africa riskview - african risk capacity · the march 2016 rains; however, the country is facing a...
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The Africa RiskView Bulletin is a monthly publication by the African Risk Capacity (ARC). ARC is a Specialised Agency of the African Union designed to improve the capacity of AU Member States to manage natural disaster risk, adapt to climate change and protect food insecure populations. ARC relies on Africa RiskView, a drought modelling platform that uses satel-lite-based rainfall information to estimate the costs of responding to a drought. These modelled response costs are the un-derlying basis of the insurance policies issued by the ARC Insurance Company Limited, the financial affiliate of the ARC Agency, which pools risk across the continent.
For more information visit our website: www.africanriskcapacity.org
Africa RiskView MONTHLY BULLETIN | APRIL 2016
Rainfall
During the month of March 2016, seasonal rains continued in
Southern and Central Africa. The rainy season also started in East
Africa, as well as in the southern parts of West Africa. Countries
located in the Gulf of Guinea, including Nigeria, Benin, Togo,
Ghana, Ivory Coast and Liberia, received above average rains
(compared to the 2001-15 average), starting in mid-March. Con-
versely, the rains in East Africa were below the 2001-15 average,
due to poor rainfall in mid to late March in eastern Uganda, Ken-
ya, Somalia and southern Ethiopia. In Southern Africa, the March
rains were above the long-term average in most countries, with
the exception of western Namibia, south-western South Africa
and northern Malawi. Above average rains were received in most
parts of the region during the first two dekads of the month (1-20
March), followed by below average rains in the southern and
western areas (Angola, Namibia, Botswana and South Africa) and
in Malawi during the third dekad (21-31 March).
The rainfall patterns since October 2015 suggest that Southern
Africa experienced extreme dryness during the first half of the
2015/16 rainy season. Countries in the southern parts of the
region, including South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe and southern
Mozambique received less than 70% of normal rainfall between
October and December 2015. The seasonal rains improved in the
second half of the season, with above average rainfall in most
areas with the exception of western Namibia, southern Mozam-
bique and coastal areas of south-western Madagascar. However,
it is unclear to what extent these above normal rains have been
able to compensate for the early season dryness in most areas,
given that they were mainly received from late February, which
might have come too late for some areas.
Drought
Malawi: The agricultural season in Malawi lasts from November
to the end of May. While Malawi was not as badly affected by the
poor start of the rainy season as other countries in the region, it
experienced below normal rainfall during the first months of the
season, particularly in the central and southern parts of the coun-
Rainfall:
Improved rainfall in March 2016 has partially compensated the dry conditions recorded during the first half of the 2015/16 rainy season in Southern Africa in some areas.
In East Africa, the long rains season has started with a slightly below average performance in March 2016, however rainfall is expected to pick up in intensity between April and June.
Drought:
In Malawi, the water requirements for the reference crop as of end-March are only partially satisfied in the central and south-ern parts of the country; however Africa RiskView and other rainfall data sources suggest that there has been an improve-ment in the situation on the ground in many areas since earlier in the season due to good rainfall from late February onwards.
Affected Populations:
Africa RiskView’s end-of-season projection for Malawi has de-creased compared to the previous month, due to the impact of the March 2016 rains; however, the country is facing a difficult food security situation, due to the compounding effect of the poor 2014/15 season, and the delayed start of the 2015/16 rains, which has extended the peak lean season.
ARC Risk Pool:
7 countries are participating in the 2015/16 ARC Risk Pool (The Gambia, Kenya, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Niger and Senegal).
Two countries currently have live contracts: Malawi and Ken-ya, where the 2016 long rains have just started.
