Adaptation of agriculture sector in Adaptation of agriculture sector in the Nile Delta at farm levelthe Nile Delta at farm level

Mahmoud Medany, Samar Attaher & Ayman F. Abou-HadidCentral Laboratory for Agricultural Climate (CLAC)

The study was a part of the regional assessment of the FP6 y p gproject of:

ADAPTATION OF AGRICULTURE IN EUROPEAN REGIONS AT

ENVIRONMENTAL RISK UNDER CLIMATE CHANGEENVIRONMENTAL RISK UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE (ADAGIO)

Agriculture in the Nile Delta

• 2 4% of total area of Egypt2.4% of total area of Egypt.

• 49% of total inhabitant area of Egypt

• 8 Governorates

Agriculture in the Nile Delta …why it's a unique case?

• Has about one half of the total cultivated area (about 4.3 million Feddan).( )• Has 53% of the total population.• More than 65% contribution in the national agricultural production.More than 65% contribution in the national agricultural production.• About 93 % of the total Delta land is "old land“ (clay soil/ heavy- Medium ).• Irrigation source: NileIrrigation source: Nile • Almost fully irrigated (about 9% rainfed) • Surface irrigation systems (50% efficiency)• Surface irrigation systems (50% efficiency).• Mixed crop pattern (field crops- vegetables- fruits)• Total annual cropped area is 150 to 180 % from the total cultivated area• Total annual cropped area is 150 to 180 % from the total cultivated area.• Land acreage per ownership: small to medium (less than 0.4 ha to less than 2 ha).

T h l t diti l/ l l l• Technology: traditional/ low level• Land productivity : High

P d i L M di• Production cost : Low – Medium • Crops productivity : Medium- High • Profitability : Medium- High • Production Risk : Low

Vulnerability analyses concept•Multi-criteria analyses of vulnerability•Multi-criteria analyses of vulnerability.

• Community-based assessment

R t ti i bl d i th il t t t h t i th l bl

P i blC t Pro ariableComponents

• Representative variables used in the pilot assessment to characterize the vulnerable groups:

Proxy variableComponents

1. Climate conditions and observed changes

Proxy variableComponents

1. Land ownership

2. Crop pattern1. Natural resources

2. Soil salinity

3. Water table 3. Agricultural management

2. Crop pattern

3. Corps productivity

4. Irrigation systems4. Extreme weather events

5. Pests & disease

1 P l i d i

management5. Irrigation-water use

6. Fertilizers use1. Population density

2. Human resources

2. Agriculture lobar force

3 Rural population

7. Drainage systems

1.Finance

2 Agriculture production3. Rural population

4. Knowledge capacity 4. Economics & policy capacity

2. Agriculture-production inputs

3. Agri-products quality

4. Marketing limitations

5. Policies conflicts

The Pilot Locations

T lS l NGL iThe size of the survey sample

TotalSample NoGovs.Location

102

41BEHAIRA

North Delta 36DAKAHLIA

276

102North Delta 36DAKAHLIA

25DAMIETTA

10753GHARBIA

Middl D lt 107Middle Delta54SHARKIA

6767KALIOBIASouth Delta

Agroecosystems main features in Delta region

Sothern DeltaMiddel DeltaNorthern Delta

agroecosystem

HeavyMedium HeavyLight MediumSoil HeavyMedium- HeavyLight- MediumSoil

Medium- lowMedium- HighHigh-MediumSoil salinity

Small Large to smallMedium to smallLand ownership

- Low water quality.- Agricultural land reduction due

-Improving irrigation systems -Seasonal water shortage

-High water table.- Turn to aqua culture.

Trends

to urbanization. - Seasonal water shortage.-Low water quality.

- -Policy.-Policy -Financial and investment.limitations y-Immigration from rural to urban.- High population.- Extension service.

y-Immigration from rural to urban.- High population.- Extension service

-Policy.-Extension service.

- Urbanization.

- Poor irrigation systems.- Poor irrigation systems.- Poor irrigation systems.Socio-- Poor drainage systems.-Contradiction of agricultural policies.

- Poor drainage systems.- Shortage in expert labor.- Contradiction of agricultural

- Poor drainage systems.- Shortage in expert labor.- Contradiction of agricultural

economic conditions

policies. policies.

Field crops Vegetable crops Orchards and palms

The Pilot Locations

•Multi-criteria analysesMulti criteria analyses of vulnerability.

