advanced research at the nexus of energy, water, and food · beyond climate and carbon - food....
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Advanced Research at the Nexus of Energy, Water, and Food
David M. Babson, Ph.D. │Twitter: @realDavidBabsonProgram Director
Advanced Research Projects Agency – Energy
Princeton Andlinger Center Annual MeetingPrinceton University│ Princeton, NJ
November 8, 2019
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Who is ARPA-E?
2
Mission
Overcome long-term and high-risktechnological barriers in the development of transformative technologies …
Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy
… that ensure U.S. national security,
technology leadership, and economic prosperity
Moonshot Targets
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What problems are we trying to solve?
3November 21, 2019
Resilient energy
infrastructure
Affordable, sustainable
energy
U.S. economic
development
Leadership in science and technology
Climate change
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CHARGES
NODES
GENIGRIDS
HEATS
IONICSGRID DATA
ARPA-E Program PortfolioELECTRICITY
GENERATION & DELIVERY
ALPHA FOCUS
REBELS
GENSETS MOSAIC
IMPACCTSOLAR ADEPT
RANGE
AMPED BEESTELECTROFUELS
MOVE
REMOTE
PETRO
TERRA
TRANSNETNEXTCAR
REFUEL
TRANSPORTATION
Activ
e
EFFICIENCY
DELTA
SHIELD
METALS
MONITOR ARID
ROOTS
ADEPTBEETIT REACT
PNDIODES
ENLITENED
SWITCHES
CIRCUITS MARINER
4
OPEN 2009, 2012, 2015 & 2018 Solicitations Complement Focused Programs
SENSORAl
umni
INTEGRATE
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ARPA-E Impact Indicators
5As of February 2018
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The context for considering the nexus of advanced energy, water, and food systems
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All paths to 20 C go through zero
7National Academy of Sciences. Negative Emissions Technologies and Reliable Sequestration:A Research Agenda. 2019. p. 3
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Beyond climate and carbon - FOOD
Population Affluence
An estimated 109 ha of new land will be required to feed global population in 2050
Land
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Anticipated food productivity gap
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Rapid growth of a massive carbon removal industry
10
Carbon Removal Capacity
210020 GT-scale CDR
2020MT-
scale CDR
2030GT-
scale CDR
CDR = carbon dioxide removal
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Just how much is 20 gigatons?
11
20 GT/yr
US Bureau of Transportation Statistics, USGS National Minerals Information Center
Cement4 GT/yr
Iron ore3.1 GT/yr
US Pipelines3 GT/yr
US Trucking9.8 GT/yr
× 55,000(every year)
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Environmental Drivers for Innovation
12Insert Presentation NameNovember 21, 2019
Carbon / GHG Emissions Land
Our global economy needs to be structured in a way that incentivizes not only land and carbon ‘neutrality’, but promotes becoming both carbon and land negative. In this environment the bioeconomy wins.
Water
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Simultaneously innovate in a number of areas
13November 21, 2019
GHG emissions and land sparing strategies must be widely and simultaneously deployed
Vertical Agriculture &Engineered Ecosystems
Landscape Design & Agroecology
Living fertilizers for agriculture systems
Carbon Utilization and Removal
Food – What and HowPrecision Agriculture
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Do more and make more with less land; Remove carbonThe new carbon economy refers to a prosperous, growing economy that captures and stores more carbon than it emits
BiologicalNETs
HybridNETs
EngineeredNETs
Managing to get carbon out of the economyNegative Emission Technologies (NETs)
Managing carbon in the economyCircular new carbon strategies
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A carbon-conscious economy is not a low-carbon economy as much as it will be a renewable “new” carbon economy
The low carbon economy incentivizes carbon reduction
The new carbon economy will incentivizes carbon optimization
15
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The bioeconomy concept
16
• Revenue and economic growth
• Broad spectrum of new jobs
• Rural development• Advanced technologies
and manufacturing• Reduced emissions and
Environmental Sustainability
• Export potential of technology and products
• Positive societal changes
• Investments and new infrastructure
Feedstock ProductsConversion
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TERRA & ROOTS programs leverage data to identify the best genetics for biofuel productivity
Data capture in commercial production settings is too costly;
value proposition is unclear.
Crops × Bots × Bytes
New technologies throughout the entire biomass supply chain
Feedstock Production Downstream ProcessingG x E x M
Crop Breeding
Limited upstream visibility presents a barrier to paying a premium for
sustainable feedstocks.