Highlights:
For more information visit our website: www.africanriskcapacity.org For more information visit our website: www.africanriskcapacity.org
try. Nonetheless, Africa RiskView suggests that sowing conditions
were reached throughout the country between late November
and mid-December – slightly later than normal in most of central
and southern Malawi. Particularly in areas where sowing was
delayed, the current end-of-season WRSI projection indicates that
the water requirements of the reference crop (maize) are unlikely
to be fully satisfied by the end of the season in May. In the north-
ern parts of the country, Africa RiskView estimates that the water
requirements will be satisfied, should the April-May rains be in
line with the average of the rains between 2001 and 2015. Com-
pared to the benchmark set by the country as an indicator for
normal conditions (the median of the previous 5 years), the cur-
rent end-of-season WRSI projection suggests that drier than
normal conditions are likely to affect central Malawi, as well as
the extreme south of the country.1 FEWS NET’s end-of-season
WRSI projection depicts a similar picture for southern Malawi, but
is slightly more optimistic about the situation in the central parts
of the country. Other remote sensing data also confirms Africa
RiskView’s estimates, such as FAO’s Agricultural Stress Index (ASI),
which suggests that four districts in central and southern Malawi
are likely to experience moderate drought conditions (more than
25% of cropped areas affected), while the situation is better in the
rest of the country. This constitutes a significant improvement in
the situation compared to the previous month, when drought
conditions were estimated to affect over 40% of cropped areas in
twelve districts in central and southern Malawi, according to the
ASI. The ARC Secretariat is working closely with the Government
of Malawi and technical partners to validate the customisation of
the drought index used by Africa RiskView.
Kenya: In the context of its participation in the ARC Risk Pool in
2015/16, Kenya insured the two rainy seasons in its arid and semi-
arid lands (ASAL). Satellite data indicates that the 2016 long rains
season is experiencing a slightly delayed start, with lower than
average rains in Kenya’s pastoral areas in March 2016. However,
the bulk of the rains is normally received between April and June.
More accurate projections will be possible as soon as the seasonal
rains pick up in intensity.
Affected Populations
Malawi: Given the improved rains in March, which have poten-
tially compensated somewhat for the early season dryness in
areas where the rainfall season started late, Africa RiskView’s
population affected projections for Malawi have decreased from
last month, when the model estimated that around 1 million
people could have been affected by drought conditions at the end
of the 2015/16 agricultural season. However, it is important to
note that Malawi is currently experiencing a critical food security
situation due to the poor performance of the 2014/15 agricultural
season, which affected nearly 3 million people according to Africa
RiskView and vulnerability assessments conducted on the ground,
as well as its compounding effects (low cereal stocks, high food
prices etc.). Moreover, the late start of the 2015/16 season has
reduced income from agricultural labour, and is likely to result in
an extension of the peak lean season due to delayed harvests,
particularly in the central and southern parts of the country. The
compounding effect of the previous season is also likely to have
reduced the resilience levels of vulnerable households.
Kenya: Given that the 2016 long rains have just started, it is
Africa RiskView MONTHLY BULLETIN | APRIL 2016
Rainfall compared to 2001-14 average in mm, Southern Africa, Mar 2016 (RFE2)
Rainfall in % of 2001-15 average, Southern Africa, Jan-Mar 2016 (RFE2)
End-of-season WRSI projection, Malawi, 2015/16 agricultural season
1) Note that the poor performance of the 2014/15 season has contributed to lowering this benchmark.
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currently too early to make an accurate projection of the potential
seasonal outcomes in Kenya’s pastoral areas. More accurate
projections will be possible as the season progresses.
Update on the ARC Risk Pool
Currently, seven countries form the 2015/16 ARC Risk Pool. These
include three new countries that joined in 2015 (The Gambia,
Malawi and Mali), in addition to the four members of the first ARC
Risk Pool (Kenya, Mauritania, Niger and Senegal).
In the ongoing ARC Risk Pool, no payouts by the ARC Insurance
Company Limited have been triggered yet given the overall good
performance of the 2015 agricultural season in West Africa and
the good 2015/16 short rains season in Kenya, which did not
trigger a payout either. For the ongoing agricultural season in
Malawi, despite problems in some areas, the good rains from late
February onwards have reduced the likelihood of a payout. Final-
ly, in Kenya, which has insured both its 2015/16 short rains season
and the 2016 long rains season in its ASAL, the 2016 long rains
have just started. More accurate projections will be possible as
the season progresses.
