Arctic Futures:Possible Scenario Approaches from SRES to RCPs and SSPs

Nebojsa NakicenovicDeputy Director General and Deputy CEOInternational Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisProfessor of Energy EconomicsVienna University of Technology

AMAP-IIASA Arctic Scenarios WorkshopIIASA, Laxenburg – 19-20 May 2014

2014 #2Nakicenovic

Arctic Shipping Routes1979-2009

Source: Smith & Stephenson, 2012

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Arctic Shipping RoutesRCP 4.5 2006-2015 RCP 8.5

Source: Smith & Stephenson, 2012

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Arctic Shipping RoutesRCP 4.5 2040-2059 RCP 8.5

Source: Smith & Stephenson, 2012

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“Great Transformations are driven by ‘ultimate’ rather than

by ‘proxy’ drivers’...” (consistency)

Source: After Paul Raskin, 2002

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Proximate and Ultimate Drivers

Ultimate Drivers

Knowledge and Understanding

Power Structure

CultureValues and Needs

Proximate Drivers

Population Economy Technology Governance

Source: Paul Raskin, 2002

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Schematic Illustration of Alternative Scenario Formulations

Models

Stories

Scenarios

Quantitativ

e

Qualitativ

e

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3 million entries on Internet

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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

IPCC SRES and TAR

Technology is at least asimportant driving force ofGHG emissions aspopulation and economicGrowth (SRES).

Innovative technology is animportant driving force ofa broad range of GHGatomspheric stabilizationlevels over the next 100years or more (TAR).

Nakicenovic #10 2014

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

gIPCC SRES Storylines and ScenariosIPCC SRES Storylines and Scenarios

Population Low High MediumHigh Very-h Medium LowEconomy and Technology

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GDP Growth Rates and Affluence

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2

4

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100 1000 10000 100000GDP per capita, US(1990)$

India

Ann

ual g

row

th ra

te o

f GD

P, p

erce

nt

China JapanChina,

Taiwan

Germany

Italy

OECD

REFs

DCs

Case B

Case A

Case A

Case CA2

A1

B1

B2

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

Global Mean Temperature ChangeSix illustrative SRES scenarios, full range

s

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHNGE (IPCC)

Surface Temperature ChangeAOGCM projections for illustrative SRES scenarios

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400

450

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4006008001000120014001600

CO2-equivalent concentration in 2100, ppmv

Cum

ulat

ive

Syst

em C

osts

(tril

lion$

)

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Cum

ulat

ive

Emis

sion

s (G

tCeq

.)Emissions and Costs

2000-2100

Emissions

Costs

A2r B1

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

Integrated Assessment FrameworkSRES, TAR and FAR+

Socio-EconomicDevelopment

Paths

Climate Change

Impacts Vulnerabilities

EmissionsM

itiga

tion

Adaptation

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

Integrated Assessment FrameworkThe Parallel Process for Scenario Development

Socio-EconomicDevelopment

Paths

Climate Change

ImpactsVulnerabilities

EmissionsM

itiga

tion

AdaptationConcentrationsRevised Fluxes

RevisedDevelopment

Paths

RCPs SSPs

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Aspen, 2006

IAMC Meeting Tsukuba, Japan15 – 16 September 2009

19 IIASA authors & reviewers plus key roles in Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) datasets that underpin Fifth Assessment

IPCC FIFTH ASSESSMENT REPORT

21Conceptual framework and substance of

RCPs and SSPs in 3 special issues

MESSAGE(IIASA)

AIM(NIES)

GCAM(PNNL)

IMAGE(PBL)

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1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Glo

bal C

O2

emis

sion

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gC)

-5

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30IPCC Category IRPC 8.5RPC 6.0RPC 4.5RPC 2.6GEA (SE4ALL)

Global CO2 Emissions

RCP 8.5

RCP 4.5

RCP 6.0

RCP 2.6

Peak by 2020

reductions of 35-75% by 2050

almost zero or negative in the long term

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Global Mean Surface Temperature

Source: IPCC WGI, 2013

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Unified (re-ordered) SSP scheme SSPs aim at covering the range of plausible combinations

of mitigative and adaptive capacity (in the baseline)

Decreasing Adaptive Capacity

Increasing Sensitivity

Baselin

e Em

ission

Decreasing Mitigatio

n Ca

pacity

SSP 1 SSP 4

SSP 3SSP 5

SSP 2

INTEGRATED ANALYSIS FOR IPCC AR5+RCPs(Complete)

CMIP5(Complete)

Refined after community review

Under way

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Interpreting & Using RCPs & SSPs

Great achievement is “community building”

A small scenario set needed by most users

How can scenarios be used and adapted

Creative and simple meta-narrative and logic

Pertinent interpretation of drivers and outcomes

Qualitative and quantitative “down-scaling”

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Steampunk Arctic Explorer

Source: Kingery, 2014

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Permafrost Areas Endangered

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Challenges in the Arctic

Arctic oil and gas

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Present Atmosphere

~800 PgC

PreindustrialAtmosphere

~500 PgC

Coal~ 10,000 PgC

Biomass~430-460

PgCN. Gas

~190–240 PgC

Oil~180–280

PgC

Unconv. Oil~300-400

PgC

Unconventional Gas

~900-2900 PgC

Gas Hydrates~28,000

PgC

HistorcialEmissions~500 PgC

Cumulative Emissions for 2oC

StabilizationCarbon Storage Potential

~400-1500 PgC

Source: GEA, 2012

~500 PgC

Gas Hydrates (Arctic Only)~5000 PgC

Arctic Gas~26 PgC

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Arctic Pipelines

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Gas blowouts from permafrost in West Siberia

Fire when drilling monitoring well Permafrost gas bubbling around production well

Geohazards from Hydrates

Gas production well column

Source: Gasprom, 208

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GAS TORCH FROM SHALLOW PERMAFROST AT WELL 62-P-2 (BOVANENKOVO FIELD,YAMAL PENINSULA) FROM DEPTH 64 M WHEN TESTING

Geohazards from Hydrates

Source: Gasprom, 208

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SuperGrid and MagLev Trains