combined)

More land cultivated/owned by MS than by large-scale, including LS foreign investors

Large scale (foreign+domestic)

Medium scale (5-100 ha)

Million hectares

Ghana (cultivated) 3.08 4.21

Kenya (cultivated) 0.69 0.84

Zambia (owned) 2.11 2.47

Characteristics of medium-scale farmers

• In most countries:• Urban-based• Primary employment = salaried job• Relatively highly educated• Primarily men

• In central / northern Ghana:• Most started out as small-scale farmers scaled-up• Acquired land from customary authorities• Relatively land-abundant environment

Conclusion 4

Medium-scale farmers control more land

than small-scale farmers (0-5 ha) in

Zambia and most likely in Ghana as well

Large scale Medium-scale (5-100 ha)

Small-scale (0-5 ha)

Total land controlled

Million hectares

Ghana (2005) 3.08 4.21 5.08 = 12.37

Kenya (2006) 0.69 0.84 2.63 = 4.16

Zambia (2012) 2.11 2.47 2.09 = 6.67

Large scale

Medium-scale

(5-100 ha)

Small-scale

(0-5 ha)

Total land controlled

PAC remaining (arable +

grasslands)

Million hectares

Ghana 3.08 4.21 5.08 = 12.37 3.56

Kenya 0.69 0.84 2.63 = 4.16 1.01

Zambia 2.11 2.47 2.09 = 6.67 3.35

Conclusion 5

The amount of land available for cropland

expansion (PAC) is between 20-35% of

total stock of arable land

Conclusion 5: PAC is sizeable but small in relation to land already utilized in Kenya and Ghana

PAC / already utilized + PAC

Including forest land Excluding forest land

Ghana (cultivated) 26.8% 22.4%

Kenya (cultivated) 21.5% 19.5%

Zambia (owned) 43.1% 33.4%

Conclusion 6

Rising concentration of

landholdings

Gini coefficients of landholding

Period Movement in Gini coefficient:

Ghana (cult. area) 1992 2005 0.54 0.65

Kenya (cult. area) 1994 2006 0.51 0.55

Zambia (landholding) 2001 2012 0.42 0.49

Conclusions

1. Rate of growth of medium-scale farms (MS: 5-100 ha) 10 times faster than small-scale (SS: 0-5 ha) farms

2. Despite major focus on large-scale “land grabs”, more farm land is owned by MS farmers than by LS farms

3. Land controlled by MS farmers > that of SS farmers (0-5 ha) in at least 1 of the 3 countries examined (probably 2/3 by 2014)

4. Mean farm size rising in some countries even while holdings are gradually shrinking for most farm hhs

5. Rising Gini coefficients over time in landholdings

6. Potentially available cropland as % of total utilized + unutilized arable land: ranges from 43.1% (Zambia) to 21.5% (Kenya)

Policy questions

1. Africa is enjoying 5% annual ag growth rates – who is driving this growth?

2. Are ag/employment/poverty reduction strategies compatible with countries’ land policies?

3. Will the rate of non-farm job growth depend on how inclusive agricultural growth is (multipliers)?

4. Will a commitment to inclusive agricultural development require area expansion and a change in land allocation policies?

Stylized fact:

A stylized fact is often a broad generalization that summarizes some complicated statistical relationship, which although essentially true, may have inaccuracies in the detail.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stylized_fact