In addition to the countries already participating in the ARC Risk
Pool, the ARC Secretariat is working with other countries exposed
to drought events in view of their potential participation in the
2016/17 ARC Risk Pool. The participation of new countries usually
follows an engagement process of 9 to 12 months which involves
the customisation of Africa RiskView by in-country technical ex-
perts with support from the ARC Secretariat, the definition of an
Operations Plans that outlines the assistance to be provided to
vulnerable populations in the case of a payout by the ARC Insur-
ance Company Limited, as well as the creation of structures and
processes that allow for the quick disbursement of the payouts,
and the activation of the pre-defined Operation Plans.
Africa RiskView MONTHLY BULLETIN | APRIL 2016
For more information visit our website: www.africanriskcapacity.org
The African Risk Capacity (ARC) is a special-
ised agency of the African Union designed
to improve the capacity of AU Member
States to manage natural disaster risk,
adapt to climate change and protect food
insecure populations.
Africa RiskView is the technical engine of
ARC. The software uses satellite-based rain-
fall information to estimate the costs of
responding to a drought, which triggers a
corresponding insurance payout.
ARC Insurance Company Limited is the fi-
nancial affiliate of the ARC Agency, which
pools risk across the continent through issu-
ing insurance policies to participating coun-
tries.
About ARC:
Disclaimer: The data and information contained in this bulletin have been developed for the purposes of, and using the methodology of, Af rica RiskView and the African Risk Capacity Group. The data in this bulletin is provided to the public for information purposes only, and neither the ARC Agency, its affiliates nor each of their respective officers, directors, employees and agents make any representation or warranty regarding the fitness of the data and information for any particular purpose. In no event shall the ARC Agency, its affiliates nor each of their respective officers, directors, em-ployees and agents be held liable with respect to any subject matter presented here. Payouts under insurance policies issued by ARC Insurance Company Limited are calculated using a stand-alone version of Africa RiskView, the results of which can differ from those presented here.
Note on Africa RiskView’s Methodology:
Rainfall: Africa RiskView uses
various satellite rainfall da-
tasets to track the progression
of rainy seasons in Africa. Coun-
tries intending to participate in
the ARC Risk Pool are required
to customise the rainfall com-
ponent by selecting the dataset
which corresponds the best to
the actual rainfall measured on
the ground.
Drought: Africa RiskView uses
the Water Requirements Satis-
faction Index (WRSI) as an indi-
cator for drought. The WRSI is
an index developed by the Food
and Agriculture Organisation of
the United Nations (FAO),
which, based on satellite rain-
fall estimates, calculates wheth-
er a particular crop is getting
the amount of water it needs at
different stages of its develop-
ment. To maximise the accura-
cy of Africa RiskView, countries
intending to take out insurance
customise the software’s pa-
rameters to reflect the realities
on the ground.
Affected Populations: Based on
the WRSI calculations, Africa
RiskView estimates the number
of people potentially affected
by drought for each country
participating in the insurance
pool. As part of the in-country
customisation process, vulnera-
bility profiles are developed at
the sub-national level for each
country, which define the po-
tential impact of a drought on
the population living in a spe-
cific area.
Response Costs: In a fourth
and final step, Africa RiskView
converts the numbers of affect-
ed people into response costs.
For countries participating in
the insurance pool these na-
tional response costs are the
underlying basis of the insur-
ance policies. Payouts will be
triggered from the ARC Insur-
ance Company Limited to coun-
tries where the estimated re-
sponse cost at the end of the
season exceeds a pre-defined
threshold specified in the insur-
ance contracts.
Africa RiskView MONTHLY BULLETIN | APRIL 2016