• Community-based assessment

• Representative i bl d i hvariables used in the

pilot assessment to characterize the

T lS l NGL iThe size of the survey sample

vulnerable groups:

TotalSample NoGovs.Location

102

41BEHAIRA

North Delta 36DAKAHLIA

276

102North Delta 36DAKAHLIA

25DAMITTA

10753GHARBIA

Middl D lt 107Middle Delta54SHARKIA

6767KALIOBIASouth Delta

Questions about ADAPTATION

1. What are the acceptable options of adaptations at farmers’ level?

2. Insurance and financial systems of adaptation?

3. Land loss fact in North Delta and land alternative dilemma?

The adaptation measures

Based onBased on…

– WP2 results (vulnerability)

P i t di– Previous studies

– Applicants and experts.

The pilot locations of adaptation assessment under WP3

(adaptation) was the same locations of vulnerability

assessment under WP2 with the same case studiesassessment under WP2, with the same case studies.

Adaptation at farmers’ levelThe most efficient justifications- according to farmers’ perception toThe most efficient justifications according to farmers perception to reduce the negative impacts of climate change (wormer and dryer climate) on cultivation systems!

77 %Changing cultivars1

) y

53 %Increasing irrigation requirements250 %Changing sowing dates333 %Ch i tt4 33 %Changing crop pattern431 %Improving drainage systems518 %M dif i l t t ti6 18 %Modifying plant protection programs.615 %Changing the current irrigation systems714 %Changing fertilization requirements8 14 %Changing fertilization requirements.810 %Using compost93 %Cultivate the land one season only10 3 %Cultivate the land one season only.105 %Replace the current fertilizers by soil conditioners.115 %Leave the current cultivated land, and move to reclaim new land.12 5 %Leave the current cultivated land, and move to reclaim new land.123 %Leave the agri-business and find other carrier.13

Adaptation at farmers’ level (Cost Benefit)Cost/ Benefit

Very low

Very highAdaptation Measures

54321 54321

Changing cultivars1

Increasing irrigation requirements2 g g q

Changing sowing dates3

Changing crop pattern4

Improving drainage systems5

Modifying plant protection programs.6

Ch i th t i i ti t7 Changing the current irrigation systems7

Changing fertilization requirements.8

Using compost9 Using compost9

Cultivate the land one season only.10

Replace the current fertilizers by soil conditioners.11

Leave the current cultivated land, and move to reclaim new land.12

Leave the agri-business and find other carrier.13

Adaptation at farmers’ level (Opportunities, Limitations & Risks)

AvailableIm

plemtK

nol

Tec h

PoHu

reso

Infras

Not available butpossible

mentation

time

owledge

evel

h. level

olicies

uman

ources

structure

Not available & impossible

Changing cultivars1

Increasing irrigation requirements2

Changing so ing dates3

5-10

<5

15-20

Changing sowing dates3

Changing crop pattern4

Improving drainage systems5

<5<5

5-10Improving drainage systems

Modifying plant protection programs.6

Changing the current irrigation systems7 10-15

<55 10

Changing fertilization requirements.8

Using compost9

<5

<5

Cultivate the land one season, and left it to rest in the second season.10

Replace the current fertilizers by soil conditioners.11

L th t lti t d l d d t l i l d12 20

10-15

5-10

Leave the current cultivated land, and move to reclaim new land.12

Leave the agri-business and find other carrier.13

>20

>20

Insurance and Financial Resources of Adaptation

Options to overcome the losses in agriculture production due to unfavorable weather conditions in the future & to offer the needed financial resources for adaptation.

42 %The government should handle the whole problem, and present the procedures, solutions and compensations.

1

25 %Establishing a special farmers’ cooperati e f nd from no b cooperation2 25 %Establishing a special farmers’ cooperative-fund from now by cooperation between the farmers and their neighbors.

2

9 %Establishing a new tax on crops prices.3 g p p8 %Establishing a special insurance system in insurance companies.45 %Sharing in a governmental insurance box for future environmental hazards. 5 g g

Insurance and Financial Resources of Adaptation (Cost Benefit)

Cost/ BenefitVery low

Very highAdaptation Measures

54321 54321

The government should handle the whole problem, and present the procedures, solutions and compensations.

1

Establishing a special farmers’ cooperative-box from now by cooperation between the farmers and their neighbors.

2

E t bli hi t i3 Establishing a new tax on crops prices.3

Establishing a special insurance system in insurance companies.

4companies.Sharing in a governmental insurance box for future environmental hazards.

5

Insurance and Financial Resources of Adaptation (Opportunities, Limitations & Risks)

Available

Implet

Knol

TecPoHres

Infras

Available

Not available butpossible em

entationtim

eow

ledge level

ch. level

olicies

Hum

an sources

structure

Not available & impossible

The government should handle the whole problem, and present the procedures, solutions and compensations.

