adaptive forecasting: building a case for the right digital budget
TRANSCRIPT
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Have Confidence in Your Digital Marketing Investments
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• 9 Year SEM Veteran• 1 Dog (Peanut) • Enjoys Camping & Fishing• Collects Rocks
About Derrick: The Boring Stuff
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Voted best fro in Fargo-Moorhead (2002)
About Derrick: The Good Stuff
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Most Exotic Product Sold on PPC:
Iraqi Real Estate
About Derrick: The Good Stuff
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An AugurAugurian helps modern day executives solve critical marketing challenges, both strategic and tactical, and take action.
• Organic Search (SEO)• Assessments & Audits
• Site Risk Mitigation • Paid Media (SEM)• Conversion Rate Optimization (CRO)• Measurement• Build equity in your team through education
and training.
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Adaptive Forecasting: Huh?
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“Adaptive forecasting allows you to create one forecast that speaks to a spectrum of scenarios.”
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So, what is it actually?
An annualized CPA or CPL projection across potential tactics.
A projection that assumes you, like all good marketers, will ensure that your best performing tactics are fully funded first.
0 20 40 60 80 100 120$0.00
$500.00
$1,000.00
$1,500.00
$2,000.00
$2,500.00
$3,000.00
$3,500.00
$4,000.00
$4,500.00
$5,000.00
CPA per deal
Total New Deals
CPA
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PHASE IGather Historical Data – Determine Scope
PHASE IIOutline Assumptions & Recalculate Data
PHASE IIIGraph & Communicate Results
A Simple Process With Undeniable Results
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• Find out what is available Impression Share, Total Lead Count, CPL = Good Impression Share, Total Acq. Count, CPA = Best
• Determine Scope (Digital or All Marketing?) Ask: Will this answer the questions being asked?
Phase 1 – Gather the Data!
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Phase 1 – Gather the Data!Campaign Conversions Cost/conv Search Impression Share Avg. positionPPC - Non-Brand 1234 59.11 53.64% 1.8Linkedin 5 28.28 21.87%Facebook Remarketing 15 24.67 <10%PPC - Non-Brand 93 54.3 20.74% 2.6PPC - Non-Brand 0 0 <10% 3.1GDN - Remarketing 1 556.2 85.34%Facebook Interest Targeting 14 50.63 <10%Facebook Interest Targeting 8 60.78 15.16%PPC - Brand 276 33.95 22.48% 2.8
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Make Assumptions to Forecast Performance in an Ideal World
Reasons to Calculate Assumptions:• 100% impression share• Higher ad position• Bing & Yahoo included in PPC• Mid-year analytics discoveries (or tactic didn’t run full year)• Awareness boosts from other channels• New Geographies
Phase 2 – Outline Assumptions & Recalculate
State Campaign Conversions Cost/conv Search Impr Share Avg. positionActual Non-Brand PPC - 123 1,234.40 59.11 53.64% 1.8100% Impression Share Non-Brand PPC - 123 2301.27 59.11 100% 1.8100% Impr Share + Yahoo! & Bing Non-Brand PPC - 123 2761.52 59.11 100% 1.8
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Phase 2 – Complete the Spreadsheet
• Determine Lead Count Per Row Note: You’ll want at least 15 rows• Enter in CPL/CPA Data• Determine how many tactics you’d like to include• Add calculating columns based on what you’d like to graph
Tactic Number of Leads Leads Per Row CPL Total Cost per 250 Leads Cumulative Cost Deals CPA per dealBrand 250 250 $25 $6,250 $6,250 5.4 $1,157.41Facebook LAL 500 250 $50 $12,500 $18,750 10.8 $1,736.11Facebook LAL 750 250 $55 $13,750 $32,500 16.2 $2,006.17Facebook Remarketing 1000 250 $60 $15,000 $47,500 21.6 $2,199.07Linkedin Direct Response 1250 250 $75 $18,750 $66,250 27 $2,453.70PPC Non-brand 1500 250 $100 $25,000 $91,250 32.4 $2,816.36Facebook Interest Targeting 1750 250 $160 $40,000 $131,250 37.8 $3,472.22
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Phase 3 – The Results
250500
7501000
12501500
17502000
22502500
27503000
32503500
37504000
42504500
$-
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
Total Cost per 250 Incremental Leads
Total Leads
Cost
Per
250
Lead
s
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Phase 3 – The Results
$-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000 0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Total Digital Media Cost for New Deals
Total Media Costs
Tota
l Dea
ls
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Phase 3 – The Results
0 20 40 60 80 100 120$0.00
$500.00 $1,000.00 $1,500.00 $2,000.00 $2,500.00 $3,000.00 $3,500.00 $4,000.00 $4,500.00 $5,000.00
CPA per deal
Total New Deals
CPA
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Beware!
• Wield this information wisely. Be authentic, communicate well, transparency is best.• Don’t represent this forecast as perfect!
• Take inflation into account• Be careful for seasonal tactics, use different calculation rules.• Use care when taking into account tactics that have been turned off, or analyzing
accounts that have been restructured • If keyword updates have drastically improved performance, don’t use the full year,
extrapolate the most recent data• These projections assume that you’ll run these tactics over the entire next year. If you
run all tactics regardless of CPL, and use the budget you were given for an entire year your numbers will not match.
• Optimization should bend cost curve down. • Using for sales requires historical marketing data, if you don’t have this you run the risk of
potentially being very inaccurate.
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Have Confidence