Adressing Floods and Droughtin GEF supported TDA/SAPs

IWC-7October 2013

Peter Bjornsen, UNEP-DHI Centre

TDA SAPVolta Basin X (X)Senegal River Basin X XLake Chad Basin X XOrange-Senqu River Basin X  Danube river Basin X XSão Francisco river Basin (DAB)

X X

Okavango River Basin X  Lake Victoria Basin X XLake Tanganyika X XLake Shkoder X  Pantanal Basin (in portuguese)

X  

Kura River Basin X  Lake Peipsi X  San Juan River Basin X  Bermejo River Basin X XDnipro River Basin X XNiger River Basin X XAmazon river basin   XTumen River Basin   X

Causes Impacts Events describedQualitatively

Monitoring

Flood events*: Above average rainfall,inapropriately used dams, unsustainable agriculture and mining, Illegal diversion of river channels for mining.Droughts :Increased water demand, deforestation,longer dry seasons,lack of transboundary coordination and efficient governance (also for floods).

Flood events: Loss of infrastructure, Loss of livelihoods, Droughts: Poverty, Increased migration,Social instability. Land degradation, Biodiversity loss. Coastal ecosystem erosion; Aquatic invasive species; Increased sedimentation,Loss of soil and vegetative cover, Deteriorating water quality.

Changes in the overall aggregate volume available, and changes in the temporal and seasonal distribution of water availability observed. Water shortages have become more intense and less predictable.

Develop and establish national/ regional land-basedactivities data and information management systemDevelop capabilities of GIS use/Monitor supply and quality of water in major rivers/

Volta Basin

Climatic variability and change

Multiple challenges

Floods Irrigation

Hydropower

Domesticwater

Drought

Why Decision Support Systems?

Provide an opportunity to embed IT and analytical tools more thoroughly in WR agencies’ workflow;

Provide a technical platform for collaboration internally and externally;

The DSS concept matches well with implementation of IWRM processes by WR agencies

Real-time

SAP

TDAScreeningand assessment

Informationmanagement

Prevention and mitigation

Climate change adaptation

Operational forecasting

Emergencymanagement

Typical Technical Frameworks of DSSs

….with an array of underlying generic tools

Linkage to observation networks and data sources;

Formulation of appropriate data collection programs;

Data processing & analysis tools; Procedures for data transfer &

sharing; Approve / quality control of data /

information

Main Components of DSSs

Assessments of current situation; Evaluating planning scenarios; Climate change impacts & adaptation; Water allocation procedures; Disaster management ;

Structured analysis and use of data; Understanding complex cause-effect relationships; Consistent scenario modelling

Process oriented models

Planning oriented models

Main Components of DSSs

Sharing of data / information ; Publishing plans / reports; Stakeholder involvement; Providing learning tools.

Tools

Scenario AnalysisScripting

Multi Criteria Analysis

Time Series ProcessingGIS

Spread Sheets WEB Publishing

Simulation codes

Data Bridges

Access Control

Optimisers Scheduling

Indicators

Visualisation

Adapters Down scaling

How does DSS fit with IWRM at river basin level ?RecognitionIdentify problems and needs

Public awarenessAssessmentsCourse of actionsDraft Planning

CoordinationReaching agreements

Final basin PlanImplementationMonitoring & evaluation