1

Establishing a special farmers’ cooperative box from now by2

15-20

Establishing a special farmers’ cooperative-box from now by cooperation between the farmers and their neighbors.

2

Establishing a new tax on crops prices.3 <5

5-10

g p pEstablishing a special insurance system in insurance companies.

4 <5

Sharing in a governmental insurance box for future environmental hazards.

5 5-10

h i l i

Adaptation Results SummaryChanging cultivarsChanging crop patternEstablishing adaptation tax on crops prices (less than 2% of the price).Establishing adaptation tax on crops prices (less than 2% of the price).

Uncertainty•Scientific knowledge limitations•Physiological limits•Food security constrainsFood security constrains•Inhabitants’ national distribution balance.•Farmers’ income.•Financial resources•National income per capita.•Standard of livingStandard of living.•Marketing constrains.•The required fund for adaptation may exceed the level of adaptation tax.

On-farm irrigation in Egypt…why it's a unique case?98

100•Egypt is a limited water-resource

60

80

100

ea (%

)

Egypt is a limited water resourcecountry.•95% of the cultivated area is

d fi d i i ti t 49

7

28

10

37 41

24 2822

813

20 188

1620

40

60

Irrig

ated

areunder fixed irrigation system.

•85% from total available waterconsumed in agriculture.

7 10 8 8

0

Alb

ania

Alg

eria

Cyp

rus

Egyp

t

Fran

ce

Gre

ece

Isra

el

Italy

eban

on

Liby

a

Mal

ta

Mor

occo

Spai

n

Syria

Tuni

sia

Turk

ey

g

•Mixed crop pattern (field crops-vegetables- fruits)

A

Le M

Surface Irri Sprinkler Irri Microirrigation

• Total annual cropped area is 150to 180 % from the total cultivatedarea

80

100p garea.

40

60

Are

a %

0

20

0

Cyp

rus

Egyp

t

Leba

non

Liby

a

Mal

ta

Mor

occo

Syria

Tuni

sia

Turk

ey

CC projections:GCM d H dCM3GCM used: HadCM3

IPCC's SRES scenarios [A1, A2, B1 and B2]

Air-temp downscaled by "Kriging" local interpolation method by ESRI

ArcMapTM 9.0, according to the Egyptian coordinates.p , g gyp

"CropWat" Water requirements calculations are based on FAO modified

P M t ith th d f l l ti f t i tiPenman-Monteith methods for calculating reference crop evapotranspiration

(Smith, 1992).

CO concentration in ppm

2100s2050s2025sCurrent 732542433370A1

CO2 concentration in ppm

732542433370A1532489426370B1

DSSAT experiments

Old landWinter Wheat- Broad Bean- Tomato- Potato

Summer Maize- Cotton- Tomato- Potato

On-farm irrigation system Eff. %Irrigation efficiency of the studied irrigation systems under simulations

-Traditional surface irrigation 50-Improved surface irrigation 75- Sprinkler irrigation 70- Sprinkler irrigation 70- Drip irrigation 85

Change in crop-water requirements [%]

16

Wheat [W] Broad Bean [W]

12

14

]

Maize [S] Maize [N]Tomato [W] Tomato [S]Tomato [N] Potato [W]Potato [S] Potato [N]

10

12

s ch

ange

[%] Potato [S] Potato [N]

8

equi

rem

ents

4

6

Cro

p-w

ater

re

2

C

02025 2050 2100 2025 2050 2100

A1 B1A1 B1

Change in WUE [%]20

Change in WUE [%]

0

10

20

-10

e [%

]

-30

-20

WU

E ch

ange

-50

-40

Wheat [W] Broad Bean [W]M i [S] M i [N]

-70

-60

Maize [S] Maize [N]Tomato [W] Tomato [S]Tomato [N] Potato [W]Potato [S] Potato [N]

-702025 2050 2100 2025 2050 2100

A1 B1

ConclusionUsing water-efficient practices and technology are promising options toUsing water efficient practices and technology are promising options to

reduce agricultural sector vulnerability to climate change.

iff bi i b diff l l f i d fDifferent combinations between different levels of improved surfaceirrigation with applying deficit irrigation could improve the capacity of surfaceirrigation system in old land in order to overcome the negative impacts ofirrigation system in old land in order to overcome the negative impacts ofclimate change.

i b d ffi i d iImproving crop pattern based on WUE concept …efficient adaptationmeasure.

