adaptation to climate change an initial view lr - aug 2013
TRANSCRIPT
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Adapta&on to Climate Change: An Ini&al View 1 August 2013 | Tim Jones | Dave McCormick
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Topics covered include: § Foresight and Future Agenda § The Context For Adapta@on § Adapta@on Policy and Plans § Business Risk § Varia@ons by Geography
§ Impact of Ci@es § Levels of Adapta@on Ac@vity § Implica@ons and Trade Offs
This document summarises views shared by several companies as part of a recent project with BSR to explore a@tudes and emerging strategies around adapta&on to climate change
Contents
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As change accelerates in an increasingly connected world, more companies are looking further ahead to beEer understand emerging opportuni&es and challenges
Foresight and Future Agenda
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Organisa&ons increasingly want to iden&fy and understand both the an&cipated and unexpected changes
so that they can be beEer prepared for the future
Foresight and Future Agenda
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The Future Agenda is the world’s largest open foresight program that looks at the big issues for 2020 so that
organisa&ons can beEer focus and s&mulate innova&on
Foresight and Future Agenda
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The Context for Adapta&on
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As we experience more frequent extreme weather, many around the world are now recognising while others are star&ng
to respond to the wider impacts of climate change
Extreme Weather
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Most organisa&ons have primarily been focusing efforts on changing behaviours and strategies in order to mi&gate the
effects of climate change and change direc&on
Mi&ga&on of Climate Change
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Much of the ini&al debate and ac&on has been around trying to keep global warming under 20C and carbon at 350 ppm – unfortunately both targets that now look unachievable
Mi&ga&on of Climate Change
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Many see that at the current rate of change, we may well hit 500ppm of CO2 concentra&on by 2050 and that, on average, the
world will be well over 40C warmer
The Big Challenge Ahead
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Although mi&ga&on is a primary focus for many, some recognise that wai&ng for its impact is not enough and so we also need to adapt to the implica&ons of climate change
Need for Adapta&on
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Adapta&on Policy and Plans
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The UNFCCC supports the formula&on and implementa&on of na&onal adapta&on plans and programs that consider
approaches to address damage associated with climate change
Adapta&on Policy and Plans
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Several governments around the world are seen to be taking a lead on changing the regulatory frameworks around adapta&on
and resilience to climate change
Adapta&on Policy and Plans
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Na&onal adapta&on plans are star&ng to drive ac&on in specific sectors and as climate is seen as a threat to na&onal
security this will push adapta&on up the agenda
Adapta&on Policy and Plans
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Business Risk
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Adapta&on to climate change is fast emerging on to the risk radars of a number of leading organisa&ons and governments
and is therefore becoming more visible to society
Business Risk
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Several organisa&ons see the three areas of climate change mi&ga&on, resilience and adapta&on through their own view of business risk such as maintaining water supply
Business Risk
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For example, food and drink companies are focusing on the pressures on crop varie&es and the need to respond to such issues as increased drought and saltwater tolerance
Business Risk
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Several organisa&ons are also recognising wider risks around such issues as workforce support, security of supply chains and
poten&al shiXs in associated consumer a@tudes
Business Risk
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For some, the worry of focusing on the immediate, short-‐term visible risk may result in ac&ons that have a longer term
nega&ve impact with unintended consequences
Business Risk
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Physical Environment Changes
Opera@onal Rules and Constraints
Social Expecta@ons and ShiPs
As a result, some leading organisa&ons are seeing adapta&on as having direct linkages to their ability to operate globally and
effec&vely serve customers, stakeholders and society
Business Risk for Adapta&on
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Varia&ons by Geography
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There is broad recogni&on that adapta&on measures are shaped by the specific context and so adapta&on efforts must be focused at the local not global generic level
Varia&ons by Geography
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Globally the impact of climate is well recognised as being unevenly distributed with some countries more exposed to
change than others
Varia&ons by Geography
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India is one loca&on where adapta&on involves trade-‐offs between such issues and clean water and energy supply with
market-‐orientated regula&on playing a key role
Varia&ons by Geography
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Insurance companies see that weather related catastrophes have tripled since 1980: In 2012 the US experienced
11 extreme events each cos&ng more that $1bn
Varia&ons by Geography
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Impact of Ci&es
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Adapta&on is at the forefront of thinking and development for all ci&es globally with organisa&ons such as the C40 and ICLEI
increasingly ac&ng as catalysts for this
Impact of Ci&es
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Already 22 of the top 50 wealthiest ci&es are prone to serious flooding which will also impact housing, poverty,
cost of energy and social breakdown
Impact of Ci&es
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The ten most ‘at risk ci&es’ globally already have combined popula&ons of over 150m and are projected by the UN to have
grown by a further 50% adding another 75m by 2025
Impact of Ci&es
