actual status of gulf of riga · western coast of the gor 112 11.26 9.013 ↘ low central part of...

Solveiga KadiķeLatvian Institute of Aquatic Ecology

Actual status of Gulf of Rigaand its catchment area in Estonia and Latvia

Network of monitoring sites in Baltic Sea incl. Gulf of Riga:

starting from ca. 1956,

current network:from 1970-ies

State marine monitoring programmes

Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD)2008/56/EC

Legislative framework for assessment

Source:http://www.dcsmm-d4.fr/la-directive-cadre-strategie-pour-le-milieu-marin-dcsmm?lang=en

11 descriptors of GES (good environmental status)Descriptor 5 – eutrophication

Human-induced eutrophication is minimised, especially adverse effects thereof, such as losses in biodiversity, ecosystem degradation, harmful algae

blooms and oxygen deficiency in bottom waters…

Two indicators of GES for N:- dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN)(winter concentrations (January-March))

……

- total nitrogen (Ntot – inorganic + organic)(annual average concentrations)

Legislative framework for assessment

Long-term average winter concentrations of

dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN)(based on SMHI and KESE, 2019 data)

Indicators of GES for N – trends

Average winter concentrations of DIN, μmol·L-1, Latvia


Water object Limit valuePeriod

TrendConfidence level of

trend assessment2007-2011 2012-2016

Western coast of the GoR 112 11.26 9.013 ↘ Low

Central part of the GoR 5.21 13.82 12.25 ↘ Low

Eastern coast of the GoR 112 26.43 - - Low

Transitional waters4 142 32.30 17.20 ↘ Low

Open part of the Baltic Sea 2.51 3.32 3.34 ←→ Low

Coastal part of the Baltic Sea 82 19.08 12.083 ↘ Low

1 HOD 39-20122 Directive 2000/60/EC3 Based on one-year data4 Influenced by rivers Lielupe, Daugava and Gauja

Average winter concentrations of DIN, μmol·L-1, Estonia


1 Stoicescu , Lips, Lips, 20172 HELCOM (HOD 39-2012)3 based on 2007 data4 based on 2012 data

Water objectTarget

value

period

2007-2011

period

2012-2016Trend

2017 and

2018

Gulf of Riga, coastal water body 7.41 5.05 12.01 ↗ 18.40

Pärnu Bay, coastal water body 15.51 20.943 37.864 ↗ -

Gulf of Riga, open part 5.22 6.61 9.80 ↗ 12.33

Long-term average annual concentrations of

total nitrogen (Ntot)(based on SMHI and KESE, 2019 data)


Average annual concentrations of Ntot , μmol·L-1, Latvia


1 HOD 39-20122 Directive 2000/60/EC3 Based on one-year data4 Influenced by rivers Lielupe, Daugava and Gauja

Water objectLimit

value

Long term data (SMHI)

Trend

Conf.

level

of ass.

Monitoring data, 2018 (LIAE)

Season

Periodspring summer autumn

2007-2011 2012-2016

Western coast of GoR 35.62 33.2 31.73 ←→ Low 33.0–45.532.9–44.634.1–36.6

Eastern coast of GoR 35.62 43.3 - - -

Central part of GoR 281 32.4 31.8 ←→ Low 24.7–41.328.4–39.932.9–35.1

Transitional waters 4 44.12 47.2 45.9 ←→ Low 37.4–49.132.6–41.0 -

Coast of Baltic Sea 27.52 30.2 - - - 19.7–24.1 24,2–37.3 26.8–40.8

Average annual concentrations of Ntot , μmol·L-1, Estonia


1 Minister of the Environment Regulation No. 44 “Procedure for formation of bodies of groundwater and list of bodies of groundwater whose status category must be determined, status categories for bodies of groundwater, values of quality indicators corresponding to status categories and procedure for determining status categories” (28.07.2009)