Improving WUE should couple with socioeconomical factors.

i i i i b l i i h fLow-power requirement irrigation systems … better selections in the future.

agricultural activities

inin

“Cli t Ch Ri k“Climate Change Risk

Management in Egypt”

project

Program Description

Climate ChangeProgramg

Mitigation Adaptation

CDMForecasting

&Vulnerability

&SEC Component CDMComponent

& IWRM

Component

&AdaptationComponent

Vulnerability and Adaptation ComponentVulnerability and Adaptation Component

Establish an effective Adaptation Policy Framework in theEstablish an effective Adaptation Policy Framework in the water and agriculture sectors.

Implementation of a communication strategy to increase awareness of climate change risks and promote integration of adaptation principles into national development plansadaptation principles into national development plans. …

Adapting agriculture and fisheries policies and practices to changing climate.

Developing of stress tolerant crop varieties and optimizedDeveloping of stress tolerant crop varieties and optimized cropping pattern that cope better with harsh climatic conditions

Address optimal use of OFWM under climate change.

JP Outputs: 2 2 2 Adaptation of Agriculture Sector

IFADJP Outputs: 2.2.2 Adaptation of Agriculture SectorSub-activity [1]: Stresses tolerant varieties

First Year ActionsFirst Year Actions

• Identifying the PILOT LOCATIONS of the study, representing different agriculture systems in Egypt.systems in Egypt.

• Collecting HISTORICAL DATA of weather conditions, SOIL AND WATER RESOURCES of the locations of the studyRESOURCES of the locations of the study.

• Selection of tolerant varieties of the strategic FIELD CROPS.• Conducting two seasons' FIELD STUDIES to evaluate the selected varieties.

• ANALYZING the results of crops field-studies under CLIMATE CHANGEANALYZING the results of crops field studies under CLIMATE CHANGE CONDITIONS

JP Outputs: 2 2 2 Adaptation of Agriculture Sector

IFADJP Outputs: 2.2.2 Adaptation of Agriculture SectorSub-activity [2]: knowledge dissemination to stakeholders regarding to stresses tolerant varieties

First Year Actions

• Identifying the STAKEHOLDERS GROUPS.

• Establishment of indicated contacts to STAKEHOLDERS GROUPS.

• Establish oriented INFORMATION PACKAGES to different targeted stakeholders groups.

JP Outputs: 2 2 2 Adaptation of Agriculture Sector

IFADJP Outputs: 2.2.2 Adaptation of Agriculture SectorSub-activity [2]: knowledge dissemination to stakeholders regarding to stresses tolerant varieties

Fi t Y A tiFirst Year Actions

• Identifying the current major CROP PATTERN from historical agricultural statisticsstatistics.

• Identify the key parameters and FORCES DRIVING the annual changes in CROP PATTERNPATTERN.

• Study the trend of change in cultivated area by using REMOTE SENSING y g y gtechniques.

• Prepare the data sets of future climate conditions by using GCM AND/ OR RCM p y gfuture climate data sets.

JP Outputs: 2.1 Adaptation strategies and practices integrated into climate sensitive development policies, plans, and programmes. FAO

First Year Actions

1 A i ti POLICIES ( li t i d fi )1. Assess existing POLICIES (climate screening and proofing):

2. Carry out macro-economic analysis for the cost of climate changeAssessment of climate change impacts on FOOD SECURITY.Assessment of climate change impacts on agricultural PESTS and DISEASES.

3. Identify and describe UNCERTAINTIES, COST/BENEFITS, RISKS,opportunities for potential adaptation measures

4. Select the most VULNERABLE regional issues in various AGRO-ECOSYSTEMS and identify related potential problems. [Identify the spatial COS S S a d de t y e ated pote t a p ob e s. [ dentify the spatialdistribution of risk and vulnerability of agriculture system in Egypt.]

5. Describe of the related AGRO-ECOSYSTEMS.[Describe of the major agroecosystems of the Egyptian agriculture ][Describe of the major agroecosystems of the Egyptian agriculture.]

JP Outputs: 2 2 2 Adaptation of Agriculture Sector

FAOJP Outputs: 2.2.2 Adaptation of Agriculture Sector

First Year ActionsFirst Year Actions

1. Identify three PILOT LOCATIONS in represent different AGRICULTURAL regions/SYSTEMS in Eg ptAGRICULTURAL regions/SYSTEMS in Egypt.

2. Prepare the data sets required for simulation experiments.

3. Specify DEFICIT IRRIGATION (DI) management levels andrecommendations that could be applied under different agriculturalpp gsystems in Egypt.

4. Conducting a two seasons- season field studies to investigate the impact4. Conducting a two seasons season field studies to investigate the impactof DEFICIT IRRIGATION (DI) treatments on the agricultural productionparameters

Th kThank you

www.clac.edu.eg/green