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Some can envisage a situa&on where major ci&es may start to have to self-‐insure and rebuild – In the wake of hurricane Sandy
New York is just one of the first to be considering this
Impact of Ci&es
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Levels of Adapta&on Ac&vity
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While mi&ga&on of climate change is very much the focus for many, for those NGOs who are star&ng to look towards a 40C
warmer world, adapta&on has been gaining trac&on
Levels of Ac&vity
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However, some organisa&ons do not talk about adapta&on as it implies defeat on mi&ga&on, is increasingly poli&cal and may well alienate key stakeholders and customers
Levels of Ac&vity
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Even though they may not be using the term ‘adapta&on’, others are star&ng to be more open to the issues raised
by a substan&al shiX in the world’s climate
Levels of Ac&vity
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Mi&ga&on ac&on is significantly more mature in many organiza&ons and for the majority of companies it is s&ll early
days for adapta&on considera&ons
Levels of Ac&vity
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We see a matrix of different types of responses to climate change adapta&on that looks at both different levels of
adapta&on and well as levels of impact
Levels of Ac&vity
Adapt to increased intensity
and frequency of climate
events
Adapt to
impacts of climate change
Respond to climate
events
Adapt to
4 degrees warmer
Adaptation: The Context
Insurance Policy Na@onal Security
Infrastructure Business Systems Social Systems
Level of Impact
Leve
l of A
dapt
atio
n
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Many organisa&ons see adapta&on as responding to climate change related events as and when they happen – be that flooding, drought, migra&on or other socio-‐economic shiXs
Levels of Ac&vity
Adapt to increased intensity
and frequency of climate
events
Adapt to
impacts of climate change
Respond to climate
events
Adapt to
4 degrees warmer
Adaptation: The Context
Insurance Policy Na@onal Security
Infrastructure Business Systems Social Systems
Level of Impact
Leve
l of A
dapt
atio
n
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Some companies, especially in the u&li&es and logis&cs arenas, are adap&ng to increased intensity and frequency of climate
events and broader implica&ons
Levels of Ac&vity
Adapt to increased intensity
and frequency of climate
events
Adapt to
impacts of climate change
Respond to climate
events
Adapt to
4 degrees warmer
Adaptation: The Context
Insurance Policy Na@onal Security
Infrastructure Business Systems Social Systems
Level of Impact
Leve
l of A
dapt
atio
n
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A number of food and drink companies are increasingly focused on key impacts beyond their immediate fence-‐line looking across the inbound supply chain and wider business systems
Levels of Ac&vity
Adapt to increased intensity
and frequency of climate
events
Adapt to
impacts of climate change
Respond to climate
events
Adapt to
4 degrees warmer
Adaptation: The Context
Insurance Policy Na@onal Security
Infrastructure Business Systems Social Systems
Level of Impact
Leve
l of A
dapt
atio
n
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Others are moving ahead to focus on the impacts of climate change across the board and extending approaches to help local
suppliers and their communi&es be beEer prepared
Levels of Ac&vity
Adapt to increased intensity
and frequency of climate
events
Adapt to
impacts of climate change
Respond to climate
events
Adapt to
4 degrees warmer
Adaptation: The Context
Insurance Policy Na@onal Security
Infrastructure Business Systems Social Systems
Level of Impact
Leve
l of A
dapt
atio
n
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And some organisa&ons have been suppor&ng collabora&ve projects to explore how they could best enable broader societal
and eco systems to beEer adapt to climate change
Levels of Ac&vity
Adapt to increased intensity
and frequency of climate
events
Adapt to
impacts of climate change
Respond to climate
events
Adapt to
4 degrees warmer
Adaptation: The Context
Insurance Policy Na@onal Security
Infrastructure Business Systems Social Systems
Level of Impact
Leve
l of A
dapt
atio
n
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Implica&ons and Trade Offs
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There is a need for greater human adapta&on to climate change – around workforces and communi&es as well as preparing future genera&ons and changing a@tudes
Implica&ons and Trade Offs
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It is clear that as we move forward adapta&on will play an increasingly important role in defining and shaping both governmental and business a@tudes and risk strategies
Implica&ons and Trade Offs
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Although there are clear gaps around issues such as alignment between policy and business ac&ons, adapta&on will become a
significant issue for a wide range of organisa&ons
Implica&ons and Trade Offs
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Enabling long term planning for adapta&on is difficult as short-‐termism and quick win opportuni&es are focusing thinking and
priority ac&ons in many organisa&ons
Implica&ons and Trade Offs
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While some seek the financial jus&fica&on for inves&ng in adapta&on, others are seeing it as part of doing good business
where the benefit is shared by many
Implica&ons and Trade Offs
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The reality facing many is that we need to act now and this requires both a clearer view of the likely impacts of adapta&on as
well as beEer understanding the specific implica&ons
Implica&ons and Trade Offs
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For major climate change events you may have 5 years of planning but only 45 minutes to act, and then an extra 5 minutes
of &me saved is worth a lot
Implica&ons and Trade Offs
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Physical Environment Changes
Opera@onal Rules and Constraints
Social Expecta@ons and ShiPs
Recognise the Pivotal Gaps and
Challenges
Understand and Quan@fy the
Impact
Align Objec@ves for Business, Systems
and Society
Define the Local Implica@ons and
Op@ons
Establish Collabora@on on Core Ac@vi@es
Those organisa&ons seeing adapta&on as a key challenge are now looking to form partnerships to collec&vely take on the
pivotal challenges locally
Summary
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Future Agenda 84 Brook Street London W1K 5EH +44 203 0088 141 futureagenda.org [email protected]
The world’s leading open foresight program