2 HELCOM 38-2017

Water object Limit value 2007-2011 2012-2016 trend2017 and

2018

Gulf of Riga, coastal water body≤ 19.21

for good class28.26 23.53 ↔ 29.39

Gulf of Pärnu, coastal water body≤ 23.61

for good class34.52 29.61 ↘ 27.05

Gulf of Riga, open part of see 282 27.75 24.58 ↘ 26.88

Largest rivers:Daugava

(60% total riverine load of nutrients)

Lielupe,Gauja,Pärnu, Salaca

M. Laznik et.al, Journal of Marine Systems 23 1999

Riverine loads from the catchment area

Gulf of Riga catchment area


Influence of largest rivers Daugava, Lielupe and

Gauja

in transition zone of GoR,

LIAE monitoring data, Ntot, summer 2018

Values agreed in 2013(HELCOM, 2013; Svendsen et al., 2018)

HELCOM requirements for loads:


Baltic Sea Sub-basinMaximum Allowable

Inputs, Ntot, tonnes

Reference inputs

1997-2003, Ntot,

tonnes

Needed reductions,

Ntot, tonnes

Gulf of Riga 88 417 from which

88 417 0EST: LV:

ca. 13 000 ca. 54 000

Baltic Proper 325 000 423 921 98 921

Load from Latvia (Daugava, Lielupe, Gauja, Salaca and Irbe), range 36–88 kT/yrRed line – – – – – MAI

(LEGMC data)


Load from Estonia (Pärnu river) (Estonian Environment Agency, 2018))

MAI for Estonia: 13 kT/yr


Algae (phytoplankton) are primary consumers of nutrients:concentrations of chlorophyll (left) a and biomass of phytoplankton (right):

assessment: form very bad to moderateSource: EL merestrateegia raamdirektiivi (2008/56/EÜ) kohane merekeskkonna seisundihinnang teemadel eutrofeerumine ja hüdrograafilisedmuutused (D5 ja D7), Stoicescu , Lips, Lips, 2017

MSFD – other indicators of GES

Possible changesImplementation of baseline scenario for

achievement of GES

Baseline scenario for eutrophication –measures set in River Basin Management Plans:

Directive 2010/75/EU – for industrial emissions (incineration of waste)

Directive 91/676/EEC – for nitrates of agricultural origin Directive 91/271/EEC – for treatment of waste water

HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan – load reduction targets, recommendations, etc.

Modelled changes in winter DIN and DIP concentrations, surface water layer of the central part of Baltic Sea

grey lines – loads are maintained at the level of 1997–2003

red – required reduction of loads is carried out

dashed line - - - - - – target concentration

Possible changesImplementation of baseline scenario

Source: Eutrophication status of the Baltic Sea 2007-2011, HELCOM, 2014

Effect of climate changes on Baltic Sea

Large global warming potential of nitrogen compounds contribute to global warming and climatechange (GWP for N2O 265 x > CO2, for NOx (have indirect impact) GWP is not clear yet)

Negative effects:

climate becoming warmer – number of storms affecting the coastline of Gulf of Riga will go up –

more frequent and intense storms with increased wind speeds, increasing the risk of sea surge and coastal erosion;

increasing the average sea level, which in turn increases the risk of floods;

warmer and shorter winter – the ice-floor period will be significantly reduced – impact ofstorms, impact on ecosystems (birds, predators etc.)

Positive effects:

effects on agricultural production are expected to be positive for crop yield, especially to wintercrops. Positive effects are also expected for forest management and biodiversity due to longergrowing seasons and shorter winters with fewer days of snow on the ground. (BACC II)

Source: Jūras krasti Latvijā, http://baltijaskrasti.lv/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/Janis-Lapinskis-_Juras-krasti.pdf

Climate changesEffect of major storms

Coastal erosion and accumulation zones

(1992-2011)

red to brown zones = erosion

green = accumulation

Photo: E.Kadiķis

Thank you! Aitäh! Tak! Paldies! Questions?

actual status of gulf of riga · western coast of the gor 112 11.26 9.013 ↘ low central part of...

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