ACPST/GCSP Professional Training CourseEmerging Threats to Human Security in Africa

Group Work: What Will Be the Greatest Threats to Human Security in Africa in the

Next 25 Years?

Group 3 Celine, Custodio, Claude, Elias, Hadgembes,

Jaime and Raheemat11th May 2012

Risk Assessment and Scenario Deve. : Brainstorming and Frequency Table

1 Religion S.GBV Regional Blocs

Poor Gov Climate Change

2 Poor Gov

Pop Growth Climate Change

Inequality Globalization

3 Poor Gov

Ethnicity Religion Globalization ClimateChange

4 EnvSecurity

FoodSecurity

Community Security

Political Security

Organized Crimes

5 Climate Change

Poverty, Diseases Hunger

PoorGov

DemographicChange

Organized Crimes

6 Poor Gov

World Trade Regime

Trans National Organized Crimes

ClimateChange

Non Rep ofAfrica in UNSC P5

7 ElectoralViolence

Drug Trafficking

Piracy Terrorism Climate Change

Top Five Threats

• Poor Governance• Climate Change ( debate on Env

Management)• Transnational Organized Crimes• Unfair World Trade Regime• Non Representation of Africa in the

UNSC P5

Prioritizing RisksHigh

IMPACT

Low

High ImpactLow Probability

•Trans National Organized Crimes•Unfair World Trade Regime•Non Representation in UNSC P5

High ImpactHigh Probability

•Poor Governance•Climate Change

Low ImpactLow Probability

Low ImpactHigh Probability

Probability High

Further Risk Assessment

IMPACT

Very High

Unfair World Trade Regime

•Climate Change •Poor Gov

High Non Representation of Africa in UNSC P5

Trans National Organized Crimes

Medium

Low

Very Low

Unlikely Probably Possible Likely Very Likely

Probability

Governance vs Climate Change• Good Governance will reduce the impacts of Climate Change

Important Notes• Governance: the process of decision-making and the process by

which decisions are implemented (or not implemented).• Government is one of the actors in governance. Other actors involved

in governance vary depending on the level.• All actors other than government and the military are grouped

together as part of the "civil society." • No man is good enough to govern another man without that other's

consent. ~Abraham Lincoln. • The way people in democracies think of the government as

something different from themselves is a real handicap. And, of course, sometimes the government confirms their opinion. ~Lewis Mumford, in Anne Chisholm, Philosophers of the Earth: Conversations with Ecologists, 1972.

• Freedom would be meaningless without security in the home and in the streets

Nelson Mandela, April 27 1995

Poor Governance• Corruption• Mis-management of

Diversity• Undemocratic Electoral

Regimes /Transitions• Religious Radicalism• Lack of Transparency and

Accountability• Impunity• Poor Civil-Military

Relationship• Visionless leadership

• Foreign Aid Dependency• Economic Dependency• Neo Colonialism• Fiscal Indiscipline• High Underemployment

and Unemployment• Mismanagement of

Demographic Trends• Inequalities (inc Gender)• Mismanagement of the

Environment and Biodiversity

• ETC

Dominant Risk: Poor GovernanceAnalysis

Local Impact• Poor Service Delivery• Weak Govt. Institutions • Weak Opposition/Low Pol

Participation• Weak Civil Society• Under Development• Instability (Pol. Soc and Econ)• Conflict • Impunity/Injustice• Unemployment and

Underemployment• Poverty• Inequalities (inc Gender) etc

Wider Consequences• Lack of Respect• Alienation and• Marginalization• Under Development• Instability• Lack of Credibility

ResponsePreventive Measures National or Multi-lateral

Sensitization/ Political Awareness of the Public

National

Institutional Reforms National

Gov and National Budget Monitoring

National

True Separation of Power National

Strengthening of Opposition National and Multi-lateral

Broadening of Political Space (Good vs Bad People)

National

Constitutional Reforms National and Multi-lateral

Strengthening and coordination of AU, RECs and other Intergovernmental Orgs

National and Multi-lateral

Peer Review and Monitoring Multi-lateral

The African ChallengeThe Challenge•Despite increasing democracy and stability in sub-Saharan Africa, corruption and conflict remain serious barriers to ending extreme poverty on the continent. In addition to the human and psychological toll corruption and conflict take on African populations, they also cost money -- the continent loses around $148 billion each year as a result of corruption alone (approximately one quarter of the region's GDP) .

Opportunity•The responsibility and the greatest ability to improve governance and security lie with Africa's own leaders, but donor countries also have a role to play in promoting and supporting accountability, transparency and stability.

AMESEGNALEHU