G x E x M x PG x E
Genetics x Environment x Management x Processing 17
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Potential New ARPAe programs under development
Models• GREET® (Greenhouse Gases,
Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation Model)
• DNDC (DeNitrification-DeCompositionAgroecosystem Model)
SENSORS• OPEN 2018• Satellites - Remote• TERRA/ROOTS
Data PlatformsFord Foundation (S-Force Impact Investing)
SMARTFARM Productivity Challenge
DIGITAL AGRICULTURE, CARBON MANAGEMENT, AND CARBON REMOVAL
ENERGY CARBON OPTIMIZED SYNTHESISFOR THE BIOECONOMY (ECOSynBio)
Leveraging low-carbon power for carbon-optimized biorefining
ECO-fermentation
Traditional fermentation
No CO2 emissions
50% more product
Enabling 100% carbon efficient conversion
NEGATIVE EMISSIONS ADVANCEDTECHNOLOGIES (NEAT)
Developing technologies to enable inexpensive and energy efficient carbon removal
BiologicalSolutions
HybridSolutions
EngineeredSolutions
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ROOTS - Soil - Water - Nutrients
TERRA - Yield - Resilience
Crop Genetic Gain
Phenotype = Genotype × Environment x Management
THE CONVERGENCE OF BIOLOGY, ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCE TO ACCELERATE BREEDING GAIN
ARPAe before me: TERRA - ROOTS Program Vision
RoboticsScalable and Reliable
AI Systems Machine Learning
High ThroughputField Data Acquisition
AgriculturePhysiology and Agronomy
Gene and Trait Associations
GeneticsMolecular Biology
SensorsAbiotic and Biotic
High ResolutionPhenotypes
DataDistributed and Secure
AnalyticsComputational Pipelines
Crop PredictionAlgorithms
Knowledge
Transportation
Energy
Resources from
Renewable
Agriculture
Rhizosphere
Observations
Optimizing
Terrestrial
Sequestration
Increased
Phenotyping +
Data Analytics
=
Increased
Genetic Gain
Tools to improve
crop nutrient
utilization and
carbon
sequestration
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SMARTFARM: Systems for Monitoring and Analytics for
Renewable Transportation Fuel from Agricultural Resources and Management
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Farm ILUC Processing T&D Combustion
Car
bon
Inte
nsity
(CI)
(g C
O2e
/MJ)
2.28 0.57
19.8
23.9
What is the significance of fuel CI in the LCFS?
71 g CO2e/MJ
Indirect Land Use Change
24.5
Established 2005 petroleum baseline96.2 g CO2e/MJ
Data from M. Wang presentation on GREET ethanol LCA at 2018 ARPA-E Workshop
Carbon intensity, corn ethanol (range of 50 – 80 g CO2e/MJ)
LCFS: Low-Carbon Fuel Standard
21
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Car
bon
Inte
nsity
(g C
O2e
/MJ)
Feedstock Only(Land Use Change not included)
N2O - Land Mgmt
CO2 - Land Mgmt
Chemicals
N Applied
Energy Use
What goes into a feedstock carbon intensity (CI) score?
Updated feedstock CI from Argonne Final Report to ARPA-E (2019): Developing a Framework for Lifecycle Analysis of Biofuels on the Farm Level
Lacking methods of quantifying field-level CI, feedstock producers are given the national average
(fuel inputs)
(nitrogen production)
(pesticides, herbicides)
(emissions resulting from management,
including input type and application, tillage,
residue cover)
g CO2eMJ
Adopt best practices (e.g. no-till, cover crops)
Improve productivity (i.e. yield per unit input)
Measure CI to
22
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-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Car
bon
Inte
nsity
(g C
O2e
/MJ)
Feedstock Only(Land Use Change not included)
How do we get to carbon negative?
Reduce feedstock production carbon
intensity (CI)Carbon NeutralCarbon
NegativeSoil
Organic Carbon**
(SOC)
**SOC not currently counted in CI
Updated feedstock CI from Argonne Final Report to ARPA-E (2019): Developing a Framework for Lifecycle Analysis of Biofuels on the Farm Level 23
Establish SOC monitoring; enable market incentives for carbon storage
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Biofuels are, by far, the largest product from the bioeconomy
Gallons of Ethanol
Energy Gallons of Biodiesel
Energy
15 Billion 1.17 Quads 3.9 Billion 0.29 Quads
Gallons of Biofuel Energy50 Billion 3.85 Quads
Biofuel production in 2018 ~ 1.5 Q of energy to the transportation sector
Estimated Sustainable Biofuel Production in the U.S.
24
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The value of biofuels is tied to its carbon intensity (CI)Average credit prices >$50/ton over the last 3 years
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
J2013
M M J S N J2014
M M J S N J2015
M M J S N J2016
M M J S N J2017
M M J S N J2018
M M J S N J2019
M M
Volu
me
Tran
sact
ed (m
etric
tons
CO
2e)
Car
bon
Pric
e ($
/MT)
Volume of Credits Transacted (MT)
ARB Monthly Average Credit Price
https://ww3.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/dashboard/dashboard.htm
Credit$ = (C$/MT) * (CI Gasoline – CI Alternative Fuel)LCFS credits formula:
25
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Feedstock producers are missing a large revenue stream
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
J2013
M M J S N J2014
M M J S N J2015
M M J S N J2016
M M J S N J2017
M M J S N J2018
M M J S N J2019
M M
Volu
me
Tran
sact
ed (m
etric
tons
CO
2e)
Car
bon
Pric
e ($
/MT)
Volume of Credits Transacted (MT)
ARB Monthly Average Credit Price
https://ww3.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/dashboard/dashboard.htm
Assuming $80-200/MT carbon price, annual payments to the farmer range from $45-195/acre*
*Estimate assumes 30-60% reduction in feedstock CI, and that additional CI payment (i.e. $/MT tied to feedstock CI) goes to farmer.
Credit$ = (C$/MT) * (CI Gasoline – CI Alternative Fuel)LCFS credits formula:
26
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A three-stage approach to establish upstream carbon optimization incentives
• Establish ground truth in real-world conditions
• Pilot market mechanisms• Higher cost, higher resolution
1. Set a Baseline 2. Develop New Methods 3. Provide Decision Support
• Directly measure N & C flux• Increase reliability, resilience• Reduce cost and footprint• Incorporate IoT hardware
• Management Outcomes• Aggressive cost targets• System optimization• Field-level data product
27
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Program elements build off each other while individually providing valuable contributions to industry and the R&D community
Fall 2019Ground truth testing sites and
gold-standard datasets3-5 years
Winter 2019 - Spring 2020Sensor development for
emissions/storage validation~2 years
Fall 2021System solution compete for
millions in prizes2-3 trials (1/season)
Gold-Standard Data
Assess new technologies- High resolution- Open access- Production environment- Multiple regions- Grain for ethanol
Accurate Accounting
Audit outcomes - N2O emissions (CO2e)- Soil carbon storage- Deployment optimization
Grand ChallengeAdvise growers- Low-cost system solutions - Broad-acre monitoring- Agronomic Support
ARPA-E Moonshot:
Carbon-optimized feedstock
production for the bio-economy
28Three complementary tracks over 5 years
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SummaryARPA-E is advancing technologies to support a circular economy, a carbon negative economy, and a 20 gigaton carbon removal industry.
BiologicalNETs
HybridNETs
EngineeredNETs
Managing to get carbon out of the economyNegative Emission Technologies (NETs)
Managing carbon in the economyCircular new carbon strategies
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ARPA-E could be the hallmark of your career
30
CONTRIBUTE TO A BETTER ENERGY
FUTURE
JOIN OUR INNOVATIVE STARTUP CULTURE
COLLABORATE WITH OTHER EXPERTS
WORK IN DIVERSE TECH AREAS
Learn more and apply: [email protected].
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Join the team that is transforming the energy of tomorrow
31
Independent energy technology development
Program Director support Organizational support
PROGRAM DIRECTOR
Program development Active project management Thought leadership Explore new technical
areas
FELLOWTECHNOLOGY-TO-MARKET
ADVISOR
Business development Technical marketing Techno-economic analyses Stakeholder outreach
Learn more and apply: [email protected].
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Thanks for having me!
David M. Babson, Ph.D.Program Director| Advanced Research Projects Agency - EnergyU.S. Department of Energyo. 202-586-6907 | [email protected]
Contact me
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Twitter: @realDavidBabson