ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS1 Information provided by National Climatic Data Center2 Courtesy of Thomas W. Swetnam3 Courtesy of Dr. Timothy J. Brown, CEFA 4 National Seasonal Assessment Workshop Final Report, 28 Mar – 1 Apr 2005; workshop

conducted by The Climate Ecosystem and Fire Application Program at the Desert Research Institute in Reno, Nevada, along with the National Predictive Services Group, the University of Arizona, and NOAA’s Office of Global Programs

5 Courtesy of Intelligence-Predictive Services at the Nat. Interagency Coordination Center

Addressing the Impact of Climate Change on Wildland Fires

Margaret R. McCalla, Mary M. Cairns, and Mark J. Welshinger DOC/NOAA, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (OFCM)

OFCM-SPONSORED NATIONAL

WILDLAND FIREWEATHER NEEDS

ASSESSMENT

StakeholdersFunctionalAreas

PotentialResults

From Early 1900s Through 1980: Decreasing Trend of # Sites Reporting Fire

Fire Policy: Suppression (more fuel)2

Drier than Normal1 Warmer than Normal1

Increasing Trend of the 10-Year Running Median of Area Burned3

Better understanding of:

• Fire weather needs• Gaps in weather information & services for wildland fire and prescribed fire

decision making processes• Framework needed to fill gaps in capabilities

• Data Collection• Modeling / Prediction• Products / Services• Training / Education• Information Dissemination• User Response• Research• Socioeconomic

Impacts

• Federal, Local, State• e.g., DOI (BLM, NPS, FWS), USDA (USFS), BIA, DOC, DOT, DHS, EPA, DOD, NASA, HHS

• Academic• e.g., Universities, Training Centers

• Private / Industry• e.g., Timber / lumber, insurance, building / construction

• Trade Organizations

Wildland Fire Impacts

• Loss of Life• Economics (e.g., damage to personal / business property)• Public Health & Air Quality• Landscape Restoration• Transportation• Ecosystems (e.g., water, wildlife, species composition)

In 2003, wildland fires in Southern California claimed 22 lives, destroyed 3,600 homes, burned nearly 740,000 acres of land, and caused more than $2 billion in property damage.

Outlook for National Significant Fire Potential for 2005 Fire Season4

Fire Weather and Climate Forecasts for Fire Managersand

Other Stakeholders

• The National Oceanographic & Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service and Interagency Wildland Fire Agencies provide a variety of weather products and

services for fire managers and other stakeholders

Weather and climate information is used in planning and executing wildland fire policy, processes, and procedures. Examples include:

• Are all the weather and climate needs of fire managers and other stakeholders being met? Can weather / climate services do more?

OFCM-sponsored National Wildland Fire Weather Needs Assessment

Updated Seasonal Fire Potential Outlook5